Why did BJP go back to Yediyurappa in Karnataka?

In these columns in the past, BS Yediyurappa (BSY), the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) strongman from Karnataka, has been referred to as the proverbial cat with nine lives. This was said when he was the chief minister and the many attempts to replace him had failed between July 2019 and July 2021. BSY had been eventually replaced, not only because he was over 75 but his vulnerabilities had caught up seriously.In the period that BSY was the chief minister, the other thing that had been established in the minds of the electorate was that BSY’s son, BY Vijayendra, had emerged as the power behind the throne. It was said that he had become a skilled player when it came to bypolls, bureaucratic postings, civil contracts, access to the chief minister, media management and, importantly, caste relations. He was definitely the go-to man in the BJP government.However, despite his hold, Vijayendra had been unable to manage the image of his father’s government. Allegations of corruption against the regime led by the father had caused more than the usual embarrassment to the BJP regime at the Centre and the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh’s interests.Watch: Vijayendra ascends to state unit leadership medium nocaption105143535Finally, a lot of things besides corruption had caught up in July 2021. The BJP regime was seen as acting decisively against BSY and by default his son. It was also read as a move to end their run on the dynastic track.After this, BSY had announced his retirement from electoral politics but was still lurking around in the arena. It was not a secret that he wanted to place his younger son firmly in the BJP system. The rumour that preceded the actual appointment last week was that he had wanted the son to be made nothing less than the state BJP chief. Of course, when he was indeed made, BSY denied he had ever lobbied.When everyone thought that the political future of BSY and his family was not so spectacular anymore, he had demonstrated that his inner cat’s ninth life was still hidden in the pockets of his trademark white safari suit. As if everybody else had got their count wrong.Dynasty politicsIn this backdrop, the larger question is what does Vijayendra’s appointment as Karnataka BJP president do to the narrative of the party’s decisiveness and anti-dynastic rhetoric — the regime’s most trumpeted idea? Does this mean that the BJP has had to compromise on its earlier decision to get rid of BSY and family? Does this mean that the Lok Sabha polls in 2024 for the BJP in Karnataka is not an assured bouquet of victory? Of the 28 seats in Karnataka, the BJP had in 2019 won 26. In 2024, did that look like a tall task with the Congress re-energised? Is this the reason why the central BJP had to swallow its pride?This situation had not arisen elsewhere in India for the BJP since 2014. The BJP has never had to renegotiate its line with any state or national party leader. But questions aside, if one assesses pure competence, Vijayendra is a good bet. He is now the youngest top leader in the state across political parties and has clearly three decades of politics ahead of him. He is politically shrewd, has handled the electoral and executive machinery for his father, is from a dominant caste and has deep pockets. Besides, there was no leader in the Karnataka BJP who had his standing and infrastructure. medium105387637Someone like BL Santosh had not groomed new leadership to replace BSY because he had himself grown ambitious albeit, ironically, without a mass base. Instead of constructing the party, he had created deep fissures since 2006 when he came in as the state unit’s organising secretary. His vision had remained circumscribed even after he became the national organising secretary of the BJP. The appointment of Vijayendra questions the prominence of Santosh in the BJP system.Other leaders like Prahlad Joshi, Sadananda Gowda, Basavaraj Bommai, R Ashoka, KS Eshwarappa and Govind Karjol could not even consistently manage their own small turfs but always appeared as disloyal beneficiaries of BSY’s electoral largesse.Staying in controlIt is to BSY’s credit that he did not yield an inch of his mass control to any of these leaders, and even when he did, in the case of Gowda and Bommai, they proved they had little in them to deserve the chair. Jagadish Shettar, who is now in the Congress, was a similar entity who had the knack of emerging as a weak compromise each time BSY was in trouble.There is yet another angle to Vijayendra’s appointment and his father’s symbolic return to significance. It is likely that the father and son would now be more beholden to the Narendra Modi regime than in the past. Their vulnerabilities, which are clearly in the central leadership’s reckoning, would not make them stray too much. There is also a public debt of a reward that they have been given by the regime. It is nothing but a lease of life. They have an electoral reputation to guard as well. medium105387672BSY’s clandestine alliance with Congress leader Siddaramaiah, often whispered in the state’s political corridors, is somewhat affected by this appointment too. In the past, from 2008 on, it is understood that the two leaders have helped each other to fight their competitors and tormentors in their respective parties.When the coalition government was pulled down in 2019, it is believed that Siddaramaiah sent across his most loyal dozen to prop up a BSY government in the BJP. Similarly, in this year’s assembly election, BSY with little stakes in the outcome is said to have helped Siddaramaiah gain an electoral upper hand. Earlier in 2013, Siddaramaiah was a clear beneficiary of BSY’s rebellion. In the language of cricket, by making Vijayendra in-charge, the BJP’s central leadership was perhaps putting an end to this alleged ‘match-fixing’.Election gambleThese aspects make the central BJP move not just interesting but pragmatic, though not ideal or ideological. There is the exigency of a crucial general election that they seem to have catered to. But what happens if the father-son duo fails to deliver is also not very difficult to imagine. Modi would not appear like he did when he visited the dressing room of the World Cup-losing Indian squad — caring and consoling. Such magnanimity will cease to exist if there is an electoral dwindling in 2024 that directly affects him.One last point: Vijayendra’s core strength is his Lingayat caste. His father BSY was and is a tall leader of the community. But one has to see if the loyalty that the father commands will become the son’s inheritance. This is important to state because the dominant Lingayat community looks distracted now. They have indicated a return to the Congress as an option. Also, a prominent sub-section of the community, Panchamasali, is angry that it has not been represented adequately in the party now, and in the government previously. medium105387714Former Union minister Basavaraj Patil Yatnal has been airing dissent in the name of the sub-community, but he is a certified loose tongue. Finance minister Nirmala Sitaraman was sent to assuage him recently, but he has not stopped speaking. He may soon become a liability and the community may find a new leader.Therefore, it is not about one leader but about the community that feels wronged. Vijayendra’s political skills and patience will be tested here. In the Panchamasali question is also hidden the question of the party’s North Karnataka base. Vijayendra belongs to the greener Malnad region.An added complication is that the caste census has created a flutter among the Lingayats and the Vokkaligas — the two dominant communities in the state. They have clearly opposed it. What if Siddaramaiah still goes ahead? Will this imperil the two communities and their political leadership, which includes Vijayendra, or will it backfire on the Congress?Siddaramaiah does not clearly have the acumen of a Devaraj Urs who built a coalition against the two dominant communities in the 1970s. But what if in 2024 there is a default consolidation of the rest of the communities behind him — Dalits, backwards and minorities? That’s the game to watch in Karnataka.Read more from the author here.