City killer asteroid rushing towards Earth: Scientists warn of its impact

Astronomers have identified a newly discovered asteroid with a small yet alarming chance of colliding with Earth in the next decade. The celestial traveller, named 2024 YR4, is nearly 200-foot-wide and has a 1.2 per cent probability of striking Earth on 22 December 2032 raising concerns about its potential impact, especially if it were to crash in a densely populated area.
The space rock, discovered last year, is roughly the same size as the Tunguska asteroid, which in 1908 exploded over Siberia, flattening an estimated 80 million trees across 830 square miles and unleashing a blast equivalent to 50 million tons of TNT.
Though the event resulted in only three reported deaths due to its remote location, scientists say that today, a similar impact could have a catastrophic effect, particularly over a major city.
After a little less than a decade, 2024 YR4 is expected to pass within 66,000 miles of Earth.
However, as the data about its current trajectory remains uncertain, the risk of impact could change in case more data is gathered about it.
Due to its potential threat, 2024 YR4 has been added to Nasa’s Sentry risk list, which monitors hazardous near-earth objects (NEOs).
What happens if the asteroid makes impact
Experts say that if 2024 YR4 enters Earth's atmosphere intact, it could either explode mid-air in a fiery air burst or crash into the ground, creating a massive crater. However, the extent of destruction relies on the asteroid’s composition and density, the details which have not been gathered by now.
Initial calculations suggest that in case it does collide with Earth, the impact zone, known as the risk corridor—could stretch from South America across the Atlantic Ocean to sub-Saharan Africa, as per the Daily Mail.
However, this projection is subject to change as astronomers refine the asteroid’s orbit.
The asteroid was first detected on 27 December 2024 by Atlas (Asteroid terrestrial-impact last alert system), a Nasa-funded project that scans the sky for potential threats. Automated warning systems quickly flagged 2024 YR4 as a noteworthy object, rating it a 3 on the Torino risk scale, a level that warrants continued monitoring due to its close approach and over 1 per cent chance of impact.
Determining the threat
Finding out details about the exact size and composition of 2024 YR4 is difficult as it is currently moving away from Earth, making radar observations impossible. Scientists estimate its diameter at 196 feet, but this depends on its surface reflectivity, which remains unknown.
Further details
Astronomers hope to study 2024 YR4 more closely when it passes within 5 million miles of Earth in 2028, potentially allowing for radar measurements. Until then, researchers must rely on indirect methods, such as brightness analysis, to refine their estimates.
While the risk remains low, the asteroid's classification as a potential impactor has set off a scientific race to understand its true threat level before 2032.