T. A.
PAI MANAGEMENT INSTITUTE (TAPMI), MANIPAL
FORECASTING MODELS
Programme: LEAD
Batch: 2020
Term: 2
Course Name: Forecasting Models – MSL 4505
Credits: 2 (20 Hours)
Course Instructors: Prof. S Sudhindra
PART 1
INTRODUCTION
Forecasting has become an integral part of the business analytics field. At present, reliable
forecasts are essential in all economic as well as business activities. For instance, demand
forecasts help in inventory stocking, sale forecasts aid in achieving the sales revenue,
economic forecasting assists in knowing future conditions of the economy, and so on. This
course introduces to methods apt for forecasting using time series datasets. This course will
be taught in R software; henceforth students who enroll in this course should have basic
knowledge in R software, as well in basic regression models.
COURSE OBJECTIVES (CO)
1. To learn how to use the basic statistical techniques and processes for forecasting
2. Emphasis on rationale, application, and interpretation of the most commonly used
forecasting techniques in business practices
COURSE LEARNING OUTCOMES (CLO)
By virtue of the learning gained in this course, the student should be able to:
CLO 1: Apply various popular forecasting methods
CLO 2: Analyse a myriad of data patterns in time series to identify the best model
CLO 3: Evaluate the performance of forecasting models
1
COURSE CONTENT
Introduction: Forecasting for Management Decisions
Exploring Data Patterns and an Introduction to Forecasting Techniques
Time Series and Their Components
Forecasting with Smoothing Techniques
Forecasting with Simple and Multiple Regression
The Box–Jenkins Method (ARIMA) of Forecasting
Forecasting performance and reporting
PRE-REQUISITE
A solid foundation in statistical techniques (in particular regression technique) is mandatory. In
addition to it, students should have basic knowledge in R software.
PRESCRIBED TEXT BOOK
Shmueli, G. and Lichtendahl Jr. K. C. (2016). Practical Time Series Forecasting with R: A Hands-ON Guide.
Bhutan: Axelrod Schnall Publishers. 2nd Edition.
OTHER READINGS AND REFERENCES
a. Hoshmand, A. R. (2009). Business forecasting: a practical approach. Routledge. 2nd Edition.
b. Makridakis, S., Wheelwright, S. C., & Hyndman, R. J. (2008). Forecasting methods and applications.
John wiley & sons.
POLICY ON PLAGIARISM
Plagiarism of any kind and to any extent would attract penalties. The assessment would be
‘zero’ for that component, with no further opportunity to improve. Repetition of the offence
would result in failure in the subject.
ASSESSMENT SCHEME AND WEIGHTAGE:
2
{a} END-TERM
Duration (in Open/close
Evaluation Weightage (%) CLO Tested
minutes) Book
End-Term 50 120 Close
{b} OTHER ASSESSMENTS
Evaluation Unit of
S. No. Item Evaluation Weight Time CLO
1 Quiz 1 Individual 10% After 4th session
2 Case discussion Individual 10% 10th session
Two days before
3 Project work Group 30% End-term exam -
3
PART 2: SESSION PLAN
Session. Topic (s) Pedagogy Reading
Course overview: Basics; Fundamental
1 Lecture & Discussion Chapter 1
Considerations in Business Forecasting;
Time Series and Their Components;
2 Lecture & R Exercise Chapter 2
Visualization of time series components
Performance evaluation. Data
3 partitioning. Naïve forecasting; Lecture & Discussion Chapter 3
Measuring predictive accuracy;
Forecasting methods: Overview; Model-
4 based vs data-driven methods. Lecture & Discussion -
Extrapolation methods. Econometric
models;
Quiz (10%)
Time Series Data Pre-
5 Processing and Visualization Lecture & R Exercise -
Selecting Suitable Model
Forecasting with Smoothing Techniques:
6 Lecture & Discussion Chapter 5
Naïve Model & Averaging Models
7 Exponential Smoothing Models Lecture & Discussion Chapter 5
Statistical Background for Time Series
8 Lecture & Discussion -
Analysis and Forecasting
Forecasting with Regression:
9 Application & R Exercise
Linear Model & Least Squares Method
Demand Forecasting for Perishable Short
10 Self-Life Homemade food at iD Case Discussion -
Fresh Food
11 The Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) Methodology Lecture & R Exercise Chapter 7
Judgmental Forecasting and Forecast
12 Adjustments: Delphi Method, Scenario Lecture & Discussion Chapter 9
Writing
Forecasting Performance Evaluation
13 Lecture & Discussion Chapter 10
and Reporting
14 Course Summary & Wrap Up Discussion -
4
PART 3: SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION
End-term Exams
Your understanding will be tested through descriptive answers. Answers with
references to the suggested readings are preferred.
Title: Group Project
Since project work will be a team-based work, students should form a team of 3–4
members preferably with diverse backgrounds. Each team must come out with research
problem on real-time business activities. They need to formulate forecasting approaches for
selected problems.
There are two phases:
Submit a plan - a printed single page (A4 size, single space, and 12 font), for your project. It
should clearly state the reason for selecting the topic, list of questions to be answered by
the project report, and how will you collect the data for the report. This deliverable is
essential to proceed to the next stage.
o Time – Before 7th session.
Submit a report of at least five pages about the components proposed in the plan. The printed
report shall be in A4 size, single space, and 12 font.
o Time - Exactly two days before the End-term exam.
Faculty: Prof. Ashish Kumar Rathore Endorsed by : Prof. Sudhindhra S.
Signature & Date: Signature & Date:
