METHODOLOGY AND SPECIFICATIONS GUIDE

ARGUS NITROGEN

Contents:
Methodology overview 2
Publication frequency 5
General methodology 5
Assessing price ranges 5
Spot and formula pricing 6
Terms6
Units6
Lot and cargo sizes 6
Products and specifications 6
Urea6
Ammonium sulphate (amsul) 6
Ammonium nitrate (AN) 7
Urea ammonium nitrate (UAN) 7
Calcium ammonium nitrate (CAN) 7
Markets covered 7
Prilled urea 7
Granular urea 7
Ammonium sulphate 9
Ammonium nitrate
 9
UAN solutions 10
CAN production costs 10
Natural gas prices 11
Freight rates 11

LAST UPDATED: FEBRUARY 2025

The most up-to-date Argus Nitrogen methodology is available on www.argusmedia.com

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METHODOLOGY AND SPECIFICATIONS GUIDE February 2025

Methodology overview •O
 ther market information, to include spread values between
grades, locations, timings, and many other data.
Methodology rationale
Argus strives to construct methodologies that reflect the way the In many markets, the relevant methodology will assign a relatively
market trades. Argus aims to produce price assessments which higher importance to transactions over bids and offers, and a
are reliable indicators of commodity market values and are free relatively higher importance to bids and offers over other market
from distortion. As a result, the specific currencies, volume units, information. Certain markets however will exist for which such a
locations and other particulars of an assessment are determined by hierarchy would produce unreliable and non-representative price as-
industry conventions. sessments, and so the methodology must assign a different relative
importance in order to ensure the quality and integrity of the price
In the Nitrogen fertilizer markets, Argus publishes prices as laid out assessment. And even in markets for which the hierarchy normally
in the specifications and methodology guide. Argus uses the trading applies, certain market situations will at times emerge for which the
period deemed by Argus to be most appropriate, in consultation strict hierarchy would produce non-representative prices, requiring
with industry, to capture market liquidity. Argus to adapt in order to publish representative prices.

In order to be included in the assessment process, deals must meet Verification of transaction data
the minimum volume, delivery, timing and specification require- Reporters carefully analyse all data submitted to the price assess-
ments in our methodology. In illiquid markets, Argus assesses the ment process. These data include transactions, bids, offers, vol-
range within which product could have traded by applying a strict umes, counterparties, specifications and any other information that
process outlined later in this methodology. contributes materially to the determination of price. This high level
of care described applies regardless of the methodology employed.
Survey process Specific to transactions, bids, and offers, reporters seek to verify the
Argus price assessments are informed by information received from price, the volume, the specifications, location basis, and counter-
a wide cross section of market participants, including producers, party. In some transactional average methodologies, reporters also
consumers and intermediaries. Argus reporters engage with the in- examine the full array of transactions to match counterparties and
dustry by proactively polling participants for market data. Argus will arrive at a list of unique transactions. In some transactional average
contact and accept market data from all credible market sources methodologies, full details of the transactions verified are published
including front and back office of market participants and brokers. electronically and are accessible to subscribers. The deals are also
Argus will also receive market data from electronic trading platforms published in the daily report.
and directly from the back offices of market participants. Argus will
accept market data by telephone, instant messenger, email or other Several tests are applied by reporters in all markets to transactional
means. data to determine if it should be subjected to further scrutiny. If a
transaction has been identified as failing such a test, it will receive
Argus encourages all sources of market data to submit all market further scrutiny. For assessments used to settle derivatives and for
data to which they are a party that falls within the Argus stated many other assessments, Argus has established internal proce-
methodological criteria for the relevant assessment. Argus encour- dures that involve escalation of inquiry within the source’s company
ages all sources of market data to submit transaction data from and escalating review within Argus management. Should this pro-
back office functions. cess determine that a transaction should be excluded from the price
assessment process, the supervising editor will initiate approval
Throughout all markets, Argus is constantly seeking to increase and, if necessary, documentation procedures.
the number of companies willing to provide market data. Report-
ers are mentored and held accountable for expanding their pool Primary tests applied by reporters
of contacts. The number of entities providing market data can vary • Transactions not transacted at arm’s length, including deals
significantly from day to day based on market conditions. between related parties or affiliates.
• Transaction prices that deviate significantly from the mean of
For certain price assessments identified by local management, if more all transactions submitted for that day.
than 50pc of the market data involved in arriving at a price assessment • Transaction prices that fall outside of the generally observed
is sourced from a single party the supervising editor will engage in an lows and highs that operated throughout the trading day.
analysis of the market data with the primary reporter to ensure that the • Transactions that are suspected to be a leg of another trans-
quality and integrity of the assessment has not been affected. action or in some way contingent on an unknown transaction.
• Single deal volumes that significantly exceed the typical trans-
Market data usage action volume for that market.
In each market, Argus uses the methodological approach deemed • Transaction details that are identified by other market par-
to be the most reliable and representative for that market. Argus will ticipants as being for any reason potentially anomalous and
utilise various types of market data in its methodologies, to include: perceived by Argus to be as such.
• Transactions • Transaction details that are reported by one counterparty dif-
• Bids and offers ferently than the other counterparty.

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METHODOLOGY AND SPECIFICATIONS GUIDE February 2025

•A  ny transaction details that appear to the reporter to be illogi- significantly narrows the band within which a commodity can be as-
cal or to stray from the norms of trading behaviour. This could sessed, and greatly increases the accuracy and consistency of the
include but is not limited to divergent specifications, unusual price series. The application of judgment is conducted jointly with
delivery location and counterparties not typically seen. the supervising editor, in order to be sure that guidelines below are
• Transactions that involve the same counterparties, the same being followed. Valuation metrics include the following:
price and delivery dates are checked to see that they are
separate deals and not one deal duplicated in Argus records. Relative value transactions
Frequently transactions occur which instead of being an outright
Secondary tests applied by editors for transactions purchase or sale of a single commodity, are instead exchanges of
identified for further scrutiny commodities. Such transactions allow reporters to value less liquid
markets against more liquid ones and establish a strong basis for
Transaction tests the exercise of judgment.
• The impact of linkage of the deal to possible other transac-
tions such as contingent legs, exchanges, options, swaps, •E  xchange one commodity for a different commodity in the
or other derivative instruments. This will include a review of same market at a negotiated value.
transactions in markets that the reporter may not be covering. • Exchange delivery dates for the same commodity at a negoti-
• The nature of disagreement between counterparties on trans- ated value.
actional details. • Exchange a commodity in one location for the same com-
• The possibility that a deal is directly linked to an offsetting modity at another location at a negotiated value.
transaction that is not publicly known, for example a “wash
trade” which has the purpose of influencing the published Bids and offers
price. If a sufficient number of bids and offers populate the market, then
• The impact of non-market factors on price or volume, includ- the highest bid and the lowest offer can be assumed to define the
ing distressed delivery, credit issues, scheduling issues, boundaries between which a deal could be transacted.
demurrage, or containment.
Comparative metrics
Source tests The relative values between compared commodities are readily
• The credibility of the explanation provided for the outlying discussed in the market and can be discovered through dialogue
nature of the transaction. with market participants. These discussions are the precursor to
• The track record of the source. Sources will be deemed more negotiation and conclusion of transactions.
credible if they
• Regularly provide transaction data with few errors. •C  omparison to the same commodity in another market centre.
• Provide data by Argus’ established deadline. • Comparison to a more actively traded but slightly different
• Quickly respond to queries from Argus reporters. specification commodity in the same market centre.
• Have staff designated to respond to such queries. • Analysis of prices in forward markets for physically deliverable
• How close the information receipt is to the deadline for commodity that allow extrapolation of value into the prompt
information, and the impact of that proximity on the validation timing for the commodity assessed.
process. • Comparison to the commodity’s primary feedstock or primary
derived product(s).
Assessment guidelines • Comparison to trade in the same commodity but in a different
When insufficient, inadequate, or no transaction information exists, modality (as in barge versus oceangoing vessel) or in a dif-
or when Argus concludes that a transaction based methodology will ferent total volume (as in full cargo load versus partial cargo
not produce representative prices, Argus reporters will make an as- load).
sessment of market value by applying intelligent judgment based on
a broad array of factual market information. Reporters must use a Volume minimums and transaction data thresholds
high degree of care in gathering and validating all market data used Because of the varying transportation infrastructure found in all com-
in determining price assessments, a degree of care equal to that modity markets, Argus typically does not establish thresholds strictly
applying to gathering and validating transactions. The information on the basis of a count of transactions, as this could lead to unreliable
used to form an assessment could include deals done, bids, offers, and non-representative assessments. Instead, minimum volumes are
tenders, spread trades, exchange trades, fundamental supply and typically established which may apply to each transaction accepted, to
demand information and other inputs. the aggregate of transactions, to transactions which set a low or high
assessment or to other volumetrically relevant parameters.
The assessment process employing judgment is rigorous, replica-
ble, and uses widely accepted valuation metrics. These valuation For price assessments used to settle derivatives, Argus will seek to
metrics mirror the process used by physical commodity traders establish minimum transaction data thresholds and when no such
to internally assess value prior to entering the market with a bid or threshold can be established Argus will explain the reasons. These
offer. Applying these valuation metrics along with sound judgment thresholds will often reflect the minimum volumes necessary to

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METHODOLOGY AND SPECIFICATIONS GUIDE February 2025

produce a transaction-based methodology, but may also establish various third-party data integrators. The Argus website also provides
minimum deal parameters for use by a methodology that is based access to prices, reports and news with various web-based tools.
primarily on judgment. All Argus prices are kept in a historical database and available for
purchase. Contact your local Argus office for information.
Should no transaction threshold exist, or should submitted data fall
below this methodology’s stated transaction data threshold for any Corrections to assessments
reason, Argus will follow the procedures outlined elsewhere in this Argus will on occasion publish corrections to price assessments
document regarding the exercise of judgment in the price assess- after the publication date. We will correct errors that arise from cleri-
ment process. cal mistakes, calculation errors, or a misapplication of our stated
methodology. Argus will also correct errors that arise from mistakes
Minimum transaction thresholds made by market participants in reporting transactions. Argus will not
retroactively assess markets based on new information learned after
Minimum trade volume for inclu- the assessments are published.
Assessment
sion in assessment

Ethics and compliance

Prilled urea - fob bulk Black Sea 5,000t Argus operates according to the best practices in the publishing
Granular urea - Egypt fob field, and maintains thorough compliance procedures throughout
5,000t
(Europe) the firm. We want to be seen as a preferred provider by our sub-
Prilled urea - China fob 5,000t scribers, who are held to equally high standards, while at the same
Granular urea - Middle East fob - time maintaining our editorial integrity and independence. Argus
5,000t has a strict ethics policy that applies to all staff. The policy can be
US netback
Granular urea - Brazil cfr 5,000t
found on our website at www.argusmedia.com. Included in this
policy are restrictions against staff trading in commodities or related
Granular urea - US Gulf fob 1,500st stocks, and guidelines for accepting gifts. Argus also has strict
policies regarding central archiving of email and instant messenger
Ammonium sulphate - China fob 5,000t
communication, maintenance and archiving of notes, and archiving
UAN - Rouen 30pc fca 100t of spreadsheets and deal lists used in the price assessment pro-
cess. Argus publishes prices that report and reflect prevailing levels
France AN fca 100t for open-market arms length transactions (please see the Argus
Global Compliance Policy for a detailed definition of arms length).
UK AN cif 100t

Germany CAN cif inland 100t Consistency in the assessment process

Argus recognises the need to have judgment consistently applied
Automotive grade urea 100t by reporters covering separate markets, and by reporters replacing
existing reporters in the assessment process. In order to ensure
this consistency, Argus has developed a programme of training and
Transparency oversight of reporters. This programme includes:
Argus values transparency in markets. As a result, we publish lists
of deals in our reports that include price, basis, counterparty and •A  global price reporting manual describing among other
volume information. The deal tables allow subscribers to cross things the guidelines for the exercise of judgment.
check and verify the deals against the prices. Argus feels transpar- • Cross-training of staff between markets to ensure proper holi-
ency and openness is vital to developing confidence in the price day and sick leave backup. Editors that float between markets
assessment process. to monitor staff application of best practices.
• Experienced editors overseeing reporting teams are involved
Swaps and forwards markets in daily mentoring and assisting in the application of judgment
Argus publishes forward assessments for numerous markets. These for illiquid markets.
include forward market contracts that can allow physical delivery and • Editors are required to sign-off on all price assessments each
swaps contracts that swap a fixed price for the average of a floating day, thus ensuring the consistent application of judgment.
published price. Argus looks at forward swaps to inform physical as-
sessments but places primary emphasis on the physical markets. Review of methodology
The overriding objective of any methodology is to produce price as-
Publications and price data sessments which are reliable indicators of commodity market values
Argus Nitrogen fertilizers prices are published in the Argus Nitro- and are free from distortion. As a result, Argus editors and reporters are
gen report. Subsets of these prices appear in other Argus market regularly examining our methodologies and are in regular dialogue with
reports and newsletters in various forms. The price data are available the industry in order to ensure that the methodologies are representa-
independent of the text-based report in electronic files that can feed tive of the physical market being assessed. This process is integral
into various databases. These price data are also supplied through with reporting on a given market. In addition to this ongoing review of

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METHODOLOGY AND SPECIFICATIONS GUIDE February 2025

methodology, Argus conducts reviews of all of its methodologies and Publication frequency
methodology documents on at least an annual basis.
Argus market report editors and management will periodically and Argus publishes the Argus Nitrogen report once a week on a Thurs-
as merited initiate reviews of market coverage based on a qualita- day evening in the UK
tive analysis that includes measurements of liquidity, visibility of
market data, consistency of market data, quality of market data and The weekly report is published 51 weeks of the year on a Thursday
industry usage of the assessments. Report editors will review: evening.

• Appropriateness of the methodology of existing assessments The weekly Argus Nitrogen report is not published for one week dur-
• Termination of existing assessments ing the Christmas/New Year holidays in the UK although the dates
• Initiation of new assessments of non-publication are dependent on when holidays fall within the
week.
The report editor will initiate an informal process to examine viability.
This process includes: A full publication schedule is available at www.argusmedia.com.

• Informal discussions with market participants

• Informal discussions with other stakeholders General methodology
• Internal review of market data
Argus surveys a wide variety of market participants during the
Should changes, terminations, or initiations be merited, the report course of the week including producers, trader, buyers, sellers and
editor will submit an internal proposal to management for review other market analysts. This survey seeks to confirm what trade has
and approval. Should changes or terminations of existing assess- been done, by whom, as well as firm bids and offers. The goal is to
ments be approved, then formal procedures for external consulta- cross check market transactions from all participants wherever pos-
tion are begun. sible. The survey also seeks to ascertain fundamentals data, tender
news and supply and demand information. Argus will contact and
Changes to methodology accept market data from all credible market sources including front
Formal proposals to change methodologies typically emerge out of and back office of market participants and brokers.
the ongoing process of internal and external review of the meth-
odologies. Formal procedures for external consultation regarding
material changes to existing methodologies will be initiated with an Assessing price ranges
announcement of the proposed change published in the relevant
Argus report. This announcement will include: Nitrogen prices are assessed on a free on board (fob), cost and
freight (cfr), cost, insurance and freight (cif) or free carrier (fca).
• Details on the proposed change and the rationale basis. Deals, bids and offers must be considered repeatable to be
• Method for submitting comments with a deadline for submis- included in the assessments.
sions
• For prices used in derivatives, notice that all formal comments The report seeks to determine price ranges in which actual transac-
will be published after the given consultation period unless tions are taking place or in which transactions could have taken
submitter requests confidentiality place between a willing buyer and seller.

Argus will provide sufficient opportunity for stakeholders to analyse When there is sufficient liquidity and deals data are deemed reliable
and comment on changes, but will not allow the time needed to follow and representative, the price range will be defined on the low and the
these procedures to create a situation wherein unrepresentative or false high end of confirmed deals concluded throughout the trading week.
prices are published, markets are disrupted, or market participants are These deals must meet the minimum volumes and strict delivery tim-
put at unnecessary risk. Argus will engage with industry throughout this ing, as well as specifications as laid down in this methodology.
process in order to gain acceptance of proposed changes to method-
ology. Argus cannot however guarantee universal acceptance and will Information on transactions, bids and offers that lie outside the
act for the good order of the market and ensure the continued integrity specifications of timing, size, location and quality may be used in
of its price assessments as an overriding objective. assessing price ranges, but deals that lie within these specifications
are given most weight.
Following the consultation period, Argus management will com-
mence an internal review and decide on the methodology change. In markets that periodically lack liquidity, Argus may assess price
This will be followed by an announcement of the decision, which ranges based on a range of other market information including
will be published in the relevant Argus report and include a date for netbacks to more liquid markets and market fundamentals.
implementation. For prices used in derivatives, publication of stake-
holders’ formal comments that are not subject to confidentiality and
Argus’ response to those comments will also take place.

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METHODOLOGY AND SPECIFICATIONS GUIDE February 2025

Assessment period in the text.

Prices are for the week up to and including the day of publication. Fob northwest Europe (standard) and northwest Europe (granular)
Market information received after 4.30pm London time on the day of ammonium sulphate prices, which consider for inclusion in the
publication may not be considered for inclusion in the assessment. assessment trade of at least 500t for trade to destinations within
During periods of high volatility, assessments are weighted towards Europe. Trades to other destinations or to unknown destinations
trading activity later in the week. must be for at least 5,000t.

Fob Black Sea ammonium sulphate prices are for trade of at least
Spot and formula pricing 2,000t.

Spot pricing refers to specific cargoes sold that are scheduled to For the nitrogen report, Argus considers cargoes as follows — typi-
load within 40 days of the sale being agreed. These prices are cash cal short sea routes in Europe — for example from Egypt — employ
prices, i.e. net of any credit. vessels of 5,000-6,000t. Deepsea voyages employ handysize ves-
sels and above:
Formula pricing is an arrangement where a buyer and seller agree
in advance that the price to be paid for a product delivered in the •H andysize 10,000-35,000t (the majority of deepsea nitrogen
future will be based on a pre-determined calculation, sometimes uti- trade)
lising published prices from Argus and/or other publications. Given • Handymax (35,000-49,000t)
that the exact nature of the calculation or the agreement between • Panamax (50,000-70,000t)
the parties is often private and confidential, and if the deal is con-
sidered a one-off (i.e not repeatable) then calculated netbacks are In the US domestic nitrogen market, a typical barge at New Orleans
not used in formulation of a spot price range. However, if a buyer (Nola) is 1,500st.
and seller use this method of pricing for multiple transactions on a
specific trade route, then the editor may use the deal in formulating
a spot price range using current known cfr levels, domestic prices in Products and specifications
the destination country and indicative freight rates.
Urea
Urea is a dry bulk fertilizer containing 46pc nitrogen by weight. It is pro-
Terms duced by combining ammonia with carbon dioxide, which is generated
during the production of ammonia. It is produced in two forms — prilled
Some transactions are conducted on a sight/cash basis, but where and granular. Both of these are widely used for direct application to
credit terms apply, e.g. up to 180 days, these are taken into account land. Granular urea is also often used as a feedstock for bulk blending
and subtracted from the price so that the published price is net of for NPK manufacture. Prilled urea is also used in a variety of industrial
credit or other terms. processes. Prices are only assessed based on deals concluded in the
agricultural sector. Sales to the industrial sector may be discussed in
the text, but will not form part of the assessment.
Units
Automotive grade urea (AGU) is low biuret prilled urea, contain-
Most prices are assessed in $/t, apart from US domestic assess- ing 46pc nitrogen by weight, and without a formaldehyde coating. It
ments, which are priced in short tons (st), European market assess- can be used — without the mixture of another higher purity urea —
ments, which are priced in €/t or £/t and the fca Geelong assess- to produce diesel exhaust fluid (DEF), AdBlue or Arla 32 as defined
ment, which is priced in Australian dollars per tonne. Argus Nitrogen by quality specifications set by ISO-22241. AGU contains no more
also includes reference prices for weekly US and European natural than 0.8pc by weight of biuret and 5mg/kg of aldehydes.
gas prices in $/million British thermal units ($/mn Btu).
Ammonium sulphate (amsul)
Ammonium sulphate (amsul) is a dry bulk fertilizer containing
Lot and cargo sizes 21pc nitrogen and 24pc sulphur. It is used for direct application in
agriculture, as a component in producing nitrogen fertilizers containing
For international trade, unless noted otherwise, the minimum lot size sulphur and as a raw material in making compound fertilizers. Am-
used for consideration and inclusion in the relevant price range is monium sulphate is produced primarily as a by-product or co-product
5,000t of a particular product (this includes part cargoes on larger of other processes, most commonly in the manufacture of caprolactam
vessels including other fertilizers and for which the freight rate may and acrylonitrile and also from steel making. Caprolactam grade am-
be more favourable – although this will be explained in the text). monium sulphate is sometimes referred to as standard or crystalline
ammonium sulphate. Steel grade ammonium sulphate is a lower qual-
Exceptions: US domestic prices, which are for one barge, assumed ity product and is often referred to as raw material grade.
to be carrying a minimum of 1,500st, with no set maximum number
of barges. There may be occasions when a barge is loaded with less The prices assessed refer to caprolactam grade ammonium sul-
quantity for reasons of low draught levels, but this will be explained fully phate, except where specified

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Ammonium nitrate (AN) suppliers, trading companies that buy urea from myriad producers
Ammonium nitrate (AN) is a dry bulk fertilizer containing 33.5- and distributors in the country. The main markets for Chinese urea
34.5pc nitrogen. It is used for direct application in agriculture. AN are India and Asia-Pacific.
can also be used as an explosive. The prices published in Argus
nitrogen refer only to agricultural grade AN. AN is classified as a Southeast Asia cfr
hazardous substance and various countries have introduced regula- The price of spot sales of prilled urea to southeast Asian markets
tions controlling its transport, storage and handling. including by not limited to the Philippines, Vietnam and Malaysia.
Prices are determined through conversations with producers, trad-
Urea ammonium nitrate (UAN) ing companies and end-users in the region.
Urea ammonium nitrate (UAN) solutions are a liquid fertilizer
typically containing 28-32pc nitrogen and consisting of 50pc urea Brazil cfr
and 50pc ammonium nitrate in liquid form. UAN is used in a minor- This price assessed is for all Brazilian ports. It is determined through
ity of countries owing to the more sophisticated handling, storage conversations with trading companies and end-buyers.
and application required. UAN is not a hazardous substance and
requires only mild steel tanks to transport and store it. Mexico east coast cfr
This price assessed is for all Mexican east coast ports, the main
Calcium ammonium nitrate (CAN) destinations for imports of prilled urea into the country. It is determined
Calcium ammonium nitrate (CAN) is a dry bulk fertilizer contain- through conversations with export producers, trading companies and
ing 26-28pc nitrogen. It is used for direct application in agriculture. end-buyers. Mexico is a major outlet for prilled urea from Russia.

Prilled urea India (cfr)

Markets covered This price is assessed for all Indian ports. It is based on prices set in
tenders held by government agencies and any private sector imports.
Prilled urea The price range reflects the lowest and highest prices set in the ten-
ders for different discharge ports. Government tenders take place at
Black Sea fob varying intervals throughout the year. In the absence of private sector
Pivdenny is the principal Black Sea export terminal for Ukrainian business, prices will remain unchanged from one tender to the next.
urea. Tuapse is the port used for exports of urea from Eurochem’s
plants in Russia. The price is derived from sales of Ukrainian and Automotive grade fob China
Russian urea made each week from these ports. Sales are made The price of exports from ports in China. Assessed on the basis of
both fob to trading companies and cfr to end-buyers. Both the fob discussions with producers, traders and buyers active in the region.
sales and prices netted back from cfr sales are used in determining
the weekly price range. The main export markets are Turkey, eastern Automotive grade fob Russia
Europe and Latin America. Russian urea is subject to a 6.5pc import The price of at least 500t of AGU in big bags exported from Rus-
duty in the EU and Turkey. sian ports in containers. Assessed on the basis of discussions with
producers, traders and buyers active in the region.
Baltic fob
This price is derived from sales of mainly Russian urea made Automotive grade cfr India
through several Baltic ports ranging from Kotka and St Petersburg The price of imports to Indian ports. Assessed on the basis of dis-
in the north to Klaipeda in the south. Six Russian urea producers cussions with producers, traders and buyers active in the region.
regularly sell through Baltic ports, not only on a fob basis to traders,
but also on a cfr basis to end-buyers. Both the fob sales and prices Automotive grade cfr Brazil
netted back from cfr sales are used in determining the weekly price See the Argus Brazil Grains and Fertilizer methodology.
range. The main markets for Baltic urea are in North and South
America and in Europe. Russian urea is subject to a 6.5pc import Granular urea
duty in the EU and Turkey.
Middle East fob all netbacks
Middle East fob This price range is based on the high and low points of the three
This price relates to sales from Muntajat of Qatar and Sabic of Saudi subsequent price assessments. The assessment excludes ship-
Arabia, who are the only two producers of prilled urea in the region. ments from Iran.
Much of the urea is sold under price formulae to regular buyers.
Prices are determined through conversations with the producers in Middle East fob – US netback
the two countries and traders and end-users in the client markets. This is a calculated price based on the US Gulf cfr metric tonne price
(see below) minus the freight rate for a 35,000-45,000t vessel be-
China fob tween the Mideast Gulf, excluding Iran, and the US Gulf. The assess-
This price covers prilled urea shipped from a range of ports in ment also includes any spot sales made fob Middle East specifically
China. Prices are determined through conversations with Chinese for the US market. Iranian urea is excluded from the US market.

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Middle East fob – Brazil netback Nigeria fob

This is a calculated price based on the Brazil cfr metric tonne price This price is based on the sales of the exporting producers in Nigeria.
(see below) minus the freight rate for a 40,000t vessel between the Netback calculations are also used in weeks when no spot sales have
Middle East Gulf, excluding Iran and Brazil. The assessment also taken place, based mainly on Brazil, which is the largest destination
includes any spot sales made fob Middle East specifically for the for Nigerian urea exports. Prices are determined by conversations with
Brazilian market. producers and the trading companies that buy urea from them.

Middle East fob – non-US netbacks (spot) China fob

This price is based on assessments of spot market sales for Middle This price is based on exports from producers and trading compa-
East granular urea, excluding Iran. A minority of sales by Middle nies in China. Granular urea is mainly exported from ports in northern
East urea producers are made on a spot basis. However, this price China, with the exception of urea from China BlueChemical’s plant at
is the most representative of the current situation in the urea market Basuo in Hainan province. Prices are determined by conversations
and is used as a benchmark in formula-based sales. The price is with producers and trading companies active in the region.
determined through conversations with Middle East producers, trad-
ing companies and end-buyers. Southeast Asia fob
This price is based on exports from Petronas in Malaysia and
Prices are assessed based on fixed-price fob sales reported by pro- Indonesian producer PT Pupuk Kalimantan Timur (Kaltim) and
ducers and traders. Where there are no confirmed fixed-price sales state-owned Brunei Fertilizer Industries. Prices are determined by
during the week, prices are assessed using firm bids and offers conversations with producers and trading companies active in the
confirmed by suppliers, traders and buyers. Netback calculations region.
from representative markets may also be considered. Netback cal-
culations are made based on cfr sales minus representative freight Southeast Asia cfr
rates for the vessel sizes involved. This price refers to sales of granular urea made principally in Thai-
land, Vietnam and the Philippines from the Middle East, Indonesia
Iran fob and Malaysia. Prices are determined by conversations with produc-
This price is based on exports from Iranian ports. Iranian urea can- ers supplying into the region, trading companies and end-buyers in
not trade freely owing to international sanctions against the country. southeast Asia.
It is sold through a small number of specialist trading companies
that are prepared to trade with Iran. The restrictions on its sale mean Geelong, Australia fca
that Iranian urea has to be sold at a discount to urea from other The price of at least 10t, bulk from warehouses in Geelong for ship-
producers in the Middle East. ment by truck. Assessed and published in Australian dollars/tonne.

Egypt fob (Europe) Venezuela/Trinidad fob

This price is based on the sales of the exporting producers in Egypt This price is based on shipments from Fertinitro in Venezuela and
to European markets and Turkey. Prices are determined by conver- Nutrien in Trinidad and Tobago. Most sales are made based on
sations with the producers in Egypt and trading companies who buy formula pricing. Where there are no spot sales in a particular week,
the urea from them. prices are calculated from cfr values for granular urea in the US Gulf
and Latin America minus freight.
Egypt fob (non-Europe)
This price is based on the sales of the exporting producers in Egypt Argentina cfr
to markets excluding Europe and Turkey. Prices are determined by
conversations with the producers in Egypt and trading companies Brazil cfr
who buy the urea from them. This price is assessed for all Brazilian ports. It is determined through
conversations with trading companies and end-buyers. Brazil is a major
Algeria fob outlet for granular urea from the Middle East, Nigeria and north Africa.
This price is based on the sales of the two exporting producers in
Algeria. Sales are made using various price formulae as well as on a Mexico west coast cfr
fixed-price basis. The prices are assessed based on fob sales and This price is assessed for all Mexican Pacific coast ports. It is
on netbacks calculated from the various markets in which Algerian determined through conversations with export producers, trading
urea is sold, mainly in western Europe and the Americas. Prices are companies and end-buyers. Mexico is a major outlet for granular
determined by conversations with the producers and the trading urea from the Middle East and China.
companies that buy the urea from them.
US Gulf fob (pst barge)
Granular urea north Africa full range See Urea (granular) Nola barge fob in the Argus North American
This price assessment is set by taking the high and low prices from the Fertilizer methodology.
Egypt (fob Europe and fob non-Europe) and Algeria fob assessments.

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US Gulf (cfr metric) assessed on the basis of discussions with producers, traders and buy-
See Urea (granular) Nola cfr t import eq in the Argus North Ameri- ers active in the region. The price is assessed in US dollars per tonne.
can Fertilizer methodology.
Fob northwest Europe (standard caprolactam)
Nola barge weighted average This price covers exports of standard (also known as crystalline) capro-
See Urea (granular) Nola urea delivery month barge-weighted aver- lactam grade ammonium sulphate from key ports in northwest Europe.
age in the Argus North American Fertilizer methodology. The product is made up of 20-21pc nitrogen and 24pc water-soluble
sulphur. The standard caprolactam grade is a smaller type of granule
French Atlantic fca euro than granular caprolactam grade. The price is assessed on the basis
This price is based on imported granular urea sold from the ports of La of discussions with producers, traders and buyers active in the region.
Pallice, Bordeaux and Bayonne. The main supply sources are Egypt The price is assessed in US dollars per tonne.
and Algeria, with additional urea sold from Russia, the Netherlands and
from the Middle East. Prices are determined from conversations with Fob China (granular caprolactam)
importers, traders and producers involved in the trade. This price covers exports of compacted and granular caprolactam
grade ammonium sulphate from a range of ports in China. The price
Granular urea Baltic fob is assessed on the basis of discussions with producers, traders and
This price is derived from sales of Russian and Belarusian urea buyers active in the region.
made through Baltic ports, mainly on a fob basis to traders, but also
on a cfr or fca basis to end-buyers. Both the fob sales and prices Fob China (standard caprolactam)
netted back from cfr/fca sales are used in determining the weekly This price covers exports of standard caprolactam grade ammo-
price range. Prices are determined by conversations with produc- nium sulphate from a range of ports in China. The price is assessed
ers and trading companies active in the region and with buyers in on the basis of discussions with producers, traders and buyers
European and American markets. active in the region.

Granular urea Black Sea fob Cfr southeast Asia (caprolactam)

This price is derived from sales of Russian and Central Asian urea This price refers to sales of caprolactam grade ammonium sulphate
made through Black Sea ports. Producers regularly sell through ports imported to Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam and the Philip-
in the Black Sea, mainly on a fob basis to traders, but also on a cfr or pines. The largest supply source is China, but there are also sizeable
fca basis to end-buyers. Both the fob sales and prices netted back exports from South Korea and Japan into the region. Shipment size
from cfr/fca sales are used in determining the weekly price range. The is typically 5,000-6,000t but can extend to 25,000t for some buyers.
main markets for Black Sea urea are in Turkey, the Balkans, Mediter-
ranean, Europe and North and South America. Russian, Turkmen and Cfr Brazil (granular caprolactam)
Azeri urea is subject to a 6.5pc import duty in the EU. Prices are deter- This price refers to sales of compacted and granular caprolactam
mined by conversations with producers and trading companies active grade ammonium sulphate made to ports in Brazil. The main supply
in the region and with buyers in key markets. sources are in China, Europe and the US.

Romania cfr Cfr Brazil (standard caprolactam)

The price of imports into Constantza. Prices are determined through This price refers to sales of standard caprolactam grade ammonium
conversations with buyers and suppliers. The main origins are typi- sulphate made to ports in Brazil, which is the largest importer of this
cally Egypt and central Asia. product worldwide. The main supply sources are in western Europe,
China and the US.
Granular urea India (cfr)
This price is assessed for all Indian ports. It is based on prices set in Ammonium nitrate
tenders held by government agencies and any private sector imports.
The price range reflects the lowest and highest prices set in the tenders Fob Baltic bulk
for different discharge ports. Government tenders take place at varying This price covers exports of ammonium nitrate in bulk from Russian
intervals throughout the year. In the absence of private sector business, producers from a range of ports in the Baltic Sea. The main export destina-
prices will remain unchanged from one tender to the next. tions are in South America and Africa. The price is assessed on the basis
of discussions with producers, traders and buyers active in the region.
Ammonium sulphate
Fob Black Sea bulk
Fob northwest Europe (granular caprolactam) This price covers exports of ammonium nitrate in bulk from export-
This price covers exports of granular caprolactam grade ammonium ers in the region. The main export destinations are Brazil and African
sulphate from key ports in northwest Europe. The product is made up markets. The price is assessed on the basis of discussions with
of 20-21pc nitrogen and 24pc water-soluble sulphur. The granular cap- producers, traders and buyers active in the region.
rolactam grade is a larger type of granule that can be more accurately
and widely spread than the standard caprolactam grade. The price is

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AN France fca bagged Fob Baltic Sea (Russian)

AN is imported from several countries including Lithuania, Poland This is a price for 32pc solution of Russian origin UAN fob Baltic Sea
and the UK. AN cannot be imported in bulk by vessel into most port in $/t. The price is assessed on the basis of discussions with
French seaports, but bulk AN can be railed or trucked to inland producers, traders and buyers active in the region.
destinations. The AN price published is assessed on the basis of
conversations with various market participants including producers,
importers, distributors and traders. AN is normally imported in vessels CAN production costs
of less than 5,000t, with sales made fca ex-seaport generally delivered
by truck to inland destinations. Argus publishes calculated calcium ammonium nitrate (CAN) pro-
duction costs based on Argus assessments and assumptions about
AN UK cif bagged the costs of various import and production pathways.
AN 34pc is imported from various countries, primarily Lithuania and
Poland, and offered on a cif or fca bagged basis. Imported AN is Unless stated, market prices for ammonia, CAN, CO2 emissions al-
priced in relation to UK-produced AN, to which it sells at a discount lowances, electricity and electricity guarantees of origin are the most
as domestic AN is favoured. The published price is assessed on recent published Argus assessments.
the basis of conversations with various market participants includ-
ing producers, importers, distributors, traders and buyers. AN is Production costs are bottom up estimated costs for a typical CAN
normally imported in vessels of less than 5,000t and delivered by and associated upstream nitric acid plant operating in northwest
truck to inland destinations. Europe with an annual production capacity of 330,000t. The cost
model includes variable raw material costs (water, catalysts) and
CAN Germany fixed costs (labour, maintenance and overheads) for nitric acid and
Yara, OCI and Eurochem Agro are among the CAN producers active variable raw material costs (limestone, coating agents) and fixed
in Germany. Commonly, producers will announce official list prices costs (labour, maintenance and overheads) for CAN.
for the month ahead or until further notice. The CAN price published
is assessed on the basis of conversations with various market Assumed costs and production model inputs are reviewed annually,
participants including producers, importers, distributors, traders and in January, and changes are announced to subscribers.
buyers, and reflects the level at which actual trade is taking place.
See the Argus Ammonia, Argus European Emissions Markets,
All of these assessments are based on cargo sizes of a minimum Argus European Electricity, Argus Global Energy Certificates and
100t. Most commonly, barge lots are 1,500-2,000t with quantities Argus Hydrogen and Future Fuels methodologies. CO2 produc-
below this usually transported by trucks. tion assumptions are drawn from The Carbon Footprint of Fertiliser
Production: Regional Reference Values.
UAN solutions
Carbon-adjusted inland Germany
Nola (short ton) The northwest Europe CAN price plus the prompt EU ETS price as-
See UAN Nola barge fob in the Argus North American Fertilizer suming 0.825t CO2/t CAN produced.
methodology.
Ammonia import-based cif inland northwest Europe
Rouen 30% N fot (€) The northwest Europe ammonia price plus the cost of moving
This is a price for 30pc solution ex-terminal in Rouen, France, in €/t. ammonia from the point of import to the CAN production plant,
Rouen is the main import port for UAN solutions shipped to France. plant operating costs and Dutch month-ahead wholesale electricity
Imports supply 100pc of the UAN solutions consumed by farmers prices. The calculation assumes $5/t to move ammonia from the
in France. The price is assessed on the basis of discussions with point of import to the CAN production plant, 0.35t of ammonia, $111
producers, traders and buyers active in the region. in operating costs and 52.6kWh of power consumed per tonne of
CAN produced. Fixed transport and operating costs for calculated
Fob Black Sea prices before 2024 have been adjusted for inflation.
This is a price for 32pc solution fob Black Sea port in $/t. There is only
one regular exporter of UAN solutions from the Black Sea — Russian Carbon-adjusted ammonia import-based cif inland
producer Eurochem, which exports from Novorossiysk. northwest Europe
The Ammonia import-based cif inland northwest Europe value plus
Fob Baltic Sea (non-Russian) the prompt EU ETS price assuming 0.87t CO2/t CAN produced.
This is a price for 32pc solution of non-Russian origin UAN fob Bal-
tic Sea port in $/t. The price is assessed on the basis of discussions BAT+ (best available technology + CCS) ammonia-
with producers, traders and buyers active in the region. based cif inland northwest Europe
The Dutch BAT+ ammonia price plus plant operating costs and
Dutch month-ahead wholesale electricity prices. The calculation
assumes 0.35t of ammonia, $111 in operating costs and 52.6kWh of
power consumed per tonne of CAN produced.

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Carbon-adjusted BAT+ (best available technology + Freight rates

CCS) ammonia-based cif inland northwest Europe
The BAT+ (best available technology + CCS) ammonia-based cif The freight rate in the Argus Nitrogen report shows the week’s aver-
inland northwest Europe value plus the prompt EU ETS price as- age spot rate range and the prior week’s range. Argus publishes
suming 0.34t CO2/t CAN produced and the cost of Dutch guaran- prices for international dry bulk and liquid shipping markets for
tees of origin for power from any renewable source. fertilizers and raw materials. Assessments are of the prevailing spot
rates for the major bulk fertilizer trade routes and relevant vessel
No-C (no CO2 emissions) ammonia-based cif inland sizes. Market information received after 4.30pm London time on
northwest Europe the day of assessment may not be considered for inclusion in the
The Dutch No C ammonia price plus plant operating costs and the assessment Subject to publication schedules, these assessments
levelised cost of power in the Netherlands. The calculation assumes are usually repeated in full on the following Friday in the Argus Dry
0.35t of ammonia, $111 in operating costs and 52.6kWh of self- Freight report.
generated renewable power consumed per tonne of CAN produced.
The levelised cost of power is used to approximate the unit cost of The freight ranges are established by surveying freight providers
self-generated electricity. and buyers of spot freight, maintaining a balance between both
parties. The assessment is for cargoes that will load and move
within the next 30 days. Argus makes an assessment of the range
Natural gas prices between the low and high prices provided.

Henry Hub ($/mn Btu) Dry bulk

This price is calculated as a weekly average of closing prices for Mideast Gulf*-US Gulf (45,000t)
Henry Hub gas published in other Argus reports. Henry Hub is one Mideast Gulf*-Thailand (30,000t)
of the main pricing points for natural gas in the US market. Mideast Gulf*-Brazil (40,000t)
Baltic-Brazil (30,000t)
See the Argus Natural Gas Americas methodology. Nigeria-Brazil (30,000t)
Egypt-French bay (6,000t)
TTF month ahead ($/mn Btu) China-SE Asia (6,000t)
This price is calculated as a weekly average of closing prices for China-India (60,000t)
TTF gas published in Argus European Natural Gas. TTF is one of Algeria-Brazil (30,000t)
the main pricing points for natural gas in western Europe. Algeria-US Gulf (30,000t)
Algeria-French bay (12,000t)
See the Argus European Natural Gas methodology. Baltic-EC Mexico (30,000t)
Baltic-WC Mexico (25,000t)
China-WC Mexico (25,000t)
*excluding Iran

Liquid
Klaipeda-Rouen (25,000-30,000t)

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