Geologic Hazards

CVEN 3698
Engineering Geology
 Definitions
• A geologic hazard is one of several types of adverse geologic conditions
capable of causing damage or loss of property and life (Wikipedia)
• A geologic hazard shall mean a geologic condition or geologic process which
poses a significant threat to health, life, limb, or property. (BC Land Use
Department)
• A geologic constraint shall mean a geologic condition which does not pose a
significant threat to life or limb, but which can cause intolerable damage to
structures (BC Land Use Department)
• A geologic hazard is a natural geologic event that can endanger human lives
and threaten human property. Earthquakes, geomagnetic storms, landslides,
sinkholes, tsunamis, and volcanoes are all types of geologic hazards. The U.S.
Geological Survey (USGS) provides real-time hazard information on
earthquakes, landslides, geo-magnetics, and volcanoes, as well as background
information on all the types of hazards. [Link]
 Counties and Municipalities in Colorado regulate
geologic Hazards in four different ways
• Master and Land Use Plans for land use patterns and
development
• Zoning Regulations
• 1041 Regulations where hazardous areas are identified
• Land Use or Subdivision Codes
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Front Range Geologic Hazards Field Trip:

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 Two Types
• Hazards associated with particular earth
materials. Examples include swelling soils and
rocks, toxic minerals (asbestos, acid drainage)
and toxic gases (radon gas).
• Hazards associated with earth processes
(earthquakes, volcanoes, landslides,
avalanches, rock slides and rock falls, soil
creep, subsidence, floods, frost heave, coastal
hazards).
 Geologic Hazards
• Earthquakes
• Landslides
• Rockfall
• Volcanic lahars
• Debris flows
• Sink holes
• Subsidence
• Expansive soils
• Melting permafrost
 Man-made Hazards
• Natural hazards are complemented with man-
made hazards such as water pollution, mine
subsidence, rock bursts, pumping, waste disposal,
carbon emission, global warming, and ozone
depletion.
• Understanding these hazards requires a
multidisciplinary approach. These issues are
interdisciplinary with biology, engineering,
chemistry, and environmental sciences.
• [Link]
 Impacts of the 2004 Tsunami

Death toll: 228,000 people along the coastal areas of 11

countries in the Indian Ocean (approx. as of 1/23/05)
Source: [Link]

Between three and five million people in the region are

unable to access the basic requirements they need to stay
alive - clean water, adequate shelter, food, sanitation and
healthcare.
Source: WHO 12/30/2004

At least 1.6 million people affected by the disaster are in need

of food aid.
Source: Jan Egeland, UN Under-Secretary-General
In a small amount of time,
their world changed forever…
 Haiti Earthquake

• January 12, 2010, Magnitude 7.0

• 200,000+ people dead
 Coping with geologic hazards
• Avoid the areas where known hazards exist. Such
areas can be converted into parks, for instance.
• Evaluate the potential risk of a hazard, if
activated.
• Minimize the effect of the hazards by engineering
design and appropriate zoning.
• Develop a network of insurance and contingency
plans to cover potential loss or damage from
hazards.
 What is the Problem: The Need for a Resilient Nation

Photo: Joplin, MO after the May 22, 2011 tornado

Source: Charlie Ridel/AP Photo

 Beyond the unquantifiable costs of injury and loss of life from disasters, statistics for
2011 alone indicate economic damages from natural disasters in the United States
exceeded $55 billion, with 14 events costing more than $1 billion in damages each.

 No person or place is immune from disasters or disaster-related losses.

 Communities and the nation face difficult fiscal, social, cultural, and environmental
choices about the best ways to ensure security and quality of life against natural and
human-induced disasters.
 Resilience to Risk
• Effective risk management and capacity
building lead to community resilience

Risk = Event x Exposure x

(Vulnerability – Capacity)
 Capacity and Resilience

Resiliency dictates size of drop

and rebound rate for a given
event, context, and scale

- What level of disruption

is acceptable?
- What level of protection
are we willing to pay for?
- Critical vs. non-critical
 The Choice:
Proceed with the Status Quo OR Become More Resilient?

• Disasters continue to occur, both natural and human-made, throughout

the country; costs of responding continue to rise
• More people are moving to coasts and southern regions – higher
exposure to drought and hurricanes
• Population continues to grow and age
• Public infrastructure is aging beyond acceptable design limits
• Economic and social systems are becoming increasingly
interdependent
• Risk can not be completely eliminated; residual risk must be managed
• Impacts of climate change and environmental degradation of natural
defenses such as coastal wetlands make the nation more vulnerable
 What is Resilience?

The ability to prepare and plan for, absorb, recover from, or more successfully
adapt to actual or potential adverse events

Photo: Cedar Rapids, IA during the 2008 flooding

Source: AP photo/Jeff Robertson
 Characteristics of a Resilient Nation in 2030

 Individuals and communities are their own first line of defense against disasters.
 National leadership in resilience exists throughout federal agencies and Congress.
 Community-led resilience efforts receive federal, state, and regional investment and
support.
 Site-specific risk information is readily available, transparent, and effectively
communicated.
 Zoning ordinances are enacted and enforced. Building codes and retrofit standards are
widely adopted and enforced.
 A significant proportion of post-disaster recovery is funded through private capital and
insurance payouts.
 Insurance premiums are risk based.
 Community coalitions have contingency plans to provide service particularly to the
most vulnerable populations during recovery.
 Post-disaster recovery is accelerated by infrastructure redundancy and upgrades.

A resilient nation in 2030 also has a vibrant and diverse economy and a safer,
healthier, and better educated citizenry than in previous generations.
 Risk Analysis

• What could wrong? Impact? Costs?

Probability?
• Risk management: identification,
prioritization, resolution, and monitoring
of risks and their management
 Definitions
• Substitute “surprises” for “risks”
• Risk is the possibility that an undesired outcome –
or the absence of a desired outcome – disrupts a
project.
• Risks exist in all parts of ADIME-E framework
• An issue = certain (100%) risk
• Risk could be an opportunity
• Risk earmarks: uncertainty, loss, time component
• Risks prior to project and risks after projects
 Risks originate from
• Factors that are under the control of those
involved in the project such as poor planning,
design, management, and/or execution;
• Decisions made by others such as policy
makers and institutions not necessarily
directly involved in the project; and
• Uncontrollable factors such as those
associated with natural hazards or socio-
economic or political issues.

DFID, 2002
 Risk vs. Uncertainty
• Risks arise with the uncertainty of the
situation the project is faced with.
• Risk differs from uncertainty in the sense that
with risks, we have some ideas of the odds
that something will happen and we can assign
probabilities for that happening (Knight,
1921).
• Risks (what could go wrong?), risk drivers (what makes
each risk real), and likelihood (probability estimated
based on risk drivers);
• Impacts (cost, work days, calendar days, staff months,
space, etc), impact drivers (what makes each impact
real) and likelihood (probability estimated based on
impact drivers)
• Total possible loss expressed in quantitative way (time,
money, etc) or qualitative way (high, medium, low,
critical, etc).

Risk and Risk Impacts Impact Action Plan Monitoring

Drivers Likelihood and Likelihood and Metrics
Drivers
 Standard Risk Model
Expected loss: Le = Lt * Pe * Pi

time

Smith and Merritt, 2002

 Risk Management Process
Steps Critical Information
• Identify risks >>>>>>>>>> • Risks events and impacts
• Analyze risks >>>>>>>>>> • Drivers, probabilities, and total
loss
• Prioritize and map risks >>> • Subset of risks to be managed
• Action plan: avoidance,
• Resolve risks >>>>>>>>>>> transfer, redundancy,
mitigation (prevention,
contingency, reserves)
• Monitor risks >>>>>>>>>>> • Status and closure of risks;
identify new risks
Risk Map

For given
expected loss

Pe * Pi = Le /Lt
 Risk Management Strategies

• Avoid the risk by reversing decisions that were made that

would cause the risk. Abandoning the project might be an
option.
• Transfer the risk (or impact) to another party that may have a
better potential (knowledge, resources) to tackle the problem
• Redundancy thus reducing the effect of the risk event by
providing parallel solutions paths, and back-up options
• Tolerate risk but at the same time mitigate the risk/impact
and risk/impact drivers (to make it less severe) either by
developing: a prevention plan (works on reducing risk and risk
drivers); a contingency plan (works on impact and impact
drivers); or a reserve plan (risk occurs and we need to cover
the losses)
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 Earthquake Movie

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