URBAN TRANSPORTATION PLANNING

IV B TECH I SEM
DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING

SRKIT, ENIKEPADU
VIJAYAWADA
Urban transport planning , SRKIT 2023
Urban Transportation planning

Unit-1: Urban transportation Problem travel demand: Urban issues, Travel characteristics,
Evolution of planning Process, Supply and demand --Systems approach. Travel demand: Trades,
Overall planning process, Long term Vs Short term planning, Demand function, Independent
Variables, Travel attributes, Assumptions in demand Estimation, Sequential and simultaneous
Approaches, Aggregate and Disaggregate Techniques.

Unit-2: Data Collection and Inventories: Collection of data—Organization of surveys and

Analysis, Study area, Zoning, Types of source of data, Road side Interviews, Home interview
surveys, commercial vehicle surveys, Sampling Techniques, Expansion factors, Accuracy Checks,
Use of secondary sources, economic data—Income—Population –Employment—vehicle ownership.

Unit-3: Trip generation and distribution: UTPS approach, Trip generation analysis: Zonal
Models, Category Analysis, House hold models, Trip attraction models, Commercial trip rates.

Trip Distribution: Growth Factor Methods, Gravity Models, Opportunity Models, Time Function
iteration models. Bypass Trips.

Unit-4: Mode choice and traffic assignment: Mode choice behavior, Competing Modes,
Mode split curves, models and probabilistic approaches.

Traffic Assignment: Basic elements of Transport networks, coding, Route properties, path building
criteria, skimming tree, All-or-Nothing assignment, capacity Restraint Techniques, Reallocation of
assigned volumes, Equilibrium assignment, Diversion Curves.

Unit-5: Plan Preparation and Evaluation: Travel Forecasts to Evaluate Alternative

Improvements, Impacts of New Development on Transportation Facilities. Master plans, Selection
of corridor, Corridor Identification, Corridor deficiency analysis, Economic Impacts of transportatio

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Unit 3
Trip generation and distribution:

UTPS approach
The first phase of the transportation planning process deals with surveys, data collection and
inventory. The next phase is the analysis of the data so collected and building models to describe the
mathematical relationship that can be discerned in the trip-making behaviour. The analysis and
model building phase starts with the step commonly known as Trip Generation.
Trip Generation:
Trip generation is a general term used in the transportation planning process to calculate the number
of trip ends in a given area. The objective of the trip generation stage is to understand the reasons
behind the trip making behaviour and to produce mathematical relationships to synthesize the trip-
making pattern on the basis of observed trips, land-use data, transportation system characteristics,
trip maker characteristics and household characteristics.
Trip Types:
Trips can be defined based on the nature of movement between the zones and across the cordon
lines. They are also categorized based on the location of trip ends. Categorizations in use are:
• Intra-zonal trips
• Inter-zonal trips
• Through trips
• Home-based trips
• Non-home based trips

Intra-zonal, Inter-zonal and through trips are already defined while discussing transportation
surveys. The first activity in travel-demand forecasting is to identify the various trip types important
to a particular transport-planning study. The trip types studied in a particular area depend on the
types of transport-planning issues to be resolved. The first level of trip classification used normally
is a broad grouping into home-based and non-home-based trips.
Home- based trips: Home-based trips are those trips having one end of the trip (either origin or
destination) at the home of the persons making the trip.
Non-home-based trips: Non-home based trips are those trips having neither end at the home of
the person making the trip. The trip ends are classified into productions and attractions.

Trip Production: A production is the home end of any trip that has one end at the home (i.e. of a
homebase trip), or is the origin of a trip with neither end home based (i.e. of a non – home based
trip).

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Trip attraction models
: An attraction is the non-home end of a home-based trip, and is the destination of a trip with
neither end home-based (i.e. of a non-home-based trip).

This points towards one aspect related to trips generated, i.e. the total number of trips produced in
any area should be equal to the total number of trips attracted in that area. If trips produced are Pi in
zone ‘i’ and trips attracted are Aj towards zone ‘j’, then

Trip purpose:
Trips are made with different purposes and a classification of trips by purpose is necessary. Trip
classifications that have been used in the major transport-planning studies for home based trips are:
• Work
• Education
• Social
• Recreational and sports
• Shopping
• Others
Trip Mode:
Trip mode is the type of vehicle used by a person for traveling between an origin and destination.
Trip Time:
Trip time is the time taken while moving between a set of origin and destination.
Trip Length:
Trip length is the distance traveled between a set of origin and destination.

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Factors influencing trip production
Households may be characterized in many ways, but a large number of trip-production studies have
shown that the following variables are the most important characteristics with respect to the major
trip types such as work and shopping trips:
1. The number of workers in a household, and
2. The household income or some proxy of income, such as the number of cars per household.
Various fators that create an effect on the production of the trips are discussed below:
Population and its characteristics: The size of the population in an area obviously has an effect on
the total number of trips supposed to be produced from that area. This further can be looked at in
terms of:

a. Number of households in an area: More are the households more will be the trips.
b. Size and composition of the household: Bigger is the size of the household, it is
possible that more trips will be produced by that household. The composition defines the
members of a household involved in different activities that necessitates travel. This may
be related to work, education, shopping, recreation, etc and thus produces different types
of trips from a single household.
c. Population density: This is one factor that is discussed in detail with respect to the use
of different modes or travel. In general, if the density is more, more will be the trips from
that area.
Household Income: Disposable household income will define the possibility of trip making by
the members of a household.
Factors influencing attraction rates
1. Land use activities: Land use activities in an area define the type of the trips that will be
attracted towards that area. If the area is homogeneous in nature then the trips made to that area
will be of same nature but heterogeneous activities will attract different types of trips.
2. Employment opportunities: The employment potentiality of any area is defined by the type
of activity undertaken in that area. The industrial, shopping unit or an office establishment
directly governs the trip attraction rate.
3. Floor area allotted for the activities: Another factor to which the trip attraction rate can be
related is the floor space in the premises of industries, shops and offices. This will allow the
estimation of different trips which can be made to an area.

Factors affecting trip making patterns

1. Study Area characteristics: Certain characteristics of the study area affect the trip making
pattern in that area. These characteristics are discussed below.
a. Location of an activity: The distance of the activity zone from the household is an important
determinant of the amount of travel that people might like to do if needed. The further the
activity centre, the less the number of trips are likely to be to that activity.
b. Accessibility of an activity: Accessibility to an activity is governed by the type of network
facilities available in that area and the affordability of those facilities to the masses.

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Commercial trip rates Bypass Trips
Trip generation analysis
Methods of trip
generation
There are three main methods of generating trips from the study area. They are:
• Expansion factor method
• Least square regression analysis method
• Category analysis method
Expansion factor method
The expansion factor method uses past growth rates as a means of predicting future trips from
the estimated present trips. Such correlations can be developed with:
• Growth of traffic
• Rise in population
• Agricultural and industrial production
• Total mileage of roads
• Fuel consumption estimates
• Per capita income
• National GDP, etc.
Due to fast changing scenario and the complexities involved in the estimation of future values, the
use of this method is confined to short term forecasting in small urban or rural areas.
Category Analysis
Category Analysis or cross-classification technique is simply a technique for estimation of the trip
production characteristics of households which have been sorted in a number of separate categories
according to a set of properties that characterize the household. The method was developed by
Wotton and Pick and has been used in some transportation studies in U.K. A multidimensional
matrix defines the categories, each dimension in the matrix representing one independent variable.
The independent variables themselves are classified into a definite number of discrete class intervals.
Category analysis may also be used for estimating trip attractions.

Assumptions
The technique is based on the following assumptions:
(i) The household is the fundamental unit in the trip generation process, and most journeys
begin or end in response to the requirements of the family.
(ii) The trips generated by the household depend upon the characteristics of that household
and its location relative to its required facilities or activities.

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(iii) Households with one set of characteristics generate different rates of trips from households
with other set of characteristics.
(iv) Trip generation rates are stable over a time so long as factors external to the household are
the same as when the trips were first measured.
Trip attraction
Trip attraction rates can be made by analyzing the urban activities that attract trips.
Trips are attracted to various locations, depending on the character of, location, and
amount of activities taking place in a zone.
Three tools are used for this end too, but obviously types of independent variables used
are different.
Zonal Models
A Sample Zonal Attraction Model
The sample model estimate relative attractiveness by regressing factored values of sample trips
(aggregated to the zone level) on relevant zonal characteristics. The choice of explanatory variables
is constrained in a manner similar to trip productions models - model significance, policy sensitivity,
and forecastability. These models are summarized in Box 1.

Zonal Based Trip Generation Models

Zonal Based Models use zonal averages to estimate trip making.
One problem with this approach is that zonal averages may be deceptive depending on the
distribution of a given parameter.
For example, two zones with the same average income could have very different income
distribution and presumable different travel performances.
These models are referred to as AGGREGATE Models
House hold models
Household Based Trip Generation Models
Household Based Models use the household as the unit for estimating trip making.
The underlying assumption of household based models is the assumption that household with the
same characteristics (for example, same number of adults and cars, and same income) tend to have
the same travel tendenies

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As we have discussed, this assumption might or might not be true depending on the
characteristic of the land use in which the household is located
Based on this assumption average trip making is determined for each household category These
models are called DISAGGREGATE Models
A Sample Household Trip Production Model
A category model was estimated for household trips by purpose from the trip data and demographic
characteristics of the 200 sample households. Category variables are selected based on ability to
significantly discriminate trip rates between categories, general policy sensitivity, and the
availability of future data. Category models are less restrictive than regression models but require
that the joint distribution of population variables be forecast. A variety of methods have been used
with iterative proportional fitting perhaps the most direct. The role of activity system forecasts is
clear, as is the need for quality forecasts of automobile ownership since this variable is typically
most highly correlated with total trips per household. The resulting estimated trip rates are displayed
in Table 4 (to simplify presentation, rates from Martin and McGuckin (1998) are utilized).
Aggregation proceeds directly since the model is linear. Once the joint distribution of households is
known for the base or forecast year, the cell counts are multiplied by the estimated trip rates to
obtain the total number of trips per zone.
Trip Rate Analysis
Trip rate is estimated on characteristics of the trip generators with in the zone. Production rates are
determined using the characteristics of the residential land uses and attraction rates using the
characteristics of the nonresidential land uses
Trip Distribution
Introduction
Once estimate of the trips generated, i.e. produced from and attracted to the various zones, are made
the next step is to determine the direction of travel of these trips. The number of trips produced in
any zone of the study area has to be apportioned to the zones to which these trips are attracted. Say,
there are pi trips produced from zone i by trip maker’s category ‘q’ and aj is the number of trip ends
attracted to zone j, then the number of trips between zone ‘i’ and zone ‘j’ (i.e. tq
i-j) would be estimated using trip distribution technique. This can be represented in a matrix form as
given below:

The horizontal axis of the trip matrix shown represents the zones of attractions (i.e. destinations) and
the vertical axis represents the zones of production (i.e. origin) numbered from 1 to n. The total of
any individual row, i, represents the total number of trips produced in

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zone i (pi) and the total of any individual column, j, represents the number of trips attracted to zone j
(aj). Therefore,

Based on the future land uses in the zones and the area, the future trips going to be produced or
attracted from or to any zone are computed. These may be denoted as Pi and Aj respectively.
Methods of trip distribution
There are two categories of trip distribution methods, namely,
(i) Growth factor methods
(ii) Synthetic methods
Growth factor methods have been used in earlier studies and have yielded now to the more
rational synthetic models. Both of these categories are further divided as follows:

Growth factor methods:

(i) Uniform factor method
(ii) Average factor method
(iii) Detroit Method
(iv) Fratar method
(v) Furness method
(vi) Time function iteration method

Synthetic methods:
(i) Gravity Model
(ii) Tanner Model
(iii) Intervening opportunities model
(iv) Competing opportunities model

Growth Factor Methods The growth factor methods are based on the assumption that the present
travel patterns can be projected to the design year in the future by using expansion factors. This can
be represented by the
general formula as given below:
Ti-j = ti-j x F
Where, Ti-j = number of trips from zone I to zone j in design year (future) ti-j = number of trips
from zone I to zone j in observed base year F = growth factor

Uniform growth factor method

This is the oldest of the growth factor methods and considers the growth rate for the whole area. A
single growth factor, F, for the entire study area is calculated by dividing the future estimated
number of trip ends for the design year by the trip ends in the base year. The future trips between
zone i and j, Ti-j, are then calculated by applying the uniform growth factor F to the base year trips
between zones i and j, as,
Ti-j = ti-j x F

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Let us take one example: An O-D trip matrix for three zones in an area is given below. The
future trips produced and attracted from or towards these zones are 360, 1260 and 3120 respectively.
It is required to distribute the future trips among these zones.

Uniform growth factor F= 4740/1300 = 3.646

Multiplying the cells in the matrix by the uniform growth factor, the following matrix results:

Uniform growth factor (New) = 4740/4740 = 1.0 STOP

It can be noted that all the trips have been distributed among the zones. As the new growth factor is
equal to 1.0, the iteration can be stopped here. But the total number of trips generated from each
zone, as calculated, do not tally with the known future trip values for those zones. This is because of
the assumption of a uniform growth rate for all the zones. The method, therefore, suffers from the
following
disadvantages:
(i) The assumption of a uniform growth rate for the entire study is not correct,
because each zone will have its own growth rate and the rate of growth of
traffic movement between any two zones will be different.
(ii) The method under-estimates movements where present day development is
limited and over-estimates movements where present day development is
intensive.
(iii) If the present trip movement between any two zones is zero, the future trip
movement also becomes zero as per this method. This may rarely be the
case in reality.

Average growth factor method

In this method, an average growth factor between the two zones related to two trip ends is calculated
based on the growth factors of the zones at both the ends of the trip. This factor thus
represents theaverage growth associated both with the origin and the destination zones. The trip
values in the given matrix are then multiplied with the computed growth factor values between the
origin and destination

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ti-j= present trips from zone i to zone j

Fi = Pi/pi = growth factor related to trips produced from zone i Fj
= Aj/aj = growth factor for trips attracted to zone j
If after the iteration the trips produced or attracted (calculated) agrees with the trips produced or
attracted (for future) for each zone, the process is stopped. But if it is not so, then new growth
factors for each zone are computed and a new iteration is started. The process continues till the zonal
growth factors come out to be either 1.0 or very near to 1.0.

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As the growth factors of zones are not either 1.0 or near to 1.0, the next interaction starts till the
desired accuracy is reached.
The average factor method has the same disadvantages of the uniform factor method. The
multiplying factor has no real significance and is only a convenient tool to balance the movements.
There is no explanation of the movement between zones and the factors causing the movement. It
has the additional disadvantage that a large number of iterations are required. As in the case of the
uniform factor method, if ti-j is zero, Ti-j also becomes zero. Because of these drawbacks the
method is rarely used except for updating existing table and for quick results.

Detroit method
This method is the further improvement on average factor method and takes into account the growth
factor for zones and average growth factor for the entire study area. The trips are computed as:
The trips for zone connectivity 2-1, 3-1 and 3-2 will remain same as the reverse flow. The new O-D

trip matrix would be as given below:

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New growth factor for the whole study area F1 = 4740/4491 = 1.055
As the growth factors of zones are not either 1.0 or near to 1.0, the next interaction starts till the
desired accuracy is reached.

Fratar method
According to this method, the total trips for each zone are distributed to the inter-zonal movements,
as a first approximation, according to the relative attractiveness of each movement. This relative
attractiveness is considered in the form of Locational factor (L). The trips distributed can be
computed as follows:

Where Fi =growth factor for zone ‘i’ Fj

=growth factor for zone ‘j’
Li = Location factor for zone ‘i’
= Lj = Location factor for zone
j=
Now let us take another example to illustrate the actual procedure.

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The process is repeated to obtain a second iteration using values of new growth factors and inter-
zonal movements obtained from the first iteration till the growth factors for different production and
attraction zones become equal to or nearly equal to 1.0.
The procedure is laborious except for simple problems, but can be conveniently tackled by a
computer. It has the same drawbacks as observed in other growth factor methods. It is unable to
forecast trips for those areas which were predominantly under-developed during the base year. It
does not take into account the effect of changes in accessibility for various zones of the study area.

Furness method
The method requires the estimates of future traffic originating and terminating at each zone, thus
yielding origin growth factor and destination growth factors for each zone. The traffic movements
are made to agree alternately with the future traffic originating in each zone and

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the estimated future traffic terminating in each zone, until both these conditions are roughly
satisfied. Thus,

Time Function iteration models

This method assumes that the trip distance is influenced by the journey time and row and column
totals are nothing but trip ends. The method starts with converting the given O-D trip matrix into a
unity matrix and finding the growth factors for different production zones for the given future trips
produced from these zones. The procedure after this remains the same as that of Furness method.
Final trip matrix is then converted into travel time index matrix, which provides the effect of travel
time between the zones. The method can be understood from the example taken below.
Example: The trip frequency observed in actual for the given O-D trip matrix is as below:

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Iteration-3: Scale trip O-D matrix using attraction growth factors.

The procedure will continue till equilibrium is achieved. Now, the final O-D trip matrix is used to
compute the travel time index matrix. This can be computed as follows:
Cell value of travel time index matrix = ti-j from original matrix / Ti-j from final matrix
Say, the travel time index matrix is:

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The values obtained as such can be termed as friction factor or deterrent factor. This can be
represented as:
Friction factor = f (1/Travel time)
This can help in identifying settlement pattern.
Trips computed for different travel times are as follows:

The trip frequency data, observed and calculated, is presented as a frequency polygon. If the two
data sets do not match then new O-D adjustment factors are calculated and further these are used to
compute the final origin and destination trip values.

Gravity Models
The gravity model gets its name from the fact that it is conceptually based on Newton’s law of
gravitation. Accordingly it is heuristically derived for synthesizing trip interchanges. It states
that the trip interchange between zone ‘i’ and zone ‘j’ is directly proportional to the product of the
population of the two zones and is inversely proportional to a function of spatial separation of zones
under consideration.
This can be represented by the relationship given as below:

Where Ti-j = Trip interchanges between zones ‘I’ and ‘j’ Pi

= Population in zone ‘i’
Pj = Population in zone ‘j’
f(di-j) = Travel time factor function or friction factor, in terms of travel distance, travel time,
travel cost, etc. This may take different functional forms. One such form is (di-j)α K =
A constant, usually independent of ‘i’ and ‘j’
α = An exponential constant, whose value is usually found to lie between 1 and 3
This is known as unconstrained Gravity model. It shows following shortcomings:
a. If population is doubled, the trips produced will quadruple.
b. No constraint is taken in the analysis.

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c. Aggregation of zone is considered but characteristics of the zone are not considered.
Modification was made to the above unconstrained Gravity Model by introducing the
employment opportunities of the destination zone to make it synonymous with trip attractions.
So the modified unconstrained Gravity Model is represented as:

Further, the constrained gravity models were proposed so as to take into consideration the effect of
production or attraction zones. Accordingly, these were termed as Production constrained Gravity
model or attraction constrained gravity model. The formulation is given below:

Calibration Process:
1. Assume values for Bj and α, say Bj = 1.0 and α = 2. Now calculate Ai.
2. Calculate Bj for calculated Ai values and α.
3. Re-iterate till the new Ai and Bj values are very near to the Ai and Bj values of previous
iteration.
4. Use final values of Ai and Bj with value of α to compute Ti,p and Tj,a.
5. Form an O-D trip matrix.

Limitation:

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The limitation of procedure described is it requires that two criteria be satisfied by a base year
calibration. These two criteria are: agreement between observed and simulated trip length constraint
equation .A principal difficulty wit this calibration procedure is that the travel time factor function
and associated trip length frequency distribution are assumed to be constant for each zone of a study
area.

Opportunity Models

Opportunity model are based on the statistical theory of probability as the theoretical foundation.
The concept has been pioneered by Schneider and developed by subsequent studies. The two well
known models are:
(i) The intervening opportunities models ;
(ii) The competing opportunities model.

Intervening opportunities model

The basic hypothesis of the intervening opportunity model can be represented by the general
formula as given below;

Where ti-j= predicted number of trips between zone i and zone j

aj = total number of trip attractions at the destination zone j
vj = Number of intervening opportunities met upto the destination zone j k =
constant
It states that the number of trips from an origin zone to a destination zone is directly proportional to
the number of opportunities at the destination zone and inversely proportional to the number of
intervening opportunities. This is also known as ‘Stouffer Model’.

Schneider Modification
Modified hypothesis states that the probability that a trip will terminate in some destination point is
equal to the product of the probability that the destination met is acceptable and the probability that
an acceptable destination closer to the origin has not been found. This can be formulated for a small
destination zone ‘dv’ as:
Pr(dv) = [1 – Pr(v)] . l. dv
Where Pr(dv) = probability that a trip will terminate when dv destination opportunities are
considered
Pr(v) = Cumulative probability that a trip will terminate by the time ‘v’ possible destinations are
considered
v = Cumulative total of the destinations already considered
l = a constant probability of a destination being accepted it is considered The
integration of this will yield the following:
Pr(v) = [1 – ki . exp(-l.v)]
Where ki = a constant for zone ‘i’, which ensures that all the trips produced at zone ‘i’ are
distributed
In the intervening opportunities model, it is assumed that the trip interchange between an origin and
a destination zone is equal to the total trips emanating from the origin zone multiplied by the
probability that each trip will find an acceptable terminal at the destination. It

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is further assumed that the probability that a destination will be acceptable is determined by two
zonal characteristics, namely the size of the destination zone and the order in which it is encountered
as trips proceed from the origin. The probability function in above may then be expressed as the
difference between the probability that the trip origins at i will find a suitable terminal in one of the
destinations, ordered by closeness to i, up to and including j, and the probability that they will find a
suitable terminal in the destinations up to but excluding j. The following equation represents
mathematically this concept as:

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