3/6/2024

Chapter 6. System Modelling

Nguyen VP Nguyen, Ph.D.

Department of Industrial & Systems Engineering, HCMUT
Email: [email protected]

Chapter 1 Formulation
What is Chapter 6
Simulation? • System modeling: Conceptual
Define a & Logical modeling
• Terminology model • ARENA’s logics
• Classification Chapter 7 Chapter 7
Chapter 3
Contruct and
Input Analysis
Spreadsheet verify a model
Simulation Chapter 8 Chapter 9
Chapter 5
Modeling Steady-state
Chapter 2 & Descrete Event Operations Analysis
4:
Simulations
• Review
Statistics
Run pilots and
• Review • Simple Queueing validate the
Distributions Theory model
• Arrival Rates
• Service Rates Chapter 10
• Stability Process
• LITTLE’s law Make runs
Analysis
• Modeling of a system
Chapter 11
• Performance
Measures Analyze output data

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System modeling
• System modeling is the process of developing
abstract models of a system, with each model
presenting a different view or perspective of that
system.
• System modeling has now come to mean
representing a system using some kind of
graphical notation.
• System modeling helps the analyst
1. to understand the functionality of the system
2. To used models to communicate with system
stakeholders/ customers/ clients.

Abstract models (Mô hình trừu tượng)

• To select the level of detail to include in a model
 The amount of information that is contained in the
model
 The levels of abstraction lower, the quantity of
information in a model decreases
• Example:
I. Plant Level
A. Factory
a. Shop Level
i. Line Level
i. Workcell Level

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Existing and Planned System Models

• Models of the existing system are used during
requirements engineering, in order to
1. clarify what the existing system does
2. to be used as a basis for discussing its strengths and
weaknesses.
3. to lead to requirements for the new system.
• Models of the new system are used during
requirements engineering to help explain the
proposed requirements to other system stakeholders.
1. to discuss design proposals
2. to document the system for implementation.
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A Definition of a Conceptual Model

• See below figure, four key processes in the

development and use of a simulation model:
four key processes outcome of each process
conceptual modeling a conceptual model
a computer
model coding
model
solutions to the problem
situation or
experimentation
a better understanding of
the real world
improvements to the real
implementation
world
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• The double arrows illustrate the iterative nature of the

The Conceptual Model process
in the Simulation • The circular diagram illustrates the potential to repeat
Project Life‐Cycle the process of improvement through simulation
• Missing from this diagram are the verification and
(Robinson 2011) validation activities

CONCEPTUAL MODELING

• Conceptual modeling is the activity of deciding

what to model and what not to model – ‘model
abstraction’.
• A conceptual model describes
 objectives
 inputs (experimental factors)
 outputs (responses)
 model content

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Key components of the conceptual model
• Objectives:
 the purpose of the model and modelling project.
 the time-scales for the project and the nature of the model and its use
(e.g. requirements for the flexibility of the model, run-speed, visual
display, ease-of-use and model/component reuse)

• Inputs (the experimental factors):

 are the elements of the model that can be altered to effect an
improvement in, or better understanding of, the real world;
 also known as the experimental factors.

• Outputs: report the results from simulation runs

 to determine whether the modelling objectives have been achieved;
 or, to point to reasons why the objectives are not being achieved, if they
are not. 9

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CONCEPTUAL MODELING

• Requirements of a conceptual model:

1. Validity Validity: the conceptual model will
lead to a simulation model that is
2. Credibility sufficiently accurate for the purpose at
hand
3. Utility
Credibility: the conceptual model will
4. Feasibility lead to a simulation model that is
understandable, ease of
Utility: the conceptual model understanding and transparency for
will lead to a simulation the purpose at hand
model that is useful as an
Feasibility: the conceptual model
aid to decision making, easy
will lead to a simulation model that is
for execution, value to client
elegance, feasibility on time and cost
and usability
to build model and to run model
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Methods of the conceptual model

• Content: the components that are represented in the
model and their interconnections. The content can be split
into two dimensions
 The scope of the model: the model boundary of the real system
that is to be included in the model.
 The level of detail: the detail to be included for each component in
the model’s scope.
Technique 1: Assumptions made either when there are
uncertainties or beliefs about the real world being modelled
 are a facet of limited knowledge or presumptions
Technique 2: Simplifications (scope of the model, level of
detail) incorporated in the model to enable more rapid
model development and use
 are a facet of reducing the complexity of the model 13

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Framework for conceptual modelling page 24

• Four key elements

1. Develop an understanding of the problem situation
2. Determine the modelling objectives
3. Design the conceptual model: Inputs and outputs
4. Design the conceptual model: The model content
• Remember that conceptual modelling is an
iterative process!

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How to develop a conceptual model

1. Develop an understanding of the problem

situation
 Clients might not have a good understanding of the
cause and effect relationships within the problem
situation
 Clients have different world view
 While learning from clients the modeller needs to play
an active role
 Modeller needs to confirm his/her understanding by
providing a description of the problem situation for the
client

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How to develop a conceptual model

• Case Study: Fast-Food Restaurant

 A fast-food restaurant is experiencing problems
with one of its branches in its network.
Customers regularly complain about the length
of time they have to queue at the service
counters.
 It is apparent that this is not the result of
shortages in food, but a shortage of service
personnel.

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How to develop a conceptual model

2. Determining the modelling objectives

• Modelling objectives determine the nature of the
model
• Modelling objectives determine level of
abstraction and simplification
• Modelling objectives are a reference point for
model validation
• Modelling objectives guide for experimentation
The purpose of the modelling study is not the
development of the model itself but to develop a tool to
aid decision making
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How to develop a conceptual model

2. Determining the modelling objectives (cont)
• Forming the objectives:
• By the end of the study what do we hope to achieve?
– What does the client want to achieve?
– What level of performance is required?
– What constraints must the client (modeller) work within?
• Modeller should be willing to suggest additional
objectives and to redefine or eliminate objectives
suggested by the clients
• It is important that the clients understands what a
simulation model can and cannot do for them;
managing the expectations of the client
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How to develop a conceptual model

• Case Study: Fast-Food Restaurant

 What does the client want to achieve?
 What level of performance is required?
 What constraints must the client (modeller) work within?
• Objective:
 The number of service staff required during each period
of the day to ensure that 95% of customers queue for
less than 3 minutes for service.
• Constraint:
 Due to space constraints, a maximum of six service
staff can be employed at any one time.
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How to develop a conceptual model

3. Design the conceptual model: Inputs and outputs
• Experimental factors (inputs):
 Often, they are the means by which it is proposed that the
modelling objectives are to be achieved
 They can be either qualitative or quantitative
 They are often under control of the clients; however, also
factors that are not under control of the client should be
considered as this improves the understanding of the real
system
• Responses (outputs):
 Measures used to identify whether the objectives have been
achieves
 Measures used to identify reasons for failure to meet
objectives (e.g. bottlenecks)
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• Notes:
 If possible, the range over which experimental factors
are to be varied as well as the method of data entry
should be defined
 During the course of the simulation study review the
experimental factors and responses when objectives
are changing!

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How to develop a conceptual model

• Case Study: Fast-Food Restaurant

 Objective:
͟ The number of service staff required during each period of the day to
ensure that 95% of customers queue for less than 3 minutes for
service.
 Constraint:
͟ Due to space constraints, a maximum of six service staff can be
employed at any one time.
 Experimental factors?
͟ Staff roster
 Responses:
͟ % of customers queuing for less than 3 minutes
͟ Histogram of waiting time for each customer in the queue
͟ Time series of mean queue size by hour
͟ Staff utilisation 23

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How to develop a conceptual model

4. Design the conceptual model: The model content
• Model must be able to accept the experimental
factors and to provide the required responses
• Scope of the model must be sufficient to provide link
between the experimental factors and responses
• Scope of the model must also include any other
processes that have a significant impact on the
response
• Level of detail must be such that it represents the
components defined within the scope and their
interconnections with sufficient accuracy
• Use rapid prototyping throw away models to decide
about scope and level of detail

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Representing the conceptual model

• Methods of representation in common use

 Component list (Name of Component’s Scope,
Detail, Decision)
 Simple Process flow diagram
͟ provides a picture of your process
͟ defines the starting and ending points for a process
flow diagram is very important
͟ Uses only two shapes : rectangle for a step in the
process and a circle for starting and ending points in
the process.

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Component list

• Provides a list of the components in the model

with some description of the detail included for
each.
• Example for the single server queue.

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Start

A Simple
Process
Flow
Diagram for
Empowering
a Project
Team

End

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How to develop a conceptual model

• Case Study: Fast-Food Restaurant

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How to develop a conceptual model

• Case Study: Fast-Food Restaurant

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How to develop a conceptual model

• Case Study: Fast-Food Restaurant

Enter 1 Service 1

Customer Arrival Enter 2 Service 2 Customer Exit

Enter 3 Service 3

Enter 4 Service 4

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How to develop a conceptual model

• Data for model realisation are not required for
conceptual modelling, but are identified by the
conceptual model
• Sometimes it is difficult or even impossible to
obtain adequate data making the proposed
conceptual model problematic!
• What can we do in these cases?
 Redesign the conceptual model and leave out the
troublesome data
 Estimate the data
 Treat data as an experimental factor rather than a fixed
parameter

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THE LOGICAL STRUCTURE

• The representation of the system’s states implies

the abstraction of the relevant entities and the
way in which they engage in activities or
processes to attain the objectives of the system
• Entities are single or compound components of
the system that interact to accomplish some
intended purpose.
 They pass through different states and may require
resources to perform that transition.
 The attributes and trajectories of entities are tracked
over simulated time in order to understand the
behaviour of the system.
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• Activities and processes are single operations and

blocks of related operations that transit one or more
entities from one state to another.
 Attending lectures, writing coursework and sitting exams are
activities of the education system that could be joined
together in a process
• Entities, activities and processes and the order in
which they engage, together define the logical
structure of the model. This leads to the model’s state
transition and to the representation of each state by a
set of variables which suits the purpose of the
simulation study.
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Representing a logical structure

• Methods of representation in common use
 Logic flow diagram (lưu đồ logic, biểu đồ qui trình logic)
 Or standard flow diagram symbols; flow chart
• Purpose:
 to represent the logic of the model rather than the process flow.
 These diagrams are good for capturing logic and the nomenclature
(devising or choosing of names for things)
• Software: Visio, Flowcharter
• Four basic flow chart process symbols
 Oval
 Rectangle
 Tilted parallelogram
 Diamond
Start and Stop Oval
 designate both the start and stop processes.
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Representing a logical structure

• Showing each component of the system in a sequence and
including some description of the model detail
• A process might be shown as a box and a queue as a circle.

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Representing a logical structure (cont)

Process Rectangle
 to represent general-purpose processes
 The process rectangle is normally entered from the top
or the left side.
 It is exited from either the bottom or the right side.
Input/ Output
 used for processes that involve some sort of input or
output.

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Logic flow diagram (cont)

• Decision Diamond
 used to represent a decision in the flow chart logic.
 one input connector but two output connectors
 The output connectors can leave through either of the
side vertices or the bottom vertex. The output
connectors must specifically be labeled as either true or
false or yes or no.

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Logic flow diagram (cont) 40

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Kaizen Process
Flow Diagram

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ARENA’s logics
• Active customers vs passive servers
• Step 1: Generate am arrival time: exp
• Step 2: Active customers: if the server is free, an active customer
proceeds, otherwise waits in the queue, seize a server, generate a
random delay that represents the service time, then release the server
• Step 3: Update statistics
• Step 4: If there is a waiting customer, remove it from the queue and
activate it  Step 2

QU EU E

Create 1 Process 1 Dispose 1

0 0
0
GENERATOR OF CU STOMERS SERVER(S)

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An example of Modeling and DES

The production process of a bakery

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Conceptual Model

Logical Structure

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An ARENA Simulation Logic Model

Objectives:
1. A
Key Performance:
2. B
1. P1
3. C
2. P2
4. …
1. To evaluate the utilization of the production 3. P3
line 4. … 1. Average customer waiting
time
2. To find solutions towards solving the 2. Average number of
bottleneck and rectifying the line to improve customers in queue
productivity 3. Average server utilization
3. To analyze an existing production line in
which the product has a rising demand. 45

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InClass Assignment
• Tên nhóm, các thành viên nhóm (có mặt)
• Mô tả trong bài nộp
 Objectives of solving the problem
 Input:
͟ _
͟ _
͟ ..
 Content:
͟ Component list
͟ A Simple Process Flow Diagram và
͟ A Logical Diagram
 Output:
͟ …
͟ …
͟ … 46

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