$TSLA A
B Historical
Scenario B C 2018A 2019A 2020A
Revenue
Automotive sales 17,632 19,952 26,184
% growth 13.2% 31.2%
Automotive leasing 883 869 1,052
% of auto sales 5.0% 4.4% 4.0%
---------- ---------- ----------
Total automotive revenues 18,515 20,821 27,236
Energy generation and storage 1,555 1,531 1,994
% growth -1.5% 30.2%
Services and other 1,391 2,226 2,306
% of auto revenue 7.5% 10.7% 8.5%
---------- ---------- ----------
Total revenues 21,461 24,578 31,536
% growth 14.5% 28.3%
Expenses
Automotive sales GOGS 13,686 15,939 19,696
% of revenue 77.6% 79.9% 75.2%
Automotive leasing 488 459 563
% of revenue 55.3% 52.8% 53.5%
---------- ---------- ----------
Total automotive COGS 14,174 16,398 20,259
% of revenue 76.6% 78.8% 74.4%
Energy generation and storage 1,365 1,341 1,976
% of revenue 87.8% 87.6% 99.1%
Services and other 1,880 2,770 2,671
% of revenue 135.2% 124.4% 115.8%
---------- ---------- ----------
Total cost of revenues (COGS) 17,419 20,509 24,906
% of revenue 81.2% 83.4% 79.0%
% growth 17.7% 21.4%
---------- ---------- ----------
Gross Profit 4,042 4,069 6,630
% of revenue 18.8% 16.6% 21.0%
Research and development 1,460 1,343 1,491
% growth -8.0% 11.0%
Selling, general and administrative 2,835 2,646 3,145
% growth -6.7% 18.9%
Restructuring and other 135 149 -
---------- ---------- ----------
Total Operating Expenses 4,430 4,138 4,636
% of Revenue 20.6% 16.8% 14.7%
Interest income 24 44 30
Interest expense (663) (685) (748)
Other (expense) income, net 22 45 (122)
---------- ---------- ----------
Loss before Income Taxes (1,005) (665) 1,154
Provision for Income Taxes 58 110 292
Effective Tax Rate 0.3% 0.4% 0.9%
---------- ---------- ----------
Net Loss (1,063) (775) 862
Depreciation, amortization 1,901 2,154 2,322
% of Capex 16.8% 20.7% 18.2%
Stock-based compensation 749 898 1,734
% of Revenue 3.5% 3.7% 5.5%
---------- ---------- ----------
Adj. EBITDA 2,262 2,983 6,050
% of Revenue 10.5% 12.1% 19.2%
% growth 31.9% 102.8%
Balance Sheet
Current Assets 8,307 12,103 26,717
(-)Cash 3,686 6,268 19,384
(-)Current Liabilities 9,993 10,667 14,248
(+)ST Debt 2,568 1,785 2,132
---------- ---------- ----------
Net Working Capital (2,804) (3,047) (4,783)
% of Revenue -13.1% -12.4% -15.2%
Net PP&E 11,330 10,396 12,747
Capital Expenditure
PP&E (2,101) (1,327) (3,157)
Solar Energy PP&E (218) (105) (75)
---------- ---------- ----------
Total Capex (2,319) (1,432) (3,232)
% of Revenue -10.8% -5.8% -10.2%
Discounted Cash Flow and Share Price Sensitivity
Entry
Date 4/30/2021
Adjusted EBITDA
(-)Taxes
(-)Capex
(-)Change in Net Working Capital
(-)Other
Unlevered FCF
Terminal Value
Value of Self driving by 2040
FCF to DCF -
IRR (641,105)
Assumptions
Discount Rate (WACC) 10.0%
Perpetuity Growth Rate 5.0%
EV/EBITDA Multiple 17x
Share Price $ 677
Shares Outstanding 960 Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value $ 846,300
(-) Debt 10,569
(+) Cash 19,384
Equity Value $ 855,115
Fair Value of Stock $ 891
Share Price Sensitivity
Autom
891 0%
13x
15x
Exit Multiple 17x
19x
21x
Charts
Football Field Data
lo(bar)
DCF - Bull $ 775.00
DCF - Base $ 695.00
DCF - Bear $ 405.00
52wk hi/lo $ 157.00
Valuation Summary
Valuation Summary- Equity Valu
$2,200
$1,850
$1,500
$1,150
$800
$450
$100
DCF - Bull DCF - Base DCF - B
Projected
2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E
29,802 35,584 44,593 53,319 63,961 77,110
13.8% 19.4% 25.3% 19.6% 20.0% 20.6%
Bull Case 15.9% 20.0% 26.1% 20.5% 24.0% 23.6%
Base Case 13.8% 19.4% 25.3% 19.6% 20.0% 20.6%
Bear Case 11.7% 16.5% 21.5% 16.6% 19.0% 19.5%
1,263 1,421 1,821 2,188 2,888 3,830
4.2% 4.0% 4.1% 4.1% 4.5% 5.0%
Bull Case 5.3% 5.0% 5.1% 5.1% 5.6% 6.2%
Base Case 4.2% 4.0% 4.1% 4.1% 4.5% 5.0%
Bear Case 3.4% 3.2% 3.3% 3.3% 3.6% 4.0%
---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
31,064 37,005 46,414 55,508 66,849 80,939
2,134 2,291 2,470 2,674 2,907 3,174
7.0% 7.4% 7.8% 8.2% 8.7% 9.2%
Bull Case 8.8% 9.2% 9.8% 10.3% 10.9% 11.5%
Base Case 7.0% 7.4% 7.8% 8.2% 8.7% 9.2%
Bear Case 6.0% 6.3% 6.6% 7.0% 7.4% 8.3%
2,762 3,460 4,132 5,022 6,083 7,298
8.9% 9.3% 8.9% 9.0% 9.1% 9.0%
Bull Case 10.2% 10.8% 10.2% 10.4% 10.5% 10.4%
Base Case 8.9% 9.3% 8.9% 9.0% 9.1% 9.0%
Bear Case 8.4% 8.9% 8.5% 8.6% 8.6% 8.7%
---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
35,960 42,756 53,016 63,203 75,838 91,411
14.0% 18.9% 24.0% 19.2% 20.0% 20.5%
23,118.88 27,599.38 34,241.61 41,219.91 49,389.70 56,565.82
77.6% 77.6% 76.8% 77.3% 77.2% 73.4%
Bull Case 73.7% 73.7% 72.9% 73.4% 73.4% 69.7%
Base Case 77.6% 77.6% 76.8% 77.3% 77.2% 73.4%
Bear Case 78.0% 77.9% 77.2% 77.7% 77.6% 73.7%
680 756 978 1,171 1,700 2,480
53.9% 53.2% 53.7% 53.5% 58.9% 64.8%
Bull Case 51.2% 50.5% 51.0% 50.8% 55.9% 61.5%
Base Case 53.9% 53.2% 53.7% 53.5% 58.9% 64.8%
Bear Case 61.9% 61.1% 61.7% 61.5% 67.7% 74.5%
---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
23,799 28,355 35,219 42,391 51,090 59,046
76.6% 76.6% 75.9% 76.4% 76.4% 73.0%
1,869 1,907 1,953 2,008 2,300 2,468
87.6% 83.2% 79.0% 75.1% 79.1% 77.8%
Bull Case 83.2% 79.0% 75.1% 71.3% 75.2% 73.9%
Base Case 87.6% 83.2% 79.0% 75.1% 79.1% 77.8%
Bear Case 92.0% 87.4% 83.0% 78.9% 83.1% 81.6%
2,624 3,122 3,543 4,263 5,112 6,071
95.0% 90.3% 85.7% 84.9% 84.0% 83.2%
Bull Case 104.5% 99.3% 94.3% 93.4% 92.4% 91.5%
Base Case 95.0% 90.3% 85.7% 84.9% 84.0% 83.2%
Bear Case 90.3% 85.7% 81.5% 80.6% 79.8% 79.0%
---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
28,292 33,384 40,714 48,662 58,501 67,585
78.7% 78.1% 76.8% 77.0% 77.1% 73.9%
13.6% 18.0% 22.0% 19.5% 20.2% 15.5%
---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
7,668 9,372 12,302 14,542 17,337 23,826
21.3% 21.9% 23.2% 23.0% 22.9% 26.1%
1,567 1,649 1,739 1,835 1,941 2,069
5.1% 5.3% 5.4% 5.6% 5.7% 6.6%
Bull Case 4.3% 4.5% 4.6% 4.7% 4.9% 6.3%
Base Case 5.1% 5.3% 5.4% 5.6% 5.7% 6.6%
Bear Case 5.9% 6.0% 6.2% 6.4% 6.6% 7.6%
3,310 3,487 3,678 3,883 4,103 4,341
5.3% 5.4% 5.5% 5.6% 5.7% 5.8%
Bull Case 4.2% 4.3% 4.4% 4.5% 4.5% 4.6%
Base Case 5.3% 5.4% 5.5% 5.6% 5.7% 5.8%
Bear Case 5.5% 5.6% 5.7% 5.8% 6.0% 6.1%
---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
4,877 5,137 5,416 5,718 6,044 6,410
---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
2,791 4,235 6,885 8,823 11,293 17,416
330 400 506 616 754 926
0.92% 0.94% 0.96% 0.97% 0.99% 1.01%
---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
2,461 3,835 6,379 8,208 10,539 16,489
6,678 8,196 9,889 11,881 14,541 17,877
18.6% 19.2% 18.7% 18.8% 19.2% 19.6%
Bull Case 21.4% 22.0% 21.4% 21.6% 22.0% 22.5%
Base Case 18.6% 19.2% 18.7% 18.8% 19.2% 19.6%
Bear Case 15.8% 16.3% 15.9% 16.0% 16.3% 16.6%
1,515 1,905 2,504 2,821 3,402 4,122
4.2% 4.5% 4.7% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5%
Bull Case 4.3% 4.5% 4.8% 4.5% 4.6% 4.6%
Base Case 4.2% 4.5% 4.7% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5%
Bear Case 4.0% 4.2% 4.5% 4.2% 4.3% 4.3%
---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
10,984 14,336 19,278 23,525 29,236 39,414
30.5% 33.5% 36.4% 37.2% 38.6% 43.1%
81.6% 30.5% 34.5% 22.0% 24.3% 34.8%
---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
(4,870) (5,859) (7,495) (8,718) (10,984) (13,902)
-13.5% -13.7% -14.1% -13.8% -14.5% -15.2%
Bull Case -14.2% -14.4% -14.8% -14.5% -15.2% -16.0%
Base Case -13.5% -13.7% -14.1% -13.8% -14.5% -15.2%
Bear Case -11.5% -11.6% -12.0% -11.7% -12.3% -11.7%
---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
(3,222) (3,568) (4,869) (5,581) (6,830) (8,398)
-9.0% -8.3% -9.2% -8.8% -9.0% -9.2%
Bull Case -9.4% -9.9% -10.4% -10.9% -11.4% -12.0%
Base Case -9.0% -8.3% -9.2% -8.8% -9.0% -9.2%
Bear Case -6.3% -5.8% -6.4% -6.2% -6.3% -6.4%
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
12/31/2021 12/31/2022 12/31/2023 12/31/2024 12/31/2025 12/31/2026 12/31/2027
10,984 14,336 19,278 23,525 29,236 39,414 52,493
(330) (400) (506) (616) (754) (926) (1,137)
(3,222) (3,568) (4,869) (5,581) (6,830) (8,398) (10,303)
87 989 1,637 1,223 2,266 2,918 3,656
---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
7,519 11,356 15,538 18,552 23,918 33,008 44,709
---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
7,519 11,356 15,538 18,552 23,918 33,008 44,709
7,519 11,356 15,538 18,552 23,918 33,008 44,709
Market Value
Market Capitalization 649,920
(+) Debt 10,569
(-) Cash 19,384
EV 641,105
Equity Value/Share $ 667.8
Autonomo
Automotive Sales Growth
10% 20% 30% 40%
% Chanc
Value of AI b
Gauge Chart Data
lo(label) hi(bar) hi(label) Start 0.0
0-30% 0.3
$ 775.00 $ 1,955.00 $ 1,955.00 31-60% 0.3
$ 695.00 $ 1,325.00 $ 1,325.00 61-90% 0.3
$ 405.00 $ 885.00 $ 885.00 Total 0.9
$ 157.00 $ 900.00 $ 900.00
Rate of Return
ummary- Equity Value per share($) IRR
31-60%
0-30%
0-30%
F - Base DCF - Bear 52wk hi/lo
ed
2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E
93,278 113,229 136,974 165,889
21.0% 21.4% 21.0% 21.1%
27.2% 25.8% 24.5% 22.1%
21.0% 21.4% 21.0% 21.1%
19.9% 20.3% 19.9% 20.1%
4,224 5,288 6,468 7,697
4.5% 4.7% 4.7% 4.6%
5.7% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0%
4.5% 4.7% 4.7% 4.6%
3.6% 3.7% 3.8% 3.7%
---------- ---------- ---------- -------------
97,503 118,517 143,442 173,586
3,482 3,839 4,254 4,740
9.7% 10.3% 10.8% 11.4%
12.1% 12.8% 13.5% 14.3%
9.7% 10.3% 10.8% 11.4%
8.7% 9.2% 9.7% 10.3%
8,967 11,118 13,725 16,941
9.2% 9.4% 9.6% 9.8%
10.6% 10.8% 11.0% 11.2%
9.2% 9.4% 9.6% 9.8%
8.9% 9.1% 9.3% 9.5%
---------- ---------- ---------- -------------
109,951 133,473 161,421 195,268
20.3% 21.4% 20.9% 21.0%
65,005.54 83,134.88 98,835.94 119,035.33
69.7% 73.4% 72.2% 71.8%
66.2% 69.8% 68.5% 68.2%
69.7% 73.4% 72.2% 71.8%
70.0% 73.8% 72.5% 72.1%
2,494 3,220 3,982 4,657
59.0% 60.9% 61.6% 60.5%
56.1% 57.8% 58.5% 57.5%
59.0% 60.9% 61.6% 60.5%
67.9% 70.0% 70.8% 69.6%
---------- ---------- ---------- -------------
67,500 86,355 102,818 123,692
69.2% 72.9% 71.7% 71.3%
2,692 2,879 3,191 3,555
77.3% 75.0% 75.0% 75.0%
73.5% 71.3% 71.3% 71.3%
77.3% 75.0% 75.0% 75.0%
81.2% 78.8% 78.8% 78.8%
7,385 9,065 11,079 13,538
82.4% 81.5% 80.7% 79.9%
90.6% 89.7% 88.8% 87.9%
82.4% 81.5% 80.7% 79.9%
78.2% 77.5% 76.7% 75.9%
---------- ---------- ---------- -------------
77,577 98,298 117,087 140,786
70.6% 73.6% 72.5% 72.1%
14.8% 26.7% 19.1% 20.2%
---------- ---------- ---------- -------------
32,374 35,174 44,334 54,482
29.4% 26.4% 27.5% 27.9%
2,199 2,330 2,462 2,595
6.3% 6.0% 5.7% 5.4%
6.0% 5.7% 5.4% 5.1%
6.3% 6.0% 5.7% 5.4%
6.6% 6.3% 5.9% 5.7%
4,598 4,875 5,175 5,500
5.9% 6.0% 6.2% 6.3%
4.7% 4.8% 4.9% 5.0%
5.9% 6.0% 6.2% 6.3%
6.2% 6.3% 6.5% 6.6%
---------- ---------- ---------- -------------
6,797 7,205 7,637 8,094
---------- ---------- ---------- -------------
25,577 27,969 36,697 46,387
1,137 1,407 1,736 2,142
1.03% 1.05% 1.08% 1.10%
---------- ---------- ---------- -------------
24,441 26,562 34,960 44,245
21,933 27,158 33,501 41,336
19.9% 20.3% 20.8% 21.2%
22.9% 23.4% 23.9% 24.3%
19.9% 20.3% 20.8% 21.2%
17.0% 17.3% 17.6% 18.0%
4,982 6,078 7,388 8,982
4.5% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6%
4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.7%
4.5% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6%
4.3% 4.3% 4.3% 4.4%
---------- ---------- ---------- -------------
52,493 61,205 77,586 96,705
47.7% 45.9% 48.1% 49.5%
33.2% 16.6% 26.8% 24.6%
---------- ---------- ---------- -------------
(17,558) (22,380) (28,419) (36,097)
-16.0% -16.8% -17.6% -18.5%
-16.8% -17.6% -18.5% -19.4%
-16.0% -16.8% -17.6% -18.5%
-11.1% -10.6% -10.0% -9.5%
---------- ---------- ---------- -------------
(10,303) (12,757) (15,128) (18,420)
-9.4% -9.6% -9.4% -9.4%
-12.6% -13.2% -13.9% -14.6%
-9.4% -9.6% -9.4% -9.4%
-6.6% -6.7% -6.6% -6.6%
2028 2029 2030 Exit
12/31/2028 12/31/2029 12/31/2030 12/31/2030
61,205 77,586 96,705
(1,407) (1,736) (2,142)
(12,757) (15,128) (18,420)
4,822 6,039 7,678
---------- ---------- -------------
51,862 66,761 83,821
1,643,991
12,819
---------- ---------- ------------- -------------
51,862 66,761 83,821 1,656,810
51,862 66,761 83,821 1,656,810
Rate of Return
Current Price 677
Target Price 891
Target Price Upside 31.6%
IRR 13%
Autonomous Driving
US Citizens 343
USC using Tesla AI 40%
USC using Tesla AI 137
AI Trips/Year 80
Revenue/AI Trip $ 2.97
Revenue in 2040 $ 32,598
EBITDA margin 50%
AI Business EBITDA in 2040 $ 16,299
EV 277,079 Bull Case 15.0%
% Chance they get there 12.0% Base Case 12.0%
Value of AI business in 2040 33,250 Bear Case 10.0%
IRR 27
13% 2
Total 331
IRR
31-60%
% 61-90%
