Lecture Notes on Probability
Distribution
By
Dr. Ajijola, L.A.
Random Variables
• A random variable is a variable that can take on values at random. Consider the
following experiments:
Asking 10 students if they watched a TV show last night (the number of
students who watched the show is a random variable).
Inspecting 20 items of a product to check quality of the items (the number of
defective items is a random variable).
Tossing a coin five times (the number of heads occurring is a random
variable).
Taking an exam with 100 questions (the number of correct answers is a
random variable).
• A random variable can be either Discrete or Continuous
• Discrete random variables take on certain specific values.
• Examples are the following: number of defective items in an inspection (0, 1, 2,
3,….); number of correct answers in an exam (0, 1, 2, 3, …); number of heads
obtained in tossing a coin five times (0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5)
o---------o---------o---------o---------o
• The only values the discrete random variable can take on are indicated by
circles
• Continuous Random Variables
• A continuous random variable can take on any values on a scale. Examples are
distance traveled, time taken to go from one place to another, heights of
individuals, weights of individuals, temperature of cities, etc.
o------------------------------------------o
• A continuous random variable can take on any value on the above scale
Random Variables
Question Random Variable x Type
Family x = Number of dependents Discrete
size reported on tax return
Distance from x = Distance in miles from Continuous
home to store home to the store site
Own dog x = 1 if own no pet; Discrete
or cat = 2 if own dog(s) only;
= 3 if own cat(s) only;
= 4 if own dog(s) and cat(s)
IS 310 – Business Statistics Slide 4
Discrete Probability Distributions
• The probability distribution for a random variable describes how probabilities
are distributed over the values of the random variable.
• For a discrete random variable 𝑥, the probability distribution is defined by a
probability function, denoted by 𝑓(𝑥).
• The probability function provides the probability for each value of the random
variable.
• We can describe a discrete probability distribution with a table, graph, or
equation.
• REQUIRED CONDITIONS FOR A DISCRETE PROBABILITY FUNCTION
𝑓(𝑥) ≥ 𝑥
𝑓 𝑥 =1
Illustration
• As an illustration of a discrete random variable and its probability
distribution, consider the sales of automobiles at Lanre Shittu Motors
in Surulere, Lagos State. Over the past 300 days of operation, sales
data show 54 days with no automobiles sold, 117 days with 1
automobile sold, 72 days with 2 automobiles sold, 42 days with 3
automobiles sold, 12 days with 4 automobiles sold, and 3 days with 5
automobiles sold. Suppose we consider the experiment of selecting a
day of operation at Lanre Shittu Motors and define the random
variable of interest as 𝑥 the number of automobiles sold during a day.
Probability Distribution for the Number Of Automobiles
Sold During a Day by Lanre Shittu Motors
• Number of cars sold Probability
0 54/300 = 0.18
1 117/300 = 0.39
2 72/300 = 0.24
3 42/300 = 0.14
4 12/300 = 0.04
5 3/300 = 0.01
Discrete Uniform Probability Function
• A discrete probability distribution given by a formula is the discrete uniform
probability distribution. Its probability function is defined by
1
𝑓 𝑥 =
𝑛
• where
• 𝑛 =the number of values the random variable may assume
For example, suppose that for the experiment of rolling a die we define the
random variable 𝑥 to be the number of dots on the upward face. For this
experiment, 𝑛 = 6 values are possible for the random variable; 𝑥 =
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. Thus, the probability function for this discrete uniform random
variable is
1
𝑓 𝑥 = 𝑥 = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
6
• The possible values of the random variable and the associated probabilities are
shown.
𝒙 𝒇 𝒙
1 1
6
2 1
6
3 1
6
4 1
6
5 1
6
6 1
6
Binomial Probability Distribution
• The binomial probability distribution is a discrete probability distribution that
provides many applications. It is associated with a multiple-step experiment that
we call the binomial experiment.
• A binomial experiment exhibits the following four properties.
1. The experiment consists of a sequence of n identical trials.
2. Two outcomes are possible on each trial. We refer to one outcome as a
success and the other outcome as a failure.
3. The probability of a success, denoted by 𝑝, does not change from trial to
trial. Consequently, the probability of a failure, denoted by 1 − 𝑝, does not
change from trial to trial.
4. The trials are independent.
• Example 1
• In a toss of 3 coins, find the probability of getting (i) 3 heads (ii) 2 heads
• Example 1
• In a toss of 3 coins, find the probability of getting (i) 3 heads (ii) 2 heads
• Solution 1
• Using probability, the sample space are: HHH, HHT, HTH, THH, HTT, THT,
TTH, TTT. Therefore,
i. 𝑃 3 ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑠 = 1 8
ii. 𝑃 2 ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑠 = 3 8
• Example 1
• In a toss of 3 coins, find the probability of getting (i) 3 heads (ii) 2 heads
• Solution 1
• Using probability, the sample space are: HHH, HHT, HTH, THH, HTT, THT,
TTH, TTT. Therefore,
i. 𝑃 3 ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑠 = 1 8
ii. 𝑃 2 ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑠 = 3 8
• However, using Binomial distribution; 𝑛 = 3; 𝑝 = 1 2 ; 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑞 = 1 − 𝑝 = 1 2 .
• Therefore,
𝑛 𝑥 𝑛−𝑥 3 1 3 1 3−3 1 1
i. 𝑃 𝑋 = 3 ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑠 = 𝑝 𝑞 = = 1 1 =
𝑥 3 2 2 8 8
3 1 2 1 3−2 1 1
ii. 𝑃 𝑋 = 2 ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑠 = = 3 =3 8
2 2 2 4 2
• Example 2
• A man setting traps for birds discovers that 1 out of every 5 birds flying into his
compound is trapped. What is the probability that is 10 birds fly into his
compound, exactly 3 will be trapped?
• Example 2
• A man setting traps for birds discovers that 1 out of every 5 birds flying into his
compound is trapped. What is the probability that is 10 birds fly into his
compound, exactly 3 will be trapped?
• Solution 2
1 1 4
𝑛 = 10; 𝑥 = 3; 𝑝 = ; 𝑞 = 1 − =
5 5 5
• Therefore,
3 7
𝑛 𝑥 𝑛−𝑥 10 1 4
𝑃 𝑋=3 = 𝑝 𝑞 = = 0.2013
𝑥 3 5 5
• Example 3
• A machine is known to have 10% defective unit. If a sample of 20 units are
examined. Find the probability that
i. Non of the units is defective = 0.1216
ii. Exactly two of the units are defective = 0.2852
iii. Almost five of the units are defective = 0.0319 or 0.9887
iv. At least four of the units are defective = 0.1329
• Example 3
• A machine is known to have 10% defective unit. If a sample of 20 units are
examined. Find the probability that
i. Non of the units is defective
ii. Exactly two of the units are defective
iii. Almost five of the units are defective
iv. At least four of the units are defective
• Solution 3
𝑛 = 20; 𝑝 = 0.1; 𝑞 = 1 − 0.1 = 0.9
• Therefore,
𝑛 𝑥 𝑛−𝑥 20
i. 𝑃 𝑋 = 0 = 𝑝 𝑞 = 0.1 0 0.9 20 = 0.121577
𝑥 0
𝑛 𝑥 𝑛−𝑥 20
ii. 𝑖𝑖 𝑃 𝑋 = 2 = 𝑝 𝑞 = 0.1 2 0.9 18 = 0.29
𝑥 2
• Example 3
• A machine is known to have 10% defective unit. If a sample of 20 units are
examined. Find the probability that
i. Non of the units is defective
ii. Exactly two of the units are defective
iii. Almost five of the units are defective
iv. At least four of the units are defective
• Solution 3
𝑛 = 20; 𝑝 = 0.1; 𝑞 = 1 − 0.1 = 0.9
• Therefore,
𝑛 𝑥 𝑛−𝑥 20
i. 𝑃 𝑋 = 0 = 𝑝 𝑞 = 0.1 0 0.9 20 = 0.121577
𝑥 0
𝑛 𝑥 𝑛−𝑥 20
ii. 𝑖𝑖 𝑃 𝑋 = 2 = 𝑝 𝑞 = 0.1 2 0.9 18 = 0.29
𝑥 2
iii. 𝑃 𝑋 ≤ 5 = 𝑃 𝑋 = 0 + 𝑃 𝑋 = 1 + 𝑃 𝑋 = 2 + 𝑃 𝑋 = 3 + 𝑃 𝑋 = 4 +
𝑃 𝑋=5
20
𝑃 𝑋=0 = 0.1 0 0.9 20 = 0.12
0
20
𝑃 𝑋=1 = 0.1 1 0.9 19 = 0.27
1
20
𝑃 𝑋=2 = 0.1 2 0.9 18 = 0.29
2
20
𝑃 𝑋=3 = 0.1 3 0.9 17 = 0.19
3
20
𝑃 𝑋=4 = 0.1 4 0.9 16 = 0.09
4
20
𝑃 𝑋=5 = 0.1 5 0.9 15 = 0.03
5
∴ 𝑃 𝑋 ≤ 5 = 0.12 + 0.27 + 0.29 + 0.19 + 0.09 + 0.03 = 0.99
iv. 𝑃 𝑋 ≥ 4 = 1 − 𝑃 𝑋 < 4
=1− 𝑃 𝑋 =0 +𝑃 𝑋 =1 +𝑃 𝑋 =2 +𝑃 𝑋 =3
= 1 − 0.12 + 0.27 + 0.29 + 0.19
1 − 0.87 = 0.13
Assignment
• If a binomial distribution has mean=8 and standard deviation = 6, write out
all the terms of the distribution.
• NOTE
• In Binomial Distribution
• 𝑀𝑒𝑎𝑛 = 𝑛𝑝
• 𝑉𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒 = 𝑛𝑝𝑞 = 𝑛𝑝 1 − 𝑝
• 𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝐷𝑒𝑣𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 = 𝑛𝑝𝑞 = 𝑛𝑝(1 − 𝑝)
Poisson Distribution
• 𝑃 𝐴 + 𝑃 𝐴𝑐 = 1
• 𝑃 𝐴𝑐 = 1 − 𝑃 𝐴
• 𝑃 𝑋 ≤𝑥 +𝑃 𝑋 >𝑥 =1
