Continuous Probability Distributions

 A continuous random variable is a variable that

can assume any value in an interval
 thickness of an item
 time required to complete a task
 temperature of a solution
 height, in inches

 These can potentially take on any

value, depending only on the ability to measure
accurately.

The Uniform Distribution

 The uniform distribution is a probability

distribution that has equal probabilities for all
possible outcomes of the random variable

f(x)
Total area under the
uniform probability
density function is 1.0

xmin xmax x
 The Uniform Distribution
(continued)

The Continuous Uniform Distribution:

1
if a  x  b
ba
f(x) =
0 otherwise

where
f(x) = value of the density function at any x value
a = minimum value of x
b = maximum value of x

Uniform Distribution Example

Example: Uniform probability distribution
over the range 2 ≤ x ≤ 6:

1
f(x) = 6 - 2 = .25 for 2 ≤ x ≤ 6

f(x)
ab 26
μ  4
.25 2 2

(b - a)2 (6 - 2)2
σ2    1.333
2 6 x 12 12
 The Normal Probability
Density Function

 The formula for the normal probability density

function is
1 -μ)2 /2σ 2
f(x) = e (x
2π σ 2

Where e = the mathematical constant approximated by 2.71828

π = the mathematical constant approximated by 3.14159
μ = the population mean
σ = the population standard deviation
x = any value of the continuous variable,  < x < 

Cumulative Normal Distribution

 For a normal random variable X with mean μ and

variance σ2 , i.e., X~N(μ, σ2), the cumulative
distribution function is

F(x0 )  P(X  x 0 )

f(x)

P(X  x 0 )

0 x0 x
 Finding Normal Probabilities
(continued)

F(b)  P(X  b)

a μ b x

F(a)  P(X  a)

a μ b x

P(a < X <b) =F(b) F(a)

a μ b x

The Standardized Normal

 Any normal distribution (with any mean and variance
combination) can be transformed into the
standardized normal distribution (Z), with mean 0
and variance 1
f(Z)

Z ~ N(0 ,1) 1
0 Z
 Need to transform X units into Z units by subtracting the
mean of X and dividing by its standard deviation

X μ
Z
σ
 Example

 If X is distributed normally with mean of 100

and standard deviation of 50, the Z value for
X = 200 is

X  μ 200  100
Z   2.0
σ 50
 This says that X = 200 is two standard
deviations (2 increments of 50 units) above
the mean of 100.

The Standardized Normal Table

Example:
P(Z < 2.00) = 0.5000+0.4772=.9772

.5000 .4772

0 2.00 Z
 The Standardized Normal Table
(continued)

 For negative Z-values, use the fact that the

distribution is symmetric to find the needed
probability:
.9772

.0228
Example:
0 2.00 Z
P(Z < -2.00) = 1 – 0.9772
= 0.0228 .9772
.0228

-2.00 0 Z

Finding Normal Probabilities

 Suppose X is normal with mean 8.0 and

standard deviation 5.0
 Find P(X < 8.6)

X
8.0
8.6
 Finding Normal Probabilities
(continued)
 Suppose X is normal with mean 8.0 and
standard deviation 5.0. Find P(X < 8.6)
X  μ 8.6  8.0
Z   0.12
σ 5.0

μ=8 μ=0
σ = 10 σ=1

8 8.6 X 0 0.12 Z

P(X < 8.6) P(Z < 0.12)

EXAMPLE 2
 The daily water usage per person in
Tetuan, Zamboanga City follows the a normal
distribution with a mean of 20 gallons and a
standard deviation of 5 gallons. About 68
percent of those living in Tetuan will use how
many gallons of water?

 About 68% of the daily water usage will lie

between 15 and 25 gallons.
 EXAMPLE 2
 What is the probability that a person
from Tetuan selected at random will
use at least 20 to less than 24 gallons
per day?
X 20  20
z   0.00 
 5
X  24  20
z    0.80
 5

r a l i
EXAMPLE 2
t r b u i o n :  = 0 ,

0 . 4

0 . 3
P(0 ≤ z<.8)
=.2881
0 . 2

0 ≤ x<.8
f ( x

0 . 1

. 0

- 5

-4 -3 -2 -1 x
0 1 2 3 4
 EXAMPLE 2 continued

 What percent of the population use

water at least 18 to less than 26 gallons
per day?
X  18  20
z    0.40
 5
X  26  20
z    1.20
 5

Example 2 continued

 The area associated with a z-value of –0.40 is

.1554.
 The area associated with a z-value of 1.20 is
.3849.
 Adding these areas, the result is .5403.
 We conclude that 54.03 percent of the
residents use at least 18 but less than 26
gallons of water per day.
 The Exponential Distribution
(continued)

 The exponential random variable T (t>0) has a

probability density function

f(t)  λ eλ t for t  0

 Where
  is the mean number of occurrences per unit time
 t is the number of time units until the next occurrence
 e = 2.71828
 T is said to follow an exponential probability distribution

The Exponential Distribution

 Defined by a single parameter, its mean  (lambda)

 The cumulative distribution function (the probability that

an arrival time is less than some specified time t) is

F(t)  1 e λ t

where e = mathematical constant approximated by 2.71828

 = the population mean number of arrivals per unit
t = any value of the continuous variable where t > 0
 The Exponential Distribution

 The probability that an arrival time is equal to or

less than some specified time a is

P(0  x  a)  1  e λa
where 1/ is the mean time between events

Note that if the number of occurrences per time period is Poisson

with mean , then the time between occurrences is exponential
with mean time 1/ 

Exponential Distribution
(continued)

 Shape of the exponential distribution

E(X)=1/
f(x)
 = 3.0
(mean = .333)
 = 1.0
(mean = 1.0)

= 0.5
(mean = 2.0)

Business Statistics: A Decision-Making Approach, 6e © 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 5-54

 Example

Example: Customers arrive at the claims counter at

the rate of 15 per hour (Poisson distributed). What
is the probability that the arrival time between
consecutive customers is less than five minutes?

 Time between arrivals is exponentially distributed

with mean time between arrivals of 4 minutes (15
per 60 minutes, on average)
 1/ = 4.0, so  = .25
 P(x < 5) = 1 - e-a = 1 – e-(.25)(5) = .7135

Example: Al’s Carwash

The time between arrivals of cars at Al’s Carwash
follows an exponential probability distribution with a
mean time between arrivals of 3 minutes. Al would
like to know the probability that the time between two
successive arrivals will be 2 minutes or less.

P(x < 2) = 1 - e-a = 1 - 2.71828-(1/3)(2) = 1 - .5134

= .4866