CHAPTER 5
Understanding Risk
Understanding Risk
Defining Risk
Risk is a measure of uncertainty about the
possible future pay offs of an investment. It is
measured over some time horizon, relative to a
benchmark.
•Risk is a measure that can be quantified.
Uncertainties that are not quantifiable cannot be
priced.
Understanding Risk
• Risk arises from uncertainty about the future.
• Risk has to do with the future payoff of an investment,
which is unknown. Imagining all the possible payoffs
and the likelihood of each one is a difficult but
indispensable part of computing risk.
•
• The definition of risk refers to an investment or group of
investments.
•
• Risk must be measured over some time horizon. In
most cases the risk of holding an investment over a
short period of time is smaller than holding it over a
long one.
•
• Risk must be measured relative to a benchmark rather
than in isolation.
Understanding Risk
Measuring Risk
Measuring risk is crucial to understanding
the financial system.
Possibilities, Probabilities, and Expected
Value
• To study random future events, start by listing all
the possibilities and assign a probability to each.
Be sure the probabilities add to one.
•
• Probability is a measure of the likelihood that an
event will occur. It’s always expressed as a
number between zero and one.
Understanding Risk
A simple example: All possible Outcomes of a single Coin Toss
In constructing a table like this one, we must be
careful to list all possible outcomes. One important
property of probabilities is that one or the other
event will happen. If the table is constructed
correctly, then, the values in the probabilities
column will sum to one
Understanding Risk
•The expected value is the probability-weighted
sum of all possible future outcomes.
Understanding Risk
Measures of Risk
•A risk-free asset is an investment whose future value, or
payoff, is known with certainty.
•
••
•Risk increases when the spread (or range) of possible
outcomes widens but the expected value stays the same.
•
Understanding Risk
•
•Variance and standard Deviation:
One measure of risk is the standard deviation of
the possible payoffs.
It takes several steps to compute the variance
of an investment.
-Compute the expected value: 1/2 ($1,400)+1/2 ($700) = $1,050
-Subtract the expected value from each of the possible payoffs:
$1,400 - $1,050 = +$350
$700 - $1,050 = -$350
-Square each of the results: $350 = 122,500(dollars)2 and (-$350) 2 =
122,500(dollars) 2
-Multiply each result times its probability and add up the results:
1/2[122,500(dollars) 2 ]+ ½[122,500(dollars) 2 ]
2
Understanding Risk
Writing this procedure more compactly, we get
Variance = ½($1,400 - $1,050) 2 + ½($700 - $1,050) = 122,500(dollars) 2
The Standard deviation is the (positive) square root
of the variance or:
Standard deviation = √Variance = √122,500 dollars2 = $350
Understanding Risk
•
•Value at Risk
A second measure of risk is value at risk, the
worst possible loss over a specific time horizon,
at a given probability.
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-
Understanding Risk
Risk Aversion, the Risk Premium,
and the Risk-Return Trade-off
A Risk Averse Investor
• Always prefers a certain return to an uncertain one
with the same expected return.
•
• Requires compensation in the form of a risk
premium in order to take risk.
•
• Trades off between risk and expected return: the
higher the expected return risk-averse investors
will require for holding an investment.
Understanding Risk
The trade-off between Risk and Expected Return
Understanding Risk
Sources Of Risk
• Idiosyncratic Risk:
it’s specific to a
particular
business or
circumstance.
• Systematic Risk: it’s
common to
everyone
Understanding Risk
Reducing Risk through Diversification
There are two types of diversification:
• Hedging: in which investors reduce
idiosyncratic risk by making investments with
offsetting payoff patterns.
•
• Spreading: in which investors reduce
idiosyncratic risk by making investments with
independent payoff patterns.
