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Wollo University ,Kombolicha Institute of Technology
Department of Software Engineering
Fundamental of Artificial Intelligence
By Ashenafi Workie(MSc.)
KIOT@SE by Ashenafi Workie
Major chapters outlines
1 Chapter 1: Introduction to Artificial intelligence
2 Chapter 2: Intelligent Agent
3 Chapter 3: Solving Problems
4 Chapter 4: Knowledge and Reasoning
5 Chapter 5: Uncertain Knowledge and Reasoning
6 Chapter 6: Learning
7 Chapter 7:Communicating, Perceiving, and Acting 4
What is uncertainty
■ Information can be incomplete, inconsistent, uncertain, or all three. In
other words, information is often unsuitable for solving a problem.
■ Uncertainty is defined as the lack of the exact knowledge that would
enable us to reach a perfectly reliable conclusion. Classical logic permits
only exact reasoning.
■ It assumes that perfect knowledge always exists and the law of the
excluded middle can always be applied:
IF A is tr ue THEN A is If A is false
not false THEN A is not true
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Source of Uncertain Knowledge
• Uncertain inputs
• Missing data
• Noisy data
• Uncertain knowledge
• Multiple causes lead to multiple effects
• Incomplete enumeration of conditions or effects
• Incomplete knowledge of causality in the domain
• Probabilistic/stochastic effects
• Uncertain outputs
• Abduction and induction are inherently uncertain
• Default reasoning, even in deductive fashion, is uncertain
• Incomplete deductive inference may be uncertain
Probabilistic reasoning only gives probabilistic results (summarizes
uncertainty from various sources)
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Uncertain Knowledge and Reasoning
■ Inreal life, it is not always possible to determine the state of the
environment as it might not be clear.
■ Due to partially observable or non-deterministic environments, agents may
need to handle uncertainty and deal with:
■ Uncertain data: Data that is missing, unreliable, inconsistent or noisy.
■ Uncertain knowledge: When the available knowledge has multiple causes
leading to multiple effects or incomplete knowledge of causality in the
domain.
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Uncertain Knowledge and Reasoning
■ Inference: In case of incomplete or default reasoning methods, conclusions
drawn might not be completely accurate. Let’s understand this better with
the help of an example.
IF primary infection is bacteriacea
AND site of infection is sterile
AND entry point is gastrointestinal tract
THEN organism is bacteriod (0.7).
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Uncertain Knowledge and Reasoning
■ In such uncertain situations, the agent does not guarantee a solution but acts
on its own assumptions and probabilities and gives some degree of belief
that it will reach the required solution.
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Uncertain Knowledge and Reasoning
For example, In case of Medical diagnosis consider the rule
Toothache = Cavity.
This is not complete as not all patients having toothache have
cavities. So we can write a more generalized rule
Toothache = Cavity V Gum problems V Abscess…
To make this rule complete, we will have to list all the possible
causes of toothache. But this is not feasible due to:
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Uncertain Knowledge and Reasoning
Laziness- It will require a lot of effort to list the complete set of
antecedents and consequents to make the rules complete.
Theoretical ignorance- Medical science does not have complete
theory for the domain
Practical ignorance- It might not be practical that all tests have
been or can be conducted for the patients.
Such uncertain situations can be dealt with using
Probability theory
Truth Maintenance systems
Fuzzy logic.
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Probabilistic reasoning:
Probabilistic reasoning is a way of knowledge representation where we apply
the concept of probability to indicate the uncertainty in knowledge.
In probabilistic reasoning, we combine probability theory with logic to handle
the uncertainty.
We use probability in probabilistic reasoning because it provides a way to
handle the uncertainty that is the result of someone's laziness and ignorance.
In the real world, there are lots of scenarios, where the certainty of
something is not confirmed, such as "It will rain today," "behavior of
someone for some situations," "A match between two teams or two players.“
These are probable sentences for which we can assume that it will happen
but not sure about it, so here we use probabilistic reasoning.
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Need of probabilistic reasoning in AI
• When there are unpredictable outcomes.
• When specifications or possibilities of predicates becomes too large to
handle.
• When an unknown error occurs during an experiment.
• In probabilistic reasoning, there are two ways to solve problems with
uncertain knowledge:
• Bayes' rule
• Bayesian Statistics
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Probability
• Probability: Probability can be defined as a chance that an uncertain event
will occur. It is the numerical measure of the likelihood that an event will
occur. The value of probability always remains between 0 and 1 that
represent ideal uncertainties.
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Probability
• We can find the probability of an uncertain event by using the below formula.
• P(¬A) = probability of a not happening event.
• P(¬A) + P(A) = 1.
• Event: Each possible outcome of a variable is called an event.
• Sample space: The collection of all possible events is called sample space.
• Random variables: Random variables are used to represent the events and objects in the real
world.
• Prior probability: The prior probability of an event is probability computed before observing
new information.
• Posterior Probability: The probability that is calculated after all evidence or information has
taken into account. It is a combination of prior probability and new information. 15
Conditional probability
• Conditional probability is a probability of occurring an event when another
event has already happened.
• Let's suppose, we want to calculate the event A when event B has already
occurred, "the probability of A under the conditions of B", it can be written
as:
• Where P(A⋀ B)= Joint probability of a and B
• P(B)= Marginal probability of B.
• If the probability of A is given and we need to find the probability of B, then it
will be given as:
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Conditional probability
• It can be explained by using the below Venn diagram, where B is occurred
event, so sample space will be reduced to set B, and now we can only
calculate event A when event B is already occurred by dividing the probability
of P(A⋀B) by P( B ).
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Example
• In a class, there are 70% of the students who like English and 40% of the
students who likes English and mathematics, and then what is the percent of
students those who like mathematics?
• Solution:
• Let, A is an event that a student likes Mathematics
• B is an event that a student likes English.
• Hence, 57% are the students who like English also like Mathematics.
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Bayes' theorem:
• Bayes' theorem is also known as Bayes' rule, Bayes' law, or Bayesian reasoning,
which determines the probability of an event with uncertain knowledge.
• In probability theory, it relates the conditional probability and marginal probabilities
of two random events.
• Bayes' theorem was named after the British mathematician Thomas Bayes.
The Bayesian inference is an application of Bayes' theorem, which is fundamental to
Bayesian statistics.
• It is a way to calculate the value of P(B|A) with the knowledge of P(A|B).
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Bayes' theorem:
• Bayes' theorem allows updating the probability prediction of an event by
observing new information of the real world.
• Example: If cancer corresponds to one's age then by using Bayes' theorem,
we can determine the probability of cancer more accurately with the help of
age.
• Bayes' theorem can be derived using product rule and conditional probability
of event A with known event B:
• As from product rule we can write:
P(A ⋀ B)= P(A|B) P(B) or
• Similarly, the probability of event B with known event A:
P(A ⋀ B)= P(B|A) P(A)
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Bayes' theorem:
• Equating right hand side of both the equations, we will get:
• The above equation (a) is called as Bayes' rule or Bayes' theorem. This
equation is basic of most modern AI systems for probabilistic inference.
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Bayes' theorem:
• P(A|B) is known as posterior, which we need to calculate, and it will be read as Probability of
hypothesis A when we have occurred an evidence B.
• P(B|A) is called the likelihood, in which we consider that hypothesis is true, then we
calculate the probability of evidence.
• P(A) is called the prior probability, probability of hypothesis before considering the evidence
• P(B) is called marginal probability, pure probability of an evidence.
• In the equation (a), in general, we can write P (B) = P(A)*P(B|Ai), hence the Bayes' rule can
be written as:
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Bayes' theorem:
• Where A1, A2, A3,........, An is a set of mutually exclusive and exhaustive events.
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Apply Bayes’ rule:
Bayes' rule allows us to compute the single term P(B|A) in terms of P(A|B),
P(B), and P(A).
This is very useful in cases where we have a good probability of these three
terms and want to determine the fourth one.
Suppose we want to perceive the effect of some unknown cause, and want to
compute that cause, then the Bayes' rule becomes:
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Example 1
Question: what is the probability that a patient has diseases meningitis with a stiff neck?
Given Data:
• A doctor is aware that disease meningitis causes a patient to have a stiff neck, and it occurs 80% of the
time. He is also aware of some more facts, which are given as follows:
• The Known probability that a patient has meningitis disease is 1/30,000.
• The Known probability that a patient has a stiff neck is 2%.
• Let a be the proposition that patient has stiff neck and b be the proposition that patient has meningitis. ,
so we can calculate the following as:
P(a|b) = 0.8
P(b) = 1/30000
P(a)= .02 25
Apply Bayes’ rule:
Hence, we can assume that 1 patient out of 750 patients has meningitis disease with a stiff
neck.
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Example 2
Question: From a standard deck of playing cards, a single card is drawn. The
probability that the card is king is 4/52, then calculate posterior probability P(King|
Face), which means the drawn face card is a king card.
Solution:
P(king): probability that the card is King= 4/52= 1/13
P(face): probability that a card is a face card= 3/13
P(Face|King): probability of face card when we assume it is a king = 1
Putting all values in equation (i) we will get:
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Applications of Bayes' theorem
• Following are some applications of Bayes' theorem:
• It is used to calculate the next step of the robot when the already executed
step is given.
• Bayes' theorem is helpful in weather forecasting.
• It can solve the Monty Hall problem.
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End ….
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