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Poisson Calculator

The document contains statistics on goal scoring in ice hockey and football games using a Poisson distribution model. It provides the probability of different scores occurring for the home and away teams as well as factors for adjusting the probabilities based on home advantage.

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Softkiller
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© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
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1K views4 pages

Poisson Calculator

The document contains statistics on goal scoring in ice hockey and football games using a Poisson distribution model. It provides the probability of different scores occurring for the home and away teams as well as factors for adjusting the probabilities based on home advantage.

Uploaded by

Softkiller
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as XLS, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

Poisson Calculator

Original JussiQ / TotalCTRL

Including ice hockey and football


Fator Casa

0.65

Home (Goal average)


--->
0.9
<--0
40.7 %
1
36.6 %
2
16.5 %
3
4.9 %
4
1.1 %
5
0.2 %
6
0.0 %
7
0.0 %
8
0.0 %
9
0.0 %
10
0.0 %
10->
0.0 %

Visitor (Goal average)


--->
1
<--0
36.8 %
1
36.8 %
2
18.4 %
3
6.1 %
4
1.5 %
5
0.3 %
6
0.1 %
7
0.0 %
8
0.0 %
9
0.0 %
10
0.0 %
10->
0.0 %

100.0 %

Score
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
10->
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
10->
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2

%
13.5 %
6.1 %
1.8 %
0.4 %
0.1 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
6.1 %
1.8 %
0.4 %
0.1 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.9 %
0.2 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %

Odds

Odds

100.0 %

Border
7.4
16.5
55.0
244.6
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
16.5
55.0
244.6
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
110.1
489.1
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000

Score
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
10->

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
10->

%
15.0 %
13.5 %
3.0 %
0.3 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %

Border
6.7
7.4
33.0
330.2
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000

10->
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
10->
5
6
7
8
9
10
10->
6
7
8
9
10
10->
7
8
9
10
10->
8
9
10
10->
9
10
10->
10
10->
10->

2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
5
5
5
5
5
5
6
6
6
6
6
7
7
7
7
8
8
8
9
9
10

0.0 %
0.1 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %

over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000

Probability sem fator casa


1
X
2
31.4 %
31.8 %
36.8 %
3.18
3.15
2.72

Probability com fator casa


1
X
2
51.9 %
20.9 %
27.3 %
1.93
4.79
3.67

Score
0
0
1
0
1
2
0
1
2
3
0
1
2
3
4
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0

1
2
2
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
5
5
5
5
5
6
6
6
6
6
6
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
8

%
15.0 %
7.5 %
6.7 %
2.5 %
2.2 %
1.0 %
0.6 %
0.6 %
0.3 %
0.1 %
0.1 %
0.1 %
0.1 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %

Border
6.7
13.4
14.9
40.1
44.6
99.1
160.5
178.3
396.2
over 1000
802.3
891.5
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

8
8
8
8
8
8
8
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10->
10->
10->
10->
10->
10->
10->
10->
10->
10->
10->

0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %

over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000
over 1000

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