Decision Trees and Boosting

Helge Voss (MPI–K, Heidelberg)

TMVA Workshop , CERN, 21 Jan 2011
 Boosted Decision Trees
 Decision Tree: Sequential application of cuts splits
the data into nodes, where the final nodes (leafs)
classify an event as signal or background

Helge Voss TMVA-Workshop, CERN, 21. January 2011 ― Decision Trees and Boosting 2
 Boosted Decision Trees
 Decision Tree: Sequential application of cuts splits
the data into nodes, where the final nodes (leafs)
classify an event as signal or background
 used since a long time in general “data-mining”
applications, less known in (High Energy)
Physics
 similar to “simple Cuts”: each leaf node is a
set of cuts.  many boxes in phase space
attributed either to signal or backgr.
 independent of monotonous variable
transformations, immune against outliers
 weak variables are ignored (and don’t
(much) deteriorate performance)
 Disadvantage  very sensitive to statistical
fluctuations in training data

 Boosted Decision Trees (1996):

combine a whole forest of Decision Trees,
derived from the same sample, e.g. using
 became popular in HEP since
different event weights. MiniBooNE, [Link] et.a., NIM 543(2005)
 overcomes the stability problem
Helge Voss TMVA-Workshop, CERN, 21. January 2011 ― Decision Trees and Boosting 3
 Growing a Decision Tree
 start with training sample at the root node

 split training sample at node into two, using a cut

in the variable that gives best separation gain

 continue splitting until:

 minimal #events per node
 maximum number of nodes
 maximum depth specified
 a split doesn’t give a minimum separation gain
 leaf-nodes classify S,B according to the
majority of events or give a S/B probability

 Why no multiple branches (splits) per node ?

 Fragments data too quickly; also: multiple splits per node = series of binary node splits

 What about multivariate splits?

 time consuming
 other methods more adapted for such correlations
 we’ll see later that for “boosted” DTs weak (dull) classifiers are often better, anyway
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 Separation Gain

 What do we mean by “best separation gain”?

 define a measure on how mixed S and B are in a node:
 MisClassification:
1-max(p,1-p)
 Gini-index: (Corrado Gini 1912, typically used to measure income inequality)

p (1-p) : p=purity
 Cross Entropy:
-(plnp + (1-p)ln(1-p))

cross entropy
 difference in the various indices are small, Gini index
most commonly used: Gini-index misidentification

purity

separation gain: e.g. NParent*GiniParent – Nleft*GiniLeftNode – Nright*GiniRightNode

 Consider all variables and all possible cut values

 select variable and cut that maximises the separation gain.
Helge Voss TMVA-Workshop, CERN, 21. January 2011 ― Decision Trees and Boosting 5
 Separation Gain
MisClassificationError  sort of the classical way to choose cut
BUT:

cumulative-
distributions

There are cases where the simple “misclassificaton” does not have any optimium at all!
other S=400,B=400  (S=300,B=100) (S=100,B=300) or (S=200,B=0) (S=200,B=400)
example:
 equal in terms of misclassification error, but GiniIndex/Entropy favour the latter
Helge Voss TMVA-Workshop, CERN, 21. January 2011 ― Decision Trees and Boosting 6
 Decision Tree Pruning
 One can continue node splitting until all leaf nodes
are basically pure (using the training sample)
obviously: that’s overtraining

 Two possibilities:
 stop growing earlier
generally not a good idea, even useless
splits might open up subsequent useful splits
 grow tree to the end and “cut back”, nodes
that seem statistically dominated:
 pruning

 e.g. Cost Complexity pruning: C(T, )    | y(x)  y(C) |   Nleaf nodes

 assign to every sub-tree, T C(T,) : leafs events
of T in leaf

 find subtree T with minmal C(T,) for given 

Loss function regularisaion/
 use subsequent weakest link pruning
cost parameter
 which cost parameter  ?
large enough to avoid overtraining
tuning parameter or “cross validation” (still to come in TMVA hopefully soon…)
Helge Voss TMVA-Workshop, CERN, 21. January 2011 ― Decision Trees and Boosting 7
 Decision Tree Pruning
 “Real life” example of an optimally pruned Decision Tree:

Decision tree
Decision tree before pruning after pruning

 Pruning algorithms are developed and applied on individual trees

 optimally pruned single trees are not necessarily optimal in a forest !
 actually they tend to be TOO big when boosted, no matter how hard you
prune!

Helge Voss TMVA-Workshop, CERN, 21. January 2011 ― Decision Trees and Boosting 8
 Boosting

classifier
Training Sample C(0)(x)
re-weight
Weighted classifier
Sample C(1)(x)
re-weight
Weighted classifier
Sample C(2)(x)
NClassifier
re-weight
Weighted classifier
y(x)   i
w iC(i) (x)
Sample C(3)(x)
re-weight

Weighted classifier
Sample C(m)(x)

Helge Voss TMVA-Workshop, CERN, 21. January 2011 ― Decision Trees and Boosting 9
 Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost)

classifier  AdaBoost re-weights events

Training Sample C(0)(x) misclassified by previous classifier by:
re-weight
classifier
1  ferr
Weighted with :
Sample C(1)(x) ferr
re-weight
misclassified events
Weighted classifier ferr 
Sample C(2)(x) all events
re-weight
Weighted classifier  AdaBoost weights the classifiers also
Sample C(3)(x) using the error rate of the individual
classifier according to:
re-weight

NClassifier
 1  ferr
(i)
 (i)
y(x)   log  (i) C (x)
classifier
i  ferr 
Weighted
Sample C(m)(x)

Helge Voss TMVA-Workshop, CERN, 21. January 2011 ― Decision Trees and Boosting 10
 Boosted Decision Trees
 Result of ONE Decision Tree for test event is either “Signal” or “Background”
 the tree gives a fixed signal eff. and background rejection

 For a whole Forest however:

y(B)  0
y(S)  1

Helge Voss TMVA-Workshop, CERN, 21. January 2011 ― Decision Trees and Boosting 11
 AdaBoost in Pictures

Start here: misclassified events get

… and so on
equal event weights larger weights

Helge Voss TMVA-Workshop, CERN, 21. January 2011 ― Decision Trees and Boosting 12
 Boosted Decision Trees – Control Plots

A very well behaved

example’

Helge Voss TMVA-Workshop, CERN, 21. January 2011 ― Decision Trees and Boosting 13
 Boosted Decision Trees – Control Plots

A more “difficult” example

Helge Voss TMVA-Workshop, CERN, 21. January 2011 ― Decision Trees and Boosting 14
 AdaBoost: A simple demonstration

The example: (somewhat artificial…but nice for demonstration) :

• Data file with three “bumps” var(i) > x var(i) <= x
• Weak classifier (i.e. one single simple “cut” ↔ decision tree stumps )
B S

b) a)

Two reasonable cuts: a) Var0 > 0.5  εsignal=66% εbkg ≈ 0% misclassified events in total 16.5%
or
b) Var0 < -0.5  εsignal=33% εbkg ≈ 0% misclassified events in total 33%

the training of a single decision tree stump will find “cut a)”

Helge Voss TMVA-Workshop, CERN, 21. January 2011 ― Decision Trees and Boosting 15
 AdaBoost: A simple demonstration
The first “tree”, choosing cut a) will give an error fraction: err = 0.165
 before building the next “tree”: weight wrong classified training events by ( 1-err/err) ) ≈ 5
 the next “tree” sees essentially the following data sample:

re-weight .. and hence will

chose: “cut b)”:
b) Var0 < -0.5

The combined classifier: Tree1 + Tree2

the (weighted) average of the response to
a test event from both trees is able to
separate signal from background as
good as one would expect from the most
powerful classifier

Helge Voss TMVA-Workshop, CERN, 21. January 2011 ― Decision Trees and Boosting 16
 AdaBoost: A simple demonstration
Only 1 tree “stump” Only 2 tree “stumps” with AdaBoost

Helge Voss TMVA-Workshop, CERN, 21. January 2011 ― Decision Trees and Boosting 17
 “A Statistical View of Boosting” (Friedman 1998 [Link])

Boosted Decision Trees: two different interpretations

give events that are “difficult to categorize” more weight and average afterwards the
results of all classifiers that were obtained with different weights
see each Tree as a “basis function” of a possible classifier 
• boosting or bagging is just a mean to generate a set of “basis functions”
• linear combination of basis functions gives final classifier or: final classifier is an
expansion in the basis functions. 
y( , x)    T (x)
tree
i i

• every “boosting” algorithm can be interpreted as optimising the loss function in a

“greedy stagewise” manner
•i.e. from the current point in the optimisation – [Link] of the decision tree
forest- :
• chooses the parameters for the next boost step (weights) such that one
moves a long the steepest gradient of the loss function

• AdaBoost: “exponential loss function” = exp( -y0y(α,x)) where y0=-1 (bkg), y0=1 (signal)

Helge Voss TMVA-Workshop, CERN, 21. January 2011 ― Decision Trees and Boosting 18
 Gradient Boost

 Gradient Boost is a way to implement “boosting” with arbitrary “loss functions” by

approximating “somehow” the gradient of the loss function

 AdaBoost: Exponential loss exp( -y0y(α,x))  theoretically sensitive to outliers

 Binomial log-likelihood loss ln(1 + exp( -2y0y(α,x))  more well behaved loss function,
(the corresponding “GradientBoost” is implmented in TMVA)

Helge Voss TMVA-Workshop, CERN, 21. January 2011 ― Decision Trees and Boosting 19
 Bagging and Randomised Trees

other classifier combinations:

 Bagging:
 combine trees grown from “bootstrap” samples
(i.e re-sample training data with replacement)

 Randomised Trees: (Random Forest: trademark [Link], [Link])

 combine trees grown with:
 random bootstrap (or subsets) of the training data only
 consider at each node only a random subsets of variables for the split
 NO Pruning!

 These combined classifiers work surprisingly well, are very stable and
almost perfect “out of the box” classifiers

Helge Voss TMVA-Workshop, CERN, 21. January 2011 ― Decision Trees and Boosting 20
 AdaBoost vs Bagging and Randomised Forests
Sometimes people present “boosting” as nothing else then just “smearing” in order to make
the Decision Trees more stable w.r.t statistical fluctuations in the training.

clever “boosting” however can do more, than for example: for previous example of “three
bumps”

- Random Forests
- Bagging

as in this case, pure statistical fluctuations are

not enough to enhance the 2nd peak sufficiently

however: a “fully grown decision tree” is

much more than a “weak classifier”
_AdaBoost
 “stabilization” aspect is more important

Surprisingly: Often using smaller trees (weaker classifiers) in AdaBoost and other clever boosting
algorithms (i.e. gradient boost) seems to give overall significantly better performance !

Helge Voss TMVA-Workshop, CERN, 21. January 2011 ― Decision Trees and Boosting 21
 Boosting at Work

 Boosting seems to work best on “weak” classifiers (i.e. small, dum trees)
 Tuning (tree building) parameter settings are important
 For good out of the box performance: Large numbers of very small trees
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 Generalised Classifier Boosting
Principle (just as in BDT): multiple training cycles, each time wrongly
classified events get a higher event weight

classifier
Training Sample C(0)(x)
re-weight
Weighted classifier
Sample C(1)(x)
re-weight
NClassifier
 1  ferr
(i)
 (i)
Weighted classifier
y(x)   log  (i) C (x)
Sample C(2)(x)
i  ferr 
re-weight

Response is weighted sum

of each classifier response
Weighted classifier
Sample C(m)(x)

Boosting might be interesting especially for simple (weak) Methods like Cuts, Linear
Discriminants, simple (small, few nodes) MLPs
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 AdaBoost On a linear Classifier (e.g. Fisher)

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 AdaBoost On a linear Classifier (e.g. Fisher)

 Ups… there’s still a problem in TMVA’s generalized boosting. This example doesn’t work yet !
Helge Voss TMVA-Workshop, CERN, 21. January 2011 ― Decision Trees and Boosting 25
 Boosting a Fisher Discriminant in TMVA…
 100 Boosts of a “Fisher Discriminant”
 as Multivariate Tree split (yes.. it is in TMVA
although I argued against it earlier. I hoped to
cope better with linear correlations that way…)
 generalised boosting of Fisher classifier

Something isn’t quite correct yet !

1st Fisher cut 2nd Fisher cut 65th Fisher cut

Helge Voss TMVA-Workshop, CERN, 21. January 2011 ― Decision Trees and Boosting 26
 Learning with Rule Ensembles
 Following RuleFit approach by Friedman-Popescu Friedman-Popescu, Tech Rep,
Stat. Dpt, Stanford U., 2003

 Model is linear combination of rules, where a rule is a sequence of cuts (i.e. a

branch of a decision tree)
RuleFit classifier rules (cut sequence normalised
 rm=1 if all cuts discriminating
satisfied, =0 otherwise) event variables

 
 MR  nR
y RF  x   a0   am rm xˆ   bk xˆk
m 1 k 1

Sum of rules Linear Fisher term

 The problem to solve is

 Create rule ensemble: use forest of decision trees
 pruning removes topologically equal rules (same variables in cut sequence)
 Add a “Fisher term” to capture linear correlations
 Fit coefficients am, bk: gradient direct regularization minimising Risk (Friedman et al.)
One of the elementary cellular automaton rules (Wolfram 1983, 2002). It specifies the next color in a cell, depending
on its color and its immediate neighbors. Its rule outcomes are encoded in the binary representation 30=000111102.

Helge Voss TMVA-Workshop, CERN, 21. January 2011 ― Decision Trees and Boosting 27
 Regression Trees

 Rather than calling leafs Signal or Background

could also give them “values” (i.e. “mean value” of all values attributed to
training events that end up in the node)
Regression Tree

 Node Splitting: Separation Gain  Gain in Variance (RMS) of target function

 Boosting: error fraction  “distance” measure from the mean

linear, square or exponential

 Use this to model ANY non analytic function of which you have “training data”
i.e.
 energy in your calorimeter as function of show parameters
 training data from testbeam

Helge Voss TMVA-Workshop, CERN, 21. January 2011 ― Decision Trees and Boosting 28
 Regression Trees

 Leaf Nodes:
One output value
ZOOM
Regression Trees seem to need DESPITE BOOSTING larger trees

Helge Voss TMVA-Workshop, CERN, 21. January 2011 ― Decision Trees and Boosting 29
 Summary

Boosted Decision Trees  a “brute force method” works “out of the

box”
check tuning parameters anyway.
start with “small trees” (limit the maximum number of splits (tree depth)
automatic tuning parameter optimisation
first implementation is done, obviously needs LOTs of time!

be as careful as with “cuts” and check against data

Boosting can (in principle) be applied to any (weak) classifier

Boosted Regression Trees  at least as much “brute force”

little experience with yet.. but probably equally robust and powerful

Helge Voss TMVA-Workshop, CERN, 21. January 2011 ― Decision Trees and Boosting 30