Introduction to
Probability
Dr. Mahmoud Abd
El-Raouf
Basic
Random Experiment: Definitions
All possible outcomes can be defined in advance. And there is uncertainty about which
outcome will occur when the experiment is performed, such as tossing a coin.
Sample Space (S): It is the set of all possible outcomes of the random experiment.
Example 1:
1) Tossing one fair coins :
S = {H, T}
2) Tossing two fair coins together:
S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}
3) Tossing fair coin three times:
S = { HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, TTT}
4) Tossing fair coin n times or tossing n fair coins one time. sample space is
Basic
Example 2: Definitions
1) Tossing one fair die : S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
2) Tossing two fair dice together:
(1,1), (1,2), (1,3), (1,4), (1,5), (1,6)
(2,1), (2,2), (2,3), (2,4), (2,5), (2,6)
(3,1), (3,2), (3,3), (3,4), (3,5), (3,6)
S
(4,1), (4,2), (4,3), (4,4), (4,5), (4,6)
(5,1), (5,2), (5,3), (5,4), (5,5), (5,6)
(6,1), (6,2), (6,3), (6,4), (6,5), (6,6)
Basic
Examples of random Experiment:
Definitions
Drawing a card from a well-shuffled standard
deck of 52 cards. Denoting by C,D,H,
and S clubs, diamonds, hearts, and spades,
respectively, by J,Q,K Jack, Queen, and King,
and using 1 for aces
Recording the gender of children of three children families.
With b and g standing for boy and girl .
S = {BBB, BBG, BGB, BGG, GBB, GBG, GGB, GGG
Basic
C. Event: Definitions
An event A and B is a sub set of the sample space.
Event B is sub set of event A.
Example 3: If we toss a die one time: S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Find the following events:
1) Score is even : 𝑨={𝟐, 𝟒,𝟔}
2) Score is less than 5 : 𝑩={𝟏, 𝟐,𝟑, 𝟒}
3) Score is odd : 𝑪={𝟏 , 𝟑 , 𝟓 }
4)Score is even and less than 5 𝑨 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝑩={𝟐, 𝟒}
5)Score is even or less than 5 𝑨𝒐𝒓 𝑩={𝟏,𝟐,𝟑 ,𝟒 ,𝟔}
6) Score is not less than 5: 𝒏𝒐𝒕 𝑩={𝟓 , 𝟔 }
Basic
Example 4:
Definitions
If we rolls two fair dice :
•Let D1 be the value rolled on die 1.
•Let D2 be the value rolled on die 2.
1) the face-up value of the first one is 2
,,,,}
2) sum of two values is no greater than 5 :
{ }
( 1 ,1 ) , ( 1 ,2 ) , ( 1 , 3 ) , ( 1 , 4 ) , ( 1 ,5 ) ,
𝐵=
( 2 ,1 ) , ( 2 , 2 ) , ( 2 ,3 ) ,
( 3 ,1 ) , ( 3 , 2 ) ,
( 4 , 1)
Basic Rules of Probability:
Probability of event A:
𝒏( 𝑨) 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑜𝑓 𝑨
𝑷 ( 𝑨 )= =
𝑵 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠𝑜𝑓 𝑺
As then
Basic Rules of Probability:
Example 3: For throwing coin three times,
S = { HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, TTT} N=8
1) Event A is two or more heads:
𝒏( 𝑨) 𝟒 𝟏
𝑨= { 𝑯𝑯𝑻 , 𝑯𝑻𝑯 ,𝑻𝑯𝑯 ,𝑯𝑯𝑯 𝑷
} ( 𝑨 )= 𝑵 ¿ 𝟖 = 𝟐
2) Event B is all tosses are the same:
𝒏(𝑩) 𝟐 𝟏
𝑩= { 𝑻𝑻𝑻 , 𝑯𝑯𝑯 } 𝑷 ( 𝑩)=
𝑵
¿ =
𝟖 𝟒
Example 4: If balls are numbered from 1 to 15 and a ball is selected, what is the probability of:
A: prime number greater than 5
𝑨= {𝟕 , 𝟏𝟏 , 𝟏𝟑 } 𝒏( 𝑨) 𝟑 𝟏
𝑷 ( 𝑨 )= = =
𝑵 𝟏𝟓 𝟓
B: odd number less than 11.
𝒏( 𝑩 ) 𝟓 𝟏
𝑩= { 𝟏 ,𝟑 , 𝟓 , 𝟕 ,𝟗 } 𝑷 ( 𝑩)= = =
𝑵 𝟏𝟓 𝟑
Basic Rules of Probability:
1) Intersection of Events:
The occurrence of event A and B (Both events occur)
𝑷 ( 𝑨∩ 𝑩)
2) Union of Events:
The occurrence of event A or B (At least one event)
𝑷 ( 𝑨∪ 𝑩)
𝑷 ( 𝑨 ∪ 𝑩 ) =¿𝑷 ( 𝑨+) 𝑷 ( 𝑩−) 𝑷 ( 𝑨∩ 𝑩 )
Basic Rules of Probability:
3) Complementary of Event:
Complementary of event A is subset of S and does not belong to A.
′
𝑷 (𝑨¿¿𝒄)=𝑷 ( 𝑨 )=𝑷(𝑨 )=𝟏− 𝑷( 𝑨)¿
4) The occurrence of only A and not B:
The occurrence of event A and not occurrence of B
5) The occurrence of only B and not A:
The occurrence of event B and not occurrence of A
Basic Rules of Probability:
De Morgan Laws
𝑷 ( 𝑨 ∪ 𝑩 )= 𝑷 ( 𝑨∩ 𝑩 ) =𝟏− 𝑷( 𝑨∩ 𝑩)
𝑷 ( 𝑨 ∩ 𝑩 )= 𝑷 ( 𝑨∪ 𝑩 )=𝟏− 𝑷( 𝑨∪ 𝑩)
Basic Rules of Probability:
Example 3: Let A, B and C be there arbitrary events. Find expressions for the following events
that of A, B and C.
• All three events occur ( 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵∩ 𝐶 )
• Non occurs ( 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵∩ 𝐶 )
• At least one occur ( 𝐴∪ 𝐵∪ 𝐶 )
• Only A occurs, ( 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵∩ 𝐶 )
• One and only one occurs ( 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵∩ 𝐶 ) ∪ ( 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶 ) ∪ ( 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵∩ 𝐶 )
• Not more than two occur
( 𝐴∩𝐵∩𝐶 )∪ ( 𝐴∩𝐵∩𝐶 ) ∪ ( 𝐴∩𝐵∩𝐶 )∪ ( 𝐴∩𝐵∩𝐶 ) ∪ ( 𝐴∩𝐵∩𝐶 )∪ ( 𝐴∩𝐵∩𝐶 ) ∪ ( 𝐴∩𝐵∩𝐶 )
= At most two occur ¿ 𝑆− ( 𝐴∩ 𝐵 ∩𝐶 )
• At least two occur ( 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵∩ 𝐶 ) ∪ ( 𝐴∩ 𝐵 ∩𝐶 ) ∪ ( 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵∩ 𝐶 ) ∪ ( 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ∩𝐶 )
Basic Rules of Probability:
𝒏( 𝑨) 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑜𝑓 𝑨
𝑷 ( 𝑨 )= =
𝑵 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠𝑜𝑓 𝑺
𝟎 ≤ 𝑷 ( 𝑨)≤ 𝟏
𝑷 ( 𝑨∪ 𝑩) =𝑷 ( 𝑨 ) +𝑷 ( 𝑩 ) − 𝑷 ( 𝑨∩ 𝑩)
𝑷 ( 𝑨)=𝟏− 𝑷( 𝑨)
𝑷 ( 𝑨 ∪ 𝑩 )=𝑷 ( 𝑨∩𝑩 ) =𝟏− 𝑷( 𝑨∩𝑩)
𝑷 ( 𝑨 ∩𝑩 )=𝑷 ( 𝑨∪ 𝑩 )=𝟏− 𝑷( 𝑨∪ 𝑩)
Probability and Communication
Systems
• when you talk on the phone, what you say is converted to
a sequence of 0's or 1's called information bits. These
information bits are then transmitted by your cell phone
antenna to a nearby cell tower
• your cell phone may transmit the sequence "010010⋯,"
while the sequence "010110⋯" might be received at the
cell tower. In this case, the fourth bit is incorrect.
• Errors like this could affect the quality of the audio in your
phone conversation.
• The noise in the transmission is a random phenomenon.
Before sending the transmission we do not know which
bits will be affected.
• Probability theory is used extensively in the design of
modern communication systems in order to understand
the behavior of noise in these systems and take measures
to correct the errors.
Good luck
Dr. Mahmoud Abd
El-Raouf
