MAT 162 - INTRODUCTORY STATISTICS II

LECTURE 2: CONCEPT AND PRINCIPLES OF PROBABILITY

Prepared by Dr. Ashiribo Senapon WUSU

Email: [email protected] | Phone: 08026479471
Mathematics Department, Lagos State University.
LESSON OUTLINE
Introduction
Elementary events and sample space
Certain and impossible events
The union and joint events
Mutually exclusive events
Complementary events
Independent and dependent events
Some Probability Rules
Summary
Exercise
INTRODUCTION
Probability theory is essential and plays a special role in all our lives, this is simply
because we use it to measure uncertainty as most human activities occur with the
possibility of either a success or a failure.
It is a numerical value that measures the uncertainty that a particular event will occur.
Statisticians refer to an outcome as event.
ELEMENTARY EVENTS AND SAMPLE SPACE
An elementary event (also called an atomic event or sample point) is an event which
contains only a single outcome. Elementary events and their corresponding outcomes
are o!en written interchangeably for simplicity, as such an event corresponds to
precisely one outcome.
The complete collection of elementary events is called sample space.
Example: {HH}, {HT}, {TH} and {TT} if a coin is tossed twice. S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}. H stands
for heads and T for tails.
CERTAIN AND IMPOSSIBLE EVENTS
A certain event is a an event that is sure to occur, while an impossible event is any event
that will never occur.
Probability events is measured between zero (0) and one (1). 0 and 1 are the two extreme
probabilities. The probability of an impossible event will be zero since it will never occur.
Similarly, the probability of a certain event will be one.
All probabilities will therefore lie between the two extremes (0 and 1).
THE UNION AND JOINT EVENTS
The union and joint events are called compound events. A compound event is expressed
in terms of two or more component events.
The union of several sets is a set having as it elements the elements of those sets being
joined. While the intersection (joint events) of several sets is a set having as its elements
just those elements common to all the sets.
Example: If A = {1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 9}, B = {2, 4, 6, 8, 10} and C = {2, 3, 5, 7}, the union of A,
B and C is given as A ∪ B ∪ C = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10}. The joint events of A, B and
C is A ∩ B ∩ C = {2}.
MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS
Two events of the same experiment are said to be mutually exclusive if their respective
event sets do not overlap. In other words, mutually exclusive events cannot occur at the
same time.
The intersection of exclusive events is an empty set.
MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS (EXAMPLE)
In flipping a fair die, let A be the event of getting a even number, B, the event of getting a
number less than 6, and C be the event of getting an odd number. Then, A = {2, 4, 6},
B = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5}, C = {1, 3, 5}.
Observe that events A and C are mutually exclusive but events A and B are not.
3 5
pr(A + B) = pr(A) + pr(B) − pr(A ∩ B) = + −
6 6
3 3
pr(A + C) = pr(A) + pr(C) − pr(A ∩ C) = + −
6 6
5 3
pr(B + C) = pr(B) + pr(C) − pr(B ∩ C) = + −
6 6
COMPLEMENTARY EVENTS
When a pair of events are both mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive, they are
complementary events or opposites. If one event is A , then the complement of the event
is denoted Ac .
Note that pr(A) + pr(Ac ) = 1.
Example: In a class containing both male and female students, the events male and
female are complementary.
INDEPENDENT AND DEPENDENT EVENTS
In mathematics – namely statistics – as well as in real life, events are o!en categorized as
either dependent or independent.
Dependent events influence the probability of other events – or their probability of
occurring is affected by other events.
Independent events do not affect one another and do not increase or decrease the
probability of another event happening.
INDEPENDENT AND DEPENDENT EVENTS
To establish that two events are independent or dependent, we need only compare the
unconditional probability for one event to its conditional probability given the other
event.
If A and B are two events in a sample space S, then the conditional probability of A given
B is defined as
pr(A ∩ B)
pr(A|B) = , pr(B) > 0 (4)
pr(B)
PROBABILITY LIMIT
The probability pr(E) of any event E , occurring must lie between zero (0) and one (1)
inclusive.
0 ≤ pr(E) ≤ 1 (5)
Example 1:: In a group of 2 men and 3 women:
The probability, pr(E) of selecting a woman is pr(E) = 35 = 0.6
The probability, pr(E) of selecting a man is pr(E) = 25 = 0.4
The probability, pr(E) of selecting a baby is pr(E) = 05 = 0
The probability, pr(E) of selecting an adult is pr(E) = 55 = 1
TOTAL PROBABILITY RULE
The sum of all possible outcomes of an experiment must total exactly one (1).
∑ pr(Ei ) = 1 (6)
i
Example 2:: If a coin is tossed twice, the sample space is S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}. Where H
stands for heads and T for tails. Now
1 1 1 1
(pr(EHH ) = ) + (pr(EHT ) = ) + (pr(ETH ) = ) + (pr(ETT ) = ) = 1
4 4 4 4
COMPLEMENTARY RULE
If the complement of any event E is E c or Ē , then the addition of the probabilities of E
and E c must equal one (1). Therefore,
pr(E) = 1 − pr(E c ) (7)
Example 3:: If the probability, pr(p) that a student will pass an examination is 0.79. Then,
the probability the he will fail the examination is
pr(pc ) = 1 − pr(p) = 1 − 0.79 = 0.21 (8)
ADDITION RULE
The probability of events A or B is written as:
1. For mutually exclusive events or independent events;
pr(A or B) = pr(A) + pr(B) (9)
2. For non-mutually exclusive events or dependent events;
pr(A or B) = pr(A ∪ B) = pr(A) + pr(B) − pr(A and B) (10)
= pr(A) + pr(B) − pr(A ∩ B) (11)
ADDITION RULE (CONT.)
Example 4: A fair die is rolled once. What is the probability of rolling a 2 or a 5?
Solution: These events are mutually exclusive since they cannot occur at the same time.
pr(2 or 5) = pr(2) + pr(5) (12)
1 1
= + (13)
6 6
2 1
= = (14)
6 3
ADDITION RULE (CONT.)
Example 5: A glass jar contains 1 red, 3 green, 2 blue, and 4 yellow marbles. If a single
marble is chosen at random from the jar, what is the probability that it is yellow or
green?
Solution:
pr(yellow or green) = pr(yellow) + pr(green) (15)
4 3
= + (16)
10 10
7
= (17)
10
ADDITION RULE (CONT.)
Example 6: In a math class of 30 students, 17 are boys and 13 are girls. On a unit test, 4
boys and 5 girls made an A grade. If a student is chosen at random from the class, what
is the probability of choosing a girl or an A student?
Solution:
pr(A or girl) = pr(A) + pr(girl) − pr(A and girl) (1
13 9 5
= + − (1
30 30 30
17
= (2
30
MULTIPLICATION RULE
The multiplication rule is a way to find the probability of two events happening at the
same time. There are two multiplication rules.
The general multiplication rule formula is: P (A ∩ B) = P (A)P (B|A) and the specific
multiplication rule is P (A andB) = P (A) ∗ P (B).
P (B|A) means "the probability of A happening given that B has occurred".
The specific multiplication rule, P (A andB) = P (A) ∗ P (B), is only valid if the two
events are independent. In other words, it only works if one event does not change the
probability of the other event.
MULTIPLICATION RULE (CONT.)
Example 7: A bag contains 6 black marbles and 4 blue marbles. Two marbles are drawn
from the bag, without replacement. What is the probability that both marbles are blue?
Solution: Let A be the event that marble 1 is blue and let B be the event that marble 2 is
blue.
Figure out the probability of A: There are ten marbles in the bag, so the probability of
drawing a blue marble is 4/10.
Figure out the probability of B: There are nine marbles le! in the bag, so the probability
of choosing a blue marble is 3/9.
The required probability is (4/10)*(3/9) = 2/15.
SUMMARY
In this lesson, some basic concepts and principles of probability have been discussed
and examples presented.
EXERCISE
If a fair die is rolled twice and two numbers X 1 = result of the first roll and X 2 = result of
the second roll are obtained. Given that X 1 + X 2 = 7 , what is the probability that
X 1 = 4 or X 2 = 4 ?
A lemonade stand has pink and plain lemonade. If the probability of buying pink
lemonade is 3/8, what is the probability that the customer does not buy pink lemonade?
Of 40 customers, how many do you expect to buy plain lemonade?