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Threat Assessment Methodology

This document outlines a threat assessment methodology that evaluates three factors - capability, intent, and presence - on a scale of low, medium, and high. It then calculates an overall threat score and level based on the combination of these factors and their respective confidence levels. Capability refers to an adversary's estimated capacity, intent is their planning or desire to use a capability, and presence is their level of support and participation within a geographic area. The methodology provides definitions for determining the levels and confidence assessments for each factor. An overall threat score is calculated using a formula that weights each factor by its confidence level.

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Josh Carter
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180 views2 pages

Threat Assessment Methodology

This document outlines a threat assessment methodology that evaluates three factors - capability, intent, and presence - on a scale of low, medium, and high. It then calculates an overall threat score and level based on the combination of these factors and their respective confidence levels. Capability refers to an adversary's estimated capacity, intent is their planning or desire to use a capability, and presence is their level of support and participation within a geographic area. The methodology provides definitions for determining the levels and confidence assessments for each factor. An overall threat score is calculated using a formula that weights each factor by its confidence level.

Uploaded by

Josh Carter
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOC, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

Threat Assessment Methodology

Capability Intent Presence


Level Confidence Level Confidence Level Confidence
Low (1) Uncertain (.33) Low (1) Uncertain (.33) Low (1) Uncertain (.33)
Moderately Medium Medium
Medium (2) Moderately (.67) Moderately (.67)
(.67) (2) (2)
High (3) Highly (1) High (3) Highly (1) High (3) Highly (1)

Threat = (Capability X Confidence) + (Intent X Confidence) + (Presence X Confidence)

Threat Range = potential lowest score to highest score

Overall Threat Level Low Medium High Note


Threat Score 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Confidence Levels

Uncertain: some evidence suggests Essential Elements of Information (EEIs) are available to address intelligence gaps related to a
capabilities assessment; however, the paucity of information sources precludes assignment of a confidence level in the judgment.

Moderately confident: we have some of the EEIs, yet critical ones remain unaddressed. The available information may be
uncorroborated or may be based upon statements that may be deceptive.

Highly confident: we have enough information to address most of the critical EEIs needed to support a judgment. The source
credibility is augmented by other source corroboration and there appears to be minimal evidence of deception.
Capability Levels

Capability is an adversary’s estimated attack, criminal or foreign collection capacity, which takes into account operational experience,
training, information or skill availability, research and inquiry, weapons or equipment acquisition, security, resiliency, and
repeatability.

Low: negligible adversary effort to obtain a capability, and no evidence suggests a bonafide capacity exists.

Medium: the adversary has expressed an interest and is pursuing a capability by conducting research and training, obtaining materials
and equipment, developing external expertise or recruiting experts; adversary is well positioned to further advance the capability.

High: the adversary possesses the expertise, materials and equipment, and adequately trained or experienced operatives to use the
capability.

Intent Levels

Intent is the planning or desire to use a particular capability, as offset by any observable or suspected concealment and deception.

Low: no credible reporting concerns operational planning by an adversary and no evidence suggests concealment or deception.

Medium: there is limited reporting from sources of unknown or questionable reliability, yet there is limited corroboration to suggest
veracity regarding plots; there is motive, but there are limited opportunities or feedback to support sustained deception.

High: there is reasonably reliable reporting from multiple sources.

Presence Levels

Presence can be described as the estimated level of potential support and known or suspected participation of adversaries in
developing or exercising capabilities within a defined geographical area.

Low: there is little evidence to suggest significant adversary support or presence within the defined areas of concern.

Medium: there is limited reporting and information to suggest some support or presence within defined areas of concern; however, the
locations are ill-defined.

High: there is credible reporting and information that identifies areas of support and known or suspected presence within the defined
areas of concern.

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