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Something weird is happening. Russian casualties are at levels not seen since April. 7 day rolling average is still higher than that, but in a few days of 1000 casualties a day, it will be there as well. Total land-based equipment losses are at levels not seen since February. Tank losses are...

Not to mention that many Sec. of State had done the same thing, but for some odd reason, only Clinton was investigated. Odd, that.

Interesting article in the Economist on the capital sentence carried out against Kirillov. https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/12/17/the-killing-of-a-russian-general-shows-ukraines-spies-remain-lethal Specifically, rumors about frictions inside Ukrainian services. Keeping fingers crossed...

These days, I try to not to follow the news too closely, largely to keep my sanity. As a result, I have not heard new things about Syrian mass graves. But I know that the Assad regime did enjoy their mass executions, and I know from history that there's really no upper limit to their size...

Remember that picture a while back from a man holding a trident insignia near the Kremlin? Looks like Budanov wasn't messing around. I'm pretty sure no one in Putin's circle is a true believer, so I'm wondering who will try to step back into an early retirement.

Shit like that is why I ditched Santa very quickly. God followed along pretty soon as well, because I couldn't explain to my kid why God liked some kids to be poor, disabled, hungry, and dead, but others not, and why the difference seemed to revolve a lot around how much money their parents had...

Also, video of the attack on the fuel train: https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3ldem4u2ark23 If the videos are already on the linked Telegram channels, I apologize - I refuse to install it and so can't see the videos on the web interface.

Good thread that explains why the two tankers sank at the same time: https://bsky.app/profile/chriso-wiki.bsky.social/post/3ldeqjuzspk2s They were river tankers who were never supposed to be out in big seas to begin with, and were also way past their service limit. More signs that Russia is...

I can't watch the Telegram video, but here's a BSky video of the Su-30 torching: https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3ldb6k33nos23 I'm surprised they didn't try to burn the engines out. Seems the easiest place to get fire into the plane. Then again, that's where fire normally is, so...

Speaking of North Korean troops... this is apparently what they look like in assault mode somewhere in the Kursk area. https://bsky.app/profile/wartranslated.bsky.social/post/3ldbk7cuan22u Supposedly they've also been used in the Pokrovsk direction. I wonder how many troops Kim has available to...

Yeah, the comment from Zelenskyy is puzzling, to be charitable. If you have manpower issues, you fix those by mobilizing and providing training. You don't need to send them to the front right away. Instead, you can get them basic proficiency on what you think is incoming. That's ideally 6 months...

I think there are a lot of things working together here. 1) NK is sending real troops in real numbers. I haven't seen confirmed numbers, but rumors are that there is a second batch that has been sent in. They're getting real stuff in return: Mig-29s, goats, and (probably) nuclear and ballistic...

Russia in another pause. https://lookerstudio.google.com/u/0/reporting/dfbcec47-7b01-400e-ab21-de8eb98c8f3a/page/p_c5qlea6e4c?s=ry-bX2eFilo Unusually, this pause in meat assaults is reflected across all losses: APVs, tanks, vehicles, even artillery...

I wouldn't dismiss the idea out of hand. I went on a photo safari for my honeymoon a long time ago, and I was amazed at what the guides were able to spot and identify. A small brown lizard on the road in the dark while doing about 10/15 mph. A bird about 100 yards away that flashed across the...

So apparently, a cargo plane already did go down in an urban area, and while no one is certain, it does look like Russia probably had its hands in it. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/nov/25/dhl-cargo-plane-crashes-near-lithuania-airport Due to sheer luck, only one person on the crew...

I like lookerstudio because it lets you pick arbitrary time frames and granularity. It also adds in a variety of sources, like Perpetua and Oryx.

Andrew Perpetua has been doing absolutely crazy work doing exactly that. Check out the numbers here: https://lookerstudio.google.com/u/0/reporting/dfbcec47-7b01-400e-ab21-de8eb98c8f3a/page/p_32ti8mbsgd?s=ry-bX2eFilo Look for the category "Tracked Garden Shed". Something else I learned from...

My understanding is that APCs are being replaced by armored cars (sometimes even just cars), which I think is counted under the category "vehicles". Not sure though. But it is supported by the data released so far on Russian losses. Here's what I use for tracking these things...

Agreed. I've been saying for a while now that if Ukraine can last long enough, it will end the war by walking through empty trenches. I have to admit though that I didn't think it could end on the razor's edge of neither Russians nor Ukrainians having the manpower to dislodge the last...

Thanks for pointing that out. Another reason I'm not buying his numbers. There's no way that the monthly KIA numbers from the first two years of the war are the same as in the last 9 months. Just to contrast: the first year of the war consisted of lightning advances on both sides with limited...