Modi And The Vocal Class

medium117862993It is one of those enduring half-truths that Modi’s politics is joined at the hip with the interests of ‘middle class’. Budget this year, which has given the biggest single tax-break for the tax-paying classes in decades, will solidify this presumption in the minds of the commentariat, and especially those who think of themselves as belonging to the middle class, even if they drive SUVs and send their children to study abroad.Speaking a day before the budget presentation, PM was careful to ask for Maa Lakshmi’s blessings for “the poor and middle classes”. So, even if ‘middle classes’ were at the top of his mind for doling out the goodies, he did not make the political mistake of leaving out the ‘poor’.For someone who has often talked about serving the “vanchit, peedit, soshit” classes, and whose 2024 general election slogan was about focusing on GYAN (garib, yuva, annadata and nari shakti), clear addition of the words ‘middle class’ this time is significant. It’s recognition that some core constituency, even if not well-defined, needs addressing in terms of sops. In this GYAN formulation, barring the ‘garib’, the rest are not economic classes. They will contain all household income categories.In terms of probability, it’s highly unlikely that any political party lacks support from the ‘middle class’, but that number is not significant for any of them. BJP got 37% of the popular vote. It’s unlikely that a significant proportion of this vote was from the middle class, which often tends to miss voting day, using that holiday to do other things. All parties will have a middle-class vote, however defined.The higher tax exemption limit introduced by the latest budget benefits three crore taxpayers, and takes one crore out of the tax-net altogether. Assuming this class is distributed over many parties, the numbers hardly look like they are worth spending ₹1L cr on. The same amount spent on larger groups (farmers, women) would have brought in bigger political dividends.So why did Modi and his finance minister want to lavish largesse on such a small voter category, which may still not turn up at the polling booth on election day? The answer lies in things that cannot be defined by voting numbers alone. * First, the middle class is not necessarily an income category, but a self-defined one that all political parties need to find favour with. They comprise a crucial middle that connects the powerful to those at the bottom of the pile. They provide the aspirational ladder that makes the poor want to use it for their own betterment.* Second, this class is overwhelmingly represented in political party organisations, armed forces personnel, and general govt staff — and especially in BJP. The party has, in the past, sought to curry favour with this group by increasing their pension benefits under one-rank-one-pension (OROP) and the new unified pension scheme (UPS), among other things. The only people left out were members of the private sector tax-paying public, especially the urban salaried classes. Hence the need for action, since tax slabs haven’t been adjusted for inflation for long.* Third, this class saw govt woo the poor every time. But when it came to their own rewards, finance ministry was seen as playing Scrooge, focusing attention on the “vanchit, peedit, soshit”, and not those who heralded the Modi era. Cash was being doled out to farmers and women and free food sent out to 80cr households. Middle classes felt left out.Consider the new tax regime. It was offered in the 2020-21 budget, but few from middle class took the bait. Next year was status quo. But in 2022-23, the tax-exempt base was raised significantly to ₹7L. Still there was no buzz in middle classes, only a strong feeling that they were left out again. The use of a tax bazooka this time has turned things around. Now, no one can claim she has been left out.* Fourth, this class is extremely voluble on social media, and makes its displeasure known even if it does not vote. A strong voice on social media means negative feelings and discontent can get transmitted to a wider community, a majority of whom have a smartphone. This was one factor that cost BJP a majority in the last Lok Sabha election, which was essentially lost in the two most populous states of Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra.A Deloitte study says that there could be a billion smartphone users in India by 2026. This user base will be fully plugged into social media in all current and future elections. BJP is essentially ensuring that this year’s bonanza for the self-defined middle class will eliminate some of the discontent building up.* Fifth, Delhi, which is home to this motley group of middle classes and wannabe consuming classes, is going to the polls on Wednesday. BJP hopes that this tax-break, combined with the anti-incumbency faced by AAP, can tip the elections in its favour.Modi’s middle-class reachout is part of the politics of propitiating the vocal classes. They are needed for the amplification of the party’s outreach to the poorer classes. It made no sense to leave them muttering darkly about their own exclusion from moolah when everyone else was feeding at the trough.