Will BJP’s freebies spoil AAP’s bid for a hat-trick in Delhi?

medium117674299Delhi is witnessing a high-decibel election — the incumbent Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is fighting to equal Sheila Dikshit’s record of a hat-trick, and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is desperately trying to regain control of the capital after more than 26 years. The Congress, which had ruled Delhi under Dikshit for 15 years from 1998 to 2013, is desperately trying to come out of the political wilderness. ET takes a look at the factors in play as Delhi votes on February 5.My revdi vs your revdiAAP has changed Delhi’s politics completely. It caught the attention of the electorate in 2015 when it offered and delivered free electricity, water, education and healthcare. Later, it added free bus travel for women. The 2025 assembly election is proving to be a battle of freebies. Even though Prime Minister Narendra Modi termed AAP’s freebies as “revdis”, the BJP has been forced to match Arvind Kejriwal’s election promises, including pension for women and free bus and concessional Metro travel for students. The BJP has even gone a step ahead by promising ₹5 nutritious meals in jhuggi clusters.The woman factorWomen are at the heart of the political campaign in Delhi. This is a dedicated votebank that Kejriwal has successfully weaned from the Congress and decisively won over. If the 2020 assembly election was won with the promise of free bus travel, 2025 is about pension. The woman voter is spoilt for choices — AAP is offering ₹2,100, the BJP and Congress ₹2,500 per month. The BJP has also promised that it would not stop any scheme that the AAP government is running. The woman voter favours the tried-and-tested AAP because of its education model which has meant good government schools (complete with modern classrooms and parent-teacher meetings) for children. medium117674246Kejriwal vs ModiThis time, the BJP has clearly indicated — Modi is on the ticket. It is following the same strategy it has followed in all state assembly elections — not projected anyone as the chief ministerial candidate. This has made the election into a Kejriwal vs Modi fight. The stakes are very high for Kejriwal as it is a ‘do-or-die’ battle for his party. A loss in Delhi will mean ceding political space in its pocket borough. AAP is trying to keep the election local and on its core strengths — anti-corruption and “kaam ki rajneeti”.Middle-class voteOver the past decade, AAP has successfully carved out a dedicated casteless Votebank — the urban middle-class economically weak voter. This voter has directly benefited from Kejriwal’s brand of politics. This time, the focus is back on this votebank. With rising prices and unemployment, all political parties are trying to woo the middle class. At the beginning of his campaign, Kejriwal had spoken about the inclusion of Jats in the Central List for OBCs but the focus now is on the middle class. AAP has deconstructed financially that every household gets benefits of about ₹25,000 per month due to AAP’s schemes. The BJP is countering this with subsidised thalis and scholarship schemes. On the ground, inflated water and electricity bills are troubling the middle-class voter.Ambivalent CongressA lot is riding on how the Congress fares in the election. While the party started with a bang with Rahul Gandhi attacking Kejriwal’s Delhi model, he lost interest in the Delhi fight. He has found the time to campaign with only a week left. The state unit has, once again, been left to fight a lonesome battle. The Congress’ dilemma stems from the realisation that it does not hold enough sway to win a seat and a good performance in any segment would mean the Congress cutting into the AAP vote giving the BJP an advantage. In the 2020 election, only three Congress candidates had managed to save their deposits — Arvinder Lovely (who has joined the BJP and is contesting from home turf Gandhi Nagar), Devendra Yadav (present state unit chief) and Abhishek Dutt (Kasturba Nagar candidate). medium nocaptionhttps://youtu.be/57vglVkqhQI?si=Q_zorZEfcIAQFAYIAnti-incumbencyIn power for a decade, AAP is facing a clear anti-incumbency in Delhi. The ruling party is aware of this and has sought to make amends by dropping 22 sitting MLAs. Sitting minister Manish Sisodia has changed his constituency from Patparganj to Jangpura. Kejriwal’s three sitting ministers — Raaj Kumar Anand, Kailash Gahlot and Rajendra Pal Gautam — have resigned from the party. Anand and Gahlot have joined the BJP and Gautam (a prominent Dalit face) has joined the Congress.Interesting fightsThere are several constituencies witnessing interesting contests. New Delhi, Kejriwal’s home turf, is a VIP contest with sons of two former chief ministers in the fray — Sandeep Dikshit (Sheila Dikshit’s son) and Parwesh Verma (Sahib Singh Verma’s son). The presence of motormouth Ramesh Bidhuri in Kalkaji has queered the pitch for chief minister Atishi Marlena. In Patel Nagar and Chhattarpur, AAP and BJP have swapped their 2020 election candidates.The missing voterVoter turnout will be the key. At the end of it, who wins will be decided by whose voters come out to vote. Delhi’s voter turnout has been declining — probably a reflection of urban apathy. In 2020, voter turnout had dropped to 62.82% from 67.47% in 2015. The Election Commission has deliberately kept voting in the middle of the week (Wednesday) to ensure Delhiites do not go off for a vacation on a long weekend.Lead illustration: Uday Deb