In Pursuit of Complexity
In Pursuit of Complexity
Tony Brinklow
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Brighton Business School
University Of Brighton
Occasional/Working Papers
April 2004
Contact details:
Tony Brinklow
Senior Lecturer
Brighton Business School
University Of Brighton
Mithras House
Lewes Road
BRIGHTON BN2 4AT
e-mail: [email protected]
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Abstract
The pursuit of complexity is not quite the paradox it seems. The ‘command and control’
ethos that dominated the middle decades of the twentieth century created the (some might
argue delusory) impression that management and organisation required little more than a
few simple prescriptions. Since the late twentieth century, the combinatorial impact of
(de)regulation, litigation, competition, speculation, corruption, crime, globalisation,
climate change, conflict, terrorism, fashion, fad and (of course) innovation has contrived
to dispel any illusion of simplicity. The corporate environment is characterised now by
unprecedented turbulence, complexity and uncertainty. Business cycles informing the
conduct of commerce and industry are less stable. Familiar assumptions of linearity and
continuity are undermined by increasing and accelerating volatility. Conventional
management theory struggles to provide sustainable strategies for survival, let alone
success. And yet corporations do survive and even prosper. Many such corporations offer
the nurturing and exploitation of intellectual capital as the key to survival. For the
intellectual capital of an organisation to be effective, it must remain relevant and
responsive to shifts (however subtle) in the interactions between an organisation and its
environment. These corporations are learning to adapt to a complex environment that
frequently is counter-intuitive, contradictory and paradoxical. The dynamics of
knowledge creation provides an essential insight to understanding how organisations
learn to embrace complexity.
1. Introduction
Flood concludes Rethinking The Fifth Discipline: Learning within the Unknowable (in
humble reflection) with the claim that “really we don’t know very much about anything
and actually never will’, (Flood, 1999). This apparently rather startling assertion is the
result of applying complexity theory to ‘management and organisation’. Complexity
theory offers many challenging and paradoxical ‘insights’ with which to interpret and
direct the conduct of corporate activity.
Flood describes an environment that is both alien and forbidding, and yet surely resonates
with much of the uncertainty pervading corporate activity. This paper commences by
exploring the nature of complexity and how it applies to ‘management and organisation’.
Attention is then turned to conventional and more recent management theories to evaluate
their attempts to address both uncertainty and the more profound area of complexity. A
similar assessment is applied to systemic reasoning which (arguably) is better placed to
confront the challenges of complexity. Knowledge management builds on the
foundations provided by systemic thinking and proposes a paradigmatic foundation for
learning to sense and respond to complex shifts in the interaction between an organisation
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and its environment. The intellectual capital of an organisation can be thought of as a
repository of dynamically interrelated knowledge assets informing the response to
complexity. A brief discourse is provided on key aspects of the knowledge creation cycle
and the cognitive barriers that impede the creation, maturation and disposal of knowledge
assets.
The material presented in this report replies to Flood’s proclamation; i.e. with all due
modesty, ‘we know more than we can say’ (Polanyi, 1958) and we can know still more.
As with many other disciplines, management theorists are seeking to absorb the
principles of chaos and complexity. Awareness has existed for some time that the
competitive landscape is characterised by periods of tranquillity punctuated by
discontinuous episodes of turbulence and upheaval (Tushman, Newman, Romanelli,
1986). Ormerod detects a similar phenomenon when investigating patterns of
unemployment (Ormerod, 1994). Attempts are made to explain comparable behaviour in
the financial markets (Cohen, 1997; Mandelbrot, 1998). All such conjecture leads,
inevitably, to a discussion of chaos theory. In particular, Stacey (1993) seeks to explain
patterns of organisational behaviour by drawing heavily on Gleick’s account of chaos
theory (Gleick, 1988)
Within this paradigm, the stabilising equilibrium of negative feedback loops and the
explosively destabilising equilibrium of positive feedback loops constitute the attractors
to which an organisation must respond. To be disproportionately influenced by either
attractor invites collapse; sustainable survival depends on resolving the tensions between
these two attractors. A strategy must be devised to enable navigation of a trajectory
between the dynamic borders of these attractors; however, this is to enter an
unpredictable universe that is neither stable nor unstable but a paradoxical combination of
both (Kets de Vries, 1980; Quinn & Cameron, 1988; Hampden-Turner, 1990).
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flexible, pluralistic and more appropriate to volatile conditions. The increasing frequency
and intensity of turbulence suggests that organisations may no longer opt for a unitary or
pluralistic paradigm but, in accordance with Burns and Stalker, must strike a dynamic
balance between the competing configurations.
The modes of organisational behaviour are illustrated in Figure 1. This simple schema
invites a variety of profound interpretations, though while not inconsistent, emphasise
different behavioural imperatives for an organisation.
Chaos
Complexity
Order
The ‘ordered’ mode implies stable behaviour. At first sight a stable organisation might be
considered to represent the pinnacle of corporate achievement. For Battram (1996),
however, a stable organisation is exposed to considerable threat; in particular, a stable
organisation is vulnerable to operational stagnation and ultimate extinction.
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A stable organisation responds to change by oscillating between a limited set of repeating
stereotypical patterns of culture, structure and operations. Thus familiar paradigms are
returned to again and again. Responses to change are always compromised by the
imperative to restore stability and equilibrium; Battram characterises these organisations
as ‘unresponsive and complacent’ and ‘not adapting, not responding to change’. Stable
equilibrium is pursued with a determinism based on convenient assumptions of linearity,
continuity and predictability.
Both ‘ordered’ and ‘chaotic’ modes of behaviour therefore invite failure. Complexity
theory provides for the possibility of resolving the shifting tensions between negative and
positive feedback loops as a sustainable survival strategy. To navigate this trajectory, an
organisation is neither stable nor unstable, but a paradoxical combination of both (Quinn
& Cameron, 1988, Hampden-Turner, 1990); i.e. the organisation adopts a complex mode
of behaviour.
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To exhibit complex behaviour (and therefore survive) an organisation must pursue a
trajectory that it enables it to navigate a route between the fluctuating and competing
attractors of stability and instability. To adopt Stacey’s metaphor, an organisation must
maintain a state of ‘bounded instability’ that is at the ‘edge of chaos’ far from stability
and instability (Stacey, 1993). In more prosaic terms, an organisation must survey its
environment to detect events and interpret signals emitted from those events. If signals
indicate a shift (however subtle) in the essential behaviour of either the organisation or its
environment, a judgment must be made as to whether the organisation should adapt to the
shift by implementing some appropriate response.
3. Systemic thinking
3.1 The decline of the management orthodoxy
Mintzberg is, in fact, arguing for a pluralistic approach to strategic planning where
creative thinking is encouraged rather than thwarted. In this context, pluralism enables
the formulation of emergent strategies by promoting intuitive thinking. Reliance on
analytic thinking restricts strategic planning to a reductive speculation. Intuition is
viewed as a higher form of synthesis utilising soft, speculative information that
necessarily remains tacit unless elicitation is encouraged vigorously.
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3.2 Systems theory – a reprise
Flood (1999) provides a coherent account of systems theory development and the more
specific systemic thinking paradigm.
The origins of systems theory are encapsulated in the work of Ludwig von Bertalanffy
(1968). As early as the 1920s, Bertanlanffy recognised the distinction between closed and
open systems theory, and proceeded then to develop a general system theory in the 1940s
and 1950s.
Flood next turns his attention to Stafford Beer and the science of cybernetics (1959, 1966,
and 1968). For Beer the three properties of a cybernetic system are complexity,
probabilistic behaviour and self-regulation. Cybernetic systems are governed by feedback
and control to achieve some specific purpose. Modelling informs cybernetic reasoning
and evaluation, with management and operational models of ‘how the system really
works’ developed and assessed so that one may illuminate the other. A basic tenet of
cybernetics is the importance of information as a tool to control the effective and efficient
operation of an organisation; a theme that echoes much ‘management and operational’
theory.
Flood identifies three treads to the Soft Systems Programme emerging from Checkland’s
research (1981, 1990 with Scholes, and 1998 with Holwell): action research, interpretive-
based systemic theory and the soft-systems methodology (SSM).
Action research is derived from the work of Kurt Lewin (1947). An action is executed
and reflected upon to yield a deeper appreciation. Resulting suggestions are applied to the
current action and invoke another reflection-action cycle. As this collaborative process of
critical enquiry develops, knowledge is increased about the context, structure and
behaviour of the domain.
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thinking is then applied to the problem domain to elicit root definitions and generate
conceptual models. The product of this analysis is applied to the real-world problem to
determine desirability and feasibility before any eventual accommodation. The main
feature of SSM is that it is virtually free of prescription; there is no start or end point, and
SSM can be configured freely to address the priorities of the real-world problem.
Peter Senge draws on the fundamental principles of systems theory to forge his definition
of the learning organisation. Working with collaborators, Senge’s Fifth Discipline (1990,
1994, and 1999) establishes a foundation from which organisational learning achieves
primacy as a means to interpret, inform and implement corporate behaviour.
The five disciplines are: personal mastery, mental models, shared vision, team learning
and (the fifth) systemic thinking. Personal mastery empowers individuals to develop and
extend a personal vision while reconciling intrinsic aspirations. Mental models provide a
network of cognitive processes to recognise and contextualise organisational
environment. Shared vision refers to a common sense of purpose and commitment from
which to forge focus and energy for organisational learning. Flood notes here that
learning refers to generative rather than adaptive learning. Team learning seeks to align
cognitive endeavour and thus create a synergistic environment where the team exploits
fully the individual contribution of each team member. For Senge, systemic thinking
achieves primacy by integrating all five disciplines and ‘delivers the empowering
potential of the learning organisation’ (Flood, 1999). Systemic thinking addresses both
detail and dynamic complexity to adopt a holistic stance and thus explain organisational
behaviour in terms of systems dynamics, where system archetypes are used to explain the
underlying structure in behaviour.
The explication of mental models is an essential precursor to the more advanced level of
organisational learning represented by systems thinking. In addition to endorsing much
familiar material on systems thinking, Senge identifies two crucial contributions (Senge,
1994):
- systems thinking requires a qualitative shift from the more familiar linear thinking,
i.e. organisations are considered to be constellations of processes and not structures
(Capra et al, 1991)
- self-organising systems (‘where order emerges from chaos’) provide a prototype for
managing organisations in turbulent environments (Wheatley, 1993).
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Nonetheless, from these foundations, Kemeny et al consider effective systems thinking
(and thus organisational learning) to be based on simultaneous reflection on: events,
patterns of behaviour, systems, and mental models (Kemeny et al, 1994). Goodman and
Kemeny advocate the use of archetypes as a mechanism for constructing credible and
consistent hypotheses for comprehending systems and the associated mental models
devised by domain experts (Goodman & Kemeny, 1994). An archetype is defined ‘as
nothing more than a mental model made visible’ and may be used to redesign systems by
introducing and removing nodes, and adding loops and breaking links between the nodes.
When an organisation is defined by some constellation of archetypes, learning may
become focused on breaking through organisational gridlock (Kim, 1993). Through the
judicious use of archetypes to identify and define the systemic structures that describe
corporate behaviour, organisational learning is achieved by:
From this brief survey of organisational learning, there can be little dispute that the
mental models devised by individuals and small groups of domain experts provide two
potent sources of knowledge:
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- mental models are used to detect shifts in patterns of behaviour that may presage a
competitive opportunity or threat.
It is also clear that knowledge embedded in the deepest recesses of mental models is
occasionally capable of ascending through decreasing levels of obscurity until it becomes
possible to articulate the knowledge in some form that is meaningful to the organisation.
Once this knowledge emerges, it becomes available for integration with knowledge held
in the public domain and for exploitation by the organisation. However, organisational
learning is not simply a matter of explicating knowledge held in mental models. There is
also the complementary process of disturbances in the public domain generating the
material necessary to stimulate unconscious cognitive activity and the consequent
evolution of new mental models.
Nonaka and Takeuchi argue that organisational learning follows a cyclical trajectory (see
Figure 3.5) where knowledge may be created in either an explicit or tacit state and may
be transformed between those states (Nonaka & Takeuchi, 1995).
Combination
EXPLICIT KNOWLEDGE
Knowledge transfer (by teaching) Knowledge
internalisation
(by training)
Externalisation
Internalisation
Knowledge
codification
(by systematising) Knowledge sharing (by coaching)
TACIT KNOWLEDGE
Socialisation
Nonaka and Takeuchi borrow the terms explicit and tacit knowledge from Polanyi to
distinguish between knowledge that is codified and thus transmittable in some systematic
language, and knowledge that is personal, context-specific and thus difficult to formalise
and communicate (Polanyi, 1966). Polanyi’s argument on the importance of tacit
knowledge in human cognition is that knowledge is acquired by actively creating and
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organising individual experiences. Moreover, explicit knowledge represents ‘only the tip
of the iceberg of the entire body of knowledge’.
Nonaka and Takeuchi distinguish between the learning organisation and knowledge-
creating company. They claim learning organisation theory is predicated on an
assumption of ‘rightness’ and the necessity for intervention from some internal agency.
In reality, they assert that organisations create new knowledge continuously by
reconstructing existing behaviour, perspectives, culture and beliefs. Moreover, a broad
criticism of literature addressing organisational learning is the absence of any guidance
on how to actually create knowledge; by rectifying this deficiency, Nonaka and Takeuchi
claim to establish the difference between a knowledge-creating company and a learning
organisation.
As Nonaka and Takeuchi point out, the socialisation and combination processes simply
disseminate knowledge without any change of state and therefore exert only limited
influence on the extension of an organisation’s knowledge resource; although this is not
to discount the importance of diffusion. However, to identify opportunities for the
innovative creation of new knowledge, it is necessary to explore the processes of
externalisation and internalisation where, hopefully, a vibrant interaction between tacit
and explicit knowledge might be detected. They argue that to achieve this vibrancy,
knowledge must be in broad alignment with the strategic intention although this does not
necessarily prohibit the reconstruction of inherent perspectives or cognitive frameworks.
Secondly, organisational knowledge may transcend the immediate and obvious needs of
the business. Finally, the texture of the knowledge should, in some respect, reflect the
complexity and uncertainty of the interrelationship between the organisation and its
environment.
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Accordingly, Boisot declares that coding economises on the quantity of data to be
processed, while abstraction economises on the number of categories through which data
will have to be processed. It is argued that efforts towards greater abstraction share a
common motivation with attempts at greater codification: they both constitute an
endeavour to economise on the data defining a domain and the effort required to process
that data. However, it should also be noted, that Holton argues in favour of uncodified
abstract knowledge providing a ‘“well-spring” of scientific creativity’ (Holton, 1986).
Moreover, Holton contends that speculation can be guided by themata that are
‘universally shared even though scarcely articulated’. Abstraction and codification
conventions thus represent a strategy for introducing simplifying assumptions and
configurations that better equip the domain expert to confront a deluge of complexity and
uncertainty that might otherwise be overwhelming. Successful abstraction and
codification conventions must therefore achieve some balance between capturing the
essence of a domain while necessarily sacrificing some of its detail. Although abstraction
and codification conventions share a common motivation, their individual strategies are
different yet complementary. Boisot reasons that codification strategies strive to
economise on processing data by reducing the complexity of form, whereas abstraction
conventions seek greater economies by reducing the complexity of content. Codification
thus proceeds by differentiation to enumerate finite sets of discrete elements, while
abstraction proceeds by integration to cluster these elements into discrete correlations
between individual phenomena.
High
High
Few attributes Few attributes
in many categories in few categories
Degree of
coding
Many attributes Many attributes
in many categories in few categories
Low
Lo
Low
Low Degree of abstraction High
High
With this schema, Boisot had transformed Nonaka and Takeuchi’s epistemological
dimension into a two-dimension space, providing a penetrating insight with which to
explore further the relationship between tacit and explicit knowledge.
Entropy attacks the utility and scarcity of knowledge and, in so doing, undermines the
prevailing abstraction and codification conventions, i.e. entropy drags knowledge into the
zone of many attributes and categories. A sustained cognitive investment is required to
restore knowledge utility and scarcity by moving towards a more ordered region where
knowledge assets are expressed with fewer attributes and categories, i.e. effective
abstraction and codification conventions are brought to bear on the knowledge reservoir.
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Boisot’s schema is derived from Polanyi’s description of the ‘different models of
knowing’ (see Figure 4). The concrete and uncodified knowledge domain is available to
the largest constituency, but deals only with unstructured knowledge and applies only to
‘local’ phenomena. The semi-tacit knowledge domain comprises the creation of
knowledge assets derived from a willingness to invest in the acquisition of codes and
categories providing a cognitive framework to elicit tacit knowledge. The domain of
abstract and codified knowledge represents the apex of cognitive activity; within this
domain: novelty, invention, innovation and discovery are all possible.
Codified Abstract
and
codified
Semi-tacit knowledge
knowledge
Concrete and
uncodified
Uncodified knowledge
Concrete Abstract
Figure 4. Polanyi’s different modes of knowing (1958)
Boisot (1998) provides yet another interpretation of the E-space (Figure 5) that
superimposes the zones of order, complexity and chaos. The zone of chaos is where
entropy is at a maximum, while the knowledge is exposed to minimum entropy in the
zone of order. Maximum entropy diminishes the utility and scarcity of knowledge, and
creates the circumstances necessary to launch a knowledge creation cycle. To embark on
this cycle, access is required to both the tacit and explicit knowledge available to domain
experts; indeed, it is the tacit knowledge frequently that offers most opportunity. The
knowledge creation cycle embarks on a value-generating trajectory towards the zone of
order, i.e. the region of minimum entropy. It is in this region, where new knowledge
assets can be expressed with mature abstraction and codification conventions, have
optimal utility and scarcity, and are of greatest potential value. Exploitation of knowledge
assets reduces their utility and scarcity immediately, thus increasing entropy and drawing
them towards the zone of chaos and ultimate abandonment. It is in the zone of complexity
that the knowledge asset is available primarily for exploitation. This very simplified
explanation of the knowledge creation process describes the lifecycle of a knowledge
asset. Boisot argues, however, that an organisation must learn to exist in and traverse all
three zones.
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Codified Zone of
Order
Zone of
Complexity
Zone of
Uncodified Chaos
Concrete Abstract
5. Modelling complexity
Narration (both verbal and written) is a notoriously unreliable mode of expression.
Domain experts probably can describe what is local with some degree of coherence and
precision; those domains remote to the expert are quite another matter. Complexity
demands scrutiny of both these domains. Mature abstraction and codification conventions
provide the foundation for eliciting tacit knowledge resident in both local and remote
domains, thus extending the reservoir of explicit knowledge and enabling the adaptation
of corporate direction.
Finally, a variety of tools support automation of the modelling process; some of which
support the configuration of methodological extensions to address the individual
complexities of specific domains. Moreover, many tools enforce semantic integrity and
offer diagnostic support
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6. Conclusion - Learning to Sense and Respond
Boisot asserts that organisations must learn to exist in the zones of chaos, complexity and
order. Entropy renders residence the chaotic region untenable and the ordered zone
unsustainable in the longer term. Corporate survival depends therefore on an organisation
exhibiting complex behaviour; i.e. achieving a dynamic and paradoxical equilibrium
between the competing and fluctuating influences of order and chaos. Survival demands
that organisations must behave as complex adaptive systems, where knowledge may be
generated and exploited to provide a charter for corporate survival and prosperity.
Business Models are an extremely effective device for locating perturbation, and
devising, evaluating and implementing a response, i.e. learning to sense and respond. In
contradiction of Flood, therefore, models reveal knowledge and provide an enabling
framework for refreshing the corporate knowledge pool.
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