Madhab P.

Bhatta

Network Analysis
1 Introduction:
Network analysis is a technique for planning, scheduling, controlling and monitoring the
progress of large and complex projects, which includes large number of activities (tasks).
Hence, network analysis is a technique of sequencing problems, which is concerned with
minimizing the total completion time of the project, over all cost of the project and so on.
Project is a combination of interrelated activities, which must be executed in a certain order
before the entire task can be completed. A large and complex project which is interrelated
with a number of activities requires more manpower, machine and materials. So, it is not
possible for the management to make and execute an optimum schedule just by institution
based on the organizational capabilities and work experience. So, to meet the objective (goal)
of the systematic planning, we use two methods in network analysis.
i) Critical Path Method (CPM)
ii) Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)

i) Critical Path Method (CPM):

Critical path method (CPM) was developed by Dupont and Spary Rend Corporation in 1957.
CPM is effectively used for the planning, scheduling and controlling of commercial projects
and development. CPM networks are generally used for repetitive type of project or for those
project for which fairly accurate estimate of time for the completion of each activity can be
made and also cost estimation can be made with fair degree of accuracy. However, it is not
suitable for the research and development projects. CPM includes the concept of both cost
and completion time for each activity of the project in planning and controlling process.
CPM is basically concerned with obtaining the cost and completion time of a project.
ii) Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT):
Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) was developed by Booz, Allen and
Hamilton, a management consulting firm, in 1958. PERT is a technique for the planning,
scheduling and controlling the project. PERT is used most frequently in the research and
development type projects. PERT system is preferred for those projects of operations which
are of non repetitive nature or for those projects in which correct time determination can not
be made, where we use probability to estimate the time required to perform each activity and
whole project. PERT system is applicable in projects, where much of their design and
construction or production requires new developments in materials and technology.

2 Basic terms which are essential to be familiar with the network diagram
are defined as:
a. Activity: An activity is a physically identifiable part (task) of a project, which
consume time and resources to complete a particular part of the entire project. In
network diagram, an activity is represented by an arrow, the tail of an arrow
represents the start and the head represents the end (finish) of an activity. The
activities can be further classified into the following three categories.
b. Predecessor activity: An activity, which must be completed before one or more
other activities start, is known as predecessor activity.

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c. Successor activity: An activity, which started immediately after one or more

predecessor activities have completed, is known as successor activity.
d. Dummy activity: An activity, which does not consume time and resource, is known
as dummy activity. A dummy activity in the network diagram is added only to
represent the given precedence relationships among activities of the project. A
dummy activity is depicted by dotted line in the network diagram. Dummy activity is
needed when
i. -Two or more parallel activities in a project have same head and tail
events.
e. Two or more activities have some (but not all) of their immediately predecessor
activities are common.
f. Event (node): The beginning and ending points of an activity are called events or
nodes. Events are represented by a numbered circle. The head event say j th event has
always a higher number than the tail event say ith i.e. j  i

3 Rules for constructing the network diagram:

Following are some of the rules, which have to be followed while constructing a network
diagram.
1) In a network diagram, arrows represent activities and circles represent the events. The
length of an arrow has no significance meaning.
2) Each activity should be represented by only one arrow and must start and end in a
circle. The tail of an activity represents the start and head of an activity represent the
completion of an activity.
3) The event numbered 1 denotes start of the project and is called initial event. All
activities emerging from event 1 should not be preceded by any other activity. Event
carrying the highest number denotes the completion of the project. A network should
have only one initial event and only one terminal event.
4) The general rule for numbering the event is that the number at an activity’s head
should always be larger than that at its tail.
5) An activity must be uniquely identified by its starting and completion event, which
implies that
a) An event number should not get repeated or duplicated
b) Two activities should not be identified by the same completion events and
same starting event.
c) Activities must be represented either by their symbols or by the corresponding
ordered pair of starting –completion events.
6) The logical sequence between activities must follow the following rules
a) An event can not occur until all the incoming activities into it have been
completed.
b) An Activity can not start unless all the preceding activities on which it
depends have been completed.
c) Though a dummy activity does not consume either any resource or time, but it
must follow the rules (a) and (b).

4 Critical path:
The longest path through the network is called Critical path, which consists of the sequence
of those events and connected activities that requires the minimum time for the completion of
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the project. The length of the critical path determines the minimum time required for the
completion of the whole project. The activities associated with this path are called critical
activities and remaining paths in the network are called non critical path and activities
associated with this non critical path are called non critical activities. In the network diagram,
there may be more than one critical path. Note that, slack time for those activities which lies
in the critical path is always zero.

5 Calculation of activity time:

1) Earliest start time (ES): The earliest start time for an activity is the earliest possible
time that an activity can start on the assumption that all activities preceding to it
started at the earliest possible time. The earliest start time (ES) for all the first activity
is always equal to zero.
2) Earliest finish time (EF): The earliest finish time (EF) for an activity is the earliest
possible time that an activity is expected to finish. It is the sum of the earliest start
time (ES) and the estimated time (te) to perform the concerning activity. i.e.
EF = ES + te
3) Latest finish time (LF): The latest finish time (LF) for an activity is the latest
possible time that an activity is expected to finish without delaying the project beyond
its deadline assuming that all the subsequent activities are performed as planned.
The latest finish time (LF) for all the last activity is equal to the largest earliest finish
time (EF) among all the last activity.
4) Latest start time (LS): The latest start time (LS) for an activity is the latest possible
time that an activity is expected to start.
The latest start time for an activity is the difference between the latest finish time
(LF) and the estimated time (te) of the activity to be performed. i.e.
LS = LF – te.

6 Method of obtaining the earliest start time (ES) and earliest finish time
(EF):
The earliest start time and earliest finish time are obtained by using the following
systematic steps.
1) Take the earliest start time (ES) for all the first activity equal to zero.
2) Add estimated time (te) to perform the first activity to its earliest start time (ES) to
obtain the earliest finish time (EF) for the first activity.
3) Take any activity for which all of its immediate preceding activities have ES and EF
values. ES of such an activity is equal to largest of the EF values of its immediately
preceding activities.
Proceed in this way from left to right to find the ES and EF of all the activities in the
network. This process of finding ES and EF for all activities is called the forward pass
method.

7 Method of obtaining the latest start time (LS) and latest finish time (LF):
The latest start time (LS) and latest finish time (LF) are obtained by using the following
systematic steps.
1) Start at the end of the network diagram.

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2) Take the LF for all the last activities equal to the largest EF among all the last
activities.
3) Subtract the estimated time (t e) to perform the last activity from its LF to obtain its
LS
4) Take any activity for which all of its immediate succeeding activities have LS and LF
values.
5) The LF of such an activity is equal to the smallest of the LS values of its immediate
succeeding activities.
6) Proceed in this manner from right to left of find the LS and LF of all activities in the
network. This process of finding LS and LF for all activities is called the backward
pass method.

8 Slack time (Total Float):

The difference between the earliest time and latest time of an activity is called the slack time.
Slack time is defined as the time span by which the starting or finishing of an activity can be
delayed without delaying the completion of the project.
Slack time = LS – ES
OR Slack time = LF – EF
The slack time for all the critical activities is always equal to zero.

9 Time estimates of an activity:

In PERT network, there is uncertainty about the times required for the completion of various
activities. Hence three time estimates are made.
1) Optimistic time (t0 or a): This is the shortest possible time in which an activity can
be completed under ideal conditions i.e. shortest possible time required for the
completion of an activity is called optimistic time and is denoted by to or a.
2) Pessimistic time (tp or b): The maximum time (longest time) that an activity will
take is called pessimistic time and is denoted by tp or b.
3) Most likely time estimate ( tm or m): The most likely time is the time that an activity
will take if executed under normal condition and most likely time lies between
optimistic and pessimistic time and it is denoted by tm or m.

Expected time or estimated time (te or µ):

In case of PERT network, estimated time required to complete an activity is obtained by
using the following relation.
te =
Where, a = optimistic time
b = pessimistic time
m = most likely time
Standard deviation and variance:
 Standard deviation of an activity ( ) =
The square of the standard deviation is called variance and it is denoted by .

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 Variance of the time required to complete whole project is

calculated by using the following relations
= …………….. (1)
Positive square root of the variance is called standard deviation. Where 1, 2 … n are
standard deviation of the first; second ……….and n th activity lies on the critical path
respectively.

10 Probability in PERT Analysis:

Method of obtaining probability of the project completion time

By using the normal distribution (normal table), we can obtain the probability of the project
completion time. The standard normal variable is defined as
Z=
Where
TS is the schedule time or given time
µ or te is the length of the critical path or estimated time required for the completion of the
project.
is the standard deviation of the whole project and it is calculated by using the above
relation (1).
 Note
a. When Z is positive, the probability of completing the
project in time is more than 50%
b. When Z is negative, the probability of completing the project in time is less
than 50%
c. When Z is zero, the probability of completing the project in
time is fifty- fifty percent.
Problems:
1. Given the following project characteristics, construct a network diagram.
a) Activity A B C D E F
Predecessors - - A B, C D A

b) Activity A B C D E F G
Predecessors - - A B B C,D E

c)
Activity A B C D E F G H I
Predecessors - - - A B C D,E B H

d) Activity A B C D E F G
Predecessors - A A B, C C D E, F

e) Activity A B C D E F G
Predecessors - - A, B A, B C C, D F

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f) Activity 1–2 1–3 2–4 3–4 2–5 4-5

Name of activity A B C D E F
g)
Activity 1-2 1-3 1-4 2-5 3-6 3-7 4-6 5-8 6-9 7-8 8-9
Name of activity A B C D E F G H I J K
h)
Activity A B C D E F G H I J K L
Predecessors - - A A B B C, D E C,D G, H F J, K

2. Given the following project characteristics, construct a PERT network.

Activities A B C D E F G
Predecessors None A A B,C C D E,F

[Link] a PERT network for the following project

activities.
Activities A B C D E F G
Predecessors None None A,B A,B C C,D F

4. A project has the following characteristics:

Activities A B C D E F
Predecessors None A A B C D
Time 6 8 4 9 2 7
Construct a PERT network and compute ES, LS and slack time for each activity,
find the critical path.

5. Draw a network diagram with the following data and identify the critical path and critical
activities. Construct a time chart and identify scheduling flexibility.
Activity A B C D E F G H I
Immediate predecessor - - - A B C D,E B F,H
Expected time in days 3 5 4 2 3 9 8 7 9

6. Determine the critical path for the project network from the following information. All the
duration is in days.
Activity A B C D E F G H
Immediate predecessor - - A A B,C B,C D,E D
Expected time in days 5 6 3 8 2 11 12 1

7. A project plan is as follows.

Activity A B C D E F G
Immediate predecessor none none A B B D E
Expected time in days 4 9 3 8 7 2 5

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i) Determine the network for this project.

ii) What do you mean by slack? Calculate the slack for each activities of the
given project.
iii) Determine the critical path and explain its importance.

8. Information on the activities required for a project is as follows.

Activity A B C D E F G H I J K
Immediate predecessor - - - A B B B C D,E F,H G,I
Expected time in days 2 7 8 3 6 10 4 6 2 5 6
Draw the network diagram and calculate the earliest start (ES), earliest finish (EF),
latest start (LS) and latest finish (LF) times for the activities and then find the critical
activities.
9. A Company has the following activity information.
Activity A B C D E F
Immediate predecessor - A A B C B,E
Expected time in days 4 5 4 3 3 4
i) Draw the project network.
ii) Find the critical path and the project duration.
10. For the following project draw a network diagram and identify the critical path
Activities A B C D E F G H I J
Predecessors - - A A B B E F C,D G,H
Time in days 5 4 6 3 3 6 2 5 8 5

11. For the following information, draw a network diagram and identify the critical path and
expected project completion time.
Activities A B C D E F G H I J
Predecessors - - A A D B B C H,E,F G
Time 4 7 4 3 2 1 6 5 8 9

12. Draw the network diagram with the following data and calculate the earliest start time
and earliest finish time also calculate the slack time and find the critical path.
Activity A B C D E F G H
Immediate predecessor - A A B B,C E D,F G
Expected time in days 3 5 4 2 3 9 8 7

13. Draw the network diagram with the following data and find the critical path and critical
activities. What is the minimum time required to complete the project?
Activity A B C D E F G
Immediate predecessor none none A,B A,B C C,D F
Expected time in days 3 5 4 2 3 9 8
14. Draw a PERT network diagram and identify the critical path, critical activities, non –
critical paths and non critical activities for the following information.
Activity A B C D E F G H I
Immediate predecessor - - - A B C D,E B F,H
Expected time in days 3 5 4 2 3 9 8 7 9
15. Construct the PERT diagram for a project with following activities.
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Activities A B C D E F G H I J
Predecessor - - A,B B A C E,F D,F G,H I
Days 4 7 4 3 2 1 6 5 8 9
i) Find the critical path and expected project completion time.
16. A project plan is as follows.
Activity A B C D E F G
Immediate predecessor none none A B B D E
Expected time in days 4 9 3 8 7 2 5
i) Determine the network for this project.
ii) Calculate the slack for each activities of the given project.
iii) Determine the critical path and explain its importance.
17. A Company has the following activity information.
Activity A B C D E F
Immediate predecessor - A A B C B,E
Expected time in days 4 5 4 3 3 4
i) Draw the project network.
ii) Find the critical path and the project duration.
18. Draw a project network and identify the critical path and project length of the project
having nine time activities, whose time estimated are listed below.
Activity (i-j) 1-2 1-3 1-4 2-5 3-5 4-6 5-6 6-7 5-7
Optimistic time 1 3 2 1 3 2 4 6 3
Most likely time 1 5 2 1 6 5 6 8 7
Pessimistic time 7 7 8 1 9 8 14 10 11
19. The chief manager of Nepal Bank Limited has compiled list of major activities that will
be required to complete the project with the following time estimates.
Activity (i-j) 1-2 2-3 2-4 3-6 6-7 4-5 4-7 5-7
Optimistic time 2 6 6 4 1 3 4 2
Most likely time 4 8 9 4 3 4 8 3
Pessimistic time 6 10 12 4 5 5 12 4
a. Draw the network diagram and indicate its critical path.
b. What is the expected duration to complete the project?
c. Calculate the variance and standard deviation of the project length.
20. Construct the following project.
Activities Preceding Time estimates(Days)
activities Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic
A - 3 6 9
B - 2 5 8
C A 2 4 6
D B 2 3 10
E B 1 3 11
F C,D 4 6 8
G E 1 5 15
i) Draw the network diagram for the project, identify the critical path, and calculate slack
time.
ii) Determine the probability that the project will be completed by 14 days and by 19 days.

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23. Construct the PERT network , indicate the critical path from the following information.
Activities Preceding Optimistic time Pessimistic time Most likely time
activity in days in days in days
A Noon 5 20 10
B A 10 30 20
C A 10 50 30
D B 30 50 40
E C 20 40 30
F C 30 70 50
G D,E 40 60 50
H F 60 80 70
I G,H 20 60 40
J G,H 50 80 60
K I 10 30 20
L J 30 70 50
Find the probability that the project will be completed 10 days before the mean time.
24. A project consists of seven independent activities is to be analyzed by using PERT. The
following information is given (time estimates are in days);
Activity Predecessor Durations in days
Most likely Optimistic Pessimistic
A - 5 1 3
B - 10 9 11
C A 5 5 11
D B 3 2 4
E D, A 2 2 2
F C,E 16 10 16
G F 18 18 36

a) The probability that the project will be finished within the 55 days.
b) The probability that the project will be completed at least 7 days prior to the expected
time.
c) What should be the scheduled completion time for the probability of completion to be
95%?
25. Following table lists the activity of a project along with their time estimates.
Activity Predecessor Most likely (tm) Optimistic (to) Pessimistic (tp)
A - 5 4 6
B - 12 8 16
C A 5 4 12
D B 3 1 5
E D,A 2 2 2
F B 6 4 8
G C,E,F 14 10 18
H G 20 18 34
The scheduled completion date for this project is 60 days. Draw the network diagram and
find.
a. The standard deviation for each activity.

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b. The standard deviation of the whole project.

c. The probability that the project will be finished within the scheduled date.
d. The probability that the project will be completed at least 4 days prior to the
expected time.
What should be the scheduled completion time for the probability of completion to be
90%.

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