Noakhali Science and Technology University
Department of Economics
Course Title: International Finance
Course Code: Eco-4205
Research Proposal
A Research Proposal on Impact of Load Shedding in Bangladesh
Submitted to
Mohammad Iqbal Hossain
Lecturer,
Department of Economics
Noakhali Science and Technology University
Submitted by
Sajal Karmakar
Department of Economics
Roll: ASH 1512011M
Year: 04, Term: 02
Session: 2014-15
A Research Proposal on Impact of Load Shedding
in Bangladesh
1. Introduction:
Load shedding is the term used to describe the deliberate switching off of
electrical supply to parts of the electricity network, and hence to the customers in
those areas. This practice is rare, but is a core part of the emergency
management of all electricity networks.
Load shedding can be required when there is an imbalance between electricity
demand (customers’ usage) and electricity supply (the ability of the electricity
network to generate and transport the required amount of electricity to meet this
demand).
When there is a shortfall in the electricity supply, there can be a need to reduce
demand very quickly to an acceptable level, or risk the entire electricity network
becoming unstable and shutting down completely. This is known as a “cascade”
event, and can end in a total or widespread network shutdown affecting very
large areas of a country. Load shedding normally happens in two ways:
Automatic Load Shedding: This is a result of concurrent failures of major
element(s) in the national grid (e.g. co-incidental generator or key transmission
line failures), resulting in protection schemes initiating the automatic isolation of
additional parts of the national grid, to protect the entire grid from cascading to a
total blackout. Automatic load shedding always occurs on the transmission
system level, with the result being large amounts of electricity and large blocks of
customers taken off supply in a very short time. Typical load reduction amounts
can be in the order of 1000MW – 2000MW, affecting hundreds of thousands of
customers.
Manual (Selective) Load Shedding: This occurs where time is available (typically
up to 60mins) to make selective choices on what customers are shed. Selective
load shedding often occurs on the distribution system level, and typically requires
medium to small amounts of electricity to be “shed” in a short time. Typical load
reduction amounts can be in the order of 50MW – 100MW, affecting tens of
thousands of customers at a time. If required, manual load shedding can also
occur at the sub-transmission level, resulting in large blocks of customers being
shed with little to no discrimination between customer types. This situation is
invoked when a large amount of electricity (500MW – 2000MW) is required to be
shed in a timeframe of typically 1mins to 15mins, often under emergency
conditions.
The priority assessment for selective load shedding is based on guidelines which
have been ratified by the Bangladesh Government & BPDB.
As a guide, feeders that supply major hospitals, mental health care institutions,
remand centers, sewerage and water pumping stations, industries requiring
continuous supply, major public transport supplies, and traffic lights at major
intersections, airports and high rise buildings will have a higher priority compared
to feeders that have a predominantly residential, commercial or other industrial
customer mix.
2. Literature Review:
Electricity sector in Bangladesh
Bangladesh's energy infrastructure is quite small, insufficient and poorly
managed. The per capita energy consumption in Bangladesh is one of the lowest
(136 kWh) in the world. Noncommercial energy sources, such as wood, animal
wastes, and crop residues, are estimated to account for over half of the country's
energy consumption. Bangladesh has small reserves of oil and coal, but very large
natural gas resources. Commercial energy consumption is mostly natural gas
(around 66%), followed by oil, hydropower and coal.
Electricity is the major source of power for country's most of the economic
activities. Bangladesh's installed electric generation capacity was 4.7 GW in 2009;
only three-fourth of which is considered to be ‘available’. Only 40% of the
population has access to electricity with a per capita availability of 136 kWh per
annum. Problems in the Bangladesh's electric power sector include corruption in
administration, high system losses, and delays in completion of new plants, low
plant efficiencies, erratic power supply, electricity theft, blackouts, and shortages
of funds for power plant maintenance. Overall, the country's generation plants
have been unable to meet system demand over the past decade.
In generating and distributing electricity, the failure to adequately manage the
load leads to extensive load shedding which results in severe disruption in the
industrial production and other economic activities. A recent survey reveals that
power outages result in a loss of industrial output worth $1 billion a year which
reduces the GDP growth by about half a percentage point in Bangladesh. A major
hurdle in efficiently delivering power is caused by the inefficient distribution
system. It is estimated that the total transmission and distribution losses in
Bangladesh amount to one-third of the total generation, the value of which is
equal to US $247 million per year.
Renewable Energy: Bangladesh has 15 MW solar energy capacities through rural
households and 1.9 MW wind power in Kutubdia and Feni. Bangladesh has
planned to increase renewable energy 450 MW by 2015 and 1600 MW by 2020.
Recent Plans: The Ministry of Power and Energy has been mobilizing Tk 40,000
crore ($5.88 billion) to generate 5,000 MW of electricity to reduce load shedding
into a tolerable level within next four and half years during the term of the
present government. Under the plan, the Power Development Board (PDB) had
produced 500 MW gas-fired electricity between July and December, 2009 to
overcome load shedding within December. The PDB had hired furnace-oil based
1,000MW of electricity from private sector from January to June 2010. In 2011,
the government would install furnace-oil based 800 MW capacity of power plant.
The PDB officials would seek suitable place to establish the plant, a senior official
of the PDB said. Besides the government would also hire another diesel or
furnace oil based power plant having capacity of 700 MW in 2012 to keep load
shedding into mild level, the official said. However, the government also
contemplates to establish four coal-fired based power plants with capacity of
producing 500 MW of electricity each with public and private partnership (PPP) in
Rajshahi and Chittagong region. The government has initially tried to create fund
of Taka 6,000 crore to implement the plan, sources said. The power division has
tried to utilize the government's budgetary allocation of Tk. 2000 crore for PPP in
this regard, sources added. "If we can create the fund of Tk. 6,000 crore, it would
be possible also to mobilize Taka 40,000 crore under PPP to produce 5,000 MW f
electricity within four and half years," PDB chairman ASM Alamgir Kabir told the
New Nation on June 29, 2010. During the meeting, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina
permitted the power division to implement the PDB plan to reduce load shedding
up to a tolerable level.
Nuclear Power Plant: Bangladesh plans to set up the 1,000 MW power plant at
Rooppur, 200 km (125 miles) northwest of the capital Dhaka, by 2011.
3. Objectives
The overall objective of the research is to collect socio-economic data from the
selected areas in order to use them in and impact studies. The specific objectives
of the survey will be to collect data relating to the following variables:
1. Age & Gender
2. Educational Qualification
3. Occupation: Businessmen, Jobholder, Household, Student
4. Location
5. Income level
The specific objectives are - >
Experience of load shedding
> Hours of load shedding and frequencies
> Bearable hours
> Adopted for alternatives
> Affected with respect to time and season
> Affected activities
> Solutions taken at personal/ household level
> Degree of problem
> What is the main reason behind this recent power crisis in Bangladesh?
> Is corruption and technical system loss are only responsible about this power
crisis?
> What should be the role of government to reduce this Power crisis?
4. Methodology:
4.1 Major points:
l Research type – Exploratory Research l
Population size – People of Bangladesh l
Sample size – 100 People
l Sampling technique – Multistage Stratified Random Sampling
l Nature of data collection – Primary data l Data collection
instrument – questionnaire l Data processing instrument –
SPSS and EXCEL
4.2 Research Method
A descriptive research approach will be used to conduct the study. I will use the
survey method and secondary data.
4.3 Sources of Data
1. Primary Data
2. Secondary Data
Primary Data: I will collect our primary data to figure out the main reasons and
public’s reaction about load shedding and power crisis in Bangladesh by
conducting a survey on 100 general people. To do that survey first i have to
prepare some questions and some suitable answers against each question. Then i
have to pretest that questionnaire outside of the sample.
After that I will go out for general people to conduct our survey. The
businessmen, shopkeepers, doctors, teachers, retired peoples, servants,
housewives and students will be participating in our survey.
Secondary Data: I will collect our primary data from the Bangladesh Bureau of
Statistics (BBS), Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB), and from internet.
However, bulk of the data will be collected from primary sources.
4.4 Study Area:
As i will conduct the survey within Bangladesh, first i will select five small areas
randomly. Then I will select twenty samples from each area for conducting my
survey.
4.5 Sample Size:
The Sample Size of my research is 100.
4.6 Sample Selection Procedures:
In sample Selection, I will use Multistage Stratified Random Sampling. That is, I
will divide the whole Bangladesh in small areas and select five small areas
randomly. I will select residential areas as well as business and trade areas to
conduct our research. Then from each of the five areas, I will select twenty people
as sample. I will try to involve all types of people as, Businessmen, Jobholder,
Household, Students in our survey.
4.7 Instruments to be used:
I will collect data using questionnaire. The questionnaire will first be pretested
outside the sample area and then it will be administered in the test area.
5.0. WORK PLAN
This research will be guided by a specific time table to ensure that the data
needed to answer the problems and address the objectives of the study will be
gathered and collected just in time.
The activities will be done according to the following time period
In 1st week:
Topic Selection
Secure adviser’s approval Definition
of the Problem
From 2nd week to 3rd week
Development of objectives
Reviewing related literature
Selection of methodology
From week 4 to week 6
Write the draft of the proposal
Select the study sample
Prepare interview schedule
Do the needed revisions
From week 7 to week 10
Test research tool validity
Conduct research
Do the assessment techniques
Analyze and present gathered data
6.0. Budget
In this research, i the researcher will be responsible for the expected expenditures
in conducting this study. My expected expenditures will be as follows in the
different activities:
Expenditure purpose
Expenditure amount (BDT)
For doing photocopy of resources researched from different books
1000
For doing the photocopy of the formulated questionnaire
1500
For the print out purpose of the materials for the study
500
The phone bills for arranging interview schedule
1000
Conveyance cost for meeting the respondents
2000
Expected Total cost
6000
7.0. Limitations:
There were certain limitations regarding the study that is summarized below:
The main hindrance behind preparing this report is time. So, it is not possible to
go through in depth within this short span of time.
Deficiencies in data required for the study. It will not cover most recent data.
Confidentiality of Data- Information regarding the actual performance and
position as it is related to the government’s reputation and financial stability
that’s why it is quite hard to go through the information.
I carried out such a study for the first time, so in experience is one of the main
constraints of the study.
8.0. References:
Ø The daily star
Ø The daily sun
Ø [Link]
Ø [Link]
Ø The new nation
