POPULATION

DYNAMICS
WORLD POPULATION GROWTH
 During most of the early period in which humankind first evolved,
global population was very low
 10 thousand years ago, when people first began to domesticate animals
and cultivate crops, world population was no more than 5 million
(Neolithic Revolution)
 This period of economic change significantly altered the relationship
between people and their environments
 The average annual growth rate was less than 0.1 per cent per year
 A result of technological advance the carrying capacity of the land
improved and population increased
 The carrying capacity is the largest population that the resources of a
given environment can support
POPULATION
EXPLOSION
 In 1950, five years after the founding of the United Nations,
world population was estimated at around 2.6 billion people
 It reached 5 billion in 1987 and 6 billion in 1999
 In October 2011, the global population was estimated to be 7
billion
 A global movement 7 Billion Actions was launched to mark this
milestone
 The world’s population is expected to increase by 2 billion
persons in the next 30 years, from 7.7 billion currently to 9.7
billion in 2050 and could peak at nearly 11 billion around 2100
GLOBAL POPULATION
Region Percentage of the Global Population

Asia 61 % (4.7 billion)

Africa 17 % (1.3 billion)
Europe 10 % (750 million)
Latin America and 8 % (650 million)
the Caribbean
Northern America 5 % (370 million in Northern America
and Oceania and 43 million in Oceania)
(Source : World Population Prospects 2019)
MOST POPULOUS COUNTRIES
 China (1.44 billion) and India (1.39 billion) remain the
two most populous countries of the world, both with
more than 1 billion people, representing 19 and 18 per
cent of the world’s population, respectively
 Around 2027, India is projected to overtake China as the
world’s most populous country, while China’s
population is projected to decrease by 31.4 million, or
around 2.2 per cent, between 2019 and 2050
OVER & UNDER POPULATION
OVER POPULATION
UNDER POPULATION
OVER & UNDER POPULATION
 Over-population is when there are too many people/ more people
than resources
 Over-population is when there are too many people so there are not
enough resources to go round/not enough resources to sustain all
people/people exceed the carrying capacity 
 Under-population is when there are not enough people living in a
country/less people than resources
 Under-population is when there are not enough people to fully
exploit the resources/there are surplus resources
 Optimum population is when there is a balance between the
population and resources available so that all resources can be
exploited, but not put under strain
Why a country with a
large population may
not be over-
populated?

Could have large quantities of

resources
Why a country with
a small population
may be over-
populated?

Could be lacking in resources

 Many people could be living there/high
Why countries with
population density/many people have moved
there
large areas of land
 There could be limited amounts of habitable
may not be under-
land/large areas of land could be of little use,
e.g. deserts/mountains
populated?
 Few resources might be available/there are not
lots of resources available, such as
coal/oil/minerals/fertile land, etc.
 High level of technology in the country (allows
economy to develop) without much
labour/capital intensive production, so all
resources can be easily exploited be few people
 Why some
 High population growth/high population
increase
countries become
 High birth rates or reason for high birth rates/a
lot of children born
over-populated?
 Low or decreasing death rates or reason for
decreasing death rate/long life expectancy
 Large amount of immigration/high positive net
migration
 Few resources/resources become
exhausted/increased demand for resources, etc.
Explain how the two types of over population shown have
different causes?
Explain how the two types of over
population shown have different
causes?

 The first picture represents over-population

which is caused by large numbers of people
exploiting resources using low levels of
Explain how the two types of over
population shown have different
causes?

 The second picture shows less population, yet

due to higher levels of technology resources may
be more rapidly exploited, hence the same end
PROBLEMS CAUSED BY OVER POPULATION
 Not enough  Squatter settlements develop where people live
housing/overcrowded in squalor/homeless
 Water and air pollution  Cause diseases such as lung diseases and
water-borne diseases
 Shortage of food and water  People suffer starvation/malnourished and
 High crime rates dehydration
 Not enough health care and People become desperate to stay alive
education  Levels of disease remain high and literacy
levels low/government spend more on
 Lack of employment/lack healthcare and education
of work  Many people have to make a living in the
 Poverty informal sector or remain in poverty
 People cannot afford to send their children to
school
PROBLEMS CAUSED BY OVER POPULATION
 People do not have enough resources/raw materials
 Pressure on energy supplies/strain on utilities e.g. gas or
electricity
 Inadequate water supply/lack of sanitation/ government
spend more on water supply or sanitation
 Overuse of agricultural land/overgrazing
 Deforestation/loss of natural vegetation/habitats
 Disputes over agricultural land/places to live
 Traffic congestion
PROBLEMS CAUSED BY UNDER POPULATION
 Shortage of workers  Immigration is encouraged which may cause
conflicts
 Low level of  There is little to export
production  Causes wastage
 Resources underused
 As there are so few people contributing to the
 High taxes economy
 To provide expensive services, such as
 Lack of government education and health care, for relatively few
income people/people who may be widely spread
 Does not encourage domestic industry
 Small market for
goods and services  There may be little development of primary
 Low value of exports industry or manufacturing
Occurs when there are so many
people wanting materials that
occur on, or under the earth’s
surface, that there are not
enough to go round

What is meant by pressure on

natural resources?
 There are not enough of the
amenities which people need
in their everyday lives, such
as schools and hospitals

What is meant by lack of

essential services ?
Occurs when the sewage
and drainage systems are
not good enough to deal
with the waste water and
human waste

What is meant by
inadequate sanitation?
POPULATION CHANGE
 There are three components of population change : births,
deaths and migration
 Natural population change is calculated by subtracting the
death rate from the birth rate
 To calculate the overall population change the amount of
migration must be considered
 If more people per 1000 move into the country than move
out of it, this is added
 If more move out of the country than into it this is
subtracted
 If the answer is positive the population is growing, if it is
POPULATION CHANGE
Birth Rate Death Rate (per Immigration Emigration Net
Country (per 1000 1000 people) (per 1000) (per 1000) Migration
people) (Immi - Emi)
India 20.2 7.3 8 8.1 -0.1
Belgium 10.0 10.7 6 4.8 1.2
 To calculate natural population change for India and Belgium
INDIA BELGIUM
 BIRTH RATE – DEATH RATE  BIRTH RATE – DEATH
 20.2 – 7.3 RATE
 12.9 (natural increase)  10.0 – 10.7
 To calculate overall population change for Indiaand
-0.7Belgium
(natural decline)
INDIA BELGIUM
 Birth Rate – Death Rate + Net Migration  Birth Rate – Death Rate + Net
 20.2 – 7.3 + (-0.1) Migration
 12.8  10.0 – 10.7 + 1.2
NATURAL INCREASE
 Births and deaths are natural causes of population change
 The difference between the birth rate and the death rate of a country or
place is called the natural increase
 The natural increase is calculated by subtracting the death rate from
the birth rate
 The rate of natural increase is given as a percentage, calculated by
dividing the natural increase by 10
 For example, if the birth rate is 21 per 1000 population, and the death
rate is 14 per 1000 population
 Then the natural increase = 21 - 14 = 7
 That is 7/1000, which is equal to 0.7 per cent
NATURAL INCREASE
 Population will decline if death rate is greater than birth rate
 Population will increase if death rate is less than birth rate
MEDCs (More Economically Developed Countries) LEDCs (Less Economically Developed Countries)
Population Population
Birth Death Natural Natural
Country growth rate Country Birth rate Death rate growth rate
rate rate increase (%)
increase (%)

UK 11 10 1 0.1 South Africa 25 15 10 1

Botswana 31 22 9 0.9
Bulgaria 9 14 -5 -0.5

 As birth rate is less than the death rate, Bulgaria has a declining
population
 South Africa has an increasing population with a population growth
rate of 1 per cent
NATURAL POPULATION GROWTH
 Growth/change/increase in population as a result of difference in
number of births and deaths/births minus deaths/where birth rate is
higher than death rate
Natural Population Growth
= Birth rate – Death rate
 Birth rate is the average number of babies born per 1000 of the
population per year
 Birth rate is the (average) number of births/how many children
born per 1000 of the population in a year
 Death rate is the average number of people who die in a country
per 1000 of the population per year
 The table which shows information about population changes in three countries

Country Birth rate Death rate Natural population growth

(per 1000) (per 1000) (per 1000)
Bolivia 22.8 6.5 16.3
Germany 8.5 11.4 –2.9
New Zealand 13.3 7.4  ?
Natural population growth of New Zealand
= 13.3 – 7.4 (per 1000)
= 5.9 (per 1000)
= 0.59 %
 What is meant by a growth rate of less than 0%?
 Population is decreasing/falling/getting less/negative growth rate
The figure which shows information about the predicted change in population size in
New South Wales, a state in Australia (an MEDC)

How to calculate overall

population growth ?

Overall population growth of

New South Wales (predicted
2011 - 2031)

= BR – DT + Net Migration
= 2.2 – 1.1 + ((-0.4 – 1.3))
= 1.1 + 0.9
= 2.0
The reason of the rates of population growth are high in
many LEDCs
 High birth rates/large families//births exceed deaths/high fertility rates
 Poor access to contraceptives/family planning
 Lack of education about birth control/family planning
 Some religions are against contraception
 Look after elderly parents
 Early marriage/teenage pregnancy
 Little education about adverse impacts of large families
 Large amount of mechanization/of dependence on agriculture/send children to work
 High IMR
 Attitudes towards women
The reason of the rates of population growth are high in
many LEDCs
 Traditional attitudes encourage large families/sign of virility/ polygamy/sign
of wealth/want a son
 Many women don`t have careers
 No government policies
 Decreasing death rates
 Improving health care
 Better care for elderly
 Pension schemes being set up
 Improved water supply/sanitation
 Improved food supply, etc.
The reason of the population is declining in MEDC
countries
 Birth rates are low / death rate higher than birth rate / reason for a high
death rate (must be MEDC context)
 Availability / affordability of contraception
 Contraception/family planning - education about it
 Modern attitudes to family size / people now having smaller families /
high cost of having children
 Women/people have careers/are career orientated/focus on careers
rather than families
 Education of women
 Emancipation of women
The reason of the population is declining in MEDC
countries
 Impact of secular society
 Low infant mortality rates
 Government support for old age
 Abortion made legal / available
 Later marriages/wait a long time to have children
 Same gender partners
 Outward migration/negative net migration, etc.
The problems caused by population growth
 People do not have enough natural resources/raw materials
 Lack of fuel/power (or example such as electricity/wood supply)
 Lack of work
 Poverty
 Inadequate food supplies/high food prices
 Starvation/malnutrition
 Poor access to education, poor access to healthcare/hospitals
 High levels of disease/high death rate/high infant mortality rate
 Lack of/overcrowded housing/not enough space for housing
 People live in squatter settlements
The problems caused by population growth
 Traffic congestion/increase in traffic
 Atmospheric pollution, water pollution
 Inadequate water supply/lack of water
 Inadequate sanitation
 Overuse of or lack of agricultural land/overcultivation
 Overgrazing
 Soil erosion
 Disputes over (agricultural) land/living space
 Deforestation/loss of vegetation
 Loss of habitat
 Loss of species/extinction, etc.
THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
MODEL
 A model of the way that population growth can be divided into five
stages as birth and death rates change over time
THE DEMOGRAPHIC
TRANSITION MODEL
 Stage 1 - High Stationary
 High birth rate
 High death rate
 Natural increase is fluctuating
 Total population is low but it is
balanced due to high birth rate
and death rate
THE DEMOGRAPHIC
TRANSITION MODEL
 Stage 2 - Early Expanding
 High birth rate
 Death rate is decreasing
 Natural increase is large
increase
 Total population rises
THE DEMOGRAPHIC
TRANSITION MODEL
 Stage 3 - Late Expanding
 Birth rate is decreasing
 Death rate is
decreasing/low
 Natural increase is slower
increase
 Total population is still
rising rapidly
THE DEMOGRAPHIC
TRANSITION MODEL
 Stage 4 - Low Stationary
 Birth rate is low
 Death rate is low
 Natural increase is small
increase
 Total population is high,
but it is balanced by a low
birth rate and death rate
THE DEMOGRAPHIC
TRANSITION MODEL
 Stage 5 – Declining
 Birth rate is very low
 Death rate is low
 Natural increase is slow
decrease
 Total population is high but
going into decline due to an
ageing population
BIRTH RATE
 Crude Birth Rate (CBR) is the total number of live births in a year per thousand of
population
 Crude Birth Rate (CBR) is calculated by using formula :
 
CBR = x 1000 b = number of births
p = mid year population of the area
 For example, in 2018, there were 3250 births in Uganda with population of 223000
 
CBR = x 1000
= 14.6
 What is meant by Uganda has a birth rate of 14.6 (in 2018)?
 14.6 out of 1000 people born per year or in 2018/ 1.46% of the population born
in 2018
FACTORS INFLUENCING HIGH BIRTH
RATE
 No abortion available
 Little availability of/people don’t use contraception/family
planning
 Not educated re. contraception/impact of population growth/family
planning
 Not likely to be able to afford contraception
 Want children to work/earn money/to work on the land/on
farms/free labour for the family
 Want children to look after parents in old age
 Want children to look after younger siblings/do domestic chores
 Polygamy
FACTORS INFLUENCING HIGH BIRTH
RATE
 No government policy to reduce family size
 Have large families due to tradition/status
 Have large families due to religious influences/religion does not allow
contraception
 High infant mortality rate/have greater number of children in the hope
some will survive
 Women marry at young age/people have children from a younger age
 Women do not have careers/don’t work/women stay in the home
 Lack of emancipation for women
 Keep having children until boys is born to carry on family name
 Desire for girl children to obtain dowry money
FACTORS INFLUENCING LOW BIRTH
RATE
 Availability of contraception/family planning
 Can afford contraception/family planning
 Educated how to use contraceptives
 Availability of abortions/legalised abortion
 Women have careers/women are more career minded
 Education/emancipation of women
 High cost of children/children are expensive/ Modern
attitudes to family size
FACTORS INFLUENCING LOW BIRTH
RATE
 Lack of religious influences
 The desire for material possessions
 Later marriages
 Low infant mortality rate
 Look after them in old age/have pensions/
government support for old age
 Impact of secular society/religion less important
 Same gender marriages
DEATH RATE
 Crude Death Rate (CDR) is the total number of deaths in a particular year
per thousand of population in a particular region
 Crude Death Rate (CDR) is calculated by using formula :
 
CDR = x 1000 d = number of deaths
p = mid year population of the area
 For example, in 2019, total deaths in South Africa is 9265 and total
population is 550000
 
CDR = x 1000
= 17.5
 What is meant by South Africa has a death rate of 17.5 (in 2019)?
 17.5 out of 1000 people die per year or in 2019/ 1.75% of the population
died in 2019
FACTORS INFLUENCING HIGH DEATH
RATE
 Short life expectancy
 Poor treatment of diseases/lack of medicines/lack of vaccinations
 Lack of health care facilities/hospitals/clinics
 Lack of investment in doctors/nurses
 High levels of named example of disease e.g. Typhoid/AIDS
 Lack of investment in care homes/services for elderly
 No pensions
 Poor diet/poor food supply/starvation/malnutrition/hunger
 Poor water supply
 Poor sanitation/poor hygiene/drought
 War/civil war
 Not educated about disease/hygiene
FACTORS INFLUENCING LOW DEATH
RATE
 Better treatment of diseases/or examples/more medicines/drugs/research
 People have access to regular check-ups
 Improved health care facilities/hospitals/clinics/medical care
 More doctors/nurses
 Investment in care homes/services for elderly
 Improved diet/increased food production/more food/healthy food
 Better water supply
 Better sanitation/hygiene/cleaner living environment
 Pensions/economic support from government
 Education about diet/how to stay healthy/prevent disease
 Vaccinations/inoculations/immunisation
 Use of contraception to reduce disease/HIV
 Better prepared for natural disasters or example
POPULATION POLICY
 Population policy encompasses all of the measures taken by a
government aimed at influencing population size, growth,
distribution or composition
 The policy may promote large families (pro natalist policies) or
immigration to increase population size e.g. pro-natalist policy in
France
 The policy encourage fewer births (anti natalist policies) to reduce
population growth e.g. anti natalist policy in China
 A population policy may also aim to modify the distribution of the
population over the country by encouraging migration or by
displacing populations
 In 1952 India became the first developing country to introduce a
policy designed to reduce fertility and to aid development with