A SURVEY OF

PROBABILITY CONCEPTS
PROBABILITY
A value between zero and one, inclusive, describing the relative
possibility (chance or likelihood) an event will occur.
EXPERIMENT OUTCOME
A process that leads to the A particular result of an experiment.
occurrence of one and only one of
several possible observations.
SAMPLE SPACE EVENT
All possible outcomes of an A collection of one or more
outcomes of an experiment
Experiment.
 APPROACHES TO ASSIGNING
PROBABILITIES
CLASSICAL PROBABILITY EMPERICAL PROBABILITY
is based on the assumption that the probability of an event
the outcomes of an experiment are happening is the fraction of the time
equally likely. similar events happened in the past.
EXAMPLE CLASSICAL
PROBABILITY
Consider an experiment of
rolling a six-sided die.
What is the probability of
the event “an even number
of spots appear face up”?
EXAMPLE EMPERICAL
PROBABILITY

Experiment:
rolling a die 200
times
 • Illustrations of subjective probability are:
• 1. Estimating the likelihood the New
SUBJECTIVE
England Patriots will play in the Super
PROBABILITY
Bowl next year.
The likelihood
(probability) of a particular • 2. Estimating the likelihood you will be
event happening that is married before the age of 30.
assigned by an individual • 3. Estimating the likelihood the U.S.
based on whatever budget deficit will be reduced by half in
information is available. the next 10 years.
 PRACTICE EXERCISES
In each of the following cases, indicate whether classical,
empirical, or subjective probability is used. Answers:
a. A baseball player gets a hit in 30 out of 100 times at
bat. The probability is 0.3 that he gets a hit in his next
• a. Empirical
year at bat.
b. A seven-member committee of students is formed to
• b. Classical
study environmental issues. What is the likelihood that
any one of the seven is chosen as the spoke person?
• c. Classical
c. You purchase one of 5 million tickets for Lotto • d. Subjective
Canada. What is the likelihood you will win the $1
million jackpot?
d. What is the probability that the Dow Jones Industrial
Average will exceed 12,000 during the next 12 months?
A sample of 2,000 licensed drivers revealed the
following number of speeding violations.
a. What is the experiment?
b. List one possible event
c. What is the probability that a
particular driver had exactly two
speeding violations?
d. What concept of probability does
this illustrate?
 Some Rules for Computing Probabilities
RULES OF ADDITION
Mutually Exclusive Events Special Rule of Addition
– Events A and B are mutually
exclusive if both cannot occur at the
same time, that is, if
their intersection is empty. Complement Rule
A machine fills plastic bags with a mixture of beans, broccoli, and other vegetables.
Most of the bags contain the correct weight, but because of the variation in the
size of the beans and other vegetables, a package might be underweight or
overweight. A check of 4,000 packages filled in the past month revealed:
• What is the probability that a particular
package will be either underweight or
overweight? Use Special rule and
Complement rule.
• Special Rule
P(A or C) P(A) = P(C) .025 + .075= .10
• Complement Rule
P(A or C) =1 - [P(B)]
= 1- [.900] = 0.10
In 2008, McDonald’s had 31,967 restaurants system wide. Of these,
21,328 were operated by franchisees, 6,502 by the company, and 4,137 by
affiliates. What is the probability that a randomly selected McDonald’s
restaurant is operated by either a franchisee or an affiliate?
• Let P(F)=an event selecting • P(F or A)= P(F) + P(A)
McDonald’s restaurant operated by = P(
21,328 4,137
) + P( 31,967 )
a franchisee 31,967

= 0.6672 + 0. 1294
• P(A)=an event selecting
=0.7966
McDonald’s restaurant operated by
an affiliate • P(F or A)= 1 – P( C )
• P(C)= an event selecting = 1–P(
6,502
31,967
)
McDonald’s restaurant operated by
= 0.7966
a company
 Some Rules for Computing Probabilities
• Not Mutually Exclusive Events • General Rule of Addition
Two or more events can happen P (A or B) = P (A) + P (B) − P (A and B)
at the same. JOINT PROBABILITY
• A probability that measures the
likelihood two or more events will
happen concurrently. The typical
expression is P(A and B).
EXAMPLE: What is the probability that a card chosen at
random from a standard deck of cards will be either a king or a
heart?
• P (A or B) = P (A) + P (B) − P (A and B)
=4/52 + 13/52 - 1/52
= 16/52 or 0.3077
 PRACTICE EXERCISES
1. There are 100 employees at Kiddie Carts • Answers: Let A = production worker ; B
International. Fifty-seven of the employees are = supervisors ; C = secretaries ; D =
production workers, 40 are supervisors, 2 are
secretaries, and the remaining employee is the
president
president. Suppose an employee is selected: • a. P(A) = 57/100 = 0.57
a. What is the probability the selected employee is
a production worker?
• b. P(A or B) = P(57/100)+P(40/100) =
0.57+0.40 = 0.97
b. What is the probability the selected employee is
either a production worker or supervisor? • c. P(A or B)’ = 1-0.97 = 0.03
c. What is the probability the selected employee is
neither a production worker nor a supervisor?
 PRACTICE EXERCISES
Consider a pack of 52 playing • Answers
cards. A card is selected at 26 = red cards ; 26 = black cards ; 13 = cards of
diamond ; 13 = cards of spade ; 13 = cards of
random. Find these probabilities.
heart ; 13 = cards of club/clover
a. An ace • a. P(A) = 4/52 = 0.0769
b. A four of spade • b. P(Z) = 1/52 = 0.0192
c. A diamond or a ten • c. P(D or T) = P(13/52) + P(4/52) – P(1/52)=
0.3077
d. Not a black card nor a
diamond card • d. P(B or D)’ = 1 – P(26/52) + P(13/52) = 0.25
 Some Rules for Computing Probabilities
RULES OF MULTIPLICATION
• Independent Event • Dependent Event
-the occurrence of one event does -the occurrence of one event does
not change the probability that another change the probability that another
event will occur. event will occur
General Rule of Multiplication
• Special Rule of Multiplication P (A and B) = P (A) ∙ P (B/ A)
P (A and B) = P (A) ∙ P (B)
Conditional Probability
The probability of a particular event
occurring, given that another event has
occurred.
 • Answer
EXAMPLE of Special Rule
• P(A) = probability of first member who
of Multiplication
made an airline reservation
A survey by the American Automobile
Association, revealed 60 percent of • P(B) = probability of second member
its members made airline reservations who made an airline reservation
last year. Two members are selected at • P(A and B) = (0.60)(.60) = 0.36
random. What is the probability both
• The probability both made airline
made airline reservations last year?
reservations last year is 0.36
 EXAMPLE of General
Rule of Multiplication
A gumball machine is filled with
50 black, 150 white, 100 red, • Answer
and 100 yellow gumballs that • P(R) = probability of getting red gumball
have been thoroughly mixed. • P(R and R) = (100/400)(99/399) = 0.0620
Sue and Jim each purchased one • The likelihood both Sue and Jim get. red
gumball. What is the likelihood gumballs is 0.062
both Sue and Jim get red
gumballs?
Practice Exercises
A board of directors consists of • Answer
eight men and four women. A • P(All Four Women) =
four-member search committee is (4/12)(3/11)(2/10)(1/9)
randomly chosen to recommend a = 0.002.
new company president. What is • The probability that all four members
the probability that all four of the search committee will be
members of the search committee women is 0.002.
will be women?
Practice Exercises
In a management trainee program, • Answer
80% of the trainees are female, 20% • First, the conditional probability that a
male. A total of 90% of the females person attended college given the person is
female is P(college | female) = 0.90
attended college, while 78% of the
• The complement is P(no college | female) =
males attended college. A 0.10
management trainee is selected at • P(female and no college) = P(female)P(no
random. What is the probability that college | female) = (0.8)(0.1) = 0.08
the person selected is a female who • The probability that the person selected is a
did NOT attend college? female who did NOT attend college is 0.08.
 CONTINGENCY TABLE
A table used to classify sample observations according to two or more
identifiable characteristics.
D D’ QUESTION ANSWER

Dry Not Dry Totals

P(N) 45,706/48,673 or 0.9390
N – North 14,131 31,575 45,706
America
What is P (D′/ N′ ) 2,563/2,967 or 0.8638
N’ – South 404 2,563 2,967
America
Totals 14,535 34,138 48,673 What is P (D′ )∙ P (N /D′) =
P(D’ and N)? 34,138 31,575 31,575
( )( ) =( ) or
48,673 34,138 48,673
0.6487
 A sample of executives were surveyed about loyalty to their company. One of the questions
was, “If you were given an offer by another company equal to or slightly better than your present
position, would you remain with the company or take the other position?” The responses of the
200 executives in the survey were cross-classified with their length of service with the company

• What is the probability of randomly

selecting an executive who is loyal to
the company (would remain) and who
has more than 10 years of service?
• P(𝐴1 and 𝐵4)= P(𝐴1 )P(𝐵4 / 𝐴1 )
= (120 /200)(75 /120)
= (9,000 /24,000 )
= .375
 PRINCIPLES OF COUNTING
Multiplication Formula • An electronics firm sells four models of
stereo receivers, three amplifiers, and six
speaker brands. When the three types of
If there are m ways of doing components are sold together, they form a
"system." How many different systems can
one thing and n ways of doing the electronics firm offer?
another thing, there are m × n • Answer
ways of doing both. Let n = number of different systems can
the electronics firm offer
total number of • n = (4)(3)(6) = 72 ways
arrangements = (m)(n)
 PERMUTATION FORMULA
It is applied to find the possible • A sales representative has 35
number of arrangements when there customers throughout the state and
is planning a trip during which 20
is only one group of objects. will be visited. In how many orders
can the visits be made?
• Answer
where: n = 35 ; r = 20
35!
n is the total number of objects. nPr= 35−25 !

r is the number of objects selected = 7.9019 or 8 orders

 COMBINATION FORMULA
If the order of the selected objects is not • The ABCD football association is considering a Super
Ten Football Conference. The top 10 football teams in
important, any selection is called a the country, based on past records, would be members
of the Super Ten Conference. Each team would play
combination every other team in the conference during the season
and the team winning the most games would be
declared the national champion. How many games
would the conference commissioner have to schedule
each year? (Remember, Oklahoma versus Michigan is
the same as Michigan versus Oklahoma.)
where: • Answer
n = 10 ; r = 2
n is the total number of objects.
10C2 =10!/2! (10 − 2)!
r is the number of objects selected = 45 games
 Practice Set 1 • Answer
n=3;r=3
How many
3!
permutations of the • 3P3=
3−3 !
three letters C, D,
and E are possible?
 Practice Set 2
A national pollster has developed
15 questions designed to rate the
performance of the President of
the United States. The pollster will
select 10 of these questions. How
many different arrangements are
there for the order of the 10
selected
 Practice Set 3
A pollster randomly
selected 4 of 10
available people. How
many different groups of
4 are possible?
PRACTICE SET 4
A computer password consists
of four characters. The
characters can be one of the 26 ANSWER:
letters of the alphabet. Each
n = (26) (26) (26) (26)
character maybe used more than
once. How many different = 456, 976 password
passwords are possible?