SMJK CHUNG HWA CONFUCIAN PULAU PINANG 2 2 1

2. (a) It is given P(X) = , 𝑃𝑃(𝑌𝑌|𝑋𝑋) = and 𝑃𝑃(𝑌𝑌 �𝑋𝑋′) = , calculate

STPM 2021 SEM 3 TRIAL EXAMINATION 3 5 4
(i) P(Y’) [4m]
954/3 MATHEMATICS T (Paper 3) (ANSWER)
(ii)P ( X ′ ∪ 𝑌𝑌′) [2m]
1.(a) Consider six positive numbers 2, 3, 6, 9, x and x+ k. The mean of the numbers (b) The code contains digits 1, 2, 3, 3, 4 and alphabets A, A, E, U.
is 6 and the variance is 10. Find the value of x and k. [5m] (i) Find how many different arrangements using all nine symbols. [1m]
(b) A survey was made of the number of audience watching a thriller movie on one (ii) If the digits and alphabets have to be arranged alternately, how many
Saturday night. A random sample 500 cinemas was taken. The results are as different arrangements are possible? [2m]
follows.
Number of Working Marks Note
1-20 21-40 41-60 61-100 101-200 201-300 (a) P(YX )
2
=5
audiences
number of (i) 𝑃𝑃(𝑋𝑋 ⋂ 𝑌𝑌) 2
46 110 122 100 86 36 =
cinema 𝑃𝑃(𝑋𝑋) 5
Estimate the median. [2m] 4
.𝑃𝑃(𝑋𝑋 ⋂ 𝑌𝑌) = 15
Working Marks Note . 𝑃𝑃(𝑌𝑌 �𝑋𝑋′) = 4
1 Use the formula
(a) 2 + 3 + 6 + 9 + 𝑥𝑥 + (𝑥𝑥 + 𝑘𝑘) M1 Attempt to find the P(YX )
=6 𝑃𝑃(𝑋𝑋′ ⋂ 𝑌𝑌) 1
mean = M1 or
6 𝑃𝑃(𝑋𝑋′) 4
2𝑥𝑥 + 𝑘𝑘 = 16 ⋯ (1) Use the formula
1
22 + 32 + 62 + 92 + 𝑥𝑥 2 + (𝑥𝑥 + 𝑘𝑘)2 M1 Attempt to find the .𝑃𝑃(𝑋𝑋′ ⋂ 𝑌𝑌) = P(YX’ )
− (6)2 12
6 variance
= 10
P(Y) = 𝑃𝑃(𝑋𝑋 ⋂ 𝑌𝑌) + 𝑃𝑃(𝑋𝑋′ ⋂ 𝑌𝑌)
= +
4 1 M1 Sub his value
2𝑥𝑥2 + 2𝑘𝑘𝑘𝑘 + 𝑘𝑘 2 = 146 ⋯ (2) 15 12
Sub (1) into (2) M1 Attempt to solve =
7
20
𝑥𝑥2 − 16𝑥𝑥 + 55 = 0 7 13 M1A1
P(Y’) = 1- 20 = 20
(𝑥𝑥 − 5)(𝑥𝑥 − 11) = 0 A1 CAO
𝑥𝑥 = 5 𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜 𝑥𝑥 = 11 (ii) P ( X ′ ∪ 𝑌𝑌′) = 1- 𝑃𝑃(𝑋𝑋 ⋂ 𝑌𝑌) M1 Attempt to find
A1 CAO
𝑘𝑘 = 6 𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜 𝑘𝑘 = −6 = 1-
4 P( X ′ ∪ 𝑌𝑌′) using
15
11 correct method
= A1 CAO
(b) 1
(500)−156 15
Median = 40.5 + 2 122
(20) M1 Correct formula
= 55.91 A1 (b)(i) Total number of arrangements
9!
= 2!2! = 90720 A1
(ii) Number of arrangements
=
5! 4!
= 720 M1A1
2!2!

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3.(a) A library resource center has 4 laptops for loan. Assuming the number of
requests for laptops per day follows a Poisson distribution with mean 3.8,
find the probability that 4.(a) An independent random sample is taken from a normally distributed population
(i) a borrower finds that all the laptops are out on loan. [3m] with mean 80 and variance 25. Determine the smallest sample size so that the
(ii) on two successive occasions, a borrower’s request for a laptop is met. sample mean exceeds the population mean by at least 2 with a probability not
[2m] exceeding 0.01. [5m]
(b) The probability that a train arrives early or on schedule is 0.2. If it arrives (b) When sampling for proportion of defective item in a large shipment with the
early or on schedule, the probability that the train is full is 0.2 and if it is late, population proportion of 0.18 and the sample size of 200, what is the
the probability that the train is full is 0.6. Given that the train is full on a probability that the sample proportion will be at least 0.2? [3m]
particular day, what is the probability that it was late on that day? [3m]
Working Marks Note
Working Marks Note 4(a) X~N(80,25)
(a)(i) X ~ number of request for laptops per 25
𝑋𝑋�~N(80 , ) B1
day B1 𝑛𝑛
X ~ Po(3.8) P(𝑋𝑋� − 80 ≥ 2) ≤ 0.01 M1
.𝑃𝑃(𝑋𝑋 ≥ 4) P(𝑍𝑍 ≥
2+80−80
) ≤ 0.01
.= 1 − 𝑃𝑃(𝑋𝑋 ≤ 3) �
25
𝑛𝑛
.= 1 − [𝑒𝑒 −3.8 + 𝑒𝑒 −3.8 (3.8) + 2
𝑒𝑒 −3.8 (3.8)2 𝑒𝑒 −3.8 (3.8)3 M1 ≥ 2.326 M1
2!
+ 3! 25
�
= 1- 0.47348 A1 𝑛𝑛
= 0.5265 𝑛𝑛 ≥ 33.81 M1
(ii) .𝑃𝑃(𝑋𝑋 ≤ 3) × 𝑃𝑃(𝑋𝑋 ≤ 3) 𝑛𝑛𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚 = 34 A1
= (0.47348)2 M1
= 0.2242 A1
(b) P~N(0.18,
0.18×0.82
) B1
200
(b) 𝑃𝑃(𝐿𝐿|𝐹𝐹) =
𝑃𝑃(𝐿𝐿 ⋂ 𝐹𝐹) M1 Use the correct formula P(Ps≥ 0.2)
𝑃𝑃(𝐹𝐹)
= P(𝑍𝑍 ≥
0.2−0.18
) M1
0.8 × 0.6 M1 Substitute his value 0.18×0.82
= �
200
(0.2 × 0.2) + (0.8 × 0.6)
= P( Z≥ 0.73621)
= 0.9231 A1 CAO = 0.2308 A1

2
5. The mean time to serve a customer at a bank counter was estimate by the 6. A laboratory technician observed the number of radiation in one-minutes intervals
management as 12 minutes per customer. A random sample of 150 customers and recorded the result in the following table.
gave ∑ 𝑥𝑥 = 2130 and ∑ 𝑥𝑥2 = 37746 where x is the time in minutes, to serve a Number of 0 1 2 3 4 5 or
customer. radiation more
(a) Calculate the unbiased estimates of population mean and variance. [3m] Frequencies 10 12 14 16 8 0
(b) Stating the null and alternative hypotheses, use a 10% significance level to test Test the goodness of fit at 5% level of significance using a Poisson distribution
whether the management’s estimate time is consistent with the data.[4m] model. [6m]

Working Marks Note Working Marks Note

5(a) 2130 B1 6. Ho : The distribution follows Poisson distribution. B1 Both
𝜇𝜇̂ = = 14.2
150 H1 : The distribution does not follows Poisson distribution.
�
150 37746 M1 X~Po(2) B1
𝜎𝜎 2 = [ (14.2)2 ]
149 150
7500 No of Oi Ei
= 𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜 50.34 A1
149 radiation M1 At least 2
(b) Ho : 𝜇𝜇 = 12 H1 : 𝜇𝜇 ≠ 12 B1 Both 0 10 0.1353 × 60 = 8.12 correct Ei
𝛼𝛼= 0.10 1 12 0.2706 × 60 = 16.24
Reject H0 if |𝑍𝑍| > 1.645 2 14 0.2706 × 60 = 16.24 M1 All correct
14.2−12
𝑍𝑍 = 50.34 M1 Standardization 3 16 0.1804 × 60 = 10.82
�
150 ≥4 8 0.1431 × 60 = 8.58
= 3.7978 A1 𝛼𝛼= 0.05, v= 5-1-1 = 3
Z= 3.7978 (> 1.645) X2critical = 7.815
Reject Ho at 𝛼𝛼= 0.05 A1 X2cal = 4.3703 M1 Correct
Hence, the management’s estimate
method
time is not consistent with the data.
X2cal = 4.3703(<7.815)
Insufficient evidence to reject Ho at 𝛼𝛼= 0.05. A1
Hence, the distribution follows Poisson
distribution.

3
 = 𝑃𝑃(𝑍𝑍 > 1.4363) A1
2
7.(a)(i) The function 𝑓𝑓(𝑥𝑥) = 3(1 − 𝑥𝑥) is defined for 0 ≤ 𝑥𝑥 ≤ 1, and zero = 0.07546
otherwise.
Show that f(x) is a probability density function. [2m] Working Marks Note
(ii) X represent the time in hours, a student spend in the gym. 400 observations (b)(i) X= Number of students who walked t
of the value of X were made. Y is the number of occasions the value of school B1
X>0.5. Estimate the probability that on at least 60 occasions he spent at least X~B(15, 0.2)
30 minute in the gym. [4m] 𝑃𝑃(𝑋𝑋 ≤ 2) = 𝑃𝑃(𝑋𝑋 = 0) + 𝑃𝑃(𝑋𝑋 = 1) + 𝑃𝑃(𝑋𝑋 = 2)
(b) In a small town, 1 out of 5 students on average walking to school. = (0.8)15 + 15(0.2)(0.8)14 M1
(i) A random sample of 15 students is taken. Find the probability that at most 2 15
+ � � (0.2)2 (0.8)13 A1
walked to school. [3m] 2
= 0.398
(ii) Find the least value of n if there is a probability of at least 0.85 that a
sample of n students contains at least one who walked to school.[3m] (ii) 𝑃𝑃(𝑋𝑋 ≥ 1) > 0.85 B1
1 − (0.8)𝑛𝑛 > 0.85 M1
(iii) A school has 1600 students. Use a suitable approximation to find the (0.8)𝑛𝑛 < 0.15
probability that there are at least 290 students who walk to school.[3m] 𝑛𝑛 > 8.5 A1
𝑛𝑛𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚 = 9
Working Marks Note (iii) X~B(1600, 0.2)
7(a)(i) 1
Y→N(320, 256) B1
� 3(1 − 𝑥𝑥)2 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑
0 𝑃𝑃(𝑋𝑋 ≥ 290)
1 → 𝑃𝑃(𝑋𝑋 > 289.5)
= [−(1 − 𝑥𝑥)3 ]
0 289.5 − 320 M1
=1 M1 = 𝑃𝑃(𝑍𝑍 > )
√256
Area under the graph =1 = 𝑃𝑃(𝑍𝑍 > −1.90625)
∴ 𝑓𝑓(𝑥𝑥) 𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 𝑎𝑎 𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑 𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓. A1 = 0.9717 A1
(ii) 1
𝑃𝑃(𝑋𝑋 > 0.5) = � 3(1 − 𝑥𝑥)2 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑
0.5
1
= [−(1 − 𝑥𝑥)3 ]
0.5
= 0.125 B1
Y= Number of occasions he spent at 30
minutes in the gym
Y~B(400, 0.125)
Y→N(50,43.75) B1
𝑃𝑃(𝑌𝑌 ≥ 60)
→ 𝑃𝑃(𝑌𝑌 > 59.5)
59.5 − 50
= 𝑃𝑃(𝑍𝑍 > ) M1
√43.75

4
8. The mean and standard deviation of the yield of a type of rice in Malaysia are
960kg per hectare and 192 kg per hectare. From a random sample of 30 farmers in Working Marks Note
Kedah who plant this rice, the mean yield of rice is 996kg per hectare. (d) As 𝜇𝜇 = 960kg under Ho is within the 99%
(a) Construct a 99% confidence interval for the mean yield of rice. State your confidence interval 905.7< 𝜇𝜇 < 1086.3, we B1
assumption. [5m] can conclude that there is insufficient
(b) What is the effect on the interval obtained in (a) if the sample size is increased evidence to reject the null hypothesis Ho: 𝜇𝜇 = B1
to 100? [2m] 960kg at 1% significance level. This is
(c) Carry out a test, at the 1% significance level, to test the mean yield of consistent with the result of the hypothesis
rice.[6m] test in part (c).
(d) Relate the confidence interval obtained in (a) with the result in (c)
[2m]

Working Marks Note

8(a) (996 ± 2.576 192 ) B1 2.576
30√ M1 996±
M1 substituion
= (905.7 , 1086.3) A1 3, 4, 5 sf
Assume that the mean yield of rice is normal B1
distribution.
(b) If the sample size is increased, the interval B1
width/ length of interval will decreased. B1

Working Marks Note

(c) Ho : 𝜇𝜇 = 960 H1 : 𝜇𝜇 ≠ 960 B1 Both
𝛼𝛼= 0.01
Reject Ho if Z < -2.576 or Z > 2.576 B1
996−960
𝑍𝑍 = 192 M1
√30
= 1.027 A1
Z= 1.027 (-2.576 < Z < 2.576) A1
Insufficient evidence to reject Ho at 𝛼𝛼= 0.01
Hence, the mean yield of rice is 960kg per B1
hectare.