Abstract

The making and implementing of foreign policy is key element which is supposed to mirror the
domestic setting with due consideration of sub-regional, regional and global developments. The
2002 Foreign Affairs and National Security and Policy Strategy (FANSPS) outlines domestic factors
as base for the making. Related to this case, the document explains in detail the regional and
international context of Ethiopia’s security concept. Nonetheless, the decade long history of policy
implementation bears out entrenched poor governance, economic malaise, rampant poverty,
abuse of people’s rights and the likes. This is further reflected in the 2009 Anti Terrorism Law and
its offshoots. Furthermore, the government’s Rural Development Policy and Strategies and the
GTP-I theoretically reinforce the significance of economic growth for human security but the
implementation side adheres to national security matters. The findings of the study points out that
the domestic state of affairs does not support the genesis of the FANSPS; the essence of the
FANSPS and the internal political, economic and social situations are incongruous. Though, the
2002 FANSPS advocates domestic factors as base for the policy and strategy, findings depict
international security system and power politics being its foundation. In addition, the policy
document is not people centered; as well the foreign policy and security strategy document lacks
institutionalization during the making process and its application. Thus, it necessitates re-making of
the foreign policy and security strategy, to precisely reflect and address domestic challenges
through sound, effective foreign relations instruments and diplomatic service with state of the art
and incorporation of human security, in fact without sacrificing and defending Ethiopia’s key
national interests.

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Introduction

Since the germ of modern government structure, Ethiopia had been pursuing relations with states
anchored to advance its vital interests. In the course of maintaining relations with other states,
foreign relations principles have been changing with changes of regime, from throne maintenance
to socialist internationalism and thereby national security up till now. Having anti colonial firm
stand, supporting liberation movement which struggle for independence, working to the
advancement of the African unity were common denominators of the post 19 th century regimes of
Ethiopia.

Many historians trace modern Ethiopian foreign policy to the reign of Emperor Tewodros II, whose
primary concerns were the security of Ethiopia's traditional borders and obtaining technology from
Europe (or modernization). King Tewodros' diplomatic efforts, however, ended disastrously with
the British expedition of 1868 which was concluded with his death. Despite the efforts of his
successor Emperor Yohannes IV to establish a relationship with the United Kingdom, Ethiopia
attracted less attention to the world powers until the opening of the Suez Canal. The Period of
Emperor Menelik II, who succeeded Yohannes in 1889, was a period of introducing modernization,
maintaining relations with the then powerful states, and confronting and defeating the invading
Italian forces at the battle of Adwa, 1896.

The foreign relations of the modern Ethiopian states were motivated by the government's mission
to establish multiethnic nation-state and maintain territorial integrity. Though interrupted by brief
Italian occupation, the imperial time had attempted to establish a strong and bureaucratic empire
allying with the West. The admission of Ethiopia to the League of Nations and later founding role in
the United Nations compounded with sending of peacekeeping forces and supporting OAU the seat
being in Addis Ababa were some of the milestones in international standing. After the Emperor,
Dergue shifted the alliance to the Eastern Bloc pursuing independence in the area of domestic
policy and international economic policy. In general, the pre - 1991 regimes were typically known in
advancing the African decolonization process and supporting liberation movements.

After the demise of the Dergue, there has been transitional Charter which served 1991 – 1994.
Thereafter, the 1995 Constitution replacing the charter outlines Ethiopia’s foreign policy principles.
Hence, Article 86 advocate territorial integrity, non interference, and mutual cooperation with
neighboring states and beyond (Negarit Gazette, 1995). In legal principle, any policy or strategy is
expected to conform to the working constitutional provisions.

In 2002, the current government formulated the Foreign Affairs and National Security Policy and
Strategy (FANSPS) to guide Ethiopia’s foreign relations and security. This policy document invites
academia and others to augment it through research works. “Scholars play in enriching policies and
implementing them is crucial. Although state research institutions have role in carrying out the
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studies, relevant to policies and strategies, other scholars and institutions can also play a vital role.
They could present alternative views and promote debate” (2002: 53 – 54). On this premise, the
paper attempts to identify and argue on the implications of the Ethiopian foreign affairs and
security from theoretical perspectives and down-to-earth steps with ascertaining of the domestic
dynamics vis-à-vis the policy and strategy.

To be specific, the attempt to deal with the history of Ethiopia’s foreign relations is not the purpose
of the study but to meticulously examine the current regime’s policy principles and documents
(like, Foreign Affairs and National Security Policy and Strategy of 2002, with GTP One and Ministry
of Finance and Economic Development reports…). In addition, it explores the FANSPS elucidation of
the concept of security and other issues, application trends and its consistency with the diverse
policies, strategies and domestic realities and global developments. Finally, the paper boils down
by identifying major findings with the way forward. The study is a qualitative research which
employs various methods: literature review, scanning of policies, proclamations, official reports as
well personal readings, observations and experiences.

1. Foreign Policy Formulations and Changes: Theoretical Discussions

The making of foreign policy is a decisive element in any state social, political and economic
changes and transformations. Kefale (2011: 2) points out that foreign policy making is rather
tedious and complex task. Its loose point in one aspect might bring huge adverse effect thereby
leading the policy to a failure stage. Thus, Foreign policy analysis involves the study of how a state
makes foreign policy (retrieved from http://www.foreignpolicyanalysis.org/). Foreign Policy
Analysis is both the study of domestic and international politics. Hence, it is an effort which
requires careful consideration of various factors and processes.

A foreign policy formulation process considers and incorporates internal and external determining
factors. Categorically stating, internal factors are built on: influence and ideological orientation of
policy makers, historical ethos, socio-political conditions, economic status, geographical location,
public opinion, psychological factors …. In addition, external factors implicate: globalization effects,
anti terror actions, cooperation and conflict of states. Various studies maintain that the foundation
of foreign policy making is built on domestic factors which are considered as basic and pillars to
formulate foreign policy document as compared to external factors. A significant and growing
literature on international relations (IR) argues that domestic politics is typically an important part
of the explanation for states’ foreign policies … (Fearon, 1998: 289 -290). Rogowski (1998)
summarized the propositions and evidenced on how variation in domestic-political institutions
influences five dimensions of states’ foreign policies: the basis of foreign policy (e.g. toward war or
peace, toward free trade or protection); the credibility of foreign policy commitments; the stability
and coherence of a state’s foreign policy; the ability to mobilize and project power; and domestic
actors’ strategies for influencing foreign policy (quoted in Fearon, 1998: 303). Without including

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other domestic elements, political institutions impacts the state foreign policy positively and
negatively.

A state’s foreign policy changes insinuate the transformation of the policy direction to ensemble
requirements of the state of affairs. Thus, a government’s intentions to redirect its foreign policy
are not sufficient for a change to happen. In this regard, Hermann (1990) outlines four graduated
levels of foreign policy changes: (a) adjustment (b) program changes (c) problem/goal changes (d)
international orientation changes (ibid). In a nut shell, a synthetic approach is employed to institute
policy adjustment without sacrificing the essence of the policy but with adjustment to policy
objectives. The first three levels adjustment, program and problem/goal changes are considered
foundations to introduce changes.

According to Ashari (ny: 4) the goals of a country’s foreign policy are increasingly influenced by
domestic and external forces, thus, the objectives of a country’s foreign policy undergo frequent
changes. “… an analysis of foreign policy decision making had to start with these bureaucracies and
the various factors that caused them to play what was, in their view, the determining role in
shaping foreign policy outcomes. This approach to understanding foreign policy therefore
emphasizes the interplay between leaders, bureaucratic actors, organizational culture and, to an
extent, political actors outside of the formal apparatus of the state (Alden, 2011). Foreign policy is
not static policy document but dynamic which has to maintain its pace with internal changes and
global developments. Thus, the interplay of domestic and international factors induces re-
adjustment of foreign policy objectives; the interplay of structural and speculative origin of
parameters is also a cause to re-adjust foreign policy.

The foreign policy making stages (retrieved from http://www.foreignpolicyanalysis.org/) involve a

number of stages. These are:

A. Assessment of the internal and international political environment - Foreign policy is made
and implemented within an international and domestic political context, which must be
understood by a state in order to determine the best foreign policy option.
B. Goal setting - A state has multiple foreign policy goals. A state must determine which goal is
affected by the international and domestic political environment at any given time. In
addition, foreign policy goals may conflict, which will require the state to prioritize.
C. Determination of policy options - A state must then determine what policy options are
available to meet the goal or goals set in light of the political environment. This will involve
an assessment of the state's capacity implement policy options and an assessment of the
consequences of each policy option.
D. Formal decision making action - A formal foreign policy decision will be taken at some level
within a government with wider public participation and endorsement (italics mine).

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 E. Implementation of chosen policy option - Once a foreign policy option has been chosen, and
a formal decision has been made, then the policy must be implemented. Foreign policy is
most commonly implemented by Ministry of Foreign Affairs or State Department with the
involvement of trade, chamber of commerce, and others (italics mine).

Using the above stages in foreign policy making, the home environment is critical in foreign policy
making analysis, which the government, private sector and civil society including the wider public
are, the forces behind the making and implementing.

2. Conceptual Underpinnings on Human and National Security

The history of international relations, global political practices and power politics attests the
domination of state-centric approach over people focused actions. Historically, after the end of the
Cold War and with the coming of global interconnectedness (globalization) human security began
to expand focusing more on people than on the state. Conceptually, the term security had been
implying the maintenance of territorial integrity and national security; however, there had been
various conceptualizations and understandings. The period until the end of the Cold War and
afterwards witnessed twin conceptions of security: the traditional and narrow concept of security
which was dominant security conception until the end of the Cold War, likewise the concept of
human security which emerged after the demise of Cold War becomes the other side of security
conception. On this ground, it is imperative to clearly distinguish the traditional and narrow
concept of security from the human security concept. The human security concept evolved in the
nineties as a compensation for deficiencies of a traditional concept of security.

In contemporary period, there are twin theories of International Relations in relation to security. At
one end of the argument, there is an approach based on a neo-realist (‘new security thinking’)
theoretical framework, which maintains a continued emphasis on the primacy of the state within
the broadened conceptualization of human security (Naidoo, 2001; Buzan, 1991). Although Buzan
(ibid) examines security from the three perspectives of the international system, the state, and the
individual, he concludes that the most important and effective provider of security should remain
the sovereign state. Furthermore, Buzan (ibid) stresses that the neo-realist approach to security
places human security ‘alongside state security as a twin referent in the theory and practice of
security’.

On the other side of the argument, Post-modernism (Critical Human Security) rooted within the
pluralist theory of international politics attempts to dislodge the state as the primary referent of
security, while placing greater emphasis on the interdependency and transnationalization of non
state actors (Booth, 1994). Human security is ultimately more important than state security. In the
same vein, the postmodernist conceptualization of security does not equate state security with

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human security. As a result, the ongoing (security) debate centers on the identification of a primary
referent or unit of security.

The question is: the possibility of determining the actor through identifying the primary referent?
On this issue, Van Aardt (1997) remarks that arguments for the state to remain the primary
referent of security should not mean maintaining the state as the sole or unitary referent of
security; but rather it means that the security of the state, in particular a state that is weak, should
continue to remain primary, since the main aim is to build the capacity of the state to provide and
maintain security for its citizens’ (quoted in Naidoo, 2001: 3). In other words, although the
conceptualization of security must make the security of people and human beings its end, the
state, as the means, cannot be dislodged from the primary referent. It means the issue of human
security supplements the traditional security rather than replacing. Thus, what is required today is:
an inclusive security than security that limits itself only to national security. This means that the
concept of human security should be understood as accompaniment to the traditional security
concept, not a replacement. Therefore, human security should be conceived as non-detachable
part of national and international security conceptions and policies.

What do we understand about human security? In order to clarify the concept, it is pertinent to
identify the gaps of traditional security and redefining human security to fit to the contemporary
realities. In this regard, the UNDP (1994: 22) proclaims that traditional notions of security were
concerned with security of territory from external aggression, or as protection of national interests
in foreign policy, or as global security from the threat of nuclear holocaust. It has been related
more to nation-states than to people. … It is time to redress the balance and include the protection
of people. Thus, this change of conception informs that people should be able to live in dignity that
honors their human rights.

According to Kaldor and Sechow (2008: 3), human security includes: the primacy of human rights,
legitimate political authority and a bottom - up approach. The categorization represents safety,
dignity and welfare of individuals and the communities, government assuming power through the
consent of the people and the people being part of intensive consultation to win their hearts and
minds. Likewise, the UNDP (1994: 24 – 25) outlines seven different components of human security
which includes economic, food, health, environmental, personal, community and political security.
The individual became a key referent object in human security, differentiating it from the
traditional approach (Prezelj, ny: 4-5). In similar way, there is an understanding of human security
involving multiple sectors. The Copenhagen School defined security as inherently multi sectoral
phenomenon consisting of military, environmental, economic, political and societal sectors. It
pragmatically combined traditional and emerging approaches in security studies (quoted in Prezelj,
ny: 3). The application of human security as component of national policies does not relegate the
exercise of the traditional concept of security. In this matter, Auxworthy (1999) (quoted in Prezelj,

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ny: 6) emphasizes that the rights of the state and the rights of the individual co-exist; human
security does not counteract traditional security rather it adds in traditional threats and means.

The conceptualization and concrete policy initiatives on human security, eventually, encounter
challenges. Krause (2007: 18 – 19) identifies the state being the only candidate to present policy
initiatives. States inevitably face systemic and competitive pressures that lead them to revert to
more traditional foreign and security policy stances. The other challenge is the push and pull of
traditionalists and policy entrepreneurs in foreign policy bureaucracy. The third problem is the role
of civil society and non-state actors in the promotion of human security. In order for freedom from
fear to be achieved, individuals have to be empowered to take control of their environment and to
become stakeholders in political, economic and social processes that affect them.

The above discussions confirm that it is imperative for a state of defined territory to consider and
review the domestic situation for any change or adjustment of national policies. Basically, the
domestic human security situation serves as spring board to formulate a foreign policy document
that incorporates twin security conceptions: traditional and human. Considering the points raised
Bosold and Bredow (2006: 833 – 834), argues that the most crucial question in terms of the
domestic dimension of human security is related to the foreign policy formulation process. …
human security might actually streamline the foreign policy of a country by giving policymakers a
sort of guideline (consisting of values, an ethical code, comprehensiveness, etc.). Following this
argument, human security would allow for a concerted foreign policy by those actors and
institutions that actually conduct (or, better influence) the external affairs of a state.

In general, human security must be seen as both a goal and a means, both a strategic framework
and a tactical doctrine; but in order to use it responsibly, advocates must be entirely clear on how
the concept will be translated into practical action, and why it presents a better alternative to
traditional approaches (Martin and Owen, 2010:222). The human security agenda requires
reframing; with clarity in conceptualization and its jurisdiction, later institutionalization can be put
in place without greater correctness.

3. Critical Review of the Foreign Affairs and National Security Policy and Strategy Paper and the
Foreign Relations Practices

3.1 Document Review

It is evident that Ethiopia has regularly used military force in order to remove threats, to back up its
political efforts and to demonstrate its power and resolve. The current Ethiopian government is no
exception to the pattern established by its Imperial and Socialist predecessors (Mohammed,
2007:5). Amidst of the commonalities, the current government has introduced a different pattern.
In this matter, Hengari (2013:2) argues that Ethiopia’s relative stability … does not mask the
domestic fault-lines - religious and ethnic - that have a profound impact on the country’s foreign

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policy, and particularly the country’s role in the Horn of Africa. Furthermore, Hengari ( ibid) points
out that the degree to which Ethiopia … re-engineer the domestic order to reflect democracy as
one of the country’s foreign policy stated doctrines remains an obstacle to bolder Ethiopian
diplomatic and economic role within and beyond the Horn of Africa. The relations with defensive
Eritrea in the North, fragile Somalia in the South, in the Western border the South Sudan – Sudan
non-cordial relations as well intra state conflict in South Sudan against the Ethiopian domestic
political order remains to be quagmire to the sub-region.

In seeking further explanation, the review process begins by assessing the document against the
domestic practice as well inconsistencies observed in the document. The policy and strategy points
out how people benefit from democracy and development. “In order to bring this about, the policy
and strategy bases itself on the internal challenges and vulnerability to threats that have influence
on our survival …. Our direction is to move from the internal to what is external, doing our
homework first, thereby enabling us to identify our shortcomings” (emphasis italicized) (FANSPP,
2002: 3). In the introductory part, the policy and strategy clearly affirms that internal challenges
and vulnerabilities as primary focuses to execute the policy and strategy. Furthermore, it states
that “the external environment is viewed from the prism of our national situation and condition,
and this ensures that the policy and strategy have relevance to our national security and survival”
(ibid: 3 - 4). A senior Ethiopian Forego Relation Authority argues that …foreign policy aims to
economic diplomacy to reduce poverty …. This approach recognizes that abject poverty is the
primary national security concern that puts the survival of the country in danger (Leulseged, 2016).
What is important here is: how much the document is made practicable and how much the policy
document aptly reflects and springs from the domestic ambit.

On the other spectrum of the document, the policy and strategy argues that “security policy is a
matter of ensuring national survival. The alpha and omega of security is the ensuring of national
survival. Foreign affairs and security policy must be formulated first and foremost to ensure
national security. Issues of prosperity, sustainable peace, and stability and other related concerns
then follow (ibid: 5). In its national security strategy, the Ethiopian government highlights that
security policy has the absolute priority as it is a matter of ensuring national survival. Only when
this national survival is secured other policy areas such as economic prosperity, sustainable peace,
and human rights would follow. This statement is paradoxical to what is stated as “our direction is
to move from the internal to what is external, doing our homework (dealing with poverty, hunger
…) first, thereby enabling us to identify our shortcomings” (ibid: 3). In addition, such contradictory
approaches illustrate Ethiopia’s foreign policy and security strategy inclines to focus on state
security with less regard to human security which is inconsistent to the principles of democracy.

Citing other paradoxes, Belachew (2014: 20 – 21) argues that though the Ethiopian foreign policy
and strategy does not clearly define state security and human security, the objectives and pillars of
the Growth and Transformation Plan – One (GTP-I) determine Ethiopia’s security concept.
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Economic growth is one of the pillars of the GTP-I. Thus, economic growth is not only an economic
issue but it is also a national security issue (economic securitization). Based on this
conceptualization, the government argues that in the GTP-I Ethiopia’s national security is
dependent on its economic growth. In this context complex insecurities emerge mainly due to the
contradiction between the policies of the GTP on one hand, and their implementation on the other.
This means, the policies seem human security oriented, but their implementation side is state
security oriented (ibid: 17). Thus, human security is not the basic essence of policy documents and
their implementation tends towards state security.

Likewise, the Anti-Terrorism Proclamation (2009), article 3 emphasizes that Ethiopia’s survival is at
stake if not successful in fighting terrorism. Furthermore, the government’s Rural Development
Policy and Strategies and the GTP theoretically reinforce the significance of economic growth but
the implementation side sticks to national security matters. For example, the press law and civil
society proclamation, all these signify antagonism between human security and state security.

The issue of external migration is the other quagmire of the government. Why people (youth
group, women) migrate to Middle East, Europe, South Africa via Kenya, Somalia, Sudan and other
outlets. External trafficking in women was found to be prevalent mainly for the purpose of
engaging victims as housemaids in Middle East countries. Widespread poverty, unemployment and
the disadvantageous economic and social position of women are the major push factors identified
(Yoseph, Mebratu and Belete, ny: 6). Victims of external trafficking to the Middle East face labor
exploitation, physical and emotional abuse, as well as sexual abuse and exploitation. Related to this
Gabriel (2012: 1580) spells out that in most developing countries, poor economic, political and
social infrastructure, which contributes to poverty, conflict and bad governance force some people
to leave and look for opportunities elsewhere.

No less, internal migration of women and children cannot be undermined. Rural women and
children between the ages of eight and twenty-four, who are either illiterate or discontinued their
education in the early grades, were found to be most vulnerable to trafficking. The intensification
of internal and external trafficking informs existence of gap to comprehensively address the
problem. In this regard, Yoseph, Mebratu and Belete, (ny: 6-7) describe that a comprehensive
policy on trafficking in women and children is lacking in Ethiopia, issues of migration and labor are
not addressed as independent policy issues.

3.2 Foreign Relations Exercises and Experiences on the Ground

In concrete terms, national security is the mainstay of the policy and strategy at the expense of
people’s burdens and sufferings. Put differently, the practice reveals the relegation of human
security for state security, mainly to safeguard the incumbents’ political power. To cite some
instances:

9
 When deportee Ethiopians were mistreated and abused by Saudi government security
forces, the reaction of the Ethiopian government and the Ethiopian embassy was not as
expected. Seleyabna (ny: 2) argues that the foreign and security policy and strategy aims at
eliminating or at least reducing external security threats. It strives to increase the number of
foreign friends that can help to create regional and global atmosphere conducive for our
peace and security. Nevertheless, the appeasement of the government towards Saudi
Arabia during inhuman treatment of Ethiopians, forced eviction demonstrates weak
argument of the above conception.
 In April 2015, the Reaction of the government over the xenophobic attack on foreigners
(including Ethiopians) who reside in South Africa and beheaded Ethiopian Christians in Libya
by the militant Islamic State (IS) group are instances of under-considerations of human
security element;
 No government authorities and security forces were brought to justice when they commit
human rights violations: such as the 1997 E.C post election killings, when Gura Ferda settlers
were uprooted, during university Oromo students protest against the move of Oromia
capital city to Adama, the 2008 E.C Addis Ababa master plan case which resulted in Oromia
region unrest followed by bloodshed, imprisonment and many more;
 A Chinese who killed an Ethiopian was set free and left Ethiopia (a point raised during the
2007 E.C televised election debate). This is typical instance of business prevailing over
citizens’ security;
 With the coming of ethnic nationalism in 1991, violent ethnic conflicts began to rise. In this
regard, David Shinn (2005) outlined the conflicts between the Surma and the Dizi, the Shaka
and the Bench-Maji, Borana and Guji, Anuak and Nuer, between Somali on the one hand,
and the Afar and Oromo on the other as well among Nuer, Anuak and highlanders
(Habtamu, 2013: 11; as quoted in Belachew, 2009; Kassaye, 2004: 23) and the recent
conflict incited between Amhara and Kemant who long lived together.
 በአዲስ አበባ በሚገኘዉ የዲሞክራቲክ ሪፑብሊክ ኮንጎ ኤምባሲ ዉስጥ ተቀጥረዉ ሲሰሩ በነበሩ
14 ኢትዮጵያዉያን ላይ ደመወዝ መከልከልን ጨምሮ ኤምባሲዉ ለፈፀመዉ የመብት ጥሰት የዉጭ
ጉዳይ ሚኒስቴር መፍትሔ አልሰጠም፣ ኤምባሲዉ በዜጎች ላይ ፈጽሞታል የተባለዉ የመብት
ጥሰት በህዝብ ተወካዮች ምክር ቤት በየዓመቱ ቢነሳም የዉጭ ጉዳይ ሚኒስቴር አፋጣኝ ምላሽ
ሊሰጥ አልቻለም (Reporter 24 Tahesas 2008 E.C).
 ሪፖርተር በርዕሰ አንቀፁ “የህዝብን ደህንነት ከመጠበቅ በላይ ሌላ ምን ስራ አለ?” በሚል
ያወጣዉ ጽሁፍ የሚያሳየዉ የዜጎች ደህንነት (Human Security) ምን ያህል አሳሳቢ እና ትኩረት
ያጣ እንደሆነ ነዉ (Reporter 16 Miazia 2008 E.C).
 በ 74 ኢትዮጲያዉያን ምክንያት ታንዛኒያና ኬንያ እየተወዛገቡ ነዉ፡፡ የኢትዮጲያ ዉጭ ጉዳይ ቃለ አቀባይ
ጽ/ቤት ስለ ጉዳዩ መረጃ የለዉም (Reporter 16 Miazia 2008 E.C).
 ባህር ዳር በተካሄደዉ የጣና ፎርም ጉባኤ የኢትዮጲያዉ ጠቅላይ ሚኒስቴር እና የዉጭ ጉዳይ ሚኒስትሩ
በጋምቤላ ግድያ እና ጠለፋ ሆነ በሌሎች ኢትዮጲያዉያንን የሚመለከቱ የደህንነት ጉዳዮች ምንም
አላሉም … (Solomon Goshu, 2008 E.C).
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Despite all these, it is power politics that governs the domestic setting at the expense of human
security. The FANSPS with the government and its branches focus on national security matters. In
addition, when people’s security is undermined and relegated, “the government’s communications
machinery remained passive, sluggish, inefficient and apologetic” (Fortune Newspaper, 22
November 2015). Rather, it appreciates the results of the FANSPS. These are to mention the few
cases which clearly show the failure to abate openly perpetrated spurious practices that weaken
human security. In general, the exercise of pretense and appeasement represents the human
security agenda is not principal concern of the government which is compounded by dearth of
downward accountability.

The paper further argues that though national security is the dominant element of the policy and
strategy, even national interests (including the Assab case before 2002, the Badme issue, the Abay
river and dam building and many more …) are still not well addressed which the FANSPS displaying
gaps. Pointing out the strategic nature of Abay (Nile), Elhance (1999:67) underscores that because
of its unique physical geography and the upstream riparian position, Ethiopia would seem to have
potentially the strongest position in the basin hydro politics especially as the rivers originating
within its territory contribute about 85% of the Nile’s flow. The sensitivity of Abay (Nile) and being
critical national issue, it is always subject to diverse controversy surrounding water use rights,
water share and water agreements.

The Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed in June 2014 in Malabo has been precursor to
the Declaration of Principles (DoP) document presented to Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan. Previously,
the Egyptian cabinet members were assigned to draft the DoP document (might have used the
opportunity to restore their water consumption rate). The draft work (prepared as proclamation)
was sent to Sudan and Ethiopia in August 2014 and Ethiopia formatted the draft document to
Declaration of Principles (DoP), (as quoted in Reporter, Amharic, 20 Megabit 2007 E.C). The DoP
contains 10 Articles presented in their order: principles of cooperation, principles of development,
regional integration and sustainability, not causing significant damage, fair and appropriate use of
the water, the dam’s storage reservoir first filling, dam operation policies, building trust, exchange
of information and data and principles of dam security. From the standpoint of maintaining
Ethiopia’s legitimate rights over Abay (Nile), the DoP lacks the capacity to fully ensure Ethiopia’s
rightful interests. To cite few instances: the DoP did not clearly stipulate the oppressive agreements
of 1929 and 1959, as null and void; it does not include any statement concerning the capacity of
the dam --- its width and height; article 2 restricts Ethiopia to generate power, the term (economic)
development is a vague concept, does it specify power generation or fish farming or agricultural
development or industry build up using the dam water; other than Article 2, other components are
already incorporated in other water related treaties / instruments, with no DoP, they are applicable
provisions (as quoted in Capital 29 March 2015).

11
The recent DoP concluded by Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan has to be seen from a different angle.
Though the domestic media repeatedly pronounces the advantage which Ethiopia secures from the
DoP, there are still inconsistencies that presuppose rigorous attention. Tadesse Kassa 1 in an
interview with Reporter Amharic (20 Megabit 2007 E.C) argues that
1. Ethiopia will be denied not to use 74 BM 3 ton of water reserved in the newly constructed
Renaissance dam; Consequently, we are denied the right to use the reserved water;
2. Industries erected around or nearby the Renaissance dam are not capable to slake their
water needs. As a result, Ethiopia is prevented not to access the water it reserves.

Furthermore, Dr Tadesse points out that restricting the water for power generation is outcome of
relentless struggle waged by the Egyptian government; the Ethiopian government is blamed in
surrendering its national interest: the right to use the water for diverse development schemes.

On the other side, Feqi Ahmed2 argues that the water is restricted to power generation because the
area is not conducive to irrigation agriculture (Reporter, Amharic, 20 Megabit 2007 E.C). Various
studies aver the presence of more than 300,000 hectares of land suitable to agriculture in
Beneshangul- Gumuz regional state. Basically, the government argument is not sound and is not
persuasive. First, in today world, there are technological breakthroughs that make the impossible,
possible through the application of various technology based schemes. Second, just like oil through
pipeline, we can transport the water to places where large tract of irrigable land is available. To
make Abay useful for our domestic purposes means preserving human security which is economic,
food, health, environmental, personal, community and political security of the Ethiopian people.

4. The FANSPS of Ethiopia: Appraising from Within

4.1 The Domestic Setting, an Introduction

The point of reviewing the FANSPS is based on practices and discussions of International relations
studies. In this matter, Fearon (1998: 289-290 and 303) stresses that a significant and growing
literature on international relations (IR) argues that domestic politics is typically an important part
of the explanation for states’ foreign policies … with inclusion of independent variables: the nature
of poverty situation, political economy, good governance, status of party politics, nature of the
electoral system, policy frameworks, and the likes.
____
1. Dr Tadesse Kassa has published a book entitled “International Water Courses Law in the Nile Basin River: Three
States at Cross Roads”.
2. Ato Feqi Ahmed is East Nile basin Directorate Director and represents Ethiopia in the Renaissance dam discussion
held with Sudan and Egypt.
The base of designing new foreign policy and security strategy is to … invert the policy prism from
its traditional outside-in position to a more fitting inside-out arrangement. Using such an approach,

12
problems are analyzed with the center of gravity being local scenario (Fortune, 22 November
2015). Thus, internal factors have profound influence in shaping policies and strategies.

With this fundamental premise, the paper attempts to ascertain the domestic setting by reviewing
it against the 2002 FANSPS document. The disconnection of the policy document from the
domestic situation is perennial problems of Ethiopian governments. Various government controlled
media outlets concurrently pronounce that former governments pursued external relations and
national security policies that disregarded internal problems that were fundamental to our national
condition. Furthermore, previous governments were trying to pursue foreign relations and national
security strategy implemented externally without major and effective in-country efforts. In the
same vein, the current government is no exception.

The foreign relation practice which is widely publicized and discussed is without meaningful
domestic base. It is pronounced amidst of poor governance system, starved democracy, illicit cash
flow, rising corruption, unfair resource distribution, economic malaise (manifested by increased
poverty, weak export sector, problem of food security associated with drought and hunger …) and
poor human rights record, to mention the few. The paper focuses on some selected domestic
challenges that are discussed below.

4.2 Examining the Governance System

The issue of governance is becoming central in any country which embarks in democratizing the
political economy of the state. Journal of Human Development (March, 2007) defines governance
as a co-governance between the government, civil society organizations and the private sectors; it
includes dynamism, diversity and intentionality. Governance marks an intriguing transformation in
focus from micro level to macro-level as well meta-level issues (italics mine). It also poses fresh
challenges to those interested in relating socio-economic outcomes to macro political interventions
(quoted in Hyden, Court and Mease, 2005:7). Likewise, the United Nations Development Program
(1997) has adopted a definition that sees governance as the exercise of economic, political and
administrative authority to manage a country’s affairs at all levels (Ibid, 7). Mo Ibrahim Foundation
defines governance as the provision of the political, social and economic goods that a citizen has
the right to expect from his or her state, and that a state has the responsibility to deliver to its
citizens (IIAG, 2014). The Cairo Agenda for Re-launching Africa’s Economic and Social Development
recognized that democracy, good governance, peace, security, stability and justice are among the
critical factors necessary to create socio-economic development (quoted in Kaleb Demekesa,
2001:16). Thus, governance is decisive in ensuring human security.

A system of governance is classified as good or bad using basic governance tools: accountability,
transparency, responsibility, participation, responsiveness, rule of law (fair justice), efficiency and
effectiveness. Some authors add some more tools, for instance Ibrahim Index of African
13
Governance incorporates four categories: safety and rule of law, participation and human rights,
sustainable economic opportunity and human development. Gupta points out that there is a direct
link between good governance and achievement of human security and bad governance and lack of
governance as major threats to human security (2003:4). Governance cannot be understood
without elements of human security. They are inseparable to ensure people’s rights and
democratic order of the state. In a situation where there is bad governance, Gupta (ibid) further
argues that “the state itself becomes a threat to human security perpetuating bad governance and
lack of governance, systemic corruption, increased unemployment, economic malaise …”.
Therefore, the maintenance good governance is central to ensure better service, enhanced
economic activities, to downsize corruption and unemployment and the likes.

With this conception of governance, the FANSPS, states that … the main threat to our national
interests and existence is our poverty, backwardness and the infancy of our system of good
governance (2002:34). Seleyabna Temesgen (ny: 2) stresses that past governments indulged in
jingoism with an empty stomach, exposing Ethiopians to even greater vulnerability because it was
not in their character to promote democracy, good governance and rapid development. This
government cannot be an exception from previous governments in democracy, good governance,
and others. There were attempts to institute good governance and democracy but derailed by
multiple factors: feebly functioning democratic institutions, ascending corruption, violation of basic
rights, uneven resource distribution and development, internal and external migration of
Ethiopians, widespread poverty, increased unemployment and under-employment as well rising
cost of living. Strengthening this point Gabriel (2012:1580) specifies that in most developing
countries, poor economic, political and social infrastructure, which contributes to poverty, conflict
and bad governance ….

The study of Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) (2004:8) on Governance in Ethiopia illuminate
that a continuing challenge to the government’s development strategy revolves around the issue of
land tenure and governance, as farmers presently cannot own, sell or mortgage land, thereby
discouraging investment and impeding the development of several key sectors, whilst land
reallocation schemes and policies have yet to yield the intended results. Specifically, the private
investment growth rates in Ethiopia have remained low. Some investors have complained through
the Chamber of Commerce about unfair competition from party-affiliated companies and the high
costs, short payment periods, and lengthy bureaucratic procedures involved in acquiring land (ibid:
11). Foreign direct investment requires investment security which a system of good governance is
the principal instrument. A governance system which lacks accountable and transparent system,
rule of law, efficient and effective system of operations cannot be reliable for any foreign and
domestic investment endeavors and it is a threat to investment.

In Ibrahim Index of African Governance (IIAG) from the list of African countries ranks/ scores,
Ethiopia stands 32nd out of 52 states and 31 st out of 54 states in 2014 and 2015 respectively using
14
four conceptual categories that cover a range of governance elements, from infrastructure and
freedom of expression, to sanitation and property rights (IIAG, 2014 and 2015). The rank of
Ethiopia portrays governance level which is a perennial quagmire of the nation. To be specific on
some categories, the Participation and Human Rights category deals with the relationship between
government and citizens. It measures, on the one hand, the extent to which individuals can
participate in, and take ownership of, the political process and, on the other hand, the state’s
achievement in guaranteeing the political and social rights of all citizens. Thus, in the category of
Participation and Human Rights, Ethiopia stood 45 th out of 54 States, scoring 35.7%. Likewise, the
Sustainable Economic Opportunity category captures whether the state provides the conditions
necessary for the pursuit of economic opportunities that contribute to a prosperous and equitable
society. It measures the delivery of sound economic policies and the provision of a sustainable
economic environment that is conducive to investment and the operation of a business. As a result,
in the category of Sustainable Economic Opportunity, Ethiopia stood 23rd out of 54 States, scoring
46.9% (IIAG, 2105: 8 and 10).

Many instances of bad governance can be cited which clearly indicate challenges of the system. To
cite the few: በአዲስ አበባ በ 16 ዘርፎች የመልካም አስተዳደር ችግሮች ጎልተዉ ይታይባቸዋል፡፡ በተለይም
መሬት ልማትና ማኔጅመንት፣ በንግድ፣ መንገድና ትራንስፖርት፣ ዉሃና የፅዳት ማንሳት አገልግሎት …
(Addis Zemen 23 Hidar 2008 E.C); ሌላ ማሳያ ለማቅረብ “ማዕድን ሚኒስቴር በመልካም አስተዳደር
ችግሮች ምክንያት ባለጉዳይ በፍጥነት እንደማይስተናገድ አመነ፣ የማዕድን ስርቆት እንዳለ ተገለፀ…”
(Reporter 24 Tahesas 2008 E.C).

To add another malpractice, the Office of the Federal General Auditor (OFAG) identifies misuse of
public finance outside of finance regulation and tender by various public sectors which inform the
poor financial governance system and gradually encumbering the nation (Reporter 21 Sene 2007
E.C). This is associated with ineptitude of appointees, institutional incompetence and weak control
and evaluation system which further exacerbate the governance situation. As a nation, the
incompetence of leaders and employees is serious issue which has severe consequence on the
governance system. The inability to discharge responsibilities and lack of knowledge based
performance engenders bad governance and progress is unattainable. According to Capital
Newspaper (12 July 2015), the Addis Ababa City Administration Audit Bureau reported three
metropolitan institutions (Water and Sewerage Authority, Education Bureau and HIV / AIDS
Prevention and Control Office) spend 83 million birr in the 2013/2014 fiscal year without any
approval from the city administration. What is the implication of all these malpractices vis-à-vis the
governance system?

Khabele Matlosa, (as quoted in EISA, 2007:12) in a conference proceeding avers governance in
Africa should mean that the governed must participate in all decision making and be consulted at
all stages of policy making. Similarly, David Maleleka, (ibid: 14) argues that when people do not
trust institutions that govern their country, they retreat into apathy, laxity and violence, hence

15
undermining any democratic process under way. Democracy and development are common
currencies in the FANSPS document; how much the government has built the trust of the people on
institutions of democracy, justice and governance. Is the government committed to advance pro-
poor policies and actions? Bill Lindeke, (ibid: 19) suggests that a working and sustainable
democracy for Africa is one that is inculcated from below; a democracy that is amenable to the
everyday demands of the ordinary people for food, clean water and shelter. The recent housing lot
(number 10) and the 20% and 10% down payment required and the monthly Bank credit
repayment vividly demonstrates the government’s discourse and practice totally being
incompatible. At this juncture, who is capable to own condominiums? The possession of low cost
houses is remote and majority of the citizens are relegated to lifelong tenancy. This is how the
domestic situation is transforming and taking shape.

4.3 The Daunting Corruption

As a governance performance indicator, corruption is impacting the Ethiopian political, economic,

social, cultural, environmental… landscapes. In Ethiopia, the rate of corruption has reached to
unbearable level where wealth making is an upshot of open swindling than industriousness. How
such state of governance in general and corruption in particular is foundation to the formulation
and implementation of national polices in general and the FANSPS in particular? Why the 2002
foreign and security policy and strategy document fails to address challenges of the domestic base?

On June 02 2015, the Office of Federal Auditor General alerted the parliament regarding financial
mismanagement by 135 public institutions in 2013 / 2014 fiscal year. It had identified similar
alarming financial operations in its earlier reports. Major culprits for inappropriate expenditure are
the public universities: Jimma, Bahirdar, Dilla, Hawassa, Arba minch, Wolayita and Wachamo
Universities (Capital, 7 June 2015). These government institutions especially universities have
carried out procurement and payments without abiding by the financial directives and guidelines
(EBR, 16 June – 15 July 2016). With all these malicious practices, no action is taken either by the
parliament or the Anti corruption and Ethics commission. In 2007 Ethiopia ranked 138th on the
179-country Corruption Perception Index and it is moving down (Abbink, 2009:5). From this, it can
be deduced that domestic events are mirrors to the foreign policy strengths and weaknesses. What
is happening at home had direct and indirect impact on the overall policy formulation and
implementation.

According released Global Financial Integrity (GFI) report, it identifies that between 2008 and 2012
Ethiopia’s illicit outflows were 1355% of the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flowing into the
country (Capital, 7 June 2015). The country has also lost close to 12 billion dollars since 2000 to
illicit financial outflows, according to Global Financial Integrity (GFI), whose statistics are based on
official data provided by the Ethiopian government, the World Bank, and the International

16
Monetary Fund (Mckenna, 2103). Despite all these embezzlements, corruption per se is not a
challenge. Rather, it serves as a tool of power game to disquiet any threat to the power politics.

Using Corruption measurement tools: Corruption Perceptions Index, Ethiopia ranked 110 out of
170 states which the score is 33/100. The percentage of countries worldwide that scores less than
50 is an indication that the country or countries concerned are in a serious corruption problem
(Transparency International, 2015). Affirming this report the Federal Ethics and Anti-corruption
Commission of Ethiopia has even acknowledged … how corruption has insinuated itself into the
higher levels of officialdom. Furthermore, it outlined areas vulnerable to corruption being land
administration, tax and revenue, the justice system, telecommunications, land procurement,
licensing areas and the finance sector (McKenna, 2013). What is the implication of such
malpractices? Under such horrendous local setting, how can we have progressive and effective
economic diplomacy? This makes the FANSPS paradoxical and self contradictory. Corruption breeds
breakdown of national unity and civil society. Under such state of affairs, the transition to poverty
eradication and social equality is too remote. Rather, people are living under agonizing income gap;
the difference between the 1% haves and 99% have-nots is amplified and will continue.

4.4 The Tumultuous Economy

Many studies and participant observations attest the deterioration of living standard of the people
compounded by fluid inflation. This is further exacerbated by the expansion of poverty all over the
nation in rural and urban areas. In fact, urban centers are increasingly experiencing hidden hunger
which is considered as gradually emerging reality. In this regard, Rivero argues that poverty in
underdeveloped world is beginning to change its rural environment to become increasingly urban is
a matter of grave concern, since this new poverty will be more destabilizing than the traditional
rural poverty (2001:162). However, finding of IFAD (2008) points out that the incidence of poverty
in rural areas is greater and poverty is more severe than in urban areas. There is a uniform
distribution of poverty throughout the country’s rural areas. Most rural households live on a daily
per capita income of less than US$0.50. More than half of the country’s 12 million smallholders
have 1 hectare or less of land. Their productivity is low and they are vulnerable to drought and
other adverse natural conditions. Consolidating the above statement Asmamaw (2004: 26) stresses
that evidence emerging from studies conducted on poverty alleviation in Ethiopia points out that
poverty remains widespread in both rural and urban areas, and will be a major challenge
confronting the country in the decades to come.

A survey done to review Ethiopia’s Governance, outlines that major socio-economic challenge
faced by the country is food supply, as low agricultural production compounded with high
population growth has resulted in a chronic lack of food security. Additionally, the country faces a
serious problem of unemployment that has a severe impact on the socio-economic development of

17
the country (ECA, 2004:3). According to Rivero (2001:165), countries most afflicted by food
insecurity are Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bolivia, Cameroon, Ethiopia … etc. Consolidating this
statement, Poverty Action Network of Civil Society in Ethiopia (PANE) points out that Ethiopia’s
rampant poverty, food insecurity and development problems are structural (2006: 32). In this
regard, Abu Moges (2013:33) highlights that poverty is a pressing public policy concern in Ethiopia
having multiple features and causes related to production, distribution, institutional and policy
factors in the system. The understanding and reduction of poverty cannot be handled unilaterally;
it is multifaceted and interconnected issue which requires appropriate policy and governance
system.

Due to various reasons, from policy matter up to implementation, Ethiopia still suffers from food
insecurity despite government rhetoric. Furthermore, PANE suggests that there must be
fundamental change that cannot be effected by food aid intervention alone. The problems are the
results of cumulative effects and processes that have led to the decline in people’s assets and
collapse of their livelihoods, increasing vulnerability … lack of alternative productive opportunities,
lack of focus in economic management and weak implementation capacity (2006:32). Nevertheless,
Ministry of Finance and Economic Development (MoFED) claims that the declining in income
inequality in urban areas has resulted into a huge decline in poverty (2012:10). Countering
government’s argument Abu Moges (2013: 21) emphasizes that the recent trend in poverty
reduction in Ethiopia strongly suggests that the pace of poverty reduction is weak and has no
momentum. At the current pace, Ethiopia could hardly be able to achieve the core target of the
Millennium Development Goals by 2015 and Sustainable Development Goals of 2030 (italics mine).
Though government declares about reduction of poverty, in Ethiopia one can sense the cost of
living; the income abyss clearly demonstrates the enlarged distance between the haves and the
have-nots. Referring the difference, Asmamaw (2004: 26) remarks that the income disparity
between the various population groups has widened. Demographic pressures and weak
institutional structures have also slowed down economic development and have adversely affected
poverty alleviation efforts in the country.

Despite setbacks in addressing poverty MoFA claims that over the past two decades, the nation had
built a positive image, came out of poverty and backwardness through speeding up development
that squashed number one public enemy – poverty (Ethiopian Herald, 24 May 2015). In terms of
poverty, the official reports indicate that the head count ratio of poverty (the percent of population
below the poverty line) has declined from 45 percent in 1994/95 to 30 percent in 2010/11.
However, a cursory look at people‘s livelihoods across the country (including Addis Ababa) reveals
that things are not as rosy as it is made out in the official reports and that many are unable to
sustain themselves, especially following the rampant inflation that began in 2005 (Alemayehu and
Addis, 2014). Moreover, the reality is different; the economic diplomacy pursued does not bring
major shift and people are not benefitted from the growth which articulated by government and

18
government affiliated media outlets. To make matters clear and to segregate the truth from
fraudulent reports and rhetoric, the following are some of the Instances of failure. These are:
 በሁለተኛዉ ዕድገትና ትራንስፎርሜሽን ዕቅዱ በ 2008 ዓ.ም ይገኛል ተብሎ የተጣለዉ ግብ
የሸቀጦች የዉጭ ንግድ ገቢ 5.01 ቢሊዮን ሲሆን የንግድ ሚኒስቴር በኤክስፖርት ዘርፍ የዘጠኝ
ወራት አፈጻጻም 2.05 ቢሊዮን ዶላር በመሆኑ የበጀት ዓመት ሲጠናቀቅ የ 3 ወራት ዕድሜ ብቻ
እየቀረዉ አፈጻጻሙ ከተጣለዉ ግብ በ 50 በመቶ በታች ነዉ (Reporter 30 Miazia 2008 E.C).
 ኢትዮጲያ ለስኳር ልማት ባላት ምቹነት ምክንያት 10 አዳዲስ የስኳር ፋብሪካዎችን በመገንባት
በዓመት 4.07 ሚሊዮን ቶን በላይ ስኳር አምርቶ ለዉጭ ገበያ በማቅረብ በ 2007 ዓ.ም መጨረሻ
1.2 ቢሊዮን ዶላር የዉጭ ምንዛሬ ለማግኘት ታቅዶ ነበር፡፡ ሆኖም የስኳር ፋብሪካዎችን ግንባታ
እንዲያከናዉን ስምምነት የፈፀመዉ የኢትዮጲያ ብረታ ብረትና ኢንጂነሪንግ ኮርፖሬሽን (ሜቴክ)
በተባለዉ ጊዜ ካለማጠናቀቁም በላይ፣ የስራ አፈጻጸሙና የሚፈፀምለት ክፍያ የማይደራረሱ
ናቸዉ-- 23% ግንባታ ለተፈፀመለት የስኳር ፋብሪካ 94% ክፍያ ተፈጽሟል፡፡ መንግሰት 77 ቢሊዮን
ብር ተበድሯል፡፡ አንድም ፋብሪካ ወደ ምርት ሳይገባ በሚቀጥለዉ በጀት ዓመት (ሐምሌ 2008
ዓ.ም) ጀምሮ 13 ቢሊዮን ብር ዕዳ መክፈል ይጠበቅበታል (Reporter 07 Ginbot 2008 E.C;
Asaminew Gorfu, 2007)
 Information obtained from the Ministry of Trade (MoT) indicated that the country earned
USD 2.99 billion from export in 2014/15. Revenue shrank by 8.1% from 2103/14 export
earnings (Capital 09 August 2015)
 Ethiopia faces a growing trade deficit. In 2011/2012 fiscal year, exports totaled $3.15 billion,
while imports totaled $11.02 billion for a trade deficit of $7.9 billion, a significant increase
over the 2010/11 fiscal year deficit of $5.5 billion (US Department of Commerce, 2013);
 Awet Tekle in an Interview with Reporter (30 Ginbot 2007 E.C) points out the huge
difference between import and export trade which trade deficit amounting more than $ 10
Billion;
 የኢትዮጲያ የወጪ ንግድ ዓመታዊ የምርት ዕድገት (GDP) ሬሺዎ በመዋቅራዊ ለዉጡ ላይ ያመጣዉ
ለዉጥ 12 በመቶ ብቻ ነዉ፡፡ እንዳዉም የወጪ ንግድ ገበያዉ እያነሰ በመምጣቱ እ .ኤ.አ 2008 ከነበረዉ 16
በመቶ አሁን ወደ 12 በመቶ ወርዷል ማለት ነዉ፡፡ ይህም የወጪ ንግዱ የሀገሪቱን ትራንስፎርሜሽን
ለማምጣት አሁን ካለበት 12 በመቶ የዓመታዊ የምርት ዕድገት ድርሻዉ ከ 25 በመቶ በላይ መሆን
እንደነበረበት ሲታሰብ የዘርፉ አፈጻጸም አነስተኛ መሆኑ (Reporter, 30 Ginbot 2007 E.C);
 ለዉጭ ገበያ እየቀረበ ያለዉ ምርት መጠን በጣም ትንሽ ነዉ፡፡ ለዚህ ነዉ የሀገሪቱ የዉጭ ንግድ
የሚፈለገዉን ያህል ስትራክቸራል ትራንስፎርሜሽን ሊመጣ ያልቻለዉ (ibid);

 የዉጭ ንግድ አፈፃፀምና የማኑፋክቸሪንግ ዘርፍ አፈፃፀም የተጠበቀዉን ያህል አለመሆኑ፣ የአንዳንዶቹ
አፈፃፀም ካልተስተካከለ ጥቅል ኢኮኖሚያዊ እድገቱ ላይ ተፅዕኖ የሚያሳርፍ መሆኑ (Yohannes Ayalew,
in Reporter Amharic 21 Sene 2008 E.C)፣
 With an estimated population of 86 million people, 78% of Ethiopians struggle with an
income below US$2 a day (Maxiner, 2013);
 The Ministry of Water, Irrigation and Energy (MoWIE) only achieved 3.9% of its targeted
plan which aims to generate an additional 8,000 MW electric power during the GTP – I
(Capital, 31 May 2015: 4; Brook 2015);

19
  State-owned enterprises and ruling political party owned entities dominate the economic
landscape, reducing room for the private sector to flourish, although many of the
subsidiaries of these entities themselves seek foreign joint venture and equity partners
(Maxiner, 2013);
 According to the World Bank, companies held by business group the Endowment Fund for
the Rehabilitation of Tigray (EFFORT) account for roughly half of the country’s modern
economy (quoted in McKenna, 2013);

 Periodic foreign exchange shortages due to weak export performance and high demand for
foreign currency will continue to present significant market challenges… (US Department of
Commerce, 2013);
 “በአገሪቱ የተፈጠረዉ የዉጭ ምንዛሬ እጥረት በተለያዩ አገሮች የሚገኙ የኢትዮጲያ ኤምባሴዎችና
የቆንስላ ጽ/ቤቶች ላይም የፕሮጄክት አተገባበር ላይ ጫና አሳድሯል” (Reporter 24 Tahesas
2008 E.C);
 The recent revocation of a company, named Karuthuri which owned 300,000 ha of land in
Gambella by leasing, failed to use the land for the intended purpose as well failed to repay
65 million ETB of credit it obtained from CBE; in response CBE has foreclosed the company’s
asset. In addition to this company, Saber Farm PLC, JVL Overseas PTE Ltd and Mella Agro
Development were companies whose licenses were revoked. (Reporter 12 Hidar 2008 E.C;
Fortune 06 December 2015);

 The number of hungry Ethiopians needing food aid has risen with around 7.5 million. The
number has doubled since August with the UN now warning that without action some 15
million people will require food assistance (as quoted in AFP 2 October 2015). Humanitarian
Requirements Documents (HRD) midterm review includes the addition of 16 million people
that require relief food, increasing the number relief food beneficiaries in 2015 to 4.5
million (24 August 2015);
 According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) report,
Least Developed Countries (LDCs) – countries that are identified by the UN as structurally
weak and poor economies…. are 48 of which 34 are found in Africa including Ethiopia
(quoted in Capital 06 December 2015:14); and
 የኢትዮጲያና የጎረቤት አገሮች የኤሌክትሪክ ሽያጭ ሰምምነት ከኢኮኖሚያዊ ይልቅ ለፖሊቲካዊ
ጉዳዮች ያደላ መሆኑን አለምአቀፍ ኤነርጂ ምክር ቤት አስታወቀ (Reporter 15 Tir 2008 E.C).

Against these backdrops, the Government Communication Affairs Office blatantly proclaims that
the Plan on Accelerated and Sustained Development to End Poverty (PASDEP) which had been
implemented during 2002/3-2004/5 E.C had enabled the nation to attain high and sustained
economic growth (GACO, 2012: 51). Nevertheless, Alemayehu and Addis (2014) assert that given
the dependence of growth on rain-fed agriculture as well as low level of domestic resource

20
mobilization (including shortage of foreign exchange), the sustainability of this growth is
questionable…. One has to question and thoroughly ascertain the GCAO’s achievement report
against the concrete impact of growth.

Though government claims accomplishments, the ground realities reflect weaknesses of the
economy. The FANSPS and the achievement report of communication office reiterate Ethiopia’s
foreign policy direction is moving from the internal to what is external. What do we achieve by
doing our homework first? Why not we benefit from the growth claimed by government? These
questions inform that the once designed foreign and security policy and strategy springs from
internal challenges and gaps and fails to address the internal economic challenges, social crisis,
political instability and the likes. Despite these conundrums, government announces rise of middle
class which is a groundless argument; rather masks the true reality. In Ethiopia, there are two
dominant social groups: the haves (those who possess wealth through illicit way and few who
incrementally attain it by hard work) and the have-nots who are languishing under abject poverty
and poor economic life. Apparently, such conditions question the governance system in general
and the essence, performance and gains of the FANSPS in particular.

4.5 Democracy and Human Rights

The FANSPS is formulated to counter the move of foreign government which were “tempted to
take measures that would put our fundamental interests in danger believing that the people can
easily be at each other’s throat and are unlikely to collaborate for a common cause” (2002:35). On
the other side, the document (2002:6) warns that “in the absence of a democratic order, national
and religious divisions will invariably intensify, the abuse of human rights would result in strife, and
poverty would spread further - a recipe for disintegration and destruction”. From this it can be
inferred that the paper and the practice is different which is the puzzling part of the FANSPS. The
state of lack of national consensus and, social justice and where people’s voice is non-perceptible
exhibit derailed democracy and democratization process.

The political system in Ethiopia consists of a multiparty democracy whereby the ruling party allows
other parties to register, but it does not allow them to compete freely for political power (ECA,
2004: 4). The principle of free and fair election remains on paper; rather marred electoral practices
are common. Consequently, the regional and local governments of Ethiopia are constituted under a
one-party system where voters are assisted by the Government-managed electoral authority to
support the election of the ruling party (ibid). Amazingly, one of the chief markers of continued
centralization is the EPRDF‘s conception of ethnic based satellite parties, which run the regional
governments under the supervision of the Central Committee of the ruling coalition. This biased
tendency strictly goes against the underlined tenets of political pluralism; let alone democracy and
constitutionalism (Kaleab, 2010:8). As consequence, such political actions contravene the 1995
constitution which significantly represents liberal values and principles.

21
According to David Shinn assessment, democratization in Ethiopia experienced a major setback
following the 2005 national elections. Although the election process began well, it ended badly.
Consequently, after the 2005 National Election, the EPRDF led government produced three
proclamations related to press, anti-terrorism and civil society (2009). Do these proclamations
support the democratization process? Do Anti-Terrorism Acts balance national security and civil
liberties? Unlike the Ugandan Anti Terrorism Act, the Ethiopian Anti-Terror Law does not define the
term terrorism, rather focuses on its manifestations. It makes it difficult to find out the boundary of
terror acts. The list of terror acts provides space in categorizing every act of opposition as terrorism
which is contrary to the principle and practice of democracy and constitutionalism. A recently
drafted press law providing, among other things, for the imprisonment of journalists who make
reporting errors, has been widely viewed as stifling the free press (ECA, 2004: 23). The government
has sharply reversed a liberalizing trend and subjected independent newspapers and their editors,
publishers, and reporters to renewed harassment, intimidation, and criminal charges (Human
Rights Watch, 2008). The FANSPS assertion of development and democracy does not go along with
these repressive and discouraging proclamations. These proclamations clearly confirm the concerns
of the FANSPS, preserving national security which mainly exemplifies maintenance of the political
power.

The predominance of the ruling party, which controls both the Executive and the Legislature
greatly, influences the activities of the Judiciary (ECA, 2004: 13). The Judiciary is fairly or completely
corrupt, thereby ranking it as significantly more corrupt than the legislative or executive branches
of government (ibid, 15). By law, these institutions are supposed to be independent of the
executive in order to exercise effective oversight on the government, ensure the protection of civil
rights and uphold the rule of law. However, the relative weakness of the legislature in terms of
access to information and lack of experience coupled with the dominance of the executive in
Ethiopian politics has resulted in only limited control by these watchdog organizations (General
Auditor, Budget and Finance Standing Committee of the Parliament, Human Rights Commission and
Office of the Ombudsman) (ibid, 19).

Ethiopia has been a good ally of the United States on a number of issues while it offers challenges
for U.S. policy concerning its human rights practices and pace of democratization. Since 1991 there
have been periodic large-scale arrests of political dissidents … (Shinn, 2009). In addition …the press
remains hobbled and local human rights organizations operate with great difficulty (HRW, 2008).
የአትዮጲያ ስብአዊ መብት ኮሚሽን ላይ ጥናት ያካሄዱት ጌታሁን ካሣ ኮሚሽኑ ነጻና ገለልተኛ ሆኖ የህግ
የበላይነትን ከማረጋገጥ አኳያ ዉጤታማ ስራ ሰርቷል ማለት እንደማይቻል አመልከተዋል፡፡ ኮሚሽኑ ስብአዊ
መብትን ለማስተዋወቅና ለማስፋፋት ትልቅ አስተዋጽኦ ቢኖረዉም በስብአዊ መብት ጥሰት ጥቆማዎች ላይ
ምርመራ በማድረግ ወቅቱን የጠበቀና ተከታታይነት ያለዉ የስብአዊ መብት ይዞታ ሪፖርት በማቅረብና የስብአዊ
መብት ጥሰቶችን የመከላከል ስራዉ ላይ ደካማ እንደሆነ ጠቁመዋል፡፡ ለምሳሌ የፖለቲካ ትኩሳት ያለባቸዉ ጉዳዮች

22
(ለምሳሌ ጉራፈርዳ፣ አምቦ፣ አዲስ አበባ ዙሪያ ባሉ የኦሮሚያ አካባቢዎች፣ ወልቃይት ጠገዴ…) ራሱን ማግለሉ፣
መንግስታዊ ካልሆኑ ስብአዊ መብት ላይ ከሚሰሩ ተቋማት ጋር ጤናማ ያልሆነ ግንኙነት መፍጠሩ እንደ አብነት
ጠቅሰዋል (Reporter 21 Sene 2007 E.C, italicized mine).

Human rights, in Ethiopia, deteriorated with crackdown of peaceful demonstrators, opposition

political party members and leaders. In addition, journalists who are critical of the government
policies and actions are also encountering imprisonment being labeled as terrorists. Gropas (2006:
55) argues that double standards and selectivity are becoming the norm through the anti-terrorism
legislation that has been adopted and through increasingly common practices of indefinite
detentions without trial, special courts based on secret evidence, the absence of sufficient judicial
oversight, inhuman treatment of detainees…, etc. As a matter of fact, the 2009 Anti-Terrorism
Legislation has been used to prosecute and imprison several journalists and political activists over
the past two years; as of May 2013, eleven journalists had been convicted and sentenced since
2011, six in absentia, three of whom were in prison (AAPPG, 2014: 19). In view of this, Article 14 of
the FDRE constitution which stresses about the right to life, liberty and security is disgustingly
violated by the government. The right to freely express opinions and to be critical of government
policies is construed as unconstitutional act. All these actions demonstrate the primacy and
domination of national security (with focus to maintaining political power) over human security
issues.
It is time to observe the real conditions in Ethiopia, for understanding the pressing issues of
democracy, the rule of law and human rights and for assessing the storm beneath the apparently
calm surface. Political space for open discussions is very limited in Ethiopia (Shin, 2009; Lyons,
2006). Nonetheless, the government increasingly narrows and ignores the possibility of conducting
dialogue and discussion with social and political forces. In this regard, Lyons (ibid: 31) warns that
the current path of political repression is not sustainable and may end in violence that will have
spillover effects across the sub-region.

4.6 The National Consensus Showdown

The institutionalization of ethnicity and the implementation of the federal system under ethnic
divide cannot positively support the existence of national consensus. The FANSPS states that the
absence of national consensus on important issues makes us vulnerable (2002:35). What is national
consensus? Does the Ethiopian government promote accommodative politics? Theoretically, the
government claims that the political system is built on democracy and democratic principles. An
internet source, Wiktionary defines consensus as a process of decision-making that seeks
widespread agreement among group members and a general agreement among the members of a

23
given group or community, each of which exercises some discretion in decision-making and follow-
up action. Thus, national consensus presupposes the concurrence of the people; consensual
decisions of national issues are upshot of commonly agreed issues that finally results in stability
and orderly functioning system.

What is the state of national consensus at this historical point in time? The exercise of genuine
democracy confirms that national consensus cannot be realized in the absence of an all-inclusive
political system and pluralism. Pluralism is the coexistence of different ideas and institutions,
managing conflicts through embedding democratic values. In the end, it is natural for the birth and
growth of national consensus.

As it is clearly known, democracy claims genuine political, economic social and cultural pluralism.
Nevertheless, the realities make plain that democratic exercises being increasingly weakened and
in most cases thwarted. How Ethiopia is modeled as champion of internal democracy in
circumstances where there is no free press, choked civil society, stringent anti terror law? Ethiopia
fails to be champion of internal democracy in situation where democracy is not built from below
but top-down, anchored on prescriptive approach. For instance, the opposition camp on top of
their internal problems; they lack stability and strength due to political surgery (being penetrated
by tailored conformist groups) and cautiously removing staunch political groups from the political
scene through different machinations. Such circumstance demonstrates the presence of starved
democracy coupled with absence of national consensus resulting intra state conflicts. In view of
that Kassahun (2012: 79) affirms that the major structural source of conflict in Ethiopia, in both the
past and present, is the absence of an inclusive political system, which could have facilitated efforts
towards fair and democratic contestation for power.

It is believed that if a national consensus is reached upon these fundamental issues, internal
people’s problems can be addressed step by step with the protection Ethiopia and its security.
Nevertheless, the issue of national consensus when seen against ethnic based social, economic and
political arrangements that pervade in all sectors remains to be conundrum to the long established
and woven social fabric transcending ethnic divide. Ethnicity is epitomized as limbo which
accelerates disunity. National consensus does not represent consent of party members but the
whole segments of the public: those who are denied of their identity, from the wretched up to the
affluent, from the illiterate up to elite. In general, it has to include the government, private, civil
society sector centering the people.

National consensus cannot exist in the absence of movements towards national feeling in fact
without undermining ethnic identity. Remarkably, the long fanned national consensus through
marking of ‘nations, nationalities and peoples day’ cannot go beyond short lived joyous feeling. The
finding of national consensus presupposes mobilization of all organized groups and peoples
surrogates for discussion and dialogue to decide on matters that have impact on the entire people.

24
5. Findings of the Study

A fragile and weak domestic state of affairs cannot engender a pragmatic foreign policy that
maintains proficient and thriving foreign relations. This is the crux of the entire discussion. The
domestic state of affairs does not go along with the foundation of the FANSPS; the essence of the
FANSPS and the internal political, economic and social situations are incompatible. Even the foreign
policy document clearly affirms that “It is given that, external threats are extensions of the national
or domestic challenges that we face. External threats are either coupled with domestic challenges
or they exploit our vulnerabilities caused by internal difficulties (2002:35, emphasis underlined).
Furthermore, the FANSPS consolidates the significance of addressing internal elements for effective
realization of foreign relations. Though the document states this way, still the above realities
persist with enormity and type. Thus, this study underlines the continuity of domestic challenges.
As a consequence, the weak FANSPS makes the nation to be vulnerable to all sorts of internal perils
and external difficulties.

Though the FANSPS advocates domestic factors as base for the policy and strategy, practically it
springs from the external security system basically to serve the continuity of the domestic political
power. Thus, the implementation of the national security agenda disregards local elements and
springs from external factors (volatile Horn of Africa, strategic relations with USA, peace and
wrangling with EU, economic colonialism of China, peace and disharmony with Middle Eastern
countries...). In this matter Hengari (2013:14) outlines that … the current leadership should pursue
the transformation of the country’s domestic order, and crucially its foreign policy, to adequately
reflect its own codified (constitutionally stated) democratic aspirations that can potentially pacify
the Horn of Africa.

As observed from policy documents and reports, the human security issue is overshadowed by
national security which sustaining of the political power is a grave factor. Most of the tasks
accomplished vividly exhibit the national security concept as foundation of the FANSPS which the
state is the only referent object, not citizens. If the domestic situation reveals deteriorating
situation, what has to be the source of reference to the FANSPS? The domestic political, social and
economic situation and the FANSPS are in a state of dissimilarity; they symbolize and spell out
differently.

Thus, Ethiopia’s FANSPS portrays the following dilemmas:

1. Disconnected foreign policy and security strategy: The domestic state of affairs does not
support the genesis of the FANSPS; the essence of the FANSPS and the internal political,
economic and social situations are incongruous. As a consequence, the FANSPS is an outside –
inside construct.

25
2. The FANSPS is not and cannot be a democratic instrument amidst of garroted free press,
where people’s rights are violated; the justice system and urban and rural governance is
under question, no fair resource and power distribution, weak economy and many more
deficiencies and malpractices. The FANSPS springs from a domestic setting with manifold
predicaments and fails to overcome the challenges.
3. The Foreign policy and security strategy is dominated by state centric approach; though
national security cannot be compromised, in the meantime it should not overwhelmingly
dominate the human security agenda as it is exercised.
4. The government and party work boundary is not clearly delineated; rather the party work
prevails over the different tiers of the government (federal to Wereda level). The centralist
party system and centralized-decentralized government structure has its own repercussion on
policy making, implementation and outcome.
5. It is identified that the FANSPS is not people centered; it gives citizens secondary status. One
of the predicaments of the government in power is its conception (definition) of people. Who
are the ‘people’? In this matter, Goran, Court and Mease (2005:11) argue that people …
constitute the principal force of development. They must be given the right incentives and
opportunities not only in the economic arena but also the political arena. Development is not
a benevolent, top-down exercise but instead is a bottom-up process. However, as it is
observed and done, for the government the ‘people’ are youth and women forums, cadres
and sympathizers. Obviously, the FANSPS was presented in a form of indoctrination than
public discussion to gather the feedbacks, concerns and aspirations of the Ethiopian people
for policy input.
6. The 2002 formulated foreign policy and security strategy was a personalized document than
having institutional disposition. The policy does not have the character of policy makers’
involvement and inclusion of public opinion. Habtamu (ny: 8) tells us the tradition of directive,
guideline, policy making “As to who the pen-authority of the document was, the general
norm across EPRDF was, as usual, anonymity which also applied to other documents”.
Quoting Reporter Amharic weekly newspaper, he further assures as the Ethiopian
government officially told us that the policy documents were the brainchild of Prime Minister
Meles himself at various occasions after his death (ibid).
7. The conduct of foreign relations entails professionalism and organizational competitiveness.
Nonetheless, in Ethiopia, diplomats are recruited on the basis of party allegiance and ethnicity
than meritocratic system. In addition, party works dominate the diplomatic services. Besides,
the impact of information technology and social media is not well ascertained; the practice of
public diplomacy is short-lived and does not adequately and rightly represent the people in
general and the non-state actors and the private sector in particular. Even if public diplomacy
is attempted, participants are handpicked with no role of the private and civil society sectors
in particular and the people in general.

26
 8. The continued exercise of the FANSPS document enlarges the fissure between the people and
the government, undermines people’s security, triggers conflict and unrest, dwindles
investment, and the diplomatic service fails to support the home environment. Rather, it
serves as a tool of maintaining the status quo.
9. The FANSPS advocacy of national consensus is not supported by action; still vulnerability is
not circumvented. In addition, there are no genuine attempts to institute accommodative
politics and consensual democracy and fair political system that engender peace, stability and
development.

6. The Prospect of Ethiopia’s Foreign Policy

By analyzing the entire content and findings of the study, the paper suggests the subsequent steps
to address gaps and dilemmas as well solidify the strengths of foreign relations. It is presented as
follows.

A. In the first proposition, it is pertinent to re-make a foreign policy that realistically reflect and
spring from the domestic situation and address the persistent challenges. Revisiting of the
foreign policy is not expected to be a change in lingo but a change in essence. To do this,
twin elements are essential prerequisites: working towards national consensus and radical
system overhaul through opening the political space and instituting free and fair election
system short of rigging and fraudulent practices.
B. Domestic – International factors are inducing re-adjustment of the foreign policy objectives,
from exclusive state security to inclusive state and human security. As next proposition, the
likely foreign policy document is supposed to include human security perspective with
national security focus. Here, human security is not a replacement of security issues but
rather a supplement to it.
C. On the third part of the proposition, the introduction of public (organized and non organized
groups) participation in policy debates is quite crucial for healthy government – people
relations, to incorporate concerns of the public, to strengthen bottom – top approach, to
deepen democratic practices, to reverse the involvement of government selected people
who are not genuine ‘representatives’. Thus, during revisiting of the foreign policy
document, the people (representing the different segments) should be part of the process
and participate through genuinely elected public deputies (surrogates). The history and
practices of former and existing parliament fall short of being genuine public representative
body; thus, it cannot take the role of public surrogate.
D. Government is highly obligated to give attention to the internal challenges; find out
appropriate measures to address the domestic problems which are threatening the people’s
economic, social, political, cultural, environmental, and identity… questions. Thus, the re-
crafted foreign policy on one side and government dissociated from overt party influence

27
 with determination to change the home status quo on the other side will support and
reinforce each other.
E. As final proposition, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has to be equipped by endowed
diplomats (qualified and meritorious) than hosting retired party members and affiliates; the
ministry has to re-design the training system so as to develop skill of negotiation, diplomatic
reporting, economic statecraft, communication and media outreach, multilateral diplomacy
of the diplomatic staff. They have to be better prepared for tactical policy co-ordination and
network diplomacy with the intent of addressing the domestic multi faceted challenges.

Conclusions

The making of foreign policy is not an easy task; it is a policy and strategy document which
facilitates the international relations of the state. Hence, the FANSPS is brought into being to guide
the foreign relations of Ethiopia. In exploring the policy, the study identifies inconsistencies of the
document and the real internal situation. As various studies confirm, the path of formulating a
foreign policy document is widely accepted to be an inside – out approach. The FANSPS claims to
be an inside-out, however it is not. To build democratic and inclusive foreign and security policy
and strategy, it has to emanate from the domestic base combined with external factors. Domestic
factors are significant inputs which, contribute a great deal and are decisive elements in foreign
policy making, implementation and outcome.

On the other side, the policy greatly focuses on national security matters with disregard to human
security. The human security agenda requires reframing with clarity in conceptualization and its
jurisdiction, later institutionalization can be put in place. In institutionalizing human security, the
human rights, safety, dignity and welfare of individuals and communities as key elements have
place.

Thus, a foreign policy has to be re-crafted to involve the people and emanate from domestic
political, economic, social, environmental, cultural … situations identified through genuine
scanning. In this process, the re-making of the document is not and cannot be excusive prerogative
of policy makers but has to go through intense popular consultations and debates reflecting the
concerns, aspirations of the Ethiopian people. The bottom – top approach is one of the pillars of
the making. It is time to reverse the negative ramifications and stand for the betterment of
people’s life by redesigning the foreign policy. Put differently, the Ethiopian foreign policy
presupposes transformation through institutionalized approach, having pro-engagement
orientation.

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