XII Maths Activity No.
10 (Probability) Term-2
Objective of the Activity
To explain the computation of conditional probabilities of a given event A when event
B has already occurred through an example of throwing a pair of dice.
Pre-requisite Knowledge
❖ Knowledge about probability, knowledge about random experiment, sample space, event,
equally likely events etc., conditional probability.
Materials Required
✧ Card board sheet
✧ Squared sheet
✧ White chart
✧ Glue sticks etc.
Logical Steps of the Activity
1. Take a card board of suitable size and paste a white sheet on it and paste a squared paper
on it which has 36 square as shown in the figure.
2. Write all possible out comes obtained
by throwing two dice on the squared (1, 1) (1, 2) (1, 3) (1, 4) (1, 5) (1, 6)
paper i.e. and write all the following
outcomes on the squared paper as (2, 1) (2, 2) (2, 3) (2, 4) (2, 5) (2, 6)
shown in the figure.
(3, 1) (3, 2) (3, 3) (3, 4) (3, 5) (3, 6)
(1, 1), (1, 2), (1, 3), (1, 4), (1, 5), (1, 6), (2,
1), (2, 2), (2, 3), (2, 4), (2, 5), (2, 6), (3, 1), (4, 1) (4, 2) (4, 3) (4, 4) (4, 5) (4, 6)
(3, 2), (3, 3), (3, 4), (3, 5), (3, 6), (4, 1), (4,
2), (4, 3), (4, 4), (4, 5), (4, 6), (5, 1), (5, 2), (5, 1) (5, 2) (5, 3) (5, 4) (5, 5) (5, 6)
(5, 3), (5, 4), (5, 5), (5, 6), (6, 1), (6, 2), (6,
3), (6, 4), (6, 5), (6, 6) (6, 1) (6, 2) (6, 3) (6, 4) (6, 5) (6, 6)
1
Observation
Case I: To find the conditional probability of an event E when F has already occurred where E is
the event a number 3 appears on both the dice and F is the event 3 has already appeared on one
E
of the dice. Here we have to find the conditional probability P .
F
1. From the above figure
Favourable out comes of E is (3, 3)
E = {3, 3} i.e, n(E) = 1
Favourable outcomes of F are
F = {(1, 3) (2, 3) (3, 3) (4, 3) (5, 3) (6, 3) (3, 1) (3, 2) (3, 4) (3, 5) (3, 6)}
No. of favourable outcomes of F i.e., n(B) = 11
Now the common outcomes of E and F is {3, 3}
Now no. of favourable outcomes of ( E ∩ F ) = n(1)
E P (E ∩ F ) 1
Conditional probability P = =
F P( F ) 11
Alternate Method:
E P (E ∩ F )
P =
F P (F)
Total no. of outcomes in a single throw of two dice = 36
n(S) = 36 and n(F) = 11
n( F ) 11
P( F ) = =
n(S) 36
n(E ∩ F ) = 1
1
P(E ∩ F ) =
36
1
E P ( E ∩ F ) 36 1
So P = = =
F P( F ) 11 11
36
Case II: To find the conditional probability of an event E when F has already occurred, where
E be the event getting the sum 8 and F is the event a doublet has already occured. Here also we
E
have to find P .
F
2
2. From the figure
Favourable outcomes of E are (3, 5) (4, 4) (5, 3) ⇒ {( 3, 5) ( 4, 4)( 5, 3)}
No. of outcomes of (E) = n(E) = 3
Favourable outcomes of F are (1, 1) (2, 2) (3, 3) (4, 4) (5, 5) (6, 6)
F = {(1, 1) (2, 2) (3, 3) (4, 4) (5, 5) (6, 6)}
No. of outcomes in F i.e. n(F) = 6
Common outcomes of E and F is {4, 4}
No. of outcomes in ( E ∩ F ) i.e. n ( E ∩ F ) = 1
E P (E ∩ F ) 1
Hence P = =
F P (F) 6
Alternative Method
E P (E ∩ F )
We know that P =
F P (F)
n(S) = 36, n(E) = 3, n(F) = 6, n ( E ∩ F ) = 1
n( F ) 6 1
P (F) = = =
n(S) 36 6
n (E ∩ F ) 1
P (E ∩ F ) = =
n(S) 36
1
E P (E ∩ F ) 36 1
So P = = =
F P( F ) 1 6
6
Result
From the above activity we conclude that this activity explains how to calculate the conditional
probability of an event when another event has already occurred.
Application
This activity is helpful to clear the concept of Baye’s Theorem.
