26 July, 2023 Session 2

Masahiko MURATA

KUISs：Kansai
KUISs：Kansai University
University ofStudies
of International International Studies 関西国際大学 11
 Contents
1. Introduction
2. Fact and major improvement based on lessons
learned from the Great Hanshin-Awaji
Earthquake (GHAE)
3. Preparedness For Future Disasters
• Transfer Passing on the Experiences and Lessons Learned
from the GHAE through DRI
• Phoenix Disaster Management System（PDMS)
• Enhancement of Emergency Management System of
Hyogo
• Union of Kansai Governments (UKG)
• Nankai Trough Mega Earthquake and Tsunami
2

• Tokyo Metropolitan Earthquake

KUISs：Kansai University of International Studies 2
 Self Introduction: Masahiko MURATA

1956 July : Born in Nishinomiya, Hyogo Prefecture, Japan

1979 Mar.: Graduated from the University of Tokyo(Urban Technology)
1979 Apr.: Joined the Hyogo Prefectural Government (Civil Engineer)
<Urban Planning, Street Road and Park, 21st Century Research Association, Public works office>

1995 January 17th : The Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake (GHAE)

1995 Mar.: The GHAE Reconstruction Headquarter (Public Works Reconstruction)
1998 Apr.: Asian Disaster Reduction Center (ADRC Kobe)/ Senior Researcher
2002 Apr.: Disaster Reduction and Human Renovation Inst.(DRI:Kobe Eq.Museum)
2005 Apr.: International Recovery Platform (ADRC)/ Recovery Expert)
2009 Apr.: Disaster Management Planning Division, Hyogo Pref. Government
2010 Dec.: Regional Disaster Management Division, Union of Kansai Governments (UKG)
2012 Apr.: Research Department, (DRI) (Director)/ Advisor to the Director General, Hyogo
2016 Apr.: Professor, Kansai University of International Studies (KUISs) Now
<Director, Office for Safety Management Education >
<2023 July: Councilor, Asian Disaster Reduction Center (ADRC) >

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My Birth place Nishinomiya City (Seismic intensity 7) built in 1930th
Many houses before revision of the 1981 Building code collapsed.

Happen to be unlucky???
•No expectation of Eq. occurrence, so
didn’t prepared
•No reinforcement for old house, no
indoor safety, no stockpiling….
•Could not communicate to relatives in
Tokyo for help ….

My collapsed house killed my grand

mom (94)!!!
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 Sanyo Shinkansen 5:46AM…before the first train

Type 300
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 Contents
1. Introduction
2. Fact and major improvement based on lessons
learned from the Great Hanshin-Awaji
Earthquake (GHAE)
3. Preparedness For Future Disasters
• Transfer Passing on the Experiences and Lessons Learned
from the GHAE through DRI
• Phoenix Disaster Management System（PDMS)
• Enhancement of Emergency Management System of
Hyogo
• Union of Kansai Governments (UKG)
• Nankai Trough Mega Earthquake and Tsunami 6

• Tokyo Metropolitan Earthquake

KUISs：Kansai University of International Studies 6

 Prefectura de
Hyogo
Hyogo Prefecture, Japan

Sea of
Japan Hyogo
Prefecture

Seto Inland Sea

Pacific
Ocean

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 Japan: Earthquake-Prone Islands
○ Japan’s land area: 0.25％ of the world
○ 20% of over M6 Eq.s in the world occur around Japan
○ Kobe experienced the Great Earthquake for the first time in its history
(No record, No assumption of a great earthquake hitting Kobe.
We believed in non-evidence myth “Kobe is free from Earthquake!!”)
○ The Great East Japan Earthquake (Mw9.0) followed by a gigantic Tsunami and nuclear power
explosion was beyond expectation. (Then assumed intensity was M8.4)
World Geographical Distribution of Hypocenters and Plates
(2011～2020, Magnitude ≧ 6.0)

1. Introduction Tsunami occurrence

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2. Fact and major improvement based on
The Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake (GHAE)
Scale: Magnitude 7.3(JMA)<Mw6.9>
Max. intensity: Seismic intensity of JMA 7
Epicenter: South of Hyogo (North Awaji)
Dead/Missing：6,437
Financial Damage: 9.9 trillion yen(2% of GDP)
Max. refugees: 316,678
Max. no. of shelters: 1,153
Buildings damaged: 256,754

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 Damage of old wooden houses (JP traditional)

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 Collapsed RC building on a road

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 Damaged Buildings (RC) Mid floor collapse

6th floor of the Kobe City Hall clashed

Chu0-Shintaku Bank

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 Damage of Shinkansen (Nishinomiya） Re-opened within 3 months

Imagine the worst scenario L=25mX16

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 Many Stakeholders for Recovery in urban disaster
Sannomiya Station (Central Kobe) just after the Eq.
→Need Coordination among stakeholders

Japan Railway, Hankyu Railway, Kobe Subway, Bus service, Street roads, Bld’gs with
Offices, Shops, Water, Sewerage, Electricity, Telecommunication,
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 Damage extends underground pipes
Under Essential lines buried under road / Hakata, Fukuoka Pref. 20161108)

Sewer pipe Water pipe

Power pipe Gas pipe
Sewer pipe

NTTpipe
Gas pipe

Road caved-in during subway station construction.

Provisional restoration: next day. Complete recovery : 7days
瞬間 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KOUZzMrzDH0
KUISs：関西国際大学
KUISs：Kansai University of International Studies
11/10 ﾆｭｰｽ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fvGjkMzAJMY ダイアモンド https://diamond.jp/articles/-/187300
15
15
 Kobe Sannomiya Station 1993-1995-1997-2020-2021
1993
2021～ 1995 2020
1997

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16
 Quick BBB Recovery
Land Readjustment, Urban Redevelopment

Fixed Point Observation Shin-Nagata 1995→2004

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 Quick BBB Recovery
Konan-Yamate 1997→2004

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Characteristics of the GHAE
 Occurred amid a transitional period of society
During the turning point from a growing (materially expanding) society (20C) to a
mature society (21C), which seeks quality of life and spiritual enrichment.
 Occurred in the large city centers
65% (3.6 million) of the Hyogo’s population lived, where economy, culture and
urban functions are concentrated. Eq collapse important infrastructures, then
paralyzed urban function.
 Occurred in the advanced aging society with low birth rate
Revealed the reality of an aging society, such as the difficulty for the elderly to
recover life on their own (30.5%of temporary house resident was elderly / national aging rate was 14.5% as of 1995)
Occurred in during the post-bubble economic downturn
Faced the double pain of the recovery and the economy, for a long period.

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 Major Lessons learned from the GHAE

Lack of preparedness for Eq.

• Governments were not well prepared for Eq. disasters
<Initial response system, Cooperation among Dis. Man.
Organizations were not enough >
• Rescue workers couldn’t reach to individuals
<Importance of local community & voluntary activities:
Save our lives by ourselves and community,
Outstanding activities by Volunteers>
• Schools, public buildings, houses were not seismic
resistant (83% killed by collapse of houses, 13% by fire)

Earthquake doesn’t kill people, but collapse of buildings kill people

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 2. Fact and Major Improvement based on Lessons
Learned from the GHAE

‘Safe and Secure Society’ Resilient to Disasters

I. Promotion of self-preparedness for Disasters Self-help

Mutual aid
II. Promotion of mutual aid

III. Development of laws and systems related to

Public aid
DRR
IV. Improvement and enhancement of response
capabilities of the government
V. Building disaster-resilient cities
Collaboration
VI. Enhancement and promotion of DRR education
VII. Promotion of international support and
21 contributions in the field of DRR

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2.Fact and Major Improvement based on Lessons

10-year GHAE Reconstruction Plan (Hyogo Phoenix Plan)

Basic Policy
Creative Reconstruction >Build Back Better
-- Suitable to the matured society of the 21st Century --

The aim is not merely returning to a pre-disaster level, but to recover the
city with a viewpoint of creating a new future by preparing for an aging
society and a shift in industrial structure

■ Harmonious Coexistence between People and People, People and Nature, and
Basic Theme
People and Society

Basic Goals （5 pillars）

Planning period
◼ Creation of a society dedicated to public welfare
tailored for the 21st century ■ Established: July, 1995
■ Target Year: 2005
◼ Creation of a culturally rich society open to the
world
◼ Creation of a society where existing industries grow Project costs & expenses
and new industries flourish ■ Planned amount: 17 trillion yen
◼ Creation of a disaster-resilient metropolis where
people can live safely and securely ■ Actual amount: 16.3 trillion yen
◼ Formation of a multi-centered network-type ・National government (51.3%), municipalities (38.7%),
and the private sector (10.0％)
metropolitan area
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2.Fact and Major Improvement based on Lessons

Milestone in the Reconstruction Process

I II III IV V VI VII
Early stage Final stage Remaining
Emergency Temporary Restoration
Before the of of problem-
response restoration period
earthquake reconstruct reconstruct solving
period period
ion ion period
Immediately Evacuation Temporary Transition to Full-scale After closing
Peacetime after the disaster center period housing period permanent house reconstruction Reconstruction HQ
Time period

Until the Immediately 1995 September April 1998 April 2000 March 2005
earthquake after the January 1995 through through March through through
～1994 disaster through March 1998 2000 February 2005 Present
Jan.1995 August

8 months 3 years
5 years
10 years
28 years
(1)(2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)
(1) January 17, 1995
(2) Establishment of the Disaster Countermeasures Headquarters
(3) Establishment of the National and Prefectural Reconstruction Headquarters
(4) Completion of building the temporary housing (8months)
(5) Start of application for disaster-reconstruction permanent housing
(6) Removal of temporary housing (the last one removed 5 years after)
(7) Closing of the National Reconstruction Headquarters (5 years)
(8) Closing of the Prefectural2023.03.16ⓒTomio
Reconstruction Saito
Headquarters (10 years)
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2.Fact and Major Improvement based on Lessons

Ⅰ Promoting self-preparedness for disasters

• Both governments and people were not well prepared.
• Lack of awareness for disasters resulted in vulnerability.
• Recognized the limitation of government’s capability.
• Recognized the importance of self-help and mutual aid.
• Increasing awareness of DRR leads to the facilitation of
preparedness.

After GHAE, awareness of prefectural residents has increased

However, in recent disasters, people and the government have
attitude of less prepared, especially in evacuation activities.
It is necessary to further promote ‘Culture of DRR’ to protect
lives in a sudden disasters 2023.03.16ⓒTomio Saito 24

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2.Fact and Major Improvement based on Lessons
Ⅱ Promotion of Mutual Aid
Utilization and Support of Volunteer Activities
 The greater the scale of the disaster, the longer for governments’ agencies to arrive.
 Through GHAE, the importance of mutual aid in communities with volunteers and voluntary
organizations was recognized.
 It is important for these mutual aid activities to be developed and organized in peacetime.
 In the GHAE, total of 1.38 million volunteers, showed their strength in providing such
services as, removal of debris, soup kitchens, transporting supplies, and cleaning.
However, there was no system for coordinating such
voluntary activities well.
 It was necessary to consider
Number of Survivors Rescued (total 35,000
- How to position voluntary resources in the total disaster
management. Government rescue:
- Effective and timely matching between needs and resources. Community
- Build a network among private sectors to meet a wide range of
needs.
2016 Kumamoto Earthquake Case ( April 16) --- Difficulties to receive volunteers just after
(1) On 16th, National Council of Social Welfare (JNCS) urged people to refrain from volunteering at this point25
because of new damage by after shocks.
(2) Kumamoto-city Council of Social Welfare postponed its plan to open a volunteer center on 16th.
(3) As of the 16th, Kumamoto Prefecture received many inquiries from people wanting to volunteer, but said,
“We can’t ensure safety or estimate the needs of relief, so we’re not ready to accept volunteers.”

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2.Fact and Major Improvement based on Lessons

Ⅲ Development of Laws and Systems related to DRR

Concept of the “Disaster Relief Act <Since 1947> ” and the newly enacted (Cabinet Office materials)

“Act on Livelihood Recovery Support (ALRS) for Disaster Victims” <Since 1998>
Background of Damage to Disaster Relief Act OVERVIEW of ALRS
houses <Cash Payment>
ALRS <Provide Materials>
Basic Pay :\1 mill for
Completely destroyed Additional Paymen
In 1995, public support for Completely Provision of
*Including demolition of Re-construct or
destroyed emergency
private property such as temporary partial destroyed houses purchase:
houses was not approved. housing \2 mill
Large-scale Basic Pay:\0.5 million Repair : \1 mill.･
However, owing to a partial for Large- scale partial Leasing:\0.5mil
destroyed
series of natural destroyed
disasters, the necessity of
the public support system Partial Temporary repair
destroyed of a house
for housing recovery was (Up to 595,000 yen) *Double payments: not allowed
recognized. Temporary houses were for those
Flooding who can not continue living, and
Hyogo Prefecture’s cash above the Provision Provision Debris removal
are not provided repair support
of daily of school (within 137,900
payments for livelihood floor necessities supplies yen)
recovery became a
breakthrough towards the
“ALRS enacted in 1998. Regardless In 1998, ALRC for Disaster
Opening Cooking
of damage of and Medical Search Treat of Victims was enacted.
to housing evacuation drinking care and and dead Burial <Cash Payment started>
shelters midwifery Rescue bodies
water

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2.Fact and Major Improvement based on Lessons

Ⅲ Development of Laws and Systems related to DRR

<The Act on Reconstruction from Large-Scale Disasters>
In order to realize smooth reconstruction, it is necessary to clarify the
definition of “Reconstruction,” and to develop a legal framework including
‘main subjects of reconstruction’, ‘division of responsibilities between the
national and local governments’, ‘content of support’, and ‘financial
allowances’.
“The Act on Reconstruction from Large-Scale Disasters” enacted
(June 21, 2013),

Special financial measures were taken for local governments

affected by the Great East Japan Earthquake (GEJE) in comparison
with the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake(GHAE)
The financial support system for the recovery of next great
earthquake is not clear.
Establishment of a financial support system of recovery for future
large-scale disasters is expected in order to formulate a pre-
recovery plan.
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2.Fact and Major Improvement based on Lessons

Ⅳ Improvement and Enhancement of Disaster

Response Capabilities of the Government
<Outline of Disaster Management System in Japan>
Designated public
institutions Overall Designated administrative agency
coordination National government Overall
Designated local administrative agency
Designated local public institutions coordination
and instructions Emergency Disaster Countermeasures (Agencies from the national government
(JR, NHK, electric power, others) and instructions
Headquarters and other agencies)
Request for Head: Prime Minister
Request for support
support Request for Notification, including
support Reporting Support and warning and dispatch
Self-Defense Forces instructions of personnel
Request for
Dispatch Prefectures support Other prefectures
request Prefectural Disaster Management Sending relief and
Headquarters dispatch of personnel
Police Headquarters Instruction Head: Governor
s Supply goods on
behalf
Reporting Support and
Order instructions Request for
Dispatch support
request Other municipalities
Municipalities Sending relief and dispatch
Municipal Disaster Management of personnel
Police station Headquarters
Mobilization
Head: Mayor
Dispatch Fire station and fire
request order brigade
Volunteer Voluntary DRR
organization
First aid First aid First aid
Relief Initial relief
First aid

Disaster area and disaster victim

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2.Fact and Major Improvement based on Lessons
Ⅳ Improvement and Enhancement of Disaster
Response Capabilities of the Government
<Examples of DRR Facilities in Hyogo after the GHAE>
Disaster Countermeasures Center 1F Development and operation of wide-area
disaster-management bases in Hyogo
Network of wide-area disaster-
management bases
(Functions of disaster prevention centers)
(1)Stockpiling of food and supplies
(2)Gathering and accommodation of
disaster response personnel
Tanba wide-area disaster-
(3)Collection and distribution of relief prevention base
goods

Situation at GHAE Hyogo Emergency

Management and Training
Center
(Activity base for the entire
prefecture in Miki City)
Tajima wide-area
Improvements disaster-management
after GHAE Disaster Management base
Center 1F
Hanshin wide-area disaster-
management base
Nishi-Harima wide-area
disaster-management base

Awaji wide-area disaster- Hyogo Prefectural Disaster

management base Management Center
(Command center for the
entire pref. in Kobe)

2023.03.16ⓒTomio Saito

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2.Fact and Major Improvement based on Lessons

Ⅴ Building disaster-resilient Cities

<Promoting People-friendly and
Environmentally-friendly Community Development>
 The disaster struck infants, the elderly and the disabled without any mercy, and many
elderly people were killed.
 Dister-resilient cities will lead to a community where vulnerable people can live safely
and securely.
 In urban reconstruction plan, there was a mind gap between the government and the
residents, but the establishment of the Town Development Council with town planning
expert led to mutual cooperation.
◼ The concept ‘Residents play a leading role in urban reconstruction’ is a key to a
successful urban reconstruction.
◼ However, it is not easy for residents to get together and work immediately after a
disaster.

It is important for local residents to work on community development on a regular basis,

and a government support to such community activities is also needed.

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2.Fact and Major Improvement based on Lessons

Ⅵ Enhancement and Promotion of DRR Education

<New DRR education>
Every time a disaster occurs, the importance of DRR education is emphasized,
but there are still differences in the approaches to DRR education among schools.
DRR education by growth stage is necessary as basic education.
With the aim of training teachers who are able to manage daily and emergency
DRR approach, school safety has become a mandatory part of the teaching
curriculum for future kindergarten, elementary, junior, senior high school teachers
since FY 2019.
Develop a scientific understanding Science, social
• Types of natural disasters and mechanisms of
studies, and other
Knowledge occurrence
• History of local disasters subjects
• Natural and social factors and future DRR system
Acquire DRR literacy Evacuation drill
• Method of evacuation Classroom activities
Skills • First aid Off campus program in
• Survival skills nature

How to be and how to live as a human being Moral and special

• A mind that respects life activities
Mind • A mind that values of mutual understanding and
interaction
• Participation in volunteer activities
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2.Fact and Major Improvement based on Lessons

Ⅶ Promotion of International DRR Cooperation

Sharing experiences and lessons internationally

◼Supporting the opening of the

Training at Hyogo Disaster
Bursa Disaster Education Center Management Center

Providing relief goods and

technical advises

Bursa DRR Education Center

Tsunami Archive, Indonesia
Donation projects Disaster Name Year Support Contents
Turkey, Izumit Eq 1999 Scholarships for disaster-affected children
Taiwan, Chi Chi Eq 1999 Reconstruction of elementary school
India, Gujarat Eq 2001 Seismic retrofitting of schools
Attacks of 911, 2001 2001 Providing higher education for victim’s children
Seismic retrofitting of schools, promotion of disaster education
Iran Bam Eq 2003
and seismic retrofitting technique training
Sumatra Eq & Tsunami 2004 School reconstruction, establishment of tsunami museum
China Sichuan Eq 2008 Hospital reconstruction
Typhoon Haiyan, Philp. 2013 Construction of the typhoon-resistant residence
Donation of \15,679K,(Support for building houses resistant to
Nepal Golka Eq 2015
typhoons), Experts dispatch

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 Ⅶ Promotion of International DRR Cooperation
Technical Advises for the Bursa Disaster Education Center (2013)

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 Contents
1. Introduction
2. Fact and major improvement based on lessons
learned from the Great Hanshin-Awaji
Earthquake (GHAE)
3. Preparedness For Future Disasters
• Transfer Passing on the Experiences and Lessons Learned
from the GHAE through DRI
• Phoenix Disaster Management System（PDMS)
• Enhancement of Emergency Management System of
Hyogo
• Union of Kansai Governments (UKG)
• Nankai Trough Mega Earthquake and Tsunami 34

• Tokyo Metropolitan Earthquake

KUISs：Kansai University of International Studies 34

3. Preparedness For Future Disasters
Passing on the Experiences and Lessons Learned
from the GHAE through DRI
Disaster Reduction and Human Renovation Institution (DRI) Since 2002

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 Outline of the DRI
Mission
Realizing a safe and secure civil society
• Cultivating a Disaster Resilient Culture, reducing social risk and
vulnerability
• Developing Policies for Disaster Risk Reduction

6 main function
4.Action Research on
DRR & Development
of DRR Professionals
1. Museum
Exhibits
3.Training of Disaster 6.Exchange and
Management Practitioners Networking
2.Collection & Preservation
of Primary Materials 5.HQs Assistance in
& Documents Disaster Response

Experiences and lessons from the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake

36
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Outline of DRI

Museum Exhibit at DRI

World’s Largest DRR Educational Museum
• 500,000+ visitors every year to learn Kobe Experiences
<Got 9.4mil. Visitors on 31 March 2023>
• 60% are school excursion students (Elementary, Junior high, High)
• 5% from abroad (Vietnam, Malaysia, Korea, Thailand, China, IDN, ･･･)
• 142 Volunteers (30: Story-tellers) support museum operation (20230

37
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Outline of DRI

Training of Local Governments Officials in charge of DM

Mayors, Governors
Top Forum
1day Local
Government
officials
Local
Government
officials
Advanced Intensive
2days 10people Courses
<2-day Practical
Management Map Exercise.>
Courses
Total 11,383* Expert; A & B
4 days 20people

Supporting
National Training
Basic in Tokyo (2013--)
4 days 40people
* As of Mar. 2023, Since 2002 38
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Outline of DRI

Disaster Reduction Alliance (DRA)

18 Int’l DRR Related Institutions in HAT Kobe
DRI (Dis.Red.& Human Ren.Inst.)

WHO Centre for Health Development

ADRC
(Asian Dis. Red. C)

OCHA
(Office for the Coord. of Hum. Affairs)

Kansai Int. C
Int’l Recovery Platform Education Center for Disaster Reduction
(ECDR), University of Hyogo
Hyogo Earthquake Engineering
Research Center (

Hyogo Eq. Memorial 21st Century Res. Inst. Hyogo Dis. Medical C.
Hyogo Institute for Traumatic Stress Red Cross Kobe Hospital
KUISs：Kansai University of International Studies 39
3. Preparedness For Future Disasters
Phoenix Disaster Management System（PDMS)
(Hyogo Pref. Disaster Information Network System)
Comprehensive Disaster Information Networking System in
Hyogo among the headquarter, cities, fire departments, police,
Self-Defense Forces, Coastal guard, life-line companies, with
emergency power generator

【Characteristic 1: Damage and Needs assessment function 】

• Based on actual earthquake
epicenter, magnitude, depth, ground
situation
• Quickly estimates number of
housing damage, victims, evacuees
• Calculate the necessary man-
power, relief goods (rice, water,
blanket, blue sheet, tents, etc.
• Quickly match the needs and
resources through stock DB
• Dispatch relief materials from
prefectural stock and cities stock
40

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 Phoenix Disaster Management System（PDMS)

Characteristics of PDMS
【Char 2 : Response Timeline】
Implement timelines for
information collection,
decision-making,
response orders

【Char 3 : Reporting from iPad, Smartphones】

【Char 4 : Linkage to the L-alert: Disaster Information Sharing System 】

L-shaped Data
telop 41 Broadcasting
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3. Preparedness For Future Disasters
Enhancement of Emergency Management System of Hyogo

Hyogo Prefectural Emergency

Management & Training Cente

Hyogo Disaster Management Headquarter Bld.

E-Defense

Miki Earthquake Disaster Management Park (202ha)

South Stand North Stand

East Stand

Storage warehouse (under the east stand of the athletic stadium 5,000㎡)

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Enhancement of Emergency Management System of Hyogo

Development of Disaster Management Bases

Networking of DM Bases
1)Stock of Food/relief materials
2)Gathering and camping of
Disaster response teams
3)Collection and delivery of
relief materials Tamba DM Base

Miki Prefectural DM Base

（for all Hyogo Pref.）

Tajima DM Base

Hanshin DM Base
Harima-west DM Base

Awaji DM Base

Headquarter in KOBE
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Enhancement of Emergency Management System of Hyogo

E-DefenseThe world’s largest 3-dimensional full-scale seismic testing facility

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<E-Defense>
Shaking tests leading to seismic safety structures
Comparative examination between
reinforced and as is (built before 1981)

Wooden house comparison Movie : https://youtu.be/k10TxK1Ksj4

Shaking test of high-rise building (Kobe Shinbun, CM):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XhjzccWo8I
Copy Machine :https://youtu.be/bEXgls_PenE Shaking test of high-rise building (Kobe Shinbun, CM):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XhjzccWo8I

Office : https://youtu.be/ihjDrg4uywA

KUISs：Kansai University of International Studies 45

3. Preparedness For Future Disasters

Union of Kansai Governments (UKG)

【Outline of the UKG】 Kyoto C

◼ Members Tottori P
12（88 Prefectures,
Prefectures, Kyoto P

4 Designated Cities ) Hyogo P Shiga P

◼ Collaborating Prefectures Osaka C

２（Fukui, Mie） Kobe C
Osaka P
◼ Established
Sakai C

1st December, 2010

Nara P
(7 Pref)
Tokushima P
◼ Head: Governor of Hyogo Wakayama P

<Hyogo is in charge of Region-wide DRR＞

Main aim of UKG is establishment of a wide-area disaster management

mutual support system for the Nankai Trough Mega Eq. and Tsunami

3 months after its establishment, the Great East Japan Eq. occurred
KUISs：Kansai University of International Studies 46
UKG’s Support for the Great East Japan Eq. (2011.3.11)

⚫ 6 Governors had a quick

F2F meeting in Kobe on
Iwate P
13 March.
⚫ Immediately decided the
Miyagi P “Counterpart Method
Support” for 3 heavily
damaged prefectures
without any pre-
negotiation in 3 minutes or
so !!
⚫ Supported continuously
Tokukshima

Hyogo
Tottori

Evaluated as a very
effective, timely and
Osaka P needs-matching good-
Wakayama teamwork support
KUISs：Kansai University of International Studies 47
 UKG’s Support for the Great East Japan Eq

Counterpart Method Support

Team MIYAGI IWATE

(Hyogo, Tottori, Tokushima)

Tottori P MIYAGI

Kyoto P Team FUKUSHIMA

Hyogo P
Shiga P (Kyoto, Shiga)
Kobe C FUKUSHIMA

Osaka P

Tokushima P
Wakayama P Team IWATE
(Osaka, Wakayama)

KUISs：Kansai University of International Studies 48

3. Preparedness For Future Disasters
Nankai Trough Mega Earthquake and Tsunami<Worst scenario L2>
Damage Estimation Total Death : 323,000

◆ Shizuoka Pref.
109,000
◆ Aichi Pref.
319,000
23,000 Max33m/2min
388,000
Max22m/9min
Anticipated Epicenter Area
Main Damage Estimates
◆ Kochi Pref. Deaths: 323,000
49,000 Bld Collapse :2,386,000
◆ Miyazaki Pref. ◆ Mie Pref. Waste: 310,000mil. Ton
239,000
Death 42,000 Road:41,000 spots
Max34m/3min 43,000
Railway: 19,000spots
Bｌd Collapse 83,000 239,000 WaterCut:34.4mil.people
Tsunami Max17m/16min Max27m/4min Blackout: 27.1mil.houses
TeleCom: 9.3mil.circuit

Map: Nikkei XTECH https://xtech.nikkei.com/atcl/nxt/mag/ncr/18/00048/030100001/

KUISs：Kansai University of International Studies 49

Nankai Trough Mega Earthquake and Tsunami<Worst scenario L2>
• Mw:9.1 / Max JMA Level: 7
• Total Death : 323,000 (Hyogo:29,100 )
• Collapsed Buildings: 2,380,000 (Hyogo:38,500)
• Highest tsunami : 34m<Kuroshio, Kochi> (Hyogo:8m)
• Amount of Damage : \220Trilion/ $1.6Trillion
• Stranded commuter: 10.6million (Hyogo:590,000)

Nankai Eq. Tonankai Tokai

Keicho (M7.9)
Hoei(M8.4 )
5,038 dead
Ansei(M8.4 )
2,656 dead Tsunami flood Estimation(Hyogo)
<Flood water depth>
169 5.0 m or more
Showa(M7.9, 1,251dead)
years 4.0 m or more -Less than 5.0 m
79 years Showa(M8.1, 1,330dead)
2023 77 years 3.0 m or more -Less than 4.0 m
2.0 m or more -Less than 3.0 m
1.0 m or more -Less than 2.0 m
 兵庫県南海トラフ巨大地震・津波被害想定（H26.6） 0.3 m or more -Less than 1.0 m

KUISs：Kansai University of International Studies Less than 0.3 m 50

Nankai Trough Mega Earthquake and Tsunami<Worst scenario L2>

Hyogo Nankai Trough Eq. Action Program

+
Reduce Damage by 90 %, if we could do----

▸ Seawall：Gate closed, not broken by overflow

▸ Quick evacuation rate：70％ → 100％
▸ Retrofitting of houses：85.4％ → 97％
▸ Fixing furniture：31.2％ → 100％
▸ Quick fire extinguishing：0％ → 23.8～68.4％ etc.
Amagasaki Sea lock gate

Then, Damage will be greatly reduced

Now After Reduction rate
Innundation area 6,141ha → 2,142ha ▲65.1％pt

Number of dead About 29,000 → About 400 ▲98.6％pt

Completely collapsed About 37,000 → About 12,000 ▲67.6％pt

Number of evacuees About 169,000 → 100,6000

About ▲37.3％pt

Direct Damage 約5.5兆円 → 約3.2兆円 ▲41.8％pt

KUISs：Kansai University of International Studies 51

 3. Preparedness For Future Disasters
Tokyo Metropolitan Earthquake: Damage estimation (March 2022)
○By Tokyo central south Eq., area with JMA L6 Distribution of seismic intensity, Tokyo Central South Eq.
or higher extends to about 60% of the ward.
○194,431 buildings will be damaged, and 6,148
people killed.
As the number of buildings adopting
earthquake resilient technology and fire-
resistant construction has increased,
less damage is anticipated (in 2022) than
was expected in 2012.
2012 estimation 2022 estimation
(Bay North Eq. ) (Southern Central Eq. )
6,148
3,666
2,482
93,435

83,489
2,482
194,431
82,199
112,232
2,990,000
52
4,530,000
KUISs：Kansai University of International Studies 52
 Tokyo Metropolitan Earthquake
Damage reduction effects by DRR measures
Subject Current 2022 Advanced 1 Advanced 2
Housing Retrofitting 100% 100%
Promotion of Seismic Retrofitting 92% (1981 Standard)
(2000 Standard)
Promotion
of Seismic ○ Number of deaths
Retrofitting and destroyed
buildings decreased △80％
by 3~4% from Death △30-40％
2012 estimate. 5,100 △60％
○ Further promotion 3,200
could reduce the Collapsed 1,200
81,000
number of deaths 110,000
500
and building ３2,000
14,000
damage.
2012Estimate 2022 Estimate 1981 Standard 2000 Standard

Subject Current 2022 Advanced 1 Advanced 2

Promotion of Furniture Fixing 57.3% 75% 100%

○ Number of deaths
Promotion decreased by 10%
of from 2012 Estimate
△10％ △80％
Furniture ○ Further promotion Death △40％
Fixing could reduce the
260 240
number of deaths.
140
40
2012Estimate 2022 Estimate Advanced 1 Advanced 1
KUISs：Kansai University of International Studies 53
Tokyo Metropolitan Earthquake

Damage reduction effects by DRR measures

Subject Current 2022 Advanced 1 Advanced 2
(1) Reduction of fires by electricity 8.3% 25% 50%

(2) Improvement of initial fire extinguish 36.6% 60% 90%

Promotion  Number of deaths and △70％

of fire burned buildings decreased
△30-40％ △70％
prevention by 3~4% from 2012
estimate. Death
measures
4,100 2,500
 Further promotion could
reduce the number of Burnt
deaths and building houses 120,000
damage. 200,000 800
300
40,000 14,000
2012Estimate 2022 Estimate Advanced 1 Advanced 1

KUISs：Kansai University of International Studies 54

 Preparedness For Future Disasters

By promoting various DRR measures

against future disasters,
damage could be greatly reduced.

55

KUISs：Kansai University of International Studies 55

 Masahiko MURATA

Research fellow, Disaster Reduction and Human Renovation Inst. (DRI)

Councilor, Asian Disaster Reduction Center (ADRC)
KUISs：Kansai University of International Studies 56
 <Reference Movies>
【Digest version】Nankai Trough Earthquake -Preparing for the next earthquake that may occur – 2’28”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VgdFGNlDl8E

【 Nankai Trough Earthquake】Full Ver. Cabinet Office, Japan 17’26” Cabinet Office
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zxcxG6rCzM4&t=127s

Nankai Trough Earthquake -Preparing for the next earthquake that may occur - Cabinet Office
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jyhM2YtHc-Q 19’06”

Guide to disaster management measures in Japan <CAO>

(technologies, know‐how, infrastructure, institutions etc. )
https://www.bousai.go.jp/kaigirep/catalog/pdf/Guide_to_Japanese_tech_EN.pdf

Earthquake Early Warning <Kumamoto Eq. 20160414>

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fe0UV94Os_k

You don't know the huge earthquake in Japan. / M9.1 simulation / Private site 4’10”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8jNdJrjRmjo

3.11 East Japan earthquake/ Real-time shaking

(strong motion monitor, moment, NHK news, maximum seismic intensity 7) Private site 5’50”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ErqM10AXkOQ

Tokyo Metropolitan Earthquake (JP) CAO （13’18”）

https://wwwc.cao.go.jp/lib_012/syuto_all.html

Damage estimation of the Tokyo Metropolitan Eq.2022

https://www.bousai.metro.tokyo.lg.jp/_res/projects/default_project/_page_/001/021/571/20220525/n/01n.pdf
57

KUISs：Kansai University of International Studies 57