In 6 charts: Is AAP still on firm footing or shaky ground in Delhi?

medium117981100The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which had swept the past two elections to the 70-member Delhi assembly, is facing a tough contest this time.Both the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress have run bitter campaigns against AAP, many of whose top leaders, including party supremo and former chief minister Arvind Kejriwal and ex-deputy CM Manish Sisodia, are facing investigations in connection with alleged irregularities in the now-scrapped Delhi excise policy.Ironically, AAP burst onto Delhi’s political landscape in 2013, riding on the wave of the Anna Hazare-led anti-corruption movement, and formed a minority government with outside support of the Congress. However, the Kejriwal-led cabinet resigned after 49 days in power due to his government’s inability to table the anti-graft legislation, Jan Lokpal Bill, in the assembly.A notable change this time is Sisodia’s new battleground as the embattled party decided to field him from south Delhi’s Jangpura instead of his home constituency Patparganj in east Delhi.The AAP leader is facing BJP’s Tarvinder Singh Marwah and Congress’s Farhad Suri in Jangpura. Other significant races include minority-dominated Ballimaran in Old Delhi, where Congress’s Haroon Yusuf is taking on AAP’s Imran Hussain. Besides, there are several other high-stakes seats like Greater Kailash, Malviya Nagar, and Mangolpuri.In 2015, AAP achieved a landslide win with 54.6% of the vote share and a record 67 seats, leaving just three seats for the BJP. The Congress, which ruled Delhi for 15 years from 1998 to 2013, failed to open its account.In the 2020 polls, AAP’s vote share and seat count dropped slightly to 53.6% and 62 seats, respectively, while the BJP took eight seats. The Congress, once again, bit the dust. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r Do women-centric initiatives hold the key?In 2019, eight of the nine women candidates fielded by AAP made the cut. In the 2015 assembly polls, all six victorious women were from AAP. There is no woman among the eight BJP MLAs. In all, of the 672 candidates in the fray, 79 were women.AAP has promised new women-centric welfare schemes, claiming they will help families save significantly, including free electricity, water, and women’s travel, alongside a ₹2,100 honorarium for women.The BJP, which has not won any assembly election in Delhi since 1993, has promised a ₹2,500 honorarium for women, affordable cooking gas cylinders among others. The Congress, aiming to regain relevance, promised financial support for the unemployed, women, and consumers using up to 300 units of electricity. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r AAP retained all reserved seatsIn 2020, AAP swept all 12 seats reserved for scheduled caste candidates for the second consecutive time. The BJP finished second in all but one seat, Seemapuri, where the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) was the main challenger. Six AAP MLAs retained their seats, including Rajendra Pal Gautam (Seemapuri) and Rakhi Birla (Mangolpuri), while six new faces secured victories.But, despite the clean sweep, AAP’s victory margins dropped in 10 out of 12 seats compared to the 2015 results. The biggest margins were in Seemapuri (56,108 votes) and Mangolpuri (30,116 votes). Margins fell below 20,000 in Trilokpuri, Gokalpur, and Kondli. Bawana saw the tightest race, with Jai Bhagwan Upkar winning by 11,526 votes, reflecting a narrow vote share gap — 48.38% for AAP and 42.55% for the BJP.The Congress remained out of the picture, having last won a reserved seat in 2013. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r Richest candidatesOut of the 699 candidates contesting this year’s election, five or 1% are billionaires. Three from the BJP and one each from the Congress and AAP have declared assets valued at more than ₹100 crore. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r Rebellion rocked AAP before pollsEight AAP legislators from the outgoing Delhi assembly, who were the among 18 MLAs denied tickets to recontest, resigned from the primary membership of the party on January 31, only five days before the crucial election. medium117978868Can BJP make a comeback?Several exit polls have predicted a victory for the BJP over the ruling AAP in this election, while the Congress is projected to make no significant gains from the last election.Two exit polls, however, have predicted a victory for AAP, and as many showed a close contest between them, with an edge for the BJP. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r However, the ruling party has rejected these predictions, saying that exit polls have historically underestimated the Kejriwal-led party but in actual results, the party gains several times more than these projections.“You look at any exit poll — whether in 2013, 2015 or 2020 — AAP was always shown getting a smaller number of seats. But it got a greater number of seats in the actual results,” AAP’s national spokesperson Reena Gupta told PTI.Research by Rajesh Sharma