Chaper 4

Introduction

A crucial flashpoint in Middle Eastern geopolitics is the tense relationship between Israel and Lebanon,
which has been shaped by decades of conflict and is mediated by Hezbollah's armed resistance. This
chapter looks at the significant effects that Israel's political and military tactics against Hezbollah have
had on both the internal stability of Lebanon and the larger regional security framework. Israeli
operations have changed since the 2006 Lebanon War, ranging from massive invasions to targeted
attacks and clandestine operations, all of which have had a unique impact on Lebanon's precarious
political stability and humanitarian circumstances. The time after the 2023 Gaza conflict, which
rekindled tensions along the Israel-Lebanon border and revealed the vulnerability of the current
deterrence agreements, is the main focus of the analysis.

This analysis revolves around the paradox of Hezbollah's dual function as a domestically legitimized
resistance movement and a destabilizing Iranian proxy. Although tactically effective, Israel's targeted
killings of Hezbollah leaders and airstrikes on weapons storage facilities have unintentionally reinforced
the group's image as Lebanon's protector while further undermining state institutions. Meanwhile, the
spillover effects into Syria, where Israel frequently targets Iranian supply lines, show how regional actors
are increasingly drawn to localized conflicts. Additionally, the chapter evaluates the shortcomings of
international peacekeeping operations, specifically the limited mandate of UNIFIL in southern Lebanon,
which has not been able to stop the ongoing escalation of hostilities.

This chapter sheds light on the perilous feedback loop between Israeli security operations and the
vulnerability of the Lebanese state by examining military, political, and humanitarian aspects. It makes
the case that existing strategies, such as military deterrence or clumsy diplomacy, only treat the
symptoms of conflict while the underlying causes continue to exist. The results have immediate
ramifications for decision-makers who want to stop another catastrophic conflict from spreading
throughout the Middle East.

4.1 Israel’s Military Actions and Their Direct Consequences

One of the most unstable flashpoints in the Middle East is the ongoing war between Israel and
Hezbollah in Lebanon, which has significant geopolitical, economic, and humanitarian ramifications.
Since their first significant conflict in the 2006 Lebanon War, Israel's military operations against
Hezbollah have changed dramatically, resulting in a recurring cycle of violence that keeps the region
unstable. The 2006 34-day war established a risky precedent by showing how easily small-scale conflicts
could turn into major wars. Israel launched a devastating air campaign that targeted not only Hezbollah
strongholds but also Lebanon's civilian infrastructure after Hezbollah militants crossed the Israeli border,
killing multiple soldiers and capturing two more.

Lebanon's infrastructure and society were severely damaged in the wake of the 2006 war.
Approximately one million people were displaced from their homes, and more than 1,000 civilians in
Lebanon were killed. The systematic destruction of Beirut's power plants, main highways, and
international airport severely damaged the nation's economy and delayed development by years.
Hezbollah emerged politically stronger in Lebanon, able to assert that it had "resisted" Israel's military
might, even though Israel was able to weaken some of its military capabilities. This contradictory result
highlights the intricate dynamics of asymmetric warfare in the area, where political gains are frequently
not achieved despite military victories.

In recent years, particularly following the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack on Israel, tensions along the
Lebanon-Israel border have reached their highest levels since 2006. The Israeli military has conducted
near-daily airstrikes against suspected Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon, while Hezbollah has
responded with rocket and missile attacks targeting northern Israel. A particularly dangerous escalation
occurred in January 2024 when Israel assassinated a senior Hezbollah commander in a precision strike in
Beirut's southern suburbs. This operation marked a significant expansion of Israel's targeting policy,
demonstrating its willingness to strike high-value targets deep inside Lebanese territory, despite the risk
of provoking a wider war.

For Lebanese citizens residing close to the border, the humanitarian effects of these continuous
hostilities have been catastrophic. Residents of southern Lebanon have fled northward to avoid the
fighting, leaving entire villages largely deserted. Due to unexploded ordnance and munitions
contamination, agricultural lands—the economic backbone of southern Lebanon—have become
unusable, and schools and hospitals have been damaged or completely destroyed. Lebanon's economic
crisis, which has caused the currency to lose more than 90% of its value since 2019, has been made
worse by the conflict. The majority of Lebanese now only receive a few hours of state-provided power
per day due to even more severe electricity shortages caused by the destruction of power plants and
electrical infrastructure.

The conflict's disputed Shebaa Farms area continues to be a flashpoint. Hezbollah uses this small,
mountainous region, which Israel has occupied since 1967 but which Lebanon claims, as a constant
excuse for its armed resistance. There have been regular firefights in the region, with Israel retaliating
with artillery barrages and airstrikes and Hezbollah firing rockets and anti-tank missiles at Israeli
positions. When Israel attacked Hezbollah targets in the Bekaa Valley, which is located far from the
customary conflict zone close to the border, in March 2024, the conflict took a concerning turn. In
response, Hezbollah launched over 60 rockets at northern Israel, demonstrating the group's increasing
missile capabilities and readiness to escalate when its red lines are crossed.

Both sides face a perilous paradox in the current circumstance. Israel must deter Hezbollah without
starting a full-scale conflict in which thousands of rockets could be fired at its cities. Despite having an
impressive arsenal of an estimated 150,000 rockets and missiles, Hezbollah is aware that a major conflict
would probably cause Lebanon to experience unheard-of levels of destruction, which could damage its
political standing. In an effort to accomplish their goals without resorting to full-scale conflict, both sides
have used carefully measured violence. However, as was almost the case in January 2024 after the
Hezbollah commander was assassinated, this delicate balance could be easily upset by a mistake or
unforeseen circumstances.