Probability
Chapter 2
AXIOMS OF PROBABILITY
1. Sample Space and Events
2. Axioms of Probability
3. Some Simple Propositions
4. Sample Spaces Having Equally Likely Outcomes
Probability
1. Sample Space and Events
Sample Space
• The sample space S of an experiment (whose outcome is uncertain) is
the set of all possible outcomes of the experiment.
Example 2.1: Determining the sex of a newborn child in which case
S = {boy, girl}
Example 2.2: If the experiment consists of flipping two coins, then the
sample space is
S = {(H;H), (H;T), (T;H), (T;T)}
Probability
1. Sample Space and Events
Sample Space
Example 2.3: If the outcome of an experiment is the order of finish in a
race among the 7 horses having post positions 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7,
then
S = {all 7! permutations of (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7)}
Example 2.4: If the experiment consists of measuring the lifetime (in
years) of your pet then
S = 𝑥; 0 ≤ 𝑥 < ∞
Example 2.5: If the experiment consists of tossing two dice, then
S = {(i, j): i, j = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Probability
1. Sample Space and Events
Event
• Any subset E of the sample space S is known as an event; i.e. an event
is a set consisting of possible outcomes of the experiment.
• If the outcome of the experiment is in E, then we say that E has
occurred.
Probability
1. Sample Space and Events
Event
In Example 2.1: The event E = {boy} is the event that the child is a boy.
In Example 2.2: The event E = {(H,T), (T,T)} is the event that a tail
appears on the second coin.
In Example 2.3: The event E = {all outcomes in S starting with a 7} is the
event that the race was won by horse 7.
In Example 2.4: The event E = {x : 3 <x<= 5.5} is the event that your pet
will live more than 3 years but will not live more than 5 years and 6
months.
In Example 2.5: Let E be the event that the sum is 6, then E=?
Probability
1. Sample Space and Events
Union of Events
• Given events E and F, E ∪ F is the set of all outcomes either in E or F
or in both E and F. E ∪ F occurs if either E or F occurs. E ∪ F is the
union of events E and F.
• In Example 2.2, if E = { (H, H), (H, T)} is the event that the first coin
lands heads, and F = { (T, H), (H, H)} is the event that the second coin
lands heads, then E ∪ F= {(H,H),(H,T),(T,H)} is the event that at least
one of the coins lands heads and thus will occur provided that both
coins do not land tails.
• If 𝐸𝑖 𝑖≥1 are events then the union is denoted ∪∞ 𝑖=1 𝐸𝑖 it is the event
which consists of all the outcomes in 𝐸𝑖 𝑖≥1
Probability
1. Sample Space and Events
Intersection of Events
• Given events E and F, E ∩ F is the set of all outcomes which are both
in E and F. E ∩ F is also denoted EF
• In Example 2.2: If we have E = {(H,H) , (H,T), (T,H)} (event that one H at
least occurs) and F = {(H,T), (T,H) , (T,T)} (event that one T at least
occurs) then E ∩ F = {(H,T), (T,H)} is the event that one H and one T
occur.
• If 𝐸𝑖 𝑖≥1 are events then the intersection is denoted ∩∞ 𝑖=1 𝐸𝑖 : it is the
event which consists of the outcomes which are in all of the events
𝐸𝑖 𝑖≥1 .
Probability
1. Sample Space and Events
Notation and Properties
In Example 2.5, let
• E be the event that the sum of the dice is 6
• F be the event that the sum is 7
Then the event EF does not contain any outcomes and hence could not
occur. To give such an event a name, we shall refer to it as the null
event and denote it by ∅.
If EF = ∅, then E and F are said to be mutually exclusive.
Probability
1. Sample Space and Events
Notation and Properties
ത referred to
• For any event E, we define the new event 𝐸 𝑐 (or ~E or 𝐸),
as the complement of E, to consist of all outcomes in the sample
space S that are not in E. Hence we have
𝐸 ∪ 𝐸 𝑐 = S; E ∩ 𝐸 𝑐 = ∅
• For any two events E and F, we write E ⊂ F if all the outcomes of E are
in F.
Probability
1. Sample Space and Events
Notation and Properties
• Commutative laws
𝐸∪𝐹 =𝐹∪𝐸
𝐸∩𝐹 =𝐹∩𝐸
• Associative laws
𝐸 ∪ 𝐹 ∪ 𝐺 = 𝐸 ∪ (𝐹 ∪ 𝐺)
(𝐸 ∩ 𝐹) ∩ 𝐺 = 𝐸 ∩ (𝐹 ∩ 𝐺)
• Distributive laws
𝐸 ∪ 𝐹 ∩ 𝐺 = (𝐸 ∩ 𝐺) ∪ (𝐹 ∩ 𝐺)
(𝐸 ∩ 𝐹) ∪ 𝐺 = (𝐸 ∪ 𝐺) ∩ (𝐹 ∪ 𝐺)
Probability
1. Sample Space and Events
Probability
1. Sample Space and Events
DeMorgan’s Laws
𝑐
(∪∞ 𝐸
𝑖=1 𝑖 ) 𝑐
=∩∞
𝐸
𝑖=1 𝑖
𝑐
(∩∞ 𝐸
𝑖=1 𝑖 ) 𝑐
=∪∞
𝐸
𝑖=1 𝑖
Probability
2. Axioms of Probability
Consider an experiment with sample space S. For each event E, we
assume that a number P(E), the probability of the event E, is defined
and satisfies the following 3 axioms:
Axiom 1: 0 ≤ 𝑃(𝐸) ≤ 1
Axiom 2: 𝑃 𝑆 = 1
Axiom 3: For any sequence of mutually exclusive events 𝐸𝑖 𝑖≥1 , i.e
𝐸𝑖 ∩ 𝐸𝑗 = ∅ 𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑛 𝑖 ≠ 𝑗, we have
∞
𝑃 ∪∞
𝑖=1 𝐸𝑖 = 𝑃(𝐸𝑖 )
𝑖=1
Probability
2. Axioms of Probability
Direct consequences include
• P(∅) = 0
• For mutually exclusive events 𝐸𝑖 𝑖≥1
𝑃 ∪𝑛𝑖=1 𝐸𝑖 = 𝑃(𝐸𝑖 )
𝑖=1
Probability
2. Axioms of Probability
In Example 2.1: Assume both coins are unbiased; i.e. a head is as likely
to appear as a tail, then
P ({(H,H)}) = P ({(H,T)}) = P ({(T,H)}) = P ({(T,T)}) =1/4
Example 2.6: A die is rolled and we assume
P ({1}) = P ({2}) = … = P ({6}) = 1/6
Find the probability of having an odd number.
Probability
3. Some Simple Propositions
• Proposition 1: 𝑃(𝐸 𝑐 ) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐸)
• Proposition 2: If 𝐸 ⊂ 𝐹 then 𝑃 (𝐸) ≤ 𝑃(𝐹)
• Proposition 3: 𝑃(𝐸 ∪ 𝐹) = 𝑃 (𝐸) + 𝑃 (𝐹) − 𝑃(𝐸 ∩ 𝐹)
• 𝑃(𝐸 ∪ 𝐹 ∪ 𝐺) = 𝑃 𝐸 + 𝑃 𝐹 + 𝑃 𝐺
− 𝑃(𝐸 ∩ 𝐹) − 𝑃 𝐸 ∩ 𝐺 − 𝑃 𝐹 ∩ 𝐺
+ 𝑃(𝐸 ∩ 𝐹 ∩ 𝐺)
Probability
3. Some Simple Propositions
Example 2.7: You are in a restaurant and ordering 2 dishes. With
probability 0.6, you will like the first dish; with probability 0.4, you will
like the second dish. With probability 0.3, you will like both of them.
What is the probability you will like neither dish?
Probability
3. Some Simple Propositions
Example 2.8: A die is thrown twice and the number on each throw is
recorded. Assuming the dice is fair, what is the probability of obtaining
at least one 6?
Probability
4. Sample Spaces Having Equally Likely Outcomes
• Assume S = {1, 2, ..., N} then it is often natural to assume
P ({i}) = 1/N; i = 1, 2, ... , N
so, for any event E,
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝐸 𝑛(𝐸)
𝑃 𝐸 = =
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑆 𝑛(𝑆)
Probability
4. Sample Spaces Having Equally Likely Outcomes
Example 2.9: A company has 200 employees. 50 of these employees
are smokers. One employee is selected at random. What is the
probability that the selected employee is a smoker
Probability
4. Sample Spaces Having Equally Likely Outcomes
Example 2.10: If 5 balls are “randomly drawn” from a bowl containing
10 white and 7 black balls, what is the probability that 3 of the balls are
white and the 2 other black?
Probability
4. Sample Spaces Having Equally Likely Outcomes
Example 2.11: If two dice are rolled, what is the probability that the
sum of the upturned faces will equal 7?
Probability
4. Sample Spaces Having Equally Likely Outcomes
Example 2.12: Consider a company with 20 male employees and 30
female employees. The company is going to choose 5 employees at
random for drug testing. What is the probability that the five chosen
employees consist of
(a) 3 males and 2 females;
(b) All males;
(c) All females?
Probability
4. Sample Spaces Having Equally Likely Outcomes
Example 2.13: A manufacturer has received a shipment of 50 parts.
Unfortunately, 20 of the parts are defective. The manufacturer is going
to test a sample of 5 parts chosen at random from the shipment. What
is the probability that the sample contains
(a) 3 defective parts and 2 good parts;
(b) all defective parts;
(c) no defective parts?
Probability
4. Sample Spaces Having Equally Likely Outcomes
Example 2.14: A line-up of 10 men is conducted in order that a witness
can identify 3 suspects. Suppose that 3 people in the line-up actually
committed the crime in question. If the witness does not recognize any
of the suspects, but simply chooses three men at random, what is the
probability that the three guilty men are selected? What is the
probability that the witness selects three innocent men?
Probability
5. Exercises
Example 2.15: Suppose that 𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 0.2, 𝑃 𝐴 = 0.6, 𝑃 𝐵 = 0.5
Find 𝑃 𝐴′ ∪ 𝐵′ , 𝑃 𝐴′ ∩ 𝐵′ , 𝑃 𝐴′ ∩ 𝐵 , 𝑃(𝐴′ ∪ 𝐵).
Probability
5. Exercises
Example 2.16: A survey is made to determine the number of
households having electric appliances in a certain city. It is
found that 75% have radios (R), 65% have electric irons (I), 55% have
electric toasters (T), 50% have (IR), 40% have (RT), 30% have (IT), and
20% have all three. Find the probability that a household has at least
one of these appliances.
Probability
5. Exercises
Example 2.17: In a survey of 120 students, the following data was
obtained. 60 took English, 56 took Math, 42 took Chemistry, 34 took
English and Math, 20 took Math and Chemistry, 16 took English and
Chemistry, 6 took all three subjects. Find the number of students who
took
(i) none of the subjects,
(ii) Math, but not English or Chemistry,
(iii) English and Math but not Chemistry.
Probability
5. Exercises
Example 2.18: A survey of 1000 people determines that 80% like
walking and 60% like biking, and all like at least one of the two
activities. What is the probability that a randomly chosen person in this
survey likes biking but not walking?
Probability
5. Exercises
Example 2.19: Among a large group of patients recovering from
shoulder injuries, it is found that 22% visit both a physical therapist and
a chiropractor, whereas 12% visit neither of these. The probability that
a patient visits a chiropractor exceeds by 0.14 the probability that a
patient visits a physical therapist. Determine the probability that a
randomly chosen member of this group visits a physical therapist.
Probability
5. Exercises
Example 2.20: An insurer offers a health plan to the employees of a
large company. As part of this plan, the individual employees may
choose exactly two of the supplementary coverages A, B, and C, or
they may choose no supplementary coverage. The proportions of the
company’s employees that choose coverages A, B, and C are 1/4, 1/3,
and 5/12, respectively. Determine the probability that a randomly
chosen employee will choose no supplementary coverage.
Probability
5. Exercises
Example 2.21: An auto insurance company has 10,000 policyholders.
Each policyholder is classified as
(i) young or old;
(ii) male or female; and
(iii) married or single.
Of these policyholders, 3000 are young, 4600 are male, and 7000 are
married. The policyholders can also be classified as 1320 young males,
3010 married males, and 1400 young married persons.
Finally, 600 of the policyholders are young married males. How many of
the company’s policyholders are young, female, and single?
Probability
5. Exercises
Example 2.22: The probability that a visit to a primary care physician’s
(PCP) office results in neither lab work nor referral to a specialist is
35%. Of those coming to a PCP’s office, 30% are referred to specialists
and 40% require lab work. Determine the probability that a visit to a
PCP’s office results in both lab work and referral to a specialist.
Probability
5. Exercises
Example 2.23: You are given 𝑃 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 = 0.7 and 𝑃 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵′ =
0.9. Determine 𝑃 𝐴 .
Probability
5. Exercises
Example 2.24: A survey of a group’s viewing habits over the last year
revealed the following information:
(i) 28% watched gymnastics
(ii) 29% watched baseball
(iii) 19% watched soccer
(iv) 14% watched gymnastics and baseball
(v) 12% watched baseball and soccer
(vi) 10% watched gymnastics and soccer
(vii) 8% watched all three sports.
Calculate the percentage of the group that watched none of the three
sports during the last year.
Probability
5. Exercises
Example 2.25: Under an insurance policy, a maximum of five claims may be
filed per year by a policyholder. Let 𝑝𝑛 be the probability that a policyholder
files 𝑛 claims during a given year, where 𝑛 = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. An actuary makes
the following observations:
i) 𝑝𝑛 ≥ 𝑝𝑛+1 for 𝑛 = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4.
ii) The difference between 𝑝𝑛 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑝𝑛+1 is the same for 𝑛 = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4.
iii) Exactly 40% of policyholders file fewer than two claims during a given
year.
Calculate the probability that a random policyholder will file more than three
claims during a given year.
Probability
5. Exercises
Example 2.26: The probability that a member of a certain class of
homeowners with liability and property coverage will file a liability
claim is 0.04, and the probability that a member of this class will file a
property claim is 0.10. The probability that member of this class will file
a liability claim but not a property claim is 0.01.
Calculate the probability that a randomly selected member of this class
of homeowners will not file a claim of either type.
Probability
5. Exercises
Example 2.27: A mattress store sells only, king, queen and twin-size
mattresses. Sales records at the store indicate that one-fourth as many
queen-size mattresses are sold as king and twin-size mattresses
combined. Records also indicate that three times as many king-size
mattresses are sold as twin-size mattresses.
Calculate the probability that the next mattress sold is either king or
queen-size.
