Department Of Mechanical Engineering
ME3112: Metrology And Instrumentation
Submitted To: Dr. Deepak Lawrence Sir
Submitted By Pradeep Kumar
(B211144ME)
Batch: ME02
Group: G
Problem: 7
Given Parameters:
Sources of Uncertainity Type PDF PDF Parameters
Thermocouple temperature B Uniform Min: 650K; Range:20K
𝑇
Environmental Temperature B Triangular Mean: 300K;
𝑇 Standard uncertainity: 2K
Emissivity 𝜀 A Normal 0.44 uncertainity 0.08 with 99%
confidence
Constant 𝛼 B Uniform 52.75 𝑊𝑚 𝐾
Standard uncertainity: 1.2𝑊𝑚 𝐾
Stefan-Boltzman - - 5.67 ∗ 10 𝑊/𝑚 𝐾
Constant (𝜎) No uncertainity.
Theory:
The Monte Carlo methodology as presented by the GUM Supplement 1 involves
the propagation of the distributions of the input sources of uncertainty by using
the model to provide the distribution of the output.
According to the GUM Supplement 1, the following parameters should be reported
as results:
a) an estimate of the output quantity, taken as the average of the values generated for it;
b) the standard uncertainty, taken as the standard deviation of these generated values;
c) the chosen coverage probability (usually 95%);
d) the endpoints corresponding to the selected coverage interval.
General Steps for Monte Carlo Simulation
a) make 200000 (the number of Monte Carlo trials) draws from the PDF for each
input quantity Xi (or the joint PDF for X);
b) make 200000(Monte Carlo trials) corresponding evaluations of the model;
c) sort the resulting 200000 model values into non-decreasing order.
d) determine the coverage interval based on level of confidence required.
The steps (a) and (b) are exactly the same as described in the GUM.
Step (c) now involves the selection of the most appropriate probability density
functions (or PDFs) for each of the input quantities.
One should select a PDF that does not transmit more information than that
which is known. As an example, if the only information available on an input
source is a maximum and a minimum limits, a uniform PDF should be used.
After all the input PDFs have been defined, a number of Monte Carlo trials should
be selected – step (d).
Generally, the greater the number of simulation trials, the greater the
convergence of the results.
MATLAB Program for Monte Carlo Simulation:
alpha = 52.75;
% Constant in W/m^2K^4
alpha_uncertainty = 1.2;
%Standard uncertainty in alpha
sigma = 5.67*10^(-8);
% Stefan-Boltzmann constant in W/m^2K^4
emissivity_mean = 0.44;
emissivity_uncertainty = 0.08;
Tk_mean = 650;
% Mean temperature of thermocouple in Kelvin
Tk_range = 20;
% Range of thermocouple temperature in Kelvin
T0_mean = 300;
% Mean environmental temperature in Kelvin
T0_uncertainty = 2;
% Standard uncertainty in environmental temperature
num_trials = 2e5;
% Number of Monte Carlo trials
% Generate random samples for Tk, T0, and epsilon
Tk = Tk_mean - Tk_range/2 + Tk_range*rand(1, num_trials);
T0 = T0_mean + (2*rand(1, num_trials)-1)*T0_uncertainty;
epsilon = emissivity_mean + emissivity_uncertainty * randn(1,
num_trials);
% Calculate Tg for each sample
Tg = Tk + sigma * epsilon./ alpha .* (Tk.^4 - T0.^4);
% Calculate mean and standard deviation of Tg
Tg_mean = mean(Tg);
Tg_std = std(Tg);
% Use default normalization by N-1 for unbiased estimation of standard
deviation
%Plot histogram
histogram(Tg, 50, 'Normalization', 'pdf');
xlabel('Gas Temperature (K)');
ylabel('Probability Density');
title('PDF of Gas Temperature');
grid on;
%Print statistics
disp(['Estimated Gas Temperature (Tg): ', num2str(Tg_mean), ' K']);
disp(['Standard Uncertainty of Gas Temperature (σ_Tg): ',
num2str(Tg_std), ' K']);
%Calculate coverage interval based on 95% confidence interval
percentiles = prctile(Tg, [2.5, 97.5]);
Tg_min = percentiles(1);
Tg_max = percentiles(2);
disp(['Coverage Interval: [', num2str(Tg_min), ', ', num2str(Tg_max), ']
K']);
RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS:
The mean gas temperature was found to be (Best estimate): 730.6277K.
Standard deviation of Gas Temperature=Standard uncertainity of Gas
temperature = 17.0641K.
For lower value of Gas temperature : (2.5 percentile)
( 2.5*200000/100)th row value = 698.0401K for 95% confidence interval.
For Higher value of Gas temperature: (97.5 percentile)
(97.5*200000/100)th row value = 764.7718K for 95% confidence interval.
Coverage interval is (698.0401K to 764.7718K ) with 95% confidence
interval.
The graph plotted between Probability Density Function (PDF) for
resulting 𝑇 :-
The histogram visually represents the distribution of gas temperature values,
highlighting the likelihood of different temperature outcomes. The
incorporation of emissivity uncertainty further enhances the reliability of our
temperature estimation by accounting for potential variations in
thermocouple performance.
CONCLUSION:
By considering the uncertainties associated with various
parameters, we obtain a probabilistic estimation of gas
temperature, providing valuable insights for researchers and
engineers in the field of thermal measurement and monitoring. This
uncertainity is based on 200000 number of trials.
