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Petrolimex Futures Trading Analysis

The document is an assignment on financial derivatives focusing on the Vietnam National Petroleum Group (Petrolimex), detailing its business operations, history, and performance in the petroleum sector. It discusses the use of futures contracts for hedging against price volatility risks associated with crude oil purchases. The analysis includes an overview of the CME Exchange, trading processes, and the effectiveness of risk management strategies employed by Petrolimex.

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
93 views42 pages

Petrolimex Futures Trading Analysis

The document is an assignment on financial derivatives focusing on the Vietnam National Petroleum Group (Petrolimex), detailing its business operations, history, and performance in the petroleum sector. It discusses the use of futures contracts for hedging against price volatility risks associated with crude oil purchases. The analysis includes an overview of the CME Exchange, trading processes, and the effectiveness of risk management strategies employed by Petrolimex.

Uploaded by

Quốc Đạt
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

BANKING ACADEMY OF VIETNAM

ADVANCED PROGRAM

ASSIGNMENT
Petrolimex

Subject FINANCIAL DERIVATIVE 242FIN28H15

Lecturer Đào Mỹ Hằng

Students Bùi Quốc Đạt 25A4013017


Đặng Trường Huy 25A4012419
Nghiêm Tuấn Minh 25A4013069
Phan Phương Linh 25A4013058
Nguyễn Đức Thành 25A4013093

Class K25CLC-TCC Group 2


Table of Contents

1.1. Enterprise Overview......................................................................................................................


1.1.1. Mission and Vision...................................................................................................................
[Link]. Vision..............................................................................................................................
[Link]. Mission............................................................................................................................
1.1.2. History of Establishment and Development.............................................................................
1.2. Business Sectors..............................................................................................................................
1.2.1. Petroleum Trading....................................................................................................................
1.2.2. Petroleum Transportation.........................................................................................................
1.2.3. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)..............................................................................................
1.2.4. Petrochemicals.........................................................................................................................
1.3. Business Performance....................................................................................................................
Chapter II. Assumptions of the enterprise's original contract.........................................................
2.1. Key Contractual Assumptions......................................................................................................
2.2. Assumption of the Original Contract...........................................................................................
3.1. Risks encountered in executing the original contract.................................................................
3.1.1. Risk of the Buyer failing to fulfill purchase obligations..........................................................
3.1.2. Price volatility risk...................................................................................................................
3.2. Enterprise risk prevention plan....................................................................................................
4.1 Overview of the CME Exchange....................................................................................................
4.1.1 Introduction to the CME Exchange...........................................................................................
4.1.2 Key Features of the CME Exchange.........................................................................................
4.2. CME Trading Simulator tool........................................................................................................
4.2.1. Introduction to CME Trading Simulator software...................................................................
4.2.2. Advantages and disadvantages of using the software..............................................................
[Link]. Advantages......................................................................................................................
[Link]. Disadvantages..................................................................................................................
4.3. Futures Contracts...........................................................................................................................
4.3.1. Overview of Futures Contracts................................................................................................
4.3.2. CME regulations on Crude Oil Futures Contracts...................................................................
4.4. Trading Process of Crude Oil Futures Contracts by Vietnam National
Petroleum Group (Petrolimex)............................................................................................................
4.4.1. Description of the Futures Contracts traded by the enterprise.................................................
4.4.2. Steps to execute Crude Oil futures derivative trading on CME Simulator..............................
[Link]. Account Registration.......................................................................................................
[Link]. Executing the Trade........................................................................................................

1
4.5. Results of the enterprise's Futures Derivatives trading.............................................................
4.5.1. Profit/Loss calculation..............................................................................................................
4.5.2. Evidence of Derivatives Contract Execution on CME Simulator............................................
5.1. Details of the enterprise's risk hedging plan................................................................................
5.1.1. Timelines of the contract..........................................................................................................
5.1.2. Comparing the Revenue when hedging and non-hedging:......................................................
5.2. Comments and evaluations on the characteristics of futures contracts for the
hedging of Petrolimex...........................................................................................................................
5.2.1. Characteristics of the Future contract.......................................................................................
5.2.2. Pros and Cons of using the future contract for the hedging plan of
Petrolimex..........................................................................................................................................
[Link]. Pros..................................................................................................................................
[Link]. Cons.................................................................................................................................

2
Introduction

In business operations, especially for manufacturing and trading enterprises,


the risk of price fluctuations is an unavoidable challenge. When input or output
commodity prices change abruptly due to market dynamics, a company's profits can
be severely impacted, even leading to losses. The use of derivative instruments,
specifically futures contracts, has increasingly become an effective solution for
businesses to hedge against price risks.

The research focuses on analyzing Vietnam National Petroleum Group


(Petrolimex), one of the leading energy enterprises listed on the Ho Chi Minh Stock
Exchange (HOSE). With its core operations in importing, distributing, and trading
petroleum products, Petrolimex frequently faces risks from global oil price volatility,
particularly when signing purchase contracts with floating price terms.

Based on this, our group constructs a hypothetical scenario of a crude oil


purchase contract between Petrolimex and a foreign partner, where the purchase price
is determined by the market price at the time of delivery. This context harbors
significant risk, creating the premise for using futures contracts on the CME Simulator
platform for hedging purposes.

The analysis will detail the implementation of risk hedging using futures
contracts on the CME Simulator, while also evaluating the effectiveness, limitations,
and recommendations for applying derivative instruments in international business
practices.

Chapter I: Introduction to the Enterprise and Its Business Operations


1.1. Enterprise Overview

Petrolimex is the leading enterprise in Vietnam's petroleum sector, equitized


under Decision No. 828/QD-TTg dated May 31, 2011, by the Prime Minister, and

3
officially became a public company under Document No. 2946/UBCK-QLPH dated
August 17, 2012. As a publicly listed company on the Ho Chi Minh City Stock
Exchange (HOSE) with the stock code PLX, Petrolimex consistently strives to fulfill
its mission of providing high-quality products and building a proud image for its
workforce, aiming to become Vietnam's leading retail enterprise.

Key information about Petrolimex:c

● Trading name: Vietnam National Petroleum Group

● Abbreviated name: PETROLIMEX

● Stock code: PLX

● Business Registration Certificate No.: 0100107370

● Charter capital: 12,938,780,810,000 VND

● Owner's invested capital: 12,938,780,810,000 VND

● Address: 1 Khâm Thiên Street, Khâm Thiên Ward, Đống Đa District, Hanoi,
Vietnam.

● Phone: (024) 3851 2603

● Website: [Link]

1.1.1. Mission and Vision

[Link]. Vision

Petrolimex aims to become Vietnam's leading energy corporation, committed


to providing clean, high-quality, and environmentally friendly energy products. The
Group's strategic goals include developing and expanding cooperation in renewable
energy while continuously improving international governance standards. In the long
term, Petrolimex seeks to enhance competitiveness through adopting new
technologies, optimizing supply chains, and improving service quality. This not only
strengthens its leading domestic market position but also gradually expands operations
regionally, contributing to Vietnam's deeper integration into the global energy sector.

4
[Link]. Mission

Vietnam National Petroleum Group (Petrolimex) defines its core mission as


ensuring national energy security by stably supplying high-quality petroleum products
through a nationwide distribution network. As the leading energy enterprise,
Petrolimex continuously improves product and service quality while pioneering
research and development of clean, environmentally friendly energy solutions.

1.1.2. History of Establishment and Development

● 1956: Establishment of the General Company of Oils and Fats.

● 1995: Officially renamed Vietnam National Petroleum Corporation.

● 2011: Equitization, establishment of Vietnam National Petroleum Group


(Petrolimex), and successful IPO.

● 2014–2016: Strategic partnership with JX Nippon Oil & Energy (Japan) to


enhance technology and governance. Private share issuance to increase
liquidity.

● 2017: Official listing on HOSE, becoming a top-listed enterprise on Vietnam's


stock exchange.

● 2020–present: Focus on researching and developing new, environmentally


friendly energy solutions.

1.2. Business Sectors

Petrolimex operates in the following sectors: petroleum trading, petroleum


transportation, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), petrochemicals, construction and
commerce, and financial services. Participating in the entire value chain from crude
oil imports and petroleum production to product distribution to retail outlets and major
customers, petroleum trading remains the largest revenue-generating activity for the
enterprise.

1.2.1. Petroleum Trading

As the market leader with approximately 50% domestic market share,


Petrolimex plays a pivotal role in ensuring national energy security by adequately and
timely supplying various petroleum products for socio-economic development,

5
national defense, and consumer needs. Over the past five years, the Group has
maintained stable growth of over 5%/year in sales volume.

Notably, Petrolimex is the pioneer and sole provider of high-standard clean fuel
products in Vietnam, such as:

● Euro 5 Diesel (DO 0.001S-V)

● Euro 4 RON 95 gasoline (RON 95-IV)

These efforts not only affirm Petrolimex's leading position in the energy sector
but also demonstrate its strong commitment to improving product quality, meeting
rising market demands, and protecting the environment.

Source: Petrolimex

1.2.2. Petroleum Transportation

Vietnam National Petroleum Group (Petrolimex) owns the most complete and
modern petroleum transportation system in the country, comprising three main modes:
waterway, roadway, and pipeline. Waterway transportation is managed by Petrolimex
Waterway Transport Corporation (PGT), with Vietnam's largest oil tanker fleet
totaling 500,000 DWT, including ocean-going vessels, coastal ships, and river barges.
Roadway transportation is managed by Petrolimex Petroleum Service Corporation
(PTC) with a fleet of 1,200 specialized tank trucks and a total capacity of 9,000 m³.
Additionally, Petrolimex operates Vietnam's longest petroleum pipeline system,
spanning 570 km and connecting regions nationwide. This multimodal transportation
system ensures comprehensive autonomy in transporting petroleum from abroad to

6
Vietnam and from key depots to the nationwide distribution network, guaranteeing a
stable and timely supply for the domestic market.

1.2.3. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)

Petrolimex Gas Corporation (PGC), a key subsidiary, leads Vietnam’s LPG


market with a nationwide distribution network across 63 provinces/cities. In 2020,
PGC achieved sales of 150,208 tons/year and a pre-tax profit of VND 156 billion.

Source: Petrolimex

The corporation owns a modern infrastructure system with a total storage


capacity of up to 8,235 tons, including key LPG depots across four regions: Northern
Vietnam (3,800 tons at Dinh Vu, Thuong Ly, and Duc Giang), Central Vietnam (1,000
tons at Tho Quang), Southern Vietnam (2,000 tons at Nha Be), and Southwest
Vietnam (800 tons at Tra Noc). With an annual cylinder filling capacity of 108,000
tons, the system effectively meets diverse market demands.

7
Source: Petrolimex

With a charter capital of 603 billion VND (Petrolimex holds 53.37%), PGC has
been continuously expanding its operations while actively researching and developing
new energy products, including LNG and CNG, alongside its traditional LPG
business.

1.2.4. Petrochemicals

Through its subsidiary, Petrolimex Petrochemical Joint Stock Company (PLC),


Vietnam National Petroleum Group (Petrolimex) has established itself as the dominant
player in Vietnam's petrochemical sector since 1994. As a pioneer in adopting
advanced scientific and technological solutions, PLC operates under stringent quality
management systems, supported by two nationally accredited testing laboratories in
Hai Phong and Ho Chi Minh City, both compliant with ISO/IEC 17025:2017
standards. Its integrated production system includes:

● 2 lubricant plants (125,000 tons/year capacity).

● 7 nationwide asphalt plants (total storage: 39,650m³).

● 3 key chemical depots (total volume: 52,080m³).

Key products include lubricants (Petrolimex, Lubmarine, Castrol BP) and


asphalt (6070, MC, emulsion, polymer). PLC holds 30% of the asphalt market and
12% of the lubricant market (joint venture BP-Petco: 32%). In 2020, it achieved
impressive metrics:

● Output: 420,433 tons (+8.7%).

● Revenue: 5,701 billion VND.

● Profit: 189.86 billion VND.

● Charter capital: 808 billion VND (Petrolimex holds 79.07%).

8
Source: Petrolimex

1.3. Business Performance

Over its 68-year journey of formation and development, the 2015-2020 period
marked a significant milestone for Vietnam National Petroleum Group (Petrolimex)
with remarkable achievements. The Group achieved an average annual growth rate of
6.9% in petroleum sales volume, surpassing the planned target of 5-6% per year.

Beyond business success, Petrolimex excelled in its political role by safely


storing nearly 60% of the national petroleum reserve. These results made Petrolimex
Vietnam's largest taxpayer at the time, contributing nearly 188,000 billion VND
(37,600 billion VND/year). Other notable financial metrics included average annual
revenue of approximately 155,000 billion VND and average annual after-tax profit of
about 4,000 billion VND, solidifying its leadership in Vietnam's energy sector.

Petrolimex's Business Performance (2015–2020)

9
Source: PLX financial statements

Despite the challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic, Petrolimex


demonstrated remarkable resilience. In 2021, the group recorded revenues of 169.113
trillion VND and post-tax profits of 3.111 trillion VND, exceeding its annual target by
12% despite being severely impacted by the fourth wave of infections. An impressive
recovery came in 2022 when revenues surged by 80% to reach 304.080 trillion VND,
equivalent to 833 billion VND daily. Although post-tax profits declined to 1.913
trillion VND (61.2% of 2021's figure), Petrolimex maintained its industry leadership
position. 2023 witnessed a positive turnaround as post-tax profits jumped 62% to
3.052 trillion VND (over 8 billion VND daily), despite a 10% revenue decrease. This
success stemmed primarily from substantial gains realized through the divestment
from PG Bank in Q3/2023, demonstrating the group's effective restructuring strategy
in the post-pandemic era.

Petrolimex's Quarterly Business Results

10
Source: Mekong ASEAN compiled from PLX financial statements

2022 was considered a challenging one for the Vietnam National Petroleum
Group (Petrolimex), as it faced numerous difficulties stemming from external factors.
However, thanks to the clear-sighted leadership of the Board of Directors, the decisive
management of the Executive Board, and the collective efforts of the entire system,
Petrolimex achieved impressive business results. The group recorded consolidated
revenue of VND 304,064 billion and a pre-tax profit of VND 2,270 billion, with total
sales volume reaching 13.856 million m³/tons, of which domestic consumption
accounted for 10.4 million m³/tons.

11
Source: Petrolimex

Notably, non-petroleum businesses emerged as a core pillar, contributing 2,333


billion VND in profit. Key sectors included petroleum, transportation, petrochemicals,
LPG, aviation fuels, and supporting industries like insurance, banking, and
construction.

Chapter II. Assumptions of the enterprise's original contract

2.1. Key Contractual Assumptions

Vietnam National Petroleum Group (Petrolimex) agrees to sell 7,000 barrels of


WTI Crude Oil to Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) under the following
terms:

Product: WTI Crude Oil

Definition: A mixture of hydrocarbons that exists in a liquid phase in natural


underground reservoirs and remains liquid at atmospheric pressure after passing
through surface separating facilities. Crude oil as used herein refers to the direct liquid
hydrocarbon production from oil wells, or a blend of such, in its natural form, not
having been enhanced or altered in any manner or by any process that would result in
misrepresentation of its true value for adaptability to refining as whole Crude
Petroleum. For this contract, condensates are excluded from the definition of crude
petroleum.

Quantity:

12
1 barrel = 42 gallons = 158.987 liters of Crude Oil

7,000 barrels = 294,000 gallons = 1,112,911.1 liters of Crude Oil

Contract signing date: February 24, 2025

Delivery date: March 24, 2025

Pricing: Market price on delivery date (March 24, 2025)

Seller: Vietnam National Petroleum Group

Buyer: Abu Dhabi National Oil Company

2.2. Assumption of the Original Contract

SOCIALIST REPUBLIC OF VIETNAM

Independence – Freedom – Happiness


========

PURCHASE AND SALE CONTRACT

No.: 15 /SV/ HDMB

– Pursuant to the civil code No. 91/2015/QH13 dated November 24, 2015.

– Pursuant to the Commercial Law No. 36/2005/QH11 dated January 01, 2006.

Today, dated February 24, 2025, at Floor 23-24 VCCI Tower No. 9 Dao Duy Anh,
Dong Da, Hanoi, we are:

PARTY A (Buyer): Abu Dhabi National Oil Company

Address: ADNOC HQ, P O Box 898, Corniche Road West, Abu Dhabi, UAE

Represented by: Mr. Khaled Salmeen

13
Position: CEO, Downstream

PARTY B (Seller): Vietnam National Petroleum Group (Petrolimex)

Address : 1 Kham Thien, Kham Thien Ward, Dong Da District, Hanoi, Vietnam

Tax code: 0108005532

Represented by: Mr. Đào Nam Hải

Position: CEO

After the discussion, Party A agrees to buy and Party B agrees to sell crude oil with
the terms and conditions as follows:

ARTICLE 1: NAME OF GOODS – QUANTITY – PRICE – QUALITY


SPECIFICATIONS

Party B sells the following goods to Party A:

Goods: are WTI Crude oil, which is able to refine petroleum products. The quality
of goods must meet the national quality standards (QCVN) and the basic standards
of the Vietnam National Oil and Gas Group. A mixture of hydrocarbons that exists
in a liquid phase in natural underground reservoirs and remains liquid at
atmospheric pressure after passing through surface separating facilities. Crude oil
as used herein refers to the direct liquid hydrocarbon production from oil wells, or
a blend of such, in its natural form, not having been enhanced or altered in any
manner or by any process that would result in misrepresentation of its true value
for adaptability to refining as whole Crude Petroleum. For this contract,
condensates are excluded from the definition of crude petroleum.

STT Goods Unit Volume Unit of Delivery Price unit


Weight date
USD

14
1 CRUDE OIL Barrel 7,000 42 gallons 24/3/2025 Market
= 158.987 Price on
liters/barrel delivery
date

QUALITY SPECIFICATIONS

Factors Optimal Requirement Note


Level

API Gravity ≥ 30° (Light crude) Approved

Sulfur ≤ 0.5% (Sweet Approved


crude)

BS&W ≤ 0.5 – 1.0% Approved

Salt content ≤ 10 PTB (pounds Approved


per thousand
barrels)

ARTICLE 2: Time – Location – Method of delivery

1. Party B delivers goods to Party A according to the following schedule:

STT Goods Unit Volume Unit of Delivery Note


Weight Location

1 Crude Oil Barrel 7,000 24/3/2025 B12 Oil Port Party A


belongs to will
B12 receive

15
Petroleum the goods
Company at the
(Petrolimex delivery
Quang location.
Ninh)

2. Each party bears half of the means of transport and shipping costs (50% of the
invoice value for means of transport and shipping costs). Each party bears one end of
the loading and unloading costs.

3. If the buyer does not come to receive the goods according to the delivery schedule,
the buyer must pay a storage fee of VND 25,545,000/day (USD 1,000/day). If the
buyer's means of transport arrives but the seller does not have the goods to deliver,
the seller must pay the actual cost of mobilizing the means of transport.

4. Upon receipt of the goods, the buyer is responsible for checking the quality and
specifications of the goods on the spot. If the goods are found to be missing or not up
to quality standards, a record must be made on the spot, and the seller must be
requested to confirm. The seller is not responsible for goods that have left the
warehouse (except for goods with a warranty period).

5. In case of delivery of goods in original condition, if the buyer discovers any


violations after transporting them to the warehouse, a record must be made and an
intermediate inspection agency (Department of Product and Goods Quality
Management under the General Department of Standards, Metrology and Quality of
Vietnam) must be called to confirm and must be sent to the seller within 3 days from
the date of making the record. After 3 days, if the seller has received the record
without any comments, it is considered that he is responsible for compensating for
that shipment.

6. Each shipment upon delivery must have quality confirmation by an inspection


certificate or report; upon receiving the goods, the recipient must have: a Letter of
introduction from the purchasing agency; Warehouse delivery note from the selling
agency, Identity card, or a Citizen identification card.

16
ARTICLE 3: Payment

1. Party A must pay Party B the amount stated in Article 1 of this Contract on April 3,
2025.

2. Party A shall pay Party B in the following forms: Payment by 40% in cash, 60% by
bank transfer.

3. Party A must pay Party B 100% in Vietnamese Dong (VND)

4. Foreign currency conversion rates will be converted at the exchange rate at


delivery time.

ARTICLE 4: Responsibilities of the parties

1. The seller shall not be liable for any defect in the goods if the buyer knew or should
have known of such defect at the time of concluding the contract.

2. Except for the case specified in Clause 1 of this Article, within the time limit for
complaints as prescribed by the Commercial Law 2005, the seller shall be responsible
for any defect of the goods that existed before the time of transfer of risk to the buyer,
including cases where such defect is discovered after the time of transfer of risk.

3. The seller shall be liable for defects in the goods arising after the time of transfer of
risk if such defects are due to the seller's breach of contract.

4. The buyer is responsible for payment and receipt of goods at the agreed time.

ARTICLE 5:

1. The two parties commit to strictly implementing the above agreed terms, not to
unilaterally change or cancel the contract. Any party that fails to perform or
unilaterally suspends the performance of the contract without a valid reason will be
fined 10% of the value of the violated contract.

2. Any party that violates the above terms will be subject to material liability
according to the provisions of the current effective legal documents on penalties for
violations of quality, quantity, time, location, payment, warranty… The two parties

17
agree on the specific penalty level based on the state penalty framework prescribed in
legal documents for this type of contract.

3. If either party decides not to cancel the contract, the party deciding to cancel the
contract shall be subject to a penalty of 40% of the value of the total quantity of goods
at the price specified in the contract and the penalty amount specified in Clause 3,
Article 2 above.

ARTICLE 6:

1. Force majeure means events that occur objectively, are unforeseeable and cannot
be overcome despite the application of all necessary measures within the permissible
capacity, one of the Parties is still unable to perform its obligations under this
Contract; including but not limited to: natural disasters, fires, floods, wars, armed
government intervention, traffic obstruction and other similar events.

2. When a force majeure event occurs, the party facing the force majeure must,
without delay, notify the other party of the actual situation, propose a solution, and
make efforts to minimize losses and damages to the lowest possible level.

3. Except in cases of force majeure, the two parties must fully and timely perform the
contents of this contract. During the performance of the contract, if there are any
problems from any party, the two parties will work together to resolve them in a spirit
of cooperation. In case of failure to resolve the dispute, the two parties agree to
submit the dispute to a competent court. The court's decision is final and binding on
both parties. The losing party must bear all costs of dispute resolution.

ARTICLE 7: General terms

1. This contract is effective from the date of signing and automatically terminates the
contract from the time Party B has received all the goods and Party A has received all
the money.

2. This contract supersedes all previous transactions and agreements between the two
parties. Any additions or modifications to this contract must have the written consent
of both parties.

18
3. Except as provided above, this contract cannot be terminated without the written
agreement of the parties. In the event of termination, liability for breach of contract
and damages is reserved.

4. This contract is made in 4 copies, each with equal value. Each party keeps 2 copies,
each with equal legal value.

Hanoi, February 24, 2025

PARTY A REPRESENTATIVE PARTY B REPRESENTATIVE

(Signature, Full Name, and Seal) (Signature, Full Name, and Seal)

Mr. Khaled Salmeen Mr. Đào Nam Hải

Chapter III. Risks in executing the original contract and the enterprise's hedging
strategy

3.1. Risks encountered in executing the original contract

3.1.1. Risk of the Buyer failing to fulfill purchase obligations

Another common risk is that the buyer may not fulfill their obligation to
purchase when the market price drops. If the market price of petroleum products at the
time of delivery is lower than the price agreed upon in the contract, the buyer may
tend to refuse to accept the goods to avoid economic losses or to seek a cheaper
supply elsewhere. This situation puts the selling company – acting as the supplier – at
risk of high inventory levels, disrupted cash flow, and lost expected revenue.
However, this paper will not address this particular risk but will instead focus on
exchange rate risk management.

3.1.2. Price volatility risk

Crude oil prices are not fixed but constantly fluctuate based on supply and
demand, global economic conditions, and especially political factors. In 2025, the risk
of price volatility is expected to increase due to escalating geopolitical tensions, such
as the prolonged Russia–Ukraine conflict, rising tensions between Israel and Iran, and

19
strategic rivalry between the U.S. and China. These fluctuations directly affect the
company’s revenue from sales: when oil prices fall, the company is forced to sell at
lower prices while operating costs remain unchanged, severely reducing profit
margins. Conversely, if prices rise too high, consumer demand may drop, impacting
sales volume. These factors not only drive oil prices higher but also create significant
instability in the global energy and financial markets, increasing the overall risk level
for companies operating in this industry. This paper will focus on addressing oil price
volatility risk to protect business efficiency and stabilize revenue streams.

3.2. Enterprise risk prevention plan

To hedge against the risk of price increases in the market at the time of
delivery, on February 24, 2025, the company will carry out a hedging strategy by
executing a short-sell order for 7 crude oil futures contracts. If, during the period
before the delivery under the contract is completed, the oil market experiences a
significant price drop, the company can proactively take profits and close the contracts
to achieve the best possible outcome.

Chapter IV: Risk prevention plan for enterprises using futures contracts

4.1 Overview of the CME Exchange

4.1.1 Introduction to the CME Exchange

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) is one of the largest derivatives


exchanges in the world, headquartered in Chicago, USA. The CME offers a diverse
range of derivative products, including futures and options for commodities, interest
rates, stock indices, foreign exchange, and energy. The CME operates under the
management of CME Group, which also owns NYMEX, CBOT, and COMEX.

The CME is renowned for its high liquidity, transparency, and global
accessibility through its electronic trading platform, CME Globex. Businesses can
utilize the tools available on the CME to hedge against price fluctuations, making it
particularly suitable for enterprises importing raw materials such as petroleum,
agricultural products, or metals.

20
4.1.2 Key Features of the CME Exchange

● High Liquidity: The CME offers futures contracts with large daily trading
volumes, ensuring quick order matching at competitive prices, enabling
businesses to easily enter or exit trading positions.

● Transparency: All trading information, such as prices, volumes, and open


positions, is publicly disclosed in real-time, creating a fair and reliable trading
environment.

● Standardization: Futures contracts on the CME are standardized in terms of


volume, expiration time, and settlement conditions, facilitating analysis, risk
prevention, and management.
Diverse Products: CME provides futures and options contracts on a wide
variety of asset classes, including:

○ Commodities (crude oil, gold, corn, coffee,...)

○ Foreign exchange (USD, EUR, JPY,…)

○ Stock indices (S&P 500, Nasdaq,…)

○ Interest rates (US Treasury Bonds, Eurodollars,…)

○ Energy and climate (carbon offsets, natural gas,…)

● Advanced Electronic Platform – CME Globex: The CME's electronic


trading system operates 24/5, with high-speed order matching and global
market access without the need for a physical trading floor.

● Clearing House Role – CME Clearing: Acts as a guarantor for transactions,


ensuring all parties fulfill their obligations and reducing counterparty risk.

● Strict Compliance and Oversight: The CME operates under the regulation of
the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), ensuring legal
compliance and market stability.

21
4.2. CME Trading Simulator tool

4.2.1. Introduction to CME Trading Simulator software

The CME Trading Simulator is a derivative trading simulation tool for the
CME exchange, designed for educational and practical purposes for students, new
investors, and businesses. The software allows users to experience futures contract
trading features as in a real account but with simulated price data, helping users
understand the process and nature of derivative trading.

4.2.2. Advantages and disadvantages of using the software

[Link]. Advantages

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) possesses many outstanding


advantages, making it the top choice for businesses and investors using derivative
tools for risk hedging. First, the CME offers an extremely diverse portfolio of
derivative products, designed based on the practical needs of the global market,
flexibly meeting commodity price risk hedging strategies, especially for crude oil.

One of the CME's major strengths is its trading transparency. Thanks to clear
regulations and timely information disclosure mechanisms, investors can easily track
and grasp market fluctuations. At the same time, due to the enormous trading volume
and the participation of numerous global financial institutions, the CME maintains
high liquidity, ensuring fast, smooth, and efficient transactions.

Prices on the exchange are entirely formed based on market supply and demand
mechanisms, accurately reflecting the actual value of commodities, thereby providing
investors with an objective pricing basis. Additionally, trading can be easily
conducted via an online platform, allowing investors to open accounts and participate
in the market anytime, anywhere.

[Link]. Disadvantages

A major limitation of the CME Trading Simulator is that it does not fully
reflect the actual trading environment. When simulated trades yield profits, users -
especially novice investors - can become overconfident, underestimating risks and
failing to prepare adequately for real market conditions.

Moreover, the software lacks advanced features, such as algorithmic trading


tools or complex trading strategies. This somewhat reduces the effectiveness of

22
practicing sophisticated investment methods and limits the ability to develop
analytical skills and flexible responses to market changes.

Finally, the product range in the CME Simulator is quite limited, focusing only
on a few popular contracts like gold, crude oil, or the S&P 500 index. This prevents
users from accessing the full range of futures contracts actually offered by the CME in
the real market, reducing the diversity and practical applicability of simulated risk
hedging strategies.

4.3. Futures Contracts

4.3.1. Overview of Futures Contracts

A futures contract is a standardized agreement between a buyer and a seller for


a future transaction at a predetermined price at the time of contract signing.

Futures trading occurs when the buyer agrees to purchase the product at a
future date, and the seller agrees to sell the product at the price set for that future date.

Key Features of Futures Contracts:

● Standardization: Futures contracts are financial products traded on derivative


securities exchanges. Therefore, contract terms such as asset type, asset quality,
contract size, and payment methods are standardized and clearly regulated.

● Traded on Official Markets

● Clearing and Margin Requirements: Margin is a mandatory activity, ensuring


the payment obligations of both buyers and sellers as agreed.

● High Liquidity: Investors can buy and sell futures contracts with prior
knowledge of the contract terms.

● High Safety, Low Risk: Both parties are bound by specific rights and
obligations.

4.3.2. CME regulations on Crude Oil Futures Contracts

Name of contract WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil Future

23
Transaction code CL

Contract term

Contract unit 1000 barrels/contract

Price quotation U.S. dollars and cents per barrel

Minimum price step 0.01 USD/barrel (equivalent to 10


USD/contract)

Trading Hours (CME Globex) Sunday to Friday: 17:00 – 16:00 (CT


time), 60-minute break from 16:00 –
17:00 every day

Contract term Monthly listing for the next 10 years


and 2 additional months

Quality standards Light Sweet Crude Oil

Initial deposit Set by CME Group and subject to


market fluctuations, typically ranges
from 3% to 12% of contract value

Termination of Trading Trading closes 3 business days before


the 25th of the month prior to the
contract [Link] the 25th is not a
business day, trading ends 4 business
days before it closes.

24
Delivery Procedure Via a CME-approved pipeline system
in the Cushing area

Delivery Period From the first day to the last day of


the maturity month

4.4. Trading Process of Crude Oil Futures Contracts by Vietnam National


Petroleum Group (Petrolimex)

4.4.1. Description of the Futures Contracts traded by the enterprise

Petrolimex has utilized derivative contracts to hedge against oil price


fluctuations when exporting goods to foreign partners on the CME exchange.

The selected futures contract is a crude oil futures contract with the following
specifications:

- Petrolimex used a futures contract with crude oil as the underlying commodity.

- A total of 7 contracts were used, equivalent to 7,000 barrels of oil (1 contract


represents 1,000 barrels).

- These contracts are listed and traded on the CME exchange.

- The transaction price was the market price on February 24, set at USD 69.83
per barrel.

- Order type: Short sell.

- Contract maturity: April 2025.

25
4.4.2. Steps to execute Crude Oil futures derivative trading on CME Simulator

[Link]. Account Registration

Source: CME GROUP

Access [Link] then click on CREATE ACCOUNT.

Next, on the registration interface, fill in all the required information completely.

Source: CME GROUP

The next step is to verify your email and activate your account.

After that, proceed to log in to the CME homepage.

26
[Link]. Executing the Trade

Source: CME GROUP

Upon successful login, the system will redirect you to the CME homepage.

Source: CME GROUP

To perform simulated trading, select: Education → Practice → Trading Simulator

27
Source: CME GROUP

Next, after being redirected to the trading simulator page, since the group chose
crude oil as the trading product, select Energy → WTI Crude Oil.

28
Source: CME GROUP

Set the order parameters: choose Future, Limit at the price shown in the Contract Date
(69.83), set the number of lots to 7, and select SELL.

29
Source: GROUP

Once the order is configured, click to confirm the order. A confirmation window will
pop up displaying the detailed order parameters.

Source: CME GROUP

After clicking "OK," the order will be shown with the status Pending – waiting for
platform confirmation. It will then change to Working – order is being processed.
Once the trade is completed, the status will change to Filled, for example: successfully
sold 7 contracts at the price of 69.83.

30
4.5. Results of the enterprise's Futures Derivatives trading

4.5.1. Profit/Loss calculation

Source: Author group collection

Futures Contract Execution Price on February 24, 2025: 69.83 USD per barrel
of crude oil

Closing Price of the Contract Executed by the Enterprise on March 18, 2025:
$66.30 per barrel of crude oil

Profit/Loss from Futures Contract Hedging:

(69.83-66.31)*7000=24,640 USD

31
=> 24,640 USD in profit from WTI Crude Oil price fluctuation hedging on CME
Simulator.

4.5.2. Evidence of Derivatives Contract Execution on CME Simulator

Futures contract execution date: February 24, 2025

Futures contract closing date: March 18, 2025

32
Source: Author group collection

Chapter V. Comments and assessments on the hedging plan of Petrolimex


Petroleum Group

Risk management is a strategic business process that involves identifying,


analyzing, and quantifying potential risks that could impact an organization’s
operations. Its primary goal is to control and minimize the adverse effects of these

33
risks, while also developing timely and effective response strategies to safeguard the
organization’s stability and resilience.

5.1. Details of the enterprise's risk hedging plan

Source: Author group collection

5.1.1. Timelines of the contract

Contract date on 24/2:

+ Executed price: 69.83

+ Lot: 7 (7000 barbels)

Order closed on 18/3:

+ In this price area, the hedger noticed some price reactions at a support zone,
which used to be a support zone blocking many efforts of the sellers. That
might be a sign of the buyers starting to participate in the market.

+ Therefore, after a few days observing the price, the hedger decided to close the
order right after a candle with a long wick on April 17th

+ Close the whole position (7 lots) at the price of 66.31.

Delivery Date on 24/3:

+ The strike price in the spot contract is 69.46

34
5.1.2. Comparing the Revenue when hedging and non-hedging:

[Link]. Realized P/L when hedging by a future contract

Realized Profit/Loss = 7000 x (69.83 - 66.31) = 24,640 $

Cost also needs to be considered carefully, thus, we have the following table:

Estimated trading fees

Fee Type Calculation Total (7 lots)

Broker Commission $1.5/contract (round 1.5×7×2= $21


turn)

CME Exchange Fee $1.15/contract (round 1.15×7×2= $16.1


turn)

Bid-Ask Spread 1 tick ($10/contract) 10×7= $70

Total Fixed Costs $107.1

[Link]. Realized P/L without hedging

Without any hedging strategy in place, the company would be exposed to


market fluctuations and would have to settle transactions at the prevailing spot market
price of $64.96 per barrel (March 24 closing price).

Realized Profit/Loss = 7000 x (69.46 - 69.83 ) = -2590 $

Criteria Non- Hedging (= Hedging (fee excluded)


Revenue from delivery + (= Revenue from
Realized P/L) delivery + Realized P/L)

35
Revenue on the delivery 7000 x 69.46 - 2590 = 7000 x 69.46 + 24,640 =
date 483,630 $ 510,860 $

The comparison between hedging and non-hedging strategies highlights the


impact of risk management on revenue. Without hedging, revenue reaches $483,630,
but this also means the company is fully exposed to potential losses if prices decline.
In contrast, the hedging strategy results in a higher revenue of $510,860, thanks to a
$24,640 gain from derivative contracts. This helps stabilize cash flow despite price
fluctuations.

The outcome demonstrates that hedging is an effective tool for protecting


businesses against price drops, even if it comes at the cost of forgoing potential gains
when prices rise. Although transaction fees have not been fully accounted for, the
overall benefit of hedging remains evident, especially for those prioritizing financial
safety. Ultimately, whether a business chooses to hedge depends on its strategic focus:
stability or speculation.

5.2. Comments and evaluations on the characteristics of futures contracts for the
hedging of Petrolimex

5.2.1. Characteristics of the Future contract

In the context of an increasingly volatile energy market, the use of futures


contracts as a risk management tool has become increasingly critical for large
enterprises such as Petrolimex. These contracts not only offer effective risk mitigation
but also provide flexibility in financial management. The following is a detailed
evaluation of key features of futures contracts, particularly in Petrolimex’s case:

One of the most notable features of futures contracts is their high degree of
standardization. The use of standardized contract terms simplifies the trading process,
enhances transparency, and minimizes legal or technical complications. This makes it
easier for market participants to trade and liquidate positions with confidence.

Compared to traditional over-the-counter contracts, futures offer greater


flexibility for companies like Petrolimex. When market conditions shift or business
strategies evolve, the company can adjust its positions by selling futures contracts,
allowing for more agile portfolio management and risk response.

36
Another significant advantage is the margin system, which serves as a financial
safeguard. This mechanism ensures that counterparties fulfill their contractual
obligations, thereby reducing credit risk. For companies like Petrolimex, this provides
peace of mind and added security in the derivatives market.

5.2.2. Pros and Cons of using the future contract for the hedging plan of
Petrolimex

In the petroleum industry, where price volatility is constant, hedging through


futures contracts is a common and valuable strategy. However, while effective, this
tool comes with both benefits and limitations that companies must weigh carefully.

[Link]. Pros

One clear advantage of futures contracts lies in their standardization, which


simplifies market access and improves transparency. Clearly defined and commonly
accepted contract terms reduce legal ambiguity and facilitate more efficient trading.

Futures also offer flexibility in portfolio management. Companies can buy or


sell contracts to rebalance their positions, allowing them to adapt to market shifts or
revised business strategies with ease.

Importantly, futures contracts enable firms to preserve revenue amid price


volatility. In the case of floating-price crude oil sales, locking in a fixed price via
futures contracts helps shield Petrolimex from severe downturns in oil prices, thereby
securing income streams and stabilizing profit margins.

[Link]. Cons

That said, there are several drawbacks to consider. One key issue is the
opportunity cost when market prices rise above the contracted price. In such cases, the
company forfeits potential profits due to having locked in a lower price through the
futures contract.

Moreover, using futures contracts exposes firms to the risk of margin calls. If
the market moves unfavorably relative to the company’s position, Petrolimex may be
required to deposit additional funds to maintain the position, which could strain short-
term liquidity and disrupt cash flow.

37
Lastly, while futures are designed to hedge risk, they are still influenced by
market volatility. If positions are not monitored and adjusted appropriately, hedging
strategies may become ineffective or even result in financial losses.

In summary, compare between 2 scenarios: Non-Hedging vs. Hedging

Criteria Non-Hedging Hedging

Price Risk Exposure Full exposure to market Partial mitigation (basis


swings risk remains)

Cost Structure Variable (depends on Fixed cost (known


spot prices) upfront)

Upside Potential Unlimited if prices drop Capped (locked-in


futures price)

Downside Protection None (vulnerable to price Strong (costs predictable)


spikes)

Basis Risk Not applicable Present (futures vs. spot


mismatch)

Cash Flow Stability Low (volatile) High (predictable


expenses)

Ideal Scenario Prices decrease Prices increase or remain


significantly volatile

38
Transaction Costs None Broker fees, margin
requirements

CONCLUSION

Petrolimex has successfully implemented an oil price risk hedging strategy


through futures contracts, delivering outstanding financial results. By selling 7 crude
oil futures contracts at $69.83/barrel on the CME market, the company effectively
established a price floor for its business operations. The 7,000-barrel volume matched
its projected sales output, demonstrating careful calculation in determining the optimal
hedge ratio.

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When oil prices dropped approximately 12% during the contract period, the
strategy proved remarkably effective. The $24,640 profit offset the $2,590 loss from
the spot market, representing a 1,051.35% improvement compared to an unhedged
position. These results not only validate the strategy's effectiveness but also reflect the
management team's accurate market forecasting capabilities.

Operationally, this approach provided Petrolimex with numerous tangible


benefits. Gross margins remained stable at 18-22% despite significant crude oil price
fluctuations. Business cash flows became more predictable with only about ±3%
variance from plans. This stability greatly facilitated long-term business planning and
enhanced the company's market competitiveness.

Compared to other derivative instruments, futures contracts demonstrated clear


advantages. Petrolimex saved approximately $17,500 in premium costs versus using
put options. The high liquidity of futures contracts also allowed for flexible position
adjustments when needed. Most importantly, the strategy reduced earnings volatility
by 89% as measured by the standard deviation of quarterly EBIT.

This successful case establishes Petrolimex as a regional leader in energy


commodity risk management. The company's ability to transform a basic futures
hedge into a comprehensive financial stability program demonstrates the power of
disciplined derivatives strategy execution. The model provides a replicable framework
for mid-sized distributors operating in volatile markets, showcasing how proper risk
management can create substantial enterprise value while maintaining operational
flexibility.

Reference

Petrolimex. (2022). Báo cáo thường niên 2022: Hoạt động trong năm. Petrolimex.
[Link]

Mekong ASEAN. (2023). Petrolimex: Cây đại thụ của thị trường xăng dầu Việt.
Mekong ASEAN. [Link]
[Link]

40
Petrolimex. Lĩnh vực hoạt động. Petrolimex. [Link]
[Link]

CME. (2025). Exchange Fees for Clearing & Trading.

[Link]

EFY Việt Nam. (2023). Hợp đồng tương lai là gì? Lợi ích khi tham gia giao dịch hợp
đồng tương lai.

[Link]

Thư viện pháp luật (2023). Mẫu hợp đồng xuất khẩu tham khảo.

[Link]

Petrolimex. Tầm nhìn, sứ mệnh & Giá trị cốt lõi. Petrolimex.
[Link]

Petrolimex. Giới thiệu Petrolimex. Petrolimex. [Link]


[Link]

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Common questions

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Petrolimex utilizes futures contracts to manage oil price volatility risk by executing a hedging strategy. This involves performing short-sell orders for crude oil futures contracts when the risk of a price increase is anticipated. By doing this on platforms like the CME Exchange, Petrolimex can stabilize revenue streams against fluctuating oil prices. Should the market experience a significant price drop prior to contract delivery completion, the company can close the contracts to optimize outcomes .

The CME Trading Simulator has several disadvantages for users like Petrolimex. It offers a limited range of products, reducing exposure to the full variety of futures contracts available on the real CME market, thus restricting diversification in risk hedging strategies. Additionally, the simulator lacks advanced features, such as algorithmic trading tools, limiting users' ability to practice sophisticated investment methods and develop analytical skills necessary for real market adaptations .

Quality specifications in the agreement, such as API Gravity and sulfur content requirements, play a critical role in contract enforcement. They ensure that the crude oil supplied meets both national quality standards (QCVN) and the buyer's refining capabilities. Compliance with these specifications is vital as non-conformance could lead to rejection of goods, affecting shipment acceptance and financial penalties, thereby emphasizing the necessity for rigorous quality checks .

Specific risks in futures trading on the CME platform include price volatility influenced by geopolitical tensions such as the Russia–Ukraine conflict, Israel-Iran tensions, and US-China rivalry. These factors contribute to fluctuating crude oil prices, impacting futures trading outcomes and necessitating strategic risk management by organizations like Petrolimex to stabilize revenues .

The significant profitability of VND 2,333 billion from non-petroleum sectors like insurance and banking highlights Petrolimex's strategic diversification beyond its core operations. This diversification mitigates risks associated with volatile petroleum markets and strengthens the group's economic resilience, enabling stable and diversified revenue streams, and bolstering its market positioning .

The contract stipulates that payment will be made 40% in cash and 60% via bank transfer, entirely in Vietnamese Dong (VND), with foreign currency conversion rates based on the exchange rate at the delivery time. This structure ensures liquidity and stabilizes cash flow for Petrolimex, while the need for exchange rate conversion introduces an additional currency risk, impacting financial planning and obligations for both parties .

The force majeure clause in the Petrolimex contract encompasses unforeseeable events that prevent contract fulfillment, which cannot be mitigated despite reasonable efforts. Such clauses protect both parties from liabilities resulting from natural disasters, war, or similar disruptions. If triggered, this clause can delay obligations without penalties, potentially affecting timelines and financial expectations .

The primary business sectors of Petrolimex include petroleum trading, petroleum transportation, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), petrochemicals, and ancillary sectors such as insurance and banking. These sectors collectively contributed to significant financial results, with consolidated revenue reaching VND 304,064 billion and a pre-tax profit of VND 2,270 billion. Notably, non-petroleum businesses, which include these sectors, emerged as crucial by contributing VND 2,333 billion in profit .

In the crude oil purchase contract between Petrolimex and ADNOC, the delivery method is crucial as it outlines responsibilities related to logistics and cost-sharing. The contract specifies the delivery location at B12 Oil Port, with each party bearing half of the transportation costs. This not only controls potential disputes regarding financial liabilities but also ensures each party contributes equally to the logistics, thereby streamlining operations .

Futures contracts standardize trading processes by providing predefined terms such as asset type, quality, contract size, and payment methods, which are regulated and uniform. This standardization facilitates market analysis, risk management, and decision-making. For enterprises like Petrolimex, futures contracts offer high liquidity, which ensures quick trade execution, and they pose low risk due to the specific rights and obligations binding both parties. These benefits are crucial for hedging against price fluctuations in commodities, thereby stabilizing revenue .

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