[Link].

Sci (2020) 9(8): 3626-3639

International Journal of Current Microbiology and Applied Sciences

ISSN: 2319-7706 Volume 9 Number 8 (2020)
Journal homepage: [Link]

Original Research Article [Link]

Frequency Analysis for Prediction of Maximum Flood Discharge in

Mahanadi River Basin

B. Panigrahi1, Dipsika Paramjita2*, M. Giri3 and J. C. Paul1

1
Department of Soil and Water Conservation Engineering, College of Agricultural
Engineering and Technology, Odisha University of Agriculture & Tech., Bhubaneswar,
Odisha, India
2
KVK (OUAT), Sakhigopal, Puri, Odisha, India
3
Department of Soil and Water Conservation Engineering, College of Agricultural
Engineering and Technology, Odisha University of Agriculture & Tech., Bhubaneswar,
Odisha, India

*Corresponding author

ABSTRACT

Daily discharge data for 30 years of five gauging stations of Mahanadi river basin of
Odisha, India were collected and analysed for prediction of peak flood discharge. The five
Keywords gauging stations under the study are Kantamal, Kesinga, Salebhata, Sundargarh and
Tikarapara. Using the daily data, peak daily discharge data of ach station of each year were
Stage, Discharge, found out. The peak daily discharge data of various stations were analyzed by “FLOOD”
Flood, Probability software and the values at different probability of exceedences (PE) by 12 different
distribution probability distributions like Normal, Log-Normal (3p), Pearson, Log-Pearson, Weibull,
function,
Generalized Pareto, Extreme Value Type III, Gumble-maximum, Gumble-minimum,
Probability of
exceedence, Generalised Extreme Value, Exponential and Gamma were predicted. The best fit
FLOOD software distribution was decided by chi-square test as well as 2 other statistical tests i.e. root mean
square error (RMSE) and mean absolute relative error (MARE). Based on the lowest
Article Info values of statistical parameters of Chi square, RMSE and MARE, best fit probability
distributions of each station was decided. Generalised Pareto distribution for Kantamal and
Accepted: Kesinga, Log-Pearson in Salebhata and Sundargarh station and Generalised Extreme
26 July 2020 Value in Tikarapara station are found to be the best fit probability distribution. Values of
Available Online: discharge at different probability levels were predicted by the best fit distributions for each
10 August 2020 station. Values of peak discharge at 20% PE level as predicted by the best fit distributions
for Kantamal, Kesinga, Salebhata, Sundargarh and Tikarapara are 14964.51, 13286.95,
4171.32, 3106.23 and 28057.23 m3/s, respectively. These values may be considered for
design of hydraulic structures in respective stations.

Introduction a reliable estimation of peak discharge for a

given return period at the site of interest is
For proper planning and design of hydraulic necessary. The peak discharge can be
structures like dams, spillways, culverts, etc., effectively determined by fitting of
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probability distributions to the series of the basis of graphical and numerical

recorded annual maximum discharge data comparisons, it was found that the WAK,
through flood frequency analysis GNO and GEV models could provide the
(Vivekanandan, 2015). most accurate extreme rainfall estimates.
However, the GEV was recommended as the
A number of probability distributions are most suitable distribution due to its theoretical
commonly used in flood frequency analysis. basis for representing extreme – value process
According to the theory of probability and its relatively simple parameter estimation.
distributions, Exponential, Gamma, and
Pearson are called as gamma family of Topaloglu (2002) reported that the frequency
distributions whereas Extreme Value Type- analysis of extreme values of a sequence of
III, Generalized Extreme Value and hydrologic events has long been an essential
Generalized Pareto GPA are called as extreme part of the design of hydraulic structures. He
value family of distributions. Generally, made a statistical comparison of currently
method of moments (MoM) for its simplicity popular probability models such as Gumbel,
is used for determination of parameters of the log-logistic, Pearson Type III, Log-Pearson
probability distribution. In view of the above, Type III and Log-Normal (3p) distributions to
MoM is popularly used for determination of the series of annual instantaneous flood peaks
parameters of probability distributions. and annual peak daily precipitation for 13
Formal statistical procedures involving flow gauging and 55 precipitation gauging
goodness-of-fit is used to determine a stations in the Seyhan basin, respectively. The
particular distribution for a region or country. parameters of the distributions were estimated
For quantitative assessment on maximum by the methods of moments and probability
flood discharge within the recorded range, weighted moments. According to the
root mean square error and mean absolute evaluations of Chi-square tests, Gumbel for
error tests are applied (Vivekanandan, 2015). both flow and precipitation stations in the
Seyhan river basin were found to be the best
Tao et al., (2002) proposed a systematic models.
assessment procedure to compare the
performance of different probability Lee (2005) studies the rainfall distribution
distributions in order to identify an characteristics of Chia-Nan plain area by
appropriate model that could provide the most using different statistical analyses such as
accurate extreme rainfall estimates at a normal distribution, Log-Normal distribution,
particular site. Nine probability models such Extreme Value Type I distribution, Pearson
as Beta-K (BEK), Beta-P (BEP), Generalized Type III distribution, and Log-Pearson Type
Extreme Value (GEV), Generalized Normal III distribution. Results showed that the Log-
(GNO), Generalized Pareto (GPA), Gumbel Pearson Type III distribution performed the
(GUM), Log-Pearson Type III (LP3), Pearson best in probability distribution, occupying
Type III (PE3), and Wakeby (WAK) 50% of the total station number, followed by
distributions were compared for their the Log-Normal distribution and Pearson
descriptive and predictive abilities to Type III distribution, which accounts for 19%
represent the distribution of annual maximum and 18% of the total station numbers,
rainfalls. The suggested methodology was respectively.
applied to 5-minute and 1-hour annual
maximum rainfall series from a network of 20 Abida and Ellouze (2007) studied on regional
rain gauges in Southern Quebec region. On flood frequency distributions for different

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zones of Tunisia. The distributions which distributions. They selected 20 stations having
represent five of the most frequently used annual rainfall data of fifty-four years to
distributions in the analysis of hydrologic perform frequency analysis. They subjected
extreme variables are: (i) Generalized the predicted values for goodness of fit tests
Extreme Value (GEV), (ii) Pearson Type III such as chi-square, Fisher’s test, correlation
(P3), (iii) Generalized Logistic (GLO), (iv) coefficient and coefficient of determination.
Generalized Normal (GN), and (v) The Log-Pearson Type III distribution
Generalized Pareto (GPA) distributions. performed the best by occupying 50% of the
Northern Tunisia was shown to be total station number, while Pearson Type III
represented by the GEV distribution while the performed second best by occupying 40% of
GLO distribution gave the best fit in the total stations and lastly Log-Gumbel
central/southern Tunisia. occupied 10% of the total stations.

Adeboye and Alatise (2007) did the statistical Ewemoje and Ewemooje (2011) discussed
analysis of 18-year streamflow record of river Normal, Log-Normal, and log-Pearson type 3
Osun at Apoje gauging station, Nigeria. They distributions for modelling at-site annual
fitted the peak discharges to the three major maximum flood flows for Ona River under
statistical distributions namely normal, Log- Ogun-Osun river basin, Nigeria using the
Normal and Log-Pearson Type III while Hazen, Weibull and California plotting
seven plotting positions of Hazen, Weibull, positions. Comparing the probability
Blom, Cunnane, California, Gringorton and distributions, Log-Pearson Type III
Chegodajev were used in determining their distribution with the least absolute differences
probabilities of exceedance. Weibull’s for all the plotting positions was the best
plotting position combined with normal distribution among the three study location.
distribution gave the highest fit, most reliable
and accurate predictions of the flood in the Garba et al., (2013) performed frequency
study area having the coefficient of analysis by fitting probability distribution
determination R2 and root mean square error functions of Normal, Log-Normal, Log-
of 0.99 and 35.09 m3/s, respectively. Pearson type III and Gumbel to the discharge
variability of Kaduna river at Kaduna South
The generalized extreme value distribution Water Works. They used the Kolmongonov-
was reported to be the best distribution Smirnov (K-S) goodness-of-fit test to check
amongst all other distributions to forecast the whether the mean annual discharge variability
maximum flood discharge in most of the of the river basin is consistent with a regional
gauging stations in Bangladesh. Comparisons GEV distribution for the site. They observed
of distributions were based upon the root that at selected level of significance of α =
mean square deviation test, the probability 1%, α = 5% and α = 10%, all the four
plot correlation coefficient and L-moment theoretical distribution functions were
ratio diagrams (Karim and Chowdhury, acceptable.
2009).
Khan (2013) prepared frequency distribution
Olofintoye et al., (2009) studied the peak study on maximum monthly flood data in
daily rainfall distribution characteristics in Narmada river at Garudeshwar station. He
Nigeria by using different statistical analyses proposed the Normal, Log-Normal, Log-
such as Gumbel, Log-Gumbel, Normal, Log- Pearson type III and Gumbel extreme value
Normal, Pearson and Log-Pearson type I and tested together with their single

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distributions to identify the optimal model for of hydraulic structures for the project. He
maximum monthly flood analysis. The results adopted Gamma and Extreme value family of
indicated that Normal distribution was better probability distributions for flood frequency
than the other distributions in modelling analysis. The study showed that the Gamma
maximum monthly flood magnitude at distribution is found to be the best in the
Garudeshwar station in Narmada River. estimation of maximum flood discharge. A
Hence he derived frequency curve at number of other researchers have found the
Garudeshwar station using Normal Gamma and Extreme value family of
distribution method. probability distributions as the best for flood
frequency analysis for estimation of
Solomon and Prince (2013) carried out the maximum flood discharge for a given return
study on Osse river with flow measurements period (Khosravi et al., 2012; Garba et al.,
at Iguoriakhi and conducted flood frequency 2013; Khatua et al., 2014).
analysis of the river (Osse River) using
Gumbel’s distribution which is one of the In Odisha the Mahanadi is the largest river
popular probability distribution used to model with an extensive delta responsible for most
stream flow. They used Gumbel’s distribution of the devastating flood hazards in the coastal
to model the annual maximum discharge of zone. Over a period of 146 years between
the river for a period of 20 years (1989 to 1855 and 2000 there were 28 high flood
2008). Using this distribution at return periods years, 57 medium flood years and 48 low
of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200 and 400 years, flood years (Mishra, 2008). There is a need to
the expected estimated discharges obtained study the peak flood magnitude at different
were 2156.61, 2436.24, 2621.38, 2855.31, probability of exceedences by different
3028.85, 3201.11, 3372.74 and 3544.05m3/s, probability distribution functions.
respectively. These values of discharges are
useful for storm management in the study Materials and Methods
area.
Study Area
Deb and Choudhury (2015) studied frequency
distribution of maximum annual flood data in The present study is undertaken for the
Barak River at Annapurna Ghat (A.P.) station middle reach of the Mahanadi basin. The
using the Normal, Log-Normal, Log-Pearson Mahanadi basin extends over the states of
type III and Gumbell extreme value type I to Chhattisgarh and Odisha and comparatively
identify the optimal model for maximum smaller portions of Jharkhand, Maharashtra
annual flood analysis. The results indicated and Madhya Pradesh, draining an area of
that Normal distribution was better than the 1,41,589 [Link] which is nearly 4.3% of the
other distributions in modeling maximum total geographical area of the country. The
annual flood magnitude at A.P Ghat station in catchment area of Jharkhand, Madhya
Barak River. Pradesh, Chattisgarh, Maharashtra and Odisha
are 126, 107, 75229, 238 and 65889 sq. km,
Vivekanandan (2015) discussed how flood respectively.
frequency analysis by fitting of probability
distributions to the recorded annual maximum The geographical extent of the basin lies
discharge data required for estimation of between 80°28’ and 86°43’ east longitudes
maximum flood discharge for a given return and 19°8’ and 23°32’ north latitudes. The
period for planning, design and management basin has maximum length and width of 587

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km and 400 km, respectively. It is bounded by Kalahandi, Bolangir and Phulbhani. The Ib,
the Central India hills on the north, by the which is the third largest tributary of
Eastern Ghats on the south and east and by Mahanadi, drains Raigarh district of
the Maikala range on the west. Chhatisgarh and two districts of Odisha,
namely Sundergarh and Sambalpur. Below
The Mahanadi River System the dam, the Mahanadi turns south along a
tortuous course, piercing the Eastern Ghats
The river Mahanadi is one of the major inter- through a forest-clad gorge. Bending east, it
state east flowing rivers in peninsular India. It enters the Odisha plains near Cuttack and
originates at an elevation of about 442 m. enters the Bay of Bengal at False Point by
above mean sea level near Farsiya village in several channels.
Dhamtari district of Chattisgarh. During the
course of its traverse, it drains fairly large Numerous dams, irrigation projects, and
areas of Chhatisgarh and Odisha and barrages (barriers in the river to divert flow or
comparatively small area in the state of increase depth) are present in the Mahanadi
Jharkhand and Maharashtra. The total length river basin: the most prominent of which is
of the river from its origin to confluence of Hirakud dam. It is the longest earthen dam in
the Bay of Bengal is about 851 km, of which, the world; it remains the largest reservoir in
357 km is in Chattisgarh and the balance 494 Asia with a surface area of 746 sq. km and a
km in Odisha. During its traverse, a number live storage capacity of 5.37 x 109 m3.
of tributaries join the river on both the flanks. Approximately 65 percent of the basin is
There are 14 major tributaries of which 12 upstream from the dam. The average annual
numbers are joining upstream of Hirakud discharge of the river system is 1,895 m3/sec,
reservoir and 2 numbers downstream of it. On with a maximum of 6,352 m3/sec during the
the left bank, six tributaries namely the monsoon. Minimum discharge is 759 m3/s
Seonath, the Hasdeo, the Mand, the Ib, the and occurs during the months October.
Kelo and Borai drain into main channel
upstream of Hirakud reservoir. Fig. 1 Challenges faced in the basin
represents the view of the Mahanadi river
basin. Mahanadi is the largest river in Odisha with
an extensive delta responsible for most of the
The Mahanadi river basin has the outlet at devastating flood hazards in the coastal zone.
Mundali near Cuttack (Odisha). The drainage Because of a large number of distributaries,
system upstream of Hirakud reservoir is more the flood discharge at Naraj implies flood in
extensive on the left bank of Mahanadi as most of the distributaries remaining
compared to that on the right bank. The three downstream. Over a period of 146 years
major tributaries namely the Seonath and the between 1855 and 2000 there were 28 high
Ib on the Left Bank and the Tel on the Right flood years, 57 medium flood years and 48
Bank together constitute nearly 46.63% of the low flood years. The recurrence interval of a
total catchment area of the river Mahanadi. high flood in the Mahanadi is 5 years and that
The Seonath, which is the largest tributary of of a medium and low flood is 3 years. The
Mahanadi, drains three districts of Hirakud dam was made to alleviate the
Chhatisgarh namely Durg, Rajnandgaon and problem of flood and since then it is serving
Bilaspur. The Tel, which is the second largest the purpose to a large extent but possibly will
tributary of Mahanadi River drains four not in the coming future owing to the serious
districts of Odisha namely Koraput, problem of siltation which accounts for the

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reduction in its volumetric storage capacity. by different distributions is shown in Figs. 2

The inhabited inner basin Chhattisgarh plain to 6 for Kantamal, Kesinga, Salebhata,
and KBK (Koraput, Bolangir, Kalahandi Sundargarh and Tikarapara, respectively.
districts) in western Odisha at the boundary of
Chattisgarh and Odisha suffers frequent Testing the goodness of fit
droughts whereas the fertile deltaic area has
been wrecked by repeated floods (Mishra, The goodness of fit test for the probability
2008). distributions was done by root mean square
error (RMSE) and mean absolute error
Gauge-Discharge Stations under Study (MAE). These two errors were calculated for
each distribution.
The central as well as state governments carry
out hydrological observations. The Central Root mean square error
Water Commission maintains 20 gauge
discharge sites in the basin. At 14 of these The root-mean-square error (RMSE) is used
stations, sediment observations are also made. to calculate how much actual observed value
Number of flood forecasting stations is 4. In deviate from predicted value. RMSE is a good
the present study, five gauge-discharge measure of accuracy. The RMSE between the
stations of middle reach of Mahanadi river predicted and observed stage and discharge
basin is considered. These are Tikarpara, were determined using the equation given by
Sundergarh, Salebhata, Kesinga and (Laogue and Green, 1991; Panigrahi and
Kantamal. Panda, 2003) and is expressed as
9
Oi  Pi 
2
Statistical Analysis  n
RMSE = i 1
(1)
Table 1 represents variation of peak daily
discharge of different stations. Data of peak Where, RMSE is root mean square error
daily discharge of all these 5 stations were value, P is predicted value, O is observed
collected from the office of the Central water value, n is number of data point i.e. 9 and
Commission for 23 years (1990-91 to 2012- summation is done from i = 1 to 9 i.e. 10 to
13). 90% probability level.

Fitting the Probability Distribution The unit of RMSE for stage and discharge are
m and m3/s, respectively.
The peak daily discharge data of various
stations were analyzed by “FLOOD” software Mean absolute error
and the values at different probability of
In statistics, the mean absolute error (MAE) is
exceedences (PE) by different probability
a quantity used to measure how close the
distributions like Normal, Log-Normal (3p),
actual observed values are to the predicted
Pearson, Log-Pearson, Weibull, Generalized
values. The mean absolute error is given as
Pareto, Extreme Value Type III, Gumble-
(Panigrahi and Panigrahi, 2016):
maximum, Gumble-minimum, Generalised
Extreme Value, Exponential and Gamma
were predicted. The variation of peak daily (2)
discharge at different probability of Where, MAE is mean absolute error value, O
exceedence levels (ranging from 10 to 90%) is observed value, P is predicted value, n is

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number of data point i.e. 9 and summation is Results and Discussion

done from i = 1 to 9 i.e. 10 to 90% probability
level. Statistical analysis of daily discharge data

The unit of MAE for stage and discharge are The daily discharge data were collected from
m and m3/s, respectively. Central Water Commission, Bhubaneswar.
The peak daily stage and discharge of each
Weibull’s distribution year of each station were found out from
these data. Table 1 shows that amongst all the
Observed values of stage and discharge at 10 years Kantamal has the highest peak
to 90% PE levels were predicted by Weibull’s discharge of 20000.00 m3/s which was
distribution. obtained in 2008-2009, Kesinga has the
highest peak discharge of 21192.00 m3/s
Weibull’s distribution or simply called as which was obtained in 2006-2007, Salebhata
Weibull’s plotting position is expressed as has the highest peak discharge of 7916.00
(Panigrahi and Panigrahi, 2014): m3/s which was obtained in 2003-2004 and
Sundargarh has the highest peak discharge of
m 10404.00 m3/s which was obtained in 1998-
x 100
P= N  1 (3)
1999. Similarly Table 1 indicates that
amongst all the years, Tikarapara has the
highest peak discharge of 31510.00 m3/s
Where, P is probability of exceedence (PE) in which was obtained in 1995-1996.
percent, m is rank number when data are
arranged in descending order and N is total From Table 1 it can be concluded that the
number of data in the series. highest peak discharge for each station are
obtained in the same year. It varies from
The values of RMSE and MAE calculated for station to station like in Kantamal it is
each distribution for discharge of all the obtained in 2008-2009, Kesinga in 2006-
stations are presented in Table 2. 2007, Salebhata in 2003-2004, Sundargarh in
1998-1999 and Tikarapara in 1995- 1996,
Identification of best fit probability respectively. The peak daily discharge
distribution amongst all the years vary from 891.47 to
20000.00 m3/s for Kantamal, 600.00 to
Based on the lowest values of statistical 21192.00 m3/s for Kesinga, 114.00 to 7916.00
parameters of RMSE and MAE, best fit m3/s for Salebhata, 962.00 to 10404.00 m3/s
probability distributions of both stage and for Sundargarh and 156.90 to 33800.00 m3/s
discharge of each station were decided. for Tikarapara, respectively.
The identified best fit probability distributions Fitting the Probability Distribution
of discharge data of different stations are
presented in Table 3. The peak daily discharge data of various
stations were analyzed by “FLOOD” software
Using these best fit probability distributions, and the values at different probability of
values of discharge at different probability exceedences (PE) by different probability
levels (PE) ranging from 10 to 90% were distributions like Normal, Log-Normal (3p),
predicted and are shown in Table 4 for Pearson, Log-Pearson, Weibull, Generalized
discharge data.

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Pareto, Extreme Value Type III, Gumble- then the trend changed at 40% PE with the
maximum, Gumble-minimum, Generalised highest value by Generalised Pareto and so
Extreme Value, Exponential and Gamma on. Log-Pearson gives the lowest value for 10
were predicted. and 20% PE level continuously and after that
it has also changed trend for which at 30%
The variation of peak daily discharge at PE, the lowest was at Gumble-maximum.
different probability of exceedence levels (10
to 90%) by different probability distributions Testing the Goodness of Fit
like Normal, Log-Normal (3p), Pearson, Log-
Pearson, Weibull, Generalized Pareto, The goodness of fit test for the probability
Extreme Value Type III, Gumble-maximum, distributions was done by root mean square
Gumble-minimum, Generalised Extreme error (RMSE) and mean absolute error
Value, Exponential and Gamma of Kantamal (MAE). Table 2 represents the values of
station are shown in Fig. 2 for Kantamal. The RMSE and MAE of discharge by different
same are presented for Kesinga, Salebhata, probability distribution functions for
Sundargarh and Tikarapara in Figs. 3, 4, 5 and Kantamal, Kesinga, Salebhata, Sundargarh
6, respectively. The values of discharge are and Tikarapara station. Exponential
found gradually to decrease from 10% PE distribution for Kantamal, Gumble- minimum
level to 90% PE level for all distributions and for Kesinga, Salebhata and Sundargarh and
for all stations. The peak daily discharge Log-Pearson for Tikarapara show the highest
value is the highest at 10% PE level and the RMSE and MAE values for discharge.
lowest in 90% PE level for each station. Similarly Generalised Pareto for Kantamal
and Kesinga, Log-Pearson for Salebhata and
At 10% PE, the highest value of peak daily Sundargarh and Generalised Extreme Value
discharge for Kantamal is obtained by Log- for Tikarapara are found to have the lowest
Normal and the lowest value by Gumble- RMSE and MAE values for discharge.
minimum. However, the same distributions do
not give the highest values for other PE Identification of Best Fit Probability
levels. At 20% PE level, the highest and Distribution
lowest values are obtained by Generalised
Pareto and Gumble-maximum, respectively. Identification of best fit probability
For Kesinga at 10% PE, discharge value is the distribution is done from the values of RMSE
highest at Exponential and the lowest at and MAE. The lowest value of RMSE and
Gumble-minimum. Similarly at 10% PE for MAE of any station will be the best fit
Salebhata, Log-Normal and Gumble- probability distribution function for discharge
minimum give the highest and lowest value, in that station.
respectively and it also vary for other PE
levels. Sundargarh had the highest and lowest Table 3 shows the best fit probability
peak daily discharge at 10% PE level by distribution for discharge at various stations.
Exponential and Log-Normal, respectively From Table 3 it can be concluded that,
and whereas the highest and lowest values of Generalised Pareto in Kantamal and Kesinga
discharge at 20% PE level for Sundargarh was station, Log-Pearson in Salebhata and
given by Normal and Log-Pearson, Sundargarh station and Generalised Extreme
respectively. But for Tikarapara, Log-Normal Value in Tikarapara station are found to be
gives the highest peak daily discharge value the best fit probability distribution.
for 10, 20 and 30% PE level continuously and

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Table.1 Variation of peak daily discharge of different stations

Station Kantamal Kesinga Salebhata Sundargarh Tikarapara

Year Peak discharge Peak discharge Peak discharge Peak discharge Peak discharge
(m3/s) (m3/s) (m3/s) (m3/s) (m3/s)
1990-1991 13633.00 15000.00 1629.00 1350.00 6535.60
1991-1992 10560.00 9969.00 1259.90 4591.00 20067.83
1992-1993 16263.00 17568.00 3250.00 1639.00 30500.00
1993-1994 5400.00 2858.00 1341.00 962.00 31500.00
1994-1995 11659.00 9734.00 3577.20 5780.00 20435.00
1995-1996 8692.00 6608.00 2346.00 800.30 31510.00
1996-1997 1890.60 2926.00 398.30 6341.00 23121.00
1997-1998 11982.39 8143.00 2428.00 1306.00 11930.00
1998-1999 891.47 600.00 560.00 10404.00 23000.00
1999-2000 1974.00 1368.00 1935.00 2030.00 25000.00
2000-2001 3425.00 2452.00 114.00 2000.30 13249.00
2001-2002 12770.00 12822.00 3225.03 3200.00 4774.76
2002-2003 2900.00 1990.89 1545.40 1664.00 26700.00
2003-2004 12915.07 8908.43 7916.00 1150.00 12305.64
2004-2005 9007.81 4917.02 1146.58 1112.36 25062.00
2005-2006 11030.05 8120.83 1924.00 878.52 17744.45
2006-2007 17500.00 21192.00 4681.36 1356.20 19000.00
2007-2008 12856.50 10941.65 2419.44 1417.86 29000.00
2008-2009 20000.00 20124.00 3271.15 1346.18 15789.35
2009-2010 11797.73 4607.20 4330.68 1674.51 20565.49
2010-2011 10944.47 8764.63 787.80 1196.31 17750.50
2011-2012 3267.63 2900.00 4552.15 3098.79 13575.05
2012-2013 3466.36 2688.32 4880.27 1419.81 30400.00
Mean 9340.26 8052.30 2587.75 2466.01 21162.34

Table.2 Values of statistical parameters of discharge by different probability distribution

functions

Probability distribution function Station

Kantamal Kesinga Salebhata Sundargarh Tikarapara
RMSE MAE RMSE MAE RMSE MAE RMSE MAE RMSE MAE
Normal 0.071 0.058 0.065 0.056 0.051 0.042 0.149 0.124 0.039 0.033
Log-normal 0.105 0.084 0.058 0.042 0.058 0.050 0.094 0.075 0.122 0.108
Pearson 0.071 0.058 0.049 0.038 0.028 0.022 0.099 0.082 0.036 0.033
Log-pearson 0.081 0.067 0.047 0.035 0.027 0.067 0.057 0.048 0.217 0.163
Weibull 0.093 0.076 0.049 0.037 0.028 0.023 0.112 0.094 0.042 0.344
Generalised Pareto 0.061 0.050 0.037 0.031 0.034 0.028 0.069 0.056 0.100 0.084
Extreme Value Type-III 0.067 0.056 0.045 0.036 0.027 0.023 0.099 0.083 0.034 0.029
Gumble Maximum 0.108 0.089 0.054 0.040 0.031 0.024 0.123 0.105 0.072 0.062
Gumble Minimum 0.065 0.051 0.101 0.089 0.090 0.076 0.182 0.149 0.050 0.040
Generalised Extreme Value 0.070 0.057 0.050 0.039 0.029 0.022 0.108 0.093 0.029 0.025
Exponential 0.114 0.096 0.061 0.049 0.078 0.064 0.119 0.096 0.172 0.149
Gamma 0.110 0.091 0.057 0.045 0.035 0.028 0.110 0.093 0.061 0.052

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Table.3 Best fit distribution for discharge data at various stations

Station Best fit distribution

Kantamal Generalised Pareto
Kesinga Generalised Pareto
Salebhata Log Pearson
Sundargarh Log Pearson
Tikarapara Generalised Extreme Value

Table.4 Daily discharge (×10 m3/s) of various stations at different probability of exceedence (%)
by best fit distribution

Station Probability of exceedence, %

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Kantamal 17.02 14.96 12.99 11.07 9.19 7.34 5.52 3.71 1.93
Kesinga 16.96 13.29 10.66 8.55 6.75 5.17 3.75 2.45 1.25
Salebhata 5.21 4.17 3.42 2.81 2.29 1.82 1.38 0.96 0.53
Sundargarh 4.67 3.11 2.40 1.97 1.66 1.43 1.24 1.06 0.89
Tikarapara 31.04 28.06 25.65 23.45 21.30 19.07 16.62 13.68 9.51

Fig.1 View of the Mahanadi River basin

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Fig.2 Variation of peak daily discharge at different PE levels by different distributions

(Kantamal)

Fig.3 Variation of peak daily discharge at different PE levels by different distributions (Kesinga)

Fig.4 Variation of peak daily discharge at different PE levels by different distributions

(Salebhata)

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Fig.5 Variation of peak daily discharge at different PE levels by different distributions

(Sundargarh)

Sundargarh Discharge
6000

5000

4000
Discharge (m3 /s)

3000

2000

1000

0
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Probability of exceedence, %
Normal Log Normal Pareto Gamma Gumble Max Gumble Min
Pearson Log Pearson Weibull EV Type-3 Exponential GEV

Fig.6 Variation of peak daily discharge at different PE levels by different distributions

(Tikarapara)

Tikarapara Discharge
60000

50000

40000
Discharge (m3 /s)

30000

20000

10000

0
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Probability of exceedence, %
Normal Log Normal Pareto Gamma Gumble Max Gumble Min
Pearson Log Pearson Weibull EV Type-3 Exponential GEV

Table 4 shows the daily peak discharge of highest daily discharge value i.e. 31036.20,
various stations at different probability of 28057.23, 25648.95, 23449.86, 21297.56,
exceedence level by best fit distribution. 19068.68, 16615.73, 13675.27 and 9507.86
Sundargarh has the lowest daily discharge m3/s for 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, 80 and
value i.e. 4665.19, 3106.23, 2399.77, 90% PE level, respectively.
1968.08, 1664.27, 1429.99, 1235.99, 1063.90
and 894.37 m3/s for 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, The probability analysis at different PE levels
80 and 90% PE level, respectively which was of discharge helps to know the frequency and
represented by the data of Table 4. Data of magnitude of maximum flood discharge.
Table 4 also presents Tikarapara has the These data are helpful in design of the

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hydrologic structures like dam, culvert, 28057.23 m3/s, respectively. These values
spillway and bridge etc. Here 10 to 90% PE may be considered for design of hydraulic
levels of discharge are calculated for each structures in respective stations.
station. It is very safe to consider the 10% PE
level for designing the hydrological References
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How to cite this article:

Panigrahi, B., Dipsika Paramjita, M. Giri and Paul, J. C. 2020. Frequency Analysis for
Prediction of Maximum Flood Discharge in Mahanadi River Basin.
[Link]. 9(08): 3626-3639. doi: [Link]

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