Postflop (Volumes 1 & 2)

The Edge you need in No Limit Hold’em

Volume 1
Preface
Part 1: A Map of the Postflop Universe
Chapter 1: The 12 Postflop Dimensions
Chapter 2: The 6 Postflop Decision Scenarios PS1-PS6
Chapter 3: Flop Continuation Bet (C-bet)
Chapter 4: Pot odds
Chapter 5: Postflop Questions
Part 2: Big Hands
Chapter 6: AA
Chapter 7: KK
Chapter 8: QQ
Chapter 9: JJ
Chapter 10: AK/AKs
Part 3: Mid/Low Pairs and hitting the flop
Foreword: Preflop Raise or Limp?
Chapter 11: Playing a Set on a Dry Board
Chapter 12: Playing a Set on an Average Board
Chapter 13: Playing a Set on a Wet Board
Chapter 14: Flopping a FH or 4 of a kind (no trips on board)
Part 4: Mid/Low Pairs and missing the flop
Chapter 15: Full House (Pocket Pair and Trips on board)
Chapter 16: Two Pair (Overpair and Paired board)
Chapter 17: Two Pair (High Card > Pocket Pair > Paired board)
Chapter 18: Two Pair (Pocket Pair < Paired board)
Chapter 19: One Pair (Overpair)

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Chapter 20: One Pair (Pocket pair as second pair)
Chapter 21: One Pair (Pocket pair as low pair)
Summary
Volume 2
Part 5: High Value Flops with no pocket pair
Chapter 1: Four of a Kind (no pocket pair) and Straight Flush
Chapter 2: Full house (no pocket pair)
Chapter 3: Flush
Chapter 4: Straight
Chapter 5: Three of a Kind – Trips
Chapter 6: Trips on Board
Chapter 7: Top two pair
Chapter 8: Top and bottom pair
Chapter 9: Bottom two pair
Part 6: Low Value Flops with no pocket pair
Chapter 10: Two pair (top pair and paired board)
Chapter 11: Two pair (bottom pair and paired board)
Chapter 12: Top pair (Top Kicker)
Chapter 13: Top pair (Strong Kicker, but not Top Kicker)
Chapter 14: Top pair (Weak Kicker)
Chapter 15: Middle pair
Chapter 16: Bottom pair
Chapter 17: One pair – Paired board (two overcards)
Chapter 18: One pair – Paired board (one or no overcards)
Chapter 19: High card (two overcards)
Chapter 20: High card (one or no overcards)
Part 7: Drawing
Chapter 21: General drawing advice
Chapter 22: How game format affects drawing

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Chapter 23: 14 outs or more (strong draws)
Chapter 24: 8-13 outs (average draws)
Chapter 25: 1-7 outs (weak draws)
Part 8: Postflop FAQs
Question 1: When should I double-barrel the turn?
Question 2: When is a “surprise bet” on the turn appropriate?
Question 3: When should I value bet on the river and how much?
Question 4: When should I bluff on the river?
Question 5: When should I “float” on the flop?
Question 6: Do I always C-bet 40% on a dry board and 70% on a wet board?
Question 7: How do you use HUD Data for postflop play?
Summary

Volume 1
Preface
Postflop play is critical for any poker player. Choosing the right starting hands will
only get you so far. As a coach I have taught many players with perfect looking
preflop hand selections, who come to me utterly bewildered as to why they are not
making money. Conversely, there are thousands of players making good profits
using sub-optimum preflop hand ranges. Postflop strategy is complicated and
difficult. In comparison, preflop play, whilst being far from trivial, is much easier
to learn.
Preflop there are only 1,326 possible starting hands, whereas postflop, when you
add in the community cards, there are 19,600 possible flops, rising to 230,300
combinations at the turn and by the river, 2,118,760 possible boards to go with one
hand. And it is not only the raw mathematical numbers that make things more
difficult. A poker player needs to consider so much more when playing postflop
than preflop. It is these complex decision scenarios that we will examine

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throughout this book.
Interestingly, there have been very few attempts by poker authors to write books on
postflop strategy and there have been none, to my knowledge, that present an in-
depth, logically presented guide to postflop play. It is my intention that this book
will change that. This is not a book for complete beginners. In order to get the most
out of the topics presented you should have at least a basic grasp of preflop strategy
and other general No Limit Hold’em concepts. Volume 1 (parts 1-4) deals
predominantly with how to play pocket pairs and volume 2 (parts 5-8) focuses on
non-pocket pairs.
Preflop there are only 1,326 possible starting hands, whereas postflop, when you
add in the community cards, there are 19,600 possible flops, rising to 230,300
combinations at the turn and by the river, 2,118,760 possible boards to go with one
hand. And it is not only the raw mathematical numbers that make things more
difficult. A poker player needs to think about more things when playing postflop
than preflop.
Before I go into specific postflop analysis, I want to make clear the importance of
thought process. Over the many years I have been teaching poker I have become
aware of differences in the way individuals approach poker hands. Let us assume
there are 2 players of equal skill and knowledge: student A approaches a hand by
consciously thinking about the right factors, is able to commentate skilfully and
articulately and arrives at a slow, good decision; student B takes more shortcuts in
his approach and is less conscious of the reasons for his fast, yet often accurate
decision.
Which player would you rather be? Student A is perhaps less likely to make a silly
mistake and more likely to find a logical solution. Student B might be more likely to
make an error, but is more efficient and can multi-task more effectively. Most of us
will not fit into either category quite so neatly, but when we are learning something
new, student A is the one we should be trying to emulate. Student B is not really a
student at all, he is a player only.
A few of you will already recognize this standard learning model:

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These are the accepted stages that we go through when learning something new and
if you are reading, listening to or watching this, you will already be at stage 2 at
least. The point I want to make is that when we are playing poker postflop we are
never entirely competent. We always have something new to learn and so striking
a balance between the final 2 phases is important. If you want to do more learning,
stick around in stage 3 and think actively. It has served me well over the years and
enabled me to continue learning, whilst others go on auto-pilot.
One question some of you may be asking right now is “Yes, but how can I keep
myself thinking actively and not passively – what control do I have over this?” It is
a good question and a lot depends on your learning style and your powers of
concentration. Those who are good at reading books and not drifting off tend to
think actively more naturally. Whether or not you believe you struggle with this, you
should arm yourself with a logical group of questions (which I will be providing in
due course) to help steer you in the right direction. Commentating to an imaginary
audience is another useful tactic which you can try in short bursts.
The way you approach and arrive at poker decisions is more crucial than the
decisions themselves. In nearly a decade of coaching poker I have aimed to provide
students of the game with a map and tools so that they are better equipped to make
smart choices. This book will do likewise.

Part 1: A Map of the Postflop Universe

In this opening part I am going to introduce the 12 postflop dimensions and discuss
them each briefly. I will then discuss the 6 postflop decision scenarios,
continuation-betting, pot odds and provide a list of questions to be used to prompt

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smart postflop thinking. The intention is to provide you with a logical structure for
decision-making before looking at specific hands.
Chapter 1: The 12 Postflop Dimensions

Making a logical list of the factors that govern preflop and postflop decision-
making is an important first step in ensuring that thought processes are well ordered
and complete.
Dan Harrington did a marvellous job of this for preflop play in an early chapter of
Harrington on Holdem Part One entitled “Elements of a Hand”. Whatever type of
poker you play, you would do well to read that chapter as it guides you into thinking
about the right things at the very outset of a hand.
I will now do likewise for postflop play:
1: Tournament Situation
Tournament situation is a constant throughout the hand and is an extra dimension that
makes tournament play more complicated than cash game play. It is particularly
important in SNG tournaments or in ICM (Independent Chip Model) intense
situations, such as the money bubble, when it can override all the other factors. It is
the reason why cash games and tournaments should be played differently. In truth, it
affects preflop strategy far more than postflop strategy, but if you are playing in a
tournament, this crucial dimension provides the framework for all the other factors
and must not be ignored.

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SNG players will find that conservative preflop and postflop play lends itself well
to the early stages, whereas aggressive play is more suited to the later stages. This
dimension can sometimes engulf all the others and force an optimum betting line
which may seem entirely unnatural to a cash game player.
Although you should always consider your own tournament situation, you should
also be aware of the tournament status of each opponent in order to understand the
dynamics of the table. This can help to determine whether you should be playing a
hand aggressively or defensively.
Learning how tournament situation affects decision-making takes time and effort.
Studying ICM and putting in lots of practice are the best solutions.
2: Number of Opponents
Knowing how many opponents are on the flop is a relatively simple task. The more
opponents there are on the flop, the lower the percentage chance you have of
winning a hand either through showdown or through non-showdown. On the other
hand, your potential reward increases. Bluffing in multi-way pots is less successful
and the player who genuinely has the best hand will tend to win more often.
3: Relative Position
Postflop once you have determined the number of active opponents in the hand, you
should consider your position relative to each opponent. You will always be either
in position or out of position relative to an opponent and it is essential that you
make a mental note of this. You should be far more willing to proceed in a hand
when you have position. If you have position, you will tend to make more profit.
4: SPR
I want to introduce the concept of SPR which some of you will have heard of. It
was a concept first introduced to us by Ed Miller in his book, Professional No
Limit Hold’em: Volume I. Preflop, we tend to talk about effective stack size in big
blinds, or M value, but postflop the most useful measure is known as the SPR or
“stack to pot ratio”. It expresses the risk/reward ratio. The higher the SPR, the
greater the risk and the less willing you should be to go to showdown.
SPR (Stack to Pot Ratio) Relative Risk
0-3 Very low
4-6 Low
7-10 Medium
11-14 High
15+ Very high

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Turbo tournament players will find that most flops they see will have very low
SPRs and consequently they should be very aggressive postflop and willing to go to
showdown with marginal holdings. In reading this book, turbo players should focus
in on low SPR situations. In deep-stacked spots, flops will tend to have a much
higher SPR and so more caution is required. In addition, there is more “betting
space” for carefully constructed betting lines including bluffs and semi-bluffs. The
higher the SPR, the more room for manoeuvre there is. Always remember to
measure the stack size using the effective stack. The effective stack is simply
the smaller of two stacks. In multi-way pots it is slightly more complex as it is a
relative term, so it depends on from whose perspective you are viewing. If this is
confusing, think of it as simply the maximum number of chips you can win or lose
from an active opponent.
If I flop top pair with a low SPR, I am likely to be willing to gamble with my entire
stack, whereas if the SPR is medium or high, I will be far more cautious before
committing too many chips into the pot with just one pair. In the same way that you
use number of big blinds or M value on a push/fold chart in short-stacked preflop
play, so too you can use SPR to help gauge your commitment to a hand postflop.
Neither are the only factors to consider; but both are hugely significant.
In very high SPR situations, huge showdowns are rare as players are only willing
to commit huge numbers of chips with premium hands such as full houses or nut
flushes. In medium or low SPR spots, far more hands go to showdown as players
are happy to gamble with much weaker holdings.
For advanced players, studying SPR levels to help forge optimal preflop raise sizes
is a useful activity. You should aim for low SPR levels when playing hands where
you are trying to hit top pair eg ATo and high SPR levels when you are playing
drawing hands eg 67s.
Cash game players are accustomed to SPRs well in excess of 15. Indeed my
definitions of low, medium and high are somewhat low for cash games, where an
SPR 15 might only be considered medium to high. The definitions themselves do
not matter. What matters is that you learn how the SPR affects your commitment to
different hand types and adjust your play accordingly.
If you are thinking properly postflop you will be performing a constant mental
comparison between the pot size and the effective stack size.
5: Opponent Information
This dimension ties in very closely with number 8 (opponent’s range) and it is
absolutely fine to combine dimensions as long as you understand what you are
doing. The reason I choose to separate them is that there are two distinct focus
points when it comes to opponents. First, I want to know very broadly what type of

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player they are and how they are likely to behave generally. That is this dimension:
the player profile.
Normally when I assess an opponent I use the HUD statistics VPIP and PFR and I
only look into more detail if I have over 100 hands of information. Small sample
sizes are often misleading. All I really want to do is define each player as tight,
normal or loose. Colour-coding your HUD will help with this.
Against tight players, you should tend to adopt more aggressive or probing
betting lines; against loose players, you should tend to play more defensively.
This information can be powerful enough to override other factors and dictate your
optimum play.
6: Preflop and Postflop Betting
There is a huge amount of information to aid decision-making postflop. A common
weakness I notice in players is a tendency to forget or to overlook the betting
history from previous streets. You should treat each new hand as a new jigsaw
puzzle. Your opponents are giving you pieces of the jigsaw every time they act and
so before acting yourself, you should be using that information to try and complete
the puzzle. This active thinking approach will help you start to “see a picture” and
define your opponent’s hand. If you are playing on auto-pilot, you are going to be
more prone to missing vital clues.
Disengage auto pilot, at least whilst you are learning. In time, the correct thought
processes become engrained in your memory and will begin automating. Both good
habits and bad habits automate over time. Try and remain conscious of what is
being done on auto pilot, so you can actively fight against it when you need to.
In the next chapter, I am going to demonstrate how you can combine this dimension
with number 3 in order to compartmentalise postflop situations into just 6 postflop
scenarios.
7: Your Hand Strength
Players at all levels will often look straight away at their hand strength when a flop
comes down. This is by far the most ‘visible’ of the dimensions and as such,
requires little discussion.
My advice would be to spend as little time as possible focussing on your hand
strength and more time on whichever of the less visible dimensions you tend to
overlook.
8: Opponent’s Range and Likely Strength
When assessing opponents we can be more streamlined in our thoughts postflop
than we can preflop. Often we can focus in on just one opponent and think about his

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preflop range and postflop expected aggression level, perhaps making use of some
specific HUD data eg his percentage fold to continuation bet.

Nevertheless, assessing your opponent’s range is a thankless task for two reasons:
first, you are ultimately playing a guessing game and will be wrong frequently; and
second, your opponent will not always show you his cards, so your capacity for
learning and gathering information is hindered. In spite of this, it is a vital part of
your postflop analysis and you must be steadfast in your commitment to putting
opponents on ranges, no matter how frustrating it is.
Using relevant statistics from your HUD can assist you in the process eg if your
opponent 3-bet preflop, look at his 3-bet statistics, consider his profile, position
and situation and make an educated assessment.
Practice, use range tools and be patient.
9: Texture of Flop
The texture of the flop is another vital dimension which affects some of the other
dimensions and causes a great deal of complication. Try to define broadly whether
a flop is dry, medium, wet or very wet. The more possible draws there are, the
wetter the board is, so a flop of Ac 8d 2h is extremely dry, whereas a flop of Ts Js
Qs is super wet.
Dry boards with a high card are usually good for a raiser, whereas wetter boards
with low cards suit players playing wide ranges and speculative hands.
Normally dry boards are better for bluffing into as your opponent will not have
connected with a dry board as often as he will with a wet board. Wet boards are
more dangerous for the same reason.
Bet sizing is affected by the texture of the flop. Smaller bets (40 to 50% pot size)
are usually suitable for dry boards, whereas larger bets (60-75% pot size) tend to
work better on wet boards.
Wet boards can be more dangerous to commit to as there is a higher chance that an
opponent will either hold a huge hand or be drawing to a huge hand. Holding top
pair on a wet board is therefore much weaker than holding top pair on a dry board.
10: Odds and Outs
This is a dimension that is frightening to the novice, yet requires much less attention
from an experienced player. As soon as a flop hits and I hold a draw, I know
immediately how many outs I am likely to have against different hand types and
what my percentage chance of winning is. This is the result of years of practice and
understanding some basic numbers:

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 Outs 1 Card To Come 1 Card To Come 2 Cards To Come
(flop) (turn) (flop)

1 2.1% 2.2% 4.3%

2 4.3% 4.3% 8.4%
3 6.4% 6.5% 12.5%
4 8.5% 8.7% 16.5%
5 10.6% 10.9% 20.4%
6 12.8% 13.0% 24.1%
7 14.9% 15.2% 27.8%
8 17.0% 17.4% 31.5%
9 19.1% 19.6% 35.0%
10 21.3% 21.7% 38.4%
11 23.4% 23.9% 41.7%
12 25.5% 26.1% 45.0%
13 27.7% 28.3% 48.1%
14 29.8% 30.4% 51.2%
15 31.9% 32.6% 54.1%
16 34.0% 34.8% 57.0%
17 36.2% 37.0% 59.8%
18 38.3% 39.1% 62.4%
19 40.4% 41.3% 65.0%
20 42.6% 43.5% 67.5%
21 44.7% 45.7% 69.9%
22 46.8% 47.8% 72.2%

You should either learn the table above or alternatively, you can always use the “4
and 2 rule” by multiplying your number of outs by 4 on the flop and by 2 on the turn.
This gives you a rough estimate of your percentage chance of improving your hand.
Note that this is not always the same as your percentage chance of winning the
hand, which will of course also depend on your opponent(s)’s hand(s).
You do not need to be good at mathematics to master this; you simply need some
basic arithmetic skills.
Whatever your hand strength is, you ought to be thinking about how likely you are to

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win the hand at showdown. This is a factor in determining whether you should
proceed in the hand or not. I always like to estimate my percentage chance of
winning through showdown as it is fairly easy to do and very useful information.
The more difficult part is assessing the raw pot odds of drawing to a hand. To do
this, you have to compare the amount to call with the effective pot size and
ensure that you have enough equity (your equity you can calculate with the “4” and
“2” rule) to justify calling.

I will return to this equation soon and I will show you ways of simplifying it, so
that pot odds can be calculated more easily whilst playing.
As a final note on odds and outs, make sure that you also consider odds and outs for
your opponents’ hands. If you believe an opponent is drawing to a flush, make sure
you bet enough to take away his odds for calling (plus a bit more to take away any
implied odds he may have).
11: Implied Odds
Whenever there is future betting in a hand, there is a need to foresee “what might
happen if…”. Implied odds are a branch of the raw pot odds discussed in
dimension number 10.
If you believe you will make no extra money after hitting a draw you have no
implied odds.
The more money you think you can extract, the greater your implied odds.
When your draw is disguised, you will tend to have better implied odds. Position,
board texture, opponent’s profile, betting history and opponent’s likely holding are
all important when assessing implied odds.
In general, you should just add a little bit to the raw pot odds, so you should be
slightly more willing to draw to a hand with borderline pot odds if the implied
odds are good. I do not recommend attempting to “calculate” implied odds. It can
be done, but your time can be better spent elsewhere.
When you suspect your opponent is drawing, consider the reverse implied odds of
his draw. If you hold a set, you will be far more reluctant to fold on future streets if
an opponent completes a straight or a flush.

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12: Betting Lines
An understanding of common betting lines will significantly enhance your postflop
play. Here is an example of a betting line and the terminology:
R/B/BC/F (Preflop Raise/Flop Bet/Turn Bet then Call/River Fold)
The 4 streets always appear in order (preflop/flop/turn/river) separated by a
forward slash. The betting is displayed using abbreviations. Here are some
common and less common examples:
Abbreviation Action
R Raise
C Call
B Bet
X Check
F Fold
XC Check then Call
XR Check then Raise
XF Check then Fold
BF Bet then Fold
BRR Bet then Raise then Raise
XRF Check then Raise then Fold
RRF Raise then Raise then Fold
CC Call then Call

Where multiple abbreviations appear for one street, remember that the actions
represent only the hero’s actions, so when there are multiple opponents there are a
large number of permutations.
It is important to understand your relative position and the preflop betting history
when considering betting lines.
Some betting lines are generally profitable, whilst others are loss-making. Studying
which lines are appropriate in different types of situation can significantly enhance
your postflop skills. Instead of relying on hand strength to make decisions, you will
be armed with a more powerful tool. The most common example is the continuation
bet (R/B/?/?) which is widely understood to be a profitable line, especially in
position, but I will be exploring betting lines in more depth throughout the book.
As an extension of betting lines, bet sizing is also an important topic and almost a
dimension in its own right. I will discuss bet sizing throughout the book. Very few
online players track variations in bet sizes on their HUDs (it is restrictive and

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requires huge sample sizes), so unless you play at a high level do not be afraid of
becoming readable by varying your own bet sizes. Optimum play involves varied
bet sizes.
In general bet sizes are most profitable around 60% to 80% of the pot size. If
you are ever in doubt, you should stick to around this size.
If you routinely bet the same amount regardless of the situation in front of you, then
you are most likely neglecting to think through hands in enough detail. In any turn-
based strategy game you should be thinking several moves ahead. Your bet size
should be considered carefully when you make a postflop action plan.
These 12 dimensions should drive postflop decision-making. Familiarise yourself
with them, immerse yourself in them and learn to order your thoughts according to
their laws.

Chapter 2: The 6 Postflop Decision Scenarios PS1-PS6

Every postflop decision can be broadly bracketed into 6 categories, dependent on
who the preflop aggressor is, your relative position and the action facing you. To
visualize this take a look at this slide from a powerpoint presentation located on my
youtube channel here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n73ajJOwsgQ&list=TLQXywKuQyVck

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This is so integral for the full understanding of this book that I have included
another visual representation of this with a flowchart of the 6 scenarios:

C-bet = Continuation Bet, XF = Check-fold, XC = Check-call, XR = Check-raise,

X = Check
This flowchart divides postflop play up into 6 categories and in reading this book
you should always try and be aware of which category is being discussed.
Sometimes in multi-way pots, a hand might not fit neatly into a particular category
as you can be both in and out of position simultaneously, but this complication is
manageable and should not deter you. When this happens, simply consider yourself
in more than one postflop scenario at the same time and perform dual analysis.
I will now focus briefly on each of these 6 decisions in turn, providing some
general guidance on how to choose an appropriate option. The remainder of the
book will give much more specific guidance and will be ordered not by these 6
situations, but by hand strength. This puts some onus on you, the reader, to
recognise which scenario is being discussed.
Try and commit to memory these 6 scenarios, henceforth to be known as PS1
through to PS6. If you can do this, not only will it aid your understanding of this

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book, but it will also compartmentalise and strengthen your thought processes when
faced by postflop decisions. You will develop an advanced understanding of strong
betting lines for each postflop scenario.
1: Preflop Raiser in Position, Defender Checks (PS1)
The first category is the choice between making a C-bet in position or checking
behind and seeing the turn card. It is the optimum postflop scenario as you are the
aggressor, you have position and your opponent has displayed weakness. This has
been written about extensively and many of you will already know that a C-bet on
the flop is more profitable than checking in around 80% of cases. If you are ever in
doubt, you should C-bet unless you have more than two opponents and have missed
the board.
2: Preflop Raiser in position, facing a donk-bet (PS2)
PS2 is still a strong postflop scenario, but much depends on what your opponent’s
bet means. Player profiling is important when responding to a donk-bet. Good
players tend not to donk-bet without a strong hand, so you can sometimes simply
fold if you have missed the flop. If you have a good sample of hands on your
opponent, you can use the donk-bet percentage statistic to help decide. Anything
less than 10 percent is likely to be at least top pair.
Sometimes players donk-bet regularly as a way of potentially winning the pot with
a single cheap bet and they can best be combatted with a raise. The raise will give
you the most information about your opponent’s hand and allow you to continue to
represent a strong hand. If there are lots of draws on the board your opponent may
be looking for a cheap card, hoping that you fold or call behind. This is particularly
true of small-sized bets (10 to 30% of the pot).
If you have made a pair or better on the flop then you should generally be raising all
donk-bets.
If you are holding a drawing hand or a marginal holding and wish to see another
card cheaply, then calling may well be the best option. You might have to deal with
some tricky decisions on the turn and river, but you have position and that makes it
a lot easier.
3: Preflop Raiser, out of position (PS3)
PS3 is difficult to play as you are out of position, but being the aggressor
compensates for that a great deal.
Building up a pot when playing out of position is not always a good plan, but
failing to C-bet is failing to do justice to the chips you have invested preflop.
When you have completely missed the flop, C-betting is usually your best option as
a bluff unless there is another reason not to C-bet. If called, you are likely going to

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have to give up on the pot unless the turn card brings you something.
When you have hit the flop, you need to consider how profitable it is to C-bet as
opposed to check-raising, check-calling or even check-folding. If you have hit a
monster flop or a big flop with few dangers, I often employ these options when out
of position as I make more chips than if I C-bet and it balances my weak checks.
The downside is that your opponent might check behind you, but if you are choosing
low-risk flops to do this, you will rarely be hurt by the turn card and can simply C-
bet the turn (delayed C-bet).
You can and should check-fold flops on occasion, especially if more than one
opponent is still active in the hand. If you have already made the decision not to C-
bet, then you should already have made the decision as to whether you will check-
fold, check-call or check-raise. Sometimes you will be forced to change your mind,
but make sure you have a game plan. If those postflop questions are running through
your mind, you will most likely have that plan.
Check-calling is rare after a preflop raise, but useful when you have hit the flop and
you want your opponent to take over the betting. Try and avoid using it when
drawing with a weak hand. If you raised preflop, you should generally be making a
C-bet. When you check-call you should be reasonably happy to see another card
and will normally be ahead already. It works particularly well against aggressive
opponents. Choosing between check-calling and check-raising is not always
straightforward. Your desire to see the next card should be a driving factor. If you
are happy to see the card and do not particularly want to increase the pot size,
check-calling can be smart.
Normally you should have a very strong hand to check-raise, but check-raising light
has become more popular and is a play I have had a lot of personal success with.
There will be plenty of discussion on this subject throughout this book.
Traditionally, you should check-raise when you have 2pair or better.
Check-raising some flops on a bluff or semi-bluff can also be a very profitable play
against aggressive opponents who have a lot of trash in their C-betting ranges and
who are also capable of folding. It has the advantage that it tends to shut down the
hand early, which will often suit you when playing out of position. It has advantages
and disadvantages over 3-betting light preflop. If you do not really want to see a
turn card it can be a good option. Try not to check-raise only with monster hands
and look for some balance. You should check-raise the flop with a combination of
very strong hands (2 pair or better) and semi-bluffs eg 2 overcards or a drawing
hand.
4: Preflop defender in position, facing a C-bet (PS4)
As always, you should be focused on establishing a range for your opponent and

18
assessing how likely he is to have connected with the flop. To do this, you should
consult your HUD stats for guidance. What are your opponent’s PFR and C-bet
percentages? How about his overall aggression, WTSD% and W$WSF?
If you have completely missed the flop and you do not have many ways to win the
hand at a showdown, you should consider how likely it is that you can win the pot
by bluffing. Very frequently you should choose to fold, but if you are fairly sure
your opponent has missed the flop, you can consider a bluff-raise or a call. At the
top level, players learn to flat-call missed flops (floating), knowing that they can
use their position to knock an opponent off their hand on the turn or river.
If you still have at least overcards or a piece of a draw, you have the opportunity to
win the hand through showdown as well as through non-showdown, so you can
choose to call as an alternative to folding. Your opponent will frequently check the
turn, allowing you to take over the betting but if he fires another bet at the turn or
check-raises you, you must likely fold at this point.
If you have connected with the flop you can choose between calling and raising
depending on your desire to build a big pot, how important it is to protect your
hand, how much you wish to see another card and, as always, your opponent’s
profile. Against a very aggressive player, just calling can be the most profitable
play as he may continue to throw chips at you on the turn or river.
If you are sat on the big blind playing against the small blind, this betting pattern is
common and you should be much less inclined to fold since your opponent was
likely stealing from you with a wide range.
5: Preflop defender, in position, opponent checks (PS5)
A knowledge of your opponent and in particular his C-betting habits is useful in this
situation. An opponent with a high C-bet percentage is more likely to be showing
weakness in this spot than one who regularly declines to C-bet out of position. In
most cases it is going to be correct to make a stab at the pot with a small bet,
especially in unraised pots. If you bet half the pot size it only needs to work 33% of
the time to show a profit, purely as a bluff. Even when your hand is quite strong and
you are tempted to check behind and slow play your hand, it will often be more
profitable to make the bet. Betting in PS5 is certainly the default play. You should
be aware, though, that it can be exploited by opponents who check-raise frequently
in PS3.
6: Preflop defender, out of position (PS6)
For simplification purposes, I have kept the number of postflop decision scenarios
down to 6. PS6 in particular could be sub-divided according to whether the pot
was raised or unraised preflop.

19
Choosing the right option on the flop is the most crucial part of postflop
strategy and it is never more awkward than in scenario number 6 (which is why
you should avoid it by trying not to call too many raises preflop out of position).
Reassess the quality of your hand and ask your postflop questions. You will need
to consider how likely a C-bet is to happen, what your opponent’s aggression factor
is and, if you are strong, how dangerous it would be should he check behind you.
You should also consider the impact of a donk-bet. I rarely donk-bet into a regular
opponent when I am strong as he will see it as being out of the ordinary (I donk-bet
5% of the time) and suspect strength. Donk-betting generally makes less money
than either check-calling or check-raising and a large percentage of very good
players almost never donk-bet. It can be appropriate in situations against preflop
raisers with low C-bet percentages.
In limped pots, leading the betting is not technically a donk-bet and is far more
commonly an acceptable play. You should be wary of building a large pot out of
position, but protective of your hand on wet boards and in multi-way pots.
The check-raise is normally a good weapon when you have a very clear direction
in the hand. You may be bluffing or you may have a genuine hand, but when you
check-raise you should have a vision of how you are going to proceed. You may be
trying to build up the size of the pot (which is an issue when playing out of
position), you may be looking for further information from your opponent(s) by
forcing another round of betting or you may be semi-bluffing, but you must have an
action plan. One of the main advantages of the check-raise over the check-call is
that it tends to shut down the betting earlier, which can be beneficial when playing
out of position. It is a good option when you do not wish to see another card and the
play is likely to be very difficult on the turn and river (see postflop questions). I
will often check-raise a high percentage of flops on a bluff or semi-bluff when my
opponent is C-betting a huge range of hands eg during heads-up play.
The check-call fits many different scenarios and is a weak, passive action that you
should try not to overuse. It is less decisive than the check-raise and gives you less
information about your opponent’s hand. It can lead to you playing a guessing game
on later streets, especially if your opponent connects with the turn or river card.
Facing players who C-bet high percentages you can “float” or check-call a wide
variety of flops just to wait and see whether your opponent shows weakness on the
turn. It is very effective against players with high aggression factors playing loose
ranges (LAG players).
In conclusion to this chapter, I want to note that pots involving preflop 3-bets (and
less commonly 4-bets and 5-bets), still fit into these 6 categories, though the
postflop betting will be influenced by the increased pot size and most importantly,
the narrowing of the opponent’s range. Ideally, you want to avoid being the

20
preflop defender in 3-bet pots.
Chapter 3: Flop Continuation Bet (C-bet)
Most of the important pots you play in you will be the preflop raiser. When you are
the preflop raiser you ought normally to be making a continuation bet. C-bets
remain very profitable in modern poker for the simple reason that opponents miss
flops 2 out of 3 times. In most cases the C-bet ought to be 40-50% of the pot size on
a dry board and 60-75% on a wet board. Tend to choose a higher size playing out
of position when you do not welcome a call (most of the time).
C-bet size % Success Required to be
Profitable
40 29
50 33
66 40
75 43
100 50

This is simple, standard advice which experts agree upon and my database
statistics also back up. The rest of this chapter is devoted to situations when you
might want to deviate from this. Note that the % success required to be profitable
refers only to the bluffing value of the bet (ie how often your opponents fold) and
does not include the additional benefit of any showdown value.
A few years ago I made a video presentation for sitngogrinders now purchased by
husng.com entitled “No C-bet”. In the presentation I outlined 8 different scenarios
in which you may choose not to C-bet. All of these situations will recur in
examples throughout this book, but it is useful to examine them altogether:

21
Monster flops include flopping a full house or 4 of a kind are often best checked.
Your opponent will very rarely have connected with this type of flop and is going to
check-fold the vast majority of the time against a C-bet. A C-bet will win a small
pot and reduce the likelihood of winning a huge pot. Sometimes by allowing one
more card to fall, the villain picks up a draw, hits something on the turn or starts
bluffing and the action can start. If your opponent has a very low Fold to C-bet
percentage though, it will be best to continue with a C-bet.
On big flops with few dangers, a C-bet might be less profitable than a check. If
you think you are going to win between 75 and 95% of the time at showdown,
sometimes checking the board can induce your opponent to go bluffing at the turn or
river. Later in the book I will examine this risk/reward ratio in detail.
Being out of position is a huge reason for choosing not to C-bet. When you do
choose to C-bet, you should often choose a larger bet size than if you were in
position. 70 to 100% of the pot is often a sensible size of bet to choose as you will
be far more successful in shutting down the pot early. The other way to shut down
the pot early is to try and check-raise, which is a popular and risky alternative to C-
betting. Check-raising can be a good strategy when you have overcards or a draw.
Your opponent’s range and profile will also play a key role in helping with your
decision.
Wet flops which you have missed, including really horrible flops are sometimes
not worth C-betting. You need to think hard about your opponent’s likely range and
how likely they are to fold to a C-bet. The C-bet is probably going to be your last
attempt to win this pot, so assess whether it is profitable as an outright bluff.
Remember that your opponent may not be enjoying the flop too.

22
Dry boards for pot control / limit damage in spots when you are not committed to
the pot. This will usually be the case in deeper-stacked situations. Electing not to
C-bet these flops is a form of pot control to avoid losing huge pots early on against
a player who may be a long way ahead. You are controlling the pot to a smaller
size. This is a useful ploy at the start of SNGs as avoiding going broke is a priority
even if C-betting might offer slightly more +EV. Sometimes your weakness induces
bluffs on the turn or river and you are able to make more chips, but often you will
end up winning or losing a smaller pot. This includes paired cards on the board
which fit with your opponent’s calling range.
Aggressive opponent(s) are another possible reason for showing weakness when
you are strong. This category should be used in conjunction with monster flops or
big flops. Many players read a missed C-bet as a sure sign of weakness and will
bluff or overplay their way through the rest of the hand. On the flip side they will
also attack your C-bets, so you should examine their Fold to C-bet percentage
before deciding. If it is significantly below 50% you should keep betting. On flops
you have missed, where it is almost impossible to make an opponent fold by
making a C-bet, it may be more profitable to give up on the pot with absolutely no
attempt to win the pot postflop.
Multiple opponents are one of the biggest categories of flops that you should
consider not C-betting into. They are complex and I will be examining plenty of
them in this book. There are substantially more variables to assess, but as a general
rule you should try and ensure that you have at least 6 outs as the bluffing value of
the C-bet is usually reduced to around break-even and often worse. Your position is
critical as a C-bet has even lower success rates playing out of position.
If the tournament situation dictates that you would prefer to play a small pot,
not C-betting is a means of controlling the pot size to your ends. This is especially
true in ICM intense pots during SNG games when your desire to stay alive far
exceeds your desire to win the tournament. Pot control is far easier when you are in
position. Even when a small pot is desirable, you should still be opting to C-bet
most of the time.
Potential No C-bet category How frequently should you C-bet?
Monster Flops 25%
Big Flops with few dangers 75%
Out of Position 60%
Missed, wet, horrible flops 40%
Dry boards for pot control 85%
Aggressive Opponent(s) 75%
Multiple Opponents 50% *

23
 Small pot desirable 75%

* more often against 2 opponents, less often against 3 or more

So even within these potential No C-bet categories, you should still make your C-
bet (normally 40 to 75% of the pot) most of the time. Some accomplished players
like to C-bet 100% of flops for “balance” but this is a lazy solution. There is more
than enough balance in a 70, 75, 80 or 85% C-betting range. That means that the
hands you choose not to C-bet with are still going to be a mixture of strong, medium
and weak holdings and thus keep your opponent(s) guessing. C-betting 100% of
flops is good, but ultimately not as good.
Chapter 4: Pot odds
Some people have a fear of the mathematical side of the game. Most of the time
decisions are “obvious” or require little or no mathematical analysis. As a result,
we can become lazy and avoid thinking mathematically. Our brains like to fuse
shortcuts and follow the simplest path to a solution, rather than embarking on a
more challenging journey.
If we force ourselves to do some calculations, our brains get used to it and quickly
become more efficient. Poker players with sharp arithmetic skills make smarter
decisions. So practice, on and off the table.
Pot odds can be calculated at the table. If you have a program that does it for you,
that is fine, but it is useful to be able to do it yourself. There are different
approaches to calculating pot odds, but the one I teach expresses pot odds as the
percentage equity needed to call. This makes a comparison between your
perceived equity and your pot odds far easier to perform, as both are expressed as
a percentage.
Before I simplify this, I want to show the mathematical equation for calculating pot
odds:

Understanding pot odds is not nearly as difficult as it may first appear. There are
two numbers you need to know, both of which may be displayed on the screen if
you are playing online. These are the total effective pot and the amount to call.
All you really need to do each time is to divide the total pot by the amount to call.

24
Pot odds is simply an extended expression of the relationship between these two
numbers. Have a look at the table below which shows pot odds in fractional form
and in terms of percentage equity required to justify calling.
Whenever I refer to the total pot, this means the total effective pot (this could be less than
the total pot if an opponent has more chips than you)
Total Pot Amount to Call Ratio Pot Odds Pot Odds
(TP:ATC)
1000 50 20 to 1 21 to 1 4.76%
1000 500 2 to 1 3 to 1 33%
600 200 3 to 1 4 to 1 25%
600 400 1.5 to 1 (3:2) 2.5 to 1 (5:2) 40%
200 50 4 to 1 5 to 1 20%
200 200 1 to 1 2 to 1 50%

Now look at the pattern between the third and fourth columns.
This is your ticket to understanding how to calculate pot odds quickly at the table.
You divide the total pot by the amount to call and add 1 to the bottom of the
fraction. That is all that is required. Personally I like to express pot odds as my
percentage equity required to justify calling. Below you will see 6 common ratios
between the amount to call and the total pot. These can be your framework for
working out pot odds. Once they are engrained in your mind, calculating pot odds
is fairly easy.
If Amount to Call = 25% of Total Pot you need 20% Equity to Call
If Amount to Call = 33% of Total Pot you need 25% Equity to Call
If Amount to Call = 50% of Total Pot you need 33% Equity to Call
If Amount to Call = 66% of Total Pot you need 40% Equity to Call
If Amount to Call = 75% of Total Pot you need 43% Equity to Call
If Amount to Call = 100% of Total Pot you need 50% Equity to Call
These are particularly useful for calling all-ins or calling bets on the river when
there is no future betting. Whenever there is no future betting, your decision is not
clouded by implied odds and is a much clearer, mathematical choice. Earlier in the
betting, you should be aware of your pot odds, but they are not the driving factor
behind your decisions.
Chapter 5: Postflop Questions
I include my personal list of useful postflop questions and give them a chapter to

25
themselves. They do not belong hidden in an appendix. These are the prompts
which can help you to think about the right things. If your mind is wandering, they
will return you to the correct path.
What is my tournament situation?
To what extent am I happy to gamble? Would I accept marginally
positive EV?
What is my opponent(s)’ situation?
To what extent is he happy to gamble? Would he accept marginally
positive EV?
How many opponents are active?
Do I need to isolate to 1 opponent?
What is my relative position?
Which of the 6 postflop scenarios am I in?
What betting lines are appropriate?
What is the effective stack size and what percentage of that is in the middle?
(SPR)
What information do I have on my opponent (s)?
HUD Stats – VPIP/PFR/CBET/Fold to CBET/AGG FACTOR
What information do I have from the preflop and postflop betting?
Who is the preflop aggressor?
How strong is my hand now?
Should I be trying to play a big pot or a small pot?
How likely am I to be ahead?
How likely is my opponent(s) to have connected with this flop?
What information do I have about his hand?
What percentage of the time am I ahead right now?
How likely am I to be ahead at showdown?
How committed am I to the hand? 100%?
What is the texture of the board and does it suit me?
How difficult is this going to be to play on the turn/river? Do I welcome
another card?
How many outs do I have against different hand categories?
How many outs might my opponent have?
What are my raw pot odds?
What are the implied odds?
What is likely to happen if I hit/miss the next card(s)?
How likely is my opponent to fold if I bet here?
What bet size is appropriate? Bet more to protect or extract value, bet less to
invite action.
How much do I need to bet to take the pot odds away from him

26
 calling on a draw?
Am I aggressor/in position/ahead/need to protect? Bet
Am I aggressor/in position/behind? What value do I have in continuing to
bet?
Am I defending/out of position/ahead? Lead, check-call, check-raise or
check-fold?
Am I defending/out of position/behind? Likely fold.
Some of these questions you will recognize from your natural thought processes. If
English is not your first language, translate them because eventually you want these
questions to flow through your brain rapidly and being in second-language mode
can slow you down, even if your command of English is very strong. Print them out
and learn them.
These are essential ingredients for self-improvement. The more times you ask these
questions, the better you will become at answering them (sometimes the answers
are obvious, other times they are not). The more accurate your answers become, the
more likely you are to find a suitable postflop play. My analysis throughout this
book stems from this list of questions.
Summary:
Learn the 12 postflop dimensions
Learn to calculate the SPR on every flop
Always put your opponent(s) on a range
Commit to memory the 6 postflop decision scenarios
Learn the potential “No C-bet” categories
Learn to calculate pot odds quickly
Arm yourself with an arsenal of questions to use whilst playing

Part 2 – Big Hands

You will be dealt a specific pocket pair only once every 221 hands, yet premium
hands account for the vast majority of profit in most formats of the game, so they are
worthy of a good deal of study.
Chapter 6: AA: (American Airlines; Pocket Rockets; Bullets; Rocky
Mountains; Teepees)
There are different ways of playing AA. The method that you choose will depend
on the tournament situation, your position and most importantly, the SPR.
I am going to examine a series of examples of how to play AA divided up into 3
sections, which I will break down by effective stack size.
Section One: AA deep-stacked situations with more than 30BB

27
In this first example I am sat under the gun (UTG) with 75 big blinds on hand one of
a low stakes 6-max SNG and I am aware of some very loose players at the table. If
I raise small and the flop comes down Qxx, I could find it impossible to distinguish
between an opponent with top pair and one with a set since many low stakes
players will not fold top pair. This creates a serious postflop problem. Dilemmas
such as these are common in low stakes games, both cash and tournament. If your
opponents are stronger, then it is possible to play premium hands with a more
subtle raise and find out the information you need with clever postflop betting. In
this case, I opt to avoid any dilemma by attempting to put in 10% of my stack into
the middle preflop. This is my magic number for playing AA and KK. As long as I
can get 10% of my stack in preflop, I will have a flop SPR (stack to pot ratio) of
less than 5 and I can then commit the rest of my chips postflop almost always. This
table might help you to understand and choose your raise size appropriately:

The goal is an SPR of less than 5 so you can commit to your hand on most flops.
Cash game players with stacks in excess of 75BB are often going to find this
impossible to follow and should aim to avoid committing to the hand unless their
hand improves.
SPR (Stack to Pot Relative Risk AA (overpair) -
Ratio) Committed?
0-3 Very low Yes
4-6 Low 90%
7-10 Medium 50%
11-14 High No

28
 15+ Very high No

*This is a table I include for each and every type of flop. It is a guideline only.
Commitment depends on many other factors too and it changes as the postflop betting
develops. It is not a perfect or absolute state! I like commitment as a concept as it enforces
a strong mental approach and pre-emptive thought processes.
So I raise 7 times the big blind to 140 chips, which is almost 10% of my starting
stack of 1500. You might think that this would drive away all my opponents, but if
there are loose players at your table, they are likely to still call an oversized raise
with a wide range of cards. In this example, button, small blind and big blind all
call. The flop comes down 7d Jd 2c: (PS1, PS1 and PS3 and SPR 2.5)

At this point I am aware of a great danger being against 3 opponents. It is possible

that one of them has a flush draw or a gut shot or even both. The only hand I am in
trouble against, though, is a set, and I have bet enough preflop (the magic 10% or
close to it) not to worry too much about it. Note that the “10 times rule” has nothing
to do with how many big blinds you are holding. I must proceed with aggression. In
this example the small blind checks and the big blind then bets the pot size. This
looks like a committed bet and probably a jack. Players with stronger hands tend to
make smaller bets or even check, so I believe I am ahead and I need to isolate.
Isolation is a key concept in multi-way pots, so I shove all-in and hope to drive
away anyone with a flush draw. Note that if the board had been super-dry with no
draws, it would be fine to just flat-call and allow a second opponent one more
card. You have to balance the risk of an opponent improving their hand on the turn
with extracting maximum value from the hand.
In this case, the button folded and both the small blind and big blind called:

29
In the early stages of low stakes tournaments, it is possible to make a large number
of chips with premium hands if you play them with extreme aggression. Contrary to
popular belief there is simply no need for disguise or subtlety. Fast and furious is
the right way to play AA early in an SNG unless you are super deep-stacked. Cash
games and the first levels of MTTs require more restraint.
Let us now examine a similar situation with a slightly wetter board. This time I am
sat on the button facing a 4x raise from a player sat 3 seats to my right. I cannot get
10% of my stack in preflop without re-raising, so I will not entertain any other
option. You simply don’t want to invite another player in to the pot who may be
playing a small pocket pair or suited connector. Those are the 2 types of hands
which can do big damage to AA, so you should look to price them out whenever
possible. A standard re-raise is normally around 2 to 3 times the initial raise.
Minimum re-raises are commonly seen with strong hands such as AA but should be
avoided. You need to focus on getting 10% in the middle and charging the initial
raiser a decent price for seeing the flop. The initial raiser could be sat with a
pocket pair and you ought not to be showing him a cheap flop. In this example, I go
for 180, which comfortably achieves those goals. The rest of the table folds and the
initial raiser calls and we see a flop of Kd 4s Td: (PS1 and SPR 4)

30
When connected high cards hit the flop, there is always a possibility that your
opponent has a drawing hand. This board is particularly dangerous as there is also
a flush draw (though I do hold the ace of diamonds). When assessing my opponent’s
likely holdings here, I see his PFR stat is 15%. In this spot it may be as narrow as
8% as he raises from UTG and calls my 3Bet. Perhaps his range is ATs+, AJo+ and
pocket pairs, plus KQ maybe. His postflop check tells me nothing as most players
would check to the re-raiser with any holding, so when I choose my bet size on the
flop I have to strike a balance between defending my hand and getting maximum
value.
There are a few hands such as ATs or JJ against which I would want to extract
value with slightly smaller bets, but the danger is strong that he holds AJ or AQ and
I cannot afford to give the turn card too cheaply as it could cost me everything. If he
holds a king, he will likely call any bet size, so I prefer a larger bet. Pocket pairs
less than a 10 he should fold regardless of bet size and we’re not worrying about
sets. A bet of around 75% of the pot is okay here, but I tend to err on the side of
caution when playing AA and I opt for almost a pot-sized bet.
My opponent calls and the ace of clubs hits the turn, which he then checks to me.
All that remains is to work out how to get the remainder of my chips in the middle.
Again in considering his range, my opponent may have 0 outs (AK), 1 out
(TT/KK/44), 4 outs (AQ/KQ) or possibly a few more. He may also be unsure
whether he is ahead or not. Often the ace will scare an opponent off in these spots,
but do not let this deter you from pricing him off his potential draw. Half the pot is
plenty and that is what I choose here. I am surprised when he calls, but pleased
when the 7 clubs hits the river and completes neither a flush nor a straight. He

31
checks, I push in the remainder of my chips and he calls, showing AQ and paying
the full price for calling my early game 3bet out of position and, more importantly,
calling without the correct odds on the flop.

Generally with AA early in tournaments, you are going to win a small pot with this
strategy as your preflop raise/re-raise or postflop continuation bet will secure a lot
of folds. You are also, more importantly, going to avoid losing a lot of large pots,
which can happen if you invite players into the action cheaply. The vast majority of
AA hands early in a tournament should be played with this aggressive preflop and
postflop style. Show your teeth with AA!
There are times, however, when it makes sense to slow down. Sometimes you want
your opponent to bluff at the pot, other times a wet board or a paired board warrant
a more cautious approach. Let us now examine 3 more examples playing AA, when
it makes sense to slow down.
Here, the button limped preflop, I raised 4x to 120 and both the big blind and button
called. The flop came rainbow Ah 9c 6d, bringing about very few dangers: (PS3,
PS3 and SPR4)

32
Whilst the specific hand of 78 poses a threat, the likelihood is that neither of these
opponents are holding any sort of draw. It is possible one of them has the one
remaining ace, though it is quite likely that at this moment, neither of them hold
anything and their chances of beating my hand are either 0% or very close to it.
In spots like this, checking is the most profitable play as it feigns weakness and
encourages your opponents to bluff. In addition, even when they do check behind,
which will happen frequently, there is a chance that they might pick up a pair or a
poor draw on the turn and at that point you can extract some value from your hand.
This sort of deceptive play usually carries too much risk, but not in this case due to
the dry board and my opponents’ ranges. Note that against good opponents, you
should consider making a small C-bet for the simple reason that they expect it. They
are more likely to sense a trap if you make an unexpected check behind your
preflop raise on an ace high dry board - which is a perfect situation to C-bet.
In this example, I check and the big blind bets out hard. I suspect he is either
bluffing or has the one remaining ace. The button folds and I smooth call. The turn
is 6s completing my full house and alleviating the small risk that my opponent could
make a straight. Now I want him to make a straight. I can only lose to 4 of a kind
and hands that strong are only worth worrying about if there are 3 of the same card
on the board.
Betting out at the turn seems very unnatural here as my opponent is now the
aggressor and I am only going to make chips now if he is bluffing or genuinely has
hit a hand. I check the turn and my opponent bets 450, which is approximately half
of his remaining chips. He is completely committed and I think it unlikely now that
he is on an outright bluff. It is unusual when playing out of position to flat-call his

33
bet here. I would have to be certain he is on an outright bluff and that is a very
unusual scenario. If I check-raise all-in he will call even with a hand as weak as a
gut-shot as he has become so pot-committed. As a result, it does not make sense to
smooth call, let him miss his draw and then fail to extract his remaining chips on the
river. So I check-raise all-in and he calls, drawing dead with A5, which he should
have been folding preflop.

I am going to look at playing a set in more detail in a later chapter, but for the
purposes of playing AA, if you flop a set and the board is fairly dry, it sometimes
makes sense to slow down your betting, possibly giving a free turn card. You
should, however, almost never give 2 free cards. If you give a free or cheap turn
card, make sure you get busy betting on the turn.
There are other times when you need to slow down your betting with AA. In this
next example, the hijack limps preflop and I raise 7x the big blind from the button to
140 (more or less obeying the magic 10x rule). The limper calls and the flop is Jc
5d 8c (PS1 and SPR4)

34
My opponent leads out with an undersized donk-bet or probe bet. Normally this is
the type of bet a weak player makes when he wants to see another cheap card. On a
wet board like this one it is likely to be some kind of draw or weak pair. There are
certain advantages of making donk-bets, but for reasons that I will discuss in a later
chapter, the donk-bet is often the wrong play.
When faced by a donk-bet of between 10 and 30% of the pot it is often a good idea
to raise and it is certainly correct here when holding aces. I need to protect my hand
against possible draws. The 200 I bet into a 350 pot is slightly small on a wet
board like this one, where anything between 66% and 100% of the pot is advisable.
My opponent called.
Most of the time the turn card will be friendly and in those instances you can
proceed with a large bet or raise on the turn. In this example the turn card is the
very scary Q of clubs, completing a possible flush, straight and 2 pair. There are
too many dangers here for me to be blindly committed to this hand, but I am the
aggressor, I am in position, my opponent has shown weakness on all streets and I
need to defend my hand against the possibility of my opponent hitting the river card.
There is a balance that needs to be struck here.
The wet board is often just as scary to your opponent. If he is drawing to a straight
he won’t be enjoying the clubs. Betting first at the turn is often correct when a
possible flush hits. I want to bet an amount from which I can still escape should my
opponent check-raise, yet an amount that still takes his odds away from calling to
improve his hand. I opted for 260 chips, which is a bit small, into a pot of 710.
Nevertheless, it would take a brave player to check-raise the turn with a bluff or
semi-bluff here. My opponent called and the river was the ten of hearts.

35
My opponent checked. Running back over the hand, note that he limp-called
preflop, donk-bet-called the flop, check-called the turn and checked the river. This
pattern (CC/BC/XC) is indicative of a drawing hand. Many players would consider
value betting the river here against a loose opponent, but the dangers outweigh the
benefits. He could easily have made a straight or two pair even if he has missed the
flush and he will check-fold most weaker hands here, so there really isn’t enough
value in making a bet. There is always a chance he may check-raise too.
Whenever you consider value-betting, estimate how well your hand will perform
(% equity) against your opponent’s calling range (not his hand range). It needs to
be a minimum of 50%.
Most of the betting in No Limit Hold’em should normally have taken place before
the river. You should always consider value betting, but often you should only be
betting if your hand has actually improved on the river, or you are bluffing. In this
spot, I do not believe my opponent will call another bet with one weak pair, so I
check behind. He has missed a fairly expensive draw, which he ought to have laid
down at every opportunity.
If you find yourself in a deep-stacked tournament situation or a cash game, you will
often find the 10% rule impossible to follow. In those situations, just raise
normally, proceed with caution postflop and be much more willing to fold your
hand to serious aggression from your opponents postflop.
Try not to be afraid of exposing yourself to difficult postflop situations. When a
scare card hits, think it through and find a solution. Too often, I see players either
checking through fear or sometimes shoving all-in for the same reason. More often
than not it makes sense to battle it out postflop, especially holding AA in position.

36
In my final example, I have 45BB and the action folds around to me on the small
blind. This is another time when you will need to abandon the 10% rule. If you are
playing against one active opponent, an oversized raise is just not going to get
enough action, so you will have to lower your raise size to something more natural
such as 3x. There is often a balance to be struck. The more opponents that are
active behind you, the more important it is to obey the 10% rule as the risk of being
up against a danger hand such as a small pocket pair increases. So in this spot, I
just raise 3x to 90, my opponent calls and we see a flop of 2d 3s Tc (PS3 and
SPR6). It is dry, though there are a few potential straight draws.

I proceed with a standard two thirds C-bet and my opponent calls. The turn brings
the 4h. Now at this point there are some obvious straight draw dangers. If an ace, a
six or even a five hit the river, I could lose a few chips, but my opponent is unlikely
to have a five and even if he does, good things can happen too. So as I go through
my questions I ask myself how important is it to protect my hand with another bet?
How much of a disaster would it be if he checked behind me? How likely is he to
check behind me? And how committed am I to the hand?
I notice that my opponent has a low fold to steal of 53%, which means he is
probably playing his top 50% of hands or maybe even a few more as he is in
position. He is unlikely to have connected well with this flop and he has displayed
an aggressive nature in this tournament.
This is a spot where I think I can induce a bluff or a semi-bluff from my opponent
by showing some weakness. I check, he duly bets 360 into a pot of 420 and I check-
raise all-in. Remember, when out of position, you normally want to complete the
betting by the turn and the betting pattern in this hand is quite an effective way of

37
achieving that (R/B/XR). My opponent called and showed A2 of hearts, with 2 outs
to win and 4 outs to split.

The river brought the jack of clubs and I won a big pot.
Now imagine that I had double-barrelled by betting the turn. My opponent is quite
likely to smooth call behind and I lose this opportunity to shut down the betting and
get all the chips in. The check-raise on the turn here is a useful tactic, but should be
reserved for spots such as this, when a free river card is not likely to be a disaster
and your opponent is aggressive.
Section Two: AA with an effective stack of 16-30BB
Normally in tournaments, especially SNGs, it is correct to start in 1st gear and
gradually get more active and more aggressive as the tournament progresses,
culminating in extreme aggression during heads-up play. When you are playing AA
the reverse is true. We just saw how aggressively I like to play AA in the early
stages. As the game progresses and the effective stack size reduces in terms of big
blinds, the more likely I am to play AA slowly and with some deception.
Following this line of thought, in the middle stages of a tournament it is likely that
you are going to play AA with an average level of aggression. As we saw in the
chart in the previous section, the 10% rule can be applied all the way down to
push/fold blind levels of 10-12BB.
In this example I am sat with 27BB and raise 3x from the hijack and both the button

38
and the small blind call. The flop comes down 9s 3h 7d: (PS3, PS1 and SPR2)
Whenever you have more than one opponent, you should always be thinking
about isolation. The flop might be dry, but my opponents here are super loose and
could easily have connected with this board. Two factors dictate that a good-sized
C-bet is necessary here: firstly, you need to isolate and secondly, it is a good idea
to bet hard against calling stations when you hold something strong. So after the
small blind checks, I C-bet 350 and I am absolutely committed. Importantly though,
I avoid betting so much that my opponents know I am committed. They might
believe they can still make me fold with a bluff. The button calls, the small blind
folds and I have successfully isolated to one opponent. The turn brings the 4d, I
shove the rest in of course (they were going in regardless of the turn card) and my
opponent calls with 86 of hearts, drawing to 8 outs:

39
The river is the 9d and I win a nice pot. In truth, most players play this hand
correctly, but it is important that you prioritize isolation and bet hard against calling
stations.
In the next example, I am sat in the big blind with only 19BB and the action folds
round to the small blind who min-raises. If I had been sat with more than 20BB, I
should really be re-raising in order to comply with the 10x rule, but in this spot, I
can comply with the 10x rule simply be calling. This has the advantage of
disguising the strength of my hand. Re-raising can and should scare away
opponents. So this is the first example of me playing AA postflop as the defender
rather than the aggressor. Whenever you are playing a hand you should know
whether you are attacking or defending and if you keep asking yourself those
questions, you will remain aware.

40
The flop comes down Jd 8s 9c (PS4 and SPR4) and my opponent makes a weak C-
bet. Now when I see this flop I could be forgiven for wishing I had re-raised
preflop. Certainly a dryer flop would have been preferable, but try to remain
focused on the action in front of you and quash any emotional responses. I now need
to go through my questions to help me decide how to play this. Bubble factor plays
little role here as only 3 get paid and I am likely to have to gamble at some point
before that. How likely am I to be ahead right now? Very likely. How likely am I to
be ahead at showdown? Quite likely. Do I want to see another card? Perhaps I want
to see a blank and then I can get the chips in on the turn. If I see a scare card, I
could stop betting and hope to get through to the river cheaply. After all, I am in
position, so I can exercise some pot control.
So I need to raise an amount that would allow me to shove naturally on the turn. If I
choose 300 and he only calls, I will believe I am ahead as he has shown weakness
and I will achieve all my goals. So I raise to 300 and he calls, the turn card is 4s,
he checks, I shove all-in for 1413 chips and he calls with Q9. If he had raised again
on the flop, I would have had to make a tough decision, but based on all the straight
draws and the possibility of him just holding top pair, how committed should I be?
100%

41
He is drawing to 9 outs and will win less than 1 in 5 times, so the call on the turn is
loose.
If you are ever in doubt when you are playing AA postflop with fairly low SPRs (5
or lower) even on wet boards you should normally be committed to it and that
means you need to focus on how you can best get your chips in the middle. If you
are leading the betting, then this is usually no problem as normal bet sizes will
generally lead to an all-in on one of the postflop streets. If you are defending the
hand in position as I am in the previous example, you can generally control the pot
to some degree. It only really gets difficult if you are out of position, defending the
hand and scare cards hit the board. Then you can find yourself playing a guessing
game and you just have to make the decisions as mathematical as possible. Think
about how likely you are to be ahead, what your pot odds are and whether or not
you should be committed. In most 16-30BB scenarios with AA, the answer is
usually yes.
Section Three: AA short-stacked
There is a little bit of postflop strategy required in certain short-stacked situations,
but not too much. Holding AA you should always be working out exactly how you
can make your opponent(s) put chips into the pot. Generally, I will obey the 10x
rule, so if I need to min-raise in order to get 10% of my stack in the middle, I will
still do so. That is not to say that you can never limp. If you face an aggressive
player heads-up, limping with AA might be the best possible play as your opponent
will usually start throwing chips at you. If you start with a raise he might fold and
you lose a chance to win a big pot.
In this hand I am sat in a 3-man bubble, playing as the middle stack, which is the

42
hardest stack to play. The big stack has been aggressive and min-raises from the
button with a range of close to any two cards (ATC). I decide to flat-call rather than
re-raise as it seems like a good opportunity to exploit my opponent’s likely postflop
aggression (his AGG Factor is 9.3). If I 3Bet preflop he might just fold.

I call (PS6 and SPR2.5) and the big blind rightly folds hoping that I get involved in
a big pot and lose. The flop is Jd 8h 5d and because I am defending the hand and a
C-bet is very likely, I check and the button bets 400 into a pot of 1000. It looks
slightly undersized on a board with a few draws.
Often I would raise here and shut down the pot, but I know my opponent is
aggressive and looking to bully me. If he has got a piece of this, he will probably
miss the turn card and I can get my chips in then with better odds. If he has not got a
piece of it, he might pick up something on the turn or river and at that point I can
exploit him. So, I decide to take a risk and just call.
The turn is the Qc which is a good card for him to double-barrel. I am fairly sure he
will do, so I check again, he bets 800, I check-raise all-in and he folds.

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Although my play is rather defensive, I still enjoy this betting pattern (C/XC/XR). I
display weakness only calling preflop, weakness twice by only check/calling the
flop, a fourth signal of weakness on the turn, followed by a dramatic switch from
defence to attack. Occasionally it is possible to follow this betting pattern when
you are holding a semi-bluffing hand against an opponent who is capable of folding.
Sometimes when the blinds get bigger and you hold AA it is necessary to take a few
more risks. I feel less afraid of flirting with an opponent’s drawing hands because I
stand to lose less. This kind of risky defensive play in a sensitive bubble situation
is only really possible with AA. Even with KK I would be more inclined to make a
strong play earlier in the hand – either 3bet preflop or check-raise the flop.
When you are right down to less than 10BB and you are sat at a reasonable table,
consider open shoving the hand preflop if that is what you would do with a wide
range of other hands. Good players will suspect you hold a monster hand if your
play is out of the ordinary. Against most opponents, limping or min-raising works
best as they will not be thinking about you holding a big hand and will often walk
into the trap either preflop or postflop.
Summary:
Exercise pot control in cash games or very deep-stacked tournament
play
Whenever possible use the 10% rule to obtain an SPR of 5 or less
AA deep-stacked (30BB-75BB) = play aggressively
AA normal stacked (16BB-30BB) = play normally
AA short stacked (15BB or less) = play defensively
Look at common examples of when to slow down

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KK: (Cowboys; King Kong)
Much of what is true for playing AA is also true of KK. It can be a frustrating hand
as it wins considerably less often than AA, yet people have high expectations of it.
You ought to know that it only wins 67% of the time against A2 suited and 71% of
the time against A2 offsuit, so try not to get too surprised when it does lose and do
not be afraid of seeing a flop.
I am going to divide this into 3 sections again based on stack size:
Section One: KK deep-stacked situations with effective stack more than 30BB
Preflop you should focus on the 10% rule, raising or re-raising appropriately in
order to get 10% of your stack in the middle. Once again, cash game players may
find this impractical and will have to exercise more caution and aim to play a
smaller pot. Ideally you want to avoid an opponent set-mining cheaply and give
yourself the freedom to commit to most boards with no ace. For example in this
tournament I am sat in the cutoff on level one and I raise 7x the big blind to 140 into
2 loose players on the blinds. The small blind calls:

The flop comes down 4c Qh 6s (PS1 and SPR4) and my opponent checks. On a dry
board like this one, 50% of the pot is plenty for a C-bet, but I choose nearly 75% as
I suspect my opponent is a calling station and I want to build the pot so I can get my
chips in on the turn. The only real difference when playing KK here as opposed to
AA is that there are more ways you can lose the hand if you see more cards. For
that reason, slightly larger bet sizes are a good idea. He calls, the turn card is 5c, he
checks and I make a natural push for the remainder of the chips. I am definitely
committed and want to protect my hand against straight draws or an ace falling.

45
Unfortunately he showed 78 offsuit and won a big pot.

Sometimes calling stations will win big pots and there really is nothing you can do
about that. This should not stop you from playing the hand with the appropriate
level of aggression. Remember not to bluff into calling stations, keep your bet sizes
larger than average when you are strong and in the long run you will come out on
top.
Now I want to focus on how to negotiate ace high boards as these cause the most
problems. Firstly I will look at how to deal with it when we are the preflop raiser:
in this example my opponent has limped preflop, I have raised 7x and he has called
(PS1 and SPR4).

46
It is a bad flop of course as Ax belongs to his possible range of cards. I need to find
out whether he has the ace, which is made slightly more difficult with the presence
of the flush draw. A normal C-bet will usually work here though and in this case, I
simply bet half the pot and he folds. If he calls, he will most likely have an ace and
occasionally the flush draw and I need not put any more chips into the pot. The C-
bet is normally going to be the only postflop bet that we make in this spot – one
single, strong attempt to take the pot down. That is true for when you are in position
or out of position.
It is nearly always going to be correct to C-bet on an A high board when you are the
raiser and you have missed the flop. You need to gather information about your
opponent’s hand. Sometimes passive players have a habit of checking when they
see the ace and this opens the possibility for your opponent to bluff you off the hand
later. Remember that a C-bet at an Ace high board will generally work 60% of the
time and if you bet half the pot it only needs to work 33% of the time to show a
profit, so C-betting as a bluff is +EV.
Even if your opponent donk-bets the flop, you should generally be making a raise to
represent that ace. A call is often a bad idea. It is better to lose a few more chips at
the flop stage than to play a guessing game for the rest of the hand. It can become
more complicated in multi-way pots though and you need to assess your opponents’
ranges and how likely it is that one of them holds an ace. On occasions it could be
impossible to make even one strong play for the pot if more than one opponent bets
in front of you, or you are fairly certain one of them must hold an ace. If folding is
your first and only postflop action, so be it. At least you only lost a few chips.
In situations where you have been called at the flop stage and your opponent shows
weakness on the turn, I advise against bluffing the turn or the river as often players
will be holding Ace-rag and will check-call almost any bet. They are afraid of
being outkicked, but unable to fold. Let me give you an example:

47
Here I have made my customary huge preflop raise and been called by a loose
player. The flop is Ad 6h 4s (PS1 and SPR6), my opponent checks and I bet 160
into a 230 pot. A larger than average C-bet for a dry flop because I am playing a
calling station and I want clear information. He calls and I have to assume at this
point that he is holding an ace. The rest of the hand is checked down and he wins
the pot with A8. If I attempt a further bet at any stage, he will call and I simply lose
more chips. If your opponent is showing weakness as mine does in this hand, this is
not enough of a reason for you to bet again.
In rare spots when you are defending the hand and the flop is ace high, you will
need to consider whether a check-raise is appropriate, or in rare cases perhaps a
donk-bet. The goal is to discover whether your opponent holds an ace and you
should be prepared to invest a reasonable number of chips to achieve this. Even
with low SPRs you must try and escape from Ace high boards even if you lose half
your stack. You simply have to avoid entering all-in situations with only 2 outs.
SPR (Stack to Pot Relative Risk KK - A high flop –
Ratio) Committed?
0-3 Very low 75%
4-6 Low 25%
7-10 Medium No
11-14 High No
15+ Very high No

In some ways Ace high boards are black and white. Either your opponent has an
ace or he does not have an ace. You need to use the C-bet to find out the answer.

48
Section Two: KK with an effective stack of 16-30BB
Playing KK with a medium chip stack is not hugely different. The same principles
hold true, but the specific tournament dynamics and stack sizes start to play a larger
role. The main thing I start to do differently is when I am responding to a raise, I
might opt to flat-call instead of always choosing to re-raise. That will be the focus
of this section. Note that you should normally avoid flat-calling raises with KK in
multi-way pots. If there is a risk of a multi-way pot, re-raising is usually more
appropriate. Isolation should always be a big part of your thinking.
I want to look at a hand from a 6-max hyper-turbo with antes. I am sat on the big
blind early on with 25BB, the cutoff limps, the button raises 5x to 100 and I have
the choice of either re-raising (which would put more than 30% of my stack in the
middle and in my mind that makes it a virtual all-in) or flat-calling.
If I flat-call I don’t have many chips with which to negotiate an ace high flop and
might be forced into considering a donk-bet as opposed to a check-raise.
Nevertheless revealing the strength of my hand at this stage might make the raiser
fold a good percentage of his hands, so I like seeing a flop and inviting a C-bet. On
this occasion the flop is ideal: 5h 6s Qs (PS6 and SPR2) and I can check-call or
check-raise as I wish.

I decided to check-raise as is often my preference in these spots and my opponent

called with KQ. In this case my choice on the flop makes no difference to the
outcome of the hand, but if we go back to our postflop questions and ask about our
commitment level to the hand, what our opponent’s range is, and what the risk level
is in just calling, we should discover that even though we are only holding one pair,
our sole objective here is to get our opponent to put chips into the pot. And so you

49
should choose the option which you think looks the weakest to your opponent.
Sometimes when there are draws on the board like this one and you cannot call
cheaply, the all-in will appear weaker than the call. If I see an opponent call for
half his stack at the flop stage, I would usually put him on something stronger than
just a draw, whereas when he pushes all-in, the draw remains a big part of his
range.
Usually when your opponent’s C-bet puts him with half his stack in the middle you
should only be check-calling with hands that are almost certainly 80%+ to win. If
you think there is a chance he still has a decent number of outs then you should be
welcoming a fold. In this example, though, I am on average over 80% to win so
check-calling would be the correct play if your opponent will see it as weakness.
In the following hand, the effective stack is 26BB and we are playing 4-handed in
the mid-stages of a 6-max SNG. The cutoff raises 3x to 300 and it folds around to
me. I could easily choose to re-raise, but my opponent has already put over 10% of
his stack in the middle, so although my stack is over 3000, I am happy to call.
Always remember to focus your thoughts on the effective stack, which is not always
yours.
I call and the flop comes down 8h Jc 5d (PS6 and SPR3.5) and I expect my
opponent to C-bet at the fairly dry board, so I check:

Unfortunately, my opponent surprises me by checking behind me and I am relieved

when the innocuous 2h comes on the turn. At this point I know I have to bet. I have
underplayed my hand preflop and on the flop, so I need to get busy now. The board
is dry though, so I consider half the pot appropriate and my opponent calls. The
river is the 8c and I am fairly sure I am still ahead. I think my opponent may be ace

50
high or holding a smaller pocket pair and so I make another small bet of 400 hoping
to pick up a few extra chips if he calls. My opponent raises to 1200 which
surprises me and leaves him with just 656 chips:

At this point, I believe he either has a full house, an 8 or he is bluffing. I have to

call 800 to win 3050, so as long as I can win 21% of the time, I have the right odds
to call. Learning to calculate or at least approximate your pot odds whilst playing is
important. I do not have to think too long about calling this bet as I am sure I can
win 21% of the time. Most of the range which I have beaten here is outright bluffs,
so there is little sense in raising. If he had a jack or a hand like 99 he would most
likely have C-bet, raised the turn and flat-called the river. His postflop betting does
not make much sense, which should often lead you to suspect a bluff. I called and he
showed A9h.
The final hand I want to look at for mid-blind levels involves a heads-up situation
with another regular player. I am sat with 24BB as the effective stack and so we are
not in a push/fold situation which typically starts at around 16-20BB when playing
heads-up. My opponent raises in position to 3BB and I want to disguise my hand,
so I flat-call: (PS6 and SPR4)

51
My first postflop action will nearly always mirror my preflop action, so if I am
defending the hand preflop, I start with a check and if I am the preflop raiser, I start
with an aggressive bet or raise. This situation is no different, especially as I am
anticipating a C-bet. Although there are straight draws on the board, at this point in
the tournament, holding a set, you should be willing to flirt with a small amount of
danger for at least one street, so I check-call rather than check-raise and I hope my
opponent hits something on the turn. Again, I opt to disguise the strength of my hand
and play this nice and slowly.
A lovely looking Ad comes down on the turn and I consider how likely my
opponent is to make a turn continuation bet. If I were to check and he checks behind
me, I could be exposing myself to the possibility of a Q or a T hitting the river and
making my opponent a straight. If I bet and he has nothing, he might fold and I
would make no extra chips. Neither option is without drawbacks. I elected to check
as I was fairly sure he would bet. He bet 450 at the turn, 25% of the pot, which is
often a sign of either weakness or extreme strength, I check-raised all-in, hoping he
just had an ace, he showed A3 and my hand held up:

52
Athough I was very fortunate in the hand, I gave myself every opportunity of
winning a big pot by not overplaying the hand on the first two streets. There will be
more examples of this when I look at playing monster flops in volume 2.
Before I move on I want to make clear that in general when playing KK at medium
blind levels, you will be the preflop raiser and you should continue in a very
aggressive style, but when you enter the postflop betting as the defender, it can be
useful to disguise the strength of your hand for a while.
Section Three: KK short-stacked
When I play AA I will occasionally limp even at 12 to 15BB, but with KK you
really need to obey the 10x rule. It is acceptable to limp at 10BB or less, but you
need to minimum raise if your stack is 10-20BB. The last thing you want to do is
gift a free flop to someone holding Ace rag.
If you risk busting out of a tournament in a sensitive bubble situation or whenever
ICM is a factor, try not to play KK too slowly. In situations where more than one
opponent has limped into the pot, you should be attempting to isolate to one
opponent even if that means making quite a large raise or squeezing all-in. Once
you are down to one opponent though, then you can feign some postflop weakness
where appropriate. Heads-up is a classic time to do that as you can exploit the
over-aggression of your opponent. In this next hand if I show any level of
aggression before the turn card, I am certain I will lose the opportunity to win a big
pot:

53
My opponent min-raises preflop and I just call. The flop is 3c 9h 3s (PS6 and
SPR3). I check and my opponent C-bets half the pot. It is a classic board to check-
raise, but with a hand as strong as KK, I am not looking to shut down the betting as I
usually would. I want to gamble and I want my opponent to see another card, so I
flat-call and see 7h. There is little danger in checking again and another bet might
put my opponent into a committed state.

That is exactly what happens. My opponent bets 600 on a complete bluff, I check-
raise all-in and my opponent makes a slightly loose call with Q6 and 0 outs. You
may think it is completely crazy to call, but to call, he needs to be able to win only
24% of the time and so if I am bluffing or semi-bluffing just occasionally, combined

54
with the likelihood of his queen being an out (and possibly the 6), he might think he
has a chance to win close to 1 in 4 times. In my mind this is a clear fold for my
opponent.
Playing KK short-stacked is very similar to playing AA - just focus on striking the
right balance between concealing the strength of your hand and protecting it from
danger.
Summary:
Similar philosophy to playing AA
Slightly larger postflop bet sizes
Make one strong postflop play on A-high board
Medium/short-stacked slow down, but obey 10% rule

QQ (Ladies; Bitches; Siegfried and Roy)

The main differences in playing QQ as opposed to kings or aces are that your
commitment level is slightly lower and you will be exposed to more unfavourable
flops. You should still open with an aggressive raise or re-raise, but be wary of
running into a bigger hand in deep-stacked situations. Preflop it is sometimes
possible to fold QQ in tournaments if you believe one or more of your opponents’
ranges are as narrow as 3%. Remember, when an opponent 4-bets their range
could be very narrow indeed.
There are going to be 2 main types of flop to negotiate when playing QQ: flops with
no overcards and flops with one or more overcard. Flops with no overcards are not
going to differ hugely from examples we have already looked at.
I am going to begin by looking at just one example of a flop with no overcard to
demonstrate what you should be doing when an overcard hits the turn. This is also
relevant when playing KK and an ace hits the turn. It is the beginning of a 6-max
SNG and I raise 5xBB to 100 with QQ from the hijack. The small blind calls and
we see a flop of 9s 4s Jh: (PS1 and SPR 5.5)

55
My opponent checks, I C-bet half the pot, which may look small and my opponent
calls. Sometimes when you hold a pocket pair which interferes with some of the
straight draws and at the same time gives you runner runner straight outs, this “dries
up” the board somewhat without your opponent knowing it. For example if my
opponent holds KT here, he will assume he can win 30% of the time even against
AJ, yet he will only win 20% of the time against QQ. So although in general it is
good to C-bet more on a wet board, I like my 50% bet here. C-bet sizing should
normally be influenced only by the texture of the flop, but small, subtle, unreadable
alterations are good against unknown opponents.
The turn card is Kh and my opponent checks:

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In spots like this it is easy to get scared, check behind and deal with the river card
in position. This is a very common mistake that players make. The likelihood is
still that I am ahead. Ask your postflop questions. I need to protect my hand against
the increasing number of draws on the board and at the same time I can fire at that
king, which is probably scaring my out-of-position opponent more than it scares
me. I bet just over half the pot, which allows me to escape should he check-raise.
On this occasion my opponent folded. Remember that a king coming down at any
stage is slightly less scary than an ace as there will generally be fewer kings in your
opponent(s)’s range.
In general it is good poker to make a second continuation bet at the turn card when
the turn card is the highest card on the board. Note, though, that this bet can become
expensive when you are less deep-stacked and so you always need to consider your
commitment level to the pot.
In situations like this, always anticipate a raise from your opponent and know in
advance how you are going to react before you choose an action.
Next I want to look at some awkward flops with an overcard. In general, as the
preflop aggressor, you want to be making one strong C-bet and if that is not enough
to take the pot, re-evaluate on the turn. That is what I have to do in this spot against
a loose player on level 2 of a 6-max SNG.

My opponent has limped preflop and then called a 5x raise to 150 chips. The flop
comes down Kh 9s 5s (PS1 and SPR5), he checks and I C-bet for 180 chips (note
that checking behind is not impossible on this board if a small pot is desired). My
opponent calls and the turn card is the dangerous 3s. Now I do have some reasons

57
to double-barrel this. Not only do I hold a strong pair, but I also hold the Qs giving
me a bunch of probable outs to make a flush. My opponent seems loose and passive
and has shown weakness at every stage of the hand, so I am by no means certain
that he must hold the king or a flush. I proceed with a 300 bet, my opponent calls,
the Jh is the river and I check quickly behind him. He shows As 5d. Although it is
possible to make some chips on the river with value bets against this type of
opponent, it is only correct when your equity against his calling range is at least
50%. Here, the likelihood of being called by a better hand outweighs the likelihood
of being called by a worse one.
Here is a similar example from a hyper-turbo: I sit on the big blind with 428 chips
holding QQ and the hijack min-raises. The rest fold, I re-raise to 100, the hijack
calls and the flop is 8s Ks 3h (PS3 and SPR1). I am out of position and C-bet 120
which my opponent calls.

The turn card is the 6s. To call that C-bet my opponent really ought to have the king,
a pocket pair, a set or a flush draw. That would mean I am only ahead now against a
small number of hands, but crucially I have picked up the flush draw. I need to
work out how committed I am to my hand. I have 10 outs even against an
opponent holding a set. The only hand that has me crushed here is the nut flush.
Against everything else I have close to the right odds to gamble. After all, it is only
208 chips to win 668, which means I need a 24% chance of winning to justify
gambling. I will also sometimes face weak hands like pocket pairs, even A3 and
occasionally my opponent might even fold. So my commitment level to this hand is
clearly 100%. I cannot fold. That is the first part of the decision-making process
complete. I then need to determine whether I want my opponent to fold or not. Are
there any hands he would fold? A small pocket pair, A3 perhaps? Not a lot else. In

58
fact, any hand he folds is likely to be a 5-outer or worse. If my opponent’s range of
hands to fold here only has a 10% chance of winning or worse, there is a case to be
made for me to bet smaller at the turn to encourage a call. In truth it is a very minor
point and I still prefer keeping it simple by pushing all-in when the bet size is less
than half the pot. At any rate, you should not be checking to induce a bluff in case he
simply checks behind to catch a card.
In the previous example, I continue at the turn, but I am not committed and that is
because with a deeper stack you must be wary of committing too much with
marginal holdings. In this hand, I am committed, I push on the turn and my opponent
calls with J8. The Js is the river and I win with a flush.
Your “Went to Showdown Percentage” (WTSD) or your willingness to go to a
showdown will increase dramatically the shorter the effective stack. The deeper
the effective stack, the less committed you should be and the more cautious you
should be of going to showdown. In the first example with an effective stack of 63
big blinds, I am never committed to second pair, but in the second example with an
effective stack of 22 big blinds and antes, second pair with a few flush outs is
enough.
The next hand I want to look at is an example of when the turn card does not make
sense to bet at. There are many times when checking the turn becomes the most
profitable play after having led the betting preflop and on the flop. You should not
always be double-barrelling just because you hold QQ. You should be considering
your opponent’s likely range of cards and how likely he is to have you beaten. You
should also consider his aggression factor as sometimes checking the turn and then
catching a bluff on the river can be a more profitable play (R/B/X/C).
In this example, I am heads-up, holding QQ with an effective stack of 41BB and I
raise from the button. The villain calls and the flop is As Th Td: (PS1 and SPR10)

59
When my opponent calls my C-bet here I believe there is a very strong chance he
holds an ace or a ten. Most of the time he will fold when he has not connected with
this flop as the ace high board is not very good for bluffing at. In these spots I
would consider folding to a surprise turn bet and I would always check behind on
the turn. In general when the board is paired, this alone is a good reason for
slowing down the betting. In this example the turn card is 9d which does bring a
few additional draws to the table, but I am not really concerned with those draws.
My opponent checks and I check behind. I intend to fold to a large bet on the river
and possibly call a small one. And of course there are still 2 magic cards that could
fall.

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The river card of Qc sparked several raises culminating in the end of the
tournament. I was never going to lose a big pot in this hand as I am in position and
that ace protects me from ever getting committed to the hand. Most times when I
miss the river I will simply lose a small pot.
The next flop I want to address is another one overcard flop, but in a multi-way pot.
I am often asked how to negotiate such awkward spots and the answer is not always
obvious. In this hand I re-raise preflop to 160 after the cutoff opens. Big blind,
small blind and cutoff all call the re-raise and the flop comes down 9c Ad Jh: (PS1,
PS1, PS1 and SPR 2)

All three opponents check the flop and the action is on me. If one of them had bet I
would have folded, for it would be most unusual for a player to bet into the preflop
re-raiser on this board without at least an ace. If I am against even just two
opponents here I know that a C-bet will be profitable, but C-bets against 3
opponents do not work very often.
There are some key factors which drive my decision here. Firstly, I am the re-raiser
preflop and so I am expected to bet and be strong. Failing to bet behind a preflop
re-raise is usually a mistake. Secondly, I am in position which makes any future
betting easier and thirdly I have been observing my opponents’ bets preflop and
postflop and have seen weakness from all of them. Despite all of that, I am still
reluctant to put in a 50% pot bet as I am not convinced I can make them all fold
33% of the time and 320 would be a large amount to lose here. For that reason I bet
just 180, which only needs to work 18% of the time and will certainly achieve that
number. If this is confusing, look at this chart, which should make things clearer:
Bet size (percentage of Percentage success Percentage success

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 pot) required estimated
ALL IN (215%) 69% 45%
640 chips (100%) 50% 40%
480 chips (75%) 43% 35%
427 chips (66%) 40% 33%
320 chips (50%) 33% 30%
180 chips (28%) 18% 25%
30 chips (4.7%) 4.4% 10%

This chart represents a summary of some of what you should be thinking about
when you ponder on your C-bet size. The first 2 columns contain constants and
should be learned. It takes very little time and it will make you more powerful
at the poker table. If you bet 100% of the pot, you always need it to work 50% of
the time to be profitable (in its own right, not factoring in other ways of winning the
pot), whereas if you bet half the pot, it needs to work 33% of the time to show a
profit. The third column is my estimation of the success rate in the example above.
If you have already learned the numbers in the first two columns, whilst you are
playing you can direct all your thoughts to the final column, comparing the success
required with the success likelihood. This is not an easy task, but it is far from
impossible and gets easier with practice. The numbers in red show that a C-bet of
this size would not make an automatic profit (though I do have around a 4% chance
of improving on the turn and a 10% chance of improving by the river if I make a set
or a straight).
In this situation I decide the best course of action is to choose a smaller bet size (in
blue) where the estimated success exceeds the success required.
The small C-bet size has its place, but you should rarely select a small C-bet size
(less than 40%) if normal C-bet sizes are profitable. The problem with small C-
bets is that they invite players to bluff-raise you or to call along on a draw. In
essence you are giving players good odds to stay involved and not protecting your
hand enough. It can also lead to you being exposed to difficult future betting, which
can often be avoided by making larger bets. The smallest possible bet of 30 chips
here is not much better than a check, but if you are looking for further information
from your opponents it does force them into making a second decision on the flop.
Sometimes opponents are so suspicious of small C-bets including minimum bets
and so focused on the strength of their own hand that they will fold quite readily to
small C-bets, even the very smallest of ones.
In pots where you are the re-raiser preflop, you are far less likely to be bluffed
against later in the hand and this is another reason why I am content with my bet

62
size in this example. I believe betting 180 chips is enough to discover whether an
opponent holds an ace. On this occasion they all folded.
If at any point an opponent does throw out a raise or a check-raise on a board like
this in a multi-way pot, you have no real playback, so under normal circumstances
you should fold even if you suspect your opponent may be bluffing.
So if multi-way pots and boards with overcards should not deter you from C-
betting, how about a combination of those factors? In this example, I am playing 4-
handed and the cutoff limps, small blind completes, I raise 4BB to 200 and both
call. We see this flop: Kh Ad Js (PS3, PS3 and SPR1.5)

There are 2 overcards and 2 opponents. The chances that neither of them has an ace
or king are very slim indeed. 3 broadway cards normally promise plenty of action.
A C-bet will have a very low success rate, especially in a 3-way pot. Nevertheless,
a C-bet is still worthy of consideration here. A bet of 200 chips (33% of the pot)
only needs to work 25% of the time to show a profit. Add into that equation the fact
that both opponents are playing fairly loose ranges and suddenly even this flop is a
contender. A large bet might be enough to make a player with a king fold.
An analysis of my database has shown that a C-bet here loses around the same
number of chips as checking, so it is a very marginal choice. My stack size, though,
is another issue. If further investment in this pot does not pay off, I would be left
with a small stack for the rest of the tournament. In fact, I checked the flop and
wound up winning a large pot when the river card brought a 10 and made me a
straight.
Summary:

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 On 3 undercard flops, double-barrel even if an ace or king hits the turn
On 1 overcard flops, C-bet almost always
Anticipate your opponents’ actions and prepare a response
Understand how committed you are to a hand
C-bet sizing – success % required v success % estimated
JJ (Fishhooks; Jaybirds)
Jacks are one of the most debated hands in poker and experts still disagree on how
to play them. Early in tournaments I like to play them fairly passively, raising
modestly with them and avoiding huge pots. They are also not an automatic re-
raising hand for me preflop. There are times when I can make more money with
jacks when I treat them as a middle pair rather than as a premium pair. If you play
them as a premium pair you should follow the advice for AA, but be aware that you
could find yourself in a preflop raising war and JJ performs poorly against other
premium hands. It is important that you consider all the preflop conditions before
deciding. Whichever way you choose to play them, make sure you have a plan of
action postflop.
Your first postflop action should generally mirror your preflop action, so if you
are playing out of position and have cold-called a raise, you should normally be
starting the postflop action with a check, rather than a donk-bet. Note that a donk-
bet has become known as a donk-bet because weak players tend to do it frequently
and it is problematic to lead out of position, but there are rare times when a donk-
bet can be an excellent choice, so try not to be influenced by the negative
associations with its name.
Usually, there are more profitable alternatives to donk-betting, namely check-
raising, check-calling and check-folding. Good players find ways to make money
out of position by mixing up preflop 3bets with these 4 postflop options. The truth
is that preflop 3bets are usually the most profitable option when playing JJ, but as I
will examine in the next chapter, the type of tournament and the situation you are in
can play a huge role in this decision. Cash game players should usually 3bet out of
position and either 3bet or call in position.
I am going to look at postflop action firstly when I enter the pot as the defender and
secondly when I enter the pot as the aggressor.
Section one: JJ as the preflop defender
In my first example I am facing a strong preflop raise from quite a strong player
whose range was around 8% from UTG. Against this type of range, you should be
folding most of your hands from the blinds, but I felt that JJ was just strong enough
to play. I did not have enough chips to 3bet and then fold to a 4bet, so I decided to
call and then commit to a flop with no scare cards:

64
This very dry flop 7s 7c 3d (PS6 and SPR3) is one I am committed to. There are
only the 3 big hands that concern me and I am not going to find an escape against
those hands now. This is an important psychological step in the thought process
when holding JJ as I am free to think only about those hands that I have beaten,
namely 88,99,TT,AQ and AK.
I was confident of his range as I had over 3,000 hands of information. I could donk-
bet inducing a raise and then I could push over him, but this might then lose the
action from AQ and AK. He could also flat-call fairly cheaply. If I check, he is sure
to C-bet and a small check-raise might look like a bluff as this is a play I would
often make with just overcards on this dry board. That is the play I made here, he
called the check-raise indicating that he was committed, I shoved on the turn which
was the 8h and he called with AK and a 12% shot of winning the hand. The river
was Ks knocking me out.
A check-call on the flop here is the standard play as long as the C-bet is a decent
size, but the reason I prefer the check-raise is that I want to build up the pot so I can
get all-in on the turn card. My stack size and my opponent’s low aggression factor
are very relevant to this.
Ask yourself how likely you are to be ahead and whether your hand needs to be
protected. Sometimes check-raising to protect the hand is better than check-calling
and vice-versa. On the dry flop in my example hand, I do not really need to protect
the hand too much for if he just holds two overcards he is unlikely to connect with
the turn, so this is a good reason for check-calling. In situations like this you can
often get more value check-calling than check-raising. My purpose for raising was
maximizing the pot size and that was the deciding factor.

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In this next example I have called a raise preflop from the small blind with JJ
against a cutoff raiser with a normal-looking PFR of 14%. Remember this is an
SNG and so 3-betting preflop early in the tournament and playing a large pot might
endanger your tournament life even if it offers more +EV.

The flop is 3s 6d Qc (PS6 and SPR8.5). On a dry board like this I will usually be a
long way ahead and sometimes a long way behind. When you are a long way ahead
and defending a hand out of position it is hard to make a big pot. When you are a
long way behind you will tend to lose large pots. That is a significant problem. The
popular play in these spots is to check-call your way through the hand, but it can
lead you to being bluffed off pots, overtaken by overcards falling and bleeding
chips to the opponent who flopped a queen. Check-calling might seem like the best
play, but in reality it is not.
The donk-bet fares slightly better as an option, but the check-raise should be your
weapon of choice here. You have to invest a significant portion of your chips in the
raise, but it is the only option which asks a clear question to your opponent – do
you have the queen (or better) or not? On boards like this it is highly profitable as a
bluff in its own right, but it is useful holding a good pair as backup in case you are
called by smaller pocket pairs or hands such as A6. Should your opponent call the
raise you are not in a good situation, but you simply have to continue with a turn
bet.
So in the first two examples, the strongest possible postflop play proves to be the
most profitable and this is often going to be the case on dry boards. Dry boards
should be attacked. This goes for multi-way pots too, despite the greater risk.
Check-calling, check-folding and donk-betting will all fare worse than check-
raising.

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There is a lot more sense in calling a raise preflop when you are in position as the
postflop play is going to be significantly easier. Whether you call or 3-bet might
depend on the tournament dynamics as in my next example where I am playing in a
sensitive 3-man SNG bubble. I could 3-bet and play a larger pot, but instead I
prefer to conceal the strength of my hand and crucially avoid a scenario where I
could go broke by controlling the pot size.

The small blind raises 3x in to my big blind and I call and see this excellent, but
dangerous flop 7s Js 8s (PS4 and SPR8). When my opponent C-bets, raising to
protect my hand is extremely attractive, but if my opponent calls or re-raises I
could find myself busting out of the tournament, so I opt for the more cautious flat-
call. This way if the turn card is dangerous I can get through the hand in position
without going broke. Although there are some bad turn and river cards, remember
that there are also many turn and river cards that could really help me significantly.
If I turn or river a full house, my opponent could easily make a straight, a flush or 3
of a kind on turn or river and I can still win a huge pot. In fact the turn card is 5c
and my opponent checks, showing weakness. I bet half the pot, as I need to charge
my opponent for drawing to the river card, he calls and the river is Qh.

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I decide I think my opponent has missed a draw or has a small pair, so I make a
small value bet of 400 after he checks. It seems unlikely that he has a flush at this
point, so I would even call a small check-raise here, which will often be the queen,
2 pair or a bluff. On this occasion my opponent folded and I won a modest pot.
If you are going to play a hand defensively like this in an attempt to keep the pot
small, it is far better to do so in position.
In the next example I decide to call a raise preflop and see a flop from the button
early in an SNG. The big blind also calls and we see this flop: 8s 5s Qc (PS4, PS4
and SPR5)

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The big blind checks and the hijack makes a C-bet of just under half the pot. In this
kind of situation I have two main options. I would not consider folding in this
position as I am certain that I have greater than 50% equity against both players. I
can call and see what my opponent does next or I can raise. One of the major
factors in this decision is the 3rd player on the big blind. If I were to call, I would
be giving good pot odds for him to stay involved. I would be failing to isolate and
losing an opportunity to gain more information about the hijack’s hand. I would
also be gifting him an additional card, which is more likely to help him than to help
me.
Calling in position is often a reasonable play, but is usually best when you are
either very strong, you have a reason for wanting to see the next card or you want to
exercise pot control. In this spot, the turn card is highly unlikely to help me, so I
choose to raise to find out right now whether my opponent is strong or not. This is a
solid player who is likely to fold without a flush draw, a queen or better. He also
has a high C-bet percentage which increases the likelihood that I am ahead. If he
calls, he is very likely to check the turn and at that point I can reassess as the
aggressor. On this occasion he re-raised and I had a very simple fold. Calling may
seem like a cheaper option, but failing to gather any further information can work
out a lot more expensive.
Whenever your opponent re-raises, your normal response should be to fold.
Section two: JJ as the preflop aggressor
In many situations JJ should be played in a similar way to the other big pocket
pairs. I rarely make oversized raises in an attempt to get 10% of the effective stack
in the middle with JJ, but if do hit that number, then I’m happy to commit all my
chips postflop on a 3 undercard flop. In deeper-stacked situations, you should try to
play a smaller pot to avoid getting all of your chips in against a set.
I want to look at the more difficult flops with overcard(s). These need to be tackled
differently from the hands played out of position as often your opponent’s range is
going to be a lot narrower calling a raise preflop than it would be simply making a
preflop raise.
First here is an example of a one overcard flop playing as the raiser in position and
facing a donk-bet:

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On a dry flop of 8h 4s Qs (PS2 and SPR4) you should start by thinking about your
opponent’s likely hand range. What little information I have suggests he may be a
little loose/passive. He has limp-called a 6xBB raise preflop and then made a
small donk-bet into the pot. I try to start my analysis by being respectful and
consider it possible that he could have flopped a set or top pair and led out to try
and induce a raise. He may also be holding a monster hand like AA as his PFR
statistic is currently 0%. Some players will donk-bet at boards like this with any
pair or draw. They are giving themselves an extremely cheap opportunity to win the
pot right here and if their opponent just flat-calls behind then they get at least a
cheap card and can consider taking a real shot on the turn.
If I know my opponent is a strong player, I am far more afraid of the donk-bet.
Here I believe I am still very likely to be ahead and I want more information about
my opponent’s hand. The size of the donk-bet is crucial. The larger the donk-
bet size, the stronger your opponent’s hand is likely to be. If he makes a half
pot-sized bet or more, it increases its credibility and at this point calling becomes
more profitable than raising.
In this example the donk-bet is less than 30% of the pot and any bets of this nature
should be routinely raised, which is what I do. I raised to 200, he called and the
turn card was 7c.

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My decision on the turn is influenced by the fact that my opponent may still be
holding a hand such as QT.; Actually he has shown weakness twice preflop by
limping and only calling, and twice postflop when he only calls my raise and then
checks the turn. So although there is a small possibility he has a queen or better, I
should be fairly confident and a bet of half the pot would protect my hand well
against a hurtful river card.
On the flipside, I could exercise some pot control at this point with just second pair
and use my position on the river either to catch a bluff or to make a value bet. One
of the problems of raising a donk-bet is that the pot size can spiral out of control, so
using the turn card to check behind your opponent (R/R/X) is a way of getting to the
river card slightly cheaper. Certainly both options are available to you as they often
are when you sit in position.
I checked and the river card was 7d. My opponent bet 100 into a pot of 690 and I
made the simplest of calls. There are too many weak queens in his range to justify
raising. Note that on all one overcard flops, an ace is far worse than a king or
queen. On ace high flops you should exercise much more caution.
This was an example of postflop scenario 2 (PS2). Far more common will be
scenarios 3 and 1, where you are the preflop raiser either in position or out of
position. In both situations, you should be C-betting every flop. In scenario 1 let us
examine what can happen after the C-bet.

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** this is applicable for C-betting scenario 3 as well, simply replace XF, XC, XR
with F, C and R.
If your opponent check-folds, you are happy enough as you win a small pot. If your
opponent check-calls, you are still happy as you are generally going to make a
profit. You are the aggressor and although you have to negotiate the turn and river,
you are still in a very good situation. The more complicated response is the check-
raise or a simple raise if your opponent is in position.
If there are 2 overcards, you should simply fold to a check-raise, but even if there
is only 1 overcard on the board, folding is often going to be the best play.
It is important that you avoid flat-calling in this spot as you will often be
bleeding chips with only 2 outs. Most frequently you will just end up folding on
the turn when your opponent bets again. When you need information, flat-calling is
not often going to help much. Here is a simple example hand:

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I have raised from the button, been called by the big blind and he has then check-
raised my C-bet on a board of 2c 5c As (PS1 and SPR3.5). I simply have no place
to go and must fold. My opponent will be holding an ace too often for me to justify
fighting back, even though I know he might be bluffing some of the time.
If you are deep-stacked enough, re-raising the check-raiser may offer a solution in
spots when you believe your opponent is bluffing a high percentage of the time. It
ought to force anyone bluffing to fold their hand and should reveal whether you are
ahead or behind. If your opponent calls or re-raises again though, you must be
disciplined enough to fold even if you have invested a significant percentage of
your stack. Good players avoid all-in situations when they have zero or close to
zero outs. Respecting the check-raise by C-bet-folding is usually going to be the
best strategy.
Summary:
Have Postflop Plan of Action
First Postflop Action should generally mirror Preflop Action (attack or
defence)
Dry boards should be attacked (often with a check-raise)
Assess the meaning of the Donk-bet
On all one overcard flops, an ace is worse than a king or queen
If you need information, avoid flat-calling bets
Respect re-raises and check-raises

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AK/AKs (Big Slick; Anna Kournikova)
AK is a hand which many players find frustrating. Part of the reason for this is the
gap between its perceived showdown strength and its win-rate (hence the Anna
Kournikova comparison, it looks good but never wins). So let us quickly remind
ourselves of how strong AK really is by looking at its win-rate in this table.

The columns represent the number of opponents each holding random hands and the
numbers are the percentage win-rate (showdown equity). The showdown value of
AK and AKs is very good, but not particularly impressive in comparison with a
moderate hand such as 88.
In truth, the table only gives the equity against 100% ranges and AK does
outperform most hands against narrower ranges, but it is still not great. In
tournaments with high WTSD percentages such as hyper turbos or in any scenario
without postflop play, AK is only as strong as its showdown value. Note also that
like any connected (or suited) cards, the hand does relatively well in multi-way
pots.
The reason why AK is a premium hand is that unlike medium pocket pairs, in
addition to strong showdown winnings, it is also an extremely potent force at
winning hands through non-showdown. Being guaranteed to have at least two

74
overcards on a flop enables you to play this hand with extreme aggression and it is
this aggression which boosts the non-showdown performance. Other broadway
cards also perform well through non-showdown, but none have the same combined
strength as AK. For those of you using Holdem Manager or Poker Tracker you can
see this clearly by looking at a graph such as this one for my recent performance
with AKo:

Whenever a hand performs well through both showdown and non-showdown, you
ought to be inviting opponents to play the hand postflop. Players who enjoy pushing
AK all-in preflop whilst still fairly deep-stacked (more than 30BB) will wind up
making fewer chips overall than those who dare to see a flop. Sometimes players
look to avoid flops through a “fear of flopping” which is only rational if their
postflop play is significantly weaker than their opponents’ play.
I am going to divide this section up into two. Firstly I will examine flops with an
ace or king and secondly, flops with neither an ace nor a king.
1: AK/AKs with an ace or king high flop
These are usually fairly easy flops to play. You can usually proceed with unbridled
aggression, especially if you are not deep-stacked. Often simply hitting top-pair on
the flop is going to commit you to the hand.
SPR (Stack to Pot Relative Risk AK flop Top Pair -
Ratio) Committed?
0-3 Very low Yes
4-6 Low Yes
7-10 Medium 70%
11-14 High No

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 15+ Very high No

However, in deeper-stacked situations you need to pay attention to those opponents

who may have hit a set and also to very wet boards. In this first example I am sat on
the button in the early stages of a 6-max SNG. Preflop the cutoff opens with a small
raise, which I decide to minimum re-raise. Normally, I avoid minimum re-raising
preflop as it less effective in isolating to one opponent, but with a suited or
connected hand that performs well in multi-way pots, isolation is of less
importance to me and I am keen not to lose action with AK by raising too much.
Remember also that in an SNG, you should generally fold AK to a 4-bet in the early
stages, so you do not want to go investing too much preflop if the effective stack is
more than 40BB. The blinds folded, the cutoff called and the flop came down 4c
Ad 9h: (PS1 and SPR5)

This is a classic dry flop which normally means your C-bet size should be
around 40-50% of the pot. Indeed a small C-bet would be “acceptable” here.
There are 3 reasons why I choose a larger bet size. Firstly, I am particularly strong
and I am already thinking about winning a massive pot. If I bet too small now, it
will be harder to get maximum value later in the hand and my opponent might not
feel committed by the river. Secondly, my opponent appears to be loose/passive
and the best way to exploit players who call too much is to bet hard when
strong. Thirdly, if my opponent were to turn a set or two pair, I am most likely
going to lose a massive pot, so I want to set the price high.
The villain calls, indicating that he likely has an ace or a set. If he has an ace, I

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want to extract maximum value and if he has a set, I will lose all my chips however
I play it, so this situation is simple and I should proceed with a large value bet. The
turn card is Th. At this point I am not concerned about the straight draws as my
opponent could not realistically have called the flop bet on a straight draw, but he
may hold two hearts, which would give him additional outs on the river. My strong
value bet should be around 75 to 100% of the pot. The river card is the friendly 6s.
Unless he has precisely A6, I cannot expect my opponent to have improved on the
river, so I value bet the river, hoping to get called by AJ or AQ. If that river card is
a jack or a queen, you have to work out how profitable a bet on the river is going to
be. There may be occasions when you are so concerned about your opponent’s
range being very narrow that you decide to check behind on the river. Usually
though when your opponent check-calls all the way to the river and does not lead at
the river, this is a sign of weakness and you should proceed with a third bet.

In this case, my opponent appears to be loose and the river card has brought limited
danger, so I happily go all-in and win the hand.
In the next example the flop is two tone and has 2 high cards, which increases the
risk factor as your opponent may have a drawing hand. I raise from the button with
the effective stack at just over 30BB, the big blind calls and the flop comes Js Ac
3c: (PS1 and SPR6)

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On wet boards you should generally keep the C-bet around 60% to 75% of the
pot, so my bet of 150 is okay for a board that is just slightly wet. The big blind
should normally fold now unless he has a strong draw, an ace, or better.
His check-raise is a concern, but I am happy to commit my chips if no club comes
on the turn. Normally a player check-raising is holding top pair or better rather than
a drawing hand, but this player is very loose, so I would keep a fairly open mind.
Having said that, on an ace high board only very weak players would check-raise
on a total bluff, so I should expect him to have at least a flush draw. I could re-raise
now and push towards a showdown, but I might lose action from some weak aces.
When you are in position, you always have the option to flat-call, knowing that you
can always raise on the turn instead. That’s what I choose here. I want to give my
opponent the feeling of strength now, so that he feels committed on the turn card.
I also have the option of making a large, committed bet in the unlikely event that he
checks the turn.

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The 6s comes down and my opponent leads out with a small bet. I know I am
committed to this now, so if he has me beaten, then that is simply unfortunate. Most
times I am going to make lots of money in this spot, so I must proceed strongly.
Now that there are 2 flush dangers on the board, I see little sense in staggering my
bets across turn and river. My natural raise size would be around 750 chips, which
is more than half of the villain’s stack, so I simply put them all in. He called and
showed ATo.
Finally I want to look at two wetter boards to discover at what point it ever makes
sense to slow down after having flopped top pair with AK(s). In the first one, I am
the raiser in position, the board is 7s As Js, and the SPR is less than 4: (PS2)

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My decision as to how committed I am to this flop is partly based on what
percentage of the effective stack is already in the middle. Here the SPR is too low
for me to consider folding. If the SPR were over 5, I would need to be more
cautious. I decide to commit to the situation and would only consider slowing down
should a flush card hit the turn.
On really wet boards which are likely to have connected well with your
opponent’s calling range, pot-sized bets can be more effective than half pot-
sized bets. I do not want my opponent getting the turn card cheaply.
In this example I overbet the pot. I am doing this for two purposes: firstly, I
recognize the danger on the board and have a strong need to protect my hand, and
secondly, if my opponent calls this bet, I will be able to go all-in on the turn with a
natural bet should no spade fall. The turn is usually the best place to go all-in
when you are protecting a hand against a likely drawing hand. Planning ahead
for this is good poker.

My opponent did call indicating either an ace or a flush draw and the 4h was the
turn card. I went all-in for 720 chips. Note that although my opponent has 11 outs,
by getting the chips in on the turn, I have given him poor odds for calling and
arrived at the optimum gambling spot for me.
In the next example I raise from the button, am called by the big blind and am faced
with a similar situation with a flop of 5d Kd 4d: (PS1 and SPR4)

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If my opponent were to check-raise my C-bet here, I would be forced into a
decision. In this spot the SPR is more than 4, so my commitment level is slightly
less clear than in the previous example. You should try to avoid all-in situations
when you could have zero or close to zero outs. Nevertheless, a large part of my
opponent’s check-raising range includes hands that I am beating, so I would still
proceed with the gamble in this situation.
In fact, my opponent check-called and the Jd came on the turn. His check-call is
consistent with a drawing hand, so the Jd is a particularly bad card for me,
completing both the obvious flush and also improving the specific hand KJ. As a
result, I consider myself to be behind now and have 2 options: either I bet one more
time and hope my opponent folds or I simply check behind and try to negotiate the
river as cheaply as possible. I decided that I was not ahead often enough to justify
putting more chips into the pot and checked behind. The river was the Qc:

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If my opponent were to make a significant bet now of more than half the pot, I
would call or fold based on my pot odds for calling against my perceived
percentage chance of winning. For example if he bet half the pot, I would need a
33% chance of winning to justify calling, which would make for a marginal fold. If
he goes all-in, the decision is an easy fold. As it happens, he checked again,
showing weakness and I checked behind as this is not a good board to bluff at.
Despite a dream flop for him, it was difficult for him to extract any value from the
hand and the ominous looking Jd actually saved me some chips.
So we have found a spot with AK where, having flopped top pair, you ought to
slow down on the turn. Even here, though, you should consider betting at the turn
card. Aggression and large bet sizes are correct, but remember to excercise caution
in deeper-stacked situations. Cash game players in particular should always be
wary of building a large pot with just one pair.
2: AK/AKs with neither ace nor king on flop
Often you will miss the flop with AK and be stuck holding just 2 overcards with no
draw. This is not a good situation and you must accept that. Too many players stare
down at AK and assume that they should continue with wild aggression.
Appropriate aggression is fine, such as making a C-bet, but if your opponent plays
back at you, folding should be routine.
Being the preflop raiser is the key to making a profit on any missed flop as a
C-bet will generally be profitable. Having two overcards helps the situation as
does being in position, but the driving force behind playing missed flops at a profit
is being the preflop raiser.
Even when holding AK if you are defending the hand preflop, you are often going to

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have to give it up if you completely miss the board. There are situations when you
might try a risky check-raise, but you should avoid calling any postflop bets unless
you have a reason better than “but I’ve got AK!”
Calling is not usually smart when you have only 6 potential outs.
Here I am sat playing heads-up with an effective stack of just over 14BB, playing
against a loose-passive opponent. I raise just over 2x from the button and am called
preflop and I C-bet into a board of 3c Ts 4s: (PS1 and SPR3)

When my passive opponent check-raises all-in I very much doubt it is a total bluff.
He will either have a pair - or better, or a good draw. Mostly he will just hold a
pair. Whenever you are calling an all-in, you can assess whether you have the right
odds for calling by estimating your equity. In this spot, I think he has a pair or better
67% of the time and a draw 33% of the time. When he is ahead, he will win around
72% of the time (I have 6 outs plus a few backdoor draws) and when he is drawing
he will win around 50% of the time.
Sometimes he holds hands such as A3 or KT which will improve his overall
success and there are other variables which complicate the mathematics too, but his
overall equity here works out at around 65%. Believing that I will win only 35% of
the time, should I call or fold?
This is an EV calculation which can be done by comparing the amount to call with
the effective pot size. In this case it is 1801 chips to win 3,075 chips meaning that I
require 38% equity to justify calling. I did not have the right equity and therefore I
made a marginal fold. Now this might seem complicated to work out at the
table, but this is exactly what you should be doing (as outlined in the earlier
chapter on pot odds).

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You can see by analyzing hands like these that a hand that feels strong and would
normally be one you commit to is not worth over-investing in if the flop is poor.
One obvious advantage of C-betting with 2 overcards is that 12% of the time you
will hit the turn card and another 12% of the time the river card, so a C-bet will
win lots of small pots through non-showdown, but will also win (and sometimes
lose) some larger pots through showdown.
In this spot, I make a small re-raise preflop and am called both by the big blind and
the initial raiser. The flop comes down 9d 5s 4d: (PS1, PS1 and SPR4)

Both players check and I make a C-bet for several reasons. Firstly, I am the re-
raiser and I need to bet again to continue to represent a monster hand like AA.
Secondly, although I have 2 opponents and the flop is poor for a raiser, they have
shown weakness preflop and postflop, so I consider a C-bet of half the pot will win
around 40% of the time (perhaps higher in a re-raised pot). This is comfortably
more than the 33% success rate required. Thirdly, I have 2 overcards, which might
help me on turn or river. Indeed the big blind calls and the turn card is Kh:

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When the turn card does help you, you should now ask yourself how committed you
are to the pot. In this example I should not have much hesitation now in getting all
my chips in. If your opponent has a set or two pair, there will be no escape, but by
re-raising preflop (to around 10% of the effective stack) and C-betting you have
charged a price which an opponent should not be paying. Sometimes you will lose
a hand like this against a calling station with K9 or 44, but that should not deter you
from committing to the hand.
When he checks the turn he is showing every indication that he has a drawing hand,
so charge a high price on this street. I go for two-thirds of the pot, which looks
natural, but only just prices him off a flush draw (520 chips to call for implied
winnings of 1920). Betting any less than this is a mistake. He calls and then check-
folds the river.
Many players will overpay to see draws, so you need to ensure you charge
them an appropriate amount on the turn card, often by going all-in. Even though
an all-in bet on the turn here looks less natural, it can be the perfect play against
calling stations who will continuously overpay.
Now I want to look at some flops where I pick up a draw of some description.
These are often the ones where your commitment level to the hand is unclear and
you must think hard about your opponents’ ranges and your likely equity (percentage
change of winning) and EV (expected value).
If you pick up a good draw, eg a flush draw with 2 overcards and potentially 15
outs or 54% equity, aggressive play makes the most chips. By making positive
plays, you will win chips both through non-showdown and through showdown.
Exercise caution, though, whenever the board is paired, especially in the early

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stages of SNGs.

In this 6-max SNG, I am the preflop raiser in position, C-betting into a monotone
board of Th 7h 5h: (PS1 and SPR6). Although I do not hold the nut flush draw and
could be drawing dead to a made flush, I am prepared to gamble here against a
loose opponent playing a very wide range, especially since I have a chip
advantage.
My equity against his range on this flop is around 66%, higher if you consider his
negative actions so far. If he were to check-raise, my equity would drop
significantly, though not enough to make me fold my hand.
Whenever you are check-raised, you should try and re-assess your equity. This
can be very complex to do, but you should try. I could still count a likely 15 outs or
54% equity against a check-raiser here. Sometimes he may be holding just the Ah in
which case I am already in front, sometimes he has top pair, and sometimes more
than one pair. You need to consider how likely each of these scenarios are. If your
opponent only check-raises with made hands, you would be well advised to fold
even very strong-looking draws.
In this case, my opponent actually check-called, indicating a drawing hand or a
weak pair perhaps. If I miss the turn card, I then need to work out whether another
bet is going to be profitable. That will depend on what the turn card is and how
likely my opponent is to fold (if playing online use your HUD stats to help). In this
hand I got lucky on the turn card, which was Kd:

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Now I believe I am ahead a very high percentage of the time, so I am happy to
gamble, but I am only holding one pair, so my desire to protect the hand is strong. A
normal-sized bet of 300-400 chips will often be the right play here, but against a
really loose player who likes to call a lot, an all-in move on the turn may be more
profitable. It prevents calling stations from calling on the turn and then check-
folding the river if they miss. That is what I choose here, my opponent calls with
68o and just 6 straight outs, the river was 5c and I extracted maximum value from
the hand.
Most times when you are holding a draw with AK and the villain calls your C-bet,
you are going to miss the turn card and be in a tricky spot. Very often, the most
profitable play will be to make another brave bet, though this will depend on how
much fold equity you have and how likely you are to be ahead. You want to be able
to make your opponent fold and win the hand through non-showdown. Check-
calling or calling any bets on the turn is a mistake unless you have the right calling
odds (which you seldom will have). Needless to say, all scenarios are easier and
more profitable when you are in position.
In this example, I am playing on level 1 of an SNG, so I am reluctant to throw large
numbers of chips into the pot. I am the preflop raiser out of position (PS3), my C-
bet has been called and I am drawing to just 2 overcards: 4s 8h 7c 3c

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The problem with double-barreling the 3c turn card is that it is a blank. This card
will not normally have changed the situation much and so if your opponent has
called preflop and on the flop, he is almost certain to call again on the turn. If the
turn card is a high card, I can bet with much more authority and often force a fold.
So what reason do I have for betting again here and why do I choose such a small
bet size? There are several purposes for the bet. The main reason for betting again
is to continue being the aggressor in an uncertain pot. If I check instead, my
opponent can then take over the betting and bluff me off the pot. Remember you do
not want to be calling out of position here. By betting I give him 3 options instead
of 2, which gives me more information about his hand. If he raises, I can fold easily
(and one of the drawbacks of these “blocking” bets is that they are vulnerable to
good players who sense weakness and raise on the bluff); if he calls, I have kept
the pot quite small and might still win at showdown (indeed I should win around
47% of the time against his likely range here); and occasionally he will also fold,
which adds terrific value to the bet.
Against weak opponents these bets can be extremely effective as weaker
opponents pay less attention to bet size and do not always understand their pot
odds. Strictly, I should still be betting slightly more here and in an MTT, a normal
bet size is going to be more appropriate.
The river card is 8s and I failed to improve my hand:

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At this point I consider my equity to be around 40-50%. It may be higher depending
on how wide my opponent’s range is. I have 2 options on the river: bet or check. If
I am ahead and I bet, he will usually fold, whereas if I am behind and I bet, he will
usually call. This is the nature of playing out of position. Betting on the river here
only makes sense if you can make a better hand fold and this is not a good situation
for trying a bluff. Often when you are playing out of position on the river and
the river card does not improve your hand, checking is going to offer more
value than betting.
That is certainly the case here. My opponent might decide to value bet with a
genuine hand or he might decide to bluff with nothing. Checking the river allows me
to make extra chips by catching a bluff and limits the damage when I am behind. I
check, he bluffs 300 into a pot of 440. Knowing I have easily the 29% equity
required to justify calling, I snap call and he turns over A5s.
If you consider the undersized turn bet once more, you will notice how this enables
me to arrive at a showdown situation without jeopardizing my tournament life. This
is a form of pot control. Sometimes deviating from standard bet sizes and
betting patterns will allow you to manipulate pots to your advantage. In the
early stages of a tournament you should protect yourself against losing a huge pot
and busting out. That may involve a more defensive preflop strategy and/or a less
aggressive postflop strategy than you would expect from a cash game player
Whenever you are drawing you should be aware of your raw pot odds, but you
should also be considering how likely those outs are to be real outs. When you
are drawing to a straight with AK, there will be 2 high cards on the flop which are
likely to have connected with one of your opponents’ hands. A board of QJ3 looks

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okay as you have 4 straight outs plus 6 overcards giving you 10 outs or a 38%
chance of improving. But if you are facing an opponent holding eg AJ or KQ your
draw is considerably weaker and could lead to you losing a huge pot. If there is
also a flush draw on board, your draw is “tainted” by the flush as some of your outs
may not be outs. For these reasons gut shot straight draws with AK(s) often look
much better than they are.
In this example I raise with AKs and am called by the big blind. The flop is 5s Jc
10s: (PS1 and SPR9)

I C-bet a modest amount and am check-raised by a player with a low aggression

factor. Usually, he will have me beaten here and could hold AT or KJ and may even
have spades. My 10 outs are not necessarily all outs. Many good-looking turn or
river cards could be poisoned. So even though I am in position, I decline this draw
by folding my AKs and avoid doing battle with the big stack.
Drawing is fine when it is on your terms, but you must ensure you have both the
right pot odds and the right implied odds. Calling 240 into a pot of 775 might seem
affordable, but when you consider the possible outcomes here, folding is the only
smart choice. As usual, respect the check-raise.
In fact, the check-raise is helpful in some ways as it makes these decisions easier.
Here is a similar spot when my opponent chooses to check-call instead: flop Qd Jc
8s (PS1 and SPR2)

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The dynamics are slightly different in that this is a 6-max MTT and my opponent is
a winning player with good statistics. If this player limp-calls preflop and then
check-calls the flop, he probably has something good and if you look at his
remaining stack size, he is pretty unlikely to fold to a turn-bet. In fact, the turn card
was the Qc, he checked and I concluded that another bet now would commit me to a
poor situation, so I checked behind. This keeps the pot smaller and buys a free
card. The turn card is 2d:

Again my opponent checks, giving me 2 options on the river. Check behind or bluff
all-in. If I go all-in, I will only be called by hands that have me beaten, but I might
force a few hands such as low pocket pairs to fold. If I reasoned that the all-in was

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profitable, I would have made the move on the turn. The 2d on the river has not
changed anything and so I check behind, expecting to lose, but happy to have kept
the pot small.
By accurately assessing your opponent’s hand range and WTSD%, you will be
able to estimate how much fold equity you have (how often he will fold if you
bet again) and then, in turn, you will make more informed decisions on whether
to double-barrel or triple-barrel boards.
Summary:
Understand the power of AK(s), yet also its limitations
Look to play AK postflop; do not seek out preflop all-ins unless short-
stacked
With top pair play AK aggressively with large bet sizes
On missed boards, try to make your opponent(s) fold with a C-bet
On missed boards, consider how much fold equity you have when double-
barrelling
The turn is often a good place to go all-in if you suspect your opponent is
drawing

Part 3 – Playing Mid/Low Pairs:

Foreword: Preflop Raise or Limp?
Before discussing the postflop play of these hands in detail, a brief word on the
preflop rationale of playing mid/low pairs is important for striking the right balance
between attack and defence. Most of the time if a hand is worth entering the pot
with, it is worth entering the pot with a raise, but certain hands lend themselves
well to a more defensive approach. Mid/low pairs belong in this category because
of their wonderful potential to hit a set. These are the facts:

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You will only flop a set 1 in 7.5 times that you see a flop, so if you have no other
way to win a pot other than by flopping a set, the risk-reward ratio needs to stack
up i.e. the effective stack needs to be deep. The deeper-stacked you are, the greater
the benefits of limping.
Your position on the table matters too. It makes more sense to limp from early
position than from late position. Indeed, whatever benefits limping brings, they will
never outweigh the benefits of raising from the cutoff or button in an unopened pot.
If the pot is opened, calling or re-raising is another important preflop decision.
Here is a basic, condensed table outlining the most profitable preflop plays with
mid/low pairs:

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One of the difficulties in choosing between raising and limping with pocket pairs is
that whichever we tend to favour, we perceive to be the “best” play. Make no
mistake, both plays are profitable, but one is invariably more profitable than
the other.
Database analysis has taught me to trust the numbers rather than my own
perception. The deeper-stacked you are, the more likely you are to choose to limp
as opposed to raise, especially with pocket pairs 22-55. If you hold less than
25BB, you can widen some of these ranges, so for example, you could open raise
88+ from any position on the table and also 3bet lighter. You should also try and
avoid limping altogether once you hit around 20BB. At that point, you need to be
choosing raise or fold.
When there are one or more limpers in front of you, you need to assess each
opponent’s limping range before choosing whether to raise or to limp with them.
The chart gives you a solid guide as to where it becomes more profitable to raise.

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When there are one or more raisers in front of you, you will normally want to flat-
call if you have the right odds for set-mining. In any situation where you are sat
with more than 25BB, you should not generally be re-raising with mid/low pairs.
Hitting a set on lower stakes tables is extremely profitable, whereas on higher
stakes tables it is very profitable, but noticeably less so. You should be more
inclined to limp and set mine on lower stakes tables as often your opponents may
stack off with just top pair.
One final point I want to make about these decisions is that the type of tournament
you are playing in can also influence your preflop choice. Hyper turbo and even
turbo players will have few opportunities to set mine as the effective stacks are
rarely deep enough to make it worthwhile. They are not going to want to limp into
many pots at all. MTT players will need to assess their situation in the tournament
and strike the right balance between attack and defence. SNG players will tend to
be more defensive in the early stages, folding regularly (declining the chance to set
mine if it costs too much**) and limping frequently when it is cheap. Then, in the
latter stages, the value in set mining diminishes and they become more inclined to
raise. Remember that your tournament situation has a big influence on whether
you should choose an aggressive or a defensive option.
** “Too much” would normally be more than 7.5% of the effective stack or 15
times your preflop investment. The precise numbers are dependent on your
position, the quality of your pocket pair, the number of active opponents and your
tournament situation.
Summary:
Limping is suitable in deep-stacked situations
Raising is suitable from late position
Try not to rely on your perception of which option is more profitable;
trust the numbers
Try and avoid limping at less than 20BB
Set mining works best on lower stakes tables
In tournaments, assess your tournament situation
Chapter 7: Playing a Set on a Dry Board
I am going to spend 3 chapters discussing how to play a set, divided up by the
texture of the flop, as it is the texture of the flop rather than any other single
factor, which determines how fast or slowly you should play your set.
Other factors are going to come into play, including the preflop betting, the
number of opponents on the flop and your relative position. Interestingly, the
quality of your set (top set, second set or bottom set) has no bearing on how you

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play it, except perhaps in super deep-stacked situations.
Most players believe they play sets well postflop because everyone makes good
profit from them, but remember, you are looking to maximise your profit by
choosing the most profitable actions.
When considering SPR, you will almost always be committed to any flopped set as
illustrated below:
SPR (Stack to Pot Relative Risk Set any board type -
Ratio) Committed?
0-3 Very low Yes
4-6 Low Yes
7-10 Medium Yes
11-14 High Yes
15+ Very high 90% (caution very wet
flops)

Dry boards pose very few risks to a player holding a set. There are very few
ways of being overtaken in the hand and it would be extremely rare that you would
ever consider folding. Most of your thoughts should be about how to extract chips
from your opponent(s). Often that is going to involve a certain degree of slow-
playing.
Take a look at this example of a dry flop with a low high card: I have limped from
the hijack with 55 early in a 6-max MTT and seen a 4-handed flop of Td 5c 2h
(PS1, PS3 and SPR13)

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After the blinds check this dry board, I have to decide whether it is worth betting
out and risking that they all fold, or checking and risking giving a free card. The key
question that I recommend asking in this spot is: how likely are my opponents to
have connected with this flop? This is one of those questions on my list in the
preface of this book. The answer to the question is not too difficult, but if you
approach this decision without asking that question, you risk making a sub-optimum
choice.
In this case, it is quite unlikely that any of your opponents have hit this flop. The
most likely opponent to invest chips in this pot is the one holding top pair. In
addition, there are a few straight draws on this board and hands such as 34 or A4
pose a small, but significant risk. Overall, though, the risk factor is small and you
ought to be willing to flirt with some danger when holding two pair, or a set,
against a drawing hand, since your hand can also improve to a full house or 4 of a
kind.
The fact that I have 3 opponents in this pot both increases the risk factor of someone
holding a drawing hand and also increases the chances that one of them has top pair
now or might hit top pair on the turn. I want to keep them all involved and show
them a turn card which might be golden. I want to disguise the strength of my hand a
little longer and hope to get one or more of my opponents taking the lead in the
hand.
The button sees three checks in front of him and makes what is probably a bluff of
half the pot, figuring he can sometimes make us all fold. The small blind calls, big
blind folds and I just call. The last thing I want to do here is scare away my
opponents when I am likely to be well ahead. Let them catch up a bit and then get
busy.

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So the turn card (8s) is unfortunately not a high card, reducing the likelihood of my
being able to win a massive pot. I am out of position against the button, so there is
some risk in checking to him for a second time as there is no guarantee that he will
not check behind. Nevertheless, making a surprise bet on the turn on this board is
going to make both opponents fold a high percentage of the time (C/XC/B). Neither
opponent has shown any real indication of strength in this hand, so the risk/reward
ratio of checking a second time still stacks up in my favour. Most of the time the
button will bet again, allowing me the opportunity to check-raise. Some of the time
he will check behind and I gift both players the river card. That river card might
occasionally give an opponent a straight, but it may also give them top pair or even
2 pair. Good things are going to happen more often than bad things are going to
happen. I will also have the advantage of being able to judge what might have
happened on the river. Some cards are going to be fantastic eg K or 2, whereas
other cards are going to carry more risk eg 6. So I can react appropriately on the
river, limiting any potential damage and maximising profit.
The button did bet again and I have the choice of check-calling or check-raising. In
situations like this one, you should nearly always choose check-raise as you need to
think about building up the size of the pot. Playing out of position makes it difficult
to extract value from your hand on the river, so you need to take over the betting on
the flop or turn. In this case, I raised pot size to 450 chips and my opponent folded.
The betting pattern that I use in this hand is very often a winning strategy when you
begin by defending a hand preflop. I limp preflop, check-call the flop and then
check-raise the turn (C/XC/XR).
In fact, playing a little bit defensively on dry boards where you have hit a set is
generally the most profitable approach. Although I am strictly the preflop

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“aggressor” in this pot as the first person to bet voluntarily (note the postflop
scenarios here are PS1 and PS3), I only limped in, making a postflop check more
natural than had I been declining to make a C-bet.
What happens when I am the preflop raiser though? In this hand I raise from the SB
with 66 and am called by a regular with decent statistics: the flop is Ah 6c 2d (PS3
and SPR11)

There are 2 strong reasons why I C-bet this flop.

First, my opponent is expecting a C-bet at a perfect board for the raiser and I do not
wish to alert him to my strength by doing something out of the ordinary. He may
hold an ace, but if I check-call or check-raise, he is going to be put on red alert and
may opt to check down a hand as strong as A8o. After all, he will be hesitant to
play in a big pot with the big stack of this SNG.
The best way to extract value here is to force him to call my bets. I think my
opponent’s situation is very black and white: either he has an ace or he does not.
If he has an ace I am going to make some chips; if he does not have an ace, I am
unlikely to win anything. Against strong opponents, if you do something
unexpected it will ring an alarm bell.
Second, in the previous example, part of the rationale for defending was hoping for
my opponents’ hands to improve on the turn or river, but there are no overcards that
can hit an ace high board, so in this example very few good things can happen by
allowing a cheap turn card.
Notice, also, as an extension of the above logic, that my C-bet size is large.
Normally on a dry board, 40%-50% of the pot would be enough, but what I tend to

99
do when I have my mind set on winning a big pot is to think about what bet size
my opponent is likely to call. Remember this is a black and white moment – either
he already has the poisoned ace or he does not. If you think about it, your bet size
here will not influence whether he calls or not, so why not choose a large size (try
not to go over the pot size though, as that rings alarm bells too and you may lose
action).
If my opponent were weaker, I might consider checking the flop as weak opponents
sometimes throw chips into pots when they should not and might mistake my check-
call for weakness.
My opponent did call indicating that he must have an ace, the turn was 5c and he
flat-called my turn bet. The river was Js:

On the river, my opponent must think there is a strong likelihood I have him beaten.
I am unlikely to bet all 4 streets without a strong hand, so I need to choose a bet
size that prices him in to calling. I am fairly confident he has Ax with only top pair
as he probably would have raised on the turn if he had 2 pair.
There is a very real danger that he may fold on the river if I bet too much. I bet 700
into a pot of 1240 ensuring that he would be left with a playable stack and giving
him pot odds of 2.77:1 to call. If he thinks he can win the hand 27% of the time,
then he should call – and call he does. Against a weaker player I would have
attempted to extract more chips with larger turn and river bets.
Note that this example of continuous postflop betting at a dry board is an exception
rather than the rule. Most of the time, choosing a passive option, probably on the
flop, is going to yield more profit. Remember that flopping a set is a potential “No
C-bet” category and a dry board presents few dangers.

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Tend to give one free or cheap card on the flop and then get busy on the turn.
This is usually easy to achieve when you are sat in position and more problematic
when out of position. You should only ever give one cheap card, so if there is no
action by the turn, you still need to bet. If you wind up winning a very small pot, do
not assume you played it incorrectly.
Summary:
Assess the texture of the flop, preflop betting, number of opponents and
your position
Dry boards pose very few risks to a player holding a set
A degree of slow-playing is normal, especially on the flop
Against strong opponents, if you do something unexpected it will ring an
alarm bell
Not C-betting is sometimes appropriate
Tend to give one free or cheap card on the flop and then get busy on the
turn
Chapter 8: Playing a Set on an Average Board
Much of the logic behind the decision-making in this chapter is going to follow on
from the previous chapter, but the danger level in slow-playing starts to spike due
to potential flush draws or straight draws. That does not mean that you should never
slow play a set when there are some dangers around, but it does mean that you
should be less inclined to.
Previously I stated that you should be more willing to flirt with some danger when
you hold two pair or a set against a drawing hand. There are 2 main reasons for
this. First, the raw odds of you winning the hand are going to be something around
75%, much higher than your opponent will suspect. Second, the implied odds are
also in your favour. Sometimes both hands improve and you win a huge pot with a
full house against a flush. On later streets, you can assess the danger level and
control the pot accordingly.
So whilst you should be less inclined to slow-play a set on a board which poses a
few dangers, remember that your overall need to protect your hand is still
relatively low. Indeed, most of the time your opponent(s) will not be drawing and
you still want to extract maximum value from your hand. If slow-playing is your
best option, go for it.

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Here I have called a small raise preflop for set value and have seen a flop of 5h
10s 3h (PS6, PS4 and SPR7). The small blind is also involved and surprises us
with a donk-bet of almost the pot. Remember that donk-bets of this nature are often
top pair. He may also have a good draw, but top pair is the most likely hand for him
to hold. If he does have a flush draw, say with 2 overcards, he will suspect he has a
54% chance of winning, when in fact his odds are only 27%. So most of the time he
will hold top pair and be drawing almost dead and some of the time he will have
around a 27% chance of winning. Either way, there is no urgency here for me to
raise. I am in position against him (PS5), so I can wait until the turn to show
aggression.
In addition, if I only call, the initial raiser sat on the cutoff may decide to call too,
which might increase the chances of winning a huge pot against him. If I raise now,
I might make him fold when I could be extracting more value by just calling. It is
true that both players could be drawing and that isolating to one opponent is often
your primary objective, but the potential reward for not raising outweighs the risk
involved in gambling against 2 hands.
The initial raiser is holding JJ and is committed to his overpair, so if I raise here,
he will re-raise and give the small blind the opportunity to fold. Instead, after I flat-
call, the cutoff raises to 400 and the small blind, even though he should fold, feels
obliged to call the bet and he, too, gets committed to the hand.
Still at the flop stage, I am now able to raise over both their bets, forcing the all-in
showdown and although I am nervous of drawing hands or better sets, this is likely
to be an extremely good gamble for me and so it proved:

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Careful analysis of boards such as this which are neither wet nor dry shows that
whenever your opponent(s) are aggressive, there is rarely a need for you to raise
back urgently. Instead you can often choose to flat-call at the flop stage and delay
your aggression until later in the hand.
A lot depends on exactly how much danger exists and that is not always easy to
quantify. In the following situation, the danger level is too high for me to just flat-
call:

Preflop I opened with a small raise, which the small blind minimum raised back
and 3 players called seeing a flop of 7c Js Kc (PS4, PS6, PS6 and SPR2.5)). So the
postflop bet of 140 into a pot of 500 is a C-bet not a donk-bet. As such, his small

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C-bet does not tell me much about his hand, but I can assume he has a top 12% hand
by looking at his 3bet statistic.
The problem I have is that his bet is not very large and anyone with any sort of
draw will be priced in to calling if I fail to raise. I have 3 opponents and the board
is, in truth, fairly wet. The types of hands that will be in the pot will have regularly
connected with this board. If even one player is drawing, I need to increase the
price for that player to call and see the turn card. My raise to 300 achieves a good
balance in that I tempt players on draws into calling (remember their odds are not
as good as they might suspect) and keep anyone holding just top pair interested.

The small blind called the raise and fearlessly led out at the turn card. At this point
he is clearly committed and it makes sense for me to put the chips in on the turn
rather than waiting for the river card. He called and showed KQo.
Take a look at this table of reasons for either aggression or slow play on the flop:
Reasons for Slow-Playing Reasons for Aggression
Preflop Defender Preflop Raiser/Re-raiser
Dry board / Low drawing danger Wet board / High drawing danger
1 opponent Multiple Opponents / Need to isolate
In position – easier to build pot later Out of Position – harder to build pot
later
No high card High Card(s), especially an A
Opponent(s) aggressive Opponent(s) defensive
Early in an SNG – cautious for ICM No ICM factors – caution unnecessary
reasons

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 Short-stacked – no need to build up pot Deep-stacked – need to build up pot
Weak opponent (can deceive) Strong Opponent (cannot deceive by
slow play)

These are the driving factors behind the decision-making. You should want to
play the hand slowly on the flop if possible, but if there are too many reasons for
being aggressive, that is the road you must take. All of these factors will spring into
your mind when assessing the flop if you drill through those postflop questions as a
part of your standard routine.
I have not shown examples of what to do when there is no betting at the flop, but
whenever that takes place, regardless of how useless the turn card looks (you
generally want to see an ace or a high card), you must almost always make a strong
bet at the turn and be content to win a small pot.
Similarly, I have not shown examples of what to do when an opponent shoves all-in
on the flop as your commitment level ought to be obvious. Even on a wet board,
you must always call.
Summary:
Remember that your overall need to protect your hand is still relatively
low
When your opponent(s) are aggressive, there is rarely a need for you to
raise back urgently
Often flat-call at the flop stage and delay your aggression until later in
the hand
As always, look to get busy on the turn
Chapter 9: Playing a Set on a Wet Board
These are difficult flops to play as both your commitment level and the danger level
are high. Many players respond to this dilemma by overbetting the pot (ie betting
more chips than the pot size or going all-in prematurely) and whilst this is not a
particularly bad solution, it is not always the most profitable play.
Indeed, although you should tend to play these flops aggressively, there are
certainly times when playing them slower is more profitable. Very wet boards stand
out as being very dangerous, but danger is always relative and it is your job to
gauge that danger level in a pragmatic and mathematical way. Most of the time your
opponents will not have flopped a flush or a straight and your percentage chance of
winning the hand will still be extremely good. And even when your opponents
have flopped a flush or a straight, you will still have a 35% chance of winning.
Unless you are super deep-stacked, these situations are hardly worth worrying

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about.
On level 1 of a 6-max SNG, I raise from the hijack with 99 and am called by the
cutoff and big blind. The flop is Qs 9s 6s: (PS3, PS1 and SPR8)

After the big blind checks, it should be fairly obvious that I need to C-bet. Go down
the list of reasons on the table in the previous chapter and almost everything is
pointing towards aggression. So I make a strong bet, but I resist the temptation to
bet 250 chips or a bet size which is going to scare away opponents. A normal bet
of around 70% of the pot size is usually appropriate on a wet board and that
holds true here. Try not to be too fearful of a spade falling on the turn.
The big blind called my C-bet and the 3c came on the turn. My opponent is likely to
be holding top pair or a high spade. I want to bet enough to protect my hand against
a spade coming on the river, yet not so much that I scare away my opponent.
Something around 70% of the pot once again is a good guide, though 50% is also
enough. You want to comfortably take away his pot odds for calling, whilst still
tempting him in.
If a spade comes on the river and he leads out with a large bet, you will be able to
fold. If he tries to check-raise, it will fail as you will check behind him. If the river
does not bring a spade, you can value bet once more as though your opponent has
Qx.
Playing this hand with a normal level of aggression makes more sense than playing
it too aggressively. This way you stay in control, gather information about your
opponents’ hands and give yourself more options on future streets.
In fact, the river brought the magic card 3s:

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My opponent led out with a bet that I could fold to if I had not just made a full
house. Clearly I go all-in, he calls and shows As2c.
On the flop, he has a potential 12 outs or a 45% chance of improving, but only 8 of
them are real outs, and his equity is just 27%. On the turn, he might think he has a
25% chance of improving, but his winning chances are just 17%. Whenever you are
playing with a set against a drawing hand, you ought to be aware of these
mathematical facts and they should encourage you to invite action, rather than
looking to shut down the hand early.
Outs 1 Card To Come 1 Card To Come 2 Cards To Come
(flop) (turn) (flop)

1 2.1% 2.2% 4.3%

2 4.3% 4.3% 8.4%
3 6.4% 6.5% 12.5%
4 8.5% 8.7% 16.5%
5 10.6% 10.9% 20.4%
6 12.8% 13.0% 24.1%
7 14.9% 15.2% 27.8%
8 17.0% 17.4% 31.5%
9 19.1% 19.6% 35.0%
10 21.3% 21.7% 38.4%
11 23.4% 23.9% 41.7%

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 12 25.5% 26.1% 45.0%
13 27.7% 28.3% 48.1%
14 29.8% 30.4% 51.2%
15 31.9% 32.6% 54.1%
16 34.0% 34.8% 57.0%
17 36.2% 37.0% 59.8%
18 38.3% 39.1% 62.4%
19 40.4% 41.3% 65.0%
20 42.6% 43.5% 67.5%
21 44.7% 45.7% 69.9%
22 46.8% 47.8% 72.2%

When you are playing these situations out of position, it should be an extra
incentive to lead out with a bet at the flop, even if that bet is a donk-bet or an
unexpected bet. It is normal to lead out with a bet at the flop on wet boards. If
you are certain an opponent is going to C-bet, you might risk a check-call or check-
raise as an alternative.
I am now going to examine some spots when you could choose to deviate from that
strategy.
Most of the time when you see the flop you will have invested more than 4% of the
effective stack preflop and in these situations it is particularly important that you do
lead out, even if it feels unnatural (your first postflop bet will not mirror your
preflop bet).
In the following example, though, I have not much more than 1% of my stack
invested preflop, which qualifies as a super deep-stacked situation. It is also an
SNG in which I am wary of playing a dangerously big pot on level 1.
Many of you may look at this board and feel that a lead-out bet is the right play and,
in fact, leading out does offer slightly more +EV. It will certainly increase the
number of times you win the pot by reducing the number of opponents who see the
turn card.
Although playing out of position with a set is generally a good reason for playing
aggressively, on very wet boards aggression also increases the chance that you
might lose a huge pot. I elect to check in this situation, choosing not to build up the
pot out of position. In an MTT or later in an SNG I would recommend making a bet,
though, as the tournament situation is no longer calling for ultra-cautious play.

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I completed the small blind with 22 to see a 4-handed flop of 2d 6d 5d (PS6 PS6
PS6 and SPR 23)

In most cases, one of the players will bet at the flop and I can then choose check-
call or check-raise as I see fit, but this time all players checked the flop and Ac
came on the turn. As long as no-one is slow-playing a flush, this is one of the best
cards that could have arrived for me.
I want to extract money from the player with the ace, so I choose a bet size that is
likely to maximise my profit and protect myself against the diamond draw. If the
turn card had been unfriendly, I would still have led out with a bet, but I would
have made it a more modest amount. On this occasion all 3 opponents folded and I
had to be content with winning a small pot.
Similar logic applies to wet boards with possible made straights and all kinds of
straight draws. The main difference is that the danger level is often much lower,
especially against one opponent. A board with three of the same suit is always
frightening because there is almost a 50% chance that each opponent will have at
least a flush draw. A board with 3 connected cards, however, will be dangerous if
the cards are JQK, but far less dangerous if they are 456. Much depends, of course,
on your opponents’ ranges.
In this example from a 6-max hyper turbo I call a raise preflop from the big blind
with 66 and see the flop 4-handed. 6c 3c 4s: (PS4, PS6, PS6 and SPR2)

109
There is a donk-bet from the loose small blind, so I have to assess whether to raise
or just call. I would have preferred the bet to have been slightly more, so I could
call and still price out anyone on the flush draw, but good things are more likely to
happen than bad things and inviting the other players in to the action could outweigh
the risks. Remember that anyone drawing here will not be as strong as they
perceive. If I were deeper-stacked, the risk of just calling would outweigh the
benefits and I would be more desperate to isolate to one opponent by choosing to
raise.
If the board had 3 connected high cards, there would be no thought of just calling. I
would have to raise as the risk that someone had a straight draw would be huge, but
on this board consider the risk for a moment. The donk-bet could be a drawing
hand, but the other 2 players are playing sensible ranges and are very unlikely to be
holding any kind of straight draw. Actually, the risk of playing against drawing
hands here is not as massive as it might first appear. As a result I choose to call and
both the UTG player and the button fold:

110
If a 5, 2 or 7 comes on the turn, my gamble here can backfire, but as I keep saying,
when you are playing with a set, good things are more likely to happen than bad
things and that is why you should be more willing to run the gauntlet, especially in
low SPR spots. Any high card could be golden.
The 3s is more like a platinum card that completes a full house and my job now is
to entice my opponent in to seeing the river card and hoping to get his commitment.
After he checks, I should probably bet a bit more than 80 chips, but I want to give
the impression that I still might fold in the hand, so as to give him some bluffing
options either now or on the river. Betting is preferable to checking as I can lure my
opponent in to a committed state on the river. As it happens he held A3 and check-
raised all in, the river card was Td and I won a big pot.
The purpose for slow-playing early in an SNG is to avoid losing a huge pot in a
dangerous situation. It is not strictly “correct” play. The purpose for slow-playing
in a short-stacked situation is to get as much action as possible when the
risk/reward ratio stacks up.
To wrap-up these 3 chapters, I would like to consider our flop actions in the context
of our 6 postflop betting situations and give some general advice:
Having hit a set:
PS1: Preflop Aggressor in Position, Defender Checks
You are usually going to make a C-bet in this spot. The only time you might decide
not to C-bet is when you have just one opponent, a very dry board, an aggressive,
poor opponent and perhaps no high card. You could then check behind and play it
as a Category 2 “No C-bet” hand, hoping for action on the turn.

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PS2: Preflop Aggressor in Position facing a donk-bet
On dry boards, calling is standard. On wet boards, raising might be preferable. If
the donk-bet is less than 50% of the pot, you should normally choose to raise,
especially if the board is not dry or there are multiple opponents. If the donk-bet is
more than 50% of the pot, calling may be more profitable as you can use your
position to raise on the turn instead.
3: Preflop Raiser out of position
You are usually going to make a C-bet in this spot. If the flop is dry or you have an
aggressive opponent and perhaps no high card, you can choose to check-call or
check-raise as an alternative.
4: Preflop Defender in position, facing a C-bet
The ideal response is normally going to be to call, but there will often be times
when it is necessary to raise, especially if the C-bet size is small or the board is
wet. Look at all the reasons for slow-playing and all the reasons for raising and
choose appropriately.
5: Preflop Defender, in position, opponent checks
This is an awkward spot and you should think about your opponent’s profile
carefully and assess what his declining to C-bet means. Most times you will have to
make a bet. If the flop is very dry and there is no high card, you can sometimes
choose to check behind instead.
6: Preflop Defender, out of position
This is a common scenario and you are most often going to start with a check,
anticipating a bet from elsewhere on the table and hoping to be able to check-call
or check-raise. Tend to favour the check-raise over the check-call if you need to
build up the pot. On wet boards or with multiple opponents you should consider
leading out, even if that means donk-betting.
Summary:
Against a made flush or straight, you will still have a 35% chance of
winning
You should tend to play these flops aggressively
It is normal to lead out with a bet at the flop on wet boards
Monotone boards are more dangerous than 3 connected cards
Learn the table below
Reasons for Slow-Playing Reasons for Aggression
Preflop Defender Preflop Raiser/Re-raiser

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 Dry board / Low drawing danger Wet board / High drawing danger
1 opponent Multiple Opponents / Need to isolate
In position – easier to build pot later Out of Position – harder to build pot
later
No high card High Card(s), especially an A
Opponent(s) aggressive Opponent(s) defensive
Early in an SNG – cautious for ICM Big stack, ICM in your favour
reasons
Short-stacked – no need to build up pot Deep-stacked – need to build up pot
Weak opponent (can deceive) Strong Opponent (cannot deceive by
slow play)

Chapter 10: Flopping a Full House or 4 of a kind (no trips on

board)
These flops are rare and not difficult to play. You are never going to consider
folding as an option, so the entire postflop experience is about how to get your
opponents’ chips into the middle.
SPR (Stack to Pot Relative Risk Full House or 4 of a
Ratio) kind – Committed?
0-3 Very low Yes
4-6 Low Yes
7-10 Medium Yes
11-14 High Yes
15+ Very high Yes

The most common mistake players make on these boards is betting too much at the
flop stage and losing action from players who may pick up a draw on the turn.
There is always a balance between wanting to build up the size of the pot and not
wanting to scare away opponents, but in No Limit Hold’em the pot can be maxed
out on any street, so try and be patient with your betting.
The main problem facing you is that you have connected so well with the flop that
your opponents are very unlikely to have improved at all, so unless they are certain
to be holding premium hands already (which is sometimes the case, but not often),
you are going to struggle to get the action you want. The risk in presenting your
opponent(s) with a free or cheap turn card is extremely small and the potential
reward is huge. So for that reason you ought normally to follow my advice from the
previous chapter: tend to give one free or cheap card and then get busy on the

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turn.
Earlier I discussed potential “No C-bet” categories and the first category was
“Monster Flops”. If you flop a full house or 4 of a kind, you ought to strongly
consider not making a standard continuation bet. It is true that against good
opponents this may ring an alarm bell, particularly if you have a high C-bet
percentage, but often this is a risk worth taking. Even a strong player whose
alarm bell is ringing will struggle to fold if they make a straight or a flush later
in the hand.
Here, I am the preflop raiser in position holding 88 and am called by the big blind.
The flop is 8c 3s 8s (PS1 and SPR13) giving me 4 of a kind and a scenario that is
usually too good to make chips from. I have 2 possibilities to make a significant
pot. Either my opponent bluffs at me or I give him every opportunity of connecting
with the turn or river and hope to extract chips later on. So after my opponent
checks the flop, I check behind instead of C-betting. A failure to C-bet is often
perceived by opponents as weakness and this can help to lure them into the
hand. The turn is the 9d:

This time my opponent leads out at the turn. I do not expect my opponent to have
connected with the 9, nor do I think it is likely he has a strong draw, so although
raising would be standard play at this stage in order to build up the pot, I decide
instead to delay any aggression until the river. If my opponent had checked the flop,
I would have made the same bet he did, but whenever you are holding a monster
hand and your opponent leads into you, you should consider flat-calling as it
encourages your opponent to keep betting on future streets. The river is 7d and he
made another small bet:

114
At this point, I think my opponent probably just has 2 overcards, but occasionally
may have made a full house. Although the 7d does complete a few straights, none of
them are very likely and I would have preferred an ace or king on the river.
Clearly I need to raise with the nut hand, so I need to consider my raise size.
Whenever I am in this situation I like to compare the profitability of 2 contrasting
bet sizes in order to make my decision. Here I have estimated how likely my
opponent is to call an all-in against a normal-looking bet.
Bet size (percentage of Percentage of Calls Average Chips Won
pot) (estimated)
ALL IN 1728 chips 15% 244
(462%)
374 chips (100%) 50% 137

The final column represents the mean number of chips I would win on the river and
is calculated by multiplying the bet size by the estimated percentage of calls. Even
with a very conservative estimate of just 15% calls for an all-in, this outperforms a
pot-sized bet by a long distance.
Often when you are holding a very strong hand on the river it is more
profitable to go all-in than to make a more natural-looking bet. Indeed, betting
on the river is very different from betting on other streets in that there is (usually)
no future betting. There is nothing wrong with huge overbets on the river.
Against a player holding 33, if I raise to 374 chips, he could then re-raise, allowing
me another chance to go all-in, but if an opponent is that strong, it does not usually
matter how you play the hand, you will almost always end up all-in at some stage

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(though some very cautious players will occasionally only flat-call with weak full
houses). Really you should be assessing your opponent’s range minus his potential
monster hands. In this example hand, you should consider how often he holds a
pocket pair, a total bluff, A9, a good ace, JT and perhaps 56 and then how likely he
is to call the 2 bet sizes. It is a hard calculation and when you are at the table you
might be unable to do this. When in doubt go for the maximum.
In this hand, my opponent calls the all-in and shows AKo. In truth, it is a poor call,
but he has picked up on my weak play on the flop and turn and considered my river
bet to be a likely bluff. Showing weakness at the flop stage and not making that C-
bet has this hidden benefit later in the hand. If my opponent assesses my likely
hands here, I cannot really be expected to hold a pocket pair (except 88 or 33) or to
have connected with this board. In that line of reasoning, his call makes a lot more
sense.
In this next example hand, I am playing with some loose players in a 6-max SNG on
level 1 and after the cutoff limps preflop, I choose to limp too holding 66 and we
see the flop 8s 6c 8d with all 4 players. The small blind bets the minimum on the
flop, the big blind and cutoff both call and instead of raising to build up the pot, I
decide to just flat-call in PS4 and PS4. The turn is 4d:

Once again the weak small blind player leads with a minimum bet and the big blind
makes a pot-sized raise, which really does indicate strength here. I strongly suspect
he is holding an 8 as his aggression factor is low and he would most likely call
with just a straight draw. If I flat-call against a player holding an 8, he will have 5
outs on the river and is guaranteed to get all my chips if he hits. In addition, I could
do with building up the pot (which avoids the dilemma of having to overbet the

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river as in the previous example). On the other hand, I do not wish to lose action
from a player with a drawing hand. I have 2 good reasons for raising and one good
reason for flat-calling. What makes this situation much different from the previous
example is that I believe the big blind has a strong hand. Raising is the right play.
The small blind folds, the big blind calls, the river is 3c and the big blind checks:

Perhaps the villain holds a hand like 87. I am disappointed that he did not shove
all-in on the turn and has now checked the river. He may also have had two
diamonds and was semi-bluffing the turn card. My decision on the river is fairly
straightforward. There is no sense in betting smaller than an all-in as my bet size is
unlikely to have a dramatic effect on his likelihood to call. He is also the big stack
and can afford the call, which is an additional reason for going for the maximum.
In fact, he held 57 and played the turn and river rather too cautiously. I was
rewarded for giving one free card and then getting busy on the turn. Now if I had
known his cards, I surely could have got the betting going at the flop stage, but
remember, I had 2 opponents who probably had nothing at all, so the aim is to give
them one extra card to connect with before throwing chips into the middle.
In the next example the full house I hold is slightly stronger than in the previous
hand in that I hold the higher card on the board and the pair on the board is lower.
In fact this makes very little difference as to how you should play the hand, except
that you should recognise a lower level of danger when you hold the high card. The
reason the danger level is lower is that the hand can be less easily overtaken,
though in either case the danger level is extremely low.
I have called a raise with 99 from the small blind early in an SNG and flopped 5d
5c 9s: (PS6, PS6 and SPR6.5) My 2 opponents have checked behind me on the flop

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and the turn card is 10c:

In situations like this, if an opponent happens to hold A5, my hand would still win
if an ace came down whereas I would lose to A8 if an ace hit turn or river in the
previous example.
When no betting takes place on the flop and you are sat out of position as I am here,
you have no choice but to lead out at the turn card. You simply cannot check two
streets as the pot is not building and your opponents are showing no signs of putting
in chips. The Tc is not really the card I wanted to see on the turn, but it does bring
about possible draws and it is an overcard that my opponents might have hit. I bet
just over half the pot, which will often be greeted by folds, but is nevertheless the
smart play here.

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My bet was called by the hijack and raised by the button and I ended up winning a
big pot against A5. There is no escape for the button here, but by slow-playing the
flop, both of us are maximising our chances of making some chips from players
who hit the turn or river card.
I hold 99 again in the next example and call a min-raise preflop to see a flop of Jd
9h Jc (PS6 and SPR3) This time the button makes a C-bet of half the pot and I
decide to check-call rather than check-raise. Check-raising is certainly a good
alternative when playing out of position, but you do risk losing an opponent who
has missed the board completely. The turn is Td:

This turn card is much better as it is highly likely my opponent has some piece of

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this. I now have to make the choice between risking a check-raise or making a
surprise bet out of position on the turn. I certainly do not want him to check behind
and lose the opportunity of building a big pot, but at the same time I would love to
disguise my strength just a little longer in order to get my opponent more committed
to the pot. A surprise bet of half the pot may well just get called, so one of the
reasons I prefer trying to check-raise is that (when it works) it does build up the pot
sufficiently so that an all-in can follow on the river.
In these spots consider how likely your opponent is to bet again on the turn. I
decided it was likely enough to justify trying the check-raise (C/XC/XR), but a
surprise bet (C/XC/B) would also be acceptable here. My opponent made an
undersized turn C-bet, which I raised to 300 and he called. The river was 9c, which
made me 4 of a kind, but was far from my ideal river card as it would most likely
scare away the villain.
Uncertain what he was holding or how likely he was to call, I launched in the
remaining 775 (effective 747) and was called by QTo. He needed a 31% chance of
winning to justify a call on the river, so although it was a poor call, it was by no
means outrageous. My check-raise on the turn was successful in gaining his
commitment to the hand and making it easier to get all the chips in on the river.
Very occasionally things will go wrong when playing a full house, but as long as
you are not giving 2 cheap cards away, it will not be your fault. As with many
poker situations, you have to accept that sometimes the best play gets a bad result
and a poor play can get a good result.
In this next hand, I call a raise preflop with 99 and flop 9h Qs Qc (PS6 PS6 and
SPR7.5). The hijack makes a C-bet which is then raised by the button and I sense a
large pot:

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In this situation, it seems as though one or both of my opponents has a queen and is
bound to end up all-in. I could re-raise and force the issue now, but in the event that
someone is bluffing or has a hand such as KJ, I will just lose the additional action.
It is far more profitable to simply flat-call and allow one or both players to throw
their chips at me.
The hijack folded and the turn was 6d. At this moment, I am still the defender in a
pot which is already fairly large. If the button is strong he will go all-in here and if
he is weak he might bluff again. In both scenarios it makes sense for me to check
and wait for his bet. If he has Qx and is concerned about his kicker, he might
possibly check behind and gain a free card, but I can always push all-in on the river
and force a decision. Checking is a risk, but it is a small one and worth it.
On this occasion though, the button did check behind and the river was a disastrous
card. The 6h completes a better full house for the player holding a queen:

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Now I am in an awkward spot and sub-consciously it is very easy to become
negative and start blaming yourself in these situations, when in fact, the passive
plays have been entirely logical. You must stay calm and continue to think logically.
Either the villain holds a queen or he does not. If he has a queen, I certainly don’t
want to bet into him. If he does not have a queen, what is he holding? Big pocket
pairs seem unlikely since he did not re-raise preflop. A9 or TT are perhaps
possible, but just as likely here are hands such as KJ, KT or JT as well as bunch of
other bluffing hands. I am not going to get called by many hands which I have
beaten here as if I bet, he ought to be afraid that I have a queen. So if he does not
hold a queen, it makes more sense for me to check and try and catch a bluff.
That makes my decision on the river a lot easier. I can check-call and hope for the
best. This is not always the best way of playing poker, but it is not uncommon that
playing the river out of position requires this train of thought and course of action.
My opponent has bluffed at the flop and been called. He thinks about why I would
only call his flop raise and yet fail to bet at turn or river. He deduces I cannot hold
a queen and bluffs all his chips away with K8s.
My check-call is unpleasant, but necessary, as I consider he will be bluffing more
often than he will be holding the queen and my pot odds are too good to consider
folding. So even with a terrible river card, I am able to extract more chips through
passive play in this situation than through active bets.
Remember when you flop a monster hand holding a pocket pair, you will very
frequently end up winning a small pot. This is normal. To play them as profitably as
you can, try and keep as many opponents involved as possible until the turn card,
stay passive for as long as is reasonable and go for the jugular on the river.

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Summary:
Tend to give one free or cheap card and then get busy on the turn
Consider not C-betting when you are the preflop raiser
Not C-betting can be perceived as weakness (especially by poor
opponents)
Play passively for as long as is reasonable
Do not check two streets if there has been no postflop betting
Consider betting the maximum on the river even if the pot is small

Part 4: Playing Mid/Low Pairs and missing the flop

Chapter 11: Full House (Pocket Pair and Trips on board)
This is not a common situation and players are sometimes guilty of overplaying this
flop. You ought to consider these questions carefully: “How likely am I to be
ahead?” and “How likely am I to be ahead at showdown?” The answers to these
questions will depend largely on the perceived ranges of your opponents’ hands,
but usually these are positive situations.
The risk that an opponent has made 4 of a kind is going to be small on a board of
333, but larger on a board of KKK. In addition, there is a significant risk of the turn
and river pairing, which, if higher than your cards, would render your hand
redundant as the board would beat your hand.
Nevertheless, despite these risks, you will usually be in a good situation on this
type of flop and should tend to play them with watchful aggression. If you are the
preflop raiser, you should proceed with a standard C-bet and if you are defending
the hand preflop, you should choose between leading out and going for a check-call
or check-raise.
Most opponents are going to fold frequently on these flops and you will tend to win
small pots, but sometimes aggressive players will target boards like these to try a
bluff-raise. If you are faced by a raise, ensure you profile your opponent carefully
(if playing online use your HUD data) and respond rationally. The most common
hand you will lose a huge pot to will be a pocket pair larger than yours, so be on
the look-out for an opponent who may also hold a pocket pair. The quality of your
own pocket pair might determine whether or not you choose to gamble against an
opponent showing aggression.
Here I raise from the cutoff with TT and am called by the big blind. I C-bet 75% of
the pot and my opponent check-raises all-in:

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(board 5c 5s 5d, PS1 and SPR7.5)
Whenever you are considering calling an all-in, you should start by considering
your opponent’s range. In this case, 22 through to JJ are the most likely candidates
for this sort of move. Sometimes a player may do this with 2 overcards, but usually
it will be a pocket pair. After 64 hands, I have never seen this player 3-bet preflop
and he seems slightly loose-passive, so large pocket pairs are possible, but most
players would not go all-in with AA or KK here.
Next, I should estimate my equity and EV: I think my hand will win around 70% of
the time against his range and I only need to win 41% to justify calling (1130 chips
to win 1625) with +EV. If I held 66 in this spot, my equity would drop to below
50% and I would have a more difficult decision.
This decision will look very straightforward to most of you, but try to go through
this disciplined thought process to keep you thinking the right way. If you slip into
auto-pilot and call without really thinking this through, you might find yourself on
auto-pilot on trickier decisions and run the risk of making mistakes. On this
occasion my opponent showed TT as well and we split the pot.
In this hand I was committed to a pot with an SPR of 7.5. The zone of uncertainty on
these flops is huge as your commitment level is so dependent on the strength of your
pocket pair and the range of your opponent:
SPR (Stack to Pot Relative Risk Full House Trips on
Ratio) Board – Committed?
0-3 Very low Yes
4-6 Low 85%

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 7-10 Medium Situational
11-14 High Situational
15+ Very high Situational

In multi-way pots, you should make a reasonable attempt to isolate to one opponent
at the flop stage. This means making an aggressive bet (in all 6 postflop scenarios)
at the flop. Out of position that will mean donk-betting or checking and waiting to
see if a check-raise is required to isolate.
Entering these pots as a defender is more dangerous, especially out of position. If
you are playing a small or medium pocket pair you must be aware of the danger of
running into a larger pocket pair and losing to a better full house.
Check-calling once out of position is a logical progression (in PS6), but unless you
are committed, you do not normally want to be check-calling again on the turn. You
will end up in that guessing game situation that you want to avoid.
Check-raising is risky, but works well against opponents playing wide ranges. If
you can check-raise without building the pot too much, you will steal the initiative
and win more pots than check-calling.
Summary:
Carefully assess your equity against your opponent’s range
In low SPR committed spots play fearlessly towards a showdown
In higher SPR spots proceed with watchful aggression
In multi-way pots prioritise isolation
Beware of losing huge pots to opponents holding higher pocket pairs
Chapter 12: Two Pair (Pocket Pair – overpair and paired board)
These boards are quite strong. The pair on the board will generally be a low pair
when you hold an overpair, so in a raised pot you are going to be ahead most of the
time, unless an opponent has hit trips. That means once again, you should play them
with watchful aggression.
Although there are actually more dangers on these flops than on flops in the
previous chapter, you will tend to make more chips on these flops as opponents
will catch the lower pair or chase straight and flush draws. Simply put, you will get
more action.
In the previous chapter, I stated that the most common hand you will lose a huge pot
to will be a pocket pair larger than yours. That is also true of these types of boards,
so be on your guard for them.
In huge pots, you want to be the player with the higher of two pocket pairs, or else

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you want to be finding an escape route. Whether that escape route exists will
depend on the effective stack size and the betting pattern. In short-stacked situations
eg hyper turbos, you will always be fully-committed to these flops, but in deeper-
stacked situations you need to assess the postflop action carefully.
SPR (Stack to Pot Relative Risk 2P: Pocket Pair
Ratio) greater than Paired
Board– Committed?
0-3 Very low Yes
4-6 Low Yes
7-10 Medium Situational
11-14 High Situational
15+ Very high Situational

In this 6-max MTT, the blinds are only 25/50 and I have raised to 150 from the
hijack. The button calls, the flop is 5c 6h 5d and I C-bet (PS3 and SPR6). My
opponent then makes a huge raise to 1000 chips and seems completely committed:

In PS1 or PS3 you should be C-betting 100% of the time on these flops and
somewhere around half the pot.
If a player raises to a normal amount of something around the pot size (in this case
575), I would think that bluffs might belong to his raising range, but a committed-
looking raise such as this one is highly likely to be a pocket pair and sometimes a
strong ace or A5. Drawing hands could be played this way, but are less likely
considering the low cards on the board. Given the fact that the villain did not re-
raise preflop, I would think 22 to 88 are more likely than 99-AA. That is a key

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point here.
If I had held a low pocket pair this decision would be much harder as my equity
would be dropping below 50% and I would need to be prepared to fold, but 99 is
still doing very well against my opponent’s range (around 66%) and as a result, I
push all-in and win a big pot against 77.
The pocket pairs which are often involved in borderline decisions are often 66
to 99, so practicing equity calculations against different ranges with these hands is
time well spent.
In the next hand I have limped in with 77 on level 1 of an SNG hoping to hit a set
and 5 players saw the flop 5s 6h 5h: (PS1, PS1, PS3, PS3 and SPR14)

This can be very difficult to play because of the number of opponents increasing the
danger that someone holds a 5 or another very strong hand. It is a limped pot,
however, so top pocket pairs are unlikely opposition hands and there is still a
strong chance I am in front. Betting is the right choice here. You want to isolate to
one opponent who could be drawing or hold the 6, or you want to make
everyone fold.
I choose 75% of the pot, but a 100% pot bet is okay here too. The pot itself is not
huge and the SPR is over 14, so I could risk building it slightly more in order to
maximize my chance of isolating to one opponent.
This time 75 chips proved enough to isolate to one opponent, the turn was Kc and I
bet again. You should nearly always make a second bet when the turn card is an
overcard, especially an ace or king. If you believe your opponent may be drawing
you should tend to bet more. My opponent called and 3d was the river:

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On the river I have to decide between making another bet or just check-calling.
Against aggressive players you should favour check-calling as they will bluff a
decent percentage of times, but against passive players leading out with even a
small value bet may be more profitable. The other thing you need to consider is
what hands he is going to call with. In this case, I decided that there was a strong
likelihood he had missed a draw, so there was really no benefit at all in betting at
the river. Perhaps I would get some calls from hands such as AJh, A6 or 22, but
overall betting at the river does not seem profitable.
Sometimes an alternative to checking in these situations is to make a small, value
bet, which could be as little as 15-20% of the pot. That way, opponents with
marginal hands such as 44 or 88 will just flat-call the bet and raises will be a
mixture of bluffs and genuine hands. If your opponent does raise, the natural raise
size will then be affordable for you to look him up. If you are in an ICM situation
that rewards survival ahead of chip accumulation, these additional value bets on the
river often carry too much risk, so, in this example, I decline to bet, knowing that I
am on level one of an SNG.
In this example I led the betting at the flop even though I had only limped in preflop.
I am still strictly the first player to enter the pot voluntarily, so I am in PS3 against
the button (though it is similar to PS6). In a pot with no real preflop aggressor, a
lead-out bet out of position is much more acceptable.
In a raised pot, leading out with a donk-bet is also a plausible option on these types
of flops, especially if the raiser has a low C-bet percentage. You will find that a lot
of players will choose not to C-bet at these boards, so hoping to check-call or
check-raise always carries an element of risk.

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Check-calling will often be a logical and sound choice against aggressive
opponents, but you should also consider the potential advantages of the check-raise:
check-raising shuts hands down sooner out of position; it helps to isolate to one
opponent if required; it negates some of the risk of seeing scare cards on the
turn and river; it charges your opponent more for seeing the next card; and it
gathers more information about your opponent’s hand.
Check-calling may be superior if there is only one opponent or when you believe an
opponent is going to bluff into you on future streets a high percentage of the time.
Even so, you are playing more of a guessing game on the turn and river.
I want to show two examples of when I would check-raise these types of boards to
illustrate the advantages of taking this aggressive line:

This is the beginning of a 6-max MTT and I have cold-called with 99 for a cheap
amount preflop, hoping to hit a set, but the flop is 5s 2s 2d (PS6, PS6 and SPR7).
I start with a check (although a donk-bet is feasible in this situation) and the raiser
C-bets a small amount. Undersized C-bets are usually a sign of weakness.
Check-calling here is wrong as it invites another player to call and allows both
opponents to see another card for a cheap price. I raised, the hijack folded, the
button called, Jh was the turn card, I bet out and my opponent folded. You should
strongly consider the check-raise in multi-way pots.
In the next example, I am again on the big blind and I have called a 3x raise from
the cutoff with TT. Note that it may offer more +EV to re-raise preflop and C-bet
the flop, but you will stay alive more often with a flat-call which is important in the
early stages of an SNG. The flop is 8s 8d 5c: (PS6 and SPR4)

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The SPR is only 4 and clearly I am committed to this. Check-calling is how most
players negotiate this, but check-raising seems to make more money. I could lead
out with a donk-bet, but the villain has a C-bet percentage of 86, so I am confident a
check-raise is going to be possible and I choose a size which might tempt a player
with overcards in, knowing that I can shove on the turn. This time he folded.
One of the obvious dangers of these flops is the paired board. In very deep-stacked
situations you have to try and find out whether an opponent may have hit trips with
clever postflop bets and raises aimed at gathering that information. If you enter a
pot with a limp or you call a very small raise, there may be many players seeing the
flop with wide ranges and the chances that one of them has trips increases. This is
one of the drawbacks of playing pocket pairs negatively preflop. The truth is that
these flops are a lot stronger in sub 30BB situations or in raised pots against
opponents with predictable calling ranges.
Here is an example of me failing to escape from an unpredictable player who hits
trips: (PS2, PS1 and SPR5)

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The hijack has limped preflop and from the cutoff I have raised 4x and been called
both by the big blind and the initial limper (PS2 and PS1). The flop is 3c 5d 3h and
the SPR is over 5. A large donk-bet ensues from a player who donk-bets 44% of the
time. I think he could have a very wide range and consider this a good gambling
situation. I raise to a natural amount which should allow for an all-in on the turn. It
protects my hand and prevents the big blind from making a cheap call. The big
blind folded and my opponent re-raised putting me in an awkward place. I felt that
he would make these moves with any pocket pair as well as a 3, so I decided to
gamble and was disgusted when he showed K3 and ended my tournament.
Against a strong or predictable opponent, I would find a fold in this spot for I
would have far less equity against my opponent’s range, but against a weak
opponent I believe I will win close to 40% of the time which is easily enough to
justify gambling with so many chips already invested. Make the decision
mathematical and logical. It is 910 chips to win exactly 2000, so I should call if I
can win more than 30% of the time. It all depends on whether he would do this with
22 to 99 and A5.
This is the kind of yellow zone SPR where you want to try and escape from an
opponent with trips. Your success in doing so will depend on how accurately you
can read your opponents’ bets. In this example, it is entirely possible that my
opponent would never go all-in without the 3 or better here and that I have
overestimated my equity. His W$SD (won dollars at showdown percentage) is
actually quite good at 57% and had I noticed this playing live, I might have found
an excellent fold.
If you are aware of weak players at your table who call with wide ranges, then play

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a tight-aggressive game and expect to be challenged from time to time by moments
such as this one.
Summary:
Be on your guard for players with higher pocket pairs
In short-stacked situations you should always be committed to these
flops
Practice equity calculations with 66 to 99 as these hands are often
borderline hands
Limped pots and more opponents increase the risk someone has hit trips
Check-raising is often best when out of position in multi-way pots on the
flop
Check-calling works well against aggressive opponents
Deep-stacked, make bets and raises to find out if an opponent has trips
Chapter 13: Two Pair (High Card > Pocket Pair > paired board)
The main difference with these flops is that the unpaired card on the board poses an
additional threat. This weakens your hand considerably. Nevertheless, it is still a
board that is unlikely to have connected with your opponent’s hand and you should
be generally positive about your options.
On a dry board it is likely that you are either a long way ahead or a long way
behind, so you should aim to find out which is true. This is not always easy as your
opponents will frequently bluff on boards such as this.
SPR (Stack to Pot Relative Risk 2P: High Card >
Ratio) Pocket Pair > Paired
Board – Committed?
0-3 Very low 90%
4-6 Low 40%
7-10 Medium No
11-14 High No
15+ Very high No

As the preflop raiser you should normally C-bet the flop, but keep your C-bet size
small. Your C-bet size should be 40%- 50% of the pot unless there are lots of
draws on the board. If your C-bet is unsuccessful, re-assess the situation and think
about how likely it is that your opponent is genuinely strong.
In this example, I hold 77 in the small blind and raise the unopened pot by around
2.5BB. The big blind calls and the flop is 3h 3c Td: (PS3 and SPR12)

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When you are playing heads-up or in blind versus blind situations, players will
tend to be less respectful of bets and raises. Indeed C-bets at these boards are
routinely attacked in modern poker. My opponent might think I am stealing and C-
betting up to 100% of the time in this example, so it is sensible for him to attack a
dry board.
When I C-bet just less than half the pot, he min-raises to 100 and I have to make a
decision. Either I am a long way ahead or a long way behind. I am out of position,
so I do not want to play a guessing game for the rest of the hand. I should choose re-
raise or fold.
Calling in these spots is a frequent mistake that players make. It gives you no
information and can end up costing you far more chips than if you choose to raise. If
my opponent calls or raises after this bet, I know he must have at least a ten and I
can fold safely. On this occasion I re-raised to 180, the villain folded and I won the
pot.
In high SPR situations like this one, there is no reason why you cannot make two,
successive, aggressive plays at the pot postflop before admitting defeat. In lower
SPR scenarios this is not always possible and sometimes you are going to be
forced into a difficult choice. If your opponent bets an amount that challenges your
tournament life, you are at times going to have to lay down what might be the
best hand.
Looking one more time at this hand, there is a non-standard alternative which I like.
As the raiser out of position, sometimes attempting to check-raise the flop is a
powerful move, similar to the re-raise I actually make. The inherent danger, of
course, is if your opponent simply checks behind you and gets a free card. If your

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opponent’s C-bet percentage is over 80%, it is often a risk worth taking.
In position, if you face a donk-bet on these flops (PS2), you can either call or raise,
but try and choose raise if the donk-bet is a small one. I often prefer to raise as
calling gives your opponent the first opportunity to represent whatever falls on the
turn. At that point it frequently gets difficult not to fold.
If you are the preflop defender, you should be looking to become the preflop
aggressor as this is a board where you are probably ahead, but do not particularly
want to see more cards. As a result raising is usually much smarter than calling.
If you are playing in position and your opponent checks, you should bet. If he C-
bets, you should normally raise.
In this example I am defending 77 out of position having just called a min-raise
preflop. The flop is 3s 3h 9s and the villain C-bets: (PS6 and SPR3)

Although there is a flush draw on the board, which makes it less attractive to check-
raise, I decide to try it anyway, as it will still have a high success rate. If my
opponent shoves, I will have to fold, knowing that sometimes he might just have a
flush draw. Actually, he just called and the turn was 2s:

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With 1500 in the middle and just 1153 remaining I should be gambling here. I am
going to win this often enough to justify gambling (30% equity required). Even if he
is ahead right now, I might have 11 outs which make up 24% of my equity.
The villain’s decision to only call on the flop is a likely sign of weakness and I am
resolved to commit to the hand. If I fail to bet on the turn, there is a risk that my
opponent will check behind (this happens frequently on future streets if a re-raise
or check-raise has taken place on a prior street), so betting behind my check-raise
is important. That is the easy bit.
Bet-sizing on the turn is complex. I choose all-in as this secures the most fold
equity against a weak opponent. I do not want him calling with 2 overcards and a
bigger flush draw. It might be true that staggering two bets of 800 and 400 across
turn and river makes more overall profit (more +EV), but the difference is very
slight. The critical fact is that all-in secures the most fold equity and therefore
protects my tournament life most often. The ICM factor of an SNG tournament
should sometimes encourage you to prioritise fold equity over pure value. The non-
showdown winnings might be slightly smaller than the showdown winnings, but
they come risk-free.
This is a subtle point, but try to imagine all the possible hands my opponent could
hold which I am beating (AJ, 66, KsQ etc) and ignore all the hands which have me
beaten. How much equity will his range have against my hand? I would think it
would average around 15%. Remember he only needs 30% equity to justify calling
an all-in. There is not a big enough difference between those 2 numbers for me to
want to try and exploit the value in smaller bets.
Normally once the pot size is greater than the number of chips remaining in the

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effective stack, this logic is going to apply and you should prefer all-in to smaller,
value bets. If your opponent is a thinking player, sometimes an all-in may appear
weaker than two smaller bets. If your goal is to secure fold equity, choose the bet
size which will scare your opponent the most. That might not always be all-in.
So far both examples have shown flops with a low high card. When a high card hits
the flop, the idea is to try and represent it quickly and try and win a small pot.
Normally that will be with two, successive aggressive plays as in the first two
examples. Sometimes, though, the best way to represent a particular card or
hand is to call rather than raise. This is especially true when trying to represent
an ace and especially true when in position.
Here is an example where I hold 88 in the big blind and have called a raise from
the small blind and seen a flop of 2c 2s As: (PS4 and SPR7))

If I actually held an ace in this spot I would most likely flat-call the first bet
because despite the flush draw there are very few dangers on this board. This is
often true of ace high boards as there are no possible overcards that can come on
the turn. As a result, I opt to call this bet, hoping to use my position and the ace to
make my opponent fold on a future street. The turn card was Kd:

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This time the villain checked and I was able to make a small half pot-sized bet to
scare him away.
You could argue that the cards I hold are of little relevance to the betting pattern
(C/C/B). This is largely true and a “delayed bluff” of this nature can be performed
with any two cards. Having said that, it is useful to hold a pair against a loose
opponent as it does improve the showdown odds, either by hitting a 2-outer or
more likely being ahead against a weaker hand.
I am going to end this chapter by looking at one final example of a check-raise as
this should be your preference when out of position on these flops. It is a heads-up
situation and I hold 44 with a chip stack just outside the zone where I should be
shoving back preflop. I call the raise and the flop is: Qd 3s 3d (PS6 and SPR4)

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Facing a strong C-bet I check-raise to just less than pot-size, forcing a fold from my
opponent. On this type of board, the success rate of the check-raise is very high.
Being in heads-up situations or against players raising with loose ranges also
increases the success rate.
The truth is that these flops often produce a raising war at the flop stage. By being
aggressive, you will win more than you lose, but if your opponent will not fold and
you have already made at least one, possibly two strong bets, make sure you fold
and avoid losing showdowns. The deeper your stack is, the more important it is to
follow this. Against players with low WTSD percentages or very tight-passive
players, it is especially important to follow this line of reasoning.
Entering postflop all-in situations with less than 10% equity should be avoided
even if you have a huge amount invested in the middle. Do not assume you are
committed if you have 50% of your stack in the middle as that is not always the
case. Conversely, you should be more reluctant to fold when you are shorter-
stacked or your opponent is loose and aggressive.
Summary:
Deep-stacked make two, successive, aggressive plays at the pot
Normally avoid calling on these boards, choose raise or fold for
information
Only call if you are representing a high card in position
Out of position favour the check-raise as your weapon of choice on these
boards
Beware of over-committing and ensure you fold when appropriate

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Chapter 14: Two Pair (Pocket Pair < Paired board)
These boards are slightly weaker versions of the previous two chapters. The
strength of your hand depends a lot on whether the unpaired card on the flop is also
higher than your pocket pair. If that card is higher than your pair then there is an
increased danger level (as in chapter 13). If not, you are only being beaten by a
player who has hit trips or one holding a higher pocket pair (as in chapter 12).
The advice from the previous two chapters holds true and contains most of what
you need to know. The fact that your pocket pair is lower than the pair on the board
has very little impact on the overall strength of your hand.
Indeed the only difference is that you are slightly more vulnerable to being beaten
by players with higher pocket pairs or to losing with a full house against a better
full house. In situations when you believe your opponent is playing a narrow range
of cards eg a 10% range, you should be particularly cautious of running up against a
higher pocket pair. Preflop and postflop your overall aggression level with each
pocket pair should increase logically anyhow, so this should be a natural part of
your thought process as you assess your likely equity against your opponent’s range.
The effective stack size is of great importance when playing small and medium
pocket pairs. Try to avoid putting yourself in awkward postflop situations by
making decisive moves preflop (3-bet or fold), especially in < 20BB situations.
There is really no point in calling raises preflop if you do not have the right odds to
set-mine (the effective stack should be at least 15 to 20 times the preflop
investment). When you are short-stacked, either play the pocket pair
aggressively from the outset, or don’t play it at all.
On the other hand when you do have a deep enough stack to set-mine, it is useful to
have some ways of making chips in the 86.7% of cases when you miss your set.
Dry boards and loose raisers are your optimum targets. The famous saying, “No
set, no bet” might aid those players who are too aggressive, but it might be counter-
productive for those of you looking for additional ways of taking down pots through
non-showdown. Challenge opponents who are playing wide ranges and respect
those who play narrow ranges.
Short-handed situations or playing back against button-raisers are ideal spots for
counter-attacking.
In this heads-up sit n go tournament, it is level one and the effective stack is 73BB.
I call a min-raise with 44 and see a flop of Js 6c Jh: (PS6 and SPR19)

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Many inexperienced players like to donk-bet into this type of flop, but the donk-bet
is less profitable than either the check-call or the check-raise. It fails to shut down
the hand often enough. Remember when you are the preflop defender you should
tend to start with a check postflop and ask yourself the postflop questions: “How
likely am I to be ahead right now?” “How likely am I to win at showdown (do your
equity calculation)? “How difficult is this likely to be to play on the turn and
river?” “Do I want to see another card?”
In this spot, I think I’m going to be ahead a high percentage of the time, but that
percentage will drop slightly at showdown, so it makes sense to protect the hand. I
don’t really want to see more cards out of position and play a guessing game on the
turn and river. I might make more chips check-calling if my opponent bluffs a lot,
but the check-raise is more clinical. It forces another round of betting, gathering
more information from your opponent. This time, the villain folded.
You should avoid the check-raise in shorter-stacked situations if the pot is in danger
of getting too big. Ideally you should be able to make another bet on the turn without
getting over-committed should your opponent call your check-raise.
Having said that, the check-raise on these boards is profitable as a bluff in its
own right. It should work around 70% of the time, which is huge. There will be
exceptional circumstances when you should check-raise almost entirely for its
bluffing value. An example might be when you are able to put your opponent in a
decision for his tournament life. You make a check-raise that makes you look
committed, so any playback from your opponent is a sure sign that you are beaten
and you can give up the hand even if you have more than half your stack in the
middle (you are confident you are on a 2-outer).

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If you know your opponent is tight, too, it can sometimes be right to give up the
hand as soon as your check-raise is called. In most situations, though, it will be
correct to bet the turn behind your check-raise on the flop, even when this feels
uncomfortable.
Summary:
At < 20BB play small / medium pairs decisively preflop (3-bet or fold)
Dry boards and loose raisers are your optimum targets
Challenge opponents playing wide ranges; respect opponents playing
narrow ranges
The higher the SPR, the more caution you should show
The check-raise on these boards is profitable as a bluff in its own right

Chapter 15: One Pair (overpair)

In this chapter we will predominantly cover 77 to TT as I have already covered JJ
to AA and it is rare to have an overpair with lower pairs.
When you assess this type of flop you ought to ask yourself how likely you are to be
ahead and do you want to see the turn and river card.
The biggest danger of losing a big hand in these situations is being up against a
bigger pocket pair, so you ought to assess your opponent’s range and figure out
how committed you are to the hand. In high SPR situations you need to be able to
escape from these flops by betting sensibly and gathering information. In lower
SPR situations you will always be committed and happy to gamble. The grey area
exists when the SPR is between 5 and 10, and your decision will depend largely on
your opponent and how likely he is to hold a higher pocket pair or set.
SPR (Stack to Pot Relative Risk One Pair (Overpair) –
Ratio) Committed?
0-3 Very low Yes
4-6 Low 80%
7-10 Medium 40%
11-14 High No
15+ Very high No

Playing these hands in position is easier and more profitable than playing them out
of position. Being the preflop aggressor is also an advantage. I want to examine 2
hands played in position. The first hand I am committed to; the second I am not. I
will then do the same thing for 2 hands played out of position.

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I am sat with 23BB in the closing stages of a 2-table SNG. I raise from the button
with TT and am called by the big stack on the big blind. We see this flop: 6h 2h 8d
(PS1 and SPR3)

Firstly, I assess the flop and consider that I am very likely to be ahead. This is a
good gambling spot for me in the tournament and on average I am probably going to
win at least 75% of the time at showdown against my opponent’s loose range. I
have established that I am 100% committed to the hand and will fold under no
circumstances. This assertion is always a useful junction on your flow diagram
of thought processes. You are now no longer thinking about whether to put chips
in the middle, but simply how to put them there.
My opponent (whose donk-bet percentage is 42%) donk-bets a small amount. This
is a sign that he may have hit something or has a piece of a draw. My hand is strong,
but it is not strong enough to risk flat-calling. Your default play in this type of
situation should always be to raise the donk-bet.
If you are committed to the hand, as I am here, focus on how to get the remaining
chips in the middle. Sometimes, just shoving all-in on certain flops can be an
attractive option, perhaps when you want to make your hand look like a flush draw
or you particularly want your opponent to fold. More often, though, you should
raise normally to around the pot size. Try not to be influenced too much by the
size of the donk- bet when making your raise size, but rather focus on the pot
size and aim for 75% to 100% of the pot.
In this situation, I am also considering the effective stack remaining (4,022) and
figuring I can stagger my all-in across flop and turn, raising to pot size now and
then getting the rest in on the turn. This common betting structure (R/R/B) is

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more likely to entice your opponent in to the action, so use it when your desire to
gamble is high.

My opponent called my flop raise and checked the turn. I pushed in the remaining
chips and he called and showed A8.
Against loose opponents keep your bet sizes higher than average. When C-
betting whilst committed to a hand, tend to choose pot-sized bets rather than half-
pot. If you are unsure of how committed you are, stick to optimum bet sizes based
on the texture of the flop.
In the next example, I am the middle stack of a three-man bubble. I raise from the
button and am called by the big stack in the small blind and we see a flop of 6h 3d
4c: (PS1 and SPR5)

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I C-bet a good amount, the villain shoved and I folded. The key difference between
this hand and the previous hand is my commitment level. Because of the bubble
dynamics I require a huge amount of equity to justify calling. Too often I will be
against an overpair or a set and I may be calling with just 2 outs. Inexperienced
players frequently make the mistake of calling in this spot. The correct action is to
fold and preserve your strong equity in the prize money. The first postflop
dimension can often trump all the others and tournament players must respect this.
Before you make any C-bet, try and plan your next response in advance.
Playing out of position is more difficult, but your mentality should be similar. If you
are the preflop aggressor you should always continue with a C-bet on these boards.
If you are not the aggressor (PS6) then you have to choose between the usual 3
options.
This is an occasion when donk-betting is often the best solution. Boards with low
cards are often checked by the raiser, so unless you know your opponent has a high
C-bet percentage, starting with a check could result in a free turn card for your
opponent(s) which is definitely not a good thing.
In high SPR situations in particular I strongly recommend donk-betting. If your
intention is to commit to the hand, check-raising and occasionally check-calling are
also options worth considering. You can check-raise all-in (or check-raise the flop
and shove the turn) in lower SPR situations and you might check-call when you also
hold a draw of some description.
I want to look at the donk-bet first as this is the default play. In this hand I call a
small preflop raise from the small blind holding 99 and see a 3-way flop of 3d 2h
5h: (PS6 and SPR9)

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Note that this is the early stages of an SNG and re-raising preflop with 99 is
slightly dangerous in a format which rewards survival. In an MTT, re-raising offers
slightly more +EV and also aids both in isolating to one opponent and defining your
opponent’s range.
This is a wet board and my opponent C-bets only 50% of the time. I do not want to
give my opponents a free card and I need to make at least one of them fold, so
leading out with a donk-bet makes good sense. I am by no means committed to my
hand and will fold to an aggressive move as I am wary of bigger pocket pairs.
The big blind called, but the initial raiser folded and the turn was 2c.

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It is far less likely that the big blind is holding a premium hand as he only flat-
called preflop and only called the flop. The turn card is friendly, so another bet is
logical. You should still be prepared to fold to an aggressive move from an
opponent who appears to be fairly passive, but being out of position makes you
vulnerable to a good bluff or semi-bluff. Leading the betting out of position is
often going to cause such dilemmas. On this occasion though the big blind folded to
the turn bet.
In shorter-stacked situations you are usually going to be committed to these
flops, so although the donk-bet remains a strong option, check-raising is a useful
strategy for stealing the C-bet from the aggressor, whilst offering up poor odds for
them to call with 2 overcards (they require 30-45% equity to call, but have only
24%).
The final example I want to examine is not the check-raise, but the check-call,
which is rarely going to be your best option on these flops. In the hand below I am
holding 55 with 29BB and have limp-called versus a button min-raise preflop. The
flop is 2h 4d 3s: (PS6 and SPR3)

Clearly I am committed to the flop, so my thoughts turn to how I can maximize my

profit. A donk-bet is perfectly rational, but on this board the villain is too likely to
just fold. Checking usually carries a huge risk, but here if my opponent were to
check behind, seeing the turn card could be a good thing as well as a bad thing. My
straight draw includes the aces, which have fantastic implied odds when one hits (if
my opponent holds an ace, I am certain to win all the chips).
In the previous examples I was not hugely keen on seeing a turn card, whereas here
there are additional benefits. For these reasons, I choose to check-call and then

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check-raise all-in on the turn, which was the 7d. My opponent called with AT and
the river was Ad.
Checking again on the turn also carries the risk that the villain will check behind,
but for the same reasons as above, this does not worry me too much. Bad cards can
fall on the river, but good cards can fall too. When you are out of position and
believe you are ahead on the flop, the betting pattern of check-call the flop and
check-raise the turn is often good poker.
Summary:
Beware of bigger pocket pairs in opponent ranges
Try to establish your commitment level to the flop
Usually raise donk-bets
Out of position your default play on these flops should be to lead the
betting
Shorter-stacked, out of position, consider the check-raise

Chapter 16: One Pair (Pocket pair as second pair)

These flops are considerably weaker than those discussed in the previous chapter.
As is so often the case, being the preflop raiser and remaining aggressive are key
factors in making good profit.
SPR (Stack to Pot Relative Risk One Pair (Pocket Pair
Ratio) as Second Pair) –
Committed?
0-3 Very low 80%
4-6 Low 30%
7-10 Medium No
11-14 High No
15+ Very high No

When you are playing in postflop decision scenario 1, you can C-bet 100% of the
time and double-barrel almost always (it will usually be more profitable to bet
again on the turn even when it seems risky). If you arrive at the river card then a
third bet is worth considering carefully. Much will depend on your opponent’s
profile and his likely holding. If you make a final bet it needs to have value i.e. your
opponent’s calling range needs to include more hands that you have beaten than
vice versa. It is more likely to have value when all-in is a natural bet size, but in
deeper-stacked situations checking behind will tend to be correct.
In this first example, I have raised preflop to 3x (150) in position in a sensitive
bubble situation and proceeded to double-barrel a board of 2h 4h Qs Qd:

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On each street you should consider what hands are in your opponent’s range.
Although this is a difficult task at times, persevering will help you to develop as a
poker player and to make smarter postflop choices.
In this situation, I believe the villain holds one of three types of hand. He may have
a pocket pair below 99, but is unlikely to have a high pocket pair. He may have a
drawing hand, most likely two hearts. Finally he could hold broadway cards,
probably ace high or one of the queens. If he had a queen it is quite likely he would
have bet out at the river or even check-raised the flop or turn, so there are not many
hands in his range that I am particularly afraid of at this point.
I still need to work out what hands he is likely to call a river bet with. In this spot,
with two pairs on the board, he will call with A2, Qx and TT, but he will probably
also call with all smaller pocket pairs and Ax. His pot odds are simply too good to
fold these hands and he has enough chips to do so. After all, I could be making one
last desperate play at a missed flush draw or I may hold Ax.
When he calls, I am going to win this hand far more often than lose it. This is
the key point and this is why a final bet, even in a sensitive bubble situation, is the
right play. I went all-in, my opponent called and showed AJo.
So value-betting the river is a two-stage process: firstly assess your opponent’s
range and then work out if you are winning more often than you are losing
against his calling range.
In this second example, it is much earlier in a 6-max SNG and I have arrived in a
very similar situation (R/B/B in PS1), but this time the effective stack depth is
much larger:

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The initial preflop calling range of my opponent might be similar to that of the
villain in the previous example, but ought to be slightly tighter given the tournament
dynamics. His 3Bet range seems wider at 12.8%, so I am less afraid of premium
pairs. The only hands I am really afraid of are Qx, but once again he has shown no
aggression up to this point in the hand, so it seems fairly unlikely that I am behind.
This assertion does not automatically mean that I should bet though. Remember that
this is a two-stage process. To have come this far in the hand, the villain should
normally have either a queen or a missed draw. If he has missed a draw, how likely
is he to call a bet on the river? There may be a small group of hands with which he
might consider calling that I have beaten eg 66 or A4s, but given his situation in the
tournament he is also quite likely to fold these hands to a player showing
aggression on all streets.
Overall, I do not see clear value in making a bet at the river. Sometimes when you
are playing against a calling station, you can miss out on value by checking in these
spots, but unless you are convinced that you are winning more than 50% of the time
against your opponents’ calling range, you should check behind as I do here. My
opponent showed 89h and I won a medium-sized pot.
There may be a temptation to make an undersized value bet eg 25% of the pot, but
normally this is going to be a false economy. If a player is prepared to call 25%
they will usually be prepared to pay 50% or more, so when you combine this fact
with the additional risk of getting check-raised (either a genuine one or less
commonly as a bluff), small value bets on the river tend to be sub-optimum.
Checking behind is certainly the safe play and should be your default play
when you are uncertain.

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Playing these hands as the raiser out of position (PS3) does not differ much at all.
Occasionally an opponent might raise one of the streets, which will normally force
you to fold, but in general there are very few differences. You ought to C-bet and
double-barrel. Triple-barrelling is usually more profitable than checking on the
river, but at this point you will need to assess your opponent’s profile and the
tournament situation.
Playing these flops when you are not the preflop raiser is problematic. The
commonly heard expression “No set, no bet” often rings true. If there are more than
two players active, you might find that folding is your best option despite the fact
you hold second pair. If it is just you and the raiser and you have position, then
calling or raising the C-bet will normally be profitable. Obviously if the raiser fails
to C-bet, you should take over the betting and this will always be a profitable play
(PS5) on these boards.
If you have limped in or called a raise preflop and are sat out of position (PS6),
check-raising should be your weapon of choice. Try and avoid check-calling deep-
stacked as you will be left playing a guessing game with no real outs when you are
behind.
Against aggressive opponents check-calling may be your best option. Also, if you
feel committed to the hand, then there are times when check-calling might be
preferable to check-raising, but not normally.
Check-folding is negative, but okay if you strongly believe you are behind. Donk-
betting is not out of the question, but rarely is it superior to check-raising. Check-
raising gathers the most reliable information from your opponent(s) on dry
boards and when you are out of position holding a hand that is either a long way
ahead or a long way behind, you should prioritise finding out that information.
Very accomplished postflop players may prefer to check-call more often and react
to their opponents’ future bets.
Here is a very generic example. I cold-call a raise preflop with 88 (MTT players
may prefer the 3Bet here) and the flop is Qd 3c 7s: (PS6 and SPR6)

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These flops are ideal for check-raising and you can do this profitably with any two
cards as your opponent will fold a very high percentage of the time. If you do get
called you simply make a strong turn bet, which will also have a good success rate
and then give up unless you improve. It is a fairly straightforward play and it
outperforms both check-calling and donk-betting. In this example, I am simply
asking my opponent, “Have you got a queen, or not?” When he folds, he gives me
the answer.
Check-raising is not just about information-gathering though. Here is an example of
when check-raising offers more value than all other options. I have called a 3x
raise (to 150) preflop with 88 rather than making a 3bet (3betting is generally more
profitable but I try and avoid squeeze plays against opponents who rarely fold): the
flop is 2c 6h 9c (PS6 and SPR2)

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This is a board which is unlikely to have hit either of my opponents’ hands. The
remaining chips to be won or lost (in this case 985) are roughly double the pot size
when the flop comes down (SPR2). This is not a deep enough situation to be able to
work out whether an opponent has a 9 or not, especially given the possible draws.
So I really need to make a decision as to whether I am going to gamble or not.
Mostly I am going to choose to gamble. Checking first has the benefit of keeping the
check-fold option available in case both opponents show aggression. But in most
cases, it will be a check-raise, sucking in the chips from the C-bet, whilst tempting
my opponent into gambling with poor odds. My opponent called my check-raise
and lost with KQo. Playing a hand out of position is generally a disadvantage,
but in spots like this when you welcome a showdown, it can work to your
advantage.
If you choose to check-call instead, you are giving your opponent better odds to see
the next card and perpetuating your disadvantage of being out of position. Contrary
to popular belief, you should only really check-call these spots when you are
certain your opponent is going to keep bluffing (look for a high aggression factor),
but you will need a good sample of hands to make an accurate judgment.
Summary:
As the preflop raiser, C-bet AND double-barrel
Keep assessing your opponent’s range
Before triple-barreling, assess your equity against your opponent’s
calling range
Out of position, check-raise dry boards for information and to shut the
hand down early

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 Shorter-stacked, out of position, check-raise for optimum value
Chapter 17: One Pair (Pocket pair as a low pair)
These are not good flops. In the previous chapter I mentioned the famous saying,
“No set, no bet” and in this chapter we are going to discover that this is true around
70% of the time. If you are the preflop raiser in position, you will of course be C-
betting these flops most of the time, but in most other postflop scenarios you are
commonly going to want to fold or check-fold these flops. You should be
particularly willing to fold on wet boards. Nevertheless you should pay attention
to signs of weakness from your opponents and consider making the occasional,
positive stab at a pot when you believe it is profitable. Remember that in multi-
way pots, you should tend to fold.
SPR (Stack to Pot Relative Risk One Pair (Pocket Pair
Ratio) as a Low Pair) –
Committed?
0-3 Very low 55%
4-6 Low 15%
7-10 Medium No
11-14 High No
15+ Very high No

Firstly let us consider PS1. You ought to be C-betting, then double-barreling

selectively depending on your opponent’s profile and whether you can realistically
represent the turn card. Your showdown value against your opponent’s calling
range is very poor indeed, so unless you have enough fold equity to make your turn
bet profitable, you should consider cutting your losses and checking behind (you get
a free river card and still have position for the final round of betting). At all points
postflop you should fold to any raises. If there are 2 opponents on the flop you
should still C-bet.
In PS2 facing a donk-bet, then the situation is less straightforward. Much will
depend on your interpretation of the donk-bet and the donk-bet size. Folding is by
far the safest option when you are unsure, but if your opponent is loose and the
donk-bet is small, you might find that calling or raising has value. Sometimes the
donk-bet is so small that you can virtually ignore it and just raise over it as if you
were making a C-bet.
Take a look at this example from a 6-max hyper turbo bubble. I have raised from the
button, been called by the big blind and the flop is 6c 2s Ah: (PS2 and SPR3)

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I do not have enough data on my opponent to know his donk-bet percentage, but I do
see a very high aggression factor, which is an indicator that this player probably
bets out with nothing frequently. An ace high board is a good flop for a raiser and
representing that ace is a priority. Deeper-stacked and against a player of proven
ability, you might consider calling on the flop and getting aggressive on the turn
instead.
Here, I prefer an immediate raise in order to encourage an early fold. I do not
really want to see the turn card. Dry boards are better for this than wet boards
and players donk-betting into ace high boards tend to be bluffing a high
percentage of the time.
If the donk-bet is more than half the pot, there is no evidence that the villain is
loose, the board is wet or there are more than one active opponents, folding is
the best move more often than not.
If you are playing the hand as the raiser out of position (PS3), you will struggle to
make a profit in the hand, but I can assure you that making a C-bet is more
profitable than failing to make one. I would recommend a good sized C-bet as this
will probably be your one and only attempt to win the pot postflop. If an opponent
calls or raises, you will find it is almost impossible to justify putting further chips
into the pot unless you are lucky enough to turn a set. Suspecting your opponent
might be bluffing is not a strong enough reason for calling down bets out of
position with just 2 outs.
If you limp into pots or call raises with pocket pairs, you will find yourself
defending these flops quite frequently. When you are sat in position (PS4) it is
sometimes possible to play back against the raiser, depending on the nature of the

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flop and the raiser’s range. If you decide to stick around, calling the C-bet makes
more sense than raising.
Here is an example of the type of situation to look out for - I have a loose opponent
and a board of 8c 3c 7s (PS4 and SPR9), which is unlikely to have connected with
the raiser’s hand:

The value you get from calling is mostly coming from simply being ahead
frequently at this point, but the deeper-stacked you are, the more relevant the 8%
chance that you will hit a set on the turn or river becomes.
In very deep-stacked situations or when the C-bet is undersized you may even have
the right odds to call purely to hit your 2-outer. Here, I called my opponent’s C-bet
and was ready to take over the betting if he checked the turn. In fact, he led again on
the turn, which was the 8d and I called a second time.
Raising the turn card is worthy of consideration, but there is no need to increase the
pot size and most of the hands which call a raise will have me beaten. Calling in
position makes sense. If the river card is a high card and my opponent triple-barrels
it, I will happily fold, but most of the time I see the turn card, I like to go to
showdown in these kind of situations by simply calling again. If the river card is
anything other than a 7 and my opponent checks the river, I can check behind, as I
am not going to get called by hands that I have beaten.

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Unfortunately, the river card was 7c, leaving my hand crippled, yet disguised. This
is exactly the type of situation where you can use your position and tight image (if
you have one) to make a small, controlled bluff at the pot. If my opponent bets, a
bluff might not work often enough and I should fold, but when he checks he shows
weakness and the chance that a bluff will work increases. It also helps that the river
card completes a possible flush. I risked two-thirds of the pot, which I hoped was
enough to make an ace-high hand fold, and my opponent gave it up.
Learning to bluff on the river appropriately will increase your profitability as long
as you are already doing the basics correctly. I recommend building up a portfolio
of examples of situations to bluff on the river. This helps you to recognize
similar situations and betting patterns in the future.
If your opponent fails to C-bet (PS5), you should bet out and fold to a check-raise.
If your opponent check-calls, you will need to think things through carefully before
betting on the turn. Much will depend on the board and your opponent’s profile. A
passive opponent with low aggression, but high W$SD% (won dollars at
showdown when saw a flop percentage) tends to make money in showdowns.
Betting again against this type of player would normally be a mistake.
Finally, if you are out of position, defending the hand (PS6), consider your
opponents’ ranges carefully before making any attempt to win the hand. Check-
folding should be routine in multi-way pots.
The biggest mistake players make in this spot is check-calling. This is usually
the worst of your options. Check-raising on dry boards as a bluff can work well,
but you need to pick good spots as your showdown equity is going to be poor.
Leading out into unraised pots or donk-betting occasionally into raised pots does

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surprisingly well, but good opponents will exploit it, so be prepared for some
awkward postflop betting situations.
Defending these flops out of position, if you arrive at the turn you are probably in
very bad shape and should stop investing unless you have a solid reason for
continuing.
Summary:
Generally, “No set, no bet!”
Beware of wet boards
Look for signs of weakness from your opponents
Tend to fold in multi-way pots
For attacking: look for dry boards, loose opponent ranges and small
donk-bets
Avoid check-calling out of position
Try calling against loose opponents in position if the board is poor for the
raise

Summary (Volume 1)
As we reach the half-way point in our journey across the postflop universe, it is a
good point to pause and recap briefly on what we have learned so far.
We began by looking at the 12 postflop dimensions and the 6 postflop decision
scenarios PS1 to PS6. These are the foundations for ensuring solid postflop play.
They should be committed to memory and used consciously during each hand you
play. Over time, with practice, it will require less conscious prompting and will
form a natural part of your postflop game. But remember to avoid cruising on auto-
pilot!
We also looked at continuation-betting and useful postflop questions. These
opening chapters provided a framework and method for viewing and interpreting
postflop situations. This knowledge should be used to evolve the way in which you
approach hands postflop. You are considering more information in order to make
better decisions. It is a lot to put into practice at first but these concepts will form
the foundation of your poker knowledge, upon which you can continue to build as
you continue your poker journey.
Next, we looked at big hands in detail, followed by all of the possible types of
flops for pocket pairs. With 2,118,760 possible boards to go with one starting
hand, there will always be new and interesting scenarios to consider. So I urge you
to note intriguing or difficult hands you have played and then review them along
with the corresponding chapter in this book.
Then we looked at continuation-betting and postflop questions. These opening

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chapters provided a framework and method for viewing and interpreting postflop
situations.
Like anything, if you do not make an ongoing commitment to your game, you will
not continue to grow and develop, and this form of applied learning is a great way
to continually improve and expand your knowledge. I also recommend talking the
hands through with your friends or via online poker forums.
For those of you really looking to improve your game you could also consider
employing a poker coach. If you enjoyed this book and want to enquire about my
one on one coaching service you can find more information at
www.postfloppoker.com.
In volume 2, the journey continues as we explore all of the possible types of flops
for non-pocket pair hands. If you have not yet purchased Volume II you can also find
it at www.postfloppoker.com.

Volume 2
Part 5: High Value Flops playing with no pocket pair
Chapter 1: Four of a Kind (no pocket pair) or Straight Flush
These flops are uncommon and straightforward to play.
All monster flops should be played more or less in the same way, though in
deeper-stacked situations there is greater urgency to build up the pot size:
SPR (Stack to Pot Relative Risk Monster Flops
Ratio) (including Full House)
0-3 Very low Yes
4-6 Low Yes
7-10 Medium Yes
11-14 High Yes
15+ Very high Yes (99%)

Four of a kind with no pocket pair is the driest flop imaginable. Your opponents
will never have any piece of it, so I would almost always make a defensive action
first. This eliminates the risk that your opponent folds on the flop.

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There is always a balance between wanting to build up the size of the pot and not
wanting to scare away opponents, but unless your opponent is super-aggressive or
has 3-bet preflop, you should play the first street defensively. Remember “Monster
Flops” are a potential “No C-bet” category, so even when you are the preflop
raiser start the postflop betting slowly.
Be aware though, in PS1 in particular, strong opponents will be expecting a C-bet
from you and your failure to do so may ring an alarm bell. Many top players will
routinely C-bet anyway in this situation. My data suggests they are wrong to do so.
Give one free card and then get busy on the turn. It is a false economy to give
two free cards, even if the board is still unlikely to have connected with your
opponent’s hand. If there is no action by the turn, you have to start betting in order
to build up the pot.
If you flop a straight flush, the board will be considerably wetter, so your chances
of making some good profit are higher. However I still recommend one defensive
action on the flop.
If you arrive at the river and you have been unable to build up a sizeable pot,
always consider going all-in, even if you are grossly overbetting the pot. As I have
discussed previously, if you suspect your opponent may have made a flush or a
straight on the river, it is sometimes worth going for the maximum number of chips
rather than a standard value bet.
Summary:
Monster flops are a potential “No C-bet” category
All monster flops should be played more or less in the same way
Give one free / cheap card, then start betting on the turn
Consider betting the maximum on the river if there is a real chance of
being called
Chapter 2: Full house (no pocket pair)
Whilst these flops are slightly less rare than those of the previous chapter, they are
similarly straightforward to play. The main challenge is getting your opponent to
commit chips when it is unlikely he has connected with the board. You are so far
ahead, you really need your opponent to catch up before engaging in serious
postflop betting.
Take a look at a simple example of this psychology in action. I hold Q6 diamonds in
the small blind and see a cheap flop of 6c 6s Qc (PS6 and SPR10) with the big
blind and the cutoff. I check, both players check behind and the turn is 2c:

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I was hoping the turn card would be a high card or a spade so that an opponent
would connect with the board, but whatever this turn card is, I need to bet at it.
I choose a small bet to fool my opponent, but 50% of the pot is usually optimum.
Small bet sizes are a useful way of feigning weakness, but if your opponent is
strong you should not deviate from natural bet sizes. Small bets are also less
effective at building the pot.
The loose-passive player in the cutoff called the bet and the river was 9c. It makes
sense for me to make another small value bet to extract value from a whole bunch
of hands he might call with (including ace high hands) and to entice a raise:

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I bet 100 and the villain raised to 200. After his raise it is unlikely he is going to
fold his flush (45c), even though he should suspect he is behind. Loose players are
rarely able to fold in these situations, so it makes sense to go for the maximum
number of chips as opposed to a smaller re-raise.
Most of the time you flop a monster you will not win a huge pot. This is probably
not because you are playing it incorrectly, but because most of the time your
opponents have got nothing. Your job is to follow this strategy of giving one free /
cheap card, getting things in motion on the turn and tuning in to what possible hands
your opponent may have so you can make an appropriate bet on the river.
Summary:
Your opponents are unlikely to have connected with these flops
Give one free / cheap card to let them catch up or pick up a draw
Consider betting the maximum on the river if you have a reason to do so

Chapter 3: Flush
If you see a flop with a suited hand you have just a 1 in 119 chance of flopping
a flush. A flush can be put into 3 categories: the nut flush (best possible), a high
flush (2nd or 3rd best) or a low flush (any other). Any flopped flush is a huge hand
and in all low and medium SPR situations you are going to be fully committed to
the hand.
SPR (Stack to Pot Relative Risk Flush - Committed?
Ratio)
0-3 Very low Yes
4-6 Low Yes
7-10 Medium Yes
11-14 High Yes
15+ Very high Usually

In higher SPR spots you ought to be aware of which category of flush you hold so
that you can assess the danger level of an opponent holding a higher flush or
drawing to a better hand. Sometimes you may want to see another card and re-
assess your commitment on the turn or even river, but if you are forced into a
gambling situation on the flop, you should be prepared to gamble almost always.
Flushes play well on high SPR flops despite any risk element.
Having established commitment level to these pots, I want to turn my attention to
how best to play them. In the previous two chapters there has been a clear-cut
benefit in slow-playing the flop in almost all circumstances. Broadly speaking that

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remains true for flopped flushes, though there will be times when you want to
proceed more cautiously when scare cards hit the turn or river.
If you hold the nut flush, you have less to worry about. Try and give one free or
cheap card, then get busy on the turn. If the board pairs up on the turn, bet strongly
unless you are in a super deep-stacked situation, where a small amount of caution
may be necessary. Paired boards present danger to flushes and straights. If the
board is paired on the turn, a danger exists that an opponent may either already hold
a full house or may improve to a full house or four of a kind on the river.
If your opponent starts raising on the turn or river and the SPR is still very high, you
ought to consider just calling in situations when you can avoid going broke. If cards
pair up on both the turn and the river (or the river brings trips on the board), you
will need to re-assess the entire situation.
If you hold less than the nut flush, you need to think carefully before deciding
whether to slow play the hand. In situations when your opponent is likely to show
aggression, you should tend to slow play the flop. In situations when you are the
aggressor, C-betting will usually be better, especially if that is what your
opponent will expect.
As with any of these monster flop scenarios, if you know your opponent’s alarm
bells will start ringing should you fail to C-bet in PS1, go ahead and make the bet.
Not holding the nut flush is dangerous in very high SPR situations, as an opponent
may already hold a better flush or be drawing to one. Proceed with strong bets until
an opponent makes an aggressive move, then reassess your risk/reward ratio. If a
fourth card of the same suit falls on the turn or river, you will need to slow down
and in some cases, you may need to fold.
Here is one example hand. Holding QJ clubs in the early stages of a 6-max SNG, I
call a small raise from the SB and see a flop of 4c 6c 3c. (PS6 and SPR11)

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My first action is defensive as I am defending the hand and I choose to check-call
rather than check-raise. If the turn card is a club, I can check-call for the remainder
of the hand and if it is not a club I can check-raise the turn and bet the river. If the
board pairs up on the turn or the river my strategy will not change as I am unlikely
to escape against a full house being out of position and the SPR being only 11.
Normally, I only change strategy on a paired board if my opponent shows genuine
aggression and I believe I can realistically control the pot.

The turn card was 8d:

Often it is on the turn when it becomes clear whether your opponent has any

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piece of the action. Players C-bet the flop routinely with nothing, but they will
often give you more meaningful information on the turn. Here, I checked fearing my
opponent might check behind as the 8d did not look like a good card for the raiser.
When he bet again it indicated that he at least had a draw. A small check-raise will
be hugely successful in these spots. In fact, he shoved all-in, I called with great
equity against his range and he turned over Q8o with no club.
Once again this betting pattern (C/XC/XR) is suitable for monster flops in PS6.
Summary:
Be totally committed to any flopped flush, except in rare very high SPR
situations
Paired boards present danger to flushes and straights
Tend to slow play the flop and get busy on the turn
In PS1, C-bet if your opponent will be expecting a C-bet

Chapter 4: Straight
Let’s start by looking at the numbers. Here are the odds of flopping a straight:
Hole Cards Straight on the
Flop
Connected Cards 1 in 77
Single Gap 1 in 102
Connectors
Double Gap 1 in 153
Connectors

This accounts for all straights, both nut straights and lower straights. The less
connected your hand is, the less chance you have of flopping a straight. When you
do flop a straight you ought to consider your postflop scenario, the SPR, the quality
of your straight, potential flushes and flush draws and how disguised your straight
is.
SPR (Stack to Pot Relative Risk Straight - Committed?
Ratio)
0-3 Very low Yes
4-6 Low Yes
7-10 Medium Yes
11-14 High Usually
15+ Very high Usually

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If the flop is monotone, your tournament situation is delicate or you hold the bottom
cards to a straight, then you ought to be more cautious, but in general a straight is
still a strong enough hand for you to be committed to at the flop stage.
This means that for the most part you should play the hand in a similar manner to the
other monster flops we have examined. Nevertheless, as we climb down the ladder
of hand quality, the relative risk rises.
There will be times when scare cards drop on the turn or river and you should
assess carefully the meaning of any aggressive moves from your opponents. If
you believe you may have been overtaken on the turn or river, it is not always a
good plan to enter a raising war, especially when you have position and the option
of keeping the pot smaller.
Take a look at this hand from the second level of a 6-max SNG. I have min-raised
with A4 clubs from the button and been flat-called by the big blind. After a flop of
3s 5h 2s and an SPR of nearly 11, I proceed with a standard C-bet, which is called,
indicating my opponent has a piece of the action, possibly a draw. The turn card
was Kh:

The Kh on the turn is naturally a good card to double-barrel. On very wet boards
when you have position, a slightly larger than average bet makes sense in situations
when you are strong and wish to protect the hand. Make your opponent pay a good
price to see the river. There are so many scare cards that could hit the river that this
may be the last opportunity you have to extract value from the hand. If a spade
comes on the river, it will be too dangerous to value bet.
The river was 4h:

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My opponent checked once again having check-called the flop and turn. If I triple-
barrel I need to ensure I have the right value. The board is so scary that my
opponent may not even call with two pair or a set. It is unlikely he will call with
just a single pair, even if he has a king. His range includes a spade flush draw, Ax,
Kx and pocket pairs. If I am still ahead, there are very few hands I can extract much
value from and there are a dangerous number of hands that are either splitting the
pot with me or beating me. If my opponent were to check-raise that would leave me
in a nasty spot.
Value betting the river in this type of situation is far from straightforward and you
need to think carefully about all of these factors before making a choice. I prefer
value betting in situations when I know I can fold easily to a check-raise. I
decided to play safe and check behind. This choice saved me a huge number of
chips as my opponent was lining up a check-raise with the nut flush.
Note that in very similar river decisions, it is sometimes more profitable to make a
small value bet which will force many hands to call. There is a delicate balance
here and you should consider carefully the likelihood of your opponent check-
raising the river, whether you can fold to a check-raise and what the relative cost of
this is. I will explore this balance mathematically in a later chapter on river-betting.
In higher SPR situations, reassess your commitment level to the hand if scare
cards fall on the turn or river.
Summary:
Be totally committed to any flopped straight, except in high SPR
situations
Paired boards present danger to flushes and straights

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 Tend to slow play the flop and get busy on the turn
Assess carefully the meaning of any aggressive moves from your
opponents
In higher SPR spots, be prepared to slow down if scare cards hit the turn
or river
Chapter 5: Three of a Kind – Trips
When you hold unpaired hole cards you will flop two cards to go with one hole
card 1 in 74 times. This chapter deals with flopping trips (excluding trips on the
board).
Flopping trips is considerably more common than any of the big flops discussed in
the first four chapters. Remember you can flop trips with any unpaired hole cards,
whereas you require a suited hand to flop a flush or a connected hand to flop a
straight. Trips differs from a set in that you must be holding a pocket pair to hit a set
and unpaired cards to hit trips.
The hand values of flopping trips and flopping a set are identical: they are both
three of a kind. For a variety of reasons though, flopping a set is far stronger than
flopping trips. There are always benefits when you use both of your hole cards to
make a strong hand.
First and foremost, a set is disguised well and trips is not. Every time you hit trips
there is a paired board which warns opponents against committing too many chips
to the pot.
Second, when you flop trips your hand is more vulnerable to being beaten eg you
can be outkicked or you can be up against a full house on the flop.
Third, paired boards are dry and there is only one other card available for your
opponent(s) to connect with.
Ultimately, flopping a set is around 2.5x more profitable than flopping trips and you
should be far less committed to trips:
SPR (Stack to Pot Relative Risk Trips on Flop -
Ratio) Committed?
0-3 Very low Yes
4-6 Low Yes
7-10 Medium 75%
11-14 High 40%
15+ Very high No

Trips is still a big flop and for the most part you can follow similar betting patterns

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as outlined in the previous chapters. There will be more occasions, however, when
you will want to bet out after the flop.
There are two types of trips: high trips and low trips. I want to show an example of
each as there are small differences between the hands. High trips is slightly more
secure as it cannot be overtaken as easily, but if it is a high card it may be less
disguised. Conversely low trips is slightly less secure, but may be more disguised.
In terms of profit, high trips makes around 5-10% more than low trips – not enough
for the distinction to mean much.
On the other hand the quality of your kicker is crucial. Having a good kicker
makes your hand about 30-40% more profitable. Always keep this is mind. The
weak kicker will make a difference in pots where there is a significant danger that
another opponent hit trips too. This will be more common when you have made
trips with a high card.
In the first example (high trips) I hold 56 diamonds and call a small raise in a
multi-way pot on level 1 of an SNG to see a flop of 3d 6s 6c (PS6 and SPR 9):

Note that this is not the type of flop I am trying to hit with this hand. Trips is strong
enough for me to be 100% committed in this situation, but I am very aware that my
kicker is weak.
The small blind and I check, the raiser bets pot-size, the small blind folds and I
check-call. This should all look very natural. I always consider leading the betting
in multi-way pots, but on this board there is very little an opponent can have
connected with, so giving one free card makes sense.
The turn card was 9c and I checked again. My opponent made an aggressive bet

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again, which effectively ended the hand as I shoved all-in and was quickly called.
He held 88 and was guilty of getting too committed to his hand with oversized bets.
It was clear from his strong turn bet that he likely held an overpair, so my decision
to commit to the hand was relatively simple.
Take a look at this second example in which I have completed the small blind on
level 1 of an SNG to see a cheap flop also with 56 diamonds (PS6 and SPR 24). I
flop low trips: 6c 6s Js

Once again this is not the flop I was looking for and with an SPR of 24 it is
definitely not a flop I am committed to.
There are several reasons why I choose to lead the betting here, which is a
deviation from a standard check. It will help to list the reasons. I recommend
committing them to memory:

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Although I am not the preflop raiser and my kicker is weak, all the other reasons
point towards leading the betting, the most significant being the fact that there are
multiple opponents. Leading the betting in spots like this can confuse opponents
into believing you hold just top pair or worse. This element of disguise can
sometimes reward you with a lot of chips.
The big blind called my bet and then min-raised the turn (7d):

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Many players make the mistake here of re-raising or shoving their hand. Low trips
weak kicker is not strong enough to commit to in high SPR situations. I sense a
significant danger when this opponent raises. It is unclear whether I am ahead or
behind and my plan is to call his raise and check-call the river as cheaply as
possible. The river was Jd and I could only hope to split the pot or beat a busted
draw. My opponent bet just 120 chips, which of course I check-called and he turned
over J6!
If you are playing with a poor kicker (which will often be the case in PS5 and PS6
when you may have entered the pot with a speculative hand) and an opponent is
showing strength on the turn or river, think carefully about his range and consider
slowing things down. If you are leading the betting choose normal bet sizes and do
not look to force an all-in. If you are responding to a raise, calling might be more
appropriate depending on your assessment of your opponent’s range. Folding is
entirely plausible too if you are confident that you are behind.
If you flop trips as the preflop defender and there is a single opponent, your first
postflop action should always be defensive (check or call). With two opponents,
you should consider all the other factors before making a choice. Neither is a clear
favourite. With more than two opponents, you ought normally to lead the betting or
make an aggressive play.
If you flop trips as the preflop aggressor in position (PS1), you can choose between
making a normal C-bet or, on dry boards against one opponent, checking behind. In
PS2 you ought normally to just call the donk-bet and in PS3 you can choose
between C-betting and checking. I tend to choose check when out of position as it
offers a small increase in profit levels. C-betting is not incorrect though. There are

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two, strong, alternative betting lines which you can choose from to suit the
circumstances.
Summary:
Be committed to flops with an SPR of 10 or less
Flopping trips is far weaker than flopping a set
Trips lacks disguise
The quality of your kicker is crucial to profitability
The number of opponents on the flop is key to determining your
aggression level
Learn the table of other reasons influencing your choice
Tend to follow similar philosophy (slow play most flops, get busy on the
turn)
Chapter 6: Trips on Board:
The odds of you encountering this particular flop are over 2500 to 1, so my analysis
of this will be brief. In some ways this type of flop ought to come much further
down the list of strong flops. Trips on board is a black sheep of high value flops.
Technically you have flopped trips on this type of board, but be under no illusion
that your hand is strong. You are vulnerable against opponents holding a pocket pair
or quads and if you do not hold an ace or a king your hand is almost worthless.
On dry boards, where players are likely to have missed the flop, aggression is
often a good strategy and that is true for these flops. The more aggressive you are,
the more likely you are to make your opponent fold. That does not mean that there is
no limit to the optimum aggression level as there is a risk/reward ratio which needs
balancing. That being said, most players fold too quickly in these classic Mexican
standoff situations, so in some situations you should explore some aggressive
moves.
On the flop, you should consider the following questions:

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Your high card is of huge importance and the SPR of much less importance here:
SPR (Stack to Pot Relative Risk Trips on Board -
Ratio) Committed?
0-3 Very low 40%
4-6 Low 25%
7-10 Medium No
11-14 High No
15+ Very high No

You certainly want to decide at the flop stage whether you have any interest in
going to showdown. It will hinge mainly on your perceived equity in the hand.
If the answer is no, then you will normally want to C-bet in PS1, raise (or call or
fold) in PS2, C-bet (or check-raise) in PS3, fold (or call or raise) in PS4, bet in

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PS5 and check-raise (or check-fold) in PS6.
The idea is that you are trying to shut the hand down, especially out of position.
Choose appropriate situations for aggressive plays, avoiding opponents with
narrow ranges. Try and put your opponent under pressure with clever bet-sizing,
investing a portion of your stack in a profitable bluff.
Most of the additional profit you can make from these types of flops lies in making
a single, aggressive postflop play. Your non-showdown winnings represent your
success in Mexican standoffs!
In position it is also possible to call bets at the flop stage and then start raising on
the turn (playing the hand as though you had quads). This works well against
advanced opponents, but it might require a significant investment and you would be
well advised to hold good overcards to add some value to your bluff.
A classic time when you might choose to just call on the flop is in blind on blind
situations when your opponent’s range is wide, you have position (PS4) and you
sense weakness. In this hand from a hyper-turbo, I call a small blind min-raise
holding K9 hearts in the big blind. The flop is 8s 8d 8c:

With an SPR of 4.5 I am certainly not committed to my hand; yet raising here might
push the hand towards an undesirable showdown. My opponent’s C-bet puts me
under considerable pressure, even in position. The only way to throw that pressure
back at my opponent without committing myself is to call the bet. Very few players
will risk double-barreling here without at least an ace in their hand, so calling
should provide me with the information I need. The turn card was Qd:

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After my opponent checked the turn, I was able to make a small bet which puts my
opponent in a decision for his tournament life. A bet of 40% is enough here. I can
still fold to a check-raise. My bet is going to have a very high success rate and
protects me nicely against his likely 12% shot (if he has 6 outs).
My opponent folded and I took down the pot on the turn.
In high and medium SPR situations you should never be committed to these flops. If
you hold a strong ace, then make normal bets of 40 to 60% of the pot and try to bet
at 2 streets rather than all 3. Attack on either the flop and turn, or the flop and
river, but not on all 3 streets unless you hold AK or AQ and have a good read on
your opponent.
Obviously if you turn or river a full house, you should reassess your commitment to
the hand, remaining on the lookout for that opponent who happened to flop quads!
If you are committed to your hand at the flop stage, you will have a low SPR and
normal bets will progress the hand towards showdown. You should try not to force
the issue with large bets and raises. Those bets are for finding information. If you
are committed you do not need the information, you just want to extract value.
Extracting maximum value on these flops means normal bet sizes on flop, turn and
river. You will rarely be up against any drawing hands, so forcing an all-in pre-
river makes no sense.
Summary:
Not a strong flop, beware!
On dry boards aggression is often a good strategy
Learn and use the table of questions

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 When possible
try and make at least one aggressive postflop play
Holding an
ace, attack with caution, betting at 2 out of 3 streets
Chapter 7: Top Two Pair
Flopping top two pair is considerably stronger than top and bottom or bottom two
pair. Much of the advice given in the chapters dealing with playing a set is also
relevant for this chapter. The main difference is that top two pair can be overtaken
in two additional ways – when an opponent makes two better pairs or trips.
If you are holding AK and flop two pair, your hand is just one rung down the ladder
from holding a set of deuces and is really very strong indeed. If the cards are
connected though, the board will be more co-ordinated, increasing the danger of an
opponent drawing to a straight.
SPR (Stack to Pot Relative Risk Top 2pair -
Ratio) Committed?
0-3 Very low Yes
4-6 Low Yes
7-10 Medium Yes
11-14 High Yes (beware very wet
flops)
15+ Very high Situational

Deciding whether to make a defensive or an aggressive bet on the flop is not at all
straightforward and there is no simple answer. Here is a reminder of the factors
involved:

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There are three reasons why you should tend to play top two pair slightly more
aggressively than a set. First, when you are holding top two pair there will
frequently be high cards, often connected high cards on the flop, which will
increase the wetness of the board and the danger that an opponent holds a draw.
Second, unless you hold specifically AK, there will be an additional danger (more
potent when you are not holding an ace) that an opponent could be drawing to two
better pairs. The table above (from the chapter on sets) has been slightly altered to
reflect this.
Third, if an opponent holds bottom pair, they can improve to make trips.
Remember that opponents holding draws will not have as much equity as they
expect as your hand can also improve to a full house. In deep-stacked situations in
particular this increases your chances of winning a massive pot and should make
you slightly more willing to flirt with danger by encouraging an opponent to stick
around.

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As the preflop raiser in position (PS1) a C-bet is certainly your default play, mainly
because it is what your opponent is expecting. If you remember the potential “No
C-bet” categories though, you should recall the second category “Big flops with
few dangers”. There are times when not C-betting is going to offer you significantly
more value than C-betting and I want to look at one such hand.
During a 6-max 18-man tournament I hold AQs and a loose player calls my preflop
raise to see a flop of Qh 9c Ad: (PS1 and SPR3)

Now although I am the preflop raiser, if you consider all the reasons for slow-
playing in the left-hand column of the table, you will notice that many of those are
apparent here. One of the most important factors is the profile of the villain. If my
opponent might view my failure to C-bet as weakness, then it is worth attempting to
slow-play this. If my opponent is a strong player, there is really no point in doing
anything out of the ordinary. In this case, I check behind and my opponent proceeds
to bluff away his entire stack with KTo.
Clearly there is some level of risk involved checking on a board that is not entirely
dry, but as always you need to consider the risk/reward ratio. Slow-playing big
hands against aggressive opponents pays off.
Opponents will tend to play very aggressively during late phases of tournaments,
especially heads-up, so slow-playing at these times is worth considering.
Playing top two pair as the raiser out of position (PS3) poses many of the same
issues. If you have many reasons to slow-play the hand, then being out of position
reinforces this. In this situation my C-bet percentage drops to around 50% and I
make more profit when I start with a check. This does not mean that a C-bet is
always wrong in this spot. You should look at all the factors first and then make

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your choice.
If there has been a donk-bet in front of you (PS2), you will need to choose between
calling and raising. Both options are going to be very profitable, but that fact does
not render the decision unworthy of deep consideration. Your tournament situation,
the texture of the board, the number of active opponents, their profiles, their likely
ranges, the effective stack size and the size of the donk-bet are some of the factors
which should influence your choice. Your postflop questioning drill will help you.
If you are not the preflop raiser and flop top two pair it will be less likely that you
are holding an ace and more likely that you are holding lower cards. If this is the
case, you should be less inclined to slow-play the hand. Being in position is going
to help you make more money.
If you are facing a C-bet (PS4), you can choose between calling and raising, once
again using the chart referenced earlier in this chapter to help with your decision.
Calling will tend to be more profitable.
If there has not been a C-bet (PS5), you should tend to make a bet unless you have
many reasons for slow-playing.
It is slightly more difficult in PS6. Check-calling and check-raising are the best
plays. Certainly I would always start with a check against a single opponent.
Leading the betting should be reserved for wet boards with multiple opponents. I
choose to lead the betting only when the need to protect my hand is very strong and
the potential exists for opponents to take a free drawing card.
Here is an example of when I would choose to lead out. I am on the big blind on
level 1 of a hyper-turbo holding T8s and 4 players see a flop of Ts 8d 6h: (PS6 PS6
PS5 and SPR5)

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After the small blind checks I lead out with a bet of half the pot. There is a strong
need to isolate and to prevent all 3 villains from getting a free turn card. In an
unraised pot, the chances that all players will check the flop is much higher than in
a raised pot where the preflop raiser will likely C-bet. When you are ahead in a
multi-way pot, even if the board is dry you need to consider carefully the risk of
being overtaken. Isolation is a key concept in No Limit Hold’em play.
In this hand, the cutoff called down all 3 streets and I doubled up against QTo.
Against top pair, I will always do well in this spot, but the important point is to
prevent drawing hands from getting free cards.
Summary:
Choosing between an aggressive/defensive action is not straightforward
Learn the table of factors and form your own questioning drill
Slow-play big hands against aggressive opponents
Try to prevent drawing hands from getting free cards

Chapter 8: Top and Bottom Pair

Top and bottom pair is still an extremely strong flop. It differs from flops in the
previous chapter in just a few small ways.
First, it can be overtaken more easily by an opponent making two better pairs,
especially if you do not hold an ace.
Second, if the board pairs up with a card higher than your bottom pair, you can find
yourself either splitting the pot or getting outkicked.

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Third, the chances are higher that an opponent who plays back against you is
holding the other pair (in this case the middle pair), which in turn increases the risk
that an opponent’s hand improves to trips or two better pair.
These may seem like small differences, but compounded they do cause a small, yet
significant decrease in your showdown value. As a result in most situations you
should look to play these flops slightly more aggressively to increase your non-
showdown potential winnings.
In super deep-stacked situations where you are not committed to the flop, you
should still make positive plays, but keep your bet sizes more modest and ensure
you know how you will react to different turn card scenarios. In short, have a plan.
SPR (Stack to Pot Relative Risk Top and Bottom Pair -
Ratio) Committed?
0-3 Very low Yes
4-6 Low Yes
7-10 Medium Yes
11-14 High 75%
15+ Very high Situational

In this example hand I am playing heads-up in position with an effective stack of

38BB holding A4o and have raised 2.5BB preflop. The villain called and we saw
a flop of 4s Ah Kc: (PS1 and SPR7)

Against an inexperienced opponent there may be a temptation not to C-bet to induce

a bluff, but for reasons already covered there is no point failing to C-bet against a

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competent player. Usually you will win a small pot if your opponent has neither an
ace nor a king and a bigger pot will be played if he has one of those cards. It is not
a good flop for the defender to attack or bluff at and the C-bet size you choose will
not alter that fact much. On this board I like to bet more when I am strong (here
80% pot size) and less when I am weak (50%). When I am committed to a hand, as
I am here, I tend to choose larger bet sizes on the flop as it does help you to get all
the chips in by the river card. The villain called, the turn card was Jd and he
checked again:

At this point in the hand I believe my opponent has a strong king or an ace, in which
case he has 2 outs or 3 outs, plus 6 more to split the pot. Occasionally, he will have
4 more outs with a straight draw. My commitment is 100%, so I am not concerned
about hands which have me beaten. I am thinking only about how to extract value
from Ax or Kx. I want to bet enough chips so that an all-in on the river becomes a
natural bet size. By choosing 1,000 chips, the pot will be 3,300 on the river with
2,150 remaining. This looks to be about optimum, although slightly less would
work too. Actually, the villain check-raised all-in, I called, he showed A9o and the
river was 2h.
If you are the raiser in position and are in doubt as to whether you should try a
slow-play, go with the C-bet. This is your default play and this will tend to work
best on these flops.
When you are facing a donk-bet on these flops, the same rules apply as from the
previous chapter. You will need to choose raise rather than call a slightly higher
percentage of the time in order to protect your hand, but you should be considering
all the same factors.

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Next I want to look at a hand played as the raiser out of position. It is level 1 of a
6-max SNG and I raise from the cutoff with ATo, am called by the button and big
blind and the flop is Ks Ts As: (PS3 and SPR7)

Taking a look at the table of reasons for an aggressive action versus a defensive
action, I notice that the first four are all indicating that I should C-bet. Normally on
a wet board your C-bet size should be around 70% of the pot. That is what I choose
to do here.
So far we have not examined many very wet boards and postflop play on such flops
is notoriously difficult. You should feel a struggle between conflicting ideals.
There is a desire to protect the hand against drawing hands and a need to isolate to
one opponent; yet there is also a desire to keep the pot smaller on monotone boards
to avoid going broke against a player holding a flush. The solution is never perfect,
but I recommend prioritizing isolation first, then slowing down if necessary.
This bet was called by the button and the big blind folded. The turn card was 7c
and I checked. If my opponent checked behind me I would make a bet at any river
card, but actually he bet out and I just flat-called, hoping to avoid going broke
against a made hand. It helped that my opponent was fairly aggressive. Check-

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calling can be a good solution against aggressive players. The river card was 2h:
It is a good river card for me and it is worth considering whether I should be value-
betting the river or check-calling to catch a bluff. If my opponent holds a hand such
as AJ, KT or A2 a value-bet is going to be the best play, but if he has KJ, QT or any
kind of missed draw, then a check-call will be best. You need to consider how
often he will be holding each type of hand. You also need to think about hands
which have you beaten. His play has been consistent with a made hand, flush or
straight. Check-calling against these hands will save a few chips. Try and break
down river-betting decisions in this manner to help you choose the right option.
I believe he is holding a missed draw or a made hand considerably more often than
he is holding an ace or two pair and for that reason I choose to check-call the river.
He showed 82s and I “succeeded” in not losing my entire stack. Improving your
postflop play is not just about the chips you win, but also the chips you do not
throw away.
If you are not the raiser in position facing a C-bet (PS4) holding top and bottom
pair, you should normally flat-call the C-bet. A wet board might make a raise more
attractive, but most of the time you are going to want to just call the first bet. Most
of these situations will be short-handed or blind on blind (you should seldom be
flat-calling preflop with an unconnected low card) when your opponent’s range
will be quite wide. As a result you will often be a long way ahead and there will
be no pressing need to protect the hand by raising. You can delay an aggressive
action until the turn card.
If you are not the raiser in position and there is no bet in front of you (PS5), you are
probably not going to win a big pot, but unless you have a strong reason not to bet
(perhaps a very dry board and a super-aggressive opponent), you ought to lead out.

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Finally, the most interesting situation (PS6) occurs quite frequently because of
limped pots, often when you are sat in one of the blinds. These are often deep-
stacked spots and building the pot is one of your main priorities. My database
analysis indicates that check-raising is superior to check-calling and that donk-
betting or leading out is the least successful action.
In shorter-stacked situations though there will be times when check-calling is
clearly superior, so the effective stack size should play a key role in your decision.
I want to give an example of when a check-raise is appropriate. Here, it is the
beginning of an SNG and I see a limped flop from the big blind holding 92o. The
flop is 2c 9c 5h: (PS6 and SPR29)

After I start with a check, the villain makes an oversized bet at the pot. This is a
sign of strength. Often when players make oversized bets they are quite strong,
but would also like you to fold. The higher the bet size (in this case 200% of the
pot), the higher their commitment level is. Top pair or a good draw are likely hands
here, both of which I am happy to gamble against. An opponent holding a set is far
less likely to risk losing action by betting so much. As a result of this thinking, I
choose to check-raise here, knowing that I have good equity against his likely
holdings and knowing that he is going to find it hard to fold. Check-calling is
simply less profitable.
Notice that my check-raise size is also large. I usually check-raise to 2.5x my
opponent’s bet, which is often around the pot size, but in this situation I want to
build the pot quickly so I choose slightly more. The villain called and the turn card

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was 3s:
This is a good card for me and I am now committed to this hand, so I am not going
to concern myself about hands which have me beaten. If I am behind at this moment
then I will likely lose my stack, but based on my understanding of my opponent’s
actions I do not believe I am behind very often. All my attention is on how to get the
remaining chips in the middle. Either I stagger 2 bets of around 600 chips across
the turn and river or I put them all-in on the turn. My advice in this type of situation
is to ask yourself what percentage of the time your opponent is holding a drawing
hand. If there is a strong risk that this is the case, it makes more sense to simply
shove all-in right now, which is what I choose (X/XR/B). This premature-looking
shove is often appropriate when you know you are out of position and you know
that folding to a dangerous river card is going to be tricky.
Let us assume my opponent is holding 67clubs. He would have 15 outs, which
gives him almost a 1 in 3 chance of hitting the river card. If I only bet 600 chips on
the turn, he can call 600 to win an implied effective pot of 1,830 as he is going to
get my chips on the river. I would be giving him good odds to call. If I go all-in, he
has to call 1,160 to win 1,830 which gives him the wrong odds to call, but only
just.
In fact, my opponent called in this hand and showed A3c, drawing to 12 outs on the
flop (45%) and 14 outs on the turn (30%). The river was 5d and I doubled up. If
you are fairly certain an opponent has just top pair or a small number of outs,
staggering your bets will be more profitable.
When you are out of position on the turn and are committed to a pot, this kind of
decision will take place frequently. You need to ensure you protect your hand by
ensuring you take away your opponent’s drawing odds. These decisions are

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made more straightforward by being certain of your commitment to the pot and
having a knowledge of basic pot odds.
Returning to the choice between check-calling and check-raising, remember that
check-calling has many advantages. If you are not deep-stacked, you have just one
opponent, the board is dry or your opponent has a high aggression factor, these are
all good reasons for concealing the strength of your hand a little longer. You can
always get busy on the turn with a surprise turn bet or a check-raise. There will
also be situations where leading out is entirely correct; the example hand T8h in the
previous chapter is an example of a multi-way, limped pot on a fairly wet board
where checking first is a risk not worth taking.
Summary:
Similar to the previous chapter, slightly more aggressive to compensate
for added danger
Choose larger bet sizes when committed to these type of flops
Prioritize isolation first on very wet boards
An oversized bet indicates a good hand, but an opponent who wants you
to fold – attack!
Protect your hand by taking away your opponent’s drawing odds
Understand your commitment level to the pot
Have a knowledge of basic pot odds

Chapter 9: Bottom two pair

At the beginning of the previous chapter I outlined the reasons why top and bottom
pair can be overtaken more easily than top pair. These risks are multiplied once
again when you flop bottom two pair. This hand is notorious for getting
overtaken and in deep-stacked situations or multi-way pots you should aim to
protect the hand, whilst considering carefully your opponents’ ranges and actions.
There may be times when you need to make a good laydown against tight opponents
showing a lot of aggression.
In shorter-stacked situations it is usually going to be appropriate to play these flops
aggressively. Their showdown equity is rarely as strong as you perceive it to be, so
making your opponents fold postflop is often desirable. In short: you should avoid
slow-playing these flops unless you have a really strong reason to do so.
SPR (Stack to Pot Relative Risk Bottom 2P Committed?
Ratio)
0-3 Very low Yes
4-6 Low Yes

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 7-10 Medium 85%
11-14 High Situational
15+ Very high No

If you are the preflop raiser then C-betting and double-barreling is the default play,
both in and out of position. If the turn card is particularly scary after a wet flop,
there may be times when you want to keep the pot smaller, but try and keep betting,
so you gather more information from your opponent(s).
In this hand I raise with KJo from the hijack during the early stages of an SNG and
am called by a solid player in the big blind. The flop is Kc Ac Jd (PS1 and SPR8)
and I C-bet around 80% of the pot, which is fairly standard on a board as wet as
this. The big blind elects to call, indicating that he either has an ace, a flush draw or
a combination of a pair and a draw. The turn card is 6d:

My opponent checks again on the flop and I have every reason to double-barrel. I
need to protect the hand against the draws and extract value from Ax. My bet size is
larger than average to achieve these two goals. Often when you are playing
bottom two pair it will be smart to choose large bet sizes.
He called again and the river card was 4h:

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When a player only calls on the turn on such a wet board and then checks the river,
it is unlikely he is particularly strong. I would expect an opponent to have check-
raised either on the flop or turn if he is holding a set or two pair. I need to break
down what my opponent’s likely hand range is at this point, so I can decide whether
to value bet the river.
I do not believe he is holding a premium set, since he would have 3bet preflop and
raised by the turn. Even hands such as AJ or QT do not seem very likely, given his
failure to raise at any point. On the other hand AQ, AT and possibly weaker aces
are all still in his range and hands such as QJ of clubs. On this analysis, it seems
that another bet will have good value. I could go for the remaining 638 chips, which
would be a natural amount or I could choose a slightly smaller amount, in this case
420. To work out which is more profitable, let us try my favourite method of
working out how often each bet gets called:
Bet size (percentage of Percentage of Calls Extra Chips Won
pot) (estimated)
638 chips (ALL) 50% 319
420 chips (66%) 75% 315

The accuracy of this method depends on the accuracy of your estimate as to how
likely the opponent is to call. In this situation I think he is holding an ace more often
than he is holding a missed draw. When he holds a missed draw, he folds every
time, but if he holds just Ax, he might call another bet and the pot odds needed for
calling do not really change much (638 at 4:1 or 420 at 5:1) so my bet size ought
not to influence him much.

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In reality choosing a slightly smaller bet size and leaving an opponent with a few
chips does make a difference. He will call the smaller bet size more often even
when the pot odds are similar. This is a psychological factor that is proven.
Humans do not make decisions purely based on mathematical odds. Indeed if you
look at the table above you will notice that despite the higher percentage of calls
for my smaller bet size, it was still less profitable (on average) than going for the
maximum. Based on this logic, I ought to have gone all-in.
Nevertheless when the villain called he showed A5 hearts. This is exactly the type
of hand that he might have folded had I actually gone all-in and a surprisingly weak
hand to call out of position with on all four streets.
When you flop bottom two pair it will very often be in PS6 and often in an unraised
pot. In a multi-way pot leading out will always be the right play. Against just one
opponent, it is more complicated.
In this example hand I complete the small blind with 89o to see a 3-handed cheap
flop of 8d Jd 9s during the early stages of an SNG (PS6 and SPR6). I lead out with
a strong bet hoping to isolate or to take down the pot and the cutoff calls. The turn
card is the Ts:

It is important that whenever a scare card drops you remember that that card is
probably scaring your opponent too. The natural response to this type of card is to
try and check-call your way through the hand. In a way that is what I try to achieve
here, but instead of checking I choose to make an undersized bet, also known as a
blocking bet.
A blocking bet normally achieves four things. First, it forces your opponent to
choose from three options rather than two and makes it less likely that you will

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relinquish control of the hand on this street.
Second, not really important here, is that it gives your opponent the option of
folding, giving you fold equity.
Third, by making a bet yourself you are exercising control of the pot size, rather
than checking and letting your opponent choose (of course he can also choose to
raise, but the point is that he will very frequently make the lazy call).
Fourth, if your opponent does choose to raise, your small bet size will sometimes
influence his raise size, making it smaller. Opponents often default to 2.5x or 3x
your bet, rather than working off the size of the pot and the remaining effective stack
(which they ought to do). As a result, the pot is often no bigger after your
opponent’s raise and your call than had you made a larger bet and been flat-called.
Skilled opponents might see through this, but it is remarkable how often villains
will simply flat-call the bet, allowing you to do something similar on the river or
simply to check-call without losing a monster pot.
What needs to be understood is that there is a delicate balance here between
conflicting ideals. A normal bet size is in many ways superior in that it conveys
strength and is more effective as a value bet. Check-calling is the most obvious
play for keeping the pot smaller out of position. The blocking bet could be viewed
as simply a happy medium, but in reality it is slightly better than that as it achieves
many of the benefits of both conflicting ideals.
My opponent flat-called my bet and the river was 9c:

Whenever you flop a set or two pair, there is always improved value playing
against a drawing hand. There are two reasons for this. Firstly, your raw equity

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will nearly always be high at around 70% and secondly, your implied odds of
making a huge pot are good since your hand can improve to a full house at the same
time as an opponent hits a straight or a flush. That is what happens here. I do not
have a great read on my opponent’s hand, so I stick to a half pot-sized bet in the
hope that I will be raised. He did raise and it turned out that he was holding KQo
and I won a big pot.
If I had not improved to a full house and my opponent had made the same shove, I
would consider this an easy fold.
Wet boards are always difficult to play. Prioritize isolation first, then try and strike
a good balance between continued aggression and defence. The blocking bet can
provide a useful middle road.
If you find yourself flopping bottom two pair in PS6 with just one opponent, you
will have to choose between leading out and check-raising (or occasionally check-
calling). Leading out is the less risky of the two plays, but not necessarily the better
option.
If there is a strong risk of your opponent checking behind you then you should lead
out. When you make your choice you should consider: your tournament situation;
the texture of the flop; your opponent’s range; his likelihood of having
connected with the board; and his C-bet percentage, postflop aggression factor
and WTSD%.
If the pot has been raised preflop, you should be more inclined to start with a
check, but if the board is particularly wet, then a donk-bet will be preferable.
Small, subtle differences can influence this decision and the expected value from
each play is similar.
Remember if there is any element of doubt when playing bottom two pair in any
situation, tend to opt for the aggressive route and give adequate protection to
your hand.
Summary:
This hand is notorious for getting overtaken – cautious aggression with
high SPRs
Avoid slow-playing when unnecessary
With medium and low SPRs choose bet sizes close to pot size; force to
showdown
In PS6, lead out in multi-way pots
Blocking bets can be useful when you are battling conflicting ideals
When in doubt, choose an aggressive option

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 Part 6 – Lower Value Flops Playing with No Pocket Pair
Chapter 10: Two Pair (Top Pair and Paired Board)
This is a flop which looks more attractive than it is. You are often
going to win a small pot and occasionally win or lose a large pot. If an
opponent has you outkicked or hits trips, it is easy to lose a lot of
money. Also, most boards are going to be fairly dry, so if you are
ahead already you are likely to stay ahead. For these reasons, it does
not make sense to build the pot by betting strong or raising. Your
betting decisions will be influenced by all the normal factors, but with
a leaning towards defence. A good tip to remember here is you should
generally choose a passive option on one of the three postflop streets.
Finding good boundaries for assessing your commitment level with
varying SPRs is not easy, especially for this type of flop where, when
challenged, you will have to make a read on an opponent. Your
reading of your opponent should influence you more than this table,
but being aware of the SPR is still a critical part of your postflop
decision-making.
SPR (Stack to Pot Relative Risk 2P (TP+PB)
Ratio) Committed?
0-3 Very low Yes
4-6 Low 65%
7-10 Medium 10%
11-14 High No
15+ Very high No

The size of your top pair and also your kicker make a big
difference too. The higher the value of your cards, the more willing
you should be to commit to a hand.
In PS1 the default play will be to make a C-bet. Occasionally,
however, when my top pair is an ace or a king and I have one loose
opponent, I like to check behind. It fits into my “No C-bet” category
number 2: Big Flops with few dangers. Of course this is not a
particularly big flop, but crucially it is difficult to be overtaken if you
are already ahead.

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The idea is that your opponent will most likely have nothing at all and
if you continue to bet, you will lose potential action that you welcome.
The reason you welcome the action is that very little can go wrong. I
like to ask myself “How likely am I to be ahead?” (on the flop) and
“How likely am I to be ahead at showdown?” If the answer to these
two questions is similar, then there is no harm in deviating from
standard strategy if the potential advantages outweigh the
disadvantages. To illustrate exactly what I mean let me give an
example. Having raised from the button with AKo and been called by
the big blind, we see a flop of 5d Kh 5c: (PS1 and SPR6)

The SPR is nearly 6 and in this situation I am committed to the hand.

When my opponent checks the flop my C-bet will force him to fold a
huge percentage of the time. As such the C-bet registers a nice, healthy
profit and those who C-bet 100% of flops go on believing that C-
betting is always right.
In fact, not C-betting registers more profit in this situation.
Let me consider the risk factor in not C-betting. Assuming my
opponent holds a pocket pair (which is certainly not every time), there
is a 4% chance that my opponent will turn a full house and my giving
of a free card could cost a lot of chips. Or he could hold Kx and has a
6% chance of turning a stronger 2 pair. These are the only two ways he
is going to overtake me on the turn and neither of these are likely to be

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defended against by C-betting (indeed C-betting simply serves to build
up the pot).
So really there is very little risk in not C-betting. The only real reason
for C-betting is if C-betting offers more value and profit than not C-
betting. In this situation it does not offer more profit. Give a free card
and get busy on the turn.
In this hand I checked behind and we saw 4d. My opponent made a
large bet which I flat-called, the river was Tc and my opponent bluffed
all-in:

Whilst this was not the most glorious of plays from my opponent, this
is still a good illustration of why mock displays of weakness can be
appropriate when risk factors are low. Not C-betting in this type of
spot makes huge amounts of money against aggressive players,
especially when they hit a card on the turn or river.
First give your opponent the opportunity to bluff or catch a card,
then ram home your advantage.
You should be far less inclined to follow this alternative line when
there are overcards that can hurt you, but against very aggressive
opponents, it is worth considering this strategy. However, if your top
pair is a jack or below you should be C-betting.
In PS2, calling is correct. Continue to call unless you want to push

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towards a showdown or you believe your opponent is drawing. In
those situations you may prefer to raise on the turn. In high SPR
situations you may be forced into tricky spots when trying to
differentiate between an opponent also holding top pair and one
holding two pair or higher. Consider your opponent’s betting carefully
and try to avoid the pot getting too bloated.
In PS3, the same two strategies should be employed as is the case in
PS1. Generally C-bet unless your top pair is above a jack and then you
might consider not C-betting. Once again, my database analysis
confirms that when my top pair is a high card, checking first is more
profitable (check-calling). The option you choose will also depend
heavily on how aggressive your opponent is postflop.
The more passive an opponent is, the more necessary the C-bet is.
In PS4 you are facing a continuation bet from the aggressor and on
these boards it never really makes sense to raise. You will make more
money just calling. On wet boards there may be times when a raise is
justified, but rarely will it be superior to flat-calling.
In PS5 you are faced by a similar situation as that which was discussed
for PS1. The default play will be to make a bet. Most of the time you
will not be strong enough to justify slow-playing your hand and it will
be more profitable to bet. In PS5 I do not recommend deviating from
this line very often, unlike in PS1 where there are plenty of times
when not C-betting will be useful.
In this hand, I am sat with 65 spades as the big stack in a 3-man
bubble of a 6-max SNG. The loose small stack limps from the small
blind and I check the big blind to see a flop of 5d 4d 4s: (PS5 and
SPR3)

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The loose player checks the flop and I lead out with a standard half
pot-sized bet. A check-raise all-in ensues. You may or may not look at
this and see an easy call. You might note that the SPR is only just over
3 and there are lots of drawing hands in my opponent’s range. What is
important is that you learn to analyse the dynamics of the hand
before arriving at a conclusion.
In volume one I discussed the process of calling an all-in using pot
odds. There are 3 stages to this, which can be expressed as questions:
“What is his range? What is my equity? What equity is required to
justify calling?” If you focus on those questions, this difficult and
crucial part of the game will get easier.
When assessing this villain’s range, I note that his aggression factor is
low and he might be described as a mouse. These types of players
rarely check-raise all-in with nothing. There is a fair chance he is a
long way ahead. I plugged in a solid range into an equity calculator
and discovered I had around 49% equity. My pot odds tell me I need at
least 36% to justify calling, therefore I have clearly positive expectation
and should of course call, which I did. He showed AQo and my hand
held.
Many players looking at this might assume that they have positive
equity calling the all-in. It is actually very close. It is far better to do a
calculation than to make an assumption. That way you learn for next

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time.
Imagine equity calculations as a ten thousand piece jigsaw puzzle. The
more pieces you have filled in, the easier it becomes to see the bigger
picture. Only those players who can see that big picture clearly ought
to be making these decisions on auto-pilot; everyone else would
benefit from doing the calculation.
As is often the case, PS6 presents more of a challenge when it comes
to finding the most profitable betting line. In multi-way pots donk-
betting is worth consideration, especially if your high card is lower
than a queen. The reason is that there is a risk, especially in a limped
pot, that all players will check the flop and your opponents all receive
a free card to overtake you.
In multi-way pots the risk of being overtaken for free is high. It is
lower against a single opponent. On the other hand, leading the betting
out of position exposes you to the possibility of losing a huge pot or at
least putting you in a bad spot. Overall check-calling is my favourite
option.
Check-raising makes little sense in situations when you have a
marginal holding and are unlikely to improve. This is particularly true
in high SPR situations, either cash games or early in tournaments.
Whichever postflop scenario you are in, you will sometimes encounter
an aggressive response from an opponent which you should sit and
think about immediately. If there is considerable risk of running into
trips or an overpair, do not be afraid to fold.
Consider your level of commitment to the hand and the pot odds and
try to make an early decision, preferably at the flop stage. Calling a
raise is normally wrong!
If your opponent is loose or likes to target dry boards for aggressive
plays, stick around, but be prepared to trust your read as you may be
forced into some tough choices on the turn and river.
A final note on this topic - your kicker is of huge importance. If it
seems too risky and your kicker is weak, folding is not a crime.
Summary:

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 This flop looks more attractive than it is; a degree of caution is
recommended
Consider a defensive action on one of the three postflop streets
The strength of your pair and kicker should influence your commitment
level
In PS1 & 3 NOT C-betting can be more profitable than C-betting when
top pair is high
In PS6, check-calling is normal, but consider the donk-bet in multi-way
pots
Be prepared to fold or slow down if your opponent shows strength
Chapter 11: Two Pair (Bottom Pair and Paired Board)
These flops have many similarities with those of the previous chapter,
but they are even more vulnerable to being attacked, overtaken and
also to opponents’ pocket pairs. For these reasons, they are
considerably less profitable.
The general betting lines and advice from the previous chapter are
identical, but your willingness to commit or to do battle with an
opponent showing strength should be lower.
SPR (Stack to Pot Relative Risk 2P (BP+PB)
Ratio) Committed?
0-3 Very low Yes
4-6 Low 40%
7-10 Medium 5%
11-14 High No
15+ Very high No

Once again the SPR table is a guide only. Remember that you will tend
to lose the big pots you play on these flops, so you have to show
caution against aggressive opponents. Most of the chips you win
will be small pots, uncontested after the flop. The value of going to
showdown will often be poor.
When you do encounter aggression try and consider the profile of
your opponent. An aggressive opponent will attack this type of board
routinely with nothing – it is a great board to attack. I want to give two
examples of how to react to counter play on these boards.

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In the first one I am playing in an SNG bubble as the middle of three
stacks. It is an extremely ICM intense scenario. The big stack raises
from the small blind and I call in position with K9 hearts, creating an
SPR of just less than 6. The flop is Jd Jc 9d, the villain checks, putting
me in PS5. I make a normal half pot-sized bet and am faced by an
almighty check-raise all-in:

To call with +EV I need to be able to win 42% of the time, but because
of the dynamics of the bubble I actually need to be able to win
considerably more often than that. The same issues affect my
opponent’s decision-making as our stacks are comparable. The risk he
takes in going all-in is huge and he is a fairly cautious player, which
makes me believe he has more than just a 9. He likely holds a good
draw, but maybe even a jack. Although I might have +EV and even
positive equity, this is not good enough to justify calling in an SNG
bubble. Even if I held a jack, calling would be only marginally correct!
For this reason, I folded and kept my tournament life intact.
The next hand is entirely different. I am sat on the big blind on hand 1
of an SNG holding T8o. The hijack limps, the small blind completes
and the flop comes Jc Jh Tc: (PS6, PS5 and SPR24)

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In PS6 I tend to lead out in these spots when there is no true aggressor
(no raiser preflop) and I have more than one opponent. Here, I
particularly wish to lead out as the small blind has already checked and
I am in PS5 against him. I bet 40% of the pot, which is slightly less
than optimum as the board is draw heavy. Nevertheless my bet gains
information and does not build up the pot too much.
Whenever more than one opponent calls on a flop like this, the
situation is not good. The turn card brought Kc and the small blind
checked. This card is a disaster for my hand and the risks of betting
again outweigh the rewards. I checked and the hijack also checked.
The river was Ts:

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Although I now hold a full house, there is still a possibility that one of
my opponents has a jack, so in the early stages of an SNG caution is
advisable here. The small blind led out with a bet of 100 chips and I
am faced with the choice of raising or calling. Raising may scare away
both players if they hold a king, or even a flush, and would put me in
an awkward spot if either opponent re-raised. Cautiously, I opted to
call, the big blind also called. The hijack showed AA and the small
blind showed 98c.
Actually I would have made more money had I raised on the river, but
that does not mean that raising is the correct play. I invest very few
chips in the pot, listen to my opponents’ bets, show due caution
throughout and avoid losing a big pot. This is the right mentality for
the early stages of an SNG and the right mentality for this type of flop.
Summary:
This flop looks more attractive than it is; caution is recommended
You will tend to win small pots, but risk losing big ones
Try to exercise a degree of pot control by keeping it smaller
Show caution when faced by counter play; folding is sometimes required
If more than one opponent shows strength, be extra careful
Chapter 12: Top Pair (Top Kicker)
The next three chapters should be studied together. Top pair is a very common flop
and extremely important. I have divided the chapters up based on kicker strength,

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but as always you will need to pay close attention to all of the other factors,
including the postflop scenario (PS1 to PS6) and the SPR (stack to pot ratio). This
chart will help you determine how committed you should be to these flops:
SPR (Stack to Pot Relative Risk TPTK Committed?
Ratio)
0-3 Very low Yes
4-6 Low 90%
7-10 Medium 20%
11-14 High No
15+ Very high No

Top pair top kicker is a very strong flop in No Limit Hold’em as opposed to other
formats of poker. They are like gold in short-stacked situations, but more dangerous
in deeper-stacked situations. Cash game players should play them far more
cautiously than tournament players because they will generally be confronted with
higher SPRs. I am going to discuss how to play them broken down into our six
postflop scenarios, focusing mainly on the first three as predominantly you will be
the preflop raiser.
In PS1 you should always be making a C-bet. As always the size of the optimum C-
bet will depend slightly on the number of opponents and the texture of the board,
but not really on the strength of your hand. It will also vary according to the
tournament situation, the effective stack size, the texture of the board and the
specific opponent you are facing.
Many players find that maintaining the same C-bet size makes it impossible for
opponents to read them. This is of course true, but then they sacrifice the benefit of
optimal C-bet sizes. If there is sufficient subtlety in your variations, it is unlikely
that even the few players tracking your C-bet sizes will be able to interpret their
meanings. Generally in PS1 there is no need to bet more than 40% on a dry board
and around 66% on a wet board.
If your C-bet is called you will frequently need to make another bet on the turn to
protect your hand and extract value. You should spend some time considering
whether your opponent has a drawing hand or just a pair. Does your opponent have
3 outs, 5 outs, 8 outs, 9 outs or more? Ideally you should have a concept of the
average (the mean) number of outs your opponent has, so you can then translate that
into an optimum bet size on the turn. Let me expand on this:

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Realistically these types of calculations are not going to happen whilst you are
playing, but I strongly recommend following the mathematics behind this, so that
you understand the thinking behind my recommended turn bet sizes.
You always want these numbers working in your favour, so it is important to
bet considerably more than the equilibrium, expressed in the third column here as
the “correct” calling odds or the point at which calling becomes equal EV.
There are two reasons for this: first, you want the gamble on the turn itself to favour
you; and second, whenever someone is drawing and there is future betting (the
river), they have the benefit of knowing when they have hit the river and extracting
additional value from the final street. How many times have you lost a big pot to an
opponent who has overpaid to see a draw and then forced you into giving up lots of
chips on the river? It is important to bet more whilst you are ahead to compensate
for this inevitable advantage your opponent will have on the river.
To simplify this I suggest dividing the situations up into three types. First, spots

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where you think your opponent has very few outs and is unlikely to be drawing. In
these cases, you can confidently bet just 40% of the pot and that will more than
suffice.
Second, spots where you think your opponent may have a decent draw, or a pair
plus a draw. In these cases, you can choose 50% as a bet size.
Third, spots where you believe your opponent has a good draw. If you are sure he
has not made a big hand already, you might choose a huge bet, otherwise go for
60% of the pot. If you are not deep-stacked, you should also consider all-in as an
option.
There are of course our other familiar variables. If you are thinking through those
postflop questions, you will also be considering your tournament situation and your
opponents’ profiles. You may still need to isolate to one player, in which case a
larger bet may be necessary. If an opponent seems to be a “calling station”,
increase the size of your bet accordingly.
In high SPR situations you may sometimes want to use the turn as a place to
exercise pot control (R/B/X) by checking behind. This keeps pots smaller when
you are concerned by your opponent’s profile and likely hand strength.
In this example I have raised with AQo from the cutoff and been called by a loose
player on the big blind. The flop was 3s Qs Td: (PS1 and SPR3)

As you can see, despite a wet board I opt for a C-bet size of just 50%. You could
argue that against a really loose player I should keep all my bet sizes higher when I
am strong, but given that the SPR is small, I definitely want to invite a gamble here.
Really loose players sometimes call smaller bet sizes just to pick up some kind of

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draw, especially when they have a nice big stack, so scaring them off at the flop
stage is not always optimum. If I were deeper-stacked, I may have opted for a
larger bet size.
The villain called and the turn was 9h:

This time, he leads with a probe bet of just 30 chips. This kind of bet is often a sign
that an opponent wants to see the next card cheaply and would also be happy for a
fold. It is a glorified check, bringing with it some underrated benefits, but it
indicates to me that my opponent may have a few outs at this point. It could also be
a trap, which is worth mentioning, but given my commitment to the hand, this does
not really matter here. I need to choose whether to stagger normal bets across the
turn and river or whether to push all-in right now. I believe that there is a
significant risk my opponent is drawing with 10 outs or more and it is in my best
interests to force his hand now. Loose players often call anyway.
This time, he called and showed 78 diamonds, missed the river (Ad) and doubled
me up.
I want to show one more example of PS1. In this hand, I raise with AKo from the
hijack and am called by the big blind. The flop is dry 5h Kc 7d (SPR4) and my C-
bet of just less than 50% of the pot is check-raised by the villain:

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This is actually quite a good board to check-raise as a bluff or semi-bluff, so I am
not certain that my opponent is strong. If he is holding a genuine hand eg KQ or 55,
he will either be a long way ahead or a long way behind so we are bound to end up
all-in.
When he is strong, the betting pattern is no longer important and this is a useful
realisation. It is all those other hands he might be holding which I should be
focused on eg 88, A7, 78, 68, or even just a random hand like JT. If I re-raise, I
lose value. Flat-calling in position is clearly more profitable as it gives him the
opportunity of throwing more chips at the turn and getting himself committed to the
pot.
In PS1, if an opponent shows aggression, it is usually correct to allow them to
take over the betting at least for one street and react by just flat-calling.
I called, the turn was Jh, but my opponent then checked the turn. Failing to bet
behind a check-raise is usually a mistake and often a sign of weakness. In this
situation, I am disappointed that he has checked, but I have no choice but to bet out
at the turn. I bet just over half the pot, he called and the river was Kh:

207
The river now plays itself as my opponent calls my all-in showing A5o and pays
the full price for calling with a sub-standard hand.
In PS2, there has been a donk-bet into you, so you need to assess what that bet
means. You should be asking what his calling range was preflop and how often this
player donk-bets. If a good player donk-bets and you know he has a low donk-bet
percentage (0-5%), then you should be proceeding very cautiously indeed. Whether
you call or raise the donk-bet will depend on the size of the bet and the texture of
the flop. Both options are very credible.
The other factor that warrants consideration is the size of the top pair. If the top pair
is an ace or king, there is no risk that an overcard can fall on the turn or river, so
your showdown equity will inevitably be higher.
If you happen to be holding top pair top kicker when the high card is a queen or
below, there is a risk that you could be overtaken simply by an overcard dropping
on the turn or river. That risk increases as the value of your top pair decreases. Try
to keep your bet sizes consistent with the texture of the board rather than the rank of
the top pair. Against loose opponents though, a small increase in your bet size will
pay dividends.
In this next hand, I have raised from the cutoff with A9o and been called by both the
blinds to see a flop of 2s 9h 3d (PS1, PS1 and SPR10). The small blind checked
and the big blind led with a strong donk-bet:

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Getting too committed to just top pair can be a huge mistake, but against loose
opponents failing to protect it can be an even worse mistake. In this spot I am
concerned about hands which have me beaten already, but I think there is a strong
likelihood I am a long way ahead. I do not want to flat-call here with 2 active
opponents. Isolate first unless you have a good reason not to. Choosing a large
raise forces the small blind into a decision for his tournament life and builds up the
pot against the big blind, who could quite easily call along with top pair or worse.
Against a stronger opponent I would recommend a smaller raise, so you do not get
committed and can escape from hands such as 22. The SPR at the flop stage is 10,
which is normally far too high to commit to just one pair, but the extremely loose
nature of my opponents convinced me to take the risk. The big blind called and the
turn was Jh:

209
Once again the big blind led, but this time with a small bet of 100. I am committed
to the hand despite the dangerous Jh, so I need to consider what the likelihood is
that my opponent is drawing and if so, what is the mean number of outs he is likely
to hold. If I believe he is drawing a high percentage of the time, I should go all-in
right now on the turn. If I believe he may be calling along with top pair or worse, I
should stagger the bets across turn and river. The board was fairly dry on the flop
and so although he could hold precisely 45, there are very few likely drawing
hands here, so I proceed to stagger my bets, both of which were called and I won a
huge pot against Q9o.
If you compare the turn decision in this hand with the first example hand from this
chapter (AQ), you will see how beneficial it is to put your opponent on a
drawing hand or on top pair. You will not always get it right, no-one does, but you
will improve through practice. Never stop practicing putting an opponent on a
hand or a range.
In PS2, you need to choose between calling and raising the donk-bet. Against just
one opponent, calling can be more profitable, especially if there is no urgent need
to build up the size of the pot. In this example, I have raised with AKs and been
called by a loose player on the small blind with a donk-bet percentage of 100%.
The flop is 4c Kd Jc (PS2 and SPR7)

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In the last example, I held a vulnerable top pair, had two active opponents and
wanted to build up the pot, but in this example, I have the strongest top pair, a
single opponent and a mild desire to build up the pot. Added to that I also have a
draw, which encourages me to call rather than raise. Seeing another card in
position is a very attractive proposition here as far more good things can happen
than bad things. Calling is going to be more profitable than raising. The turn card
was 8s and the villain led with a small bet:

At this point there are 404 chips in the middle and 868 left to win. Building the pot
is now a priority. The turn card itself is of little consequence in this hand as I can
raise here regardless of what the turn card is. Even if my opponent makes a large
bet here, raising or raising all-in is still the most profitable way to play this

211
situation. In fact, my opponent called my bet and then check-called my all-in on the
river card (4s) and showed K9o.
If you are facing a decision choosing between raising and calling, often the option
which you think about first will be most appealing. Both options are “good” but be
conscious that you may automatically choose that original option without giving due
consideration to the alternative. If you practice drilling the right questions, you
will be less likely to miss the optimum play.
In PS3 your general rationale should be similar. Occasionally when you are behind,
you may find it more difficult to escape from hands in deep-stacked situations and
opponents who hit turn or river cards might extract a lot of chips from you, but
overall you need to proceed with aggression. Nearly all of these flops you should
be C-betting into, but your C-bet size should be larger. Opponents are going to
extract more value from you when they hit a hand in position, so you need to charge
them more for the privilege. I recommend a C-bet of 66% to 100% of the pot
depending on the texture of the flop and the number of opponents (bet more on a wet
flop or on one with multiple opponents).
In the early stages of an SNG I raise 3x with AJs, the raise is called by 3 opponents
and the flop is 5s Jd 7s: (PS1, PS3, PS3 and SPR4)

I am in a difficult predicament. Normally, I would not want to be getting committed

to just one pair against three opponents this early in an SNG, but with 260 already
in the middle I need to make a large C-bet to maximise my chances of isolating and
to charge any opponent who wishes to draw a worthy price. I am able to achieve
this with my C-bet size of just over 80%. The button called and the others folded:

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The turn is 4c and now all that remains is to decide whether to stagger two bets
across the turn and river or to go all-in directly. There is a strong case for either
play. If my opponent has a jack I believe I will be called regardless, so it only
really makes a difference against other types of hands eg drawing hands or a hand
such as 99 or A7. I figured that a drawing hand was more likely and therefore
decided to put all the chips in at this point. My opponent called, showed 79o and
the river was Qh. Large bet sizes work well against calling-stations when you have
a strong, but vulnerable hand.
Postflop scenarios 4,5 and 6 should be less common when playing premium hands
as you should normally be the preflop aggressor . You will certainly make more
profit as the preflop aggressor. Nevertheless there will be spots when you call a
raise preflop rather than re-raise and need to respond appropriately.
Sometimes if you are in position facing a C-bet from an aggressive player on a dry
board, you can decide to flat-call the first bet and raise on the turn (following a
similar pattern to the previous example hand), but in general raising will make
more money. Remember, although your hand is very strong, you only hold one pair,
so there is a need to protect the hand.
If there has been no C-bet, it might be tempting to check and conceal your strength,
but protecting the hand is more important. In PS5 you should be betting unless you
strongly desire to play a small pot. For online players, if you have plenty of
information on your opponent assess his C-bet percentage (if thousands of hands,
look at the out of position C-bet percentage) and be cautious if he check-raises.

Remember also that making an aggressive action on the flop does not automatically

213
commit you to the pot. By raising you are forcing an extra round of betting to gather
more information from your opponent and in deep-stacked situations against solid
opponents, you ought to be able to fold later in the hand if you know you are
behind.
PS6 can be awkward. Good players will often start with a check almost regardless
of the flop in front of them and whenever you are in doubt you should too. Check-
calling is the normal play. Making a donk-bet when your donk-bet percentage is
5% or lower is quite a big tell against players who are paying attention. This is one
reason why leading the betting here should be avoided, but when you hold top pair
top kicker there is a decision to be made. There are two main considerations:
Reasons for Leading the Betting Reasons for starting with a check
Multiple Opponents Single Opponent
Raiser has low C-bet % / No Preflop Raiser has high C-bet %
Raiser

Leading the betting out of position with just one pair is always risky and the
biggest single reason for doing so is to isolate to one opponent. Once you have
achieved that, you can slow things down on the turn or river if necessary.
If the top pair is a low card (a jack or lower), it is tempting to lead the betting in
order to protect the hand against overcards falling. The rank of the top pair
should not influence you much though. If anything, a low top pair should make you
slightly more cautious and more inclined to start with a check.
The same is true of wet flops. There is temptation to fire out at them to protect
your hand, but the facts do not back up this argument. The number of opponents is
usually the deciding factor, but if you have a lot of information on the raiser, you
should observe his postflop aggression and C-bet percentage.
I want to look at one example where I choose to lead out and then go and discuss
the different reasons for check-calling and occasionally check-raising.
In this hand I am sat with ATo in the big blind and have declined to raise a limped
pot early in an SNG against 3 opponents. Certainly raising preflop is a good
solution, but I dislike gambling too many chips with a hand as weak as ATo early in
a STT. In an MTT, raising to 5xBB makes good sense. The flop is 7c 9d TC and the
small blinds checks: (PS6, PS6, PS5 and SPR17)

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One possible reason for leading here is the fact that there is no preflop raiser. It
increases the danger that all players will check and that is not ideal here. The most
important factor is that there are multiple opponents and I need to isolate. I do
not like the situation as I am going to tend to win a small pot or lose a medium-
sized pot, but leading is more appealing than checking. On this occasion I got 2
callers and the 7h hit the turn:

When assessing the ranges of the 2 callers, you should look at their VPIP/PFR and
assume that they probably do not have top 10% hands otherwise they would have
raised preflop. Their limping range includes a number of dangerous hands including
JQ, but there are very few hands that are beating me at this point. In addition,

215
neither player raised on the flop, making drawing hands more likely. Clearly I need
to bet again on the turn. The cutoff called and the small blind folded and the 5d
came on the river.
We have already discussed river-betting out of position and the factors involved in
the decision-making: I need to consider how likely I am to be ahead, what hands
are going to call (what value I have in triple-barrelling), how I am going to react to
a raise and what value there may be in catching a bluff by check-calling. It is not an
easy equation to balance and in retrospect, I got this one wrong as I chose to check,
my opponent checked behind and showed Q9o. There were actually quite a lot of
probable hands that my opponent could hold here which would justify a value-bet
on the river. He also had a low postflop aggression factor, which means that he is
unlikely to bluff at the river and more likely to call another bet.
Now I want to examine the choice between check-calling and check-raising these
flops. The main things to consider are the number of active opponents and the SPR.
If you still need to isolate and the board is not dry, this is a potential reason for
check-raising, perhaps just to the minimum amount. Also in some low SPR spots,
you can check-raise either all-in or as a staggered all-in across flop and turn. One
problem with check-calling is that your natural bet on the turn will be another
check, allowing your opponent the option of a free river card in position. Also, if
your opponent has you beaten, sometimes check-calling all three streets can cost
you a lot more than an early check-raise on the flop, which frequently halts your
opponent’s aggression.
The default play in these spots though is the check-call. Here, I elect to flat-call a
raise from the small blind with AQo early in an SNG and flop 8d Qs 3d: (PS6 and
SPR7)

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One of the advantages of the check-raise is the extra information it gives you, but
that information is always limited on boards with draws or against players who are
very loose. If a board has a flush draw, do not check-raise unless you are going
to call a shove.
Here, the board is not completely dry, my opponent seems loose, there is no need to
isolate and I am quite happy to look at the next card. I check-call the flop and the
turn is 3h. I check again in the hope that my opponent bets again. If he checks behind
me, I am only really worried about a king falling on the river and if he bets again, I
can check-raise to extract value from hands such as KQ or drawing hands.
The latter scenario unfolds. I check-raise to a natural amount, the river is 5c and I
have clear value shoving as I am likely to get called by a weaker queen or in this
case, just 99:

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Delaying my aggression until the turn card gets my loose opponent over-committed
to the pot and extracts maximum value from the hand. Note that against a strong
opponent, you should be much more cautious in putting so many chips into the pot
with just a single pair.
In extraordinary circumstances check-folding the flop can be smart. If the pot is
limped and unusual aggression takes place on the flop, probably involving more
than one opponent, then you need to assess your tournament situation, your
opponents’ ranges and your likely equity. There will often be a high level of doubt
in these situations and gambling a large number of chips with just one pair is not
normally worthwhile.
If the flop is unopened, you should always lead out on the turn, even if the turn
card is a high card that suits your opponent(s).
Summary:
In PS1 C-bet 40% on dry boards and 66% on wet boards
Isolate first unless you have a good reason not to
Never stop practicing putting your opponent on a hand or hand range
In PS3 C-bet between 66% and 100% of the flop
Your hand is strong with low SPRs, yet vulnerable with high SPRs
In PS6 learn the table of reasons
In PS6 check-calling is usually superior to check-raising
Be prepared to fold against high levels of aggression
Chapter 13: Top Pair (Strong Kicker, but not Top Kicker)
There is very little tangible difference playing top pair with a strong kicker as

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opposed to top kicker, but that difference is important enough to warrant further
discussion.
The difference will manifest itself in the profit you make from these flops. You
might be surprised to learn that top pair strong kicker makes about a third less
in profit than top pair top kicker. This is a considerable amount and is mainly due
to those big hands when AK beats AQ, KJ beats QJ and other such unfortunate
showdowns.
To a large extent these moments are indeed unfortunate. After all, a hand can be
played perfectly and still lose. Nevertheless as students of the game we need to
learn what we can from the mathematical facts and adapt accordingly.
The main lesson to be learned from this is the importance of good starting hand
selection, which is a preflop issue and outside the realm of this book. Everyone
reading this book should have a solid grasp of basic preflop hand selection.
Postflop, when your top pair strong kicker counters resistance, you ought to be
conscious of the significant shift in your equity versus your opponent’s range.
In this chapter, I am going to explore situations where your reduced equity should
alter your overall thought process and, occasionally, decision-making.
SPR (Stack to Pot Relative Risk TPSK Committed?
Ratio)
0-3 Very low Yes
4-6 Low 70%
7-10 Medium 15%
11-14 High No
15+ Very high No

Short-stacked you will be committed to most pots with top pair when the SPR is 5
or less. If you hold top kicker, you can commit to some flops when the SPR is much
larger, depending on the circumstances. If you do not hold top kicker, you must be
much more cautious and more inclined to give up pots. There is a grey area with an
SPR of around 5 to 9 where playing top pair becomes particularly difficult. In
really deep-stacked situations, you can either exercise pot control to keep it smaller
or make bets which discover the strength of your opponent’s hand well before
showdown.
In PS1, when an opponent check-raises my C-bet, I make big profits when I hold
top kicker, yet some of that profit is wiped out when my kicker is a king or a queen.
In this 6-max MTT I raise with KQo from the hijack an am called by tight players in
the cutoff and the big blind. The flop is 6c Td Qh: (PS1, PS3 and SPR5.5)

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With the SPR on the flop at less than 6, my commitment level to top pair ought to be
fairly strong. When my C-bet is check-raised by a tight player, I do not believe he is
doing this with many drawing hands and certainly no bluffing hands. He has typical
TAG statistics for 6-max games and is likely to hold at least top pair in this spot.
KJ, QT, QJ, KQ, AQ, 66 and possibly TT are his most likely holdings. Against this
range of hands, my equity is less than 45%. There is also the additional danger
posed by the other opponent to consider. Despite the relatively low SPR, I simply
do not want to endanger my tournament life by gambling in a situation which offers
at best equal EV. I folded and so did the cutoff.
Now if you consider this same situation, but suppose I hold AQ instead of KQ, my
equity against the same range is 55%. When analysing narrow ranges, the smallest
changes can have a significant impact on your perceived equity. For those of you
who find it difficult to fold in spots such as this, try and respect check-raises
unless you have a strong reason not to.
Here is a slightly deeper-stacked example from level 1 of an SNG. I raise 3x with
AJo and am called by 3 opponents seeing a flop of 5h Ah 3h: (PS1, PS3 and SPR6)

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Preflop, my opponent has extremely good pot odds so he may have chosen to call
with a variety of suited aces, suited hands and connected hands, including A5s,
A8s, AQo, KQo, KJs, 46s, 24s. His range should be quite wide.
Postflop, however, he seems to be fairly passive, so his check-raise is particularly
alarming and whilst it could be a drawing hand, my equity against his range is
sufficiently uncertain for me to fold. Once again, imagine my hand is AK and not AJ
and my equity shoots up significantly and my willingness to go to showdown
likewise.
This is the crucial moment in the hand. If I choose to proceed by calling, I will need
to commit to a turn card with no heart. I do not believe my equity in this hand is
strong enough to justify the gamble, so I fold. Remember that this is level 1 of an
SNG, so I need significant +EV before committing serious chips to a pot. This
often means declining early-tournament gambles.
In PS2, you are responding to a donk-bet. The donk-bet does not count as a real act
of aggression unless you know your opponent rarely donk-bets. You should do very
well against most donk-bets when holding top pair. Call as your default play; raise
if you need to isolate, build the pot or if the donk-bet is small. If there are further
opponent bets, you will need to re-assess his range and respond accordingly.
In PS3 you will find that opponents attack your C-bets quite regularly, so you
should pay attention to their aggression factors. You can get quite nicely paid off by
aggressive players in these type of spots, which is important compensation for the
times when you miss the flop and are forced to fold. Opponents raising in position
have wider ranges than opponents check-raising.
Take a look at this hand from another 6-max SNG. I have raised from the small

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blind preflop holding KQo and been called by the big blind, who raises my C-bet
after a flop of Jc Ks 3d: (PS3 and SPR6)

I know quite a lot about my opponent as I have 996 hands of information. When he
raises the flop, I believe there are plenty of bluffing and semi-bluffing hands in his
range. It is very different from being check-raised. Consequently I call and am
happy to see 4s on the turn. The natural progression (now defending the hand) is to
check the turn, which gives him the option of a cheap river card, but this does not
worry me too much. Drawing hands are not a major concern as there was no flush
draw on the flop and I hold one of the queens, which lowers the odds on him
making a straight. I would only lead out at the turn if I were very concerned about
drawing hands.
The villain bet 300 into an 840 pot on the turn and I had to choose between check-
calling again or check-raising all-in. Normally I would recommend check-raising
all-in in these type of spots as it prevents drawing hands from seeing cheap river
cards and works as a value bet against Kx or Jx.
In this hand, I suspected a large amount of my opponent’s range was air and I could
make more chips bluff-catching than value-betting. Players tend to bluff a lot from
the big blind in blind-on-blind situations. For that reason, I chose to check-call and
saw 7h on the river:

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Having declined to check-raise the turn and follow the more natural pattern of
betting (R/BC/XC), I am committed to check-calling the river too (R/BC/XC/XC).
This only makes good profit if you are confident your opponent’s bluffing
range is bigger than the range of hands from which you can extract value eg Kx
or Jx. When in doubt, protect the hand by check-raising the turn.
In PS3 although your opponents are going to attack you more often, there are times
when you still need to show restraint. Sensitive bubble situations are an example.
In this hand, I am the middle stack in a 3-man bubble and have made the poisoned
preflop raise into the big stack from the small blind holding JQs. He called and we
saw a monotone flop of 5c Jc 2c: (PS3 and SPR7)

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Playing out of position against the big stack in this type of bubble situation is
extremely difficult. I am the player who stands to lose a huge amount of equity in
the prize money, so to justify gambling I need to be a very strong favourite. He can
call in position preflop and attack any wet flop and I will be forced to fold a huge
percentage of the time. This is good play as the big stack in the bubble. If I call his
raise, a large bet will surely follow on the turn regardless, so I really have to make
my decision now. Unfortunately, although I might be a favourite, I am not a strong
enough favourite and I lay the hand down.
The villain in this case has a relatively low aggression factor of 1.8, so I believe he
held a jack, a big club or a stronger hand. If I had held top pair top kicker, I would
have been tempted to call his bet and then check-raise any turn card that was not a
club, king or ace. Playing with a middle stack against the big stack in a bubble is
a thankless task and you should go out of your way to avoid it. When you do
find yourself in a dilemma such as this one, be prepared to lay down hands you
might ordinarily progress with.
In PS4 you are not the preflop raiser and you have position. This is an entirely
different situation altogether. To highlight why this is so different compare the
following hand with the previous one. Once again, I hold JQ diamonds and the flop
is similar Js 3s 2s, but this time I have position (PS4 and SPR10) and there are no
ICM constraints. In the previous hand I am in shackles; here I am free:

I call a small raise preflop and then elect to just smooth call the villain’s C-bet. On
a monotone board there is always a conflicting desire to protect the hand against the
flush draw, whilst trying to avoid going broke against a made flush. When you have

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position, you can usually exercise a degree of pot control, especially deep-stacked
(here the SPR was over 10). You can apply enough pressure on the villain by flat-
calling. Raising is unnecessary. Flopping any top pair in all PS4 situations is
usually very profitable as you are being attacked whilst holding a strong hand
in position.
On the turn the Jd strengthens my hand. It is tempting to raise on the turn to try and
win a bigger pot, but it still does not really make sense. Raising would expose me
to losing my stack against a made flush and although it charges drawing hands more
for the next card, it effectively ends any chance of the villain throwing out a bluff at
the river. The second call on the turn exercises further pot control and keeps the pot
alive. Seeing a river card in position is not a bad thing. The river was the Qh,
completing a full house for me, the villain bet half the pot again, I raised and he
folded.
For PS5 situations, simply make the obvious bet and watch out for check-raises.
In PS6 you need to pay careful attention. It feels good to have flopped top pair, but
extracting value is not easy when you’re defending a hand out of position. You are
more vulnerable than if you were holding top kicker. All the advice from the
previous chapter holds true, but leading the betting is even more dangerous. Check-
calling remains the default play with high SPRs and check-raising an alternative
option with lower SPRs.
Summary:
Play in much the same way as top pair top kicker
Be aware of your reduced equity when opponent counters
Be particularly wary of check-raises; lay down the hand if necessary
Makes 33% less profit than top pair top kicker
Chapter 14: Top pair (Weak Kicker)
When you enter a pot preflop, you should have an idea of what you are trying to
achieve. Flopping top pair with a weak kicker is not normally one of those goals.
These flops will return less than half as much profit as top pair top kicker. This
is a fact you should be aware of. I am defining a weak kicker as any kicker other
than the best 3 available kickers, so usually a ten/jack or lower.
The reason the profit from these hands is so much worse is that they lose a lot of
larger pots to bigger kickers. In low SPR situations you will find this unavoidable,
but it is extremely important that you are able to fold top pair in deeper-stacked
situations when an opponent shows aggression.
SPR (Stack to Pot Relative Risk TPWK Committed?
Ratio)

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 0-3 Very low Yes
4-6 Low 60%
7-10 Medium 10%
11-14 High No
15+ Very high No

Take a look at this PS1 situation from the final table of an 18-man 6-max SNG. I
have raised from the button with A4o and been called by the loose/passive small
blind. The flop is Ah 8c Qd:

On the flop, the SPR is 4.5. Often you will feel committed to this holding top pair
and having put in a lot of chips postflop. After my opponent calls my C-bet and
check-raises all-in on the turn, I have to call 5,555 to win 11,721, which is 2.84-1.
I need a 26% chance of winning to call with equal EV. Given the tournament
situation, I would actually like quite a bit more equity to justify calling, but I simply
do not have it. This is a passive villain who must have at least a good ace. His low
aggression factor suggests he is not the type of player who would make this play on
a semi-bluff, so I believe I am drawing to a maximum of 5 outs, giving me 10%
equity, a long way short of the required amount. For that reason, I folded. If you find
it hard to make this type of fold you should practice analysing hands in which you
have lost large pots after flopping top pair. Think about your opponent’s range
and your likely equity.
In PS2 situations, you want to be wary of running into a hand that has you outkicked
since donk-bets are often top pair. If you exercise some pot control by just calling
on the flop, you can often keep pots a little bit smaller. Only raise if the donk-bet is

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small, you want to isolate or the SPR is small.
In PS3 stick to the same C-bet of 66% to 100% of the pot as discussed previously.
This will secure more folds than smaller C-bets and when you are out of position
you do not really want to see the turn card. If the C-bet is called, you should tend to
double-barrel these flops, especially if your opponent could be drawing. You
should double-barrel even if it seems dangerous and regardless of whether your
hand improves.
In PS4 you should generally be calling the C-bet and re-evaluating on the turn.
In PS5 you need to make the obvious bet. If you are tempted to check behind to trap
your opponent, remind yourself that you hold only one pair and it really does make
more sense to bet.
In PS6 you need to be even more careful than when you flop top pair good kicker.
You are defending a hand out of position and you may have to play a guessing game,
check-calling bets until you are compelled to check-fold. Leading the betting should
be reserved only for multi-way pots and even then, it is optional.
I want to conclude these three chapters by looking at a typical “guessing game”
situation where you have to choose between check-calling and check-folding in a
generic PS6 hand. It is early in a 6-max SNG and I have completed the small blind
with A7o in a multi-way pot as there are loose players to exploit. The flop is 2h 4s
Ad: (PS6 and SPR6.5)

After I checked, the maniac at the table made a pot-sized bet and I decided there
was at least an 80% chance I was ahead with my A7o. I never feel committed to a
weak top pair on the flop with an SPR of just less than 7, but against loose players

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you do need to extend your zone of commitment. If I am going to proceed in this
hand, then check-calling all the way through is quite clearly the best way of doing
so. I called, the big blind folded, the turn was 8h, I check-called again and the river
was 10c:

When he moved all-in on the river, I considered there was a good chance he held a
better ace, two pair or even a set, but I only needed a 31% chance of winning to
justify calling (527 to win 1,187) and there were no real ICM factors in play given
my tournament situation. Against a player this aggressive who had not raised
preflop, I thought I could win this close to 50% of the time. I called and won the
pot.
Reading your opponent is often a deciding factor in poker and it is particularly
important when you are check-calling out of position.
Summary:
Makes less than half as much profit as top pair top kicker
Be careful in the yellow zone when the SPR is 4-6
Keep assessing your equity against your opponent’s range
Against loose players extend your zone of commitment slightly

Chapter 15: Middle pair

In very low SPR situations middle pair might be enough to commit to your hand,
particularly against opponents playing wide ranges eg during heads-up play. When
the SPR is slightly too high to justify commitment to the hand it becomes difficult to

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play as you will often have just 5 outs to improve your hand and the risk/reward
ratio in gambling starts to shift out of your favour.
In high SPR situations, you have more “room” to make strategic bets in order to
ascertain the strength of your opponent’s hand and you will never get committed
unless your hand improves.
In some ways middle pair is a slightly less hazardous flop than top pair as you are
less likely to get married to the hand. It is a decent enough flop and will yield a
small profit, but to make serious money from these flops your hand needs to
improve. In the absence of any draws, that will only happen 20.4% of the time, so if
you encounter serious opposition at the flop stage, folding is usually going to be the
right option. Folding middle pair is usually a lot easier for players than folding top
pair.
The texture of the flop always makes a difference. On wet boards keep your bet
sizes larger, but be more wary. On dry boards you can bet slightly less and you can
take comfort in the fact that your showdown equity is likely to be higher because of
the dry board.
On flops with more than one opponent, on average your hand is still profitable, but
only just. The strength of middle pair weakens considerably in multi-way pots.
Of course your commitment level will depend on the usual factors, including your
postflop situation, the SPR, the quality of your middle pair, your kicker, the texture
of the board and your opponents’ ranges:
SPR (Stack to Pot Relative Risk Middle Pair -
Ratio) Committed?
0-3 Very low 75%
4-6 Low 25%
7-10 Medium No
11-14 High No
15+ Very high No

If you enter the pot as the preflop raiser in position (PS1 and 2), you will find these
flops quite profitable. You will make all the normal non-showdown winnings; you
will escape relatively cheaply from opponents showing strength; and you will
occasionally improve your hand and win a larger pot.

Your default play in PS1 will be to make a C-bet. If there is no bet in front of you, it
makes sense to C-bet in most circumstances. There may be occasions when your
pair is a king or a queen when checking behind against a single opponent may offer
some attractive benefits. You can keep the pot smaller with relatively low risk and

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may encourage your opponent to bluff at the turn or river. In the list of No C-bet
categories, this would fall under number 6 – pot control on dry boards.

If you have multiple opponents, you must C-bet in PS1 or PS3 in order to make at
least one opponent fold.

In this example I raise from the cutoff with AJo in a 6-max MTT and am called by
both the blinds. The flop comes 2d Ks Jd and both villains check: (PS1, PS1 and
SPR2.5)

A C-bet is required as I have 2 opponents. My commitment to the pot is slightly

unclear, so if I think about it in terms of SPR, it will help make a decision. The SPR
against the big blind is less than 3 and against the small blind it is less than 2. I am
utterly committed against the smaller stack, but I will have a very tough choice
should the big blind attack. I would need to carefully assess his range, work out my
equity against his range and then consider my EV.
As it happens the small blind called, but the big blind folded. The turn came 8s and
the small blind shoved all-in. At this point, I am concerned that he has a king, but
there are also many drawing hands he could have. He may also hold a pocket pair
or a worse jack. Folding to his all-in would be a huge mistake. Calling 855 to win
2,655 means I only need a 24% chance of winning to justify calling with +EV. ICM
factors influence me slightly. I might fold if I thought I could only win 1 in 3 times,
but the reality is that I have easily enough equity in this spot. I called, he showed
A2o and I won a nice pot.

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This hand should look fairly straightforward to most of you. My aim is to ensure
you follow a smart line of thought before arriving at your decision. That means
acknowledging you are in PS1 against both opponents, calculating the low SPR and
making a decision about your commitment level before you even make your
continuation bet.
In the next example I raise with A6o from the cutoff and am called by the big blind,
who plays a tight range. The flop comes down Tc 2s 6h and the villain checks,
putting me again in PS1. The main differences between this hand and the previous
hand are: here the SPR is too high (6) to commit to the hand; the board is drier; and
the quality of my middle pair is lower (here I am beaten by 88 or 99 for example).
Of course I C-bet the flop, the villain called again and the turn brought 7s:

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At this point I am concerned about the narrow range of my opponent. He defends
only 18% of the time and folds to a C-bet a further 50% of those times, so it is
highly likely this player has a decent hand. He will hold a pocket pair, a strong ace,
top pair or occasionally a drawing hand such as 45 or 89. Overall, I consider my
showdown equity is going to be quite poor now.
After my opponent checks, I decide to check behind for pot control, figuring I am
not going to secure enough folds from my opponent to justify a second postflop bet.
I want to limit the size of the pot and I may be able to catch a bluff on the river.
Whether I am ahead or behind, it is extremely useful being in position on the river,
which was 3s:

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Although the 3s completes a few more possible hands for my opponent, it is fairly
unlikely to have benefitted him. Nevertheless if he had checked a third time I would
have checked behind, because there are very few hands I could imagine him calling
with which I have beaten. The relative risk in trying to milk chips on the river with
a hand as weak as mine is usually too high, especially against a tight opponent.
The villain led out on the river for 195 chips into a pot of 487, giving me calling
odds of 3.5 to 1. That means that if I believe I can win 22% of the time I should
call. Given my opponent’s low W$SD% and my weak check on the turn, it is
certainly plausible that he is bluffing and so I made the call. He showed 89s and
took the pot.
When you are not committed to a hand, you should often look for an
opportunity to exercise pot control on at least one of the postflop streets.
(R/B/X/C) is a common betting line for marginal hands in position.
Earlier I indicated that an SPR of 4 to 6 is the yellow zone, the zone of uncertainty
when it comes to committing to a hand with middle pair. The next hand I want to
look at falls into that category and using our knowledge of the other postflop
dimensions it should be possible to find the right play.
I am heads-up at the end of a 6-max SNG and I raise from the button with K7o. The
villain calls, the flop is Ad Js Kd, the SPR is 5 and my opponent donk-bets the
minimum: (PS2)

As you should already be aware, heads-up play is generally very aggressive, so if

you find yourself in the zone of uncertainty from an SPR perspective, you
should tend to favour gambling in a heads-up situation. The other reasons why I
would choose to gamble here are my opponent’s loose range (he will call many

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raises without an ace in his hand), his donk-bet percentage and donk-bet size, the
strength of my middle pair and also the wet board. Recall that a very small donk-
bet size is an indication of weakness and often a drawing hand.
The fact that it is a wet board increases the difficulty of reading my opponent’s
hand. It is hard enough to read a loose player on a dry board, but wet boards
increase the number of possible hands they may be playing and that in turn
increases the probability that middle pair is ahead right now.
So how committed am I to this hand? Committed, except against an immediate re-
raise all-in. I am clearly going to raise the donk-bet, which forces another decision
from my opponent. If he were to shove all-in, his range narrows significantly and
calling the all-in would be –EV.
He actually just called my pot-sized raise on the flop, a much weaker move on a
wet board. Although there is still concern that he may hold an ace, there are plenty
of weak drawing hands to exploit. A good card will likely come on the turn and
whenever you suspect your opponent is drawing, the turn is the ideal street to
get busy.
The turn brought 8s, the villain checked and I bet close to pot size, committing me
to the pot, whilst inviting my opponent to call without value. He did call and when
the river came Qd he shoved. I was of course calling regardless as I had committed
myself to the hand on the turn:

I want to look at another example of playing middle pair heads-up in PS2 with
different circumstances. This time I face a tight regular and we are much deeper-
stacked. I raise in position with A7o and am flat-called. The flop is 9h 4d 7d and
the villain donk-bets 40% of the pot: (PS2 and SPR 14)

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Remember to assess the meaning of the donk-bet each time you encounter it. This
opponent donk-bets 22% of the time, which is quite high for a regular, but it is still
likely to be top pair or a strong drawing hand. I should certainly consider just flat-
calling the donk-bet in position, but when the donk-bet is small, I like raising to
force another action from my opponent, to gather more information and to continue
to represent a strong hand. Flat-calling exercises pot control, but it allows drawing
hands a cheap card. It also leaves you playing a guessing game for the next two
streets.
After my raise, if my opponent were to re-raise, I can fold immediately, but a flat-
call allows me to proceed in the hand as the aggressor and make another strong
play at the turn. It is useful having top kicker and a backdoor flush draw in this
situation.
The turn card brought 4h, which looks like a good card for me as I do not believe
my opponent has a 4 very often. I proceeded with a half pot-sized bet and was
check-raised aggressively:

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At this point, I know my opponent is likely to hold top pair. Occasionally, it will be
a strong drawing hand played as a semi-bluff, but overall my showdown equity is
poor now.
There are two main reasons why I am confident I am behind. Firstly, the donk-bet
from a tight player is often top pair and secondly, the check-raise on the turn is a
huge alarm bell. You have to respect check-raises, even when you suspect they
may be a bluff or semi-bluff. Folding in this spot should be routine.
In PS3 you have a lot of good reasons to C-bet and this should be the default play. It
is not always going to offer the best value and there will be times when you want to
consider other options, but in general C-betting is the most profitable betting line
with middle pair in PS3.
Here I hold K9o in the early stages of a 6-max SNG, raise from the small blind and
am called by a very loose player. The flop is 9d Qs 8c (PS3 and SPR 17):

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This board is not one I would consider checking into. I want to protect my strength
and charge my opponent for seeing the next card. A C-bet of 70% of the pot is good
against a loose player on a fairly dangerous board. Remember that drawing hands
do well in high SPR situations, so it is important to get your bet sizes correct. Bet
enough to extract value from drawing hands, but not so much that you risk losing a
big pot with just middle pair. Fold to any raise, unless your opponent is super-
aggressive.
The villain called and the turn was 3s. When a loose player just calls, this is often a
sign of weakness and often a drawing hand. The 3s is unlikely to have helped out,
so proceeding with a second bet makes a lot of sense now. Once again I keep the
bet size around 70% of the pot, which is enough to encourage a loose call, but not
so much that I am risking a huge amount with just middle pair. I am always keen to
make a bet at the turn when I believe my opponent is drawing. If you fail to bet
at the turn, you may have just lost your last opportunity to win any more chips as
players with missed draws do not pay you on the river.
My opponent called and the river card was 8s, which brought about 2 additional
ways I could be beaten:

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He may have made a backdoor flush or he could have been calling along with
bottom pair and hit trips. At this point, I need to decide whether a bet on the river is
going to offer any value. There are still a small number of hands which might pay
me eg 66, J9, but a third bet puts more chips in jeopardy in the event that I am
behind. Check-calling is safer and it may also catch a few bluffs. I opted to check-
call, the villain checked behind and I won a useful pot.
A third option exists in situations like this on the river. Here I like checking, but
sometimes a small value bet is effective at collecting a few more chips, whilst not
putting too many chips at risk. It is vulnerable against very strong players capable
of bluffing you off the hand, but they have to read it correctly as small value bets
can also be a sign of extreme strength. Sometimes I will bet 15-30% of the pot on
the river as an alternative to check-calling.
In multi-way pots I strongly recommend making your C-bet. You are more than
strong enough with middle pair to proceed aggressively, but you have to be willing
to fold to raises. Middle pair is profitable until you encounter resistance and if that
means folding the best hand from time to time, that is exactly what you must do.
In PS4-6 you enter the pot as the preflop defender and when you flop middle pair
you will make less money on average than if you were the preflop aggressor. PS4
though is usually an enjoyable situation, flopping middle pair in position against an
aggressor who makes a C-bet. Normally you will want to call the C-bet in position,
but sometimes you might choose to raise or fold depending on the dynamics.
When your opponent is playing a wide range, it is much safer to progress in the
hand by calling along in position. If your opponent is playing a tight range, the
quality of your middle pair matters more and you should proceed with caution

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(often you should be folding preflop of course).
In this example I am defending the big blind against a small blind steal, so my
opponent is likely playing a wide range. I hold QTo during level 1 of a 6-max SNG
and I opt to flat-call preflop. The flop is 5h Kd Td: (PS4 and SPR 17)

In deep-stacked situations I am far more willing to call raises in position than out of
position as there is plenty of room to take advantage of position on all three
postflop streets.
In low SPR situations, having position is less of an advantage as the postflop
betting can be over very fast. On this flop I have to choose between calling and
raising the C-bet. Holding just middle pair, I am never too keen to build up a large
pot early in an SNG, so my tournament situation dictates a call to control the pot to
a small size. Later in tournaments, in lower SPR situations or holding a draw to go
with my pair, I will sometimes prefer a raise.
The turn card was 6s and the villain once again bet out, indicating that he really
does have a piece of the action. He may have top pair, middle pair or perhaps a
draw of some sort. The turn card has probably not helped him and so if I am going
to try a raise in this hand, now would be the optimum time to do so.
The problem is that he is not going to fold often enough. If he is prepared to double-
barrel, the chances are he will not be folding to a raise. Instead of raising, I opt to
smooth call once more, arriving fairly cheaply at the river, but still playing
somewhat of a guessing game.
The river brought the 3c which is a good card for me as it has not completed any
obvious draws. If I was ahead on the flop, most likely I am still ahead. The villain,
though, led out for a third time:

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At this point, I have failed to narrow down his range any further. He could still
have top pair, middle pair or a missed draw. My job is to work out how often I am
ahead and whether I have the right odds to call.
When your opponent bets half the pot, you should be able to win at least 1 in 4
times to make the call profitable (140 chips to win 420). Here, even though I will
sometimes lose, I can definitely win 1 in 4 times, so I must call. My opponent
turned over T8o and I won a small pot. Crucially, I did not put too many chips at
risk by raising in the hand. This is crucial during the early stages of SNGs when it
does not make sense to play large pots.
In PS5 betting is generally more profitable than checking. This follows on any
flop regardless of whether you have hit the flop. Sometimes you may have a reason
for keeping the pot small and you wish to check behind; sometimes you may face an
opponent with a habit of check-raising flops. Mostly, though, it is going to make
sense to try and win the pot with a bet and protect your pair.
If you have entered the pot deep-stacked with a hand such as a suited connector,
your intention in the hand is to make a huge pot. Middle pair is not a hand you are
going to make a huge pot with very often and so you must always be prepared to
fold to any serious resistance, assuming you have not picked up a draw as well.
Your hand will need to improve for you to consider committing to it, and even then
you may need to be cautious.
In this hand I limp from the button into a multi-way pot with 67 clubs on level 1 of a
6-max SNG. The flop is Jh 6h 2s. Strictly I consider myself to be in PS5 against
both opponents, though there is no real aggressor. The SPR is nearly 13:

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In PS5 it is normally right to be betting with middle pair and this is no exception. I
want to take down the pot or isolate to one opponent. Checking here makes no sense
at all. The big blind folded and the loose player on the cutoff called.
The turn card was Ac, an ideal card for the preflop aggressor to attack. In this hand,
though, there is no preflop raiser and either one of us could represent the ace. When
the cutoff checks, the natural response is to bet out again. This is certainly the
default play in this type of spot. Actually, I chose to exercise some pot control by
checking behind, with the intention of calling a bet on the river instead. Remember
that when you are not committed to a hand, you should often look for an
opportunity to exercise pot control on at least one of the postflop streets. This
slightly cautious approach works well in the early stages of SNGs.
The river card was 7h completing a possible flush and making me 2 pair:

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My opponent then led out with a small bet on the river. This could easily be an
outright bluff as the villain is a loose player and it makes a lot of sense to seize the
opportunity of winning the pot after my weak check on the turn. It could also be a
stronger hand, but it is hard to get a good read on loose players. Raising should be
a fairly obvious play, but I am still going to fold to a large re-raise, given the
possibility of my opponent holding a flush or two better pairs. I chose to raise just
less than pot size, which will get a high percentage of calls and allows me to
escape fairly cheaply from a large re-raise. The villain called and showed A4o.
In PS6, you will have the choice of leading out with your middle pair, or starting
with the more natural check. As I have often discovered during the process of
writing this book, the choice in PS6 is extremely unclear and will depend on
factors such as your tournament situation, your opponent’s range and his C-bet %.
Check-raising seems to offer the most overall profit, but it does expose you to the
possibility of losing a big pot and it does rely on your opponent C-betting. I prefer
check-raising when the SPR is quite small (and I can proceed committed) or when I
also hold some kind of draw to increase my likely outs.
Donk-betting in PS6 holding middle pair is perfectly acceptable, but beware of
opponents playing narrow ranges. There are times when you may prefer to check-
raise, check-call or even check-fold. Unfortunately in this situation there is no
clearly correct play.
Summary:
Normally good enough to commit to when SPR is less than 4
Be careful in the yellow zone when the SPR is 4-6
Short-handed, especially heads-up, tend to favour gambling

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 When not committed, consider a negative action on 1 postflop street for
pot control
If you suspect your opponent is drawing, the turn card is an ideal place to
get busy
Respect check-raises even when you suspect they may be a bluff or
semi-bluff
Generally fold to any raise
Position matters more in higher SPR situations

Chapter 16: Bottom pair

Bottom pair is a very marginal flop and not one to get excited about as most of the
time you are going to win or lose a small pot. Unless you make a draw later in the
hand, your hand will only improve to a weak trips or a vulnerable two pair, neither
of which do particularly well in huge showdowns. It is not a great hand, so try not
to build big pots with this hand unless your hand improves.
SPR (Stack to Pot Relative Risk Bottom Pair -
Ratio) Committed?
0-3 Very low 50%
4-6 Low 15%
7-10 Medium No
11-14 High No
15+ Very high No

In PS1 you should be C-betting as most of the profit you generate will come simply
from the fold equity you have. If your opponent raises you can fold and if he calls,
you are going to need to reassess all of the factors on the turn card and decide
whether a second bet is worthwhile. When your hand does not improve (most of the
time), you really need a good reason to justify another bet on the turn. Often
checking behind on the turn and then negotiating the river in position is a cheaper
and safer solution.
If an overcard (especially an ace) comes on the turn or you pick up a draw to go
with your bottom pair, then these are potential reasons for double-barrelling. When
making this decision, it is essential that you profile your opponent as many
players have a habit of calling on the turn if they have already called on the
flop.
In this hand my opponent makes a surprise bet at the turn having called my preflop
raise and C-bet. It is a heads-up situation and I hold K4o on a board of 7h 10d 4d

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7s: (PS1 and SPR was 6)

The surprise bet on the turn is sometimes an indication of a drawing hand. Against
an opponent as loose as this one, I recommend not attempting to read too much into
advanced betting lines. You would then be guilty of thinking two levels deeper than
your opponent, when you only ever want to be one level ahead.
This is an important concept explored by Mike Turner in his excellent book
Crushing Low Stakes Poker. Sometimes standard betting lines are not the most
profitable against poor opponents and a far simpler approach is needed.
Conversely, standard betting lines can be too predictable for playing against
advanced opponents and subtle deviations can be beneficial.
The main question I want to ask in this spot is how often I believe I am ahead as
this should influence my decision the most.
By C-betting I have defined my opponent’s range a little more. Sometimes he will
hold a drawing hand, sometimes an ace and sometimes he will be a long way
ahead. The 7 on the turn has reduced the likelihood of him holding a 7 or a 10,
which does make a small difference to the mathematics. On the other hand, he is
fairly passive, so any active bet like this one is an alarm bell. Overall, I think I am
going to get to showdown in position with positive expectation.
The next part of the decision is whether to call or raise. Try and imagine being
ahead and playing through both actions; then imagine being behind and do the
same. This is a useful way of understanding which action is more effective. When I
am behind, I definitely prefer just calling as I will lose fewer chips. When I am
ahead, I protect my hand better with a raise and may make more money, but I also
give up any real hope of catching a bluff on the river. Overall calling is better.

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I called and the river was 7d completing a weak full house for me:

My opponent checked the river card, which was a real sign of weakness having bet
at the turn card. At this point, I believed I was ahead and wished to extract value
from hands such as Ax or even a made flush. I value bet the river to try and get a
call from Ax and got exactly what I was looking for.
In PS2, you are probably going to lose money on average. As is always the case in
PS2, you need to assess your opponent’s donk-bet. You can auto-fold to a large
percentage of solid players as they will only be donk-betting with strong holdings.
If you get this right, you can save a huge amount of chips. When your opponent’s
donk-betting range is much wider eg in a heads-up situation or against a loose
player, it may be worth calling or raising the donk-bet, especially if the donk-bet is
small in size.
I use this next example to emphasise how important the texture of the flop is too. I
am playing heads-up holding T5 spades and my loose opponent has called my
preflop raise and donk-bets the flop: (PS2 and SPR5)

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With an SPR of 5 and holding just bottom pair, it is essential that you give up in
situations like this one. Although my opponent donk-bets a large percentage of
flops, my equity against his range is very poor indeed. This is no wet flop; this is a
drenched flop. Even if the SPR were as low as 1, continuing against this type of
board with no piece of a draw would be a mistake as your equity will be lower
than the 33% required.
In really low SPR spots, opponents will sometimes donk-bet all-in or virtually all-
in, putting you in a tricky decision. If you fold too often, you will start to register
non-showdown losses, but if you call too often, your showdown graph will
plummet. This is why you need to master the art of putting an opponent on a
range, assessing your equity against that range and then working out whether
you have positive or negative EV in making the call.
Now look at this example from a 6-max SNG bubble. I have raised in position,
attacking the two smaller stacks and the big blind, with a stack of just 8 big blinds,
has called and then immediately donk-bet all-in, a classic “stop and go”. The flop
is 6h Tc 8h and I hold A6o: (PS2 and SPR1)

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In the heat of the moment it is easy to just click call or fold without assessing the
situation. The first thing you should do is work out your required equity to justify
calling. In other words how often do you need to be able to win to have positive
expectation? Whenever the amount to call is exactly half of the total effective pot
size the answer will always be 33%. You have pot odds of 2 to 1. This is a good
enough benchmark here.
Assessing your equity against his range is more challenging and playing live you
would have to make an educated estimate. Without an equity calculator I would
guess that my equity was between 45 and 50% here, easily good enough to justify
calling, which is exactly what I did and won the hand against QJo. In low SPR
spots folding too often can be a major problem, so figuring out the mathematics is
crucial.
In PS3 C-betting with bottom pair is never an enjoyable experience, but it remains
the standard play. It will not always be the most profitable option though. If you
have good reasons to choose an alternative line such as a check-raise, you should
feel free to experiment. Check-calling is normally to be avoided because unlike C-
betting and check-raising it gives you no fold equity whatsoever. Remember when
you are playing bottom pair that most of the profit you are going to make is through
making your opponent fold.
One of the disadvantages in check-raising is that when you get called, you need to
bet again at the turn. It is almost always correct to bet again behind a check-
raise. This may involve investing an uncomfortable number of chips with such a
weak hand, but if you follow this line, you need to continue with your bluff. The
turn bet will secure enough folds to make it very profitable. If you are not prepared

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to make this bet on the turn, then you should never have check-raised in the first
place. Try and plan your betting line at the flop stage.
You are most commonly going to encounter PS4 to PS6 in unraised pots as you
should not normally be calling raises with low cards in your hand. Bottom pair is
certainly worth a lot more in an unraised pot than in a raised pot as it will have a
better chance of actually being ahead at the flop stage.
In PS4 you are in a tricky spot as all 3 options are problematic: folding is too
negative, calling can sometimes just bleed chips and raising can build a big pot
with a hand you do not want to play big pots with. Much depends on the preflop
betting, your opponent’s range and the texture of the board.
Overall raising may well be the most profitable play, but it will certainly not be
appropriate all of the time. Players who enjoy floating flops in position may prefer
to just call, but to make a profit you will need to get accurate reads on your
opponents’ hands and make clever decisions on the turn and river.
PS5 is normally superior to PS4 in that not only do you have position, but your
opponent has also shown weakness on the flop. If you remember from the previous
chapter PS5 was fairly straightforward. Betting is nearly always going to be the
most profitable play with middle pair.
With bottom pair the same is true. Betting is still going to achieve good non-
showdown winnings and for that reason it remains a favourite, but the showdown
value of bottom pair is not attractive, so checking behind on the flop to keep the pot
smaller is not always a crazy idea, especially on a dry board when you want to
play a small pot.
Generally you should bet in PS5, but if it fails to secure a fold, try and get to
showdown as cheaply as possible, frequently folding to opponents’ bets on the turn
or river. Always fold to a check-raise on the flop.
The decision in PS6 of whether to lead out or to start with a check is very similar
and every bit as difficult as it was in the previous chapter. Bottom pair and middle
pair are frequently enough to justify leading the betting in short-handed games, but it
is hard to make a lot of money. Starting with a check will feel more natural to
traditional players. My advice is experiment with both plays and to use your
database to see which makes more money. Personally, I have thousands of examples
and the difference between the two plays is so minimal it is impossible to cast
judgement.
In a raised pot, it will make a lot more sense to start with a check whereas in an
unraised pot leading the betting may be preferable. If you do want to make an
aggressive play, always consider the check-raise as an alternative to leading out.

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Note that check-raising light will be more effective against stronger players.
In this chapter I have not talked about multi-way pots. Overall you should be far
less inclined to throw chips into the pot with bottom pair against more than one
opponent. Regularly giving up on these pots will save you money in the long run.
On the other hand, C-betting or making one strong play at a pot when you are the
preflop aggressor is still perfectly fine, but do not get drawn into a big pot when
holding bottom pair.
Summary:
Try not to build big pots unless your hand improves
Call or raise? Play through both actions in your mind before deciding
It is almost always correct to bet again behind a check-raise
Try and plan your betting line at the flop stage
Always fold to a check-raise on the flop
Note that check-raising light will be more effective against stronger
players
Chapter 17: One pair – Paired board (two overcards)
Having 2 overcards on a flop will give you a potential 6 outs or a 24% of
improving your hand on the turn or river. In itself this is not great, but when
combined with either additional outs (draws) or fold equity (non-showdown
winnings) you can still make money on these boards. As usual, the key is to be the
preflop raiser and to be in position.
From previous chapters you will know that paired boards are dangerous. They
pose a genuine threat, especially in deeper-stacked situations as you could be
gambling with a 0% chance of winning. On the flip side, these boards are usually
dry and you may also recall that dry boards are to be attacked. Immediately this
creates conflicting ideals, so finding optimum betting lines is complex and much
debated.
SPR (Stack to Pot Relative Risk 1P PB 2O -
Ratio) Committed?
0-3 Very low 50%
4-6 Low 15%
7-10 Medium No
11-14 High No
15+ Very high No

For the remaining chapters, the SPR tables are of limited value in understanding

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your commitment to the hand as much will depend on your high card and your
opponents’ ranges. I have included them for completion, nonetheless.
PS1 is straightforward on the flop as a C-bet is almost always going to be the best
play. It gets interesting when the villain calls or check-raises. Knowing when to
continue betting on the turn is very difficult indeed. In deep-stacked situations you
really need to keep control of the pot size, so if you do make a second postflop
attempt at winning the pot, try not to overinvest. It is entirely credible to make 40%
of the pot-sized bets on both flop and turn when the board is dry.
In lower SPR situations you may find yourself committed to flops if you are holding
a strong ace or have re-raised preflop. Try and define how committed you are as
soon as the flop comes down. Generally you are going to be making chips through
non-showdown rather than through showdown, so be focused on making your
opponent fold, but at the same time avoid costly showdowns. Frequent, small bets
help to achieve these conflicting goals.
If your intention is to just make one postflop attempt to take down the pot, or if the
SPR is low and there is only “room” for one bet, then make the C-bet larger.
Bluffing all-in on the flop or turn is not normally advisable, but in low SPR
situations against a strong opponent who you have a good read on, if you can
realistically represent a massive hand, you might be able to steal a few pots this
way.
Remember that the natural play to represent trips or better is usually going to be a
slower play, so good opponents may not be fooled by an all-in and loose opponents
will call too often for it to be profitable.
Here is an example of one of these boards in PS1. I have raised from the button
holding 78 hearts and been called by the big blind (PS1 and SPR 5). I C-bet 40% of
the pot at a flop of 6d 2s 2c and 5h came on the turn:

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The fact that I pick up a straight draw on the turn certainly makes it more attractive
to double-barrel. Lots of good things can happen on the river in case he calls. I
would also recommend betting again at a strong high card which you can
realistically represent. Remember if you bet half the pot and your opponent is
going to fold at least 1 in 3 times, your bet will register a profit. That profit is
purely through non-showdown earnings. Take the time to think through the postflop
checklist and ask yourself: “How often can I make him fold?”
In PS2 you immediately face a problem postflop as an opponent is betting at a
board you have missed. Throughout this book I have stressed the importance of
assessing what the opponent’s bet means and once again this will be critical in
making a decision. Folding is a safe option, which will result in a small net loss,
but it is negative and should be reserved for times when you believe your opponent
is playing a tight range or has hit something.
If you are facing a loose villain, whose donk-bet you do not respect, you should
choose between calling and raising. The size of the donk-bet may influence your
decision. I prefer attacking small-sized donk-bets as they are invariably weaker. If
you have also picked up a draw, calling is going to become more attractive as an
option. You should be more inclined to raise when you have only a few outs and
to call when you have many outs. This may seem irrational, but you are balancing
your showdown and non-showdown potential for profit. When you do not have
enough showdown equity, often you should choose fold or raise.
In this example, I face a stop and go, a donk-bet all-in. I hold ATo and the flop is 2s
6c 2c: (PS2 and SPR3.5)

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Calling an all-in is always a black and white decision. There is a right and wrong
answer that can be derived mathematically. The difficult part is calculating my
equity against my opponent’s range. If I am behind right now, I will not be winning
much more than 1 in 4 times. If I am ahead, though, I could be winning 3 out of 4
times. Overall, it is 1,880 to win 2,380, giving me odds of 1.27-1 or required
equity of 44%.
Against a tighter opponent, this would be a marginal decision. As it happens, I
believe the villain is playing a wide range and his high donk-bet percentage of 82%
makes this an easy call. I will have at least 55% equity against his range. Note that
if the SPR were higher or if my opponent were tighter, this decision would get more
difficult.
Understanding opponents’ donk-betting tendencies is critical to playing in PS2.
In PS3 you want to be mixing up C-bets with check-raises. Both are very strong
options.
In PS4, you are facing a C-bet and you are going to find it very difficult to make an
overall profit with just overcards in your hand. Much will depend on how strong
your hand is relative to your opponent’s range. Try and avoid entering pots as the
defender in the hand. You should be tending to choose re-raise or fold preflop.
In this example I hold AK diamonds on the button early in an SNG and a tight,
aggressive opponent raises 4x from the cutoff. In cash games and MTTs re-raising
preflop is optimum here, but in a standard structure STT I far prefer calling preflop
to limit the possibility of going broke too early. The flop is 5h 5s 9c: (PS4 and SPR

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5)
When the standard C-bet arrives, I could certainly raise and try and shut down the
hand now. However, when you are facing an aggressive opponent, floating can
be more profitable than raising. In addition, when I am in position I am far more
inclined to choose call rather than raise as I maintain my positional advantage
across the next two streets. Good players will be very concerned when a strong
opponent just flat-calls their bet. It may sometimes be even more scary than a raise.
The big concern for me here is that my opponent holds a pocket pair. If he does, he
will make a second bet. If he does not, he may elect to check. On this occasion, the
weak check on the turn (Qh) is the signal for me to take over:

The queen is a high card and I would expect a double-barrel here. When he fails to

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bet, it is essential that I take over. If I am check-raised or even check-called, I know
I am in trouble, but I believe my bet will be successful a high percentage of the time
because when aggressive opponents check postflop, it is often a sign of
weakness. Here the villain folded and I took the pot without risking too much.
Calling is not always the best play in PS4. If you enter the pot with weak cards, you
will have to be prepared to fold frequently. Much depends on your strength versus
your opponent’s range.
In PS5 there is not a lot new to say. Betting is nearly always the right option, even
in multi-way pots. If you are check-raised, then fold.
PS6 is not a profitable situation, so with just 2 overcards you ought to be check-
folding a large percentage of the time, especially in limped pots. Pick your
moments to attack carefully. If there are no draws on the board and it has missed the
raiser’s range, check-raising can be quite attractive and will have a high success
rate. Check-raising with 2 overcards is a strong, modern play and works well
against both strong and weak opponents. If you try it, avoid wet boards. I do not
like check-calling unless I have a draw to go with my overcards. Donk-betting is an
alternative if check-raising is too expensive or the raiser has a habit of not C-
betting. Make the donk-bet a large size (close to pot size) to secure more fold
equity.
Here, I am playing in the big blind during the early stages of an SNG. In a limped
pot, I have opted to just check preflop with my AJo and see a cheap flop (once
again early SNG strategy requires a more defensive preflop approach than other
formats). After the UTG players bets small at a flop of 2h 6c 2d, the other players
fold and I have ideal circumstances for check-raising. It is a very dry board and I
am ahead of my opponent’s range. He called the raise and the turn was 2c:

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Make sure you bet behind your check-raise. Here it is an entirely comfortable bet
and my weak, passive opponent folded. On low stakes tables, you will find players
frequently call check-raises and then fold to your bet on the next street. In this hand
the turn card is entirely irrelevant to my bet. I will make the same bet regardless of
what comes.
Summary:
Paired boards are dangerous in deep-stacked situations
Dry boards are good to attack, especially with check-raises
Floating can be appropriate in PS4
When attacking focus on your non-showdown potential, “How often will
he fold?”
Raise with few outs; call with many outs (balance showdown/non-
showdown potential)
Understanding opponents’ donk-betting tendencies is critical to playing
in PS2
Generally fold to aggression

Chapter 18: One pair – Paired board (one or no overcards)

It does make a difference having even one overcard to fall back on when you
progress in a pot, so be aware that I am combining two slightly different flops into
one chapter.
In the previous chapter I stated that you should be focused on non-showdown
winnings rather than showdown winnings. This is even more true now that you have

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vastly reduced showdown equity.
This means that almost your entire calculation is the bluffing value of your hand.
In turn, this places considerable weight on all the other postflop dimensions. In
order to succeed playing these flops aggressively you need to be able to make your
opponent(s) fold a high percentage of the time.
In low SPR situations, your commitment level to poor flops will depend hugely on
your perceived fold equity percentage and also your high card. In higher SPR spots,
if you bluff at pots it is usually sensible to give up should the first bluff fail.
SPR (Stack to Pot Relative Risk 1P PB 1 or 0O -
Ratio) Committed?
0-3 Very low 35%
4-6 Low 10%
7-10 Medium No
11-14 High No
15+ Very high No

For all postflop scenarios I do not recommend betting into multi-way pots. In PS1
you can attempt a C-bet against 2 opponents, but you need to believe you have a
good chance of making both players fold and the pair on the board should be a low
card - a card unlikely to have hit their ranges. Remember for a half pot-sized bet
your success rate must be at least 33%, preferably higher. Sometimes checking
behind in position and taking the next card for free is going to offer better value.
Any type of bluff into multiple opponents is going to have a drastically reduced
success rate.
Against one opponent a C-bet in PS1 remains the standard play and will make a
small profit. When you are called or raised, that will usually signal the end of your
hand. If the hand reaches the turn card, on average you are going to lose money,
unless you play super-tight preflop.
To justify a second bet at the turn, you need to have either hit the turn, picked up a
draw or to be able to credibly represent a hand. When your turn bet is a bluff or a
semi-bluff, you must be focused on asking how often you can make your opponent
fold. Rarely will it be often enough to justify the bet. Unless you are playing
against the same opponents very regularly, it is unlikely your HUD data will be
specific enough to help you much with this decision, so it is usually best to play
safe and avoid bluffing.
If the hand reaches the turn card and you believe you have some showdown equity
(usually with an ace high hand), make sure you check the turn and river or call a

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small bet on the river (R,B,X,X/C). This is a far superior line to betting again at the
turn card. Checking behind on the turn is an important form of pot control that
should prevent you from losing large pots when in position.
Here I demonstrate exactly this:

I am heads-up, so the calling range of my opponent is loose enough to believe that

my ace high could be in front at all stages in the hand. When the villain calls the
standard C-bet, I have to be concerned that he may hold a king or a pocket pair. If I
bet again on the turn, I will likely only be called by hands that are beating me.
Checking behind allows me to get to a cheaper showdown and creates the
possibility for my opponent to bluff at the river. That is what happened in this hand
as the villain made a 40% bet at the river card, adding significantly to my winnings.
In PS2 you need to once again assess the meaning of the donk-bet. If you consider it
to be a sign of strength then fold, but be aware that many players have a habit of
donk-betting into paired boards or dry flops just to pick up a cheap pot. Try not to
fold too often. If you have a piece of a draw, you might want to call and see the turn
card cheaply. If you view the donk-bet as a weak bet, raising achieves the most. It
acts like a continuation bet as it forces your opponent into another action. Here is
an example where I would often choose to raise against a weak opponent’s donk-
bet: (PS2 and SPR3)

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All three options are problematic, but raising is the only one which gains
immediate fold equity. Against a strong opponent, calling would make more sense
as this is the logical play in order to represent the king. Against a weaker opponent,
calling does not work as well here as it gives the villain an opportunity to bet again
at the turn, at which point I would have to fold without ever having gained any fold
equity. A strong player will rarely be leading out of position on both flop and turn
without a strong hand, so calling on the flop is more successful as I gain useful
information just by seeing whether he bets again at the turn. If he does not, I can
take over the betting on the turn without every committing too many chips.
Understanding your opponents is critical in order to find the best betting lines.
In PS3 you will find C-betting a frustrating experience. Opponents love to float
these boards in position, looking to knock you off the hand later. They will do this
with and without strong hands and it is very difficult to play against. As is often the
case in PS3, check-raising light is a popular and credible option. It is certainly the
most profitable according to my database. It shuts down hands early and that is a
good thing when you are out of position.

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Here is a an example from heads-up play where I have raised out of position
preflop and opted to check-raise the flop (PS3 and SPR2.5). It is helpful, but not
necessary to have a draw, even just a gutshot. In the event that my opponent calls, I
have an 8% chance of hitting the turn card. I can add this 8% to my fold equity to
work out whether the check-raise is worthwhile. In these types of spots your bluff
will work a very high percentage of the time, so showdown equity is a bonus, not a
requirement.
In this example note that I choose to check-raise the minimum, but usually you
should aim for 2.5x your opponent’s bet, or close to the pot size. When the SPR is
as low as this, you will rarely get the chance to check-raise flops, but it is still
feasible. I like the fact that my bet makes me appear committed to the hand, when in
fact I can easily fold to an all-in re-raise. Check-raising with average draws is
discussed again in part 7.
In PS4 you need to consider the tournament situation and preflop betting to put your
opponent on a range. You have the advantage of sitting in position on a board that
neither player is likely to have connected with. Against an opponent playing a
narrow range, I am frequently going to fold to the C-bet. If the villain is playing a
wider range though I might call the C-bet in position with a plan of taking over the
betting on the turn. That means that if the opponent checks the turn, I will bet and if
he bets at the turn I will make a brave raise. It is a strategy that works very well,
but it requires a commitment to invest chips across flop and turn.

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This is an example of exactly this strategy (PS4 and SPR3). My opponent has min-
raised preflop and C-bet the flop and I have decided to follow this line. Seeing
flops in position in high SPR situations against opponents playing wide ranges
opens up possibilities to win chips. After I call the C-bet, the villain bet very small
at the turn. Once again it helps that I have a gutshot and it helps that my opponent
shows weakness with the small-sized bet, but raising the turn (C/C/R) is frightening
for any player not holding at least an ace. The success rate is high.
More commonly you will find that (C/C/B) is the betting pattern as your opponent
will frequently check the turn. Remember at all points in all of these hands you
should be folding to any sign of aggression or to opponents playing tight ranges.
PS5 is simple. You should be betting every time, except when you know your
opponent has a habit of check-raising flops out of position. You do not need to make
further bets beyond this one. It will work often enough to turn a profit, but there is
no need to invest further chips on the turn if your hand does not improve, and
sometimes even if it does.
PS6 is never simple. In limped pots where you are sat in the blinds your investment
in the pot is minimal and check-folding is a cheap solution to the problem. The first
thing to think about when you consider an alternative to check-folding is your
opponent’s range. It is not worth attacking tight aggressive opponents.
If you do decide to make a play, go for the check-raise. Leading the betting is
inferior by a long way and check-calling makes no sense at all unless you are
drawing.

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Heads-up is a good time to make these types of attacking plays as opponents are
playing wider ranges. This is a limped pot and even though the board is slightly wet
for check-raising, I decided to try it on the flop (SPR 8). When my opponent called,
I had plenty of betting space to make a cheap turn bet, which made him fold. It
helped that the turn card was an ace, but any turn card would have done.
The drier the board is the higher the success rate of the bluff check-raise. Here
I still think it will work often enough to make it far more profitable than check-
folding. All the data I have gathered suggests I should be making this play for more
often.
Summary:
Focus on how often you can make your opponent fold (non-showdown
winnings)
Tend to just fold against tight, aggressive opponents playing narrow
ranges
Bluffing into multiple opponents will have a very low success rate
Understanding your opponents is critical in order to find the best betting
lines
Out of position (PS3 & 6) consider the check-raise
Generally fold to aggression

Chapter 19: High card (two overcards)

This flop is similar to the flop in chapter 17 which also deals with a two overcard
flop. In some ways I prefer this flop as when you hit one of your overcards, you are

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able to unleash bets which would be dangerous on paired boards. In deep-stacked
situations this is particularly poignant as there is never that nagging doubt that your
opponent may have flopped trips.
On the other hand, an unpaired board means your opponent, depending on his range,
will have a higher chance of having hit the board, either directly or by picking up a
draw. That reduces your fold equity slightly when making aggressive postflop bets.
Again I include the SPR table for completion, but too much depends on your hole
cards and the preflop betting for this to warrant more than a glance.
SPR (Stack to Pot Relative Risk High Card 2O -
Ratio) Committed?
0-3 Very low 50%
4-6 Low 15%
7-10 Medium No
11-14 High No
15+ Very high No

You will often have picked up some kind of draw to go with your 2 overcards and
in those situations you should be far more likely to choose aggressive options
postflop. In this chapter I am focused on situations where you have no draw (or at
most a backdoor draw).
In PS1 C-betting is by far and away the best option. You ought to be C-betting close
to 100% of these flops and hoping your opponent folds. Against 2 opponents you
should still C-bet most of the time. There were examples of this type of flop in the
chapter on AK in Volume 1. You add your 6 potential outs (12% chance to hit the
turn card) to your fold equity (around 45-50%) and you have a clearly profitable
situation. Even if the hand progresses to the turn, you have position and control and
a double-barrel will usually be profitable, especially if you have picked up
additional outs.
In this example I am playing heads-up and raise from the button with KTo. My
opponent calls and we see a flop of 4d 6s 7s: (PS1 and SPR 5.5)

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This is a poor flop for my hand and so I have high hopes that a C-bet (note the
slightly higher bet size for the wet board) will work. It is an ugly situation and it
never feels particularly good throwing chips into the pot, but you have to trust in the
power of the C-bet and remember that your opponent will have missed the board
frequently as well. On this occasion the villain called and we saw a turn card of
Ac:

This is a super card for the preflop raiser and it gives me an opportunity to claim
the pot. Never be afraid of a high card you can represent and try and be the first to
take a stab at it. Here I am able to put my opponent to a decision for his tournament

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life. He will likely check-raise if he has an ace and I have an easy fold. If he has
draw, he is out of position on the river and will be unable to take advantage (I will
fold to a bet on the river).
Playing heads-up in PS1 rewards aggressive play, so be prepared to risk some
chips and bluff at pots.
In PS2 a donk-bet provides you with a headache. Folding, calling and raising all
have problems. If the donk-bet is small in size, I would tend to choose raise. Pay
attention to the size of the donk-bet. If the donk-bet is properly sized (more than
40%) then folding may be smarter. Logically the larger the bet, the more likely you
should be to fold. It mainly depends on what you believe that donk-bet represents.
In the absence of any draws, calling will usually be a weaker option, but that does
not mean you should never call, it means you should have a plan for the turn.
One of the pitfalls of progressing in pots in PS2 is that donk-bettors will sometimes
include sets and two pair in their ranges. This can lead to you losing large pots
when you wind up hitting an overcard on the turn or river. If you accurately assess
their range on the flop, this can help you to choose fold against opponents with
narrow ranges. Most good players have low donk-bet percentages, so anyone with
solid-looking VPIP and PFR statistics who donk-bets at one of these flops is often
worth folding to.
In PS3 you have the problem of being out of position, so seeing the turn and river
card is unattractive. Either go for a decent sized C-bet, which will be borderline in
terms of profitability, or on dry boards try an aggressive check-raise. Your two
overcards provide some showdown equity in the event that the check-raise is
called, but the reason for the play is to maximise your potential to make your
opponent fold. C-betting just does not have the same success rate and often leaves
you in a nasty position on the turn.
Check-raising light in PS3 is particularly effective against good players who
will always bet in PS5 (they are in PS5 when you are in PS3). It is a great counter-
play to the strategy which I advocate in PS5, which is always to make a bet. The
fact is that most players do not check-raise these situations and it is rarely
perceived as a bluff, or semi-bluff. For these reasons it makes opponents fold
frequently. Remember to choose boards you think your opponents have missed and
ensure the SPR is high enough. If you are going to risk the check-raise in low SPR
spots you will need to commit to the hand either with the check-raise, or with an
all-in on the turn.
If you C-bet the flop and get called, you are going to lose money on average. There
is no shame in check-folding the turn card. Only progress with a turn bet if you have
hit the turn, you are pot-committed or if you have a strong belief that you can still

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make your opponent fold. Your showdown equity at this stage is of small
consequence, though you can factor this in by counting your outs and multiplying by
2.
Here I am playing heads-up and have raised out of position preflop with K9o. The
villain called and we saw a flop of 8c 6d 4s. I C-bet the flop, was called again and
the turn card (5h) brought no joy:

I have missed the board, I am not pot-committed and I do not believe I can make my
opponent fold often with another bet. The fact that I have a potential 10 outs or 20%
showdown equity is not enough of a reason to continue betting, especially when
those outs are not guaranteed. I chose to check-fold when my opponent bet and
moved on to the next hand.
In PS4 your problem is different. You have a poor flop and are faced by aggression
from your opponent. This is not a good combination and despite being in position,
you are not going to make a profit unless you have a piece of a draw. The default
play is to fold to the C-bet. If the C-bet is small in size or you suspect weakness for
any reason, you could choose to call. Raising is good if you can represent
something, but you do not need to raise immediately. You could delay it until the
turn card.
If you do call on the flop, it helps to have a strong ace as you will be ahead
sometimes. You can take over the betting on the turn should your opponent check,
thus gaining control without risking many chips.
In blind-on-blind situations or during heads-up play, you should be far less willing
to fold on the flop and far more willing to call or raise.

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In this example I am in a 6-max bubble with 2 regulars and I am one of the two
smaller stacks. The other smaller stack raises from the small blind and I call with
KTo, seeing a flop of 2c 7s 5c: (PS4 and SPR 4)

I believe my opponent will have raised with around 30 to 50% of his hand range,
hoping to make me fold cheaply. This board is unlikely to have helped him much, so
I have little thought of folding. Responding aggressively to his C-bet I have two
options: I can call now and take over on the turn with a bet or raise, or I can raise
now and look to end the action.
The problem with trying to delay the action until the turn is the low SPR. I am going
to become pot-committed if I raise the turn, which is why you should not follow that
line in low SPR spots. It would give him the opportunity of betting at the turn first
and putting me in a decision for my tournament life. The raise I choose is very much
influenced by the tournament situation and forcing my savvy opponent into giving
me real information about the strength of his hand. It is a 500 chip investment to win
a pot of 630, so it needs to work just less than 50% of the time to show a profit,
excluding any showdown equity. I believe it will work around 70% of the time here
despite the flush draw, making it highly profitable. The villain folded.
Betting in PS5 remains an absolute must, despite its predictability. Do not worry
about what your cards or the flop look like, the bet itself will turn a profit for its
non-showdown value alone. The only exception is if you know your opponent
routinely check-raises.
In PS6 there will be a vast majority of hands and situations you will want to check-
fold. If you make a decision to play aggressively in a raised pot, start with a check.
It has many advantages over leading the betting. You can look at your opponents’

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bets first and then choose between folding, calling and raising. Check-raising is a
good option and your two overcards provide some security.
In unraised pots, leading the betting is attractive, but I still recommend the check-
raise as your weapon of choice. It simply secures the most fold equity and that is
where most of the value is.
In the absence of any draws check-calling is not usually your best option unless you
have a really good reason.
Summary:
In PS1 you ought to be optimistic and aggressive
In PS2 remember to assess the donk-bet; pay attention to the donk-bet
size
Try check-raising in PS3 as an alternative to C-betting
Tend to fold in PS4 and PS6, unless you sense weakness

Chapter 20: High card (one or no overcards)

To round off this part of the book, I want to deal with the very weakest of flops.
Although these are some of the most common of flops, it is very rare that they result
in you winning or losing a large pot, so for that reason I have not spent too much
time in this part of the postflop universe.
Usually if you are going to make an attempt to win pots on these flops, you are
looking for a quick fold from your opponent(s). If the first attempt fails, it is
unlikely a second attempt is going to be worthwhile given your lack of showdown
equity. You will still get double-barrelling opportunities, but outright bluffing is a
difficult skill and you need to choose the right spots to attempt it.
SPR (Stack to Pot Relative Risk HC (1 or 0O) -
Ratio) Committed?
0-3 Very low 35%
4-6 Low 10%
7-10 Medium No
11-14 High No
15+ Very high No

In PS1, you will still make a small profit on these flops as long as you commit to
making a C-bet against 1 or 2 players. That is really as far as the analysis goes. If
you fail to pick up a draw or a high card on the turn, you should give up on the hand
and move on. There are exceptions of course, but in general you want to be

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minimising your investments on these flops and saving your chips for better
situations.
PS2 is one of those most frustrating of poker situations that good players enjoy
debating, whilst banging their heads against the wall. There are plenty of situations
in No Limit Hold’em where good strategies simply do not exist. In the absence of
any draws, folding should be top of your list of options here. It feels wrong to give
up on pots when you are the aggressor preflop and you make no attempt to win the
pot postflop. It should feel wrong, but in PS2, you are choosing between three
different “wrong” options, from which folding is the least wrong!
There are of course opportunities for elaborate bluffs in postflop situations where
you have missed the board. I am going to discuss bluffing and semi-bluffing in the
next part of the book. If all the other factors favour an aggressive play, it is not
impossible to try and “make a play” on these missed flops, but in general the odds
are stacked against you. In PS2 your position is your only saving grace, but to make
a move you also need a strong understanding of your opponent’s playing style and
likely hand range.
When you arrive in PS3 the only thing keeping you going is your momentum as the
preflop aggressor. A solid 70% C-bet is normally the best solution to the problem
in front of you. I do not recommend much deviation from this strategy when you
have neither draws nor overcards to rely on. See the C-bet as an outright bluff
which will succeed or fail and hopefully break even in the long run. Against
players who almost never fold to a C-bet you might even be better check-folding.
The C-bet in PS1 and PS3 is fairly straightforward on these flops. In 80% of cases
when the hand reaches the turn card, your hand is finished.
In PS4 you ought to be folding almost always. You need some piece of the action to
justify continuing in the betting.
In PS5 you can use the same logic that has been cited in the previous few chapters
to work out that a bet will gain you a significant amount of fold equity. It is that fold
equity which makes the bet profitable. The only time I would consider checking in
PS5 on these boards is if my opponent were a habitual check-raiser or if I desired a
small pot.
In PS6 you are in the very darkest part of the postflop universe; you ought to be
check-folding the vast majority of the time. In limped pots there may be some
advantage in making a bluff donk-bet in certain spots, but it is not the sort of play
you want to make a habit of. Assuming you have no draws, check-fold even to the
smallest of bets.
Summary:

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 These are the very weakest of all flops
Continue to C-bet in PS1 and PS3
Tend to fold in PS2
Tend to fold in PS4 and PS6, unless you sense weakness
Part 7: Drawing
Chapter 21: General Drawing Advice
Drawing too often is a common leak in many players’ games. Try and ensure that
you limit the number of occasions when you decide to draw to situations when the
odds are stacked in your favour. I will explain what good and bad situations are
throughout this part of the book.
A draw is a gamble with a risk/reward ratio. To be competent at assessing this you
need to be able to identify the strength of your draw by counting your likely outs,
work out your pot odds, consider future betting and understand implied odds.
There are online programs with drills that help with this part of the game if you
struggle with it eg Ace Poker Drills. It can be mastered simply through practicing
and using the correct thought processes, though mental arithmetic skills do help
considerably - you do not need to be great at mathematics, just competent is enough
to get you by.
Ideally you should be able to stare at a flop for a split second and immediately
know both your likely outs and your percentage chance of improving. If this
troubles you, set yourself an objective for improving this skill.
Having position is a huge advantage when drawing. You should be far more willing
to take on a draw in position than out of position. Your preflop hand selection
should reflect this.
I mention position in particular for drawing hands, but actually all of the
dimensions are important, so here is a quick reminder of the list.
PREFLOP POSTFLOP
Tournament situation Tournament situation
Position Number of Opponents
Stack sizes Relative Position
Opponent Information SPR (stack to pot ratio)
Action in front of you Opponent Information
Active players behind you Preflop and Postflop Betting
Pot odds Your hand strength
Your hole cards Opponent(s)’ likely hand strength
Texture of flop

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 Odds and outs
Implied odds (future betting)
Betting patterns and bet sizing

In general there are 3 possible responses you can make to a drawing situation on a
flop. You can either decline the draw by folding, draw defensively by
calling/check-calling or draw aggressively by betting/raising. Try to ensure you
understand which of these you are adopting rather than making decisions on auto-
pilot.
Normally aggressive actions are more profitable than defensive ones as they
give you the opportunity to win chips either through showdown or non-
showdown. In heads-up situations it nearly always makes more sense to play draws
aggressively. Although checking and calling will often feel natural (and are
sometimes correct) try not to underestimate the power of betting, raising (and
folding).
In multi-way pots defensive drawing can be more profitable as you have less fold
equity and better pot odds (and implied odds) for when you make your draw.
I mentioned in the preface to the book the dilemma I was faced with when choosing
how to structure the order of the book. After some debate I chose to order it by
hand quality and this part of the book follows suit. After a brief word on game
formats, I will start with strong draws and work my way down to lower quality
draws.
Chapter 22: How game format effects drawing
The way you decide to play a drawing hand will depend hugely on the format of the
game you are playing. Cash game players do not need to worry about tournament
survival, bubbles or ICM factors and can make decisions based purely on the most
+EV play.
MTT players have more to consider as the stack sizes and tournament situations of
all the active players will affect each player’s motivations. SNG players have to
place a great emphasis on survival during the early phases and then on attack during
the endgame. These factors make a huge difference as to how drawing hands should
be played in No Limit Hold’em.
Cash game players will tend to be deep-stacked and see many high SPR flops
which suit drawing hands, whereas tournament players, especially turbo players,
will see very few flops with high SPRs. For this reason hands such as suited
connectors are more valuable in cash game play than in tournaments. The
higher the SPR, the more profitable drawing hands become.

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Successful cash game players will play many drawing hands aggressively, making
profitable bluffs and semi-bluffs against opponents who are unlikely to have hit the
flop hard enough to call. Tournament players get fewer opportunities to make these
types of moves because of the lower average SPR. In cash games there is a far
greater focus on having or representing very strong hands, whereas in tournaments
weaker hands go to showdown more frequently.
The higher the SPR is, the more dangerous it is to draw to non-nut draws,
especially in multi-way pots. You want to avoid losing huge pots with a flush
against a bigger flush. Particularly in cash games you should be less inclined to get
aggressive with draws when an opponent is likely to hold a better draw.
Before going any further with drawing hands, please ensure you are familiar with
the following table. You need to understand how likely your hand is to improve on
the turn or river and this table gives you the accurate percentages. Alternatively,
you can always use the “4 and 2 rule” by multiplying your number of outs by 4 on
the flop and by 2 on the turn. This gives you a rough estimate of your percentage
chance of improving your hand. Note that this is not always the same as your
percentage chance of winning the hand, which will of course also depend on your
opponent(s)’s hand(s).

The next three chapters will tackle strong, average and weak quality draws in some
detail. There will be some deliberate repetition of key concepts to help add clarity

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to a tricky area of the postflop universe.
Chapter 23: 14 outs or more (strong draws)
Whenever you have 14 outs or more, your hand will improve more than half of the
time. Up and down straight draws with 2 overcards have 14 outs and flush draws
with 2 overcards have 15 outs. More than 15 outs is relatively uncommon. The
great thing about these draws is that normally you are going to have the right odds
to pursue your draw.
You will occasionally need to fold though. It is important to listen carefully to your
opponents’ bets and think about their ranges and the board texture. If two
opponents show postflop aggression do not be afraid to lay down a strong draw.
A paired board is a particularly dangerous board for drawing hands as opponents
may already have made a full house. A paired board should make you far less
willing to pursue a draw.
Obviously the higher the quality of the draw, the more likely you should be to
pursue it, so if you have as many as 21 outs, your raw odds are so good that folding
would be a folly.
SPR (Stack to Pot Relative Risk Strong Draw
Ratio) Committed?
0-3 Very low Yes
4-6 Low 90%
7-10 Medium 20%
11-14 High 5%
15+ Very high 5%

The SPR table for drawing hands offers only very general guidance. If you happen
to flop a draw in a short-stacked situation, you will often be forced into committing
to the hand as you will have the right odds to gamble.
In deeper-stacked situations, you will want to exercise caution as opponents
willing to gamble all their chips in high SPR spots will generally hold better than 1
pair. Your likely outs could reduce to 9, 8, 7 or even 0 on paired boards.
In PS1, C-betting is the obvious and correct choice, especially in multi-way pots. If
you are tempted to try and draw negatively, try and remind yourself of the combined
power of the C-bet. The fold equity added to your showdown equity is hugely
powerful.
When you encounter opposition and a villain raises, calling in position will usually
be the right choice. If you feel the raise may be a bluff or a semi-bluff, you may

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decide to re-raise, sometimes with an all-in. Pushing all your chips in with a strong
draw on the flop is a perfectly acceptable play, especially in lower SPR spots.
Sometimes your opponent will turn over a set or two pair, but overall gambling
makes more sense than folding, especially with very strong draws.
When a villain calls your C-bet you ought normally to double-barrel on the turn. As
long as you believe you have some chance of making your opponent fold, betting
again will add fold equity to your 1 in 3 chance of hitting the river. Checking behind
is cheaper, but it loses some of the momentum you have gathered on the previous
streets and you will wind up losing the pot more often. Even when this bet fails and
you miss the river card, it may be possible to win the pot by triple-barreling the
river.
In the first example hand I have raised with A4s from the cutoff and been called by
the big blind to see a flop of 5d 6s 8s: (PS1, SPR 10)

With strong draws I tend to C-bet slightly smaller than usual. If you ask yourself the
question “Do I want to see the next card?” and the answer is yes, then large bets are
unnecessary. It comes down to the balance between the relative value of
showdown and non-showdown equity. You definitely want some of both, but with
strong draws there is a leaning towards showdown equity, especially with good
implied odds.
As in the previous example, I might make a flush here at the same time as my
opponent makes a straight or a even a weaker flush, so the implied odds are strong.
I C-bet 40% of the pot and I am check-raised. The SPR is large enough for me to
just call the check-raise and go ahead and call a turn bet too. Unless the turn bet is

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huge, I will still have good odds on the turn if you combine my pot odds with my
implied odds. In situations where the check-raise is large relative to the effective
stack, you might need to choose fold or shove all-in and it can be a difficult choice.
Here, I called and the turn was 3h:

At this point my opponent deviates from normal play by checking behind his check-
raise. This is a sign of weakness and under most circumstances, you should try and
take back control of the betting again. Betting again on the turn is how you achieve
this (R/BC/B).
Even though I may have as many as 18 outs, my showdown equity is a maximum of
39% only, so at this point I want to supplement that with some fold equity. Checking
behind is negative. It loses that supplement and makes it harder to win the hand on
the river.
I bet half the pot and hope my opponent folds. If he check-raises the turn card, I
would need to discount all hopes of making him fold in the hand and decide how to
proceed based purely on my showdown EV. Often, I would have to call and then
fold if I miss the river. If he check-calls, I will either be value-betting or making a
small bluff on the river. In this instance my opponent held KJ spades, check-called
and we both made a flush on the river, where the rest of the chips inevitably went
in.
PS2 is an interesting one. Much will depend on your assessment of your opponent’s
range, whether there are other active villains and, in tournaments, your situation.
Calling is the solid, default play as you have position and your drawing odds are
good. It is especially logical in multi-way pots. Raising makes more sense with
weaker quality draws as your desire to shut the hand down is greater.

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Here I have raised from the hijack with AKs and been called by the small blind to
see a flop of Jd 9h 4d: (PS2, SPR 4)

As the SPR is quite low, I could maximise my fold equity by raising, potentially
all-in, but the donk-bet is not huge and I can get away with just calling and seeing
what he does on the turn. Often he will stop betting and allow me to take over the
betting. When I have position, I prefer calling.
The turn card was 8d giving me the nut flush, completing potential straights and
more importantly, creating some additional straight draw possibilities.

If the villain bets again, I can choose between raising and calling depending on his
bet size. It is important to extract maximum value, and often you will achieve that

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by raising now rather than waiting for the river card.
As it transpired, he checked the turn, showing weakness. Tempting as it is to check
behind and feign weakness, this is a mistake. You will lose a lot of profit from
opponents with drawing hands if you fail to bet the turn here. You want to build up
the size of the pot.
I bet half the pot and expected a call or a fold. To my surprise, my opponent raised
all-in, attempting a semi-bluff with 77 (including a diamond). It was an ill-advised
time to make such a move on such a dangerous board.
In PS3, you should be C-betting most of the time. If you are against a single,
aggressive opponent you might want to consider a check-raise from time to time.
With high quality draws I prefer C-betting as I am still fairly happy to see the next
card, but the statistics look strong for check-raising too.
Here, I have raised with 89o out of the small blind at the start of an SNG and the
big blind has called. The flop is 4h 6c 7h: (PS3 and SPR9)

I have an up and up-and-down straight draw with a potential 14 outs.

The implied odds of this type of draw are quite good because I can make the best
straight whilst my opponent could hold a 3 or an 8 and could wind up with a worse
straight. Also, my draw is relatively disguised as I hold 2 cards to the draw,
whereas if I held just a 5, my draw would lack disguise. On the other hand, there is
a possible flush draw against me, which taints any straight draws. In high SPR
situations this matters a lot. Nevertheless, this remains a good draw.
Strong draws are best played with a C-bet. Check-raising is more appropriate as an
alternative when your desire for fold equity is bigger (usually weaker draws). Here

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I elect to C-bet and the turn card is 4d. This is a bad card for me. My showdown
equity has dropped dramatically and my desire for fold equity has increased
proportionately. I could certainly try check-raising now. The problem with this is
when the opponent checks behind you lose a lot of non-showdown winnings. It will
be hard to bluff the river successfully after a betting line of R/B/X/B. The weak
check on the turn suppresses the size of the pot and indicates vulnerability to your
opponent. He will be far less likely to fold to a bluff on the river.
I opt to double-barrel instead, giving me some small amount of fold equity and
continuing to show strength, so a river bluff will have more success. The river card

was Td:
Now betting on the river is a very straightforward decision. I am concerned about
the paired board, but I am committed to the hand. Most likely my opponent only has
a small piece of this or has missed a draw, so a small value bet makes sense.
Surprisingly the villain raised virtually all-in. I shoved and my opponent folded. He
must have held a missed draw and made a brave bluff. This type of bluff will not
succeed often enough against a player prepared to attack all 4 streets and he could
have achieved the same thing with a smaller raise.
This type of flop is considered a bad one for the raiser, so defenders will often
make moves on them. Remember that late position raisers or raisers from the small
blind play wide ranges, so this type of board may easily have connected with the
raiser’s hand, as was the case here.
In PS4 you are choosing between calling and raising a villain’s C-bet. With a strong
drawing hand, calling in position feels like a very natural play. The mindset is
similar to that in PS2 and the choice is not straightforward. Raising is also an
attractive option as it offers you that immediate fold equity. You must not

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underestimate this. Drawing is a fun part of poker and our human gambling instincts
can sometimes cloud our judgement. Ask your postflop questions and be logical. If
your implied odds are strong or you are against multiple opponents you should tend
to call, but otherwise raising may be more profitable.
Note that in PS2 and PS4 when your opponent’s range is particularly narrow and
the board has hit his range, you will have significantly less fold equity and raising
may be the worst of your options. Choose to call and if you are getting poor odds,
do not be afraid of laying down the hand on the turn, even though it is a good draw.
The size of the villain’s donk-bet in PS2 or C-bet in PS4 may also impact your
decision. Raising small bets and calling larger ones makes sense.
In this hand early in an SNG, I am sat on the big blind and have called a min-raise
from the button holding KT spades with the small blind involved too. I am in PS4
against the small blind and PS6 against the button, facing a small donk-bet. The flop
is 5d 9s 8s: (SPR8)

I have picked up a flush draw with a possible 15 outs.

This board immediately strikes me as one where I am thinking about showdown
equity far more than non-showdown. My implied odds are good in that an opponent
could easily make a straight at the same time that I make a flush. This would be
even better if I held the nut flush draw, but unless the SPR is very high, it is not
something you should worry about unduly.
The fact that I am in a multi-way pot makes calling by far the most attractive play
here. It is also the early stages of an SNG, so defensive drawing is usually
preferable.

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The turn card was Kc, giving me top pair. The small blind bet again and once more
I have to choose between calling and raising. Holding top pair on a wet board
against a loose player, you do want to consider raising for value, but when you hold
a flush draw to go with your top pair, you still want to factor in the implied odds of
allowing that river card to fall cheaply.
In this spot, I would always want to just call the turn bet as raising jeopardises my
chances of seeing the river card, which I so desire to see. I hold just top pair with a
weak kicker and building large pots with one pair is risky. Whilst I am happy to
have top pair, this part of my hand relates to winning a small pot, whereas the flush
draw aspect relates to winning a huge pot. Calling satisfies both aspects. If I did not
hold top pair, raising would have more value as my showdown equity would have
plummetted and my desire for fold equity would have increased. I called and the
river was 7s:

This is an ideal card for me as not only has it completed a flush for me, but it may
have helped my opponent, who could easily have made a straight. When he triple-
barrels with a large bet, I believe he is either bluffing or he has a big hand. In these
types of spots, I always go for the maximum bet size. He will either call or he will
fold in this situation and my bet size will not influence his decision that much, so it
makes sense to get maximum value. He called and showed JT.
You might think that PS5 would be simple. If your opponent fails to C-bet, betting
out gives you fold equity to go with your draw. Leading seems to be the logical
play. My database analysis confirms this, but the gap in average profit between
betting and checking was smaller than I had expected.
Feigning weakness with a check on the flop can sometimes work wonders. It will

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also keep the pot smaller if this is desired. Overall though, you ought to be betting
in PS5 as usual.
In this example hand I have called the cutoff’s min-raise from the button with A7s,
which is a loose preflop play, but I get exactly the type of flop I am looking for
from a small investment: Td 8h 6d (PS5, PS5 and SPR7)

The big blind checked and the cutoff declined to C-bet, giving me the chance to take
over the role of aggressor. I have a likely 15 outs, so I am happy to invite some
action, but I am also content if both opponents fold. A small C-bet achieves both
these goals.
The big blind folded, the cutoff called and the turn card was Qd completing my
flush.

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My opponent, fearing the draws on the board, check-raised the turn card, but failed
to fold when I re-raised. Seeing cheap flops against players who are likely to make
mistakes like this postflop is a good reason for getting involved in marginal
situations. Most weak opponents will be far stronger preflop than postflop, so it
makes sense to maximise your opportunities to exploit those weaknesses. That
involves playing suited aces and suited connectors when it is cheap and you have
position.
In PS6, leading out or donk-betting with a good draw is often the optimum play in
multi-way pots. It is far less clear-cut against a single opponent and you will need
to decide between checking or leading.
In the early stages of SNGs you may prefer to play all draws defensively to avoid
losing big pots, but under some circumstances you should be leading. For me, all
donk-bets feel somewhat unnatural, so this is a situation I have to focus on to ensure
I make the right play. Often when your draw is particularly strong, starting with a
check makes more sense as your desire for fold equity is lower.
Here, I have called a small raise from the small blind with ATo against a button
raiser who seems loose. The flop is 2h 9h 7h: (PS6 and SPR 5.5)

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I have a probable 15 outs even if I am behind now, which is unlikely. My opponent
C-bets almost pot size and I have a decision to make. Flat-calling in position is a
very natural play, but if I miss the turn card, the pot will be so big that my opponent
might shove or go virtually all-in on the turn. If I am going to commit to this hand, I
really need to decide right now. I made that decision and opted to gamble based on
the fairly low SPR.
Having made my mind up to gamble, I need to decide between donk-betting, check-
calling or check-raising, three very different plays. When you think you are ahead
anyway, check-calling is often the best play, but with this low SPR the hand will
likely reach a showdown on the turn, which is not the best street for a drawing
hand. As I am only holding one card to the flush, the draw also lacks disguise, so I
may not win any more chips if a heart does come down.
Donk-betting is also an option, but runs a similar risk of arriving at the turn card
and being forced to fold. The flop is a better street than the turn for moving all
your chips into the middle as your showdown equity will be stronger.
Often out of position I like to let my opponent act first and by doing so, I let my
opponent choose whether we play a huge pot or a smaller one. If I check and he
checks behind, I get a free turn card and I can make a bet at the turn, keeping the pot
smaller, but actively attempting to win the hand. If I check and he bets, I check-
raise, perhaps with an all-in. In this spot, he folded to the check-raise.
The check-raise all-in achieves two goals. First, it maximises my fold equity,
which is a good idea out of position, even with strong draws. Second, it ensures my
showdown equity remains high should my opponent call.
I do not want a call as it is effectively going to be a coin flip and occasionally a lot

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worse (eg against a made flush), but it is far better to gamble with two cards to
come than with just one.
All-in moves on draws often receive criticism, but when you are sat out of position
and you are committed to the hand, they are sometimes the optimum play (C/XR). If
check-raising represents your last likely opportunity to grab fold equity, often you
should take it.
This is a similar example from a heads-up situation with a very low SPR. I have
called a small raise with QTs and seen a flop of 2h 2s 6s: (PS6, SPR 2.6)

I could donk-bet the flop profitably, but it achieves less fold equity than the check-
raise all-in. Actually his C-bet size is large and this vastly reduces my fold equity,
but I am not unduly concerned and I cannot control this. My check-raise puts him in
a difficult position, not quite able to call with any two cards, not sure whether to
call with king high and possibly even willing to fold ace high.
The key point is that winning chips through non-showdown is far more desirable
than entering a coin flip scenario.
In low SPR spots you should take whatever action is offering up the most fold
equity. When you are out of position this will often be the check-raise.
Another advantage of checking first rather than leading at flops is that it can make
escaping from hands easier when two or more opponents make committed bets or
show so much aggression that you have to put them on big hands.
Here, I have called a min-raise early in an SNG holding 9T hearts. The small blind
had called before me improving my pot odds. The flop was Qh 3h Td: (PS6 and
PS5 and SPR6)

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This is a good flop for me with a likely 14 outs plus a backdoor straight draw.
Starting with a check in a multi-way pot is a quirk of early stage SNG play. Donk-
betting will generally produce more profit, but will build bigger pots, so it is
suitable for cash games and MTTs. In this hand if I had started with a bet, it would
be quite difficult to justify folding in the hand given my level of likely equity (this is
close to a coinflip against AA). Starting with a check allows me to assess my
opponents’ bets before investing anything else.
In this situation, the large C-bet indicates some strength and the huge check-raise
ought to be a big hand or a big draw. If I assess my showdown equity now, it does
not look so great as a large chunk of the check-raiser’s range are hands against
which I have less than 14 outs. My non-showdown equity has disappeared. So
although this looks like, and is, a good drawing hand, the situation is no longer
desirable and I make a disciplined fold.
For similar reasons I do likewise in this hand. It is a limped pot and I hold J7
diamonds in the small blind. 4-handed we see a flop of 6d 8d 7c: (PS6, PS6, PS6
and SPR 10)

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Once again this is a good flop for me with a potential 14 outs. The implied odds are
good because of the straight draws. This time, I opt to start with a lead-out bet,
partly because this is a limped pot. I could also start with a check here, given that it
is still the early stages of an SNG. My investment, though, is very small, it gives me
fold equity and it protects my hand (which may well be the best right now).
When faced by two raisers, one who is prepared to shove all-in, I have to choose
whether to take on this gamble. To call with +EV I need to be able to win 44% of
the time (1232 chips to win 1598). Most of the time I will have the right odds to
call, but sometimes I will be against a set, a bigger flush draw or even a made
straight. My equity is slightly stronger than in the previous example because I have
an overcard to the board, which can make a higher two pair. Overall, it is fairly
similar though. My chance to win through non-showdown has gone and I am faced
by accepting or declining a marginal gamble. Early in SNGs you have to decline
marginal gambles. That is why this hand should be folded. I include two examples
of this deliberately to stress this point.
Summary:
Over 14 outs gives you positive showdown equity; often good enough to
gamble
Be prepared to fold against extremely aggressive opponents in high SPR
spots
A paired board should make you far less willing to pursue a draw and
more cautious
Having position, especially on the preflop raiser, is important
Consider the balance between your showdown equity and your non-

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 showdown (fold) equity
Consider your implied odds (what might happen if you make your draw?)
Gambling all-in at the flop stage can be acceptable with a strong draw
In SNGs you must decline marginal gambles, especially in the early
levels

Chapter 24: 8 to 13 outs (average draws)

The lower the quality of the draw, the less likely you should be to pursue it. To
draw negatively, you really want cheap pot odds and good implied odds
otherwise folding may be your best option. Drawing aggressively starts to get
riskier, the weaker the quality of your draw. On the flip side, winning chips through
non-showdown starts to become far more desirable than seeing a showdown with
poor odds.
Overall, you should be prepared to fold a lot more draws, but when you do choose
to draw, you should be more willing to make aggressive plays which promote fold
equity and less likely to just check and call. These draws play better in cash games
or deep-stacked MTTs than in SNGs.
The SPR table is once again a very general guideline, but shows a significant shift,
which should discourage you from drawing too often with an average number of
outs (8-13).
SPR (Stack to Pot Relative Risk Average Draw
Ratio) Committed?
0-3 Very low 95%
4-6 Low 65%
7-10 Medium 20%
11-14 High No
15+ Very high No

This is a heads-up situation in PS1 at 23BB. I have raised in position with Q5

spades, picked up a flush draw, C-bet, been minimum check-raised and am now
facing a turn bet with roughly the right pot odds to call: 4s Ks 2d 5c

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Playing heads-up there is no ICM restricting my play. Although my opponent has
check-raised and bet again, both his bet sizes are small, indicating possible
weakness or the complete opposite. If I raise in this spot instead of calling, I give
myself two ways to win the hand. The crucial questions are: how often do I need
to make him fold and how often can I realistically make him fold? I figured he
would still fold most of the time, so I raised all-in. As desired, he did fold.
Now let us examine this choice mathematically making a few assumptions. Firstly,
let us assume my showdown equity is going to be 25% on average. Secondly, I will
work off a modest fold equity of 50%. Now take a look at the possible outcomes of
calling or raising in this spot (assuming the raise is all-in).
Action Result Chips Won or Lost Average chip
gain
Call Turn Miss draw (75%) -800 -600
Call Turn Hit opp fold river 3,250 488
(15%)
Call Turn Hit opp call river 5,725 573
(10%)
Call Turn (all) All results N/A 461

Action Result Chips Won or Lost Average chip

gain
Raise Turn Opp folds (50%) 3,250 1,625
Raise Turn Opp calls / I lose -5,725 -2,147

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 (38%)
Raise Turn Opp calls / I win 5,725 715
(12%)
Raise Turn (all) All results N/A 193

As you can see, although both options are profitable, calling is still a stronger
option even with 50% fold equity. These tables are very useful for those of you
wanting to understand how the mathematics of these situations should be broken
down.
If I take it one step further, this is a look at how raising becomes more profitable,
the more fold equity you have. Although I have made certain assumptions and based
the figures on this one specific example hand, I have done so to illustrate a truth that
is generic to these situations: when your fold equity gets up to around 50% to
70% raising starts to become preferable to calling.
% Fold Equity Average Chip Gain
0% -2,862
50% 193
60% 805
70% 1474
80% 2,028
100% 3,250

Estimating your fold equity is a vital step. Use the information from the preflop and
postflop betting, look at your opponent’s WTSD% in conjunction with his core
statistics and consider his overall situation. How likely is he to fold? It is a
question that some players often fail to ask and it is pivotal in deciding whether to
call or raise in drawing situations.
In this hand I hold 75 hearts on the cutoff and have limped in with 5 others to see a
flop of 4h 9h 2d (PS5, PS6 and SPR14). The small blind has then led out with a bet
of 60% of the pot, which I called and the button called. Calling is usually
preferable to raising in multi-way pots when you are drawing to a big hand. The
turn card was 3h completing my low flush:

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At this point, the small blind led out again with a 40% pot bet and I have to choose
between calling and raising. Calling has the advantages of inviting the button to stay
involved, disguising my strength and protecting myself from going broke against a
bigger flush. More importantly though, I need to build up the size of the pot and
protect my hand against the far more common flush draw or the occasional set or
two pair, both of which could improve to a full house. I raised a modest amount, the
button folded and the small blind called (C/C/R). The river was 7d.
If the river is a heart, there is little sense betting out. The fact that it is a blank
means there will be value on the river. The small blind checked, showing weakness
and I had to choose a value bet size. This is a pot in which a loose, passive player
has led out with a strong bet on the flop, a more timid bet at the turn and has since
shown weakness. He likely holds top pair or a missed draw. If he has a missed
draw, he will be check-folding regardless of my bet, so I should work on the
assumption he has at least top pair. How much should I bet?
Bet size (percentage of Estimated Call Estimated Average
pot) Percentage Chips Won
ALL IN 1,420 (364%) 6% 85
780 chips (200%) 7% 55
390 chips (100%) 35% 137
292 chips (75%) 40% 117
195 chips (50%) 45% 98
100 chips (26%) 50% 50

For this calculation I am going to discount the possibility of being behind to keep

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the numbers simpler. When you analyse optimum bet sizes, this is a very useful way
of doing so. Pick a few possible bet sizes and work out how often you expect to get
called (this can be a rough estimate as mine are here). Then work out how many
chips you will win on average and see which bet size is offering you the best value.
If you practice this for a few different types of value bets, you will start to
recognise trends and the process will become less laborious in time. This type of
exercise can be performed whilst playing in a more streamlined manner. If you are
asking those postflop questions, they will guide you along the right path.
In the example above, I went for the optimum river value bet of 390 chips, which
the villain called and showed Q9o.
One of the problems of drawing in SNGs is that your freedom to pursue draws is
restricted by your need to survive. For large parts of SNGs you are governed by
ICM laws which force you to decline gambling spots even when they have
marginally positive expectation.
Here, I am sat on the big blind with A4s during the middle phase of a 6-max SNG.
The TAG small blind raises into me preflop and I call to see a flop of Js 6d 8s:

The raiser then checked the flop putting me in PS5 and an SPR of 6. In PS5 I bet
and everything is looking good. Then comes the check-raise all-in, from a solid
player. At this point I would have to call 2,083 chips to win 3,157. In other words
to call with positive expectation I only need a 40% chance of winning, which I
would have with 12 outs. Despite my positive EV, I have to fold because of the
SNG dynamics.

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Chasing down draws to showdown is a common mistake players make. In SNGs
once a villain is all-in, you need really good odds to justify calling the all-in, not
just marginally good odds. This is also true for hyper-turbos, but to a lesser extent.
In cash games, villains will not be shoving all-in with marginal holdings very often,
so the 12 likely outs could be fewer, for example if my opponent has a set or top
two pair, then I am down to around 8 outs. To call this in a cash game you would
need to believe that a large part of the villain’s range was drawing hands. It comes
down to how much equity you believe you have against his range. Is it more or less
than 40%?
In this hand the button has limped preflop, the small blind has completed and I have
checked on the big blind holding 82 clubs on level 1 of an SNG. The flop is Tc 4d
6c: (PS4 and PS6 and SPR25)

I have flopped a low flush draw with a likely 9 outs (ignoring backdoor straight
outs). Early in an SNG you should not be playing this type of draw aggressively.
Either see cheap cards or fold.
In very high SPR situations you need to be careful of committing too much with an
average draw, yet you should also keep your eyes on the potentially huge reward
for small risk. Here, I am wary of the small blind’s large bet size, but relative to the
very high SPR, I can still afford to call in position in the hope of making a flush.
Often a bet of this size will be worth folding to, but stay focused on the effective
stack size and the effective pot size. If the SPR is still a high number, drawing
remains a good option.
I called this bet, the button folded and the turn was Jd:

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If the small blind bets again at this board, I would have only a 19% chance of
winning at showdown, so a half pot-sized bet takes my odds away from calling.
However, in position against a loose opponent, I can count on winning some
additional chips on the river if I make my draw. This makes the decision more
complex. Try and understand your raw pot odds and then add a bit more (not too
much) for your implied odds. My raw pot odds are only 19% and to justify calling
a half pot-sized bet, I would need to be able to win 33% of the time. The gap here
is quite wide, so calling in that common situation is not really very wise.
An alternative play in that spot is to raise instead. An overcard has hit the turn and
a high card on the turn is usually worth attacking. Raising the turn C-bet gives you
fold equity to go with your showdown equity and can be an excellent play. I would
not try this against this opponent though as he is loose/passive and bluffing or
semi-bluffing into a calling station is always a bad plan. Reserve this move for
opponents who are capable of folding good hands.
In fact, my opponent checked. In response, normally I would want to bet out and
give myself two ways of winning the hand, but taking the free card is smarter
against a loose player who is unlikely to fold. The large C-bet he made is a good
indication that he holds something and will be reluctant to let his hand go.
I checked (X/C/X), the river was Ac and I won the remaining chips against A6o.
This was the dream river card of course, but any club on the end is likely to yield
some additional chips on the river.
In the early stages of SNGs playing draws very defensively against
loose opponents is the right strategy, otherwise you could end up
risking your tournament life. Your tournament situation and the impact

292
of ICM is a controlling factor. When ICM is intense, it dictates your
plays; when it is moderate, it interferes with your +EV decisions; when it is mild,
you can largely ignore it. In cash games or heads-up situations, it requires no
thought as it does not exist.
It is not my intention to discuss preflop hand strategy, but remember that genuine
suited connectors are powerful hands in deep-stacked play if you choose the right
conditions to play them.
In multi-way, deep-stacked pots get in cheap from late position, otherwise you
should be raising or folding them preflop. Avoid calling expensive raises with
them. Here is an example of good conditions for playing a suited connector in a
multi-way pot early in an SNG. I limped for 20 chips with 78 spades from the
cutoff to see a flop of 6d 5c Ad: (PS4 and SPR 16)

I flop an up and down straight draw with 8 outs, 2 of them tainted by the flush draw.
After the big blind checked, the initial limper led out with a half pot-sized bet, the
hijack called and I had to decide whether to call with my up and down straight
draw. Before you snap call with these types of draws, think carefully about the
likely outcomes of the hand. Try to assess whether you have good value.
Here, I am thinking about winning a massive pot or losing a small one. I like the
fact the SPR is high as that means the reward is correspondingly high. I like the fact
there are 3 opponents as the implied odds grow with the number of opponents. I
also like that I have position in an unraised pot. When you look at the ace, you
might see this as a bad thing as there will likely be a player holding top pair, but
actually this is ideal as it increases the implied odds considerably.

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I am restricted to drawing defensively though as I will have little fold equity raising
through 3 players on an ace high board. If I make a straight at the same time as an
opponent makes two pair or a set, that is when I will win a huge pot. A4, A5, A6
and A9 are all within each of my opponents’ ranges.
The one downside to this draw is the two diamonds on the board. Even if I make a
straight, I could end up losing to a flush. Normally this is a good reason not to
draw at all. In one sense I am drawing to 6 outs, rather than all 8 cards.
As all the other conditions were good, I decided to call anyway and invest 50 chips
in the hope of winning a huge pot. The turn was 9c:

Although I strike gold here, most of the time I will miss the turn card and be faced
with a tricky choice as to whether to call again. On the turn the investment would be
larger and more detrimental to my tournament. When that happens, try and do a
risk/reward assessment by understanding your raw pot odds and taking into account
implied odds.
In multi-way pots during the early stages of SNGs you really are restricted to
drawing negatively, as you will rarely have enough fold equity to play aggressively.
This is a massive restriction for playing suited connectors in low-stakes SNGs and
a good reason to be extra cautious with your hand selection. In higher-stakes games
your raises will command more respect and make semi-bluffs more profitable.
Having said all that, I was able to win 4,530 chips from an initial investment of 10
chips in this hand as both the remaining opponents made two pair (A9 and AK).
On the turn, it is necessary to raise to protect my hand against flush draws and
opponents drawing to full houses. Try to imagine your opponents’ likely hands and

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raise to an amount that they are likely to call, whilst clearly taking away pot odds
for their potential draws.
Often it is possible to follow a similar betting line with a drawing hand even when
you miss your draw on the turn (and even river). Semi-bluffing the turn and bluffing
the river is a high risk strategy which works well against tight opponents who you
are capable of folding fairly strong hands.
Summary:
Do not draw negatively unless it is very cheap and your implied odds are
good
Folding with 8-13 outs is fine when conditions are poor for drawing
Play aggressively against a single opponent regardless of your position
Estimate your fold equity when betting or raising.
Fold equity needs to be high on the turn (usually 60%+) to semi-bluff
Bluffing or semi-bluffing into a calling station is a bad idea
In SNGs you must decline marginal gambles, especially in the early
levels
Avoid drawing to non-nut hands, especially in high SPR spots
Chapter 25: 1 to 7 outs (weak draws)
Weak draws are similar, but often weaker than playing two overcard flops. They
should be folded far more often than other types of draws for obvious reasons.
When you do choose to play a weak draw though, they ought to be played in a
similar fashion to medium draws. The focus of your play for both types of draw
is fold equity, so the same betting lines are going to work.
There are two main differences. First, weak draws will improve on the turn less
often and cause you betting problems more often. Second, weak draws will
improve on the river less often and ultimately offer you poor showdown equity.
I separate these facts deliberately in order to point out how these two factors
compound. The first problem (missing your draw on the turn) happens more often
with weak draws, so you are exposed to the second problem more frequently. That
second problem (missing your draw on the river) also happens a higher percentage
of the time and thus your difficulties compound.
The same logic applies to playing any weak hands in card games with multiple
betting streets. To justify pursuing a weak draw, all the other factors need to
stack up in your favour.
SPR (Stack to Pot Relative Risk Weak Draw
Ratio) Committed?

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 0-3 Very low 50%
4-6 Low 15%
7-10 Medium No
11-14 High No
15+ Very high No

SPR is certainly one of those factors. The table is a very rough guide only as mainly
it is your perceived fold equity which will dictate your level of commitment to
these hands. In very low SPR situations you will have very low fold equity, but you
will often be committed due to having the right pot odds.
When the pot odds are low or medium it is difficult to justify playing the hands at
all unless you have really good fold equity (aggressive draw) or are gifted cheap
cards (defensive draw).
Ideally in No Limit Hold’em you want to make decisions early (usually at the flop
stage) on whether to play a hand aggressively or defensively. You do not want to
get caught in two minds. When you play a weak drawing hand aggressively and an
opponent calls to see a turn card, it can be extremely tempting to give up on your
aggression, but these are exactly the type of draws which require a commitment to
aggression as they rely on fold equity to make a profit.
If you make a choice to attack the flop, generally you want to attack the turn
card too. If you hold a pair with your draw or believe you may be ahead, then your
showdown equity is better and slowing down for pot control on the turn might make
sense. However, if you are going to win less than 15% of the time at showdown,
make sure you give yourself some fold equity by making an aggressive bet.
The higher SPR situations lend themselves well to attempting the aggressive
options. It is easier to make two aggressive plays at a pot without getting
committed. Once again, this favours cash game players who are going to enjoy
playing weak draws far more than tournament players.
In PS1, you must C-bet. If you are called, double-barrel whenever the turn card
brings you something you can realistically represent. You will not be in PS1 to 3
very often as you will tend to be raising with high cards, not low cards.
In PS2, you want to avoid calling the donk-bet. Your hand is not strong enough to
simply call a bet. Calling costs you money and takes you closer to a showdown that
favours your opponent. If your opponent is loose and you want to test out the
strength of the donk-bet, choose raise. My advice in most cases is to fold.
Here is an example from a 6-max SNG bubble. Although I raise preflop into the big
stack on the big blind, we are so deep-stacked I do not feel too constrained by ICM

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forces. I hold 78o and the big blind calls my bet. The flop is 9s 3s 5d: (PS2 and
SPR11)

With such a high SPR, I feel free to play this hand more as a cash game player
would. My stack size is big enough to threaten my opponent. The weak donk-bet of
less than a third of the pot needs raising. Remember fold equity is the focus with
weak draws. If I call the bet, I am far less likely to be able to make him fold later in
the hand.
This time my opponent called the raise and the turn card was Jh:

He checked and I have every reason to bet again: the turn card is an overcard; it has
brought me additional outs; I am the aggressor representing a big hand; my opponent

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has shown weakness preflop; he has made a weak-donk-bet; and he has only
checked the turn.
Given these conditions, another bet now will have a high success rate, so it is
worth betting for the fold-equity alone. If he calls, I still have around a 1 in 4
chance of making a straight on the river with my double inside draw. He did fold to
my bet.
In PS3 you should C-bet most flops and all wet flops. Check-raising with very few
outs is risky and should be reserved for times when you feel the check-raise will
have a very high success rate (dry boards and a single opponent). It is sometimes
possible to check-raise at a profit purely as a bluff, but you should always aim to
have around 6 or more outs to boost your overall equity. For weak draws, generally
stick to the safer C-bet.
In PS4 you have arrived in a weak postflop situation, despite your position. If you
believe your opponent is playing a wide range or has likely missed the flop, you
can try to call or even raise, but the default play is going to be to fold.
Sometimes in an SNG or even an MTT, if you have “control” of the tournament or
table, you can frequently attack boards to force opponents into tough decisions. If
you can put someone to a decision for their tournament life by raising one of these
flops, it could be very profitable. You do not have to raise either. If the SPR is high
enough you can float the flop and see how your opponent reacts on the turn.
Whenever they check the turn, you can simply bet and take over. This is especially
good in cash games when opponents lay down mediocre holdings more often. Float
flops if you understand your opponent’s betting style. It works best against good
opponents C-betting a high percentage of flops when the board is unlikely to have
hit their range.
The size of your opponent’s C-bet will influence you. One of the reasons I
recommend a C-bet of 70% of the pot or more in PS3 is to avoid the opponent (in
PS4) calling along cheaply. If the C-bet is pricing you in to have a look at the turn
(and depending on whether your opponent bets on the turn), then I am not against
calling from time to time with a weak draw. If the price is expensive (70%+)
though, avoid a poor investment. One of the overriding factors is your perception of
your opponent’s hand strength. This involves putting him on a range and
assessing how likely he is to have connected with the flop.
You should already know what to expect in PS5. An opponent’s weak check
coupled with your being in position means that any bet in PS5 will generate a huge
amount of fold equity. Your hand strength and the texture of the board are largely
irrelevant.The same is true of a C-bet in PS1. In this scenario you really do desire
that fold equity, so keep your bet size larger than average.

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In PS6 you should avoid throwing money into the pot. The occasional strategic
donk-bet or check-raise may be profitable, but check-folding ought to be routine.
You will still win some huge pots through showdown when everyone checks the
flop or you have great pot odds to call with just a few outs and you hit a great turn
card.
Summary:
Most weak draws should be declined - check or fold mostly
In PS1 and PS3 C-betting is the default play
In PS2 tend to fold and occasionally raise - avoid calling
PS4 can be difficult - folding is often smart with weak draws
When you play a weak draw aggressively, focus on achieving high fold
equity

Part 8: Postflop FAQs

Question 1: When should I double-barrel the turn?
Definition: A double-barrel is a second postflop bet fired at the turn card after
an opponent has called a continuation-bet.
Before you double-barrel, you ought to have isolated to one opponent and you
ought to have an idea about his likely range. That range will depend on his
position, his situation, the effective stack size and his perception of your playing
style and range. If you use a HUD, his VPIP and other preflop statistics will help
you in determining what range of cards he is playing. His behaviour on the flop can
also be tracked using “Fold to C-bet percentage”.
Some players float a lot of flops, especially in position, so double-barrelling into
them is a good idea. If your opponent is loose or a calling station, double-barrelling
is usually a mistake. You really need to ensure your opponent is capable of folding
a marginal hand before risking this bet. This is an important point for players on
micro or low stakes tables where bluffs of all descriptions have lower success
rates.
Next you need to think about the texture of the board and the reasons why your
opponent may have called your C-bet on the flop. Often, he will hold top pair,
middle pair, bottom pair or a drawing hand. Sometimes his range is so narrow that
a double-barrel will prove futile. Dry boards are good to double-barrel; wet
boards are more dangerous.
You also want to check the SPR, consider your likely showdown equity in the
hand and decide upon how committed you are. In very low SPR spots, you might

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need to double-barrel based on your own showdown equity alone. If you have very
little or no showdown equity, double-barrelling as an outright bluff is often a
mistake. Obviously if you hit the turn card and your showdown equity is strong,
double-barrelling is a no-brainer.
Most of the time though, your double-barrel is all about fold equity, not showdown
equity. Try and estimate your fold equity and ensure it is a reasonable amount. If
you bet half the pot, you should be able to make your opponent fold at least 1 in 3
times for the bluffing value of the bet to show a profit.
Position is also a huge factor. If you are out of position you should be far more
likely to double-barrel as you have no other good betting options. In position, both
betting and checking are perfectly attractive options.
Finally, consider the turn card itself. If the turn card has hit neither of your ranges,
your double-barrel is far less likely to work. Ideally, you want a card that hits your
perceived range and weakens your opponent’s likely holding. That will often be an
overcard to the board, an ace being the best example. If the turn card is not an
overcard, ask yourself whether it will scare your opponent. High cards are good;
low cards are bad; a card which pairs the board is very bad.
When you decide to double-barrel as a bluff, aim for at least 66% of the pot as a
bet size. This will secure more folds than smaller bets, which are often a false
economy.
Question 2: When is a “surprise bet” on the turn appropriate?
Definition: Similar to a donk-bet, but a bet out of position on the turn, having
defended the hand on the flop (usually by check-calling the flop with a betting
line of C/XC/B)
To make this type of bet, you first of all need to believe you have the best hand.
Often your hand will have improved on the turn or you were slow-playing a big
hand.
The second condition for making this type of bet is that you believe there is a strong
chance your opponent would check behind if you were to check first. Otherwise a
check-raise is often going to be a better option. To this extent it is very similar to
making a donk-bet. The main difference is that I would never make this bet with
anything other than a strong hand, whereas a donk-bet could be used in a wider
variety of ways.
If the board gets much wetter on the turn and there is a need either to defend your
hand against a drawing hand and/or to extract value from a drawing hand, this
would be an appropriate time to make a “surprise bet” on the turn.

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Question 3: When should I value bet on the river and how much?
Definition: A value bet is any bet made with the intention of making an opponent
call with a worse hand, thus extracting value. For maximum value, there will be
an optimum bet size i.e. a bet size which wins the most average profit.
The first part of the question is almost answered in the definition. There are only
ever two reasons for betting on the river. Either you are trying to make worse hands
call (value betting) or better hands fold (bluffing). To value bet you must believe
firstly that you are likely to be ahead, secondly that worse hands are going to call
and thirdly that no other action eg check-calling will yield more profit.
The second part of the question is complex and requires a mathematical calculation
(as outlined in the relevant example in chapter 9).
If you are in position, then your opponent will already have checked, showing
probable weakness. You should be far more likely to value bet in position. If you
are in doubt about whether your hand is the best, it is often tempting to check
behind, but you may be missing out on potential profit. Most players are guilty of
this from time to time. Often if you would have called a bet, you should be value-
betting.
In cash games, this is purely a mathematical calculation. In tournaments, if the river
bet jeopardises your tournament life, you may be less inclined to make the bet and
if it jeopardises your opponent’s life, you may be more inclined to make the bet
(providing your opponent is competent).
In any form of No Limit Hold’em, the essential calculation is the same: you need to
be beating his calling range at least 50% of the time.
I like to imagine playing the river 100 times with a check, 100 times with a small
bet, 100 times with a pot-sized bet and 100 times with an all-in. This may be too
much to do at the table, but if you practice with generic examples away from the
table, you will start to feel when value-bets are appropriate.
If you are sat out of position on the river, there is more to consider as checking still
has the potential to yield more profit than betting. Calculating this mathematically
relies on estimating how often and how much your opponent will bet behind you.
Whilst this is not impossible, it is too unreliable to concern yourself with. You
should focus on your opponent’s profile, his range, the betting history of the hand,
his postflop aggression (factor or percentage) and your own table image (if you are
perceived as a tight player, you will get fewer calls).
Against a loose, aggressive player who is likely to bluff the river, bluff-catching
(check-calling) may be more profitable than value betting. Against a more passive
player, value betting is going to make more sense. Not only will you extract more

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value from a passive opponent, but you will also get check-raised less often. If you
are in doubt, choose to value bet.
Remember that you do not need to be certain you are ahead to justify value
betting. It is easy to value bet when you are certain, but less easy when you are
unsure. You must assess your equity against the perceived calling range of your
opponent. If you have positive equity (greater than 50%), then there is value in
making the bet.
Value betting can also take place in the form of a raise rather than a bet. You want
to be fairly sure that you hold the best hand, but the essential concept and
calculation is identical. You should also be prepared to value bet in multi-way
pots. The mathematics is more complicated, but the two sides of the equation can
still balance in favour of a value bet. The risk will increase, but the chance of
getting called increases too.
Question 4: When should I bluff on the river?
Definition: A bluff on the river is a bet designed to make an opponent fold a
stronger hand.
There are many different types of situations when bluffing on the river is profitable,
so answering this question specifically is difficult. Bluffing on the river is not
something you should be doing very often. If you are new to the game I advise
against attempting river bluffs as they have a low success rate on low stakes tables
and require an advanced grasp of the game. You would be far better advised to
focus on maximising profit from value betting.
I also recommend avoiding multi-way pots. You want to aim bluffs at a single
opponent to reduce the risks.
As a general rule when planning a bluff on the river, you want to be in position.
This allows you to pounce on checks from your opponent that you perceive to be
weak. You can try bluffs out of position, but it is more hazardous. If you do it, all of
the other factors need to be strongly in your favour.
Avoid calling-stations and loose players. Many advanced plays against poor
players are wasted and bluffing is probably the best example of this. You could
make a really good bluff, but if it is against the wrong opponent, it will not work.
Aim bluffs at good opponents, preferably tight players with low WTSD
percentages.
Although you missed the river, the river card ought to have connected with your
hand range in some way. It ought to scare your opponent and your betting ought to
be believable. Your betting throughout the hand ought to be consistent with a hand
that you are representing.

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A common example of a river bluff is after missing a draw. If your opponent has
shown weakness on the turn and river, bluffing at the river is often +EV. This may
or may not be a triple-barrel bluff, but you ought to have been the aggressor on the
turn card, otherwise your river bet will lack consistency and you will get called
more often.
Question 5: When should I “float” on the flop?
Definition: Floating can describe any flat-call on the flop or turn, but normally
it refers to when a player opts to defend on the flop with the intention of seizing
the initiative on the turn or river.
Floating has become increasingly popular in modern poker since continuation-
betting became so widespread. It is a counter-play to frequent C-betting. From the
hero’s perspective the betting line is usually (C/C/B), but it could be (C/C/R) or
even more elaborate patterns. The basic idea is that you take over the betting as
soon as your opponent shows weakness.
These are betting lines that are usually very profitable as you will often be holding
strong hands. Indeed, these betting lines follow the basic advice I have given for
how to play monster hands. Good opponents will recognise this and fold more
readily, making these betting patterns ideal for pulling off semi-bluffs and bluffs.
Your cards do not matter a great deal when floating. Ideally you should have some
outs, so drawing hands or overcards are ideal, but the majority of your profit will
come through fold equity later in the hand.
More important is the texture of the flop. It ought to have hit your range harder than
your opponent’s range and you should be confident your opponent will be afraid by
your “float”. This will normally mean avoiding boards with lots of high cards and
looking for flops with low cards, ideally dry, but slightly wet can also be good.
As is the case when executing any bluff you should try and ensure that you have
position, that you have isolated to one opponent and that your opponent is
capable of folding. Tight, aggressive players who C-bet frequently (80%+) are
good targets and loose players or calling stations are poor targets. This makes low
stakes tables poor practice zones for exercising successful floats. A bluff that
makes use of more than one street is an advanced play and you will often be in
danger of being two levels of thinking ahead of your opponent instead of just one.
High SPRs are obviously better than low SPRs for any type of bluff as your
opponent is far less likely to go to showdown when the SPR is high. This makes
floating slightly more commonplace in cash games than tournaments.
As with any bluff, sometimes it will fail and your opponent will not fold. Be
particularly on your guard for opponents who C-bet from PS3 and check-call the

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turn (R/B/XC/X?). These players should normally check-fold the turn, but may be
reluctant to fold a marginal hand. They will frequently look to get to showdown as
cheaply as possible and are poor targets for floating. It is very difficult to predict
whether they will check-fold or check-call a river bet and so if you get to this
position, you will have to re-evaluate whether a river bet is worthwhile. If you
think your opponent has a marginal hand, either check and give up or choose a river
bet size that commands high fold equity.
Floating out of position is a move I consistently argue against though some top
players will do it. You need to be a super-confident postflop player to pull off this
type of play. The betting line will usually be (C/XC/XR) or (C/XC/B). Those of
you paying close attention will have noted that I frequently advocate check-raising
the flop instead (C/XR) and shutting down hands earlier when out of position to try
and avoid the persistent disadvantage of betting first again on the turn and river.
Floating across flop and turn is also a play that you should avoid. The success rate
will be low and the risk/reward ratio will rarely stack up. If you call the flop and
your opponent double-barrels the turn, you should normally be folding or raising.
Question 6: Do I always C-bet 40% on a dry board and 70% on a
wet board?
Definition: A dry board is one such as Ac 9h 3s, Td 2c 2h or Jd 6s 3c – boards
with few draws and high cards. A wet board is one such as Td Jd Kd, Ac Jc 4s or
7s 9s Js – boards with possible made straights/flushes or many likely draws.
Not always. Bet sizing is influenced by texture of the flop more than by any
other factor. Some cash game analysts maintain it should be the only factor. I
disagree. Your tournament situation, the SPR, your position and the profile of your
opponent(s) matter too.
In cash games when the SPR is nearly always high, you should stick to this rule
most of the time, though you may want to increase your bet sizes when out of
position to try and increase your fold equity.
In tournaments when the SPR is lower, your postflop strategy will be influenced by
how committed you are to the flop. If you need to bet more on the flop in order to
get your chips all-in comfortably on the turn (eg when SPR is around 4), making a
larger C-bet might be desirable. Yet if you are not committed, a smaller C-bet will
cost you less and allow you to fold more easily later in the hand.
Against players with very low fold to C-bet percentages, you may decide not to C-
bet at all if you miss the flop. Similarly, if you hit a big flop against a player with a
very high fold to C-bet percentage, you may also decline the C-bet in order to
disguise your strength.

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When C-betting, you ought to be focused on the texture of the board, but still be
aware of the other postflop dimensions.

Question 7: How do you use HUD Data for postflop play?

Definition: A HUD (heads-up display) shows statistics for all the players at an
online poker table.
You should be using a HUD when playing online as this is by far the most effective
way of profiling your opponents accurately.
The most important statistics to have on any HUD are VPIP (voluntarily put money
into pot) and PFR (preflop raise). These two statistics allow us to form a basic
profile of an opponent even with a very small sample size of 100 hands. You ought
to know at a glance whether your opponent is a rock, an ABC player, a TAG player,
a LAG player or a fish. Colour-coding your HUD is efficient and recommended.
If I ever glance at a specific postflop statistic, it is always within the context of that
opponent’s range, which will largely be determined by his VPIP, PFR and Preflop
3Bet%. Do not underestimate the power of these three statistics. They should
dominate your thinking whenever you are analysing HUD data.
So the first part of the answer to this question is: you use the preflop HUD data first
and foremost.
Of course you are going to want to know a little about postflop data too. Here are
some commonly used postflop statistics:

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For most postflop statistics, you are going to need a sample size of around 1000
hands before you can really use them. Often you are simply not going to have
enough data. Avoid displaying statistics with tiny samples as they will sometimes
mislead you. Aggression is an exception and can be useful after 200 hands or so.
The aggression factor or aggression percentage measures how often a player
bets or raises as a ratio or a percentage of the times when they choose call. Low
aggression indicates a passive player, who may conceal strong hands and draw
negatively; high aggression indicates an aggressive player, who may bluff
frequently and draw aggressively. If you have very large samples, you can break
aggression down by street. Some players are very aggressive on the flop, but quite
passive on the turn and river.
The C-bet flop percentage is very useful for deciding whether to fight back by
raising or floating flops. Opponents with high C-bet percentages (>80%) should be
attacked frequently, whereas opponents with low C-bet percentages (<60%) are

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more likely to be strong when they bet.
The Fold to C-bet percentage tells you how often your opponent will fold to your
C-bet. It provides a direct answer to that golden question, “How much fold equity
do I have?” Opponents with very low fold to C-bet percentages (<30%) may not be
worth C-betting into if you have missed the flop, whereas a villain with a high fold
to C-bet percentage (>55%) can be exploited by C-betting all weak holdings.
WTSD% is a popular measure. In cash games it will be far lower than in
tournaments because of the higher SPRs. In hyper-turbos, it is outrageously high
because of the tiny SPRs. You should know what a normal WTSD% is for the game
type you play. When assessing an opponent, use this statistic in conjunction with
W$SD% and their preflop range in order to determine whether value-betting or
bluffing is likely to work.
There are a multitude of other statistics that I could discuss, but unless you are a
specialist player (eg a heads-up player) or you play with the same opponents every
day, you should keep your HUD data simple and uncluttered. Add statistics to your
HUD (or pop-up box) when you want to know something specific and build up your
knowledge gradually.
Summary:
We have completed our comprehensive journey across the postflop universe. By
now you will have a much clearer understanding of each of the postflop dimensions
and how they exert their influence on poker hands.
By breaking down hands by flop hand strength, postflop scenario and SPR I have
provided a method and framework for postflop decision-making. My advice has
been backed up by in-depth database analysis of millions of hands.
In the introduction I stated that the way you approach and arrive at poker
decisions is more important than the decisions themselves. Remember this
during moments when you are unsure how to proceed. Focus on the relevant
postflop dimensions and come to a logical, reasoned conclusion.
If you ever took a mathematics examination where your received marks for your
working out, even if you arrived at the wrong answer, then you should be able to
see the parallels here. Try not to obsess about the “right” and the “wrong” answer,
but hone your thought processes instead.
There are many ways you can help to achieve this, but let this be a final reminder
that the postflop questions from Volume 1 are a fantastic means of triggering smart
thought processes.
For those of you eager to accelerate your learning, you could also consider
employing a poker coach. If you enjoyed this book and want to enquire about my

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one on one coaching service you can find more information at
www.postfloppoker.com

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