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1. POPULATION FORECASTING
Design of water supply and sanitation scheme is based on the projected population of a
particular city, estimated for the design period. Any underestimated value will make system
inadequate for the purpose intended; similarly overestimated value will make it costly.
Change in the population of the city over the years occurs, and the system should be
designed taking into account of the population at the end of the design period.
Factors affecting changes in population are:
increase due to births
decrease due to deaths
increase/ decrease due to migration
increase due to annexation.
The present and past population record for the city can be obtained from the census
population records. After collecting these population figures, the population at the end of
design period is predicted using various methods as suitable for that city considering the
growth pattern followed by the city.
5.1 ARITHMETICAL INCREASE METHOD
This method is suitable for large and old city with considerable development. If it is used
for small, average or comparatively new cities, it will give low result than actual value. In
this method the average increase in population per decade is calculated from the past
census reports. This increase is added to the present population to find out the population of
the next decade. Thus, it is assumed that the population is increasing at constant rate.
Hence, dP/dt = C i.e. rate of change of population with respect to time is constant.
Therefore, Population after nth decade will be Pn= P + n.C
Where, Pn is the population after n decade and P is present population.
Example:1
Predict the population for the year 2021, 2031, and 2041 from the following population data.
Year 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011
Population 8,58,545 10,15,672 12,01,553 16,91,538, 20,77,820, 25,85,862
Solution
Year Population Increment
1961 858545 -
1971 1015672 157127
1981 1201553 185881
1991 1691538 489985
2001 2077820 386282
2011 2585862 508042
Average increment = 345463
Population in year 2021 is, P2021 = 2585862 + 345463 x 1 = 2931325
Similarly, P2031 = 2585862 + 345463 x 2 = 3276788
P2041 = 2585862 + 345463 x 3 = 3622251
5.2 GEOMETRICAL INCREASE METHOD
(OR GEOMETRICAL PROGRESSION METHOD)
In this method the percentage increase in population from decade to decade is assumed to
remain constant. Geometric mean increase is used to find out the future increment in
population. Since this method gives higher values and hence should be applied for a new
industrial town at the beginning of development for only few decades. The population at
the end of nth decade ‘Pn’ can be estimated as:
Pn = P (1+ IG/100) n
Where, IG = geometric mean (%)
P = Present population
N = no. of decades.
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Example: 2
Considering data given in example 1 predict the population for the year 2021, 2031, and
2041 using geometrical progression method.
Solution
Year Population Increment Geometrical increase
Rate of growth
1961 858545 -
1971 1015672 157127 (157127/858545)
= 0.18
1981 1201553 185881 (185881/1015672)
= 0.18
1991 1691538 489985 (489985/1201553)
= 0.40
2001 2077820 386282 (386282/1691538)
= 0.23
2011 2585862 508042 (508042/2077820)
= 0.24
Geometric mean IG = (0.18 x 0.18 x 0.40 x 0.23 x 0.24)1/4
= 0.235 i.e., 23.5%
Population in year 2021 is, P2021 = 2585862 x (1+ 0.235)1 = 3193540
Similarly for year 2031 and 2041 can be calculated by,
P2031 = 2585862 x (1+ 0.235)2 = 3944021
P2041 = 2585862 x (1+ 0.235)3 = 4870866
5.3 INCREMENTAL INCREASE METHOD
This method is modification of arithmetical increase method and it is suitable for an
average size town under normal condition where the growth rate is found to be in
increasing order. While adopting this method the increase in increment is considered for
calculating future population. The incremental increase is determined for each decade from
the past population and the average value is added to the present population along with the
average rate of increase.
Hence, population after nth decade is Pn = P+ n.X + {n (n+1)/2}.Y
Where, Pn = Population after nth decade
X = Average increase
Y = Incremental increase
Example : 3
Considering data given in example 1 predict the population for the year 2021, 2031, and
2041 using incremental increase method.
Year Population Increase (X) Incremental increase (Y)
1961 858545 - -
1971 1015672 157127 -
1981 1201553 185881 +28754
1991 1691538 489985 +304104
2001 2077820 386282 -103703
2011 2585862 508042 +121760
Total 1727317 350915
Average 345463 87729
Population in year 2021 is, P2021 = 2585862 + (345463 x 1) + {(1 (1+1))/2} x 87729
= 3019054
For year 2031 P2031 = 2585862 + (345463 x 2) + {((2 (2+1)/2)}x 87729
= 3539975
P2041 = 2585862 + (345463 x 3) + {((3 (3+1)/2)}x 87729
= 4148625
