1.

Fit a trend value for the following data using the method of Semi Averages

Sales (Thousand
Year Units
1991 20
1992 24
1993 22
1994 30
1995 28
1996 32

Average of years = (1991+1992+1993)/3 = 1992

Average of years = (1994+1995+1996)/3 = 1995

Average of sales = (20+24+22)/3 = 22

Average of sales = (30+28+32)/3 = 30

Sales (Thousand Average

Year Units Sales
1991 20
1992 24 22
1993 22
1994 30
1995 28 30
1996 32
2. Fit a trend value for the following data using the method of Semi Averages

Year Profits
2000 10
2001 15
2002 20
2003 22
2004 30
2005 40
2006 50

Year Profits Average

2000 10
2001 15 15
2002 20 Ignore
2003 22
2004 30
2005 40 40
2006 50
Average of years = (2000+2001+2002)/3 = 2001
Average of profit = (10+15+20)/3 = 15

Average of years = (2004+2005+2006)/3 = 2005

Average of profit = (30+40+50)/3 = 40

60

50

40
Profit

30
Actual Line
20 Trend Line

10

0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Year
 3. Fit a trend value for the following data using the method of Moving Averages (3) 3 week moving
avg or 3 yr moving avg

Wee Sales (1000s of

k gallons)
1 17
2 21
3 19
4 23
5 18
6 16
7 20
8 18
9 22
10 20
11 15
12 22

Wee Sales (1000s of Moving average (3

k gallons week)
1 17  
2 21 19
3 19 21
4 23 20
5 18 19
6 16 18
7 20 18
8 18 20
9 22 20
10 20 19
11 15 19
12 22  

Week 2 average =(17+21+19)/3 = 19

Week 3 average =(21+19+23)/3 = 21

Week 4 average =(19+23+18)/3 = 20

Week 5 average =(23+18+16)/3 = 19

Week 6 average =(18+16+20)/3 = 18

Week 7 average =(16+20+18)/3 = 18

Week 8 average =(20+18+22)/3 = 20

Week 9 average =(18+22+20)/3 = 20

Week 10 average =(22+20+15)/3 = 19

Week 11 average =(20+15+22)/3 = 19

25

20

15
Sales

Actual Line
10
Trend Line

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Weeks

4. Fit a trend value for the following data using the method of 5 year Moving Averages

Production in 1000
Year units
1977 14
1978 17
1979 22
1980 28
1981 26
1982 18
 1983 29
1984 24
1985 25
1986 29
1987 30
1988 23

Production in 1000 5 year Moving

Year units average
1977 14  
1978 17  
1979 22 21.4
1980 28 22.2
1981 26 24.6
1982 18 25
1983 29 24.4
1984 24 25
1985 25 27.4
1986 29 26.2
1987 30  
1988 23  

First 5 week average =(14+17+22+28+26)/5 = 21.4

Second 5 week average =(17+22+28+26+18)/5 = 22.2
Third 5 week average =(22+28+26+18+29)/5 = 24.6
Fourth 5 week average =(28+26+18+29+24)/5 = 25
Fifth 5 week average =(26+18+29+24+25)/5 = 24.4
Sixth 5 week average =(18+29+24+25+29)/5 = 25
Seventh 5 week average =(29+24+25+29+30)/5 = 27.4
Eighth 5 week average =(24+25+29+30+23)/5 = 26.2
 35

30

25

20
Production

15
Actual Line
10 Trend Line
5

0
7 7 97 8 979 980 98 1 98 2 983 984 985 98 6 98 7 988
19 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Year

5. Fit it a trend value for the following data using the method of 4 year Moving Averages

Years Sales in Million Rs

1991 36
   
1992 43
   
1993 43
   
1994 34
   
1995 44
   
1996 54
   
1997 34
   
1998 24
 4 Year Moving 4 Yearly moving average
Years Sales in Millions Average centered
1991 36    
       
1992 43    
    39  
1993 43   40
    41  
1994 34   42.375
    43.75  
1995 44   42.625
    41.5  
1996 54   40.25
    39  
1997 34    
       
1998 24    

First 4 year moving average= (36+43+43+34)/4 = 39

Second 4 year moving average = (43+43+34+44)/4 = 41
Third 4 year moving average = (43+34+44+54)/4 = 43.75
Fourth 4 year moving average = (34+44+54+34)/4 = 41.5
Fifth 4 year moving average = (44+54+34+24)/4 = 39

First 4 Yearly moving average centered =(39+41)/2 = 40

Second 4 Yearly moving average centered =(41+43.75)/2 = 42.375
Third 4 Yearly moving average centered =(43.75+41.5)/2 = 42.625
Fourth 4 Yearly moving average centered =(41.5+39)/2 = 40.25
 60

50

40

30
Sales

Actual Line
20 Trend Line

10

0
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
Year