JCPOA/ P5+!
Deal
(JCPOA: Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action)
P5+1: Permanent Five + One, which refers to the five
permanent members of the United Nations Security Council
(China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United
States) plus Germany.
1. Iran would reduce its uranium enrichment capacity to
3.67%. Would also allow the IAEA observer to inspect the
nuclear reactor of Iran.
2. In return sanctions would be removed from Iran. Example
42 billion $ reserves were frozen. Iran would allowed to
export oil and gas.
It was called a historic deal by Obama
First, it successfully stopped Iran from acquiring a nuclear
bomb.
Secondly, Middle Eastern allies (Israel and GCC) saved from a
nuclear threat.
Thirdly, Middle East is saved from nuclear competition
Trump/Netanyahu called it a historic blunder
First. JCPOA gave Iran an opportunity to revive its economy as
sanctions would be removed. This provided Iran with the
opportunity to provide funding to its proxies like Hezbollah,
Hamas, and Houthi
Secondly, Iran bluffs the world. It would stabilize its economy
and then once again resume its nuclearization.
Attack of Israel on Iran
Israel launched areal strikes through F-35, F-16 bombers etc.
Targeted High profile personalities like the army chief, the chief
IRGC, top military commanders and nuclear scientists.
Secondly, Israel targeted the Nuclear reactors in “Asfhan,
Natans and Fordo”. Thirdly, attacked the Missile system of
Iran especially storages and launching batteries. Fourthly target
the air bases, fifthly the oil and gas fields.
Attack of US on Iran
US through B2 bombers targeted the three key nuclear reactors
in “Fordo, Asfhan and Natans” having enrichment capacity
UPTILL 60%. Bunker buster bombs were used in the attack
having the capacity to penetrate approximately 60 feet under
the ground. US claimed to have obliterated the facility.
WHY Israel Attacked Iran
1. Netanyahu wanted to sabotage the nuclear talks between
Iran and Trump administration. Trump pulled out of the JCPOA
in 2018. But he resumed talks with Iran in 2025. Sixth round of
talks. These talks were not acceptable to Israel. Therefore, he
attacked Iran.
2. Israel wanted to neutralize the nuclear threat from Iran.
Therefore, it attacked the nuclear reactors in Asfhan, Natans and
Fordo--- total 19 reactors but three are more important. Iran
enrichment capacity in majority of reactors is 3.67%, some 20%,
but three reactors 60% as reported by IAEA.
3. Netanyahu is facing massive internal opposition. Vote of
no confidence against his government which failed 65 v. 56. The
opposition have serious allegations against PM. E.g he took
funds from Qatar and handed them over to Hamas. Israel is
internationally defamed due PM policies. The world call Israel
genocide and ethnic cleansing for Netanyahu is responsible. He
also responsible for the Israel citizens’ hostages with Hamas. To
defuse this tension Netanyahu had attack Iran and divert the
attention of Israel people and opposition against him.
4. Netanyahu was losing his European allies increasingly due
to the genocide of the Palestinians in Gaza. To win them back it
was necessary to open war front with Iran.
Why US attacked?
Majority of the US presidents in past have not been in favor of
direct attack on Iran mainly due to three reasons; First, to attack
Iran the president needed the approval of the US congress which
was in favor of that.
Secondly, violation of international. The IAEA charter clearly
states that no country/government is authorized to attack nuclear
facilities in any other country because it would cause nuclear
radiation that would harm the population in magnitude. UN
charter also stops a country from attacking another sovereign
country.
Thirdly, the attack of Iran would have far reaching negative
implications like, like may disrupt the Strait of hormuz in the
Persian gulf, one of the major trade/energy route. It can also
disrupt the strait of ADEN IN THE red sea Houthi—proxy of
Iran. It would cause massive energy price hike that effect the
prices of every other commodities. Iran has proficient also has
massive defence /retaliation capacities. It would attack Israel,
and US bases in the region. It may cause the expansion of war in
the region.
But Trump carried out areal strikes on the nuclear reactors of
Fordo, Natans and Asfhan. Bunker buster bombs. Reasons for
attack are numerous like, 1. Jewish lobby called Aepac is the
strongest of the lobbies in US. They Are Jewish businessmen
contributes mostly to US economy. The lobby always influence
the decision of white house, pentagon and US congress. Trump
has been the key choice of the lobby in the recent election. 2.
Trump is under tremendous influence of Evegical/Zionist
Christians. These are approximately 27% of total US vote bank
voted for Trump. 3. Personal influence on Trump like his son
and law is Zionist Jew. His daughter is a converter. Etc.
Attack of Iran on Israel and US
1. Frist phase Iran fired drone above 100. Majority of the
drones were intercepted by US< UK, Jordan, Israel.
2. Iran fired more than 80 ballistic missiles.
3. Fired above 20 hypersonic missiles on the first day of
retaliation.
4. Fired 14 missiles on US base in Qatar and 15 missiles on
Iraq.
5. Till date Iran has fired more than 300 drone and more than
380 missiles on Israel mostly.
Israel and US claims and the reality
1. US and Israel claim to have eliminated the major
enrichment rectors of Iran. Iran, Russia and China claim
that major structures are completely intacted and only the
entrance and exit points are damaged. IAEA and KSA
nuclear Agency say that there are no sign of nuclear
radiations/leaks. It is not clear whether the structure is
saved or Iran shifted its enriched uranium to other points.
The reality could only be established when the IAEA
observer inspect the reactors. Even the reactors are
destroyed the general consensus among nuclear scientist
that Iran can rebuild this capacity within two years.
2. Israel claimed to have destroyed the missile capacities of
Iran; both the storages and the batteries. But the attacks of
Iran prove that majority of missiles are intact. Furthermore,
Iran’s missiles capacity has proved to be quite surprising.
These missiles reach and attack the target in Israel inspited
a series of interceptors. Example Israel has Four layer of air
defence system; first Arrow III, Arrow II, David Sling, Iron
Dome. Furthermore US military bases and interceptors in
Iraq, Jordan, Qatar, G bouti, Persian gulf, red sea,
Mediterian sea etc. UK, Jordan also intercepted.
3. The top leadership of Iran being eliminated as claimed by
Israel; military and scientists. A major setback to Iran. But
Iran regrouped and organized attacked Israel.
4. The Air force of Iran has proved to fairly weak. Majority of
the jet fighter are outdated like F-14 jets, MIG 29 which
needs overhawling, SU 30 jets are fewer in number. This is
mainly because of sanctions on Iran since 2002. But the
missile system of Iran is mainly domestic and proved to be
quite proficient. But the questions how many missiles are
left with Iran.
Regime change and US v. Israel
Regime change means the end/killing of supreme Leader, end of
theocratic government under the control of Imam Khamenei.
Israel does have the potential to carry out surgical strikes in Iran.
The killing of the generals, scientists and Hamas Leader proven
that. Mainly due the intelligence penetration of Mossad into
Iran. Therefore the possibility of killing the supreme leader
cannot be overruled. Israel intends to do so. The Supreme leader
already nominated three scholar as his heirs.
But USA currently is not interested in the regime change. Vice
president JD Vince, Secretary of state Rubio stated. US
wanted to dismantle the nuclear suites of Iran only. Not
intending to target the supreme leader or even interested in the
regime change as US is not interested the form of government in
Iran. On the other Israel seriously wants regime change. It is to
be seen whether Trump/US –Netanyahu/Israel rift deepens on
the regime change in Iran or not? It is also possible that situation
deteriorates to the extent that US also agree to regime change.
But for that boots on the ground necessary for US/Israel and
probably NATO also.
Attack on Iran policy of China and Russia
1. Russia and China along with Pak placed a resolution n in
the UNSC condemning attack of Israel and US on Iran
2. All the three countries also condemned the attacks on Iran
on SCO forum.
3. They called it the sovereignty violation of Iran. Iran has the
every right to defend itself.
4. All the countries demanded to freeze the war and give
diplomacy a chance.
Russia could not jump into war for the sake of Iran till date.
Mainly because it is stuck in the long and bleeding war against
Ukraine supported by NATO. Secondly, wait and see policy of
Moscow as it wants to check to what extent US involves in the
war.
China has the policy of not jumping into war rather policy of
peaceful co-existence with neighbors and world powers. But it
would also have the wait and see policy how the situation
evolves as time may force china to jump into the war because its
majority oil and gas imports from Iran. But there is stronger
perception built in the last two weeks that China unlike US
doesn’t jump into wars for the sake of allies.
There is also a possibility that Russia and China want US to get
stuck in prolonged war in Iran. This would help Russia as
US/NATO focus on Ukraine would decline. China would
successfully avoid increase in tension with US. China even think
of annexing Taiwan the sooner.
Impacts of war
1. Rise in the fuel prices. Increase in the prices of every other
commodities. Strait of AEDA and Hormuz may be
disrupted by Iran.
2. Expansion of War in the region. A. Israel –Iran war b. US-
Iran attacks, c. Iran may target US bases in the ME that
result in increasing tension Arab nations. D. Regime
change in Iran means Boots on the ground means prolong
civil war in Iran.
3. Massive negative impacts on Pakistan. A, Increase in
energy prices would cause more inflation in Pakistan. If
Mossad has presence in Iran and if it increases it would a
major threat for Pakistan the future especially in
Baluchistan and Karachi.
