Practical Strategies

to Manage Your Bankroll and

Outsmart Your Opponents

ALEC TORELLI
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POKER COACH
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POKER COACH
Practical Strategies to Manage Your Bankroll
and Outsmart Your Opponents

ALEC TORELLI

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ROCKRIDGE
PRESS
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RO
 To my parents,
who did everything to ensure my hand
would be played the best it could.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

INTRODUCTION

HOW TO USE THIS BOOK XII

PHASE I: UNDERSTAND THE BASICS

AND SET EXPECTATIONS
STEP I: GRASP THE FUNDAMENTALS

The Purpose of Poker

The Essence of Poker Strategy

Are You Ready to Play?

Which Format of Poker Is Right for You?
Set Your Poker Goal
Map It Out

Playing Texas Hold’em 101

Plan to Track Your Progress
Keep Records Like a Pro

Poker Risk and Spending

Variance in Tournament Poker
Variance in Cash Games
Creating Your Poker Bankroll
Which Stakes Should | Play?

The Role of Luck in Poker and Life

Equity vs. Probability
Seeing It in Action
 STEP 2: BUILDING YOUR STRATEGY rhe,

Basic Poker Concepts 36

Core Concept #1: Position 36

Core Concept #2: Hand Types 42
Core Concept #3: Hand Ranges 46

Mastering Poker Math 50

Probability 50
Pot Odds 51
Converting Pot Odds to a Percentage 52
Using Pot Odds and Equity to Make Decisions 58
Implied Odds 62
Reverse Implied Odds 63

Poker: A Game of Patience 66

STEP 3: VISUALIZE THE PROCESS AND

FLOW OF THE GAME 69

The 5 Most Common Tells of Your Opponent 70

Using Your Image at the Poker Table 72
The 5 Ways Your Opponents Will Profile You 73
Making Adjustments in Real Time 75

PHASE 2: AT THE TABLE

STEP 4: START YOUR ENGINES 83

Preflop Play 84
Making the Most of the Preflop Charts 85
Exceptions to the Rule: Big Blind Play 86
Limping Preflop 87
Preflop Raise Sizing 87
Preflop Play: Re-Raising or Three-Betting 90
 Postflop Strategy 95

How to Hand Read Like a Professional 95

The Hand Range Funnel in Practice 99
Counting Combos 102
The FOUR-Step Process for Making Decisions 107

STEP-5: LEARN THE TACTICS 115

How to Time and Size Your Bluffs 116

When to Value Bet 119
Range Advantages and Range Leverage 123
How to Size Your Bets for Success 126
Range Balancing 138

STEP 6: MASTERING THE MENTAL GAME 143

Tilt Control and Overcoming Bad Beats 144

Understanding Bad Beats 144
Reshaping One’s Outlook 145
Maintaining Perspective 146
Focusing on the Next Hand 146
How to Deal with Downswings 147
Poker Psychology 148

RESOURCES 152

Books 12

Content 152
Apps 153

GLOSSARY 154

INDE X 156
INTRODUCTION
It all began one summer afternoon in Orange County, California. | was
only 16 when my friend invited me to play poker at his house. | won
$12. But, as they say, the worst thing that can happen to a gambler is
that first win, because then you’re hooked. | started playing every day
after school and read every poker book | could, discussing strategy
with friends. My passion for the game just kept growing.
Fast-forward two years later to 2005. | found myself in Dallas,
Texas, where | was supposed to be attending university. Instead, |
locked myself in my dorm room, grinding out 16-hour sessions of
online poker, playing 10 games at a time. While my grades suffered,
my bank account did not. Halfway into my first semester, | faced a
crossroads: give up poker to study or go “all in” on my dream and
play full-time.
My first year as a pro, | spent countless hours playing online,
made frequent trips to Vegas—where | snuck into casinos with a
fake ID—and even found myself sitting at the final table of the World
Poker Tour in Aruba, winning $40,000. | was completely absorbed
in the game. At the age of 19, | flew to Australia to compete in the
Aussie Millions, and what started as a two-week trip turned into a
six-month journey. While in Melbourne, | won the biggest tournament
in online poker history at the time, the Full Tilt Online Poker Series
(FTOPS). Outlasting more than 3,200 players and making more than
$250,000 in a single day, | went on to become one of the biggest
winners in the online poker world.
The success went to my head. | grew overconfident in my ability,
and | lost most of that money before | turned 21. | learned that being
good at poker isn’t enough to succeed. You also need patience,
mental fortitude, discipline, self-awareness, and risk management
and strategic decision-making skills. Most importantly, you have to be
continuously improving.
By 2009, | had made a comeback, winning back-to-back tournaments
at the Bellagio, becoming the only player in history to do so, making
it to several World Series of Poker and World Poker Tour final tables.
In 2011, | pursued my dream of moving to Italy. Shortly after meeting
the Italian girl who would later become my wife, my poker journey
hit another brick wall. On April 15, 2011, the US Justice Department
banned online poker in the United States. My main source of income
disappeared. As | was scrambling for opportunities, | received a
phone call that changed my life.
“It’s a gold mine out here,” my friend told me. “They have some of
the biggest games in the world, and they’re all fish!”
In January of 2012, | booked a one-way ticket to Macao, an auton-
omous territory on the southern coast of China, near Hong Kong.
With gaming revenue seven times higher than Las Vegas, Macao was
about to become the gambling Mecca of the world. My wife, Ambra,
and | lived there for more than three years. | worked hard, often put-
ting in 70-hour weeks. When | wasn’t playing poker, | was strategizing
with other top professionals. The stakes were real; you might bet a
car and get raised a house. Sometimes it would cost $1,000,000 just
to get a seat. With sessions that regularly lasted 24 hours, my entire
life was engineered to crush at the games.
While in Macao, my wife and | got involved in affiliate marketing
and opened our own digital company. This is when the idea for my
poker school, Conscious Poker, was born. | launched a YouTube
channel and started analyzing interesting hands | played in my
#HandoftheDay show, the first of its kind. Helping others on their
poker journey turned out to be incredibly rewarding, and | developed
a passion for dissecting complex poker strategy for others to apply to
their own games.

Introduction xi
HOW TO USE THIS BOOK
The Poker Coach combines the fundamentals of learning to play
poker with an established training plan engineered to help you
achieve your goals. While those who have never played a single hand
of poker before will gain the knowledge needed to smartly do so,
they may find that as they spend more hours playing poker, more of
the information in this book will start to make sense, as it often takes
firsthand experience for knowledge to “click.” Meanwhile, novice play-
ers who understand the game but are seeking to improve will find a
well-rounded list of strategies and information to take their game to
the next level.
There are two ways one can improve at poker: become a better
poker player or become better at playing poker. Most books center
exclusively on the latter, but as any winning player will attest, suc-
ceeding in poker is as much about managing yourself as it is about
strategy. Being a better poker player means handling your bankroll
correctly, having a plan, and knowing which games are right for
you. Being better at playing poker means becoming proficient in
hand reading, putting your opponent on a range, and knowing the
poker math. A combination of both is needed to win, which is why
The Poker Coach takes a balanced, holistic approach to teaching
the game. The structure of this book is modeled after my in-person
coaching sessions.
This book is full of sample poker hands and practical tips to
up your game. But | aim to take things a step further by using a
conceptual-based learning approach, meaning that I’ll help you
understand how to play the specific hand in question and also explain
the underlying principles behind the strategy. | believe this is the only
sensible way to teach poker, since no two hands are ever the same.
Finally, I'll leave you with tools and resources to improve at poker so
you can take your game as far as you please.
 I’m going to treat you like a professional because of the impact this
approach had on my game. The day | decided to turn pro, | noticed an
immediate difference in the way | acted, behaved, and performed at
the table. Nothing except my outlook changed, but that made all the
difference. Implementing the practices the pros use will increase your
chances of success, whatever your goals may be,
Few poker players win long-term; the consensus is that fewer than
5 percent do. | feel it’s my responsibility as a coach to tell it like it is,
particularly when it comes to your game. It’s only when you are aware
of a problem that you can do something about it. My focus while writ-
ing this book has been your results, not your ego. It’s okay if you get
scratched a bit along the way, because | know if you’re going to be
among those 5 percent of players who actually win at poker, you’re
going to need a thick skin.
Lastly, | believe poker should be fun, which means a book about
poker should be fun as well. With that in mind, The Poker Coach is
meant to be as entertaining to read as it is informative. Now let’s
get started.

How to Use This Book xill

UND ER STANul TH E BA SIC!
*
‘

AND E < PpECTAT IONS.

STEP I: GRASP THE FUNDAMENTALS

When it comes to learning how to play poker, many

new players are eager to get straight to tactics. But
before we’re ready to train you on the tables, it’s best
that you grasp money management and have a viable
poker business plan in place. This will equip you with
the understanding and confidence that you're not only
playing responsibly but also giving yourself the best
chance to win long-term.
 We'll start off with the big picture and identify one
meaningful goal on which to focus. Then we'll get practical
and allocate a separate bankroll to poker with discretion-
ary money you can afford to lose, determine which poker
format is best for you, and which stakes you should play.
This process will require work on your end, but I’m
confident it will be worth your while. Establishing a solid
foundation now will ensure you can weather the inevitable
downswings you will face. This is the system | wish | had
when | first started out. Unfortunately, | had to nearly go
broke to learn that bankroll management, record keeping,
and understanding variance were essential elements of
success. If you adopt the principles in the section that fol-
lows, my hope is that you avoid my mistakes.

The Purpose of Poker

The purpose of poker is to win money. It’s simple but not
easy. Your win rate is the difference in skill between you
and your opponents, minus the rake, which is the fee the
rake: the fee the
house takes on every hand. Therefore, we want to ensure
house takes from
your skill set is as sharp as possible.
a player’s hand
My goal is to provide you with the tools and resources to
crush it by condensing my years of experience and the mil-
lions of hands I’ve played down into actionable tactics you
can immediately apply to your next poker session. We'll
do that by focusing on the decision-making process. In the
long run, the quality of your choices will dictate how much
you win. Winners know they can’t control the cards, only
how they play their hands. Therefore, none of their energy
is spent worrying about luck or begrudging bad beats but
rather in preparation for the inevitable, complex decisions
they will face at the table. Preparation is key.

2 The Poker Coach

The Essence of Poker Strategy
Your objective in poker is to play each hand in such a way
that your bets become impossible to decipher. Your main
goal is to make your adversary believe your hand is strong
when it’s weak and weak when it’s strong.
Let’s say you have the best possible holding, referred to
as the nuts. If you bet heavily, leading your opponent to
nuts: having
believe you have a premium hand, they’Il fold, and you won’t
the best
get paid. But if you play your hand in a way that leads them
possible hand
to believe your hand is weak when it’s in fact strong, then
you may make some money. When used habitually, this tactic
can make you too predictable, however. And predictability is
the mark of an amateur. (See Range Balancing on page 138.)
Great players adopt what’s called a balanced approach,
balanced
which refers to betting and checking with both strong and
approach:
weak hands with such a frequency that opponents can never
betting and
quite pinpoint what you have. “Checking” refers to passing
checking with
an action to the player on your left without making a wager.
both strong and
You can check only if no one has placed a bet on the present
weak hands to
“street,” or round of betting. If there is already a bet on the
keep opponents
current street, you may only raise, fold, or call. “Folding”
guessing
refers to dropping out of the hand and losing your bets;
“calling” is matching the highest bet; and “raising” means
increasing the highest previous bet.
Beware: A common misinterpretation of being “balanced”
is believing that you need to bluff and bet for value with an
equal frequency. A “value bet” is when you make a bet in
hopes of winning money from your opponent, based on the
assumption that he’s likely to have a hand worse than yours
that can call your wager. This sometimes leads people to
over-bluff, which is also the by-product of playing too loose
early on in the game, resulting in having too many weak
holdings as the hand progresses.

Step 1: Grasp the Fundamentals 3

 For now, here’s a simple exercise to implement before you begin
making decisions at the poker table: Imagine that you are in your
opponent’s shoes. Before you make your move, ask yourself: “How
would | perceive this bet if |was my opponent?” Chances are, the
way you interpret something is the way your competition will as well.
In poker, as it is in life, we make better decisions when we're able
to relate to others. Having empathy and understanding of someone
else’s situation is a valuable skill that will serve you both on and off
the felt.

Are You Ready to Play?

Author Malcolm Gladwell’s findings suggest it takes roughly
10,000 hours of practice to become a master of your craft. Poker is
no exception. The good news? You can become a solid winner long
before that. That process starts by treating yourself like a professional
and adopting the habits of one. Chess players run simulations to
anticipate their competitors’ moves and athletes watch tapes to pre-
pare for their next opponents. You should be no different.
Lastly, don’t be deceived by the allure of easy cash. While it’s true
that you can win a few thousand dollars in a day, you can lose it, too.
In the long-term, your results will reflect your ability, which is why it’s
imperative that we increase yours as much as possible. Committo _
doing the recommended exercises following each session you play
from now on to help you reach your full potential.

Which Format of Poker Is Right for You?

Just like great tennis players typically prefer grass or clay, most
professional poker players favor either cash games or tournaments.
It’s important to note that in both tennis and poker, only a few players
can excel at everything. | recommend mastering one format before
dabbling in the other, as the strategy can vary widely between cash
games and tournaments. This advice applies even more to those who
are considering learning other variants of poker, such as Pot Limit
Omaha or mixed games.

4 The Poker Coach

ee
ee
Ter

>> IDENTIFYING YOUR PLAYER TYPE <<

Let’s identify which type of poker player you are and assess where
you are currently. In my experience, poker players typically fall into
one of four categories:

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01 - Someone with a steady job who is looking to get
serious about poker.

02 - A 20- or 30-something looking to play poker

full-time or as a side hustle.

03 - An individual who’s retired and looking to play more

in their free time.

04 - A poker professional looking to become more

skilled.

Which one are you? From the thousands of emails and messages
I’ve received, I’d estimate the breakdown is: 60 percent, 20 percent,
15 percent, and 5 percent, respectively. The good news is that the
path to success is largely the same regardless of which category
you fall into. Unless you’re an outlier, you’re a solid professional with
an established business plan, or money is of no concern, | highly
recommend doing all the exercises in this book, as I’ve found this
process to be extremely beneficial for newcomers.

Step 1: Grasp the Fundamentals 5

 PLAYER ASSESSMENT QUIZ
To help you determine which format of poker is most suitable for
you, I’ve created a fun little quiz. And, in the coming sections, we'll
dive deep into the nuances of both cash games and tournaments to
give you further insight.

Answer the following statements with a 1 through 5.

1 = NEVER/NO/INCORRECT

2 = USUALLY NOT/RARELY

3 = SOMETIMES/DEPENDS/SITUATIONAL

4 = USUALLY/PROBABLY/LIKELY

5 = ALWAYS/YES/CORRECT

[@) of ofo ofe oSe abe ode obec ahs ohe ofc ede che cbc obec cde eke ele ake ol
oe Doe GS ce Dice D oe GD oe Die GD oe Doe G oe DG oe GS 0c GS oe Oe GS ve Ove Bue Sve So bred

Online or Live?

| like socializing with other people while playing poker. seca

Picking up on physical tells is a big strength of mine. ee

Sisal

My image plays a big factor in how others perceive me. Eee:

I’m really observant of everything happening around me. Seb OIL

| enjoy being around other people while playing poker. eos

Driving and seeking out a poker game is part of the fun. SSG

Traveling to play poker appeals to me. Sain iano

TOTAL SCORE 2

Tournaments or Cash Games?

| like playing short sessions. snes Gh

| like playing deep stack poker (in which players begin

the game with a large number of chips). SEB
ater

| frequently get tired while playing poker. Cana kere

| get frustrated during long sessions. US SS

| struggle to play my best during a 12-hour session. Riess

| don’t need to be in the spotlight. See

| dislike the highly technical and mathematical

aspect of poker. ee ee

TOTAL SCORE eo
Passive or Aggressive?

| check-raise (checking early in a round in hopes that

someone else will open the betting) my opponents a lot.

| consider myself an aggressive player.

| continuation bet (to bet before and after a flop, or card

dealing) if I’m the original raiser.

| prefer to three-bet (re-raise before a flop) my opponents

rather than flat call (simply call the original bet instead
of re-raising).

| often re-raise people on a bluff.

| prefer gambling with a big draw instead of playing

it conservatively.

| raise when I’m the first one to enter the pot preflop.

TOTAL SCORE

Tight or Loose?

| like to play lots of hands so my opponents can never get

a read on me.

| like playing small suited connectors (cards with high

potential to form straights and flushes in combination
with community cards).

I’m usually one of the most active players at the table.

| play all pocket pairs (two cards from different suits

but having equal value) from any position.
Re ee ee Mee O08 S60 Mee Dies Dive Boe Sve Soe Dice Giese Gice Giese Oo Mee

| frequently call re-raises and bets out of position

(when your opponent will act behind you on future
betting rounds).

| fold to three-bets.

TOTAL SCORE

How Strong Is Your Mental Game?

| tilt while playing poker.

| find myself telling bad beat stories.

Getting sucked out on (losing with a hand that is a

mathematical favorite to win) bothers me.

| lose focus after losing a big hand or taking a bad beat.

| get frustrated toward the end of my sessions.

| notice that my play declines if | play a long time.

I’m bothered about hands | lost even after they are over.

| lack motivation or purpose when | play poker.

| struggle in deciding when to quit.

I’m afraid to bet all my money on a read or if |have

a gut instinct.

TOTAL SCORE

>>

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Are You Living Like a Pro?
| regularly make goals for my poker playing, especially
before each session.

| eat a healthy, balanced, whole foods diet.

| don’t need to drink caffeine while playing poker to

stay alert.

| exercise before | play poker.

I’m highly energized during my poker sessions, feeling

mentally vibrant and alert.

| regularly review hands after my sessions.

| frequently discuss poker with other like-minded,

talented players.

| take breaks to clear my head while at the poker table.

| approach and treat my poker playing like a business.

TOTAL SCORE

Bankroll: Defend It or Run It Up?

| have never gone broke in the past.

| never risk more than 5 percent of my bankroll in any

poker session.

| have financial backing for my poker playing.

| have other sources of income outside of poker.

My poker roll and my life roll are two separate things.

| have a well-thought-out, secure backup plan if | decide

to stop playing poker.
pee Be Dee GB ce BD oe G oe GD oe Goo DG oe DG oe DG oe G ve G oe Give GS oe GS oe OS oe Bos S em

| have well-implemented stop losses that | never exceed.

| keep diligent records of my wins, losses, and expenses.

TOTAL SCORE rs

Score Time!

To make the most out of this exercise, keep these results in mind as
you shape the direction of your poker career. Check back in periodi-
cally to make sure your ambition and actions are continually aligned.
Keep in mind, this is a general guideline and should not be taken as the
absolute truth. Poker is a journey. Experiment on your own to find what
works for you.

Online or Live?

A score of 25 or higher indicates that you prefer live games, while a

score of 15 or lower indicates a preference for online games.

Tournaments or Cash Games?

A score of 25 or higher indicates that you prefer cash games, while a

score of 15 or lower indicates a preference for tournaments. Anything in
between is a hybrid of both. It’s normal to want to play a mixture. Follow
your energy, test, and evaluate.

Passive or Aggressive?

A score of 25 or higher indicates you play in an aggressive style. A 15 or

lower indicates a more conservative approach. Keep this in mind when
taking into account how others perceive you at the table.

>>
lst steideodeshesteodeodestesteteste steode stestestetel
Tight or Loose?

A score of 20 or higher indicates that you may be playing too loose,

while 10 or lower is a bit too tight. The ideal range is between 13 and 18.
Given the choice, it’s better to be too tight than too loose. Even if being
too tight doesn’t maximize profit, it’s still a winning style, whereas if you
are too loose, you will simply bleed away chips.

How Strong Is Your Mental Game?

The lower the score, the better mentally prepared you are to tackle
the game. Ideally, you want a score of 15 or lower. With poker evolving
faster than ever and more information available today than at any prior
point in history, you need to be mentally fit to gain edge over oppo-
nents. The mental game is truly what separates the good players from
the great ones.

Are You Living Like a Pro?

Scores of 40 or higher indicate a well-prepared poker player. If you

score lower than 32, consider making necessary adjustments in areas
of weakness. Success in poker starts when you wake up and ends when
you go to bed. The decisions you make along the way will affect your
ability to play well. Start living like a pro and you will win like one.

Bankroll: Defend it or Run It Up?

Scores of 35 or higher indicate a very well-managed bankroll, leaving

minimum risk for going broke or future financial trouble. If you score
lower than 30, consider altering how you do business. It’s always
better to preserve what you have than to attempt to gain more at the
expense of going broke. And since money is the poker player’s tool, it’s
extremely important to use it effectively to your advantage. Find ways to
diversify and manage your risk so you can outlast downswings.

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Set Your Poker Goal

I'd like to give you the opportunity to set a poker goal for
the next three months. Setting a clearly defined goal gives
meaning to your grind and will keep you focused during the
inevitable setbacks. Why three months? In doing this exer-
cise with clients over the years, I’ve found three months to
be long enough to allow one to make headway but short
enough to see the finish line.
Some people choose a monthly income goal, while for
others it may be traveling to a lucrative destination with
poker paying for it all. Challenge yourself by making this big
and exciting. It should feel difficult but not impossible. Most
importantly, your goal should represent something that truly
matters to you. | like to call this a North Star, the guiding
North Star: your
principle by which one lives one’s life. My North Star is
poker goal;
freedom, excitement, and choices, and | always viewed
what you work
poker as a vehicle to help me live a lifestyle filled with those
to achieve by
elements. As a result, most of my poker goals have been
playing the
centered around traveling to awesome places and having
game
poker pay for it.
Not all poker trips will inspire me to be my best. Setting a
goal to play a tournament at a local casino won’t compel me
to put in even a half hour of studying, but knowing I’m going
to be eating the world’s best paella in Barcelona during the
European Poker Tour will get me in the lab in no time. So it’s
important to understand what motivates you. Being aware of
your emotions when fantasizing about achieving your goal is
the easiest way to tell if you’re on track. If living in that future
reality isn’t compelling you to get on the grind, rethink it.
When done correctly, this should fit into one sentence.
“My goal in poker for the next three months is to make
$2,000 in profit per month” is a common one. Go ahead,
write yours down on the next page.

Step 1: Grasp the Fundamentals 13

My goal for the next three months is:

In the next section, we’ll take actionable steps to turn that dream into
a tangible reality.

Map It Out

A vision is merely an abstract idea. It can only become a reality if

you have a plan for how to achieve it. Having personally done this
exercise many times and having helped guide clients through it as
well, I’ve found that having a well-defined path provides the best
probability of success. Imagine you’re walking through a garden, one
stepping-stone at a time. Those stones represent the mini bench-
marks on the way to your destination. The point is that you need not
worry about the stone you cannot see way off in the distance; the
only thing you can do now is to take the next step and land your foot
solidly on what’s in front of you.
Your goal doesn’t have to be grand. For example, if you want to
play a World Series of Poker event next summer, your next action item
could be mapping out the exact costs involved in your trip. Something
you could do tomorrow is to open a dedicated bank account to save
for the occasion (more on that in the coming section). A good goal
for this week would be to finalize the structure of your poker bank-
roll, determine what format (cash or tournaments) is best for you, and
figure out how often you need to play to save the money required.
Remember, motivation springs from action, not the other way around.
Write down a few action items that you can do immediately to get one
step closer to your goal.

14 The Poker Coach

 p—S

One small thing | can do today:

Tasks for tomorrow: ee

eee

Goal for this week:

Commit to getting clear on the actions you’ve outlined for yourself

before moving forward. It may seem tedious, but it will pay dividends
when you hit those inevitable obstacles.
Knowing your big picture, it’s time to reverse engineer the process
to determine how long you can expect it to take to win the money you
need. But first, we must get clear on exactly how you’re going to do it.

Step 1: Grasp the Fundamentals 15

PLAYING THXAS
MOWLID’
EM 101
Texas Hold’em is a communal card game that can be played with 2 to
10 players. It’s also the most common type of poker game. In Texas
Hold’em, every player is dealt two private cards, meaning only the
person who gets the cards can see them. After a round of betting,
the dealer places three community cards faceup on the felt. A second
round of betting ensues, and then a fourth community card is placed
on the table, faceup. There is a third round of betting before a fifth
community card is dealt. A fourth betting round is the last. Players
then play the best five-card combination they can make using their
two private cards and any of the community cards.

The Button

Even though all casinos have a physical dealer, they use a dealer
“button,” or marker, that represents the player who is supposed to
be dealing. This player also acts last on every round of betting (also
referred to as being “in position”). The “button” rotates clockwise for
each hand that is played. Now let’s dissect the parts of the game in
more detail and some common terms you'll need to know.

Blinds and Antes

The two seats to the left of the dealer post a small blind and big blind,
respectively. “Blinds” are compulsory bets made before the cards
are dealt. This forced ante creates action and incentive for players
to play. The small blind is typically half the unit of the big blind. The
smallest game you can expect to find in a casino is $1/$2 No Limit
Hold’em, and buy-ins are typically 100 times the big blind, or $200.

Dealing the Cards

The two private cards, or “hole cards,” are passed out starting with
the small blind. The action begins with the player to the left of the big
blind, referred to as “under the gun,” or UTG. Here’s where you look
at your cards and decide whether or not you wish to play the hand.

16 The Poker Coach

Preflop: The First Round of Betting

The action continues clockwise until each player has matched the bet
(called “limping”), raised (increased the current bet), or folded (thrown
their cards away). This round of betting is the “preflop.” If a player
does opt to raise, it can be for any amount (hence the name “No
Limit”), but it must be for at least double the size of the previous bet.

The Flop: Three Communal Cards

The dealer will then put out three communal cards, called the “flop.”
Another round of betting begins, starting with the small blind. Being
first to act puts a player at a significant disadvantage. You have both
the option to check (passing the action to the player on your left with-
out waging) and to check-raise (checking early in a round of betting in
hopes that another player opens) at any time.

The Turn

Once this round is complete, a fourth, communal card is placed

faceup. This is called the “turn” and signals another round of betting.

The River

Finally, the last communal card is placed faceup. This is dubbed the
“river” and commences the final round of betting.

Showdown

Players then turn their cards faceup, and the best five-card poker
hand wins.

Burn Cards
In between each round of betting, the dealer will place a card face-
down onto the table as a “burn” card. This card comes from the top
of the deck and is discarded (or burned) to ensure fair play and so
players cannot catch a glimpse of the next card to be dealt.

Step 1: Grasp the Fundamentals 17

Betting

How much a player bets is up to them. At any time, you can decide to
bet all of your chips or move “all in.” As with all bets, you can do this
verbally or by moving your chips across the betting line. Because of
this, it’s extremely important to know what your “stack size” is at all
times as well as the stack of your opponents. The “stack size” is the
amount of money or number of chips in the hands of the player with
the least. A $2,000 stack may sound like a lot, but if the blinds are
$100/$200, that may not be sufficient. It’s common for players to have
different stack sizes; however, you can lose only the amount you have
in front of you. This is called “table stakes.”

Chips

Each casino will have different denomination chips to represent

various units of money. While this will vary by casino, the most typical
structure is:

> White Chips = $1

% Red Chips = $5

Green Chips = $25

Black Chips = $100

Yellow or Orange Chips = $1,000

Pink or Gray Chips = $5,000

Familiarize yourself with the rules and various chip denominations

at your casino before sitting down at the table.

18 The Poker Coach

Plan to Track Your Progress
Record keeping is the ultimate form of accountability in
poker. Bookkeeping can be fun to do after a win, but it’s
when we lose that we most benefit from doing this, for it’s
here where you most need to take an honest look at your
game. When you accurately assess the damage, you can
begin the process of making the necessary adjustments to
do better in the future. It’s difficult to measure progress or
make improvements without data, and record keeping gives
you the statistics you need to get clear on important metrics,
such as your variance, hourly rate, and overall competency
as a player. This data will serve as the foundation for your
action plan to achieve your poker goals.
In short, if you want to make poker a profitable endeavor,
it starts with treating it like you would any other business.
Companies keep records of their profits and losses. Profes-
sionals keep records of their wins and losses. So you keep
records, too.

Keep Records Like a Pro

When | first started tracking my results, the world was a

different place; we didn’t have smartphones with apps. To
keep records, | had to create an Excel spreadsheet with
formulas to keep track of things like hourly rate and BB/100
BB/100:
(a metric used to track win rates), and input my results
a metric that
manually following each session. It can be tedious, but
tracks win rates
it works.
Fortunately, incredible software now exists that automates
this entire process for you. Most people find it easiest to
simply use an app on their smartphones. Both Poker Income
and Run Good are great choices and work for both Android
and Apple operating systems. You can also use Poker Charts
if you prefer desktop software. QuickBooks Online is useful
for keeping track of your overall profit and expenditures, just

Step 1: Grasp the Fundamentals 19

 like you would in any other business. You can categorically
understand your spending, and this is exactly what any
accountant will ask for if you should choose to incorporate
yourself using a legal entity (| use a limited liability corpora-
tion) and file as a professional. This allows you to write off
your losses and expenses against your wins.

Poker Risk and Spending

Before we move forward, it’s imperative to become aware
of the ups and downs, or variance, you'll experience
throughout your evolution as a player. In poker, this is
commonly referred to as swings. While variance will, in
swings: variance
theory, even out over the long run, poker players too often
in poker; the num-
don’t realize just how long that can take. That’s why it’s
ber of ups and
imperative that you be aware of the volatility involved to
downs a player
help you manage your bankroll accordingly. | cannot
can experience
overstate this. You can be the most talented poker player in
during play
the world, but if you overexpose yourself in any one game
or tournament, you will end up broke.
That explains why the casinos have betting limits for
table games. By limiting their exposure in any one hand,
they ensure that they will come out ahead in the long run.
They know that it’s not enough just to be a mathematical
favorite; attention must be paid to the inevitable short-term
variance. My hope is that by highlighting the variance you
can expect to face in each poker format (tournaments and
cash games), you will make a more informed choice about
which game type best suits you and, most importantly,
how to allocate your bankroll in alignment with your risk
tolerance. This will help reduce your chances of going
broke and improve your odds of being a long-term winner.

20 The Poker Coach

Variance in Tournament Poker

In the next two sections, we’ll be working with an online poker vari-
ance calculator, a simple tool that will help you uncover important
metrics such as:

% Estimating potential swings (and planning your bankroll

accordingly)

% Predicting an hourly rate (otherwise referred to as the

“win rate”)

% Determining how long to play to guarantee a profit

% Simulating a best- and worst-case scenario

The variance calculator is a simulator that provides a projection of

what results you can expect based on the metrics entered. To read
the variance calculator, you'll need to be familiar with the following
information (for these simulations, | used PrimeDope.com):

PLAYERS: the number of entrants per tournament

STRUCTURE: the percentage of the field to be paid (e.g., if there are

100 entrants and 10 people are paid, then 10 percent of the field will
be paid)

BUY-IN: the average entry cost per event

FEE: the rake taken by the casino

ROI: the return on investment, or what you can expect to get back
for each dollar invested (e.g., a 100 percent ROI means one can
expect to earn $1 in profit for every $1 you buy into)

NUMBER: the sample size, or number of tournaments, played

Live tournaments are the poker format with the most variance. This is
due to both the nature of tournaments and the fact that, unlike cash
games, it’s difficult to do a large volume, especially in live settings.
In live poker tournaments, the variance can take a lifetime to even
out. Let’s take a look at what the numbers say using a simple poker
variance calculator.

Step 1: Grasp the Fundamentals 21

 PLAYERS » 500

PLACES PAID » 63 (12.6%)

BUY-IN » $5,000

FEE » $300

ROI » $100

TOURNAMENTS PLAYED » 50

SAMPLE SIZE » 10,000

Variance scenario in a year

My goal with the above simulation is to illustrate the variance that

a poker tournament professional can expect to incur in a year. | aim
to be conservative in my estimations, meaning | will estimate the
best-case scenario for one of the world’s top pros. The variance you
will encounter will inevitably be greater, so if these numbers seem
difficult to stomach, tournament poker may not be for you.
| estimated that the major tournaments (World Poker Tour, Euro-
pean Poker Tour, and World Series of Poker) have an average of
500 players per event and pay 63 places, or 13 percent of the field.
| included the industry standard $300 fee for the rake and gave
our professional a 100 percent ROI, which is widely thought to be
higher than the best in the world can achieve. For example, if our
professional buys in an average of $1,000 and has a 100 percent
ROI, he can expect to profit $1,000 per event. | used a sample size
of 10,000 to give us the most accurate results (meaning the variance
calculator will run this simulation 10,000 times). Finally, | assumed our
professional plays 50 major tournaments a year, or one per week.

22 The Poker Coach

 All of my estimations are optimistic, which is to say, the following
sample will produce the best-case scenario for one of the world’s
best players. Amuch more modest assumption should be made when
doing this exercise yourself. Here are the results:

DEPT ARGE EAT LERNER TEP ESTED DE CR SC SCE SAENOL CARTE

BUY-INS + FEES » $265,000 i

i
| EXPECTED VALUE (EV) » $265,000 |
|
I
AVERAGE NET PROFIT » $260,862
|
i|
i (simulated) i

] |
| AVERAGE ROI (simulated) =» = 98% |
|i }|
| STANDARD DEVIATION » $314,691 |
|
| PROBABILITY OF LOSS 22% (2,207 out of
i (simulated) 10,000 samples)

|
| 70%
A CONFIDENCE
oe fétrnulntach » pete
(7,000 out =
ofSS B0/N00samples)
10,000
| -15%-219% ROI
}

|
| Brcict ote $-126,250-$1,047,500
| calidad die >> (9,500 out of 10,000 samples)
| -48%-395% ROI

i $-188,750-$1,615,00
| eye nea » (9,970 out of 10,000 samples)
| © -71%-609% RO!
ii
i

One tourney type, 50 tourneys played in total, 10,000 samples

Step 1: Grasp the Fundamentals 23

 Notice our professional's probability of loss is 22 percent, meaning
he will lose one out of every four years. Even for the years he does
profit, there is no guarantee that he will win an event or even finish in
the top three. He could have simply “min cashed” his way to profit-
ability. This refers to the minimum amount of money handed out ina
tournament. The odds of winning an event are extremely slim and it
could take even the best player years to do so. The incredible vari-
ance in tournament poker should make you think twice about playing
exclusively in tournaments if you value having stable long-term
results.

Variance in Cash Games

Unlike tournament poker, in cash games, players’ variance is substan-

tially reduced for various reasons:

® People typically play with more chips relative to the blinds

(deeper stacks), which allows for greater edges as each
hand offers more decision possibilities.

®% Astable blind structure that never escalates means you

don’t have to force the action or “gamble” in certain spots.

% More hours are spent playing with the same competition

(because tables don’t break as people bust out), allowing
better players to make adjustments and gain an edge.

% The pace of cash games is faster than tournaments (because

more hands are dealt per hour, since people aren’t
“hollywooding”—overdramatizing, stalling, or unnecessarily
tanking), allowing one to reach the long run sooner.

% Table selection (the ability to choose your competition and

quit a game whenever one pleases) allows you to always
ensure you are a favorite in the games.

24 The Poker Coach

 Let’s take a look at how the variance in live cash games compares
to tournaments, again using a variance calculator.

@ WIN RATE
in BB (Big Blinds)/100 ig 40

STANDARD DEVIATION
in BB/100 “i 100
NUMBER OF HANDS |
TO SIMULATE 4 37,500 .

= CALCULATE »

Poker Variance Calculator

Win rates in cash games are measured in big blinds won per
100 hands (BB/100). If you win at 40 BB/100 in a $5/$10 game, you’ve
won 40 x $10 big blinds per 100 hands, or $400. Typically, one or
more players per table wins this amount, making this win rate a lot
more attainable than the one we simulated for tournaments. Roughly
25 hands per hour are played in live poker. To calculate your hourly
win rate, simply divide your BB/100 by 4. In this case, $400/4 = $100
per hour.
The second line, standard deviation, is the variance you can expect
to incur. A looser style will have a higher standard deviation, while
a more solid, tight style will have a lower one. Aiming to be con-
servative, | ran this simulation using a higher-than-normal standard
deviation of 100, meaning these results will reflect a looser playing
style. Lastly, | estimated we will play 37,500 hands per year (25 hands
per hour x 30 hours per week x 50 weeks per year); easily doable for
any poker pro. See the next page for results.

Step 1: Grasp the Fundamentals 25

 ssa PH PEST SPATE PEPE I ETE ST TS ISIS ES TI TS TE ES SY NES NH

EV » 40 BB/100 i
:

i)
i STANDARD DEVIATION » 100 BB/100 /

| | |
| HANDS » 37,500 |
I ]
| |
i EXPECTED WINNINGS » 15,000 BB |
i] i
}
| STANDARD DEVIATION nt 1,936 BB 5.16 .
i
i after Hands BB/100 i
|
[13,064 BB, :
16,936 BB] i
70% CONFIDENCE INTERVAL » i}
[34.84 BB/100,
i i
45.16] BB/100
|I (11,127 BB, |
18,873 BB]
|| 95%% CONFIDENC E INTERVAL » baer netod
I 50.33 BB/100]
PROBABILITY OF LOSS
» 0%
9

after 37,500 Hands

PROBABILITY OF RUNNING
at or above observed win rate
(0.00 BB/100) over » 100%
37,500 hands with a true win rate
of 40.00 BB/100

PROBABILITY OF RUNNING
1] at or below observed win rate
i (0.00 BB/100) over » 0%
37,500 hands with a true win rate
of 40.00 BB/100

MINIMUM BANKROLL
for less than 5% risk of ruin ie 374 BB

Poker Variance Calculator Results

26 The Poker Coach

 The fourth row represents our expected winnings, which are
15,000 BB, equivalent to $150,000 if playing $5/$10 No Limit Texas
Hold’em. Now let’s compare these results to the tournament poker
equivalent. Assuming that we average a $1,000 buy-in per multi-table
tournament (MTT), the expectation with a 100 percent ROI and a
50-tournament sample size is roughly $50,000. If that same pro had
the option to play an equal-size cash game ($5/$10 No Limit Hold’em
with a $1,000 buy-in), they could expect to make three times that
amount with zero probability of loss, as opposed to the 22 percent
from tournaments.
Before moving forward, determine your annual expectation of play-
ing cash games versus tournaments using records from your previous
sessions. Getting clear on your potential earnings will help you plan
for your goals.
Never kept records and don’t know where to start? Assuming
you’re a consistent winning poker player, simulate a 20 percent ROI
for tournaments. For cash games, simulate a 15 BB/100 win rate. Both
of these would be results one should be proud to achieve. If you are
new to poker, chances are you won't (yet) be a winning player. All the
more reason to proceed with caution and risk only money you can
afford to lose.
Next, estimate how many hours you play per year and keep the
standard deviation at 100. When deciding what format of poker is
best for you, remember that ROI isn’t the only thing to consider. Your
mental state of mind and your probability of loss count, too.

Creating Your Poker Bankroll

When it comes to creating your bankroll, the financial resources used

to fund your poker playing, the most important thing is to risk only
money you can afford to lose. Even if you are a responsible player
intent on showing a profit, the odds of winning long-term make
startups look like safe bets, which means only fools don’t plan for the
worst-case scenario. Since finances are often a family matter, having
support from those around you is key. Discuss your investments with
your significant other before moving forward.

Step 1: Grasp the Fundamentals 27

 How much can you afford to allocate toward poker? Write the
number down below.

My dedicated poker bankroll is:

| like to think of my poker bankroll as | would a stock portfolio. One

of the golden rules of investing is to diversify. Since there’s already
plenty of inherent risk in poker, | like to take a more conservative and
sustainable approach by allocating most of my poker bankroll to cash
games. The breakdown you decide upon will ultimately depend on
your personal financial situation and goals. Some useful questions to
ask yourself are:

* How much variance am | comfortable with?

% How will losing for a long period of time affect my ability to

play my A game?

® What will happen if |lose my bankroll? Can | replenish it

through some other means, or do | have only one shot
at poker?

Since poker requires operating capital, you will need to set aside a
portion of your bankroll for expenses (e.g., gas, food, subscriptions,
travel, coaching, etc.). | recommend that my clients start with a
70/20 split between cash games and tournaments, leaving 10 percent
for expenditures.
Take time to determine how you will divide your bankroll before
moving forward. Write it down here.

My poker bankroll will be divided as follows:

CASH GAMES:

TOURNAMENTS:

EXPENSES:

28 The Poker Coach

 The only way to have a real poker bankroll is to separate it from
your life roll. Doing so is simple. Go to your bank, open a checking
account, and wire the entirety of your poker bankroll into it. Do this
before playing your next session. | can’t stress enough how much of a
game changer it is to physically have your poker bankroll in a sepa-
rate account. You can say your bankroll is $10,000, but it’s not really
$10,000 until it’s in your poker bank account.
lf you’ve decided to play both cash and tournaments, you may
consider opening a second checking account and dividing your poker
money between the two based on the percentages you have previ-
ously chosen. Finally, consider opening a savings account to be used
exclusively for expenses.
To make tracking your spending a breeze, you may want to open
a dedicated credit card that’s exclusively used with this savings
account. Then sync it with QuickBooks Online so all your transactions
appear automatically. Use this card as often as possible, even if it
means pulling it out at the table instead of taking money from your
stack to pay for a meal. If you do pay in cash, write it down and input
it manually into QuickBooks.
Over time, the numbers and percentages in your accounts will
invariably change. Just like holding a stock portfolio, rebalancing is
an important part of the required ongoing maintenance. Try keeping
the numbers within 15 percent of the intended structure, and check
in monthly.
Let’s take a look at an example of how to rebalance a bankroll. In
month one, John wins $3,000 in cash games, loses $600 in tourna-
ments, and has $600 in expenses. His new bankroll looks like this:

CASH GAMES: $10,000 (85%)

TOURNAMENTS: $1,400 (12%)

EXPENSES: $400 (3%)

TOTAL BANKROLL: $11,800

Step 1: Grasp the Fundamentals 29

 To rebalance, simply multiply the total bankroll by the desired
percentages of each category, then physically move the money
between accounts.

CASH GAMES: 70% x $11,800 = $8,260

TOURNAMENTS: 20% x $11,800 = $2,360

EXPENSES: 10% x $11,800 = $1,180

Naturally, you may hit a big tournament score or book a quick series
of wins, causing these numbers to change dramatically. You may
also decide to take money out of your poker bankroll. Rebalance as
necessary. As with everything, you’ll get more comfortable with the
process as you go along.

Which Stakes Should | Play?

Let’s assume you've allocated $10,000 toward your poker bankroll,

broken down as follows:

CHECKING A—CASH GAMES: $7,000 (70%)

CHECKING B—TOURNAMENTS: $2,000 (20%)

SAVINGS—EXPENSES: $1,000 (10%)

Now it’s time to determine what “stakes,” or game size, you should
play. The number of buy-ins you will need depends largely on which
poker format you play. The more variance you stand to incur, the
more of a bankroll you’ll need to stay in action.

30 The Poker Coach

 The following suggestions are just guidelines. Bankroll manage-
ment should be personalized, and factors such as risk tolerance,
ability to replenish your bankroll, and playing style are important vari-
ables to consider when deciding what stakes are right for you. Here
are the absolute minimum bankroll recommendations for live poker:

CASH GAMES: 25 buy-ins

TOURNAMENTS: 50 buy-ins

When you win enough to have sufficient buy-ins at the next level, you
can move up in stakes.

>> YOU’LL WANT TO KNOW THIS! <<

Setting a Stop Loss

A stop loss is a set amount of money you decide to risk in a given

session. | recommend starting by limiting yours to three buy-ins, or
no more than 5 percent of your cash game bankroll. Bring to the
casino only what you can afford to lose and leave any ATM cards at
home to avoid overspending.

A word to the wise: Just because you set a three-buy-in stop loss
doesn’t mean you have to lose it all before quitting. If you’re feeling
tired, you’re feeling frustrated, or you aren’t playing your best,
walk away. A strategy I’ve used over the years is to quit 30 minutes
before | think | should. It’s better to leave some money on the table
than walk away with none at all.

Step 1: Grasp the Fundamentals 31

The Role of Luck in Poker and Life
It wouldn’t be fair to write a poker book without acknowledging the
role of luck. Luck is the object on which good fortune is supposed to
depend. In poker, your long-standing fate, however, is not determined
by chance but rather the quality of your decisions. Let’s take a look at
what this means to you.

Equity vs. Probability

Poker shows us how to think in terms of equity or probability. It’s

almost never 100 percent or O percent that you will win a hand but
somewhere in between. Even if you are dealt two aces, you'll only win
the pot roughly 80 percent of the time. We then make bets in relation
to our odds. The better they are, the more we wager.
Outcomes in poker have variance due to randomness. Unlike other
fields (e.g., chess), you can make the right decision and still lose.
Where people go wrong is in becoming biased by the results. They
may conclude that they made the wrong decision because they lost
the hand, or a good decision because they won. This is called being
“results oriented.” “I won the hand, didn’t |?” is the quintessential justi-
fication for a bonehead play.
Poker teaches us to separate the facts from the noise by evaluating
decisions based on their merits instead of their outcomes. Your results
are based on the quality of your choices, so it’s imperative that we’re
focused on making winning ones. | work closely with individuals to help
them better understand the role that luck plays in poker in both the
short- and long-term. If you are prepared both mentally and financially
for the inevitable ups and downs you will encounter, you'll be better
equipped to ride out the waves instead of drowning in the current.

Seeing It in Action

Variance calculators prove that poker is not a game of luck but rather
a game of skill with an element of luck, whose presence is rapidly
diminished the longer you play. Just like a fair coin will eventually
land on both heads and tails with an equal frequency, your luck in
poker evens out over time. In the end, it’s those who make the best

32 The Poker Coach

decisions that come out ahead. My hope in highlighting this is to
extinguish excuses for why you may be losing. If you’ve been losing
at poker for a long period of time, there’s a strong probability you’re
simply not (yet) a profitable player. To improve, we must start by
taking full responsibility for the outcome.
Despite being a game of skill, luck and poker are intricately linked
and, in the short-term, luck often prevails. Other areas of life work the
same way. Stock trades, investments, and sports bets can all go in
favor of even a complete beginner if they happen to pick the winner.
On any individual hand or trade, luck may triumph, but given a large
enough sample size, its role is virtually nonexistent. Why, then, are
people willing to attribute success to skill in a field like investing yet
quick to dismiss poker as a game of chance? Perhaps it’s because
the role of luck is experienced so immediately on the felt. We’re dealt
our cards, place our bets, and promptly see the results. The feedback
loop is immediate. In the coming sections, I'll walk you through the
necessary tactics for separating the facts from the noise and how to
make winning long-term plays.

Step 1: Grasp the Fundamentals 33

STEP 2: BUILDING YOUR STRATEGY

Now that you have a clear goal and an idea of the

stakes you should be playing, it’s time to jump into the
tactics you need to outplay the competition.
Basic Poker Concepts
There are a few basic poker principles you will need to understand to
build your foundation as a smart player. They will also help you grasp
the poker math you need to make profitable decisions. While there
are many concepts to grasp on your journey to becoming a poker
crusher, these core concepts are a foundation for all the other tactical
decisions you’ll make. As with so many other disciplines, from foot-
work in tennis to strokes in swimming, mastering the fundamentals is
essential for your success.

Core Concept #1: Position

It takes but a few sessions of No Limit Hold’em to realize that “posi-

tion” isn’t a part of poker, it is poker. In poker, position refers to the
order in which players are seated around the table. Players who act
first are in “early position.” There are “middle position” and “late
position,” too. If you’re in late position, you have the most information
available to you on your opponents—which is how you win. Just as it
pays to act last in negotiating, the same is true on the felt. By observ-
ing what your opponent does first, you gain additional information
about their probable holdings. Therefore, aim to play as many hands
as possible in position to start with an advantage.
Playing in position allows you to control the tempo of the hand. If
you have a really strong hand, sometimes referred to as a “monster,”
you can bet (or raise your opponent) to build a pot. Alternatively, you
can elect to trap your opponent by flat calling to let them continue
bluffing. Being last to act also means you will get to showdown more
frequently, thereby allowing you to realize the equity of your hands.
Lastly, hands are easier to play when you’re in position, meaning
you'll make fewer mistakes.
Since strategy will change depending on your position, each seat
has a distinct label.

36 The Poker Coach

 id

POSITION AND PREFLOP PLAY

Almost without exception, the strength of your hand and the value
you can get from it will depend on your position, and you will need to
adjust your strategy accordingly. | call this “positional awareness.” To
illustrate this concept, we’re going to dive into the first of many hand
examples in this book. I'll be using shorthand to describe the action,
which reflects how poker hands are typically shared online.
Poker hands are always written out using numbers for cards
between two to nine, and letters for tens to aces. Suits are abbre-
viated using the first letter and written after each card, whereas a
suited hand (but not a specific suit) is written with an “s” after both
cards. Here are some examples:

POCKET TWOS = 22

POCKET JACKS = JJ

ACE OF DIAMONDS AND TEN OF DIAMONDS = AdTd

ACE AND TEN, SUITED = ATs

Step 2: Building Your Strategy 37

 Now let’s take a look at two common preflop examples to illus-
trate this concept. Preflop (see page 84) is the round of betting that
occurs once you receive your first two cards. In a $2/$5 No Limit (NL)
cash game, the Hero (you) opens in first position (“Under the Gun” or
“UTG”) with two black jacks (written JcJs) to $15 and faces a re-raise
(a “three-bet”) from the big blind to $65. In this scenario, pocket jacks
should be played with extreme caution. This is due to ranges, or the
possible hands each player can have at this point in time. (For more
on ranges, see Core Concept #3: Hand Ranges on page 46.) The
Hero’s opening range UTG should be narrow, and therefore, the big
blind’s three-betting range should be strong in relation to it.
Furthermore, most players simply aren’t capable of bluffing in this
spot. When they re-raise a UTG opener from the big blind, they’ve
got a very strong hand. While there are exceptions, the range of
your opponent (referred to as “Villain”) will typically look something
like this: QQ, KK, AA, and AK. (This can also be written as “QQ+, AK,”
where the “+” represents better hands within that category. For exam-
ple, QQ+ means QQ, KK, and AA, whereas ATs+ means ATs, AJs, AQs,
and AKs.)
When writing out ranges, offsuit hands (in which you are dealt two
cards from different suits) are categorized separately, denoted by an
“o” after the hand (AQo), whereas suited hands are categorized with
an “s” (JTs). We do that to help us further distinguish which hands our
opponent can have. There are almost always fewer offsuit hands in
your opponent’s range, as players typically favor suited cards.
Lastly, specific letters are used to represent suits: “H” for hearts,
“C” for clubs, “D” for diamonds, and “S” for spades. “S” can also
simply mean a hand is suited but doesn’t specify which suit (as
in “ATs” for ace and ten, suited). However, if a hand is specifically
spades, we write “s” after each card, as in “AsTs.” “X” is used to
denote any random card that accompanies the former card. For exam-
ple, Ax means an ace with an undefined second card, often referred
to as a “kicker.”
To visualize ranges and determine your equity, or probability of
winning, you can use a hand range chart, available on any poker
equity calculator. My favorite is PokerCruncher, which is available
for desktop computers and mobile devices. A poker equity calcula-
tor determines your chance of winning the hand at any given time.

38 The Poker Coach

Simply enter your hand in line one and your opponent’s range of hands
in the second line, hit calculate, and voila! As you can see, two jacks
offers roughly 36 percent equity against your opponent’s range of
QQ+ and AK.

Hand Range — 2 Players

HAND RANGE EQUITY COMBINATIONS

36.17%

2.56%
63.83%
(34/1326 combos)

A5s | A4s | A3s | A2s

= =
K5s K4s K3s | K2s

eet pern
Q@5s | Q4s | Q3s | Q2s
lees eae

J5s J4s J3s J2s

| es | 4 :
T5s T4s T3s T2s
[Sa
aga bas = aioe PS aes el

95s | 94s 93s 92s

ane Gan —— = sia |

85s 84s 83s 82s

— He :# = ij
‘*. Se

75s 74s 73s 72s

oe | ee 2 4

540 44 43s 42s

. j 4 : : 4

A26-+-K20 | Q20 | J20 | T2o0 920 820 | 720 | 620 : 520 | 420 | 320 22
| EES
2a ee a Lee eee | | aE Lees See eeSD

Note; Only the hands highlighted in gold are part of the player’s hand range.
Villain’s range in gold.

Step 2: Building Your Strategy 39

The hands highlighted in yellow represent all the hands in your
opponent’s range. The numbers listed underneath each hand rep-
resent the possible combinations of that hand. We'll discuss this
more in Step 4, Counting Combos on page 102. Depending on your
opponent’s skill level, your stack size, and implied odds, you should
most likely call with JJ in the example above but primarily in hopes
of flopping three of a kind, also called a “set.” Postflop, you may call
down once on boards that don’t contain an ace or king, and fold to
any further action.
In the second scenario, imagine you open with JcJs on the button
and face a three-bet from the small blind (SB). Unlike in the first
example, you can happily continue here. In fact, your hand is so
strong that you could consider re-raising again (called “four-betting”)
for value. Again, this is due to ranges. Since you will open the button
with roughly 40 percent of hands, the Villain could theoretically be
three-betting many hands worse than pocket jacks.
Naturally, the small blind’s three-betting range will vary by player
and circumstance, but it should be around 13 percent of hands and
look something like this: 66+, A4s+, KTs+, QTs+, J9s+, T9s, AJot+, and
KQo. Running this through the same equity calculator will prove the
Hero’s equity is roughly 62 percent against this range, or nearly twice
what it was in the former example.
The phenomenon that the same hand can have nearly twice the
equity on the button as it does UTG is due to the fact that the range
of hands people will play varies dramatically by the position of all
the players involved. As a general rule, the earlier you act, the more
credit you will receive for a strong hand. A player opening in later
position, however—especially the button—will get far less credit.

POSITION AND POSTFLOP PLAY

The importance of position is amplified during postflop play (see

page 95) due to the playability of the hand and the potential for you
to realize your equity by getting to showdown. The same two hands,
when played in position versus out of position, can have dramatically
different results. Let’s take a look at a hand my client sent me to help
illustrate this point.

40 The Poker Coach

HERO WHEN OUT OF POSITION

The Hero is dealt QsJs to the right of the dealer (called the “cutoff” or
“CO”) and opens to $15 in a $2/$5 NL cash game. The button (Villain)
calls with JcTc.

POT: $37

FLOP: 9c 8s 4d

Hero bets $20, and the button calls.

TURN: 9d

The Hero, afraid the Villain could have a 9, opts to check. The Villain
takes the opportunity to bet and forces the Hero to fold the best hand.

To help my client better understand the importance of position, |

posed this simple hypothetical exercise: Keep both players’ holdings
and actions the same, but simply reverse their positions to see how
this hand plays out.

HERO WHEN IN POSITION

The Villain raises in the cutoff to $15 with JcTc, and the Hero calls the
button with QsJs.

POT: $37

FLOP: 9c 8s 4d

VILLAIN BETS $20, AND THE HERO CALLS.

TURN: 9d

The Villain, afraid the Hero could have a 9, opts to check. The Hero
takes the opportunity to represent a 9 with a bet and forces the
Villain to fold the best hand.

Step 2: Building Your Strategy 4

This example illustrates the incredible power of position. We have
two equally skilled players and the exact same board, but by merely
inversing their position, it changed who won the pot. Keep in mind
that poker isn’t merely about the hand you have but what you can
represent. Being in position gives you the opportunity to represent
more hands, control the action, and get to showdown more fre-
quently, thereby allowing you to win more pots, all while making
fewer mistakes.
Aim to play as many hands in position as possible. (in Preflop Play,
page 84, you'll learn exactly which hands to play from every position.)

Core Concept #2: Hand Types

Poker strategy is extremely complex, and because no two situations

are the same, every hand requires a nuanced approach. That being
said, there are general strategies you can apply to help simplify your
decision-making process, as the correct play is often determined by
the type of hand you have.
Hands are commonly divided into four classes, in order of strength
with a designated strategy for each. Together, they form “ABCV.”

% Air

% Bluffs or semi-bluffs

® Checks and calls

% Value

Let’s take a look at each category in detail, along with the appropriate
strategy.

AIR

Hands that have little to no value and should be checked and/or

folded when facing any action. Example: Hero raises preflop in mid
position with JcTc, and both the button and big blind (BB) call.

FLOP: As 7s 6d

42 The Poker Coach

Q ANALYSIS: Not only did the Hero not improve, but it’s conceivable
that at least one of his opponents has a hand they can continue with. Any
ace, straight draw, or flush draw will call at least one bet, and since there
are no good turns for his hand, the Hero should simply give up this pot by
check-folding.

BLUFFS

Hands that flop decent equity should be played as bets, with the plan
of continuing to bluff on favorable turns and rivers (the last cards
dealt). Betting with a draw in hopes of improving on a later street is
called a “semi-bluff.” Typically, bluffs have little showdown value and
can benefit from betting, as an opponent may fold a better hand, yet
when called, you still have a solid chance of winning the pot.
A semi-bluff differs from a complete bluff, which is betting with little
or no equity (as would be the case in the previous example). When
choosing which hands to bet with, pick the ones with the most equity,
as they will have the greatest potential of winning the pot. Example:
Hero raises on the cutoff with QsJs, and the big blind calls.

FLOP: 9s 8d 4c

The big blind checks.

© ANALYSIS: This is an opportune situation for the Hero to bet as a semi-bluff.

Not only is he heads-up and can win the pot outright if his opponent folds,
but many turn cards will give him additional equity. For example, any queen
or jack will give the Hero top pair (likely to be the best hand), a ten will make
him the nuts (the best hand possible), and any spade will give him a flush
draw. Furthermore, the Hero can represent a king or ace, as these cards
are more likely to be in the Hero’s flop c-betting range than the Villain’s flop
check-calling range.

As you can see, winning players are thinking one step ahead about what they
will do on all future cards before making any bets, taking into consideration not
only which cards will help them but which cards they can represent as well.

Step 2: Building Your Strategy 43

CHECKS AND CALLS

This category of hand is reserved for those that are too strong to
fold but not strong enough to bet. These hands should be played
as checks, planning to call bets to pick off bluffs. This strategy also
serves to control the size of the pot. Example: Hero opens preflop in
mid position (MP) with KsJs, and gets called by the button.

FLOP: As Kh 4d

© ANALYSIS: The Hero stands to gain little from betting. He doesn’t benefit
from protecting his hand, as very few hands in the Villain’s range can improve
to beat the Hero. This is a classic example of a situation where one is either
way ahead or way behind. In these circumstances, checking is typically the
best option. (We'll discuss this concept in further detail in Step 5, When to
Value Bet on page 119.) Second, the majority of hands that call a bet will con-
tain an ace, so betting KsJs on this flop gains little value from worse hands.
Finally, checking this flop allows the Hero to feign weakness and potentially
pick off bluffs from the Villain. The Hero also keeps the pot small (referred to as
having “pot control”) and doesn’t open the door to getting raised, which would
force him to fold.

VALUE

These are strong hands that should be played aggressively in hopes

of getting value from weaker holdings and protecting against poten-
tial draws.

EXAMPLE: The Hero raises preflop with JcJs in the cutoff, and the
Villain calls from the big blind.

FLOP: 9d 6d 2c

The big blind checks.

© ANALYSIS: The Hero has a clear bet. Not only is he a mathematical favorite
for having the best hand, but he can also get called by many worse hands,
such as any pair, straight draw, or flush draw. Furthermore, on a coordinated

44 The Poker Coach

board such as this one (called a “wet board”), the Hero needs to protect his
hand with a strong bet. Thinking ahead, the Hero should plan to bet heavily on
turns that don’t contain diamonds (called “blanks”), both to get value from his
opponent's weaker pairs and to further charge draws.

Get in the habit of identifying your hand type at any point in time. While there
are exceptions to the rule, knowing which hand type you have and the most
appropriate way to play it will help you avoid mistakes and allow you to make
profitable plays.

>> THE IMPORTANCE OF GAME SELECTION <<

Your win rate in poker is the difference in skill between you and
your opponents, minus the rake. Since a professional is defined
as someone who makes their living playing poker, technically, the
tenth-worst player in the world could be a pro if he can find the
bottom nine to play with consistently. Likewise, the tenth-best player
in the world would get crushed if he sat with the very best. In fact,
some of the most successful cash game professionals aren’t those
with the greatest talent but rather those who regularly play in the
best games. —

This phenomenon explains why deciding who you choose to play

poker with (called “game selecting”) is one of the most crucial fac-
tors in determining your bottom line. Unlike other sports, where you
may be forced to play against other teams or opponents, in poker,
you are free to choose the competition, particularly in cash games. If
you aspire to be a winning poker player, be humble about your skill
level and select only games with at least three inferior players. Ide-
ally, you want to be one of the top three to ensure you are beating
the rake and have a significant edge over your competition.

Step 2: Building Your Strategy 45

 Core Concept #3: Hand Ranges

From the time Texas Hold’em was invented in the early

1900s, poker players, even professionals, used to hand
read by putting their opponents on a single hand. However,
the new-school way uses a hand range, which represents
hand range:
all the possible holdings one can have at a given time. The
a combination of
concept of a hand range makes intuitive sense, as almost
hands a player
every opponent will play multiple hands the exact same
might have at a
way. And since it’s impossible to distinguish one hand from
given time
another except for a mere guess, accounting for all of your
opponents’ possible holdings at any given time is the most
thorough way to hand read.
Let’s take a trivial example to illustrate this concept. Your
opponent raises under the gun (UTG) to $15 in a $2/$5 NL
cash game. Real quick, what do you put him on?

Write it down here:

You may have written down pocket aces. And you’d

be right but only partially. While he can have two aces,
couldn’t he just as easily have two kings? Or two queens?
Or ace-king? Beginning to think about poker in terms of a//
the possible hands your opponent can have gives you the
complete picture.
Let’s try this again. Assuming you’re playing against a
solid, tight player, what is his hand range for opening UTG?
If you’re still drawing a blank, what do you believe the cor-
rect opening range should be?

Write it down here:

You may have said something like pocket sevens or

better, jack-ten suited or better, ace-queen offsuit or
better, broadway suited aces, and a few bluffs, like a
suited ace. That hand range would be written out like this:
77+, ATs+, A5s-A4s, KQs, QJs, JTs, and AQo+. As you can
see, putting the Villain on two aces is very incomplete.

46 The Poker Coach

With 108 combinations of hands in the Villain’s range, representing
8.14 percent of the deck, there are only six combinations of pocket
aces (or any pair). Therefore, two aces represent a mere “5 percent
of the hands your opponent can hold (6/108 = 5.5%). This illustrates
why putting your opponent on one specific hand instead of a range
of hands is extremely inaccurate, and why you must begin to think in
terms of ranges.
The concept doesn’t apply to preflop play only but in all circum-
stances. Let’s take a look at a hand one of my clients sent me, which
represents a common situation you may encounter. In a $2/$5 NL
cash game, the Villain raises UTG to $15, and the Hero calls with AhJh
on the button.
The board runs out Jd, Tc, 2d, 3h, and 6d. The Hero has called a
$25 flop bet and a $50 turn bet, and is now facing a $150 bet on the
river. What should he do?
Before going any further, what does your intuition say? Circle the
best answer here.

FOLD CALL RAISE

We’ll get to the correct answer in a minute, but first, we must identify
our opponent’s hand range. Keep in mind that your opponent’s range
on the river can only consist of hands he would play on all previous
streets, starting with preflop. Therefore, he cannot have a hand like
54s, based on our assumption that he wouldn't raise under the gun
with that hand.
One of the keys to better understanding hand ranges is being
aware that once a hand is eliminated from your opponent’s range,
it’s gone forever. Therefore, hand ranges can only shrink in size; they
can never get wider. This is why I’ve coined the term “Hand Range
Funnel,” as hand ranges follow that exact shape: They start wide (pre-
flop) and get progressively narrower as the hand continues. | discuss
this in more detail on page 99.
To determine his river range, you must figure out which part of
that preflop range is going to bet all three streets. Evaluate your
worst-case scenario. Include all the strong hands in the Villain’s range
while keeping your opponent’s bluffs to a minimum. Then, if you’re
still getting the right price to call, you’re sure it’s a profitable play. In

Step 2: Building Your Strategy 47

short, being conservative ensures you’re always keeping the odds in
your favor.

Give this a try on your own before we review it together. Write out the

Villain’s river hand range here:

Here’s what | believe is a reasonable hand range for the Villain: JJ,
TT, KQs, JTs, AdKd, AdQd, Ad5d, Ad4d, and maybe some complete
bluffs, such as AKo with a diamond. It’s normal if this doesn’t come to
you immediately. With practice, you'll become more proficient at this
exercise and will be able to visualize ranges in real time.

*PRO TIP: Anytime your equity is over 50 percent, you should at least call
the river, as you will always be getting sufficient pot odds. We’ll talk more
about how to determine if you’re getting the right price to call based on your
equity in the section about pot odds on page 51.

48 The Poker Coach

 >> YOU’LL WANT TO REMEMBER THIS! <<

Three Odd Facts about Playing Cards

01 - There is no clear consensus on when playing cards

were first developed. However, experts suspect
they date back to 13th-century China. It’s also
believed the Chinese were the first to use suits,
which represented money. The four suits of a
modern deck, however, are thought to derive from
France, where the suits represent the four classes
of society. Spades stand for nobility, hearts repre-
sent the clergy, diamonds stand for merchants or
vassals, and clubs represent the peasants.

O2 - There are 52 cards in a deck, just like there are

52 weeks in a year. And if you add up all the sym-
bols in a deck of cards, the sum is 365, the same
number of days in a calendar year.

03 - Each time you shuffle a deck of cards, it’s virtually

impossible that two decks have been arranged that
way before. A deck of 52 cards can be ordered in
52 different ways. Written long hand, that’s 52 x
51 x 50 x 49, etc. This makes logical sense; there
are 52 ways to choose the first card, followed by
51 ways to choose the second, 50 for the third,
and so on. So just how large of a number is 52? It’s
bigger than 8 x 10°”. To put that into perspective,
someone shuffling a deck of cards once per second
since the beginning of the universe (“14 billion
years ago) would have shuffled the deck less than
10" times. For comparison, there are only 107° stars
in the entire known universe, making 8 x 10° an
unfathomably large number.

Step 2: Building Your Strategy 49

Mastering Poker Math
Now it’s time to tackle the poker math. My goal is to make this.as fun
and simple as possible, but like with anything, getting comfortable
crunching numbers in real time will take practice. Commit to working
through this until it becomes second nature, as it’s essential to your
success on the felt. Following the principles outlined in this section,
I’m confident you’ll be able to do things like calculate the probabilities
in real time, determine your equity, and make profitable decisions to
keep the odds in your favor.

Probability

Contrary to what some people believe, you don’t need to memorize

the probability of being dealt every specific hand and you don’t use
this information to make decisions in poker. That said, here are the
most common Texas Hold’em probabilities, with the most practical
being the odds of flopping a set.

% Being dealt a pocket pair: 16:1 or 5.9%

% Being dealt a specific pocket pair, such as two aces:

220:1 or 0.5%

% Being dealt two suited cards: 3.25:1 or 23.5%

% Flopping three of a kind (“set”) when holding a pocket

pair: 7.5:1 or 11.8%

% Pairing at least one of your hole cards on the flop:

21:1 or 32.4%

% Pairing both of your hole cards on the flop: 49:1 or 2%

% Flopping a flush draw when holding two suited cards:

7.5:1 or 11.8%

% Flopping a flush with two suited cards: 118:1 or 0.8%

50 The Poker Coach

While it may be interesting, it doesn’t practically offer much help to
know that the odds of being dealt aces are 220:1. What decision
does this help you make (other than perhaps to be extremely patient,
as you can only expect to be dealt this hand about once every nine
hours)? It’s far more useful in terms of understanding your outs, how
to calculate your equity, and being able to compare the odds of
hitting your hand to your pot odds, something we'll cover at length
in this section.

Pot Odds

Pot odds are simply the ratio of the amount of money currently in the
pot to the amount of money you must pay to make the call. They are
expressed in a ratio of risk to reward. The big number (on the left of
the ratio) is always the reward, whereas the smaller number (on the
right of the ratio) is what you need to risk. For example, if the pot
is $100 and your opponent bets $100, you have to call $100 to win
a total pot of $200. Your pot odds therefore are $200 (which rep-
resents your reward) to $100 (which represents the amount of money
you have to risk). Your pot odds are therefore 2:1.

POT: $100

BET: $100

POT ODDS = (Pot + Bet) / Bet

POT ODDS = ($100 + $100) / $100

POT ODDS = 2:1

If the pot were $300 instead of $200, your pot odds would be
$300 to $100, or 3:1. Get in the habit of reducing your pot odds to the
simplest fraction, as this will help you determine the equity you need
to justify calling a bet.

Step 2: Building Your Strategy 51

Converting Pot Odds to a Percentage

Converting pot odds to a percentage is a pro tip that will help you
determine the best course of action. This is arguably the most impera-
tive step in the decision-making process.
To convert your pot odds to a percentage, simply divide 1 by the
sum of the fraction. If, for example, your pot odds are 2:1, to convert to
percentage, divide 1 by (2 + 1), or 1/3, giving you 33 percent pot odds.
To avoid doing this calculation in real time, you can simply commit the
most common pot odds scenarios to memory, like you would a multi-
plication chart in grade school.
A prerequisite to calculating your pot odds is being aware of the
pot size at all times. | stay on top of this by adding up the pot in real
time, after the current bets are made and before the dealer burns and
turns. Then you simply memorize how your opponent’s bet size trans-
lates into the pot odds you are receiving.
Here is a chart for your reference.

BET SIZE POT ODDS PERCENTAGE

Yq (Ex. Bet $25

into $100)
5:1 ($125:$25) 16.7% (1/(5+1))

V3 POT 4:1 20%

VY2 POT 3 25%

2/3 POT 2.5:1 28%

¥%q POT Ziae 30%

FULL POT Pa 33%

15x, PO 1.67:1 38%

2x POT shy 40%

4.3

52 The Poker Coach

Using the chart above, you would immediately know that if your
opponent bets $100 into a pot of $300, your pot odds are 4:1, and
therefore your break-even point, or the equity you need to justify
calling the bet, is 20 percent.

Step 2: Building Your Strategy 53

 >> SHHH... IT’S A SECRET <<

The Four-Two Rule

A simple trick the pros use to calculate their equity is the four-two rule. It
works like this:

+ On the flop, multiply your outs by four.

¢ On the turn, multiply your outs by two.

It’s not completely accurate, but in most situations, it’s close enough. Use
this rule as a baseline when you need a quick way to calculate your equity
in real time. For example, if you have a flush draw on the flop (i.e., nine
outs), your chance of making the best hand is 9 x 4, or 36 percent. On the
turn, your equity would be 9 x 2, or 18 percent.

If you have a backdoor (meaning you can win if you hit two cards in a row)
open-ended straight draw, for example, when holding QdJd on a Td, 6d,
and 2c board, you can add one additional out for each backdoor draw you
have. Therefore, your equity would be improved to 10 x 4 = 40 percent.

Use judgment to determine whether your pair-outs are live, like in the sit-
uation above. If your opponent is holding AT, for example, then both your
queen and jack should be included when counting your outs, giving you
six additional outs, for a total of 16. If, instead, you’re up against two aces,
they shouldn’t be included.

Unsure whether your over cards are live or not? A simple—although not
perfect—shortcut is to simply assume it’s 50/50. Therefore, you’d only
count three of the six possible pair-outs for an approximation of 13 total
outs. For flop situations where your number of outs is greater than 8,

54 The Poker Coach

the four-two rule will be slightly off; therefore, a more accurate formula
is: Equity = (Number of Outs x 4) — (Number of Outs — 8). For example,
calculating your equity with 15 outs (an open-ended straight flush draw)
would be as follows: Equity = (15 x 4) — (15 — 8) = 53%. If you used the
four-two rule instead, your equity would be 15 x 4 = 60%, a difference of
7 percent.

Don’t worry if the latter formula is slightly confusing. If you simply

memorize the four-two rule, you will almost always be within 5 percent
of your actual equity, which is close enough to help you make the right
decision. The following pages include a chart to help you remember
your pot odds as well as equity based on your outs.

>>

Step 2: Building Your Strategy 55

 ‘umeer| MAKE ON TUR Nn |.
thy
MAKEONRIVER
hme oe
|
NUMBER pcan
||OF OUTS| Probability Odds (X:1) | Probability. Odds (X:1)
rr eae Se Re
1 2.1% 46,00 2.2% 45.00
| rity 4.3% faker Oey 43% | 22.00
| aoa 6.4% Los za 14.33
| Sa 8.5% | 1075 ese 10.50
i| te :
| go Tg 10.6% 8.40 10.9% 8.20
|5 E ee atau 13.0% 6.67

7 14.9% 571 15.2% 5.57

| 8 | 17.0% 4.88 17.4% 4.75

| 9 19.1% 4.22 19.6% an

| 10 21.3% 3.70 21.7% 3.60
| 1. | 23.4% eg oye 23.9% 3.18

ey 25.5% 2.92 26.1% 2.83

| ig° A 277% 2.62 28.3% ar

| 14 29.8% 2.36 30.4% 2.29

| 1B 31.9% 2.13 32.6% 2.07

| 16 34% 1.94 34.8% 1.88

ee 36.2% 1.76 37.0% 1.71

18 38.3% 1.61 39.1% 1.56

19 40.4% 1.47 41.3% 1.42

Bonet 42.6% 1.35 43.5% 1.30
21 44.7% 1.24 45.7% 119

56 The Poker Coach

 EXAMPLE OF DRAWING TO

Inside Straight Flush

Inside Straight Flush; Set (from Pocket Pair)

Inside Straight; Full House (from Two Pair) :

Three of a Kind and/or Two Pair

Either Pair

Full House and/or Quads; Inside Straight

and/or Top Pair

Open-Ended Straight

Inside Straight and/or Pair

Open-Ended Straight and/or Top Pair

Inside Straight and/or Flush; Flush

and/or Top Pair

Open-Ended Straight and/or Flush; Flush

and/or Pair; Inside Straight and/or Flush
and/or Top Pair

Inside Straight and/or Flush and/or Pair;

OESD and/or Flush and/or High Pair

Open-Ended Straight and/or Flush

and/or Pair

Step 2: Building Your Strategy 57

Using Pot Odds and Equity to Make Decisions
Now that you’re proficient in calculating your pot odds and convert-
ing them to percentages, it’s time you better understand how you're
practically going to use that information to make decisions on the felt.
Remember, the percentage represents your break-even point, which
is simply how often you need to win the pot to justify calling. Getting
2:1 pot odds, your break-even point is 33 percent. In practice, this
means that if your chance of winning is higher than 33 percent, you
should call. If not, you should fold.
Let’s look at a very simple preflop example to illustrate this con-
cept. In a tournament, the blinds are $500/$1,000 and you are dealt
9sQc in the big blind. Your opponent goes all in from early position
with a $10,000 stack. Here, you’re calling a bet of $9,000 to win a
pot of $11,150 (assuming there are no antes), so your pot odds are
$11,500/$9,000, which is about 1.3 to 1. (If |was doing this in real time,
I’d round 11,500 to 12,000 to get 1.33:1.)
To convert this to a percentage, simply divide 1 by 2.3 to get 44.
If you are unsure how to convert an obscure fraction to a percent-
age, simply memorize the most common nearby percentages and
take the average. For example, 1.3:1 is roughly halfway between 1.5:1
(40 percent) and 1:1 (50 percent); therefore, you can approximate
1.3:1 at 45 percent, getting extremely close to the actual answer.
This 45 percent represents your break-even point. To determine
whether or not you should call, you simply need to determine if
you have a 45 percent chance of winning (otherwise referred to as
“equity”) against the range of hands your opponent has. Don’t worry
if you don’t know how to calculate your equity in real time just yet;
we'll discuss that in the next sidebar, along with the Counting Combos
section on page 102, but for now, just focus on the process of solving
these situations. In short, anytime your equity is greater than your pot
odds, you should call.
In the example above, let’s say we determined the Villain was
shoving (or moving all in) with a narrow range preflop, 10 percent of
hands. Our pocket nines would have 48 percent equity, making this
a slightly profitable call. In a cash game, you could call and realize
your edge, but in a tournament, this would almost definitely be a fold,

58 The Poker Coach

as each chip gained isn’t as valuable as the previous chip, thereby
incentivizing you to play more conservatively.
Many times, you will make a profitable call yet still be a favorite
to lose the hand. This is the nature of making profitable decisions.
Remember, you aren’t calling when your equity is greater than
50 percent but rather whenever your equity is merely greater than
your pot odds. It’s imperative to understand and internalize this
seemingly radical concept of making a profitable call, as you will face
this situation much of the time. You can use this concept of pot odds
in any situation, whether it’s preflop, facing a flop bet, or facing a
river shove.
Let’s take a look at a common example: The Hero raises preflop
in a $2/$5 NL cash game on the cutoff to $15 with JsTs, the Villain
makes it $50 from the small blind, and the Hero calls. The flop comes
down 9s, 8c, and 4d, and both players check. The turn brings a 3h.
The Villain now bets out $50. You immediately know that facing a
half pot bet, your pot odds are 3:1, so you need 25 percent equity to
justify calling.
Let’s also imagine that somehow you knew the Villain had Ad9d.
Many players would fold here, reciting some aphorism like “You
shouldn’t draw with one card to come.” While that is an extremely
general rule, it is often inapplicable. In this case, you’d be incorrect to
fold. It’s not that you’re losing money by folding (as the expectation
of folding is always zero), but calling will yield a positive expectation,
making this the optimal line. In other words, folding is always a neutral
play, since you neither gain nor lose money by doing it. Your expec-
tation is zero. But your goal in poker isn’t to find a neutral play, it’s to
find the best play, and anytime calling or raising is better (meaning
it will yield a higher long-term profit than folding), you should opt for
that line instead.
A quick equity calculation will tell you that JsTs has 32 percent
equity, versus Ad9Qd in this situation. Given that you need only
25 percent equity to continue, calling will show a profit. Again, any-
time your equity is higher than your pot odds, you should continue
to play the hand. This call would show a 7 percent profit (32 percent
minus 25 percent), meaning your $50 wager would expect to show a
return of $3.50. Since folding is neutral, calling is a superior option.

Step 2: Building Your Strategy 59

 But what if you don’t know the Villain has precisely A9s? How do
you determine the correct play when you can’t see your opponent's
cards? And what about implied odds and reverse implied odds—how
do we take those into account? In the next section, I'll show you how
to work with these important factors to make winning decisions.

60 The Poker Coach

 >> YOU’LL WANT TO REMEMBER THIS! <<

Having “Equity” in Poker

Equity in poker can be defined as the amount of the pot that is

technically yours based on your odds of winning the hand at that
point in time. This can confuse some players, because in practice,
you either win 100 percent of the pot or zero (with the exception of
chopped pots, where two or more players with winning hands split
the pot). Yet poker pros make decisions based on equity, or their
probability of winning at any given time. Since you cannot know
for certain what your opponent is holding, you must calculate your
equity against the range of possible hands the Villain could have at
any given point.

Let’s take a look at a common example: You are holding QQ and

facing an all-in preflop. You put your opponent on a narrow range
of QQ+ and AK. You can determine your equity by calculating your
odds of winning against this range of hands with help from a poker
calculator, like PokerCruncher. Just like memorizing your multipli-
cation charts for common equations, professionals memorize their
equity in repeatedly seen situations, such as this one. This is espe-
cially prudent if playing tournament poker, as you will face many
preflop all-in scenarios.

The Hero’s equity against the Villain’s range of holdings is

40 percent. Once you have your equity, you simply weigh it against
your pot odds and determine if you are getting the right price to call,
calling whenever your equity is greater.

For a complete course on how to master pot odds, poker math, and
equity, visit ConsciousPoker.com.

Step 2: Building Your Strategy 61

Implied Odds

Calculating your pot odds alone will only get you so far. What if you
stand to win more money if you make your hand? You can compen-
sate for a lack of pot odds by having “implied odds,” or an estimation
of the amount of money you can win from your opponent if you hit
one of your outs. Knowing how to calculate your implied odds is an
important next step in your poker math journey, as you can often win
future bets when completing your draw. Let’s take a look at a few
examples and then discuss how to use these to your advantage.
Perhaps the most common situation in which you'll need to con-
sider your implied odds is the preflop. Let’s imagine you’re playing
$2/$5 NL and mid position opens to $15. You look down at 6s6c
on the button and are debating whether or not to call. The current
pot size, including the blinds, is $22, and you’re facing a bet of $15.
Therefore, your pot odds are $22:$15 or roughly 1.5:1.
Since the odds of improving to three of a kind (also called “flopping
a set”) on any given flop is roughly 7:1, and your pot odds are 1.5:1,
you should fold, right? Not so fast. If you evaluate this situation based
strictly on your direct odds, you’d be correct to fold. Factoring in your
implied odds, however, paints the picture that you’re extremely likely
to win more money postflop if you flop a set (at least the “continua-
tion bet” from your opponent), thereby turning this seemingly losing
call into a profitable one. Naturally, the greater your implied odds, the
more you can afford to call bets where you aren’t getting the right
price, with the hope of winning more money later on.
Let’s take a look at another, slightly more intricate example you’re
almost certain to face in the future: In a $2/$5 NL cash game, you
defend in the big blind with 8s7s from a tight, straightforward, early
position opener who made it $15. The flop comes down Th, 7d, and
3s. You check, he makes a continuation bet of $20, and you call. The
turn reveals a 6s. Once again, you check, and now the Villain bets the
full pot of $80.
Hypothetically, let’s say you’re sure your opponent has an over
pair, (JJ-AA). You also know that he’s stubborn, not great at hand
reading, and certainly not the type to fold on the river if you improve
to a flush, trips, or two pair. How should you proceed?

62 The Poker Coach

 You know from memorizing the cheat sheet that anytime your
opponent bets full pot, your pot odds are 2:1; therefore, you need
33 percent equity to justify calling. Aware that you can almost cer-
tainly improve to the best hand on any nine, eight, seven, or spade,
you determine you have 17 outs (4 nines, 3 eights, 2 sevens, and
8 spades; we already counted the 9 of spades). Using the Rule of
Four and Two to get a rough estimate of your equity, you multiply
your outs by two, since there is one card left to come, and determine
that you have roughly 34% equity.
Since your equity—34 percent—is roughly equal to your pot
odds—33 percent—this is a marginal call, right? Wrong. Here’s where
implied odds come in. The fact that we can likely win a large bet from
our opponent if we improve to the best hand turns this seemingly
marginal call into a slam-dunk profitable one, because we can easily
justify this break-even call by winning one or two bets on the river
whenever we improve to the best hand. Situations like these come
up all the time in poker, and it’s imperative to consider what’s likely to
happen if the cards fall your way before taking action.
Implied odds explain why you may observe players calling flop bets
with any pair. When you combine the possibility of having the best
hand with the probability of winning more money upon improvement,
it makes sense to hang on whenever you flop a decent amount of
equity. Your implied odds will be dramatically improved when you are
in position, as you control the tempo of the hand, your opponent has
less information about your holding, and it’s easier to get paid off, as
you can guarantee a bet will be made on the river.

Reverse Implied Odds

You won’t always be able to win more money when you make your
hand. In fact, the opposite is sometimes the case. What happens if
you complete your draw and it ends up costing you money? Situa-
tions in which you lose more money if you make your hand are called
“reverse implied odds.”
While there are circumstances in which reverse implied odds are
a concern, they are far more infrequent than the situations in which
you have implied odds. The reason is simple: It’s difficult to make a
strong hand in poker and even more difficult for two people to do

Step 2: Building Your Strategy 63

it simultaneously. Therefore, when you do improve your one pair to
two pair or trips, for example, it’s mathematically likely that you will
have the best hand, giving you implied odds more often than reverse
implied odds. In this situation, holding 8s7s on a Th, 7d, 3s, and 6s
board, you would only have reverse implied odds if your opponent
had a set and the river was an eight, seven, or three of spades (giving
you a flush and your opponent a full house).
To evaluate the best course of action in these situations, weigh
both the possibility of improving to the best and worst hand, then
determine which is more likely. To do so, you must count combos,
something we will discuss at length in step 5. One of the basic
combos you must commit to memory is the possibility of your oppo-
nent having a set, or three of a kind. For example, your opponent can
only have TT one of three ways: TcTs, TcTd, and TsTd. For any given
set, there are always three combinations.
But what about pocket sevens? Since you hold a seven in your
hand, there’s only one remaining possibility of pocket sevens (7h7c).
And, since you can rule out 33 from your opponents’ range preflop
because the Villain raised under the gun (and we established that
a tight, solid player wouldn’t do so), there are a total of four sets of
combos that your opponent can have.
Since there are six ways someone can be dealt a pair (e.g., AcAs,
AcAh, AcAd, AsAd, AsAh, and AhAd) and our opponent can have —
JJ, QQ, KK, and AA, there are 24 possibilities of over pairs compared
to four possibilities of sets. Assuming these are the only hands in
his range, you'll have reverse implied odds against four combos
and implied odds against 24 combos. To put it another way, you'll
have implied odds 24/28 or 85 percent of the time. Cater your bets
toward the most likely scenario. While every situation is unique, the
value of implied odds in most circumstances outweighs the risk of
reverse implied odds.
This should lead you to call more liberally, worry less about what
happens when you’re beat, and focus more on how to extract value
from your opponents when you make the best hand. That said, there

64 The Poker Coach

are situations in which reverse implied odds may be a legitimate
concern. Let’s take a look at a common example: In a $2/$5 NL cash
game, there’s a raise from early position to $15 and a call from middle
position, and you come along with 7s6s in the big blind. The flop
comes down Td, 8c, and 3c. You check, the original raiser bets $40,
and middle position calls. You could peel (call a bet to see what
develops) here and hope for a nine, but not only does that potentially
make someone a higher straight (if someone is holding QJ), but all
of your outs aren’t necessarily live because the nine of clubs could
make someone a flush as well. This is a classic example of where you
may have reverse implied odds rather than implied odds.
Another example is when holding JT on a KJ7 board. Not only
could your two pair make someone a straight, but even if you do hit
two pair or trips, your opponent isn’t likely to lose a lot of money with
just one pair due to the dangerous board texture and potential some-
one has a better hand.
In short, you have implied odds in situations where your hand is
deceptive if you make it, and you have reverse implied odds in situ-
ations where your opponents aren’t likely to give you further action
unless they have a better hand than the one you’re drawing to.

>> PRACTICE POINT: POT ODDS Quiz <<

To help you implement what you’ve learned and ensure you’ve

properly digested the information above, I’ve created a fun poker
pot odds quiz for you to take. It’s available at ConsciousPoker.com.

Step 2: Building Your Strategy 65

Poker: A Game of Patience
Playing poker correctly requires immense patience. The misconcep-
tion that poker is a consistently exciting game, filled with epic bluffs,
fancy moves, and incredible Hero calls, is largely due to the way it’s
portrayed on television. What you see on TV, however, is not repre-
sentative of how the game is actually played.
In a televised cash game like Poker Night in America, we'll film
for 16 hours across two days, but that entire segment is cut down to
one or two 30-minute episodes, and only about 10 of the most excit-
ing hands are portrayed. The viewer then believes this is how poker
is played, but nothing could be further from the truth. Professionals
don’t win because they outmaneuver their opponents on every hand
but rather because they exercise more patience in folding mediocre
cards. It’s the hands they don’t play that separates pros from amateurs.
If you sit down with the expectation that you need to outplay every-
one, you'll end up forcing the action. That’s when bad things happen
and mistakes are made. The best way to combat this is to be men-
tally prepared to fold for hours. | use the slow pace as a challenge to
improve an aspect of my character. Why not turn your poker playing
into an exercise on restraint? This will help you stay focused and dis-
ciplined through the inevitable dry spells.

66 The Poker Coach

 Step 2: Building Your Strategy 67
ee
~~
05
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PN
ORG
weeR
Le
She
ee
TT
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STEP 3: VISUALIZE THE PROCESS
AND FLOW OF THE GAME

In this chapter, we’re going to get you ready for the game.
This will involve being aware of your image as well as
your opponents and how to use that information to your
advantage. We’ll also discuss some of the adjustments
you'll need to make in real time, the most common poker
tells and what they mean, and practical strategies for
when to play your cards or play the player.
 >> HERE’S WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW: <<
STEREOTYPES IN POKER

One of the first questions I’m asked when people discover | play
poker is “Do you wear those sunglasses at the table?” Almost never,
and almost no professionals do, either.

Most stereotypes in poker don’t hold true. In fact, the reason these
stereotypes exist in the first place is that amateurs believe they’re
acting like the professionals. Again, television is largely to blame
for this. Those who are eccentric, staring their opponents down in
an attempt to read their soul, for example, get a disproportionate
amount of television time, reinforcing stereotypes like this one.

Other stereotypes that don’t hold true? Experienced players typi-

cally act extremely fast. As we saw in step 1, you can expect to play
25 hands per hour in a typical poker game, but if people act quickly,
it can be as many as 40 hands. More hands per hour means a higher
hourly rate and reaching the long run sooner, both crucial to a
professional’s success. Also, professionals rarely talk during hands.
For the most part, professionals aim to be stoic, move as little as
possible, and remain quiet while a hand is in play to avoid giving
away information.

The 5 Most Common Tells of Your Opponent

Physical tells are behaviors that point to the strength or weakness
of your holding. While professionals are habitually stoic, inexperi-
enced players are often less capable of concealing their emotions
(especially in big pots and under pressure) and may have visible tells.
Keep in mind that reading tells is not a foolproof system for deter-
ee
aera
TR
a
Re
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OO
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aeee
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TNeEee mining hand strength. Proceed with caution when playing against
experienced players, as they may give off reverse tells, meaning
they'll intentionally act in the opposite way of what a tell typically
represents. Following is a list of the five most common tells.

70 The Poker Coach

eee
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Acting rapidly = Weakness. Betting, or calling a bet very
quickly, is most often a sign of weakness. You may encounter
this with recreational players who instantly call a postflop bet
when a draw is present. They almost never have a strong hand
and are often drawing. The second scenario in which this tell
applies is when your opponent immediately bets the river. This
signifies weakness, as when players have a strong hand, they’ll
typically deliberate about the best course of action to take.

Talking during a hand = Weakness. In a famous hand between

Daniel Negreanu and me, | was on the river with a set of fives.
Negreanu had moved all in and was representing a flush. As
| was debating what to do, he began talking to me. | should
have known he was weak; why else would he chat me up? But
instead, | conversed back, and he talked me into a fold. Not
every situation in which your opponent talks will indicate they
are bluffing (especially against a top-level pro like Negreanu,
who is capable of “leveling” me into thinking he’s weak when
he’s strong). But most of the time, if your opponent tries to ini-
tiate a conversation, it’s because they have a weak hand. You
will most commonly experience this situation when facing an
all-in or after your opponent has made a bet on the river.

Being completely motionless = Weakness. This is a more diffi-

cult tell to interpret among better players, as they will aim to be
still in all situations. However, against amateurs or very lively
players, this is usually a reliable tell. When players are bluffing,
they frequently go completely silent and don’t move a muscle
so as not to give anything away. Ironically, many inexperienced
players become motionless only when they have a weak hand.
Players may put their elbows on the table and fists on their
cheeks to solidify this posture.

Shaking hands = Strength. Shaky hands while betting is a

sign that the body is trying to release tension. More often than
not, it points to a monster. | find this to be the most reliable
tell—even among good players—as shaking hands are an invol-
untary movement and difficult to control.

Step 3: Visualize the Process and Flow of the Game 71

 5. Looking down at stack or away from chips = Strength. Once, |
had flopped a set of nines in a three-bet pot and bet out $1,100,
praying for action. This is the most famous hand of poker I’ve
played, and it was televised on Poker Night in America. My
hand was so strong, the book Says to go all in no matter what.
However, my opponent glanced briefly down at his chips
before raising me to $3,500. When the action got back around
to me, | folded my cards faceup in less than two seconds. As it
turns out, my opponent flopped a straight. It’s a play | wouldn't
have been able to make had it not been for this simple tell.
Be careful, however: Spotting players looking down at their
chips can be tough, as this quick movement takes less than
a second. The other, less frequently seen tell is looking away
from the table after making a bet. This innocent attempt to
feign disinterest is typically a sign of strength.

Using Your Image at the Poker Table

In the previous section, we talked about positional awareness and the
fact that in most circumstances the strength of your hand doesn’t dic-
tate the correct play, but your position does. A similar theory applies
to table image. The type of player you are facing largely determines
what hands you should play and how you should play them.
The same is true for how observant players will make decisions
against you. Know that immediately when you arrive at a poker game,
your opponents are sizing you up based on your physical appearance
and mannerisms to understand your playing style. Since first impres-
sions are made quickly and are difficult to reconsider, the first half
hour at the table sets the tone for how you are perceived.

72 The Poker Coach

The 5 Ways Your Opponents Will Profile You

First impressions are hard to quantify. You don’t decide whether or

not you’re fond of someone because of the color of their shirt but
rather based on an instinctual feeling you get upon meeting them.
The same theory applies when it comes to profiling someone at the
poker table. While | will try my best to quantify the factors that
comprise image, there are many intangibles, and you will need to
deploy self-awareness to determine how you come across. That said,
the following are the five most common ways your opponents will
profile you.

1. Your outward appearance: Business professionals and older

players typically have a more conservative image and are
seen as having a conservative playing style, whereas a young,
unshaven kid in sweatpants will likely be seen as more aggres-
sive. Women and seniors are also stereotyped as being tighter
in their play.

Your stack size: If you buy in the maximum or extremely

deep, players will assume you’re there to gamble. If you buy
in short, they'll likely think you’re inexperienced and will play
fewer hands.

How you act: Did you nonchalantly pull out a bunch of large
denomination chips or $100 bills from your pocket? You may
be perceived as a fast-action player. Are you asking for a
color change from a smaller game? You may come across
as scared money. Also, be aware of your demeanor when
sitting down. Boisterous players will be seen as bullies who
won’t back down when facing bets and will bluff more liber-
ally, whereas soft-spoken or timid people will be profiled as
being tight or passive players.

What you say: Do you talk about your spouse and kids,
or fast cars and booze? People will correlate your playing
style with the types of people and situations with which
you associate.

Step 3: Visualize the Process and Flow of the Game 73

 5. Your table history: Have you played with these players
before? Did you get caught bluffing, or did you show down
the nuts?

Be aware of how you come across to others, since it will likely affect
how they make decisions against you during a hand of poker. In
short, the way people act and behave often reflects their playing
style. Imagine you are another player at the table. Ask yourself, “What
would you think of someone who looks, dresses, and acts like you?”

Write the answer down here:

Noticing how you profile someone with your image will help you
understand how your competition may think of you. Next, determine
your game plan against someone with your image, as your opponents
will use this same strategy against you. Do this exercise mentally
every time you sit down at the poker table.

How would you play against someone with your image?

*PRO TIP: One ofthe biggest mistakes | see working professionals make
is calling down too much on the river, particularly against professionals who
they label as “aggressive.” Businessmen often report that most thinking
players will under-bluff against them for fear that they will simply not fold.
Therefore, the simple adjustment you can make would be to fold more often
on the river against solid players, unless you have a very strong holding.

74 The Poker Coach

Making Adjustments in Real Time

After you sit down at the table, how you play will influence your table
image and how observant players will adjust to you. While there are
many factors to consider, the following are the big three.

Fe Exposing Cards
You should almost never show your hole cards (the cards dealt
to you facedown) except to maintain an image of which you aim
to take advantage at a later time. Doing this correctly is an art,
and most people give away more information than they intend
to, so | recommend never showing your hand.
Inevitably, there are situations when you may be forced to
show your hand. Being aware of the types of hands you expose
is important in understanding how your competition will adjust
to you. If you got caught bluffing, for example, you will get
less credit in the future, as someone may assume you’re “on
tilt,” or acting less than optimally due to emotion or confusion.
Meanwhile, showing down a series of monsters (seemingly
unbeatable or nearly unbeatable hands) over the course of the
night may allow you to take advantage of a well-timed bluff.

Playing Style

Your playing style will dramatically influence how you are

perceived at the table. For example, perhaps you just sat
down and three-bet twice during the first round. Even if you
had pocket aces both times, what your opponents think is the
only thing that matters. And since the odds are you won't get
dealt two monsters in a single orbit (rotation of the button in
which the number of hands equals the number of players), your
opponents may believe you are up to something. Therefore,
| wouldn’t advise three-betting again unless you have a pre-
mium hand.
Alternatively, you may have been completely card dead
for the first three hours of play, folded nearly every hand, and
rarely even defended your big blind. Perhaps a situation arises
where there’s a raise and two calls in front of you, and a very

Step 3: Visualize the Process and Flow of the Game 75

 loose player three-bets from the button. Here, you may opt to
make a cold four-bet bluff from the blinds (especially with an
ace in your hand, making it less likely that your opponent has
a premium holding like AA or AK). Of course, if they fold, you'll
muck your cards, letting them think you had it all along.

3. Mannerisms and Behavior

Given that how you behave will influence how you’re perceived
by others, the following are some things to think about while
you're at the table.

HOW YOU ACT: Are you confident and casual, or rigid

and deliberate?

HOW DO YOU STACK YOUR CHIPS: Are they neatly stacked

in rows of 20, or messy and scattered?

WHAT YOU’RE DRINKING: Is it a green tea with lemon,

or a whiskey on the rocks?

Reflect on your typical behavior and playing style at the table and
how your opponents may perceive you as a result. Write it down here:

Next, jot down how your opponents may adjust against a player with
your image.

Finally, write out what adjustments you will make based on how your
opponents are likely to play against you.

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76 The Poker Coach

For example, if you come in with a messy stack, have three-bet twice
in the first orbit, and are drinking an alcoholic beverage (something
| never recommend at the table), you may have written down that
your image is loose and reckless, and your opponents will value bet
heavily and rarely bluff you. Your counteradjustment would be to play
tight; never three-bet unless you have it, bluff rarely, and fold to big
river bets.
Keep in mind that making decisions based on your table image
is player dependent. Be aware of who is paying attention to the
in-game play and devising new strategies as the game progresses
versus who is merely playing their own two cards. More observant
players use every new piece of information to update their real-time
decision-making process. Have a well-thought-out plan and counter-
adjustment strategy in place against these opponents.
Against a complete novice, the strategy is simple: Play stronger
hands than them and don’t outthink yourself. Remember, the goal
is not to play on the highest level but to be one level higher than
your opponents.
My guess for most people reading this book is they will have a
looser-than-normal image because their default is to play too many
hands. The simple adjustment is tightening up by playing fewer hands
preflop, especially while out of position. Second, bluff less and fold
more, especially against better players.

Step 3; Visualize the Process and Flow of the Game 77

[@) of of ofe ofe oFo oFe oF oF $F SF% SEP SEP SEP SEP SE OTe ST? ST"

BXRIRCISES
Write down the stereotypical style for the most common types of
poker players against whom you will play. Of course, generalizations
aren’t perfect, and you will need to seek out the nuances of each
individual with whom you play in real time. That said, the process
of crafting strategies against these archetypes will help you learn
the subtleties of various players and get familiar with the practice of
developing a counterstrategy.

*PRO TIP: When doing this exercise, identify specific players in your game
who fit the following profiles.

1. Competitive businessperson (e.g., investor, stock trader, venture

capitalist, entrepreneur, etc.):

2. Young pro:

3. Retired casual player:

4. Egocentric individual with something to prove:

5. Table game gambler: are creer a IEE IRS CL Sap RU DSTORE eePSE ENE

6. Casual weekend player who is married with two kids:

eo)she Feof sh abeoe ahs heoe ahsahsaf fe of ahs oe obsof

Second, jot down the best adjustments against each of the oppo-
nent types.

1. Strategy against the competitive businessperson:

2. Strategy against the young pro:

3. Strategy against the retired casual player:

4. Strategy against the egocentric man with something

to prove:

5. Strategy against the table game gambler:

6. Strategy against the casual weekend player who is married with

two kids:

Hoofe ofeofeof ofe ofeofe fe ofeof ofe ofeofe f+ of of of (6)

 >> USING GAME THEORY VS. EXPLOITATIVE PLAY <<

There are two schools of thought when it comes to poker strategy: using
a game theory approach versus an exploitative one. The former aims to
play like a computer, using perfect fundamentals and never adjusting
strategy based on the opponent. Exploitative play is just the opposite; you
take the opponent’s tendencies into account and aim to take advantage of
imbalances and weaknesses in their game. Both approaches have merit,
and like so many aspects of poker, the one to choose will depend on
circumstance.

Personally, | aim to take an exploitative approach whenever possible and

use game theory as a fallback. The reason for that is that in almost all
circumstances, the range your opponent can have at any given time will
depend on a variety of factors, such as their mood, tendencies, if they’re
winning or losing, and your history with them. Very few players always
adhere to game theory and strictly make decisions based on what the
book says. That’s why | recommend using the information you have about
your opponents to better identify their most likely holdings. Particularly
while playing at the lower limits, and in live poker, aiming to exploit your
opponents’ tendencies will yield the highest profit, as inferior players will
have too many easily exposed betting patterns. For example, it’s common
for players to bluff too often or not enough, and therefore the appropriate
counteradjustment is simply to call more or less liberally.

Exploitative play is best used when playing against inexperienced players

or against those whose betting patterns you can identify. In adopting this
approach, you may find yourself in situations where your play is unbal-
anced, for example, by never bluffing against someone you are certain
won't fold to a bet. Aim to play each hand the best way possible and

80 The Poker Coach

worry less about making long-term plays merely because they are
theoretically correct (like bluffing in the scenario above in the name of
“balance”).

There are situations, however, when you may have little information
about your opponent and you must adopt a balanced approach, for
example, by bluffing and value betting with an appropriate frequency to
remain unpredictable. Playing this way, or “by the book,” is what’s called
“game-theory optimal” (GTO). This is how the computer would play the
hand. This strategy is best used when you are new to a table, have no
reads, or are playing against a solid, balanced professional. It’s also
almost always correct to use GTO opening ranges preflop, since you
have no reads or tendencies to exploit at this point in the hand (similar
to how crafting a fundamental chess opening is always correct). The
most common situation to use a GTO style is when playing online poker,
as you have much less information about your opponents and therefore
must assume that they are balanced in all situations.

Step 3: Visualize the Process and Flow of the Game 81

SASL
ITT
PHASE 2

SARTRE
STEP 4: START YOUR ENGINES

Now that you're seated at the table, ready to out-level

your opponents, and have a proficient understanding
of the core concepts, it’s time to empower you with the
in-game strategy you need to crush in today’s poker
landscape. In this chapter, we'll cover how to navigate
your way through a poker hand. We'll start with mastering
the fundamentals of preflop poker before continuing our
way to postflop play, where you'll learn to hand read like
a professional. Equipped with these fundamentals, you'll
better understand what your opponents are likely hold-
ing and be able to use that information to outplay them.
Preflop Play
You’ve already learned about preflop play with respect to positions
on page 37 and how you can more profitably play hands when you’re
last to act. Now we’ll dive deeper and get into the specifics of which
hands you can play from which positions.
Preflop is arguably the most important decision you'll make at the
poker table, since every subsequent decision builds upon it. By far,
the single most common mistake | see players make is playing too
many hands. Almost without exception, | recommend being more
selective with your starting holdings, as it’s the quickest way to see
results. This adjustment is simple yet difficult to implement, as it
requires patience to wait for profitable situations. Profitable and even
perfect preflop play needn’t be a mystery. Poker and technology have
evolved to the point where Al can tell us which hands are viable to
play from which positions preflop, much like a computer can tell us
which moves are best to open with in chess.
In this section, I’ve included charts of which hands to play in which
positions when you are the first to enter the pot. Players should
always choose between raising and folding, as raising gives you
two chances to win the pot: Either everyone folds immediately, or
you get to represent more hands postflop with a continuation bet.
(We'll discuss this more in Range Leverage on page 123.) Calling
preflop, otherwise referred to as “limping,” is ill-advised, except when
someone has already limped ahead of you, which we will discuss on
page 87.
The purpose of these charts is to give you a solid game-theory-
optimal preflop strategy. In other words, if a computer were playing
the game, without any emotion, history, or knowing any information
about the opponents, it would play these hands. Much like you did
your multiplication tables in grade school, commit your starting hands
to memory to automate your decision-making process and avoid
making mistakes.

84 The Poker Coach

AVie

A30 K30 Q3o0

A20 K2o0 Q2o

Making the Most of the Preflop Charts

While it’s true that game theory is important in helping you build a
solid foundation, the reality is you’re not playing against a computer
but other humans, whose emotions and decisions change from one
moment to the next. Therefore, the best strategy is one that uses
situational awareness to determine whether to play a borderline
hand. This means taking into account opponents’ tendencies, their
own image, and the flow of the game to determine the best course
of action.

Step 4: Start Your Engines 85

Exceptions to the Rule: Big Blind Play

Almost without exception, you can play more hands preflop when
you are in position than when out of position. The caveat to the rule
is when you are in the big blind, where you are heavily incentivized
to call a raise because of great pot odds. For example, when playing
$2/$5 NL and facing a $15 raise, you only have to call $10 in the big
blind (BB) into an existing pot of $22, giving you greater than 2:1 pot
odds. Second, the big blind is often closing the action, which guaran-
tees you will see the flop.
With that in mind, you should call raises (otherwise referred to as
“defending”) with a wider range of hands from the big blind than any
other position. Determining exactly which hands you should defend
depends on a variety of factors, which is why | like to use a sliding
scale based on the following variables: where my opponent raised
from, the opponent’s skill level, their stack size, my implied odds, the
number of players in the pot, and whether there are antes. (Specif-
ically, with antes, you will be getting far greater pot odds, thereby
allowing you to defend much more widely.)
The worse my opponent plays postflop and the later position from
which he opened (meaning he has a wider range of hands), the looser
ll defend from the big blind. To be specific, if a poor player opens
on the button and we’re deep stacked, I’m defending any two suited
cards and offsuit hands as wide as 65. Inversely, the better he plays
and earlier he opened, the tighter I'll be. If a solid pro opens from
under the gun, I'll need a relatively playable hand to defend in the big
blind, such as a suited connector or pair.

86 The Poker Coach

Limping Preflop

When first to enter a pot, you should theoretically never limp (betting
the least amount needed) preflop. It’s best to simply raise or fold with
all your starting hands. But what if another player has already limped
in front of you? In rare circumstances, I’m okay with limping in behind,
as long as your hand meets the following criteria:

% It’s not strong enough to raise.

% It’s too strong to fold.

% It plays well in a multi-way pot.

Ideal candidates for limping are those that are not ahead of your
opponent’s range or cannot be played for value but still have great
playability. These are typically mid-suited connectors (like 87s) and
smaller pairs (22-77), or some lower suited aces (A5s-A2s). Limping is
much more profitable in the cutoff, button, or when completing from
the small blind, as you are more likely to realize your equity by seeing
the flop. In short, limping behind should be done on rare occasions,
perhaps 5 percent of the time. When in doubt, fold.

Preflop Raise Sizing

Now that you’re aware raising preflop is almost always the optimal
strategy, you may be wondering, “How much?” Every hand is situ-
ational, and there are no hard-and-fast rules. That being said, the
following are some general guidelines you can use when playing both
cash games and tournaments.

Step 4: Start Your Engines 87

 CASH GAMES

I’m assuming the average stack is at least 100 big blinds. In short
stack games, the tournament raise sizes may be more appropriate.
All raise sizes are multiples of the big blind.

% Early Position: 4 to 5x

> Mid Position: 3 to 4x

% Late Position: 3x

> SB: 4 to 5x

> BB: 5 to 6x

88 The Poker Coach

TOURNAMENTS

In tournaments, raise sizes vary much more based on stack sizes.

The deeper you are, the more it will play like a cash game. Person-
ally, I’m a fan of the “small ball” approach, meaning to keep the pot
size smaller in all situations to reduce variance and better manage
your stack.

EARLY STAGES (AVERAGE STACK 100 BBS)

ALL POSITIONS: 3x

SB/BB: 4 to 5x

MID STAGES (AVERAGE STACK 50 BBS)

ALL POSITIONS: 2.5x the big blind

SB/BB: 3 to 4x

LATE STAGES (AVERAGE STACK 30 BBS)

ALL POSITIONS: 2.25x the big blind

SB: 2.5 to 3x

SHORT STACK (15 BBS OR LESS)

ALL POSITIONS: All in or fold. (You can download exact GTO ranges
to push and fold from every position by searching for
“Push Fold Charts” on the Conscious Poker Blog.

Note: All the above recommendations for SB and BB are assuming

there are limpers in front of you. When the action folds to you in
the SB, raise 4 to 5x. If shorter stacked (30 BB), raise 3x. If you are
heads-up against the SB who limps, raise 3x.
In both cash games and tournaments, add one big blind to the
above raise sizing suggestions for every player who limped in
front of you.

Step 4: Start Your Engines 89

Preflop Play: Re-Raising or Three-Betting

While it makes sense to commit your starting hands to memory, when

it comes to re-raising preflop (three-betting), it’s much harder to do
so because the game tree, or number of possible permutations,
expands significantly. For example, from the small blind alone, you’d
need to memorize seven unique charts (one for each different player
who opened) to come up with the correct GTO strategy. It’s just not
practical. What’s much more useful is to conceptually understand
three-betting strategy so you can be better equipped to handle every
situation you encounter.

POLARIZED VS. DEPOLARIZED

There are two general strategies when it comes to three-betting:

polarized and depolarized. Let’s take a look at both and when it’s best
to use them.

POLARIZED RANGES

A polarized range contains hands on each end of the spectrum: your

absolute best hands, and a few selective bluffs. Depending on posi-
tion, it will look something like this:

90 The Poker Coach

 Hand Range — 2 Players

PLAYER HAND RANGE EQUITY COMBINATIONS

ii wAISt ASS“
2S 857.507 6S) 7.09%
65s, AQot+ | (94/1326 combos)

95s 94s

| J7o
eee 13 i; se
A60 K60 Q60 J60 | T60 960
: 2s Seer copes eae Omen GRR?
| K50 | Q50 | J50 |
j {
See ss ——t-
|
/
| |

420 320,
{
ee | eee Sa

Step 4: Start Your Engines 91

 You can see the Hero is three-betting his premium hands (TT+,
AGo+, and AJs+), and some bluffs like AXs and small-suited connectors.
He does this because the latter hands are typically not strong enough
to call with and therefore must be played as either a three-bet or fold.
They also give the Hero “board coverage,” meaning he can potentially
make strong hands on all different runouts, keeping him balanced.
You'll notice, however, that the Hero’s three-betting range is still
extremely tight (a mere 7 percent frequency). This is an imperative
factor to the play’s overall profitability, as tight ranges are stronger,
which means they are more threatening postflop, giving the Hero a
better chance of winning the pot. The fact the Hero has so few bluffs
to choose from explains why he selects hands with the most potential.
Here, 87s is a far more playable hand than a completely trash hand,
like T40.
A polarized approach is best used against solid, thinking players
who are capable of putting you to the test postflop. For example, if
your opponent knows you are only three-betting with big cards, then
on low runouts, such as 8765 or 7659, they will know these cards
couldn’t have helped you and can push you off your hand. That said,
in live, small-stakes cash games and tournaments, | rarely recommend
using a polarized three-betting strategy. What’s far more effective
is simply three-betting all of your strong hands, as they have the
most equity.

DEPOLARIZED RANGES

A depolarized preflop strategy means to simply three-bet with all

of your strong hands in a linear order (also referred to as a “linear
range”). Unlike a polarized range, a depolarized range will not contain
bluffs but exclusively value hands.
The downside of this strategy is that it leaves you vulnerable
on low board runouts. That being said, against incompetent play-
ers who play too loose and won’t exploit this potential weakness,
three-betting a depolarized range is the most profitable strategy,
since your overall equity will be higher during each hand because
you are simply playing stronger cards. A depolarized range will also
vary by opponent and the position of all players involved but will look
something like this:

92 The Poker Coach

 Hand Range — 2 Players

PLAYER HAND RANGE EQUITY COMBINATIONS

7.39%
(98/1326 combos)

ee
OO
FES

be
mee
~ie

Step 4: Start Your Engines 93

 Notice how both the polarized and depolarized three-betting
ranges contain roughly 7 percent of hands. Three-betting with
the correct frequency is important and, regardless of which strat-
egy you adopt to ensure you, keeps your overall range strong and
threatening.
My general recommendation for three-betting is to re-raise with
hands that are stronger than your opponent’s opening range. Broad-
way and offsuit hands, like AJ and KQ, play worse as calls and better
in heads-up pots, which is why these hands are great candidates for
three-bets, again, assuming they are most likely to be the best hand
(e.g., when on the button versus a CO open). Otherwise, simply fold
them (e.g., when in MP against a tight player who opened UTG).
Hands that flop well in multi-way pots, like JTs and 77, play better
as calls. The rest of the hands—even marginal ones, like Q9s, J8s,
and 97s—should almost always be folded (with the exception of per-
haps limping behind on the button or defending from the BB).
As for three-bet sizing, the general rule is simple: Three-bet to
three times the original raise size when in position and four to five
times when out of position. If there are callers, add the amount of
their call to your three-bet. For example, if MP opens to $15 ina
$2/$5 NL cash game and the cutoff calls, you should three-bet to
$60 from the button ($15 x 3 + $15) and $90 from the small blind
($15 x 5 + $15).

>> PRACTICE POINT: PREFLOP Quiz <<

To help you practice your preflop strategy, visit ConsciousPoker.com

and search for “preflop” to download our free preflop guide. Study
up before moving onward.

94 The Poker Coach

Postflop Strategy
Now that you’ve become proficient in preflop play, it’s time to master
postflop play. Conventional wisdom says to tackle postflop play
by focusing on isolated individual concepts, such as “slow playing”
(a deceptive play in which you bet weakly even though you have a
strong hand) or “check-raising,” but actually implementing these as
part of an overall strategy can be confusing. That’s why my central
focus is going to be on the ultimate skill in poker: hand reading. Hand
reading lies at the core of poker strategy. What you are trying to do
in every hand of poker you play is figure out what your opponent is
holding. Equipped with that information, the rest of the decision-
making process becomes a lot easier (especially once you’re
competent in the poker math).
In this section I'll share my exact process to make decisions at
the poker table. Over the years, I’ve taught it to countless clients
and readers who have produced some incredible results using this
system. |’m confident if you take the time to get comfortable with it,
you will see results as well.

How to Hand Read Like a Professional

We’ve already established that professionals use hand ranges to

determine their opponents’ most likely holdings, and | introduced you
to my “Hand Range Funnel” methodology of narrowing this down.
Correctly putting your opponent on a hand is the single most import-
ant tactical skill in poker and is a classic example of something that
takes a minute to learn yet a lifetime to master.
To review, “hand range” refers to all the hands your opponent
could be holding at any given time. The reason hand ranges follow
the shape of a funnel is they start wide and progressively get nar-
rower throughout the hand. Each time your opponent takes an action,
their range changes in some way. This process starts with preflop.
While a player can theoretically be dealt 100 percent of holdings,
when they opt to raise from UTG, they will have a mere 10 percent of
hands. You’ll remember from Core Concept #3: Hand Ranges on page
46 that this range is 77+, ATst+, A5s-A4s, KQs, Qs, JTs, and AQot.
Right there, we’ve already eliminated 90 percent of their holdings
with a single action. This is the funnel at work.

Step 4: Start Your Engines 95

 Now we'll apply that same methodology to postflop play, giving
you a better understanding of how ranges change throughout a hand
with each action your opponent takes. Then we'll use the poker math
we learned to weigh the probability of having the best hand against
the pot odds we’re getting to determine the correct play. Before we
move on, here are the three principles of a hand range funnel:

1. Hands that are eliminated from a range are gone forever. This
simply means that if your opponent folds a hand on the flop, he
cannot have that hand on the river.

2. Hand ranges always shrink in size.

3. Funnels come in all shapes and can get narrower in a variety

of ways.

The chart on page 97 is an example of what the hand range funnel

looks like in practice.
While a hand range can only get narrower, it doesn’t mean it will
always get narrower. Certain circumstances may cause your oppo-
nent’s hand range to remain the same (e.g., if he continuation bets the
flop 100 percent of the time), while others will cause it to get dramati-
cally narrower (e.g., when check-raising all in on the river).

THINKING ANALYTICALLY THROUGH A HAND

To correctly put your opponent on a hand range, you’ll have to

logically deduce what their bets mean. This won’t always be easy,
in particular against maniac opponents who seem to play any two
cards. Remember, any educated guess is better than none. When in
doubt, think about how you would play the hand if you were in your
opponent’s shoes. Chances are, if you wouldn’t make a certain move
or bet, then neither would someone else. Over time, your ability to
cater this approach toward each individual player and understand the
subtle nuances of how ranges change based on board texture, oppo-
nents, and situations will improve and, as a result, so will your overall
decisions and profitability.

96 The Poker Coach

 69/65 NL. | Button

Villain
PREFLOP 77+, ATs+, opens
HAND A5s-A4s, UTG
RANGE KQs, QJs, JTs, to $15,
and AQo+ Hero calls
with AhJh.

TFLOP TT+, rg
ATs+ Villain
Been. Ad5d, Ad4d, Flop: Jd Tc 2d _ bets $25,
KQs, QJs, Hero calls.
RANGE
JTs, and AQot+

TT+, AJs+,
Villain
Ad5d, Ad4d,
Turn: 3h bets $50,
KQs, QJs,
Hero calls.
JTs, and AQo+

JJ KGS;
JTs, Adkd, Villain
AdQd, Ad5d, River: 6d bets $150,
Ad4d, and AKo Hero calls.
RANGE (with a diamond)

Step 4: Start Your Engines 97

 >> PRACTICE POINT: <<
USING THE HAND RANGE FUNNEL

Commit to practicing this process of using a Hand Range Funnel to

review your hands following each session. | recommend doing this
exercise at least three times to improve your hand-reading skills. A
prerequisite is to have extremely accurate details about the hand,
such as stack sizes, positions, bet sizes, and exact suits and cards.
That’s why | recommend writing down hands in real time so you
don’t forget any details.

*PRO TIP: / capture hands on my iPhone using the notes tab.

To make recording a breeze, | preformat my phone 30 times before
each session by copying and pasting the details | need to capture.
A sample blank note looks like this:
a

Stack Size:
Preflop:
Flop:
Turn:
River:
Notes:

Then | fill in the blanks in between one hand and another. When
done correctly, it should look something like this:

Stack Size: $500

Preflop: H raises UTG to $15 w/ AcAs. V calls on button.
Flop: Jd, 4d, and 2s. Hero bets $30. V calls.
Turn: 3c. Hero bets $90. V calls.
River: Kh. Hero bets $225. V folds.
Notes: Should | have checked the river to let him bluff?

You'll notice that | further abbreviated “Hero” to “H” and Villain to

“V.” This helps me save time while documenting this at the table.

98 The Poker Coach

The Hand Range Funnel in Practice

It was day one of the $10,000 Buy In World Series of Poker Main
Event. With the blinds at $100/$200 and a $50,000 chip stack, the
following hand took place.

% Preflop: Folds to the highjack (HJ), who raises to $600. | call

on the button with 9c9s, and both the SB and BB call.

% Pot: $2,400

% Flop: 7s 6d 2h

All players check to me, and | opt to bet $800, about one-third of the
pot. We’ll discuss bet sizing more on page 126, but betting between
one-third and half of the pot on dry boards is often the best approach.
Only the big blind calls.
Before sharing my thoughts with you, I’d like to give you the oppor-
tunity to write out his hand range. Remember, he called from the big
blind, closing the action and getting great pot odds, so his preflop
range should be very wide. Therefore, he’ll have plenty of hands that
can call this flop as well. When doing this exercise, | like to divide
the Villain’s range into two categories: value, or strong hands, and
draws, or weak hands. Not only does this make it easier to ensure I’m
accounting for all possibilities, but it heips me conceptually understand
whether I’m likely to be ahead or behind. Here’s what | estimated.

VALUE/STRONG HANDS: TT, 99, 88, 77-66; 55, 44, 33, 22; 76s;>
760; A7s-73s, A6s-86s, 65s, 64s, 63s, A2s, A70, 970, 870, 750, A6o,
860, and A2o.

DRAWS/WEAK HANDS: AJs-A8s, A5s-A3s, KQs, KJs, KTs, T9s, T8s,

98s, 95s, 85s, 84s, 54s, 53s, AJo-A80, A50-A30, KQo, KJo, T90, T8o,
980, and 540.

| separated the hands in order of strength and depending on whether

or not they were suited. You can see several hands are crossed out.
Although the Villain could have these hands preflop, | eliminated
them from his range based on the assumption that my opponent
would check-raise the flop with most of his strong hands. (Most play-
ers take this line to get value from their hands and protect against

Step 4: Start Your Engines 99

potential draws.) Therefore, the fact he merely called means that he
cannot have these hands.
Also, | figured my opponent would call this flop with any pair.
Remember, anytime someone bets one-third of the pot, the other
player is getting 4:1 pot odds, meaning they need a mere 20 percent
equity to continue. | assumed he’d call the flop with any reasonable
draw, including hands with only one possibility of making a straight
(called “inside straight draws” or “gut shots”), for the same reason as
before. Finally, | included some high card hands in his check-calling
range, as they can potentially be the best hand against my wide post-
flop betting range from the button.
Notice how none of these assumptions are crazy or complex but
rather straightforward and logical. This is the essence of hand read-
ing. In case you’re curious, this is an extremely favorable situation for
me, as my pocket nines have roughly 80 percent equity against the
Villain’s potential holdings.
Of course, I’m not a computer and don’t know my exact equity
in real time. | simply am aware that I’m very likely to have the best
hand (again, because if my opponent had something better, he would
have either re-raised preflop or check-raised the flop). Therefore,
it’s very likely I’m up against a weaker pair or draw, both of which |
currently beat.

POT: $4,000

TURN: Kc

The Villain bets out $1,400. Taking the lead on this particular turn
after check-calling the flop is a very strange play. It’s here where our
opponent's hand range becomes quite polar, meaning it contains very
strong hands or bluffs.

Write out what you believe his most likely range is before we tackle

it together: 7—__——_——— nn kee

100 The Poker Coach

 In real time, I’m running through the various possibilities of each cat-
egory of hand (strong and weak). Here’s what | believe that looks like.

STRONG HANDS: KQs, KJs, KTs, K7s, KQo, and KJo.

WEAK HANDS: #95; T8s, 98s; 95s, 85s, 84s, 54s, 53s, F906; T80,
980; and 540.

Why so few hands? Well, it doesn’t make sense for the Villain to
be betting this turn with a hand like 7x. Why would he bet a seven
when the king comes? I’m not folding anything better than his pair of
sevens, nor am | calling with much worse, so this bet accomplishes
little. Since we eliminated his premium hands on the flop, like sets and
a two pair, the Villain’s primary value hands are a turned pair of kings.
Whether he can even have a random king (written as “Kx”) is specu-
lative to begin with, as some players will not check-call a 762 board
with king high out of position, but | included them in his range just to
be conservative.
His bluffs contain some flopped straight draws, which are now
attempting to buy this pot by representing a king. You'll notice |
discounted some of his bluffs (T9 and 98), as he’s not going to neces-
sarily bluff with 100 percent frequency. Of course, I’m not exactly sure
whether he’s more likely to bluff with 54s than he is with 98s, so | just
guess. It doesn’t matter much either way, as my equity will be close to
the same regardless.
Facing this bet, | can see there are a few hands that beat me and
many hands that don’t. Getting nearly 4:1, |need only 20 percent
equity to justify calling. Without running this through a calculator, it’s
clear I’ll have the best hand here for at least that amount, so | called.

POT: $6,800

RIVER: Qc

The Villain bets out $2,300.

What is the Villain’s hand range?

pe

Step 4: Start Your Engines 101

 Analyzing his range at this point was actually quite simple because
nothing really changed. If he has the strong hands he was represent-
ing on the turn, he’ll almost certainly bet them again for value on the
river. Since | didn’t raise him on the turn, he’s likely to think his pair of
kings would be the best hand. Likewise, if he’s bluffing, he’ll probably
take another stab.
Since his range seemingly didn’t change from the turn to the
river, my decision was actually easy. |’m still getting the exact same
pot odds, which means he only needs to be bluffing with a mere
20 percent frequency for me to justify calling. And since we already
established that is likely to be the case on the turn, and nothing
changed, the same is true on the river as well.
| called, he turned over ace-ten offsuit, and | won myself a nice pot.
While | didn’t actually include AT in his range (based on the assump-
tion that he would check it down and hope to win at showdown),
what’s important is that | was correct in understanding that his range
as a whole was likely to be weak, and therefore it was probable that
| had the best hand. On both the turn and the river, | was weighing
my equity (based on his range) against my pot odds to determine
whether | could profitably continue. In essence, this is how | make all
decisions at the poker table.
But what if you don’t have an equity calculator handy and need to _
run these numbers in real time? How can you determine, for certain,
whether you have the best hand based on the range of your oppo-
nent? In the next section I'll walk you through how you can precisely
know whether to call or fold based on the range of hands your oppo-
nent can have. We’ll do this by using an advanced poker concept
called “counting combos.”

Counting Combos

To make decisions in real time, professionals do what’s called “count-

ing combos.” Combos are simply the combinations of hands or ways
in which you can be dealt a specific hand. For example, pocket aces
have six possible combinations (AcAs, AcAd, AcAh, AsAd, AsAh,
and AdAh).

102 The Poker Coach

 This process is so effective because you can understand the exact
probability of your opponent having a specific holding, then deter-
mine the likelihood of having the best hand. To use combinations
to make decisions in real time, memorize the basic combinations of
hands that follow:

PREFLOP:

% Total Non-Paired Hands: (AKo + AKs) 16 combos

% Offsuit Hands: (AKo) 12 combos

% Suited Hands: (AKs) four combos

% All Pairs: (AA) six combos

POSTFLOP:

% Over pairs: six combos

> Top Pair: (AA on a JT4 board) if playing both offsuit and
suited hands preflop, 12 combos

Top Pair: (AK on a K74 board) if playing only suited hands

preflop, three combos

Two Pair: (JTs on a T83 board) if playing both offsuit and

suited hands preflop, nine combos

Two Pair: (AK on a AK4 board) if playing suited cards, two or

three, depending on the board. For example, on a KsQs3d
board, there are three combinations of KQs (KQh, KQc,
two
and KQd), whereas on a KsQd3d board, there are only
combos of KQs (KQc and KQh).

Nut Flushes: nine combos (assuming all suited Ax combos

are played preflop)

Sets: three combos

Quads: (55 on a T52 board) one combo

Step 4: Start Your Engines 103

Let’s take a look at an example from this above and practice counting
combos. Recall that your opponent’s range is as follows:

STRONG HANDS: kQs, KJs, KTs, K7s, KQo, and KJo

WEAK HANDS: T8s, 95s, 85s, 84s, 54s, 53s, T80, and 540

For each potential holding, write out the number of combinations of

hands your opponent can have, both for value and as bluffs. Remem-
ber, the final board is 7s, 6d, 2h, Kc, and Qc.

STRONG HANDS: KQs , KJs ,KTs aS aie>

and KJo

WEAK HANDS: T8s nI5S , 85s , 84s , 54s §

53s , 180 , and 540 8

*PRO TIP: You may be wondering why there are only two combos of 95s
instead of four. That’s because we have two nines in our hand, thereby block-
ing two of the possible 95s combos our opponent can have (95c and 95s).
Holding a card that prevents your opponent from having a certain hand is
called a “blocker,” and it’s important to take these into account when evaluat-
ing your opponent's range.

1 STRONG HANDS: KQs 3, KJs 3, KTs 3.,K7s 2, KQo 6 ,KJo9

WEAK HANDS; T8s 4 , 95s 2, 85s 4, 84s 4, 54s 4 ,53s 4, T80 12 ,540 12

104 The Poker Coach

Now simply count the total combos of his strong and weak hands.

STRONG HANDS: 26

WEAK HANDS: 46

To calculate your equity in real time, use this simple formula.

EQUITY = BLUFF COMBOS / TOTAL COMBOS

EQUITY = 46 / (26+46)

EQUITY = 64%

This 64 percent equity represents the probability that we will have the
best hand. In practice, | don’t worry about getting the exact percent-
age correct. | simply round the numbers to get a close approximation.
Anything within 5 percent will suffice. In this case, I'd estimate 50/75 =
67 percent. Running this through an equity calculator will confirm this.

Step 4: Start Your Engines 105

 PLAYER HAND RANGE (2 Players) EQUITY COMBINATIONS

— ——— =
KTs+, K7s, T8s, 95s, 85s-84s, Be Giese
53s+, KJo+, T80, 540 “(72/1326 combos)
an a SR 5 ee, a aS Re FAR Spee pence Ge pee wae
A8s “ar . |Ads |A3s | A2s |
sa ne in ee
|ex K3s | K2s |

Q3s Q2s —

|
| 87s 86s

106 The Poker Coach

 To make a decision, | then compare my equity of 64 percent to my
pot odds and call whenever my equity is greater than my break-even
point. Since our pot odds are 4:1, we need 20 percent equity to justify
calling, so this is an absolute slam-dunk call. As you can see, count-
ing combos is crucial to getting an accurate estimate of your equity
in real time. When simply visualizing the range or even looking at it
written out, it’s easy to misattribute significance to one category of
hand, leading you to make the wrong decision. By assigning specific
weights to each hand your opponent can have, you ensure you're
always making a profitable choice. To learn more about mastering the
art of hand reading, counting combos, and applying this practice to
your game, refer to the membership program at ConsciousPoker.com.
Now that you’re equipped with all the information, I'd like to put it
all together by walking you through the exact four-step process l use
for making decisions each time I’m faced with one at the poker table.

The FOUR-Step Process for Making Decisions

My FOUR-Step Process is a methodology you can apply to any situ-

ation against any opponent in any game. By following my checklist,
you can rest assured you'll make the best decision each time you're
faced with one. In working with clients and in my own game, I’ve
found having a system limits the possibility of making mistakes and
of
works especially well when under pressure. Here is an overview
the FOUR process:

FACTOR: Identify your opponent’s hand range. Determine all the

hands your opponent can have at any given time.

two
ORGANIZE: Categorize and divide your opponent's hands into
categories: hands you beat and hands you don't.

UNDERSTAND: Review the pot odds and break-even point. This will
help you know if you're getting the right price to call.

by deter-
~ RATIONALIZE: Always make the best decisions possible
mining if you’re getting the right price to call.

Step 4: Start Your Engines 107

 You are already familiar with all of these steps, as we have cov-
ered them in the previous sections, but putting them together
succinctly and in a linear order will help you remain consistent in the
decision-making process. The following is an example of the process
in action, as used while playing a hand on Poker Night in America.
With the blinds at $25/$50 and $100 straddle, | open in the HJ to
$350 with AhAs. A rather tight player calls in the CO, a solid pro calls
on the button, and the straddle comes along as well.

POT: $1,475

FLOP: Kh Jd 7c

The BB checks, and | make a continuation bet of $900. The CO calls,

the button folds, and the BB calls quickly and casually. (Remember, a
quick call is often a sign of weakness.) Given that nobody raised and
my read on the big blind, I’m fairly confident | have the best hand.
Get in the habit of approximating your opponent’s ranges each
time a new action is taken to ensure accuracy throughout the pro-
cess. This approach is much preferred to waiting until the river, where
it’s easy to forget the action or improperly include or exclude a hand
in your opponent’s range.
Step one is to analyze their range, and step two is to break it into ©
two categories: hands | beat and hands | don’t. Again, I’m doing this
throughout the hand. You'll notice I’ve also included the possible
combos next to each potential holding, and while I’m not specifically
tallying them up during the hand, as | don’t have time, | intuitively
have an idea of whether I’m ahead or behind, as I’ve run the num-
bers countless times in the lab. The more you repeat this process of
putting your opponents on a range and then determining your equity
(which you can do at any time using an equity calculator), the better
you'll get at approximating it in real time.

108 The Poker Coach

co

HANDS | BEAT: AQs (2), AJs (1), ATs (2), QUs (3), JTs (3), KQs (3),
KTs (3), K9s (3), QTs (3), T9s (3), AQo (6), ATo (6), and @te (Note:
We can eliminate QTo because he would fold it preflop.)

HANDS | DON’T: 77 (3), KJs (2), KJo (6), «ands (Note: We can
eliminate these pairs because he would three-bet them preflop.)

Bonus Exercise: Can you tell me why the CO can only have one
combination of AJs??

BB

HANDS | BEAT: KQs (3), KTs (3), K9s (3), K8s (3), K6s (3), K5s (3),
QTs (4), T9s (4), KQo (9), KTo (9), QTo (12), and T9o (12)

HANDS | DON’T: 774-<7s-andJ7s (Note: | eliminated all

combinations of these based on my assumption that he would
raise the flop with his strong holdings facing a bet and a call,
and my strong read that his loose and casual call was a sign of
weakness.)

| skewed the BB’s range toward weaker holdings based on my intui-

tive read. I’m a firm believer that live reads play an important part in
into
helping observant players construct ranges and should be taken
account. Reads don’t conflict with the theory or math but rather help
you further define an opponent's most likely holdings. You can see
the
how that works in practice from the range | gave my opponent on
flop, eliminating his strong holdings based on how he acted when
calling the flop bet.

POT: $4,175

TURN: 2s

) prevents my opponent from having

2 The fact | have two aces in my hand (called “blockers”
(AhJh and AsJs). Therefore , the only remaining possible
two out of the three AJs combinations
big blind overcalle d, | went through the same process of
combination of AJs is AcJc. When the
it into two categorie s (step 2)
identifying his hand range (step 1) and breaking

Step 4: Start Your Engines 109

 The BB checks, | fire out $2,200, and the CO calls. Here, I’m a
bit more concerned about the CO having me beat with KJ or 77,
although there are still plenty of hands I’m ahead of. Here’s how his
range looks:

(exe)

HANDS | BEAT: KQs (3), KTs (3), K9s (3), and KQo (9)

HANDS | DON’T: 77 (3), KJs (2), and KJo (6)

Using the Hand Range Funnel method, | eliminated all the weaker
holdings from his range, such as ace-high, straight draws (QT and TQ),
and mediocre value hands (a pair of jacks). | believe this makes per-
fect sense, as he wouldn't call these hands facing a second bet from
me, in particular with a player behind him.
After the CO called, the BB went into the tank, counted out his
stack, and finally called. Again, I’m sure | have him beat at this point,
not purely based on his antics but also on the fact that he would
certainly raise if he had anything better than two aces. | assumed his
range to be as follows:

BB

HANDS | BEAT: KQs (3), QTs (4), T9s (4), KQo (9), QTo (12), and
T90 (12)
HANDS | DON’T: none

You can see the BB’s range narrowed significantly as well. After facing
a bet and a call on the turn, he’s unlikely to overcall with a weak king.
In fact, despite it being a lesser holding, he’s far more likely to con-
tinue with a draw because it plays better (i.e., has more equity) than a
pair of kings against the likely ranges of his two opponents. In short,
with a pair of kings, he could have no chance of winning (otherwise
referred to as “drawing dead”) if he’s up against a two pair or a set.
With a hand like QT, however, the BB has several things going for
him: (1) he can make the nuts, (2) he’s getting a good price to draw
(pot odds), and (3) he stands to win a big pot if he improves (implied
odds). Therefore, draws should comprise a decent part of his range.

110 The Poker Coach

 POT: $10,775

RIVER: 9h

Now the BB, with a bit of force, bets out $3,300. Since | had already
been narrowing down his range throughout the hand, | simply had to
determine which part of his turn calling range would lead out on the
river, then determine which part of it | could beat.

BB HAND RANGE

HANDS | BEAT: K@s/<@o - He would never bet the river with KQ,
as it has too much showdown value to consider turning into a
bluff, and it will never get called by a worse hand, therefore we
can discount it.

T9S/T90: This is his most conceivable bluff. While there are

12 possible combos of TQ, he certainly won't bluff into two
opponents with 100 percent of them. We can estimate he'll
bluff roughly one-third of the time with this hand, for a total of
four combos.

HANDS | DON’T BEAT: QTs and QTo (16 combos)

Once I’ve completed step one and step two, | go through the rest
of the FOUR-Step Process to make my decision. In step three, |
determine my pot odds and break-even point. The pot is roughly
$11,000, and I’m facing a bet of $3,300. Therefore, my pot odds are
$11,000:$3,300, which is equivalent to 3.3:1. Since | committed the
pot odds chart to memory, | know that 3:1 represents a 25 percent
point,
break-even point, and 4:1 represents a 20 percent break-even
call it
so 3.3:1 will be somewhere in between those two fractions. Let’s
22.5 percent.
the
In step four, to make the best decision, | simply need to weigh
deter-
probability that | have the best hand against my pot odds to
mine if | have the right price to call. | do this by counting combos.
rd of his
You'll remember that | beat four combos of bluffs (one-thi
(all the
42 total T9 combinations) and lose to 16 combos of value
Combos/Total
QT combos). Since my equity is always equal to Bluff
Combos, | simply plug in the numbers.

Step 4: Start Your Engines 111

 EQUITY: four bluff combos/20 total combos

EQUITY: 20 percent

Now | simply compare my equity to my break-even point to see if |

can profitably call.

EQUITY: 20 percent

BREAK-EVEN POINT: 22 percent

Since my equity is lower than my break-even point, |’ll have to fold

this hand. Remember, anytime your equity is greater than your
break-even point, you should continue. If not, you should fold
(unless you have implied odds or can outplay your opponent later).
You'll notice that these numbers are close, making this roughly a
break-even call. However, when we factor in that | have a player
behind me who could still have me beat (11 of his total 29 combos are
better than my two aces), it makes this a clear fold. And, after going
through this FOUR-Step Process in my head, that’s exactly what | did.
The CO ended up calling with a set of 7s, and the big blind won the
pot with QTo for a rivered straight. | was beat by both players and
saved quite a bit of money that | “should have” otherwise lost.
My hope is that you will commit to reviewing this process in the
lab following each session you play to make it more automatic during
your sessions. Just like learning to ride a bike or drive a stick shift car,
eventually it will become second nature. Now that you’re proficient
in the decision-making process, it’s time to dig into the nuances of
poker strategy and understand when you should make your bets and
how to size them to keep your opponents guessing.

12 The Poker Coach

 >> PRACTICE POINT <<

For more content on how to work through this process in the lab,
including a step-by-step tutorial video of exactly how | work with
PokerCruncher and crunch numbers, check out The Best Way to
Study Poker post on ConsciousPoker.com.

Step 4: Start Your Engines 13

hee
ee!
—s
STEP 5: LEARN THE TACTICS

In this chapter, we’ll get clear on the principles of bet-

ting strategy. Timing your bets (both for value and asa
bluff) is crucial if you want to excel at the game. While
mastering this process is an art that requires practice,
ll share some guiding principles to help you along
the way. You'll also learn the fundamentals behind
how to size your bets for success and calculate their
expectation, ensuring that each wager you make is a
profitable one.
How to Time and Size Your Bluffs
As we explored in Core Concept #2: Hand Types on page 42, one
typically bets for three reasons:

1. Value: a hand that wants to win money from his opponent’s

weaker holdings.

2. Semi-Bluff: a hand with a lot of potential (equity) that hopes

to fold out better hands (commonly referred to as “denying
equity”) from his opponent’s range or win a big pot if the
hand is “made.”

3. Air: a hand with little or no chance of winning that can

only win the pot by betting. These are often referred to as
“stone-cold bluffs” and are rarely made, except on the river.

The fact that bluffs represent two of the three reasons for betting
leads some people to suspect that they should be bluffing often. The
opposite is true, and theory tells us why. When bluffing on the river,
the rule of thumb is to aim to have one bluff combination for every
two value combinations. The reason is based on the odds your oppo-
nent is getting to call your bet, which in turn dictates his strategy.
Here’s an example to illustrate this concept:
The Hero bets $100 into a pot of $100 on the river as a complete
bluff. You already know the Villain, getting 2:1 pot odds, needs to be
“right” 33 percent of the time to justify calling. With this in mind, you
can reverse engineer to determine your optimal bluffing frequency.
If you have one bluff combo for every two-value combos, you'll be
bluffing one-third of the time, thereby making the Villain indifferent as
to whether you should call or fold. This can be illustrated by hypothe-
sizing three possible outcomes from the Villain’s perspective:

116 The Poker Coach

 SCENARIO 1: The Hero is bluffing. The Villain calls and wins $200
(the pot of $100 plus the Hero’s $100 bet).

SCENARIO 2: The Hero is value betting. The Villain calls and loses
his $100 call.

SCENARIO 3: The Hero is value betting. The Villain calls and loses
his $100 call.

VILLAIN NET RESULT: $0

By keeping your range properly balanced between bluffs and value

bets relative to your bet sizes, you make it impossible for the oppo-
nent to show a long-term profit against you. The best they can hope
for is to break even. This is the equilibrium (or “balance”) profession-
als seek when playing against tough competition.
The reason your bluffing frequency must be balanced relative to
your bet sizes is that the Villain’s decision will be based on the odds
they’re getting. Let’s take a look at an example: With a final pot of
$100, the Hero bets $50 on a bluff.
Take a guess as to how often the Hero should be bluffing to make
his opponent indifferent between calling and folding.

ee oe ee

ee
2.1

Again, to solve this situation, we need to take a look at the Villain’s

he
pot odds. Facing a half pot bet, the Villain is getting 3:1, meaning
e, our Hero should
needs 25 percent equity to justify calling. Therefor
a
be bluffing with one combo for every three-value combos, or with
25 percent frequency.
bluff
The secret to adopting a balanced approach is to ensure you
ent betwee n calling
at a frequency that makes your opponents indiffer
they are get-
and folding. This frequency is always equal to the odds
example s that
ting. See the chart on the next page for some common
you should commit to memory.

Step 5: Learn the Tactics 117

 VILLAIN POT IDEAL BLUFFING
alt ASA ODDS FREQUENCY

Uh, [EXON p

Naturally, your value betting frequency is simply the inverse of

your bluffs. For example, if you bet full pot, an optimal bluffing fre-
quency is 33 percent, meaning you should be value betting the other
67 percent.
When | mentioned that you should generally adopt a bluffing
frequency of 33 percent, it’s based on the loose assumption that you
always bet the size of the pot. Since we know this is not the case,
it’s more precise to bluff slightly less when betting smaller (and also
value bet with more hands), and bluff slightly more when choosing a
bigger sizing.
In the next sections, we’ll take a look at value betting and
semi-bluffing and how to correctly apply them to your game.

118 The Poker Coach

 >> PLAYING THE PLAYER <<

It’s important to be aware that the optimal bluffing frequency is

based strictly on theory and does not account for your opponent’s
tendencies. In short, it’s how the computer would play, except in
practice, you’re playing against other people. Therefore, you'll
likely find yourself in a situation where you’re confident that your
opponent is not going to fold to your bet. The proper adjustment is
simple: Don’t bluff. Going broke in the name of theory is a foolish
play and should be avoided. A player’s goal should simply be to
play each hand the best way possible. In short, | believe bluffing to
be overrated, especially in low- to medium-stakes games, where
people rarely fold, making bluffs far less effective.

How often you should bluff in practicality depends strictly on how

often your opponent will fold. This exploitative approach—aiming
to understand the tendencies of your adversaries and adjusting to
them—is what | recommend in nearly all situations. This is because
your typical Villain will not make decisions based on theory or even
what hand they may assume you have but based on their current
mood, emotional state, and how they feel about their hand. There-
fore, playing the player is almost always the best strategy.

When to Value Bet

“value
As you recall from Core Concept #2: Hand Types on page 42,
called
betting” means to bet with a strong hand in hopes of getting
people
by one of your opponents. When it comes to value betting,
typically do so for one of two reasons:

4
ie Protection: to deny equity from hands that could draw out
against theirs.
a
Value: to get an opponent to put money in the pot with
worse hand.

Step 5: Learn the Tactics 119

 Betting for protection or to “deny equity” is important when your
hand is vulnerable to the potential cards that can come. A common
example is when someone has a weak top pair where any over card
could potentially make their opponent a better top pair.
Betting for value is done when you havea strong hand that can
easily get called by worse holdings. As is often the case, you may be
betting for a combination of both. Keep in mind that no two situations
are the same and your strategy will depend heavily on the communal
cards (also called “board texture”). Let’s take a look at a few examples
to help illustrate these concepts.
In a $2/$5 NL cash game, the Hero raises on the button with Ah8h,
and the Villain calls in the BB.

POT: $32

FLOP: 8c 5d 2h

The Villain checks.

© ANALYSIS: The Hero has a clear bet. First, he can deny equity from the
Villain, who could easily have two over cards, and perhaps even a backdoor
straight or flush draw to go along with it (e.g., JTs or T9s). Second, the Hero
could easily get called by worse hands: 8x, smaller pairs such as 77, 66, or 5x,
and even some draws like 76s, A4s, or A3s, making this a great spot to get
value from his opponent.

To recap, checking is best in situations when: (1) you benefit little from
protection; (2) you cannot get called by many worse hands; and (3)
you cannot win bets on multiple streets (typically when one has to
check at least one street, the flop is best, as it keeps the pot small,
also called “pot control”). Betting is best in situations when: (1) your
hand needs protection and benefits from denying equity; (2) you can
get called by many worse hands; and (3) you can profitably bet multi-
ple streets because the hand is so strong.
There’s one more important consideration for value betting, in
particular to river situations. We already discussed why you need to
bet with strong hands to balance out bluffs. Where players go wrong,
however, is in betting simply because they believe they have the best

120 The Poker Coach

hand while failing to account for their bet’s expected value (EV). To
calculate your expectation on any given bet, you must determine the
probability of getting called by a worse hand, otherwise referred to as
“equity when called.” Let’s take a look at an example to illustrate this
critical concept.
In a $2/$5 NL cash game, the Hero opens in mid position to $15,
with AhQh, and the SB calls.

POT: $32

FLOP: As Td 4c

The Villain checks, the Hero bets $20, and the Villain calls.

POT: $72

TURN: 9s

The Villain checks, the Hero bets $50, and the Villain calls.

POT: $172

RIVER: 8d

The Villain checks.

While it’s very possible the Hero has the best hand, that’s not enough
the
to justify a river bet. He must not only consider the range of hands
Villain can have but what part of that range will call another bet.
For example, we can assume our opponent’s range on the river
A8s,
looks something like this: TT, 44, A2s, A3s, A4s, A5s, A6s, A7s,
AQs, ATs, AJs, AQs, QsJs, KsJs, JsTs, KsTs, QsTs, and AQo.
range
Running a quick calculation shows us our equity against that
le bet since
is 56 percent. On the surface, this can seem like a profitab
, we must make our
we're a favorite to have the best hand. However
merely our
decisions based on our equity when our bet is called, not
when called is
overall equity. Naturally, if we determine our equity
than betting.
less than 50 percent, checking would be more profitable
lf we break down our opponent'’s range, this concep t should
the Villain can
become clear. For example, one of the possible hands

Step 5: Learn the Tactics 121

have is KsJs, but of course he will never call the river with king high.
Therefore, the EV of our bet against this hand is zero. The same holds
true for other hands in our opponent’s range as well.
Estimating the range of hands your opponent will call with is a skill
that requires practice, and, as always, your approximation should be
made based on what you know about the Villain. Some players call
way too liberally (otherwise referred to as “calling stations”) and may
never fold an ace on the river. Others will correctly read the Hero for
a strong top pair or better and will fold unless they have a monster.
When in doubt, estimate what you believe their calling range should
be and use that as a baseline.
| believe the Villain’s calling range will look something like this: TT,
44, A8s, AQYs, ATs, QsJs, AQs, AJs, and AGo. Our equity here is an
abysmal 26 percent. Therefore, it becomes clear that checking is far
superior to betting since we will get called (or raised) by a better hand
nearly three-quarters of the time.
The last thing to consider is the probability that you will realize your
equity, meaning you will see your opponent’s hand at showdown.
Remember, there’s a non-zero chance your opponent will raise you
on this river, either for value or as a bluff. In both cases, you’ll have to
fold, as there are simply too many hands that can beat you. By betting
the river, you open the door to getting raised by some of your Villain’s
bluffs (hands like JsTs or QsTs), forcing you to fold the best hand.
In practicality, this diminishes your 26 percent equity, since some
of the time you have the best hand you won't realize that equity
because you'll fold the winner. In short, factoring in the chance of
getting outplayed should make you slightly more conservative when
betting. Again, the weight you should put on this varies widely by
player, so you'll have to use good judgment to determine how big
of a variable this should play into your decision-making. Having a
plan helps to reduce the possibility of making emotional decisions
and mistakes. If you decide to bet thinly for value on the river (with a
hand like Ak), it’s best to know what you will do if you get raised (in
this case, fold). You can always change your mind in the heat of the
moment if you get a strong read.
Now that you’re versed in the science of betting, let’s take a look
at how to optimally size your bets. But first, you have to better under-
stand when you should be applying pressure to begin with.

122 The Poker Coach

Range Advantages and Range Leverage

You may have heard the poker tip “Play the situation.” What that
really means is that you should not be making decisions based on
the actual hand you’re holding but rather all of the possible hands at
any given time in comparison to the hands your opponent can have.
In short, play your range against the opponent’s range, and bet when
the situation favors you. This helps to not only adopt a balanced strat-
egy and keep opponents guessing but also ensures you’re making
profitable bets when the odds are in your favor.
Being in a situation when your range is stronger than the oppo-
nent’s is called having a “range advantage” or “range leverage.”
Imagine you’re a kid playing on a teeter-totter and the ups and
downs of you and your opponent are determined by who is more
likely to have a strong hand. Whenever you find yourself in a situation
where your side of the pendulum is close to the ground, you have
“range leverage.”
Having the pendulum in your favor, or having “range leverage,”
is an opportune time to be aggressive, both with bluffs and strong
hands. Choosing to make bets based on your leverage is called “play-
ing your range” and is a practice you'll want to adopt when deciding
whether or not to bet.
Let’s take a look at a common example where the Hero has range
leverage and therefore should bet almost regardless of his particular
hand. To avoid bias, I’ll exclude disclosing holdings from the examples
so as to keep the focus on playing the situation instead of the individ-
ual hand.

HAND EXAMPLE #1

Hero opens UTG to $15 in a $2/$5 NL cash game, and the BB calls.

POT: $32

FLOP: Ac Ks 6d

The BB checks.

Step 5: Learn the Tactics 123

This is a great betting opportunity for the Hero. You’re already familiar
with the idea of a continuation bet (betting postflop because you are
the original raiser), but the reason this play is effective is that the orig-
inal raiser almost always has a stronger range than the preflop caller
and therefore can represent hands the caller cannot have.
In this example, the Hero can credibly have AA, KK, and AK,
whereas the BB cannot simply because he didn’t three-bet preflop.
The fact that there are more extremely premium hands in the Hero’s
range means he has what’s called a “nut advantage,” or more hands
in his range containing the nuts, or close to it.
Not only does the Hero have a nut advantage, but he also has a
range advantage because his range contains far more Ax hands than
the Villain’s. Betting in situations when you have both a nut and a
range advantage are ideal, and you should almost always do so. How-
ever, as you’re well aware, things aren’t always that easy.

HAND EXAMPLE #2

Hero raises UTG to $15 in a $2/$5 NL cash game, and the Villain calls
in the BB.

POT: $32

FLOP: 6c 6h 5d

The Villain checks.

Before we go any further, try to answer these two questions on your

own. Circle the best answer.

Who has a range advantage? HERO VILLAIN

Who has a nut advantage? HERO VILLAIN

124 The Poker Coach

This situation is unique, as the Hero has a range advantage (his range
contains more strong hands, such as over pairs), while the Villain has
a nut advantage, since he’s more likely to have called with a 6x hand
from the BB than the Hero is to have raised with it from UTG. Having
a range advantage but not a nut advantage presents a predicament
for the Hero as to whether he should bet or check. Play the player. Is
the Villain aware that he can more easily represent a six, and does he
have the courage to check-raise on a bluff based on that knowledge?
Will he follow through with his plan and continue betting on the turn
and river? Most of the time, | find the answer to be “no,” so | worry less
about being outplayed by my lack of nut advantage and focus more on
leveraging my range advantage with a continuation bet.
Against more competent and capable opponents, you may have to
exercise caution and check behind on this flop. A simple adjustment
to keep yourself balanced is to also include stronger holdings in your
checking range (e.g., JJ-AA). This will prevent you from getting easily
bluffed on the turn and river.
Finally, let’s take a look at an example in which the Hero has nei-
ther a compelling range nor a nut advantage and should proceed
with caution.

HAND EXAMPLE #3

The Hero raises to $15 in a $2/$5 NL cash game in the CO, and the
Villain calls on the button.

POT: $32

FLOP: 8s 7s 5c

calls.
The Hero makes a continuation bet of $20, and the Villain

POT: $72

TURN: 6d

Step 5: Learn the Tactics 125

On the turn, the button can have at least the same, if not more, 9x
hands than the Hero. With the Hero not being able to rule outa
straight from the Villain’s range, a bluff here would be merely specu-
lative. Since the Hero has neither a range nor nut advantage, it’s a
good situation to proceed with caution and check to the Villain.
As you’re now aware, it’s not only the cards that dictate our deci-
sions but the situation as well. By determining who has a nut and
range advantage, you can better understand which opportunities to
take advantage of, when to apply pressure, or when to put on the
breaks. Armed with this information, it’s time to determine the optimal
bet size to make.

>> PRACTICE POINT <<

For a detailed breakdown of how to use range leverage to outwit

the competition, check out this “Hand of the Day” episode from the
Conscious Poker YouTube channel: bit.ly/rangeleverage.

How to Size Your Bets for Success

To determine the optimal bet size, ask yourself this fundamental ques-
tion: “How often am | betting in this specific situation?” First, look at
the range of hands you can potentially hold, then estimate with what
percentage of that range you would bet in this given spot. You can
then follow this general principle: The more frequently you are betting
(or more precisely, the greater percentage of range that is betting),
the smaller the bet should be. This is particularly true when you have
a strong range and nut advantage, equities are polar (meaning you
are likely to either be way ahead or way behind), and there's little

126 The Poker Coach

need for protection, meaning that few cards can come to make the
Villain’s hand better than yours. (See Example for “Checks and Calls”
in Core Concept #2: Hand Types on page 42.)
Inversely, the less often you are betting and the more benefit
there is to be had from protection, the larger the sizing should be. So
what does one’s frequency of betting have to do with sizing? Recall
that you’re making decisions based on your overall range, not your
individual hand. A wider range will contain more bluffs, which means
you can afford to risk less to win the pot. The weaker your range as a
whole, the lower your equity will be on average, meaning you'll need
to risk less money relative to the pot to be able to show a long-term
profit. Let’s take a look at a few examples to illustrate this point.

BET SIZING ON DRY BOARDS

In Hand Example #1 from the previous section (page 123), we estab-

lished the Hero would bet nearly 100 percent of the time with both a
nut and range advantage. Since his preflop holdings (both his bluffs
and value) will want to bet this flop, his overall range will contain more
air in it, lowering his equity. Therefore, he’ll need to choose a small
bet sizing (typically one-third of the pot) to give himself the appropri-
ate risk/reward.
Second, the board texture is very dry, meaning there are few
hands with which the Villain could continue. Third, the Hero needs
little protection, as he’s likely to either be way ahead or way behind.
(For example, if the Hero has AQ, he dominates the Villain’s worse Ax
hands but is way behind if the Villain has two pairs or a set.) You can
his
better understand why the Hero must vary his bet size based on
betting frequency by calculating his equity against the Villain’s calling
range. To illustrate this concept, let’s assume two hypothetical sce-
anda
narios, one where the Hero bets with a 100 percent frequency
frequency . Here’s the Hero’s
second where he bets with a 50 percent
equity when betting with 100 percent frequency.

Step 5: Learn the Tactics 127

 PLAYER HAND RANGE (2 Players) EQUITY | COMBINATIONS

77+, ATs+, A5s-A3s, KQs, JTs, 7.23% —~

AQot (85/1176 combos)

JJ-22, AQs-A2s, K9s+, Q9s+,

VILLAIN J9st+, JJI-22, AQs-A2s, K9st+,
Q9st+, J9st+, T8st+

ee
—

| Q4s —Q3s Q2s )

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J4s | J3s J2s

|
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96s 95s. 94s 93s 92s

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86s 85s 84s 83s 82s

76s | 75s | 74s | 73s | 72s

66 | 65s | 64s | 63s | 62s

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650 55 54s 53s 52s |
— —- > tH {

640 540 | 44 |

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“ j i | i

Note: Hands in gold represent Hero’s range.

128 The Poker Coach

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Calculating the equities of both players is straightforward. | simply

entered the Hero’s UTG opening range (based on the GTO preflop
charts) and the Villain’s BB calling range into PokerCruncher, entered
the flop below, and hit “calculate.” As you can see in the table, when
the Hero bets 100 percent of his 85 combos, his equity against the
Villain is at 65 percent. Not bad, but now compare this with when the
Hero bets 42/85 combos, or roughly 50 percent of his range.

Step 5: Learn the Tactics 129

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The Poker Coach

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130
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As you can see, the Hero’s equity increases significantly. This explains
why you can profitably bet bigger when betting with a smaller fre-
quency; the range is stronger and overall equity is greater, affording
you the ability to risk more to win the same amount. To illustrate this
concept of risk/reward with respect to betting, see this bet sizing chart
to see how often a bet has to work in order to be profitable.

& HOW OFTEN OPPONENT

HERO BET SIZE NEEDS TO FOLD TO
BREAK EVEN

Ya POT Ys = 20%

V3 POT V4 = 25%

VY2 POT V3 = 33%

2/3 POT 4/5 = 40%

¥Y4 POT ¥, = 43%

FUEE-POT V2 = 50%

2x POT 2/3 = 66% oS

needs to
In short, the smaller you bet, the less often your opponent
when appropr iate is
fold to show a profit. Choosing a small bet sizing
a great tactic to have in your arsenal.
opt fora
Here are some other common situations when one may
smaller bet sizing:
on a dry
% Out of position (OOP) as the preflop three-bettor
SB
board texture (e.g., when the Hero three-bets from
versus when the button opens on a J42 board).

after raising
% In position when the Villain checks to the Hero
raises
preflop on most board textures (e.g., when the Villain
checks to
in MP and the Hero calls on the button. The Villain
the Hero on a 964 or T86 board).

Step 5: Learn the Tactics 131

 In position in heads-up pots.

With shorter effective stack sizes (typically in mid to late ~

stages of a tournament).

In situations where the Villain will likely react the same

regardless of the Hero’s bet size, allowing the Hero to
take advantage of a greater risk/reward by utilizing a
smaller sizing.

On dry boards where the Hero needs little protection and

equities are polar.

>> PRACTICE POINT <<

For more awesome content to help you master the art of bet sizing,
search for “bet sizing” on the Conscious Poker Blog.

132 The Poker Coach

BET SIZING ON WET BOARDS

On coordinated board textures when one or more draws are pres-

ent, there are more hands the Villain can have that flopped a decent
amount of equity, which means the Hero will be continuation betting
less often. Therefore, when the Hero does continuation bet, his over-
all range will be stronger, allowing him to risk more money relative to
the pot. Let’s take a look at an example.
In a $2/$5 NL cash game, the Hero raises UTG to $15 with KcKs,
and both the button and BB call.

POT: $52

FLOP: Td 9d 4c

On a wet board facing two opponents, you'll remember from Core

Concept #2: Hand Types on page 42 that most of the Hero’s com-
plete air (i.e., AK/AQ) will simply check this flop for fear that someone
will have flopped decent equity, and his continuation bet won’t be as
effective. Since the Hero’s overall betting frequency is far less than
in Hand Example #1 from the previous section (see page 123), he can
bet bigger with his entire betting range.
Second, with a flush and straight draw present, his opponents
can continue with many more hands. With the potential of being out
of position (OOP) and in a multi-way pot, the Hero will want to bet
bigger to charge draws, deny equity, and get value from worse hands.
So, when it comes to bet sizing, just how small is small, and how big
is big? And how should your bets vary from one board texture to
Chart
another? While there are no hard-and-fast rules, the Bet Sizing
understa nd how to
on page 134 is a great guideline to conceptually
size your bets based on the various board textures.

Step 5: Learn the Tactics 133

 HOW MUCH
TO BET

* Betting rarely with premium hands

FULL POT and massive draws *
Ts 8s 7c

* Mixed strategy, betting with some value

and some bluffs *
Kh 9h 5c

* Bet nearly 100 percent with wide range *

2h 2d 2c

Bet Sizing and Continuation Betting Chart

* Postflop continuation meeting strategy
as the preflop raiser.

Here are other common situations when the Hero may opt to choose
a larger bet sizing:

% When equities are polar, meaning the Hero is either repre-

senting a strong hand or air (e.g., as the UTG raiser versus
the BB caller after betting three streets on a KJ652 board).

% When representing a very narrow range of hands, and

both the Hero’s bluffs and value combos maximally benefit
from applying pressure (e.g., similar to the situation above,
the Hero opens UTG+1 and gets called by the button and
decides to bet three streets on a 75229 board; the Hero is

134 The Poker Coach

 representing over pairs or better and air, both of which want
to bet as big as possible).

% When representing a strong top pair or better, typically when

betting the turn (e.g., being the preflop raiser and betting the
flop and turn on a QJ52 board; the Hero is representing KQ+
or air).

% When wanting to build a pot to get stacks in by the river

(referred to as “sizing up,” on the turn).

% When having range leverage and/or a nut advantage and

wanting to apply a lot of pressure.

A last note on bet sizing. When playing against observant opponents,

it’s imperative that you bet the same size regardless of whether they
are bluffing or have a strong hand. This keeps them balanced and
makes it difficult for the opponents to easily narrow down your range.
A common mistake amateurs make is betting different amounts
with different types of hands (for example, betting full pot when they
are bluffing in hopes that their opponent will fold, and half pot with
premium hands in hopes that their opponent will call. While this
strategy is effective in a vacuum, it will cost you long-term, as good
players will quickly interpret what your bets mean and adjust accord-
ingly. In short, you should bet the same amount regardless of your
holding to keep yourself from being too predictable.
Perfecting your bet sizing strategy will require time and practice.
s
Be patient with the process. In the meantime, the guiding principle
to
in this section will give you a leg up on your competition. Be sure
refer to the following practice point to further your depth of knowl-
edge on this subject.

Step 5: Learn the Tactics 135

 >> SHHH... IT’S ASECRET <<

How to Calculate the Expectation of Your Bets

A simple way to think about betting strategy is this: When bluffing, aim to
bet the smallest amount that will get the opponent to fold. When value
betting, bet the largest amount that your opponent will call. However, to
maximize the profitability of your bets, think of a bet in terms of its expec-
tation. Let’s take a look at an example to better illustrate this concept.

With the final pot of $100, the Hero is deciding how much to bet on a bluff.
Let’s assume he has two options:

OPTION 1: Bet $50 (half pot)

OPTION 2: Bet $200 (2x pot)

You know from memorizing the bet sizing setting chart on page 131 that
a half pot bet needs to work at least 33 percent of the time, while a 2x
pot bluff needs to work 67 percent of the time. In many circumstances,
opponents will react differently to various bet sizes, typically folding more
frequently to larger ones, as they have to be “right” a higher percentage of
the time. To determine which bet size is more profitable, you must approxi-
mate the probability that your opponent will fold.

Let’s assume you’re up against an opponent who is winning, about to quit,

and doesn’t like to play big pots—a common player profile. You estimate
your half pot bet will work 50 percent of the time and your 2x pot will work
90 percent of the time. To determine which bet size is more profitable,
simply calculate the expected value (EV) of each bet and compare them.

Here’s the formula:

EXPECTED VALUE =
Probability of Winning x Reward of Winning
— Probability of Losing x Reward of Losing

136 The Poker Coach

 Half Pot Bet
EV=
50% (Probability Villain Folds) x $100 (Pot Size)
— 50% (Probability Villain Calls) x $50 (Bet Size)

EV = $25

2x Pot Bet
EV =
90% (Probability Villain Folds) x $100 (Pot Size)
— 10% (Probability Villain Calls) x $200 (Bet Size)

EV = $70

As you can see, both bets are effective, but the better play, by far,
is betting 2x the pot.

| understand it can be difficult, if not impossible, to determine the

optimal EV of every possible size in real time, but being aware of the
process helps you intuitively determine the best line. In the lab fol-
lowing your sessions, review your hands by running these quick EV
calculations to see if you can find a better option. Like developing any
skill, optimizing your bet sizing requires a marriage of repetition and
study, but I’m confident that if you put in the work, you'll see the results
in your future poker sessions.

Step 5: Learn the Tactics 137

Range Balancing

You may have heard the word “balance” thrown around at the poker
table. This simply means to play your hands in such a way that your
opponents cannot easily discern what you are holding. By taking the
same line with both strong and weak hands, you make yourself more
difficult to play against. In the same way amateurs often make the
mistake of choosing their bet size based on their hand strength, they
also play strong hands one way and weak hands another. This makes
them incredibly predictable and a prime target for better competition
and professionals. If there’s one mark of an average player, this is it.
Let’s take a look at a few examples of situations in which players
are unbalanced, meaning they play different-strength hands in differ-
ent ways, and how you can avoid this common trap.

HAND EXAMPLE #1

The Villain opens in MP to $15 in a $2/$5 NL cash game, and the

Hero calls in the BB with 4s4h.

POT: $32

FLOP: As Kc 4d

The Hero checks, the Villain bets $15,

and the Hero check-raises to $60.

© ANALYSIS: The Villain has both a nut advantage (it’s more probable that
they have AA, KK, and AK because they are the original raiser preflop), and
a range advantage (his raising range contains more Ax hands), therefore the
Hero should rarely, if ever, raise this flop. Remember, players should make their
betting decisions based on their range, not their individual holding. Since most
of the Hero’s range is weak and he will merely want to call this flop (with hands
like Ax, Kx, or two broadway cards for a straight draw), he should do so with his
stronger hands to balance out his inferior holdings.

The problem is this: If the Hero elects to check-raise with all of his premium
holdings (A4s, 44, and AK—assuming he doesn’t three-bet preflop with it) as
most players do, it decimates his calling range. When the Hero does flat call

138 The Poker Coach

this flop, his observant opponent will quickly decipher that because the Hero
did not check-raise, he cannot have a strong hand (otherwise referred to as
having a “capped range”). More specifically, the Villain will infer the Hero’s call
to mean his range is “capped” at one pair (making one pair the best hand he
can have).

You want to avoid situations in which your range is capped, as great players
can make your life miserable by applying incredible amounts of pressure. In
the situation we just looked at, for example, regardless of the Villain’s holding,
he can simply fire heavily on the turn and overbet the river, forcing the Hero
to fold, unless he somehow makes two pair on the turn or river. Therefore, the
correct adjustment for the Hero is to flat call the flop with his strong hands to
keep his range balanced and, as much as possible, prevent the Villain from
barreling him with ease. (Again, while the Hero wants the Villain to continue
betting in this specific hand, most of the time he won’t because he will merely
have a vulnerable one pair.)

The key takeaway is to play your specific hand the same way you play
the rest of your hands. Because the Hero will most often flat call this
flop, he should do so with all of his holdings.
Now let’s take a look at another common example in which many
players’ ranges are weighted too heavily toward bluffs.

HAND EXAMPLE #2

The Villain opens in MP to $15 in a $2/$5 NL cash game, and the

Hero calls in the BB with QdJd.

POT: $32

FLOP: Td 7c 4d

The Hero checks, the Villain bets $20,

and Hero check-raises to $60.

Step 5: Learn the Tactics 139

O ANALYSIS: While this can be an effective play, as the Hero has solid equity,
he must be careful not to do it too often or else he risks having too many weak
holdings relative to his strong ones.

The only premium hands in the Hero’s check-raising range are sets (and, as
you remember from the Counting Combos section on page 102, there are
three combos of every set, for a total of nine combos) and maybe two pair if
he calls preflop with T7s. But with T7s having only two possible combinations,
the Hero can have only 11 total value combos here at most. If the Hero adopts
a check-raising strategy on this flop with all of his flush and straight draws, you
can easily see how his range becomes too heavily weighted toward bluffs or
semi-bluffs. Therefore, he must opt to check-raise with a small portion of his
draws and merely flat call with the others to not overexpose himself.

HAND EXAMPLE #3

Villain opens from UTG+2 to $15 in a $2/$5 NL cash game and Hero
calls on the button with 8s7s[AT1] <4_msocom_1>.

POT: $32

FLOP: Ts 8d 4h

Villain bets $20, Hero calls.

POT: $72

FLOP: 8h

Villain bets $60.

What is the best play for the Hero here?

FOLD CALL RAISE

140 The Poker Coach

© ANALYSIS: Like many situations in poker, the answer is, it depends! So long
as you don’t fold, both calling and raising can be correct. A computer would
use a random generator to balance his frequencies in situations like these, and
while that will help one achieve perfect balance, | believe one’s goal should be
not only to create a strong overall strategy, but to maximize every situation.

Balancing one’s range is one of the most challenging aspects of

poker and the mark of a great player. Ask yourself, “How would | play
most of my range in this situation?” and then take that same line with
both your strong and weak holdings. In short, analyzing your range
as a whole and thinking about how you want to play each part of it
should give you insight into what line to take.
A word of caution to the wise: Being balanced is not a license to
over-bluff or play too loose. Good players choose frequencies that
predominantly keep their range strong at all times and rarely take
aggressive action when they are representing a very narrow range
of hands to avoid bluffing too frequently. Picking the specific bluffs
to check-raise in situations like Hand Example #2 requires a deep
understanding of game theory that is beyond the scope of this book.
But as a general rule, you should have no more than equal parts
semi-bluffs and premium hands.
In my experience, people bluff too often with marginal draws when
they are representing too few value hands. When in doubt, simply call
and realize your equity. With a strong draw on the flop (Hand Example
#2), you'll almost always be getting sufficient pot odds to continue
against your opponent's range. Lastly, by keeping your bluffs to a min-
imum, you will be more effective and threatening when you do make
them. As with many things in life, timing is key, a skill that comes
with experience.
Now that you’re equipped with the tools and resources of the pros,
it’s time to tackle the final frontier of what it takes to crush it at poker:
the mental game.

Step 5: Learn the Tactics 141

STEP 6: MASTERING THE MENTAL GAME

As most players will attest, there’s a huge difference

between their A game and C game. While you should
continually work to make your A game better, another
way to increase your win rate is to simply play your A
game more often. Consistency is what separates the
best from the rest. Poker is a game of inches (even
more so as you move up in limits), and if you want
to win, you can’t afford to give anything less than
your utmost. This means having a clear head, staying
focused, and not letting emotions cloud judgment,
especially when losing.
 “Tilt,” as it’s called by professionals, or making suboptimal, emo-
tionally charged decisions after taking a bad beat, has been the ruin
of many technically competent players. While it’s completely normal
to feel temporary pain or frustration while losing, you can learn to not
let it affect your decision-making. In short, your actions should remain
detached from your emotions. That is the very process we'll focus on
in this chapter. | believe mastering the mental game is what helped
make the difference as | aimed to compete at the highest levels. Also,
we'll dive into poker psychology, including which factors influence
behavior and betting patterns, giving you a leg up on the competition.

Tilt Control and Overcoming Bad Beats

Taking a bad beat is the single most likely event that leads to poor
decision-making. The combined expectation and excitement you may
have of winning can be taken away in an instant, leaving you feeling
an array of painful emotions, from frustration to a lack of self-worth.
While you cannot control the frequency with which you take bad
beats, you can change how you react to them. The quicker you can
learn to let them go, the faster you’ll be able to focus on recovering
those hard-earned (or in this case, lost) chips. Here’s the process that
I’ve found works well in helping clients and students overcome bad |
beats at the poker table:

Understanding bad beats;

Reshaping your outlook;
Maintaining perspective;
and Focusing on the next hand.

Let’s look at each step in further detail.

1. Understanding Bad Beats

Bad beats are a part of poker and should be expected. Since
a bad beat is simply losing the pot when you are a signifi-
cant favorite to win, even losing with an over pair against a
flush draw would qualify. And this happens quite often. The
reason bad beats are often so hard to bear lies in your expec-
tations not being met. This stems from a fundamental lack of

144 The Poker Coach

understanding that being a favorite to win the hand (in this
case, 70 percent) does not entitle you to win the pot. In fact, it
means you will still lose 30 percent of the time. Having impos-
sible expectations sets you up for failure, as your mental state
may be neutral or only slightly positive when you win and often
devastated when you lose.
lf you want to not only keep your sanity but also thrive in
your decision-making process, reshape your expectations.
Being mentally prepared to lose, especially when ahead, helps
build the necessary resilience to handle the inevitable streaks
of bad luck. Lastly, be aware that humans are hardwired to be
negatively affected by bad luck more than they are positively
affected by good luck. We’re also naturally biased to remember
situations in which things didn’t go our way. Understanding
what’s called our “negativity bias” is an important step in being
more objective and less influenced by outcomes.

Reshaping One’s Outlook

If you’re going to begrudge your luck when the cards don’t

fall your way, you must also be grateful when you win. It’s
not enough to just know it; you must feel it, and this can only
happen if the feeling is genuine. I’ve found this approach
reduces the significance of bad beats when they inevita-
bly occur.
| challenge you to take this one step further and actually
become grateful for the bad beats as well. Hear me out. With-
out luck, poker as we know it would not exist. If the best hand
always won, poker would be like chess and people wouldn't
play for money, because inferior players would always lose.
Luck, or bad beats, is the price you pay for being a winning
player, and you must accept that as part of the game. Further-
more, without the opportunity to receive a bad beat, you're
never getting the money in with the best hand. Since all
winning players will be ahead most of the time, they’re more
likely to receive bad beats than anyone else. Therefore, feeling
like you’re mostly getting unlucky is simply the mark of a good
player. In that way, you should take pride in it.

Step 6: Mastering the Mental Game 145

 3. Maintaining Perspective

It’s easy to get swept away in the importance of winning, but it’s
necessary to maintain a healthy dose of perspective by remem-
bering that no matter what happens at the table, poker is just a
game. Indeed, when | get frustrated because | lose three coin
flips in a row, | remind myself that the mere fact I’m sitting at the
table means |’m one of the luckiest people in the world. The
math shows us that it’s quite easy to be on the wrong side of
luck when it actually matters. Remembering the harrowing fact
that the world lives on less than $5.50 per day helps me main-
tain the awareness of what it really means to take a bad beat,
making everything that happens at the table feel insignificant.
In life, we can’t control the hand we’re dealt. Having the
humility to accept that | could have easily “lost that coin flip”
and been forced to live on less than $5.50 per day allows me
to reflect on the truth that in the game of life, I’ve already won.
| was dealt a winner. That trumps all the possible misfortunes
poker can bestow upon me, as no loss can ever take that away.
While my opponent is raking in the pot, | count my blessings in
real time: | am healthy. | have a supportive family. | live in the
United States. The list goes on... In short, when | get in touch
with the reality that poker makes up but a tiny slice of the over-
all pie in my life, the sting of the bad beat softens.

Focusing on the Next Hand

When taking a bad beat in poker, it can seem like fate is beyond
your command, leaving you frustrated, helpless, and restless.
You may think, “If |play well, | lose anyway, so what’s the point?”
It’s easy to justify this thought when feeling like your actions
don’t produce the desired outcome. Restoring your focus to a
variable you can control is paramount, and I’ve found the best
way to do so is the following exercise.
In between one hand and another, | give myself a straight-
forward and direct command: “My goal is to play the next hand
the best way possible.” This simple statement empowers me to
channel all of my energy into achieving a result that is entirely
within my grasp. Even something as trivial as folding 94 offsuit

146 The Poker Coach

 under the gun feels like a small victory, because | accom-
plished my objective. Executing helps me regain the necessary
momentum to climb back after the loss, and | take comfort in
knowing that if | keep repeating this process, |’ll eventually
recover.
It’s not always feasible for everyone to overcome tilt during
their poker session. Some days, emotion simply gets the best
of us and we’re incapable of playing our best. That is okay, as
long as you’re aware of it. Simply quit and come back tomor-
row. There’s no sense in throwing good money after bad,
nor is there any shame in leaving. In fact, quite the opposite.
Removing yourself from an unprofitable situation is the sign of
a mature and disciplined player. It’s the gambler within us who
stays to compulsively chase his losses, and this is a vice that
has ruined many.

How to Deal with Downswings

Downswings, or losing for an extended period of time, can be

extremely frustrating. Downswings often take a mental toll and may
cause you to play worse in subsequent sessions, leading to a domino
effect. Simply taking a break until you feel mentally ready to play is
a great place to start. That being said, there is a perspective I’d like
to impart that has helped me and clients alike handle the inevitable
swings of the poker table.
In January of last year, | absolutely crushed it and was a huge
winner on the month. February, on the other hand, didn’t start off so
well, and in the first week, | lost half of what | won in January. If you
asked me how | was doing in poker after that first week of February,
| would have replied, “I’ve been losing lately,” when in fact, | was still
a winner on the year. The mere fact that | had mentally separated
my results in January from February led me to feel like |was ona
downswing when in fact, | was still a big winner. That’s wild, right?
You see, buying into the idea of downswings is all about perspective.
What constitutes one anyway? A few sessions? A month? Six months
or more?
The way we measure swings in poker is arbitrary and inconsis-
tent. These time windows are fabricated to measure noise in the

Step 6: Mastering the Mental Game 147

short-term, and worse, they often change depending on circum-
stance. Sometimes we're on a downswing because we lost for a few
months, while others it’s because of a few sittings. Professionals
believe their life to be one long poker session, and anything that
happens over the next month is but a hiccup on their journeys. In this
way, there really are no downswings or upswings. Do your best to
take a long-term perspective. Remember, it’s reducing the window in
which we measure results that may make you feel like you’re losing
when in fact, if you stretch out the time horizon, you’re more likely to
see that you're a long-term winning player. The only thing left to do is
to go play like one.

Poker Psychology

| mentioned before that your goal isn’t to think on the highest level
but rather one level higher than your opponent. This means you'll
have to carefully observe how everyone is playing to understand how
they think about the game (which is often a reflection of their world-
view and current emotional state) and then do your best to interpret
how that will influence their decisions. Doing this successfully is an
art that requires practice, but observing your opponent when you sit
down at the table is helpful. What specifics about them give you clues
about how they may play their cards? Being aware of unique variables
will help you more accurately survey people in the future.
While this may be an impolite thing to do in the real world, in a
game where everyone is trying to mask their emotions and conceal
their intentions, it’s a necessary practice. You'll need to remain cog-
nizant about the ways in which game flow impacts your opponents’
decisions. The following are the six most common scenarios I’ve
found that influence behavior.

LOSING AN ALL-IN

When a player gets stacked or loses all of their chips, this will often
change how they play. Depending on the level of emotional control
they have, you are likely to find them playing looser, mostly in the
form of playing too many hands preflop. Some players will inappro-
priately call raises with marginal hands or “gamble” in spots postflop

148 The Poker Coach

where they should fold. They will get stubborn and look you up on the
river. Don’t bluff them.
Better players will act the same, often unaffected by the loss. Few,
however, will play tighter after losing, as their emotional desire is to
win back the money as quickly as possible and the only way to do so
is playing additional hands.

GETTING CAUGHT BLUFFING

While many people believe that someone getting caught bluffing |

will play looser, | find the opposite to be true. Assuming the player is
aware of their image (some aren't), they will interpret their exposed
bluff to mean their future bets will receive less respect. The most
common response is to shrivel up, play tighter, and adopt an ABC
approach, betting when they have strong hands and folding when
they do not.
| believe people typically over-attribute tilt to others, assuming
they’re playing badly because they lost a pot, when in fact it typically
requires significant and repetitive losses or bad beats to throw some-
one off their game. The more experience you have, the less prone
you are to be deeply affected by swings. Use good judgment and be
observant to determine who is influenced by wins and losses.

BEING A BIG WINNER

When someone is winning heaps (especially after doubling up),

they’re almost surely going to play tighter, as they don’t want to lose
their winnings, are mentally content, and feel no urgency to gamble.
Therefore, they’re far less likely to bluff, get out of line, or be unnec-
essarily aggressive with a marginal holding. Instead, they’ll sit back
and wait for big hands. Of course, not everyone fits the rule. Some
players suffer from “winners tilt,” the overconfidence and sense of
invincibility that comes with winning, and will attempt to bully the
table. | believe these people to be the exception, however, and they
are usually easy to profile.

Step 6: Mastering the Mental Game 149

ABOUT TO QUIT

When someone is about to quit a game, in particular when winning,

they almost always play tightly. Few want to risk getting buried or
undoing a hard day’s work by gambling unnecessarily, especially
when they know they won’t have the opportunity to make that money
back. If you see someone racking up, announcing that it’s their last
round, or visibly getting ready to leave, proceed with caution when
playing against them. More often than not, they have the goods. This
is perhaps truest when someone is taking their chips out of the rack
to enter a pot.

GETTING UNSTUCK

If a player recovers from a big loss, they’ll usually play a lot more
tightly. Despite being even or perhaps a small winner on the session,
the mental satisfaction of getting unstuck can be greater than winning
outright, as the pain of losing is more significant than the joy of win-
ning. Therefore, they’re likely to play in a more straightforward way,
bluff less frequently, and have a strong hand and be betting for value
when they make big bets.

WHILE EATING OR DISTRACTED

When someone’s food arrives at the poker table, their focus may shift
to their meal, causing their decisions to become quite automatic. They
usually pay far less attention to the game and aren’t looking for oppor-
tunities to take advantage of weakness but rather play their cards at
face value. When they do enter a pot, especially with an aggressive
move like a three- or four-bet, it is almost always.a sign of strength.
The same theory applies for any time in which someone is occupied.
Being on a call, checking email, or watching a YouTube video on their
iPad will result in similar behavior. In short, if someone stops what they
are doing to enter a hand, they likely have a strong holding.
The above guidelines come from the empirical data I’ve observed
throughout the years. There are always exceptions, and your job is
to stay focused and watch your opponents closely to know when to

150 The Poker Coach

deviate from what’s expected. Have the courage to trust your reads.
They’re usually correct.
Poker is continually changing and evolving. To stay ahead of the
curve, you will need to as well. My hope for you is that grasping the
solid fundamentals you learned in the Core Concepts and Preflop
sections, coupled with the poker math that you learned in the Mas-
tering Poker Math section, will serve as a solid foundation. Then, by
excelling in the art of hand reading, reading your opponents, sizing
your bets, and timing your bluffs, you'll have the tactical skills you
need to create a poker career filled with monster pots, a lifetime of
learning, and lots ofjoy.

Step 6: Mastering the Mental Game 151

RESOURCES

Books
There’s a sea of poker books, and I’m hesitant to recommend any in
particular because so much depends on where you are in your devel-
opment and which learning style best suits you. That being said, there
are two I'd like to highlight here.
The first is Elements of Poker by Tommy Angelo. This is my
personal favorite book on the mental game. Angelo’s almost philo-
sophical approach toward poker helped shape the way | think about
things like downswings, variance, and mistakes. Second, I’ve created
an e-book to help you master the art of hand reading and further
implement the four-step process | briefly touched upon in this book.
It is called The Four Steps to Beating Anyone at Poker.
This e-book expands upon my decision-making process, focusing
on the big-picture concepts that are applicable to your own game.
However, what is most valuable about this e-book is that it’s interac-
tive, with exercises to help you implement what you’ve learned.
If you’d like access to the exact system | use to make decisions,
check out this product by visiting ConsciousPoker.com and
clicking “Products.”

Content
There are many great content creators in today’s poker environment,
from YouTubers to bloggers. Some focus on strategy, while others
lean more toward entertainment. On my Conscious Poker YouTube
Channel, you’ll find a mixture of both. In the #HandoftheDay series,
| break down famous poker hands from around the world, including
ones I’ve played in high-stakes cash games and tournaments as well
as hands sent to me from readers and viewers. During these short,
informative episodes, | walk you through my step-by-step thought
process for each round of betting. In the #AskAlec series, | take
questions sent to me from readers and viewers, and answer them in

152
quick videos. | also have various poker viogs where | travel to events
and show you the behind-the-scenes life of a poker player. Finally,
if you’re looking for an online poker community, or a great strategy,
mindset, and lifestyle resource to up your game, please visit
ConsciousPoker.com.

Apps
POKER HH KEYBOARD: If you’re looking for a designated poker keyboard
to make recording hands more efficient, which includes keys for suits, posi-
tions, cards, and more, check out this free app.

BRAVO POKER LIVE: This free app allows you to monitor what’s running
at your local casino in real time so you never miss a juicy game!

POKER INCOME: This must-have app allows you to record your wins
and losses, and holds you accountable to them. It also helps you track
important metrics such as ROI and hourly rate so that you can monitor your
progress over time.

POKERCRUNCHER: The gold standard of poker calculators, this handy

app allows you to calculate your equity on the go.

SHAREMYPAIR: I’m proud to be sponsored by ShareMyPair, along with

other well-known poker pros like Phil Hellmuth. This social app allows you
to easily input hands into a visual re-player and share them with friends or
on your social media. It’s a great way to get feedback from others, too.

PREFLOP+#: This new poker app is particularly great for tournament poker
and getting familiar with short-stack play. It gives you the correct GTO
solution for every preflop play with stack sizes up to 30BB, including which
hands to open with or re-raise with when facing a raise.

Resources 153
GLOSSARY

Ante: A forced amount of money put into the pot by each player
before the cards are dealt. Sometimes, the big blind will ante for the
entire table, also known as “big blind ante.”

Bet: A wager of any size made at the poker table.

Blinds: The forced ante put in by the two players to the left of the
dealer, the small blind and big blind, respectively.

Bluff: A bet made with a hand that is highly improbable to be the best
holding, either to win the pot or disguise your betting patterns.

Call: To match the current bet.

Check: Opting not to bet.

Check-Raise: Checking and then raising after your opponent bets.

Flop: The three communal cards dealt after the initial round
of betting.

Fold: To discard one’s holding and forfeit the pot.

Hand: A set of five cards played according to the rules of Texas

Hold’em. Also, “hand” often refers to hole cards, the two cards dealt
facedown before the betting begins.

In Position: When you are last to act during the rounds of betting.

No Limit: A poker game where any player can wager any amount at
any time.

Opening: The initial round of betting in Texas Hold’em. Also, to

“open” means to raise when you are the first to enter the pot preflop.

154
Out of Position: When you are first to act during the rounds
of betting.

Outs: Unseen cards that can be dealt to improve your holding.

Pot: The total amount of money wagered by all players during a

single betting round, which is won by whoever has the best hand
or succeeds in getting everyone else to fold.

Preflop: The initial round of betting before the flop is dealt.

Raise: To at least double the size of the previous bet in the current
betting round, typically when you have a strong holding.

Re-Raise: A second increase in the bet size made after someone

raises the original bet. Therefore, the betting order is bet, raise,
and re-raise.

River: The last communal card to be dealt in No Limit Hold’em before

the cards are shown.

Semi-Bluff: A bet made with an inferior holding but that has a high
probability of improving to a strong one on a later street.

Glossary 155
 INDEX
A E
Allin bets, 18 Early position, 36-37
Antes, 16 Equity, 32, 58-61
Expected value (EV), 136-137
B Exploitative play approach, 80-81
Bad beats, 144-147
fF
Balance approach, 3
Bankroll, creating, 27-31 Flop, 17
BB/100 metric, 19 Folding, 3
Behavioral influences, 148-151 FOUR-Step Process, 107-112
Betting, 18 Four-two rule, 54—57
bluffing, 3, 16, 116-119
calculating expected value (EV), 136-137 G
dry board sizing, 127-132 Game selection, 45
optimal frequency, 135 Game theory optimal (GTO) approach, 81
optimal sizing, 126-127 Gladwell, Malcolm, 4
range advantages and leverage, 123-126 Goal-setting, 13-15
range balancing, 138-141
value, 3, 16-122 H
wet board sizing, 133-135 Hand Range Funnel, 47, 95-102

Blinds, 16, 37, 86 Hands. See also Ranges

Blockers, 104 air, 42-43, 116

Bluffing, 3, 43, 116-119 bluffs, 43, 116

Burn cards, 17 checks and calls, 44

Buttons, 16 value, 44-45, 116

Buy-in, 21 writing out, 37-40

Hero, 38, 41-42
Cc Hole cards, 16
Calling, 3 “Hollywooding,” 24
Calling stations, 122
Cards, 49 I
Cash games Image, 72-77

creating a bankroll for, 27-31 Implied odds, 62-63

preflop raise sizing, 87
variance in, 24—27
L
Late position, 36-37
Checking, 3, 120
Check-raising, 95 Limping, 17, 84, 87

Chips, 18 Luck, 32-33

Counting combos, 102—107

M
D Middle position, 36-37

Dealing, 16
N
Defending, 86
Negativity bias, 145
Downswings, 147-148
Negreanu, Daniel, 71
Drawing dead, 110
North Star, 13
Nuts, 3

156
O Ranges, 46-48, 95-96
Opponents advantages and leverage, 123-126
adjustments by, 74-77 balancing, 138-141
common tells, 70-72 chart, 38-39
exploitative play approach to, 80-81 depolarized, 92-94
profiling by, 73 Hand Range Funnel, 47, 95-102
polarized, 90-92
Pp
Record keeping, 19-20
Patience, 66 Reverse implied odds, 63-65
Players River, 17
assessment quiz, 6-12 ROI (return on investment), 21
types of, 5
Playing cards, 49 S
Poker, 2-4 Showdown, 17
Poker math Slow playing, 95
equity, 54-61 Stack size, 18
four-two rule, 54-57 Stereotypes, 70, 78-79
implied odds, 62-63 Stop loss, 31
pot odds, 51-53 Street, 3
probability, 50-51 Suits, abbreviations, 37-38
reverse implied odds, 63-65 Swings, 20
Position, 16, 36 18
and postflop strategy, 40-42
and preflop play, 37-40 Table stakes, 18
Postflop strategy, 95 Tells, 70-72
counting combos, 102-107 Texas Hold’em, 16-18
FOUR-Step Process, 107-112 Three-betting
hand reading, 95-102 depolarized, 92-94

position and, 40-42 polarized, 90-92

Pot odds, 51-53, 58-60 Tilt, 144

Preflop play, 17, 84 Tournament poker

big blind play, 86 creating a bankroll for, 27-31

cash games raise sizing, 88 preflop raise sizing, 89

charts, 85 variance in, 21-24

limping, 87 Turns, 17
position and, 37-40
re-raising, 90-94
U
Under the gun (UTG), 16
tournament raise sizing, 89
Probability, 32, 50-51
V
Progress-tracking, 19-20
Value betting, 3, 116-122
Psychology, 148-151
Variance, 20, 32-33
cash games, 24-27
R
tournament poker, 21-24
Raising, 3
Villain, 38
Rake, 2

Index 157
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
To my parents, who supported me every step of the way, and their
trust that my seemingly crazy decision to drop out of college and
pursue my dream of traveling the world to play poker professionally
would work out in the end.
| could never have had this career without my incredible wife,
Ambra, who has been with me through it all. From adventuring with
me around the world in search of new games to quitting her job as a
university professor to create an online business together; and from
patiently filming my original YouTube videos with an iPhone to picking :
me back up after those devastating losses, | owe much of my suc- :
cess to you.
To my fans, for your continual support and positive energy. Reading
your messages and comments inspires me to keep producing content
and gives meaning to my work.
To the amazing team at Rockridge Press who took this project to
the next level.
Finally, I'd like to thank luck, and whoever, if anyone, presides over
where it shines, for both on and off the felt, I’ve had more than my
fair share.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
~ Winning more than $1.5 million in tournaments and millions more in
_ live and online cash games, Alec Torelli is one of the most respected
_ poker players in the industry today. During his 15-year career, Alec
has traveled to more than 45 countries and been featured on ESPN,
_ CBS Sports, Travel Channel, Fox Sports, Cigar Aficionado, Poker
_ News, and many more.
Compelled by his passion to share the lessons he has learned and
- help others on their poker journeys, Alec has coached players from
_ all over the world. In 2017, he founded ConsciousPoker.com, a training
"site dedicated to transforming good players into great ones.
Today, Alec still plays poker but balances it out with coaching,
running his online business, and sharing the lessons learned from
_ the game that apply to life and business. Through his blogs, videos,
and keynote speeches, Alec tackles subjects such as the role of luck
_in life, evaluating risk, maintaining a positive mindset, strengthening
~ mental fortitude, handling adversity and setbacks, managing your
bankroll, and cultivating self-awareness.
Alec and his wife, Ambra, split their time among their homes in
Las Vegas, Los Angeles, New York City, and Italy.

To contact Alec directly for inquires, coaching,

. or speaking, please visit www.alectorelli,com or
| connect with him on social media (Instagram,
| Twitter, Facebook, or LinkedIn) at @AlecTorelli.
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Are you ready to go all-in on learning to play poker like a champ? The Poker
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and start growing their bankroll.

Whether it’s developing essential strategies for managing odds, reading tells,
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gives you everything you need to take your game to the next level. Each
chapter dives deep into a different aspect of poker, like opening bets or
poker psychology, helping you analyze your style of play as well as offering
expert recommendations for developing your strengths at the table.

MANAGE YOUR BANK—Learn how to stay financially

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PRACTICAL GAMEPLAY TIPS—Shore up your weakness-

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every hand.

FINAL EXAMS—Show that you’re ready for the top tables

by passing tests that allow you to demonstrate that you’ve
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ALEC TORELLI is one of the most respected

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er $1.5 million in tournaments and millions more ISBN 978-1-64611-500-
in live and online cash games. Alec has been 2 Oa? ’ -
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Los Angeles, New York City, and Italy. WWW.ROCKRIDGEPRESS.COM