The Multiplication Rules and Conditional Probability
The multiplication rules can be used to find the probability of two or more events that occur in
sequence. For example, if a coin is tossed and then a die is rolled, one can find the probability of
getting a head on the coin and a 4 on the die. These two events are said to be independent since
the outcome of the first event (tossing a coin) does not affect the probability outcome of the second
event (rolling a die).
Independent Events
Two events A and B are independent events if the fact that A occurs does not affect the
probability of B occurring.
1. When two events are independent, the probability of both occurring is
P( A and B) P( A) P( B)
Example
A coin is flipped and a die is rolled. Find the probability of getting a head on the coin and a 4 on
the die. Solution
P(head and 4) P(head ) P(4)
1 1
2 6
1
12
Note that the sample space for the coin is H, T; and for the die it is 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.
Example
1
A card is drawn from a deck and replaced; then a second card is drawn. Find the probability of
getting a queen and then an ace.
Solution
4
The probability of getting a queen is , and since the card is replaced, the probability of getting
52
4
an ace is . Hence, the probability of getting a queen and an ace is
52
P(queen and ace) P(queen) P(ace)
4 4
52 52
1
169
Example
An urn contains 3 red balls, 2 blue balls, and 5 white balls. A ball is selected and its color noted.
Then it is replaced. A second ball is selected and its color noted. Find the probability of each of
these:
a. Selecting 2 blue balls
b. Selecting 1 blue ball and then 1 white ball
c. Selecting 1 red ball and then 1 blue ball
Solution
a.) P(blue and blue) P(blue) P(blue)
2 2
10 10
1
25
2
b.) P(blue and white) P(blue) P( white)
2 5
10 10
1
10
c.) P(red and blue) P(red ) P(blue)
3 2
10 10
3
50
Example
A poll found that 46% of Americans say they suffer great stress at least once a week. If three
people are selected at random, find the probability that all three will say that they suffer great
stress at least once a week.
Solution
Let S denote stress. Then
P( S and S and S ) P( S ) P( S ) P( S )
0.46 0.46 0.46
0.097
Dependent Events
When the outcome or occurrence of the first event affects the outcome or occurrence of the second
event in such a way that the probability is changed, the events are said to be dependent events.
To find probabilities when events are dependent, use the multiplication rule with a modification in
notation. For example, in drawing a card from a deck of cards and not replacing it, and then
3
4
drawing a second card, the probability of getting an ace on the first draw is , and the probability
52
4
of getting a king on the second draw is . By the multiplication rule, the probability of both
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events occurring is
4 4 4
52 51 663
The event of getting a king on the second draw given that an ace was drawn the first time is called
a conditional probability. The conditional probability of an event B in relationship to an event A
is the prob ability that event B occurs after event A has already occurred. The notation for
conditional probability is P(B|A). This notation does not mean that B is divided by A; rather, it
means the probability that event B occurs given that event A has already occurred. In the card
example, P(B|A) is the probability that the second card is a king given that the first card is an ace,
4
and it is equal to since the first card was not replaced.
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When two events are dependent, the probability of both occurring is
P( A and B) P( A) P( B | A)
Example
An Insurance Company found that 53% of the residents of a city had homeowner’s insurance (H)
with the company. Of these clients, 27% also had automobile insurance (A) with the company. If
a resident is selected at random, find the probability that the resident has both homeowner’s and
automobile insurance with the Insurance Company.
Solution
4
P( A and H ) P( H ) P( A | H )
0.53 0.27
0.1431
Example
Three cards are drawn from an ordinary deck and not replaced. Find the probability of these events.
a.) Getting 3 jacks
b.) Getting an ace, a king, and a queen in order
c.) Getting a club, a spade, and a heart in order
d.) Getting 3 clubs
Solution
a.) P( Jack and Jack and Jack ) P(blue) P(blue)
4 3 2
52 51 50
1
5525
b.) P(ace and king and queen) P(ace) P(king ) P(queen)
4 4 4
52 51 50
8
16575
c.) P(c lub and spade and heart ) P(c lub) P ( spade) P (heart )
13 13 13
52 51 50
169
10200
5
d .) P(c lub and c lub and c lub) P(c lub) P (c lub) P (c lub)
13 12 11
52 51 50
11
850
Example
Box 1 contains 2 red balls and 1 blue ball. Box 2 contains 3 blue balls and 1 red ball. A coin is
tossed. If it falls heads up, box 1 is selected and a ball is drawn. If it falls tails up, box 2 is selected
and a ball is drawn. Find the probability of selecting a red ball.
Solution
1
Since a coin is being tossed for the box selection with head for box 1 and probability or tails
2
1
for box 2 with probability . Then the probabilities for choosing the balls are then found by using
2
the basic probability rule.
Next multiply the probability for each outcome, using the rule P( A and B) P( A) P( B | A) .
Thus, a red ball can be selected from either box 1 or box 2 such that
1 2 1 1
P(red )
2 3 2 4
3
8
Conditional Probability
The probability that the second event B occurs given that the first event A has occurred can be
found by dividing the probability that both events occurred by the probability that the first event
has occurred. The formula is
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P ( A and B )
P( B | A)
P( A)
Example
A box contains black chips and white chips. A person selects two chips without replacement. If
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the probability of selecting a black chip and a white chip is , and the probability of selecting a
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3
black chip on the first draw is , find the probability of selecting the white chip on the second
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draw, given that the first chip selected was a black chip.
Solution
Let B equal to selecting a black chip
W equal to selecting a white chip.
P ( A and B )
P( B | A)
P( A)
15
56
3
8
5
7
Example
The probability that Sam parks in a no-parking zone and gets a parking ticket is 0.06, and the
probability that Sam cannot find a legal parking space and has to park in the no parking zone is
0.20. On Tuesday, Sam arrives at school and has to park in a no-parking zone. Find the probability
that he will get a parking ticket.
Solution
7
N = parking in a no-parking zone
T = getting a ticket
P (T and N )
P (T | N )
P( N )
0.06
0.20
0.3
Example
A recent survey asked 100 people if they thought women in the armed forces should be permitted
to participate in combat. The results of the survey are shown.
Gender Yes No
Male 32 18
Female 8 42
Find these probabilities.
a.) The respondent answered yes, given that the respondent was a female.
b.) The respondent was a male, given that the respondent answered no.
Solution
M is respondent was a male
Y is respondent answered yes
F is respondent was a female
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N is respondent answered no
a.) The problem is to find P(Y | F )
8
P(Y and F )
100
50
P( F )
100
P(Y and F )
P(Y | F )
P( F )
8
100
50
100
4
25
b.) The problem is to find P( M | N )
18
P( M and N )
100
60
P( N )
100
P( M and N )
P( M | N )
P( N )
18
100
60
100
3
10
Probabilities for “At Least”
Example
A coin is tossed 5 times. Find the probability of getting at least 1 tail.
Solution
9
It is easier to find the probability of the complement of the event, which is “all heads,” and then
subtract the probability from 1 to get the probability of at least 1 tail.
1 1 1 1 1
P (all heads )
2 2 2 2 2
1
32
P (at least 1 tail ) 1 P (all heads )
P( E ) 1 P( E c )
1
1
32
31
32
Example
The Neckwear Stores reported that 3% of ties sold in Nigeria are bow ties. If 4 customers who
purchased a tie are randomly selected, find the probability that at least 1 purchased a bow tie.
Solution
Let E be at least 1 bow tie is purchased
E c be no bow ties are purchased. Then
P( E ) 0.03
P( E c ) 1 0.03 0.97
P( E c ) 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97
0.885
P ( E ) 1 0.885
0.115
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Probability and Counting Rules
The counting rules can be combined with the probability rules to solve many types of probability
problems. By using the basic counting rule, the permutation, and the combination rule, one can
compute the probability of outcomes of many experiments.
Example
Find the probability of getting 4 aces when 5 cards are drawn from an ordinary deck of cards.
Solution
52
There are C5 ways to draw 5 cards from a deck and there is 4 C4 (only 1) way to get 4 aces.
4
C4 48 C1
P (4 aces ) 52
C5
1
54145
EXAMPLE
If 3 balls are randomly drawn from a bag containing 6 white and 5 black balls, what is the
probability that one of the balls is white and the other two black?
SOLUTION
C1 5C2 4
6
P 1 White, 2 Black balls 11
C3 11
EXAMPLE
A committee of 5 is to be selected from a group of 6 men and 9 women. If the selection is made
randomly, what is the probability that the committee consists 3 men and 2 women?
11
SOLUTION
C3 9C2 240
6
P 3 men, 2 women 15
C5 1001
EXAMPLE
A bag contains n balls, one of which is special. If k of these balls are withdrawn one at a time,
with each selection being equally likely to be any of the balls that remain at the time, what is the
probability that the special ball gets chosen?
SOLUTION
C1 n 1Ck 1 k
1
P Special ball n
Ck n
EXAMPLE
Two students are chosen at random from a class of 18 boys and 12 girls. What is the probability
that the two students selected are 1 boy and 1 girl?
SOLUTION
18
C1 12C1 72
P 1boy,1 girl 30
C2 145
CLASS ACTIVITY
1. Two fair coins are tossed. Determine the probability that:
a.) Two heads occur
b.) At least one head occurs
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2. From a committee of 3 males and 4 females, a subcommittee of 4 is to be randomly
selected. Find the probability that it consists of 2 males and 2 females.
3. From a production run of 5000 phones, 2% of which are defective, 1 phone is selected at
random.
a.) What is the probability that the phone is defective?
b.) What is the probability that the phone is not defective?
4. A customer visiting a boutique will purchase a suit with probability 0.22, a shirt with
probability 0.3, and a tie with probability 0.28. The customer will purchase both a suit
and a shirt with probability 0.11, both a suit and a tie with probability 0.14, and both a
shirt and a tie with probability 0.10. A customer will purchase all 3 items with probability
0.06. What is the probability that the customer purchases:
a.) none of these items?
b.) exactly 1 of these items?
5. A boy has 2 red balls and 3 blue balls in a bag. He selects 2 balls at random from the bag.
Find the probability that both are blue.
6. A group preparing for class presentation consists of 5 girls and 3 boys. Two group
members are selected at random to present their work. What is the probability that 1 is a
girl and 1 a boy?
7. A student must choose 3 courses from a list of 7 courses. The list includes 4 engineering
and 3 economics courses. If the selection is made at random, what is the probability that 2
engineering and 1 economics course will be chosen?
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