Annika Ganzeveld, Johanna Moore, Alexandra Braverman, Carolyn

Moorman, Ben Rezaei, Kelly Campa, Anthony Carillo, and Nicholas Carl
Information Cutoff: October 25, 2024, 2:00 pm ET

The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad
that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers
events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime.
The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute
for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events.
Click here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. This map
is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
CTP-ISW defines the “Axis of Resistance” as the unconventional alliance that Iran has
cultivated in the Middle East since the Islamic Republic came to power in 1979. This
transnational coalition is comprised of state, semi-state, and non-state actors that
cooperate to secure their collective interests. Tehran considers itself to be both part of
the alliance and its leader. Iran furnishes these groups with varying levels of financial,
military, and political support in exchange for some degree of influence or control over
their actions. Some are traditional proxies that are highly responsive to Iranian
direction, while others are partners over which Iran exerts more limited influence.
Members of the Axis of Resistance are united by their grand strategic objectives, which
include eroding and eventually expelling American influence from the Middle East,
destroying the Israeli state, or both. Pursuing these objectives and supporting the Axis
of Resistance to those ends have become cornerstones of Iranian regional strategy.
We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in
Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and
forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva
Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in
these reports.

Note: CTP-ISW is tracking early reports that Israel has launched airstrikes in
Iran in retaliation for the Iranian ballistic missile attack on Israel on October 1.
CTP-ISW will continue to track these developments and report on them further
in the coming days.

1 Copyright © Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical
Threats Project, 2024
Four unspecified Iranian officials outlined to Western media how Tehran could
retaliate in response to an Israeli strike on Iran.[1] These comments were likely
an information operation meant to coerce Israel into limiting its strike on Iran.
The Iranian officials, which

2 Copyright © Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical
Threats Project, 2024
included two Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) officers, told the New York
Times that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei ordered the Iranian armed forces to develop
multiple retaliatory options.[2] The officials claimed that if Israel inflicts “major harm,”
such as by targeting energy and nuclear infrastructure or senior Iranian officials, the
retaliatory options would include firing as many as 1,000 ballistic missiles at Israel,
increasing Iranian-backed militia attacks across the Middle East, and disrupting
commercial traffic in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.[3] The threat against
global shipping comes as Iranian-backed Iraqi militias have threatened to start an
“energy war” in the Middle East.[4] The Iranian officials also claimed that Tehran could
refrain from retaliating if Israel only strikes military targets—rather than energy or
nuclear infrastructure or senior Iranian officials.[5]
US Air Force F-16s from the 480th Fighter Squadron arrived in the Middle East
on October 25.[6]
Two unspecified Hamas officials claimed that Hamas will replace its leader,
Yahya Sinwar, with a five-person committee based in Doha.[7] The committee
was reportedly formed after Israel killed Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail
Haniyeh in Tehran in July 2024. The committee was meant to facilitate decision-making
when Sinwar was out of contact in the Gaza Strip, which happened regularly. The
committee is led by Khalil al Hayya, who represents Hamas in the Gaza Strip on the
committee. The committee also includes Zaher Jabarin, who represents the West Bank,
Khaled Meshal, who represents the Palestinian diaspora, Mohammad Darwish, who is
the Hamas Shura Council head, and the secretary of the Hamas Political Bureau, whose
identity is unknown.
Hayya reiterated Hamas’ maximalist demands for a ceasefire-hostage agreement with
Israel on October 24, reflecting how Hamas's strategy is unlikely to change significantly
following the death of Sinwar.[8] Hayya discussed the maximalist demands in a meeting
with Egyptian intelligence director Hassan Mahmoud Rashad. The meeting comes as
Egypt proposed a new “small” ceasefire-hostage deal that would require Hamas to
release a “small” number of Israeli hostages for a “few” days ceasefire in the Gaza
Strip.[9]
Russia has provided the Houthis with targeting intelligence to support their
attacks targeting international shipping, according to the Wall Street Journal.
[10] The IRGC reportedly facilitated the transfer of the intelligence to the Houthis at
some unspecified point in 2024, helping the Houthis to target vessels that had
deactivated their radio signals. The US Maritime Administration in March 2024 advised
vessels to deactivate their radios when transiting near Yemen in order to protect
themselves from Houthi attacks.[11] Iran has separately tried to broker a deal between
Russia and the Houthis that would transfer Russian anti-ship cruise missiles to the
Houthis, further enabling attacks on international shipping.[12] There is no evidence
that Russia has sent missiles to the Houthis at this time, however, according to the Wall
Street Journal.[13]
3 Copyright © Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical
Threats Project, 2024
Lebanese Hezbollah has killed nine Israel Defense Forces (IDF) soldiers in
southern Lebanon since October 24.[14] The IDF 2nd Carmeli Brigade (Res.) (146th
Division) encountered Hezbollah militants during clearing operations in a forested area
in southwestern Lebanon on October 24.[15] The Hezbollah militants emerged from a
tunnel shaft and threw grenades at Israeli forces.[16] Hezbollah killed four reservist
soldiers in an exchange of fire and injured six others.[17] The IDF assessed that the
Hezbollah militants were also killed in the exchange.[18] The IDF has continued to
encounter and directly engage Hezbollah forces, typically in small groups of fighters,
during clearing

4 Copyright © Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical
Threats Project, 2024
operations.[19] Hezbollah also conducted an indirect fire attack and killed five
reservists from the 8th Armored Brigade (91st Division).[20] Israeli Army Radio
reported that Hezbollah launched a barrage of rockets targeting an area near a building
where 8th Armored Brigade soldiers were staying.[21] An IDF logistics convoy unit was
also present in the building.[22] The attack injured 24 other IDF soldiers.[23] Hezbollah
has primarily targeted Israeli forces in southern Lebanon with indirect fire.[24]
Key Takeaways:
 Iran: Four unspecified Iranian officials outlined to Western media how Tehran
could retaliate in response to an Israeli strike on Iran.
 Hamas: Two unspecified Hamas officials claimed that Hamas will replace its
leader, Yahya Sinwar, with a five-person committee based in Doha.
 Houthis: Russia has provided the Houthis with targeting intelligence to support
their attacks targeting international shipping, according to the Wall Street
Journal.

5 Copyright © Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical
Threats Project, 2024
Gaza Strip
Axis of Resistance objectives:
 Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to sustain clearing
operations in the Gaza Strip
 Reestablish Hamas as the governing authority in the Gaza Strip
The IDF 162nd Division has killed “dozens” of fighters, seized weapons, and
destroyed Palestinian militia infrastructure during clearing operations since
CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on October 24.[25] The IDF reported on October 25 that
the 162nd Division is operating in “the heart” of Jabalia refugee camp around
Kamal Adwan Hospital.[26] An Israeli military
6 Copyright © Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical
Threats Project, 2024
correspondent reported that Israeli forces have surrounded the hospital and have
begun to evacuate patients and detain fighters present.[27] The correspondent said that
around 600 Palestinians have been evacuated from the Kamal Adwan Hospital area.[28]
Geolocated footage posted on October 23 showed Israeli forces detaining Palestinian
men near the Khalifa bin Zayed al Nahyan Primary School in Jabalia refugee camp.[29]
Israeli forces also destroyed a vehicle-borne improvised explosive device and engaged
nearby fighters in an unspecified part of Jabalia.[30]
The IDF 252nd Division engaged Palestinian fighters and destroyed Hamas
infrastructure and rocket launch sites during clearing operations in the central
Gaza Strip on October 25.[31]
Palestinian media reported that Israeli forces conducted a limited raid in Khan
Younis on October 25.[32] A Palestinian journalist claimed that Israeli air elements
and artillery supported ground forces in al Manara, Qizan al Najjar, Maan, and Jurt al
Lut, east of Khan Younis. The journalist also claimed that 38 Palestinians died during
the Israeli raid.
The IDF 143rd Division continued clearing operations in Rafah on October 25.
[33] The IDF reported that Israeli forces destroyed militia targets and killed Palestinian
fighters through ground and air engagements.[34]
The IDF reported that its 143rd Division killed the Hamas Nukhba commander
in the Central Camps Brigade on October 23.[35] The IDF stated that the
commander participated in the murder and kidnapping of Israeli civilians in Migunit
near Reim on October 7.[36] He also directed attacks on Israeli forces during the
October 7 War. The IDF stated that the commander worked as a member of UNRWA
starting in July 2022.[37]

7 Copyright © Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical
Threats Project, 2024
8 Copyright © Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical
Threats Project, 2024
West Bank
Axis of Resistance objectives:
 Establish the West Bank as a viable front against Israel
Palestinian fighters have attacked Israeli forces in at least two locations in the
West Bank since CTP-ISW's data cutoff on October 24.[38] PIJ fired small arms
targeting IDF observation posts and “military targets” in the Mevo Dotan settlement in
the northern West Bank on October 24.[39] Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) separately
fired small arms targeting IDF military equipment at the Jalamah checkpoint on the
Israel-West Bank border on October 25.[40]
9 Copyright © Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical
Threats Project, 2024
Northern Israel and Lebanon
Axis of Resistance objectives:
 Prepare for an expanded and protracted conflict with Israel in the near term
 Expel the United States from Syria
The IDF 98th Division continued clearing operations in southeastern Lebanon.
[41] The 98th Division identified and killed a cell of Hezbollah fighters preparing to
ambush Israeli forces.[42] Israeli forces also destroyed a Kornet anti-tank missile
launcher that was ready to launch.[43]

10 Copyright © Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical
Threats Project, 2024
Hezbollah has claimed at least 12 attacks targeting Israeli forces in the 98th Division’s
area of operations in southern Lebanon since CTP-ISW's data cutoff on October 24.[44]
Hezbollah fired anti- tank guided missiles targeting Israeli personnel and armor on the
outskirts of Odaisseh and claimed to fire another ATGM targeting an IDF rescue force.
[45] Hezbollah claimed it fired at least five distinct barrages of rockets and ATGMs
targeting Israeli forces near Markaba.[46] Hezbollah also claimed to target an IDF unit
with unspecified weapons in Wazzani, east of Kfar Kila.[47]
The IDF 91st Division continued clearing operations in southeastern Lebanon.
The 91st Division directed an airstrike targeting killed the commander of the Aitaroun
area's Radwan unit, Abbas Adnan Musallam.[48] Musallam conducted numerous attacks
against Israeli forces.[49] Israeli Army Radio said that Musallam conducted attacks
targeting Malkia and Avivim in northern Israel and had planned a ground attack
targeting those communities.[50] Hezbollah claimed an Israeli tank attempted to
advance towards Houla on October 25.[51] Hezbollah claimed it confronted the tank
with anti-tank guided missiles, small arms, and rocket-propelled grenades.[52]
Hezbollah also claimed it fired rockets targeting Israeli forces on the outskirts of Houla.
[53]

11 Copyright © Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical
Threats Project, 2024
Israeli forces continued operations in Aitaroun on October 25. Hezbollah fired
rockets targeting Israeli soldiers east of Aitaroun on October 25.[54] Lebanese sources
reported that Hezbollah fighters engaged Israeli forces in unspecified clashes in
Aitaroun.[55]
The IDF 146th Division continued clearing operations in southwestern Lebanon
on October 25. Commercially available satellite imagery captured on October 25
showed flattened terrain and destroyed buildings in Boustane, a Lebanese border
village west of Marwahin, indicating that Israeli forces operating in the area. The 146th
Division attacked over 50 Hezbollah targets, including an anti-tank position and other
infrastructure.[56] The IDF 2nd Infantry Brigade (Res.) recently located two
underground Hezbollah combat compounds in a Lebanese village.[57] Israeli forces
12 Copyright © Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical
Threats Project, 2024
found and killed Hezbollah fighters inside one of the compounds.[58] The 2nd Infantry
Brigade also identified a large weapons depot in a "rugged mountainous area.”[59] The
IDF said a Radwan special operations

13 Copyright © Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical
Threats Project, 2024
force (SOF) company had intended to use this weapons cache to conduct a ground
attack into Israel.[60] Israeli forces used 11 trucks to transport Kornet anti-tank
missiles, launchers, grenades, rifles, and other combat equipment found in the Radwan
depot to Israel.[61]
Hezbollah continued to target Israeli forces in southwestern Lebanon. Hezbollah
claimed it fired anti- tank guided missiles and Israeli personnel and armor on the
outskirts of Marwahin.[62] Hezbollah claimed it killed or injured an IDF tank’s crew.
[63]
UNIFIL reported that Israeli soldiers fired at UN peacekeepers at an
observation post near Dahyra, southwestern Lebanon, on October 22.[64]
UNIFIL said that the peacekeepers observed Israeli forces conducting clearing
operations in houses near a permanent UN observation post.[65] Israeli forces fired
small arms at the post “upon realizing they were being observed.”[66] The UNIFIL
peacekeepers withdrew from the post as a result.[67] UNIFIL reminded the IDF to
ensure the safety of UN personnel.[68]
UNIFIL reported that UNIFIL personnel and infrastructure have been impacted
by fire of “unknown origin” in at least three incidents in southern Lebanon
since October 23.[69] UNIFIL said in an October 25 statement that two UNIFIL
medical evacuation teams met in Yaroun to transfer a patient on October 23. Fire of
unknown origin impacted one of their vehicles and “immobilized it.” UNIFIL said that a
shell or rocket hit and damaged a UNIFIL medical facility in Beit Lif on October 23.
UNIFIL also said that two shells or rockets damaged living accommodations at a
UNIFIL position in Kfarchouba.

14 Copyright © Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical
Threats Project, 2024
15 Copyright © Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical
Threats Project, 2024
The IDF continued its air campaign to degrade Hezbollah’s capabilities and
infrastructure on October 25. The IDF Air Force struck over 200 Hezbollah targets
across Lebanon.[70] The IDF Air Force struck multiple weapons manufacturing sites,
the headquarters of Hezbollah’s intelligence division, and an air defense system in
Beirut.[71] The IDF issued warnings to residents of Burj al Barajneh and Hadath to
evacuate at least 500 meters from Hezbollah infrastructure prior to attacking the area.
[72] Local Lebanese sources reported Israeli airstrikes in Burj al Barajneh, Hadath, and
Haret Hreik.[73]
The IDF continued to target Hezbollah arms smuggling infrastructure on the
Syria- Lebanon border on October 25. The IDF Air Force struck Hezbollah military
infrastructure used for arms smuggling at the Jousieh border crossing between
16 Copyright © Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical
Threats Project, 2024
Lebanon and Homs Province, Syria, on October 25.[74] Lebanese and UN officials, as
well as Syrian media, reported that recent Israeli strikes

17 Copyright © Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical
Threats Project, 2024
on the Jousieh, al Qaa, and Masnaa border crossings led to the crossings closing.[75]
The Arida border crossing in northwestern Lebanon now remains the only border
crossing open to Lebanese civilians fleeing to Syria.[76]
An Israeli airstrike killed three journalists from Hezbollah-affiliated outlets in
southeastern Lebanon on October 25.[77] The strike targeted a guesthouse in the
town of Hasbaya, killing two journalists from Hezbollah media channel al Manar and
Hezbollah-affiliated al Mayadeen.[78] Al Manar operates as the media arm of Hezbollah
and is designated by the US Department of Treasury as a Specially Designated Global
Terrorist Entity.[79] The IDF investigated the strike and determined the guesthouse
was a ”Hezbollah military infrastructure.”[80]

18 Copyright © Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical
Threats Project, 2024
This map illustrates individual Israeli air and artillery strikes based on local Lebanese
reporting. This map depicts strikes reported from 2:00pm ET on October 24 to 2:00pm
ET on October 25. This map is not exhaustive. CTP-ISW cannot independently verify the
locations of Israeli strikes.

Hezbollah has conducted at least sixteen attacks into Israeli since CTP-ISW's
last data cutoff on October 24.[81] Hezbollah fired one-way attack drones targeting
the headquarters of the IDF 36th and 210th divisions at Philon base, east of Safed, on
October 25.[82] The 36th and 210th Divisions are currently deployed in southern
Lebanon.[83] The IDF intercepted at least one drone before it entered Israeli airspace
on October 25.[84] This attack may be a part of a broader Hezbollah campaign to target
19 Copyright © Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical
Threats Project, 2024
IDF rear positions in northern Israel and “support lines” to defend against Israel’s

20 Copyright © Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical
Threats Project, 2024
ground operation in southern Lebanon.[85] CTP-ISW assessed that Hezbollah’s attack
on a training camp for the IDF 1st Infantry Brigade south of Haifa on October 13 likely
also fell within this framework.[86] Hezbollah separately killed two Israeli civilians and
injured at least 25 other civilians in a rocket attack targeting Karmiel on October 25.
[87] Hezbollah conducted two attacks targeting civilian sites in Safed.[88] Hezbollah
continued to target Israeli forces along the Lebanon-Israel border in five separate
incidents.[89]

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Lebanese Caretaker Prime

22 Copyright © Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical
Threats Project, 2024
Iran and the Axis of Resistance
The Islamic Resistance in Iraq--a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias--has
claimed four attacks targeting Israel since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on
October 24. The claims include the following:
 A drone attack targeting an unspecified “vital target” in southern Israel.[92]
 Two drone attacks targeting unspecified “vital target[s]” in Eilat.[93]
 A drone attack targeting an unspecified “vital target” in northern Israel.[94]
The IDF detected a drone over the Red Sea on October 24 that was approaching Israel
from the east.[95] The drone fell in an open area outside Israeli territory. The IDF said
that an interceptor targeting the drone fell in an open area near Eilat due to a technical
malfunction, causing no injuries or damage.[96] The IDF separately intercepted a drone
in the southern Golan Heights that crossed into Israeli territory from Syria on October
25.[97]
Local Syrian media reported that 25 Houthi militants met with the Iranian
Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) commander in eastern Syria Hajj
Askar in late September 2024.[98] The militants then traveled with “local elements”
to Daraa, Rif Dimashq, and Quneitra provinces in southern Syria. The militants
reportedly have experience in drone and missile operations.[99] Israeli media has
observed an increase in Houthi militants in Syria over the past two months.[100]
US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced that it destroyed 15 drones, land
attack cruise missiles, and surface-to-air missiles fired by the Houthis and
other Iranian- backed militants from October 18-24.[101] CENTCOM did not
specify where it destroyed these weapons. CENTCOM determined that these weapons
posed a significant risk to the United States, its partners, and civilians in the area.[102]
Iranian Artesh Air Force Commander Brigadier General Hamid Vahedi stated
that Iran and Pakistan agreed to increase drone and cyber cooperation.[103]
Vahedi’s statement follows an October 24 meeting with Pakistani Chief of Army Staff
General Asim Munir in Pakistan.[104] Vahedi stated that Iran and Pakistan can
exchange experiences in the field of drone training and emphasized that Pakistan has
“taken good measures in the cyber field.”[105]
An unidentified individual shot and killed the local Friday prayer leader in
Kazeroun, Fars Province, Iran, on October 25.[106] Iranian officials emphasized
that the attack was not an act of terrorism and that Iranian authorities are investigating
the attack.[107]

23 Copyright © Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical
Threats Project, 2024
24 Copyright © Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical
Threats Project, 2024
[1][Link]
[2] [Link]
[3] [Link]
[4] [Link]
[5] [Link]
[6]
[Link]
%7Ctwcamp%5E serp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
[7] [Link]
committee-not- new-chief-fd230274?refsec=topics_afp-news
[8] [Link] dot com/liveblog_entry/senior-hamas-official-says-terror-group-
told-egypt- its-ready-to-stop-fighting-if-israel-commits-to-truce/
[9] [Link]
[10] [Link]
on-global- shipping-eabc2c2b
[11] [Link]
strait-gulf- aden-indian-ocean-somali-basin-arabian-sea
[12] [Link]
russian- missiles-yemens-houthis-sources-say-2024-09-24/
[13] [Link]
on-global- shipping-eabc2c2b
[14] [Link] [Link]
[15] [Link]
[16] [Link]
[17] [Link]
[18] [Link]
[19] [Link]
[20] [Link]
[21] [Link]
[22][Link]
[23][Link]

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[24][Link]
[25][Link]
[26][Link] ;
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; [Link]
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[47][Link]
[48][Link]

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[76] [Link]
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[77] [Link]
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[Link]
[94][Link]
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30 Copyright © Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical
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[97][Link]
[98] [Link] dot com/[Link]/ar/news/2024/10/24/12149
[99][Link] dot net/en/for-the-first-time-houthi-militia-arrives-in-deir-ezzor/
[100] [Link] dot [Link]/app/uploads/2024/09/E_197_24.pdf;
[Link] dot tv/en/news/israel-at-war/artc-houthis-deploying-forces-in-
syria-prelude- to-new-escalation
[101] [Link]
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View/Article/3945704/us-central-command-weekly-update/
[102] [Link]
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View/Article/3945704/us-central-command-weekly-update/
[103] [Link] dot ir/fa/news/700695
[104] [Link] dot ir/fa/news/4363571
[105] [Link] dot ir/fa/news/700695
[106] [Link] dot ir/fa/news/700782/
[107] [Link] dot
ir/fa/news/827928 ; [Link] dot
ir/fa/news/700782/

31 Copyright © Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical
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