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Urban Planning: Population Forecasting

This document discusses different methods for forecasting population changes, which are important for designing water supply and sanitation systems. It describes five common methods: the arithmetical method assumes a constant growth rate; the geometrical method follows a geometric series with constant growth over time; the incremental increase method uses average past increases; the annual rate of increase method predicts based on a single year's growth rate; and the changing rate of increase method allows the growth rate to change over time. Accurately projecting population is crucial to avoid building infrastructure that is either inadequate or overly costly.

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Rhyan Park
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455 views11 pages

Urban Planning: Population Forecasting

This document discusses different methods for forecasting population changes, which are important for designing water supply and sanitation systems. It describes five common methods: the arithmetical method assumes a constant growth rate; the geometrical method follows a geometric series with constant growth over time; the incremental increase method uses average past increases; the annual rate of increase method predicts based on a single year's growth rate; and the changing rate of increase method allows the growth rate to change over time. Accurately projecting population is crucial to avoid building infrastructure that is either inadequate or overly costly.

Uploaded by

Rhyan Park
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

Different Methods of

Forecasting Population

Population Forecasting
Design of water supply and sanitation
scheme is based on the projected
population
of
a
particular
city,
estimated for the design period. Any
underestimated value will make system
inadequate for the purpose intended;
similarly overestimated value will make
it costly.

Factors affecting changes in population are:

Increase due to births


Decrease due to deaths
Increase/ decrease due to
migration
Increase due to annexation
Development of new industries
Natural disasters
Educational facilities
Increase in transport facilities
Political changes in adjoining

Methods of forecasting
population
Arithmetical Method
In this method we assume that growth
rate for certain duration of time
remains constant i.e. if annual
increment in rate is 20% in 1960 it
will remain 20% in 1980 as well.

Geometrical Method
In this method the growth is assumed to
follow geometric series. Growth is
assumed to be constant for a specific
period of time. Thus, population at the
end of n years is given as;
Pn= P (1+i/100)nwhere
i = per year percentage rate of increase.

Incremental Increase Method


Incremental increase method is similar to
Arithmetic Progression method with the
difference that we found out the
average in the increase of population
and that average is added into the net
increment of population.
Pn = P+ n*X + {n (n+1)/2}*Y
Where, Pn = Population after nth decade
X = Average increase
Y = Incremental increase

Annual Rate of Increase Method


In this method, the rate of increase for one
year is first determined and then
population is predicted from there.
Pn = P (1+ i)^n
Where: Pn = population at the end of n
years
P = population at any time
i = annual rate of increase of population

Changing Rate of Increase Method


This method is similar to Geometric
Progression
method
except
that
a
changing rather than a constant rate of
increase is assumed.

Graphical Method
In this method, the populations of last
few decades are correctly plotted to a
suitable scale on graph

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