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Proposed referendum on the Brexit withdrawal agreement

(Redirected from Second Brexit referendum)

A referendum on the Brexit withdrawal agreement, also referred to as a "second referendum",[a] a "rerun", a "people's vote",[b] or a "confirmatory public vote", was proposed by a number of politicians and pressure groups as a way to break the deadlock during the 2017–19 Parliament surrounding the meaningful vote on the Brexit deal.

Following the invocation of Article 50 to begin Brexit negotiations, most proposals for a new referendum suggested a choice between accepting the negotiated withdrawal agreement and remaining in the EU, sometimes with the additional option to leave the EU with no deal. In the case of a three-option referendum, voting systems such as supplementary vote,[2] and Borda count[3] were suggested to allow people to state their second preferences.

Reasons that were cited as justification include campaign finance violations by Vote Leave and Leave.EU, the alleged use of data illicitly harvested by Cambridge Analytica,[4][5] revelations of Russian interference through fake social media accounts and allegedly through funding,[6] arguments that the "Leave" camp promoted misinformation,[7] a gradual shift in public opinion, fuelled in part by demographic changes such as adolescents who were too young to take part in the first referendum reaching voting age,[8] and that the eventually-arranged terms of Brexit were unknown at the time of the original vote.[9][10]

The most widely discussed proposal was a referendum between "Remain" and "Accept the deal", which was promoted by the People's Vote pressure group.[failed verification] This was the official position of the Liberal Democrats, the Green Party of England and Wales, Plaid Cymru and the Scottish National Party. The Labour Party also adopted this position in September 2019.[11] The Conservative Party and Brexit Party were opposed to any referendum.[12]

On 12 December 2019, the Conservative Party, led by Boris Johnson, won an 80-seat overall majority in the 2019 general election, ending the possibility of any referendum on the withdrawal agreement being held before ratification by the UK Parliament or before the UK left the European Union. Subsequently, the UK Parliament passed the European Union (Withdrawal Agreement) Act 2020 which received royal assent on 23 January 2020, and the United Kingdom formally left the European Union at 23:00 GMT on 31 January 2020.

History

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A few weeks after the referendum, an e-petition originally set up beforehand on 25 May 2016 by a member of the Leave-supporting English Democrats[failed verification] demanding it be re-run in the event that a supermajority was not reached became the most popular petition on the site, receiving 4,150,262 signatures.[13] On 5 September 2016, the petition received a non-binding debate by Members of Parliament (MPs) in the Grand Committee Room of Parliament's Westminster Hall but its proposal was rejected.[14][15]

The Liberal Democrats and Green Party went into the 2017 general election campaigning in favour of a second referendum,[16][17] and a minority of pro-EU rebels from Labour and the Conservatives also spoke in favour of it.[citation needed] These[clarification needed] allied in April 2018 into the People's Vote campaign group.[18] After several cabinet ministers resigned in protest at the Chequers statement setting out the Government's position in the Brexit negotiations, Conservative MP Justine Greening proposed a three-way referendum, using the supplementary vote system in an attempt to avoid vote splitting.[2]

The leader of the Trades Union Congress, which is closely allied with Labour, said at its 2018 conference that it would declare in favour of a second referendum if the government failed to get "the deal that working people need".[19] On 25 September 2018, delegates at the Labour Party Conference voted in favour of a motion that if Labour did not support Theresa May's deal, and if subsequent attempts to call another general election failed, the party should explore all options, including a second referendum.[20] In early December 2018, the Financial Times reported that Leave groups had also started preparing for another referendum.[21]

The Labour leadership did not make any commitments to a referendum in January 2019.[22] On 18 February 2019, seven pro-EU MPs resigned from the Labour Party to form The Independent Group (TIG). Over the following days, another Labour MP and three Conservative Party MPs joined them. All eleven[failed verification] supported a referendum.[23]

The following week, the Labour Party announced that it would put forward its own second referendum amendment if its attempts to safeguard workers' rights, Single market access and Customs Union membership failed.[24]

In September 2019, the Labour Party adopted the position of holding a public vote on whether to leave or remain regardless of which party negotiated the withdrawal agreement.[11]

Parliamentary votes

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The proposal for a referendum on the withdrawal agreement was first put to Parliament on 14 March 2019 in an amendment (tabled by Sarah Wollaston) to the motion to request the first extension to the Article 50 deadline, where it was rejected by 85–334, with the Labour Party (and all but 43 of its MPs) abstaining.[25][26]

On 27 March and 1 April 2019, a series of indicative votes was held, both times including a referendum on the withdrawal agreement among the proposals. All proposals failed, with those for such a referendum receiving in the first round 268 Ayes, 295 Noes and 71 abstentions (a majority of 27) and in the second round 280 Ayes, 292 Noes and 62 abstentions (a majority of 12). In both rounds, it was the proposal second-closest to receiving an affirmative majority.

Opinion polling

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Main articles: Opinion polling on the United Kingdom's membership of the European Union (2016–2020) and Opinion polling on the United Kingdom rejoining the European Union (2020–present)
 
With "Neither" responses
 
Normalised
Opinion polling (since the 2016 referendum) on whether the UK should leave or remain in the EU
  Leave
  Remain

Polling companies asked questions based on a hypothetical future referendum after the 2016 referendum. For most of 2016 and 2017, public opinion was consistently against another referendum[27] and in the event one was called, polling suggested the Leave option would win again. As Brexit negotiations continued however, the Leave lead consistently slipped and public support for another referendum grew.[28] As of February 2019, no poll in the Britain Elects poll-tracker had shown a lead for Leave since April 2018, and political scientist John Curtice has noted "a modest but discernible softening of the Leave vote".[29][28]

The results of polls asking whether a further referendum should be held varied depending on how the question was phrased: in general a "second referendum" was less popular than a "public vote" or similar descriptor.[30]

Following the scale of Conservative rebellion to the Chequers statement became clear, some polls asked a three-way preference between "Remain", "Deal" and "No deal". The results in this case depended to a great degree on the choice of voting system – a first-past-the-post system for example might see a large Remain win due to vote splitting between the two Leave options.[31]

Support for a future referendum

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A poll conducted in December 2022 by Savanta, 65% of voters were in favor of holding a second referendum, while 24% were opposed (11% don't know).[32]

The following table shows the support for a public vote on the withdrawal agreement or a second EU referendum according to polls conducted Between the 2016 referendum and 2020.

Date(s) conducted Support Oppose Neither Lead Sample Conducted by Polling type Notes
17–18 Oct 2019 47% 44% 9% 3% 1,025 Survation Online
43% 41% 16% 2% [note 1]
17 Oct 2019 EU and UK negotiators agree a new withdrawal agreement.[33]
2–14 Oct 2019 41% 45% 14% 4% 26,000 ComRes Three-option referendum
29–30 Sep 2019 47% 29% 24% 18% 1,620 YouGov Online As opposed to a parliamentary vote, if a deal is negotiated.
52% 23% 25% 29% As opposed to a parliamentary vote, if no deal is negotiated.
5–9 Sep 2019 53% 29% 18% 24% 1,144 Kantar Online
5–7 Sep 2019 43% 42% 15% 1% 2,049 Deltapoll Online [note 1]
3–4 Sep 2019 46% 41% 13% 5% 1,533 YouGov Online
29–31 Aug 2019 41% 47% 12% 6% 2,028 Deltapoll Online [note 1]
15–19 Aug 2019 52% 29% 19% 23% 1,133 Kantar Online
25–27 Jul 2019 44% 44% 12% 0% 2,001 Deltapoll Online [note 1]
24 Jul 2019 Boris Johnson replaces Theresa May as Prime Minister
2–5 Jul 2019 41% 39% 19% 2% 1,532 BMG Research Online [note 1]
23 May 2019 2019 European Parliament election in the United Kingdom
9–13 May 2019 47% 28% 25% 19% 1,152 Kantar Online
4–8 Apr 2019 51% 32% 17% 19% 1,172 Kantar Online
2–5 Apr 2019 52% 24% 24% 28% 1,500 BMG Research Online
3 Apr 2019 35% 39% 25% 4% 1,068 Sky Data Online [note 2]
1 Apr 2019 The House of Commons rejects a motion proposing a referendum on the withdrawal agreement in the second round of indicative votes.
28–30 Mar 2019 40% 38% 22% 2% 1,010 Deltapoll Online
29 Mar 2019 The House of Commons votes to reject the Government's proposed withdrawal agreement for the third time.
28–29 Mar 2019 42% 40% 19% 2% 2,008 Opinium Online On whether MPs should have voted for the relevant motion during the indicative votes
27 Mar 2019 The House of Commons rejects a motion proposing a referendum on the withdrawal agreement in the first round of indicative votes.
27 Mar 2019 40% 35% 25% 4% 1,005 Sky Data Online On whether MPs should vote for the relevant motion during the indicative votes
19 Mar 2019 48% 36% 15% 12% 2,084 YouGov Online
14–15 Mar 2019 48% 36% 15% 12% 1,823 YouGov Online
50% 36% 14% 14% YouGov On whether to leave with no deal or remain in the EU, if the UK looks set to leave without a deal
14–15 Mar 2019 38% 52% 10% 14% 1,756 YouGov Online [note 1]
14 Mar 2019 The House of Commons rejects an amendment which called for a referendum on the withdrawal agreement.
12 Mar 2019 The House of Commons votes to reject the Government's proposed withdrawal agreement for the second time.
4–5 Mar 2019 44% 56% — 11% 2,042 ComRes Online No "Neither" option. Unusual wording. [note 1]
21–23 Feb 2019 43% 45% 11% 2% 1,027 Deltapoll Online [note 1]
18 Feb 2019 47% 35% 18% 12% 1,021 Survation Online
8–11 Feb 2019 41% 48% 11% 7% 2,004 Deltapoll Online [note 1]
4–8 Feb 2019 50% 32% 17% 18% 1,503 BMG Research Online
18 Jan 2019 39% 48% 14% 9% 1,021 Sky Data Online [note 1]
17 Jan 2019 30% 30% 40% 0% 1,792 Sky Data Online Three-option referendum
35% 29% 36% 6% Sky Data [note 2]
33% 31% 35% 2% Sky Data [note 3]
37% 30% 33% 7% Sky Data [note 4]
16–17 Jan 2019 38% 47% 15% 9% 2,031 ComRes Online [note 1]
16 Jan 2019 47% 36% 16% 11% 1,070 YouGov Online
15 Jan 2019 The House of Commons votes to reject the Government's proposed withdrawal agreement for the first time.[34]
14–15 Jan 2019 35% 48% 17% 12% 2,010 ComRes Online [note 1]
8–11 Jan 2019 46% 28% 26% 18% 1,514 BMG Research Online
7–8 Jan 2019 36% 49% 15% 13% 1,754 YouGov Online [note 1]
21 Dec 2018 – 4 Jan 2019 41% 36% 22% 5% 25,537 YouGov Online
14–15 Dec 2018 44% 35% 21% 9% 1,660 YouGov Online Three-option referendum
14–15 Dec 2018 50% 27% 22% 23% 1,660 YouGov Online If Parliament cannot decide how to proceed
13–14 Dec 2018 43% 46% 12% 3% 2,022 Deltapoll Online [note 1]
12–14 Dec 2018 44% 35% 20% 9% 5,043 YouGov Online
30 Nov-2 Dec 2018 40% 50% 11% 10% 2,035 ComRes Online [note 1]
9–30 Nov 2018 Ministers including Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab and Work and Pensions Secretary Esther McVey resign in protest to the government's proposed withdrawal agreement (or to plans preceding it).[35]
28–29 Nov 2018 45% 36% 18% 9% 1,655 YouGov Online
23–26 Nov 2018 53% 39% 8% 14% 1,119 Sky Data Online Three-option referendum
15-16 Nov 2018 44% 30% 26% 14% 1,256 Populus Online
15 Nov 2018 55% 35% 10% 20% 1,488 Sky Data SMS Three-option referendum. Not weighted by 2016 vote.
15 Nov 2018 42% 38% 20% 4% 1,070 Survation Online
14–15 Nov 2018 48% 34% 17% 14% 1,153 YouGov Online
14–15 Nov 2018 47% 53% — 6% 2,000 ComRes Online Only if there is no deal. Not weighted by 2016 vote. No "Neither" option. [note 1]
14 Nov 2018 The UK Cabinet approves a new draft withdrawal agreement.[36]
7 Nov 2018 The Scottish Parliament commits to providing unequivocal support for a public vote on the final terms of the Brexit deal.[37]
24 Oct – 6 Nov 2018 65% 35% — 30% 8,154 Populus Online No "Neither" option
20 Oct – 2 Nov 2018 43% 37% 20% 6% 20,086 Survation Online [note 2]
38% 39% 23% 1% [note 3]
39% 37% 24% 2% [note 5]
28 Sep – 1 Oct 2018 53% 40% 7% 13% 1,443 Sky Data Online Three-option referendum
25–26 Sep 2018 34% 50% 16% 16% 1,634 YouGov Online [note 3]
37% 48% 15% 11% [note 2]
21–22 Sep 2018 39% 43% 17% 4% 1,643 YouGov Online
18–19 Sep 2018 40% 43% 17% 3% 2,509 YouGov Online
10–11 Sep 2018 50% 39% 10% 11% 1,070 Sky Data Online Three-option referendum
4–5 Sep 2018 40% 41% 18% 1% 1,628 YouGov Online
31 Jul – 4 Sep 2018 45% 35% 21% 10% 25,641 YouGov Online
31 Aug – 1 Sep 2018 40% 43% 17% 3% 1,600 YouGov Online
31 Aug – 1 Sep 2018 45% 37% 18% 9% 1,017 Survation Online
17–20 Aug 2018 50% 42% 9% 8% 1,330 Sky Data Online Three-option referendum
31 Jul – 20 Aug 2018 45% 33% 22% 12% 18,772 YouGov Online
6–10 Aug 2018 48% 24% 27% 24% 1,481 BMG Research Online
26–31 Jul 2018 43% 41% 17% 2% 4,957 YouGov Online [note 2]
25–26 Jul 2018 42% 40% 18% 2% 1,631 YouGov Online
24 Jul 2018 The Independent launches its campaign for a second referendum.[38]
20–23 Jul 2018 50% 40% 10% 9% 1,466 Sky Data Online Three-option referendum
16–17 Jul 2018 40% 42% 18% 2% 1,657 YouGov Online
36% 47% 17% 11% Three-option referendum
10–11 Jul 2018 37% 41% 23% 4% 1,732 YouGov Online
8–9 Jul 2018 Brexit Secretary David Davis and Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson resign.[39]
6 Jul 2018 The UK Cabinet agrees the Chequers statement, setting out a proposal on the future UK–EU relationship.[40]
3–5 Jul 2018 44% 27% 29% 17% 1,511 BMG Research Online
19–20 Jun 2018 37% 45% 18% 8% 1,663 YouGov Online
19–20 Jun 2018 48% 25% 27% 23% 1,022 Survation Online
13–14 May 2018 38% 46% 16% 8% 1,634 YouGov Online
12 May 2018 The National Union of Students calls for a referendum on the final deal.[41]
1–4 May 2018 53% 31% 16% 22% 2,005 Opinium
15 Apr 2018 People's Vote campaign launched.[42]
10–12 Apr 2018 52% 31% 17% 21% 2,008 Opinium Online
9–10 Apr 2018 38% 45% 17% 7% 1,639 YouGov Online
6–8 Apr 2018 47% 36% 17% 11% 2,012 ICM Online [note 2]
5–6 Apr 2018 39% 45% 17% 6% 823 YouGov Online [note 2]
26–27 Mar 2018 36% 42% 22% 6% 1,659 YouGov Online
16–23 Mar 2018 41% 52% 7% 11% 1,616 Sky Data Online [note 1]
5–6 Mar 2018 36% 43% 20% 7% 1,641 YouGov Online
2 Mar 2018 35% 54% 11% 19% 1,096 ComRes Online [note 1]
2 Mar 2018 Theresa May makes Mansion House speech, outlining the UK Government's policy on the future UK–EU relationship.[43]
16–23 Mar 2018 41% 52% 7% 12% 1,616 Sky Data Online [note 1]
14–16 Feb 2018 34% 54% 11% 20% 1,482 Sky Data Online [note 1]
16–19 Jan 2018 35% 56% 9% 21% 1,096 Sky Data Online [note 1]
10–19 Jan 2018 47% 34% 19% 13% 5,075 ICM Online [note 2]
9–10 Jan 2018 36% 43% 21% 7% 1,714 YouGov Online
15 Dec 2017 The European Council decides to proceed to the second phase of the Brexit negotiations.[44]
10–11 Dec 2017 33% 42% 24% 9% 1,680 YouGov Online
30 Nov – 1 Dec 2017 50% 34% 16% 16% 1,003 Survation Online
23–24 Oct 2017 32% 46% 22% 14% 1,637 YouGov Online
22–24 Sep 2017 34% 46% 21% 12% 1,716 YouGov Online
22 Sep 2017 Theresa May makes Florence speech, in an attempt to 'unblock' the Brexit negotiations.[45]
12–13 Sep 2017 34% 47% 19% 13% 1,660 YouGov Online
14–15 Jul 2017 46% 39% 15% 7% 1,024 Survation Online
7–11 Jul 2017 41% 48% 12% 7% 2,005 Opinium [note 2]
28–30 Jun 2017 46% 47% 6% 1% 1,017 Survation Telephone
16–20 Jun 2017 38% 51% 11% 13% 2,005 Opinium [note 2]
19 Jun 2017 Brexit negotiations begin.[46]
16–17 Jun 2017 48% 43% 9% 5% 1,005 Survation Telephone
16–17 Jun 2017 38% 57% 4% 19% 1,005 Survation Telephone [note 2]
10 Jun 2017 36% 55% 9% 18% 1,036 Survation Online [note 1]
8 Jun 2017 2017 United Kingdom general election
28 Apr – 2 May 2017 36% 53% 11% 17% 2,003 Opinium [note 2]
27–28 Apr 2017 31% 49% 20% 18% 1,612 YouGov Online
21–22 Apr 2017 39% 46% 14% 7% 2,072 Survation Online
20–21 Apr 2017 31% 48% 21% 17% 1,590 YouGov Online
29 Mar 2017 The United Kingdom invokes Article 50.[47]
17–21 Mar 2017 38% 52% 10% 14% 2,003 Opinium [note 2]
17 Jan 2017 Theresa May makes Lancaster House speech, setting out the UK Government's negotiating priorities.[48]
15–18 Dec 2016 35% 53% 13% 18% 2,048 ComRes [note 1]
13–16 Dec 2016 33% 52% 15% 19% 2,000 Opinium [note 2]
2 Oct 2016 Theresa May makes Conservative Party Conference speech, announcing her intention to invoke Article 50 by 31 March 2017.[49]
13 Jul 2016 Theresa May becomes Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.[50]
29–30 Jun 2016 32% 60% 7% 28% 1,017 BMG Research Telephone [note 1]
27–28 Jun 2016 31% 58% 11% 27% 1,760 YouGov Online [note 1]
23 Jun 2016 2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum
  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y Question asked about a second EU referendum, not necessarily on the final deal.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n Referendum on whether to accept the negotiated terms or remain in the EU.
  3. ^ a b c Referendum on whether to accept the negotiated terms or leave the EU without a deal.
  4. ^ Referendum on whether to remain in the EU or leave the EU without a deal.
  5. ^ Referendum on whether to accept the negotiated terms or re-open negotiations with a view to getting a better deal.

Advocates

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Political parties

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Members of Parliament

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Labour Party

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Labour Party MPs who advocated a referendum on the proposed withdrawal agreement

Liberal Democrats

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Liberal Democrat MPs who advocated a referendum on the proposed withdrawal agreement

Independent

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Independent MPs who advocated a referendum on the proposed withdrawal agreement

See also

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Notes

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  1. ^ After the 2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum. A few commentators, such as New Statesman political editor Stephen Bush, prefer third referendum, counting both the 2016 referendum and the 1975 United Kingdom European Communities membership referendum.[1]
  2. ^ People's Vote is the name of a pressure group. For that reason, some broadcasters avoid the term or prefer "so-called people's vote"
  3. ^ Labour membership suspended: 29 October 2020 – 17 November 2020; whip suspended since 29 October 2020

References

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  1. ^ Bush, Stephen (26 February 2019). "What would happen if there was a second EU referendum?". New Statesman. Retrieved 12 January 2018.
  2. ^ a b Sabbagh, Dan; Walker, Peter (16 July 2018). "Justine Greening endorses second Brexit referendum". The Guardian. Retrieved 26 February 2019.
  3. ^ Xefteris, Dimitrios; Troumpounis, Orestis. "Brexit deadlock: this three-way referendum design could break it". The Conversation. Retrieved 28 May 2019.
  4. ^ "Brexit result has been thrown into question by the Cambridge Analytica data scandal, says Tory MP". The Independent. 30 April 2018. Retrieved 26 May 2019.
  5. ^ "Whistleblower: 'Cambridge Analytica scandal helped Brexit vote'". Evening Standard. 4 June 2018. Retrieved 26 May 2019.
  6. ^ McGaughey, Ewan (16 August 2018). "Could Brexit Be Void?". doi:10.2139/ssrn.3232632. S2CID 219363646. SSRN 3232632. {{cite journal}}: Cite journal requires |journal= (help)
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  8. ^ Ford, Robert (30 March 2019). "Brexit: how do voters feel about the EU now?". The Observer. Retrieved 26 May 2019.
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  56. ^ @PeacePartyUK (23 June 2018). "Peace Party asks you to consider signing the People's Vote Petition to demand a vote on the Brexit deal. We, the people, have the democratic right to determine our own future – SIGN THE PETITION: https://www.peoples-vote.uk/petition #PeoplesVote #PeoplesVoteMarch" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
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