China is constructing a large-scale laser-ignited nuclear fusion research facility in the southwestern city of Mianyang, which experts said Bejing will utilise to enhance both nuclear weapons design capabilities and research into advanced power generation methods.
Satellite imagery has unveiled a sprawling complex, featuring four external arms, each housing laser bays, and a central experimental chamber designed to contain hydrogen isotopes.
These isotopes, such as deuterium and tritium, will be subjected to intense laser beams, facilitating fusion reactions that generate energy.
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Based on US design
The design of the facility closely mirrors that of the National Ignition Facility (NIF) in California, which successfully achieved "scientific breakeven" in 2022 by producing more energy from fusion than was consumed by the lasers.
Experts estimate that the experimental chamber at the Mianyang facility is approximately 50% larger than its counterpart at NIF, which is currently the largest facility of its kind globally.
The development of the project, suggests China is preparing for extensive experiments that could bolster its nuclear arsenal without necessitating traditional nuclear tests.
For weapons or power?
- Nuclear weapons development: One of the primary concerns surrounding this facility is its potential application in nuclear weapons design. The technology employed in laser-ignited fusion can enhance a country's capability to develop and refine nuclear weapons without conducting actual tests. William Alberque, a nuclear policy analyst, noted, "Any country with an NIF-type facility can and probably will be increasing their confidence and improving existing weapons designs" without the need for testing. This capability could allow China to advance its nuclear arsenal while adhering to international testing bans.
- Energy production research: In addition to military applications, the facility may also contribute to advancements in clean energy production. Fusion energy is viewed as a "holy grail" due to its potential to provide an almost limitless source of power with minimal environmental impact. If successful, this research could position China as a leader in global energy innovation, potentially altering energy dynamics worldwide.
China's nuclear capabilities
The revelation of the new bleeding edge facility has raised significant questions regarding its potential applications and implications for regional security, particularly for India.
China's nuclear capabilities have been rapidly increasing, with its arsenal growing from 410 nuclear warheads in January 2023 to an estimated 500 by January 2024. This expansion is part of a broader strategy to enhance its nuclear deterrent capabilities, and projections suggest that if this trend continues, China could potentially match the number of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) possessed by the US or Russia by the end of the decade.
The new facility will help Beijing refine nuclear weapons designs without necessitating actual tests, thereby allowing China to bolster its arsenal covertly while adhering to international non-proliferation norms.
The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) noted that this growth positions China as a formidable nuclear power, significantly outpacing India's capabilities.
India's nuclear arsenal is estimated to consist of 172 warheads, slightly more than Pakistan's 170.
While India has made strides in modernising its nuclear delivery systems — such as the Agni series of ballistic missiles — its overall stockpile remains limited compared to China's rapid expansion.
Besides nuclear weapons, China also outpaces India in nuclear power generation.
India operates 23 nuclear power reactors, generating approximately 6 per cent of its total electricity.
China, on the other hand, has 55 operational reactors and is rapidly expanding its nuclear energy capacity as part of its broader strategy to transition towards cleaner energy sources.
China is also the first country globally to commercialise third-generation reactors. China's ongoing nuclear expansion includes plans to build between six to eight new reactors annually, alongside the operation of advanced reactors like the Shidaowan-1, which is a fourth-generation gas-cooled reactor.
Experts anticipate that the construction of a new nuclear facility in China will significantly enhance Beijing's capabilities in both nuclear weapons development and power generation. This advancement is expected to further widen the already substantial gap between China's nuclear capabilities and those of India.