fins
s
Bun
Muf
on
es
rry
nam
cak
ebe
Cup
Day
Blu
Cin
1 30 18 45
2 34 17 26 Sales (in dozens)
60
3 32 19 27
4 34 19 23 50
5 35 22 22
6 30 23 48 40
7 34 23 29
30
8 36 25 20
9 29 24 14 20
10 31 26 18
11 35 27 47 10
12 31 28 26
0
13 37 29 27 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
14 34 31 24
Blueberry Muffins Cinnamon Buns Cupcakes
15 33 33 22
a. Day 16 Prediction for:
Blueberry Muffins (Stable) = 33 units
Cinnamon Buns (Trend) = 35 units
Cupcakes (Seasonal) = 47 units
The use of sales data instead of demand should imply that the bakery is basing its production on the actual sales that occurred in the previous
period rather than the anticipated demand. Using sales data instead of demand suggests a more customer-centric and efficient approach to
b. production and inventory management.
Sales (000 units)
)
nits
25
00 u
20
0
es (
th
Mon
Sal
a. 15
Feb. 19
Mar. 18 10
Apr. 15
May 20 5
Jun. 18
Jul. 22 0
Aug. 20 Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug.
b. (1) September Sales Forecast = 20 units
b. (2) September Sales Forecast = (15+20+18+22+20)/5 = 19 units
b. (3) September Sales Forecast = 0.60(20) + 0.30(22) + 0.10(18) = 20.4 0r 20 units
b. (4) September Sales Forecast = 19.26 or 19 units
t
n
s
utio
eca
h t
Mon
For
Sol
April 18.80 19+(0.20(18-19))
May 18.04 18.8+(0.20(15-18.8))
June 18.43 18.04+(0.20(20-18.04))
July 18.35 18.432+(0.20(18-18.432))
August 19.08 18.3456+(0.20(22-18.3456))
September 19.26 19.0765+(0.20(20-19.0765))
b. (5) September Sales Forecast = 20.86 or 21 units
2
x^
xy
x
1 19 19 1
2 18 36 4
3 15 45 9
4 20 80 16
5 18 90 25
6 22 132 36
7 20 140 49
28 132 542 140
x-bar = 4
y-bar = 18.86
b= 0.50
a= 16.86
y = 16.86 + 0.50x
y8 = 20.86
c. the naïve method would be least appropriate as sales per month varies and assuming that it would stay constant would be inaccurate.
the use of sales data instead of demand presumes that the business is basing its production on the actual sales that occurred
in the previous period rather than the anticipated demand, ssuggesting a more customer-centric and efficient approach to
d. production and inventory management.
a. based on the linear trend equation, annual sales increase by 15,000 bottles.
b. F6 = 80 + 15(6) = 170
annual sales for year 6, using the equation, would amount to 170,000 bottles
a. averaging techniques is more applicable to data that shows no clear trend or pattern. in this case, averaging technique wouldn't be
b. appropriate to forecast the expected number of passengers for the following weeks as the airline shows an upward trend (number
of passengers are increasing weekly). averaging techniques would smoothen the trend causing an inaccurate prediction of the
expected number of passengers for the following weeks.
2
x^
x^
x^
xy
xy
xy
x
y
1 405 405 1 1 405 405 1 1 405 405 1
2 410 820 4 2 410 820 4 2 410 820 4
3 420 1260 9 3 420 1260 9 3 420 1260 9
4 415 1660 16 4 415 1660 16 4 415 1660 16
5 412 2060 25 5 412 2060 25 5 412 2060 25
6 420 2520 36 6 420 2520 36 6 420 2520 36
7 424 2968 49 7 424 2968 49 7 424 2968 49
8 433 3464 64 8 433 3464 64 8 433 3464 64
9 438 3942 81 9 438 3942 81 9 438 3942 81
10 440 4400 100 10 440 4400 100 10 440 4400 100
11 446 4906 121 11 446 4906 121 11 446 4906 121
12 451 5412 144 12 451 5412 144 12 451 5412 144
13 455 5915 169 13 455 5915 169 13 455 5915 169
14 464 6496 196 14 464 6496 196 14 464 6496 196
15 466 6990 225 15 466 6990 225 15 466 6990 225
16 474 7584 256 16 474 7584 256 16 474 7584 256
17 476 8092 289 17 476 8092 289 17 476 8092 289
18 482 8676 324 18 482 8676 324 18 482 8676 324
19 484 9201 361 19 484 9196 361
20 489 9777 400
171 7931 77570 2109 190 8415.248366 86770.71895 2470 210 8903.841761 96542.83523 2870
x-bar = 9.5 x-bar = 10 x-bar = 10.5
y-bar = 440.61 y-bar = 442.91 y-bar = 445.19
b= 4.59 b= 4.59 b= 4.59
a= 396.97 a= 396.97 a= 396.99
y = 396.97 + 4.59x y = 396.97 + 4.59x y = 396.97 + 4.59x
y19 = 484 passengers y20 = 489 passengers y21 = 493 passengers
iod
al
actu
TAF
per
St
Tt
5 255 250.00 252.50 100.00
6 265 352.50 308.75 101.00
7 272 409.75 340.88 83.50
8 285 424.38 354.69 55.95
9 294 410.64 352.32 28.08
10 380.39 190.20 4.75
