Chapter 3
Probability
3.1
Basic Concepts of Probability
Probability Experiments
A probability experiment is an action through which specific results
(counts, measurements or responses) are obtained.
Example:
Rolling a die and observing the number that is rolled
is a probability experiment.
The result of a single trial in a probability experiment is the
outcome.
The set of all possible outcomes for an experiment is the sample
space.
Example:
The sample space when rolling a die has six outcomes.
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Sample Space and Events
An event consists of one or more outcomes and is a subset of the
sample space.
Events are represented by
Example: uppercase letters.
A die is rolled. Event A is rolling an even number.
A = {2, 4, 6} ⊂ S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Example: Event B is rolling an odd number.
B = {1, 3, 5} ⊂ S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Example: Event C is rolling A number that is divisible by 3
C = {3, 6} ⊂ S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Combining events by union, intersection, and
complement
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Union (U) A = {2, 4, 6}
Union → ( or ) → ( + ) C = {3, 6}
Example : A U C = {2, 4, 6, 3}, B = {1, 3, 5}
A U B = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Intersection (∩)
Intersection → ( and ) → ( * )
Example : A ∩ C = {6}
A ∩ B = {Φ}
Complement Events ( 𝑨 ), ( 𝑩 ), ( 𝑪 )
Complement Event (A) → ( 𝑨 ) = S - A
Example : ( 𝑨 ) = {1, 3, 5,}, ( 𝑩 ) = {2, 4, 6},
( 𝑪 ) = {1, 2, 4, 5}
S
S
De Morgan’s Law
1. 𝑨 ∩ 𝑩 = 𝑨 ∪ 𝑩
De Morgan’s Law cont.
2. 𝑨 ∪ 𝑩 = 𝑨 ∩ 𝑩
De Morgan’s Law cont.
(a). Region 2 =𝑨∩𝑩∩ 𝑪
(b). Region 1 and 3 =𝑩∩𝑪
(c). Region 3, 5, 6, and 8 together =𝑨
Counting
In our example we had n1 = 3, n2 = 2, and n3 = 3,
Tree Diagrams and hence, 3 ・ 2 ・ 3 = 18 possibilities.
A tree diagram is a picture of the possible outcomes of a
procedure, shown as line segments emanating from one starting
point. These diagrams are sometimes helpful in determining the
number of possible outcomes in a sample space, if the number of
possibilities is not too large.
As shown in this fig. where the three alternatives for current
mileage are denoted by M1, M2, and M3, where M1 is low
mileage. The price is either P1 or P2, where P1 is moderate; and
the three alternatives for operating costs are denoted by C1, C2,
and C3, where C1 is inexpensive. Following a given path from left
to right along the branches of the tree. It can be seen that all
together there are 18 possibilities. This result could also have been
obtained by observing that there are three M-branches, that each
M-branch forks into two P-branches, and that each P-branch forks
into three C-branches. Thus, there are 3 ・ 2 ・ 3 = 18
If a test consists of 12 true-false questions, in
how many different ways can a student mark the
test paper with one answer to each question?
Solution Since each question can be answered in two ways,
there are all together
2 ・ 2 ・ 2 ・ 2 ・ 2 ・ 2 ・ 2 ・ 2 ・ 2 ・ 2 ・ 2 ・ 2 = 212
= 4,096 possibilities
This figure summarizes
the possible outcomes
for a true/false question
followed by a multiple
choice question.
Note that there are 10
possible combinations.
Permutation and Combination
Permutation Rule
Combinations Rule (when items are all different)
(when items are all different)
Requirements:
Requirements: 1. There are n different items
1. There are n different items available. available. (This rule does not apply
if some of the items are identical to
2. We select r of the n items (without others.)
replacement).
2. We select r of the n items (without
3. We consider rearrangements of the same replacement).
items to be the same. (The combination of
ABC is the same as CBA.) 3. We consider rearrangements of the
same items to be different
Order is not considered sequences. (The permutation of
ABC is different from CBA and is
If the preceding requirements are satisfied, the number
of combinations of r items selected from n different counted separately.)
items is
Order is considered
2 1,2
1 1,2
3 1,3
1 2,1 1,3
3C2 2
3 2,3
1 3,1 2,3
3
2 3,2
𝟑 𝟑!
3C2 = 𝟐
=
𝟑−𝟐 !∗𝟐!
=𝟑
2 12
1
3 13
1 21
3P2 2
3 23
1 31
3
2 32
𝟑! 𝟑!
3P2 =
(𝟑−𝟐)!
=
𝟏!
= 𝟔
