Recruitment and Personnel Forecasting Guide
Recruitment and Personnel Forecasting Guide
and Recruiting
Session 4
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
1. List the steps in the recruitment and selection process.
2. Explain the main techniques used in employment
planning and forecasting.
3. Explain and give examples for the need for effective
recruiting.
4. Name and describe the main internal sources of
candidates.
5. List and discuss the main outside sources of candidates.
6. Develop a help wanted ad.
7. Explain how to recruit a more diverse workforce.
.
5–5
Forecasting Personnel Needs (Labor
Demand)
• A firms staffing needs reflect demand for its products or services,
adjusted for changes the firm plans to make in its strategic goals
and for changes in its turnover rate and productivity.
• The basic process of forecasting personnel needs is to:
First forecast revenues.
Then estimate the size of the staff required to support this sales
volume.
Managers must also consider other, strategic factors. These
include:
projected turnover,
decisions to upgrade (or downgrade) products or services,
productivity changes,
financial resources.
• There are several simple tools for projecting personnel
Forecasting Personnel Needs
• TREND ANALYSIS
Trend analysis means studying variations in the firms employment levels
over the last few years
One might compute the number of employees at the end of each of the last
5 years, or perhaps the number in each subgroup (like sales, production,
secretarial, and administrative)
The aim is to identify trends that might continue into the future
Trend analysis can provide an initial estimate of future staffing needs, but
employment levels rarely depend just on the passage of time.
Other factors (like changes in sales volume and productivity) also affect
staffing needs
• Carefully studying the firms historical and current workforce demographics
and voluntary withdrawals (due to retirements and resignations, for
instance) can help reveal impending labor force needs.
Estimating Internal Labor
Supply for a Given Unit
Forecasting Personnel Needs
• RATIO ANALYSIS
• Making forecasts based on the historical ratio between:
(1) some causal factor (like sales volume) and
(2) the number of employees required (such as number of salespeople).
For example, suppose a salesperson traditionally generates $500,000 in
sales.
If the sales revenue to salespeople ratio remains the same, you would
require six new salespeople next year (each of whom produces an extra
$500,000) to produce a hoped-for extra $3 million in sales
Like trend analysis, ratio analysis assumes that productivity remains about
the same for instance, that one can t motivate each salesperson to produce
much more than $500,000 in sales
If sales productivity were to rise or fall, the ratio of sales to salespeople
would change
Forecasting Personnel Needs
• THE SCATTER PLOT
A scatter plot shows graphically how two variables such as sales and your
firms staffing levels are related
If they are, then if one can forecast the business activity (like sales), you
should also be able to estimate your personnel needs.
Suppose a 500-bed hospital expects to expand to 1,200 beds over the
next 5 years.
The human resource director wants to forecast how many registered
nurses they will need.
The human resource director realizes she must determine the relationship
between size of hospital (in terms of number of beds) and number of
nurses required.
She calls eight hospitals of various sizes and gets the following figures
THE SCATTER PLOT
• Size of Hospital
• (Number of Beds) Number of Registered
Nurses
1. 200 240
2. 300 260
3. 400 470
4. 500 500
5. 600 620
6. 700 660
7. 800 820
8. 900 860
Drawbacks to Traditional Forecasting
Techniques
• They focus on projections and historical relationships.
• They do not consider the impact of strategic initiatives
on future staffing levels.
• They support compensation plans that reward
managers for managing ever-larger staffs.
• They “bake in” the idea that staff increases are
inevitable.
• They validate and institutionalize present planning
processes and the usual ways of doing things.
Using Computers to Forecast Personnel
Requirements
• Computerized Personnel Forecasting
• Computerized forecasts enable managers to build
more variables into their personnel projections
• These systems rely on setting clear goals, such as
reducing inventory on hand.
• Other variables might include direct labor hours
required to produce one unit of product (a
measure of productivity), and minimum,
maximum, and probable sales projections.
Forecasting the Supply of Inside Candidates
5–16
COMPUTERIZED SKILLS INVENTORIES
• Larger employers computerize HR information, using various packaged
software systems such as Survey Analytics s Skills Inventory Software.
• Such programs help management anticipate human resource shortages,
and facilitate making employment recruitment and training plans
• Such software also link skills inventories with their other human
resources systems.
• An employee s skills inventory might automatically update each time he
or she is trained or appraised.
• Computerized skills inventory data typically include items like work
experience codes, product knowledge, the employee s level of familiarity
with the employer s product lines or services, the person s industry
experience, and formal education
Forecasting the Supply of Outside
Candidates
• Forecasting labor supply depends first on the manager s own sense of what s
happening in his or her industry and locale
• Economic and Governmental Factors
The general cycles of economic recession and economic boom in different
businesses affect HR planning
Factors such as:
interest rates,
inflation, an
economic decline or
growth
affect the availability of workers and should figure into organizational and HR
plans and objectives.
• An organization must consider a wide variety of government policies,
regulations, and laws during the HR planning process
Forecasting the Supply of Outside
Candidates
• Competitive Evaluations
The net migration into a particular region is important.
• Direct competitors
• Failure to consider the competitive labor market and to offer pay
scales and benefits competitive with those of organizations in the
same general industry and geographic location may cost a company
dearly in the long run
• International competition
Global competition for labor intensifies as global competitors shift
jobs and workers around the world, as illustrated by the
outsourcing of jobs from the United States to countries with
cheaper labor.
Forecasting the Supply of Outside
Candidates
• Changing Workforce Considerations
When scanning the potential and future workforce, it is important to
consider a number of variables, including;
Aging of the workforce
Growing diversity of workers
Female workers and work-life balancing concerns
Availability of contingent workers
Outsourcing possibilities
When considering these factors, it is important to analyze how they affect
the current and future availability of workers with specific capabilities and
experience
One global study found that less than 15% of surveyed firms have planned
for workforce shortages due to the “brain drain” created by the retirement
of existing older workers
Developing an Action Plan to
Match Projected
Labor Supply and Labor Demand
• Workforce planning should logically culminate in a workforce
action plan
• This lays out the employer’s projected workforce demand
supply gaps, as well as staffing plans for filling the necessary
positions.
• The staffing plan should identify:
The positions to be filled,
Potential internal and external sources for these positions,
The required training, development, and promotional
activities moving people into the positions will entail,
The resources that implementing the staffing plan will require
THE NEED FOR EFFECTIVE
RECRUITING
• Employee recruiting means finding and/or
attracting applicants for the employer s open
positions
• Why Recruiting Is Important
If only two candidates apply for two openings,
you may have little choice but to hire them.
But if 10 or 20 applicants appear, you can use
techniques like interviews and tests to screen
out all but the best
THE NEED FOR EFFECTIVE
RECRUITING
• What Makes Recruiting a Challenge?
• First, some recruiting methods are superior to
others, depending on the type of job for which
you are recruiting
• Second, the success you have recruiting
depends on non recruitment issues and policies.
• For example, paying 10% more than most firms
in your locale should, other things being equal,
help you build a bigger applicant pool faster
THE NEED FOR EFFECTIVE
RECRUITING
• External Factors Affecting Recruiting
– Supply of workers
– Outsourcing of white-collar jobs
– Fewer “qualified” candidates
• Other Factors Affecting Recruiting Success
– Consistency of recruitment with strategic goals
– Types of jobs recruited and recruiting methods
– Nonrecruitment HR issues and policies
– Successful prescreening of applicants
– Public image of the firm
– Employment laws
Organizing How You Recruit
Advantages of Centralizing Recruiting
Efforts
Fosters
Facilitates Reduces Ensures
effective use
strategic duplication of compliance
of online
priorities HR activities with EEO laws
recruiting
5–25
Internal Sources of Candidates
Advantages Disadvantages
5–26
Finding Internal Candidates
• Job Posting
Hiring from within ideally relies on job posting and the firms
skills inventories.
Job posting means publicizing the open job to employees
(usually by literally posting it on company intranets or bulletin
boards).
These postings list the job s attributes, like qualifications,
supervisor, work schedule, and pay rate.
Qualifications skills banks also play a role.
For example, the database may reveal persons who have
potential for further training or who have the right background
for the open job.
Finding Internal Candidates
• Rehiring
On the plus side, former employees are known quantities (more
or less) and are already familiar with how you do things.
On the other hand, employees who you let go may return with
negative attitudes
• Succession Planning
the ongoing process of systematically identifying, assessing, and
developing organizational leadership to enhance performance
Succession planning entails three steps:
1. Identify key needs,
2. Develop inside candidates,
3. Assess and choose those who will fill the key positions.
Finding Internal Candidates
• Succession Planning (contd.)
1. IDENTIFY KEY NEEDS
Based on the company s strategic and business plans,
top management and the HR director identify what the
company s future key position needs will be.
Matters to address in this early stage include:
Defining key positions,
Defining high potentials ,
Enlisting top management support,
Reviewing the company’ s current talent
Finding Internal Candidates
• Succession Planning (contd.)
2. DEVELOP INSIDE CANDIDATES
Creating means providing the inside or outside candidates you
identify with the developmental experiences they require to
be viable candidates.
Employers develop high-potential employees through
internal training and cross-functional experiences, job rotation,
external training, and global/regional assignments.
3. ASSESS AND CHOOSE
• Finally, succession planning requires assessing these candidates
and selecting those who will actually fill the key positions
Outside Sources of Candidates
Locating Outside Candidates
5 Offshoring/Outsourcing
5–31
FIGURE 5–7 Some Top Online Recruiting Job Boards
5–34
Advertising for Outside Candidates
• The Media Choice
– Selection of the best medium depends on the
positions for which the firm is recruiting.
• Newspapers: local and specific labor markets
• Trade and professional journals: specialized employees
• Internet job sites: global labor markets
• Constructing (Writing) Effective Ads
– Create attention, interest, desire, and action (AIDA).
– Create a positive impression (image) of the firm.
FIGURE 5–9 Help Wanted Ad that Draws Attention
Types of
Employment
Agencies
5–37
Why Use a Private Employment Agency?
• No HR department:
firm lacks recruiting and screening capabilities to
attract a pool of qualified applicants.
• To fill a particular opening quickly.
• To attract more minority or female applicants.
• To reach currently employed individuals who are more
comfortable dealing with agencies than competing
companies.
• To reduce internal time devoted to recruiting
Avoiding Problems with
Employment Agencies
• Give agency an accurate and complete job description.
• Make sure tests, application blanks, and interviews are
part of the agency’s selection process.
• Review candidates accepted or rejected by your firm
or the agency for effectiveness and fairness of
agency’s screening process.
• Screen agency for effectiveness in filling positions.
• Supplement the agency’s reference checking by
checking the final candidate’s references yourself.
Specialized Staffing and Recruiting
• Alternative Staffing
– In-house contingent (casual, seasonal, or temporary)
workers employed by the company, but on an explicit short-
term basis.
– Contract technical employees supplied for long-term
projects under contract from outside technical services
firms.
• On-Demand Recruiting Services (ODRS)
– Provide short-term specialized recruiting to support specific
projects without the expense of retaining traditional search
firms
Working with a Temp Agency
• Invoicing. Make sure the agency’s invoice fits your firm’s needs.
• Time sheets. The time sheet is a verification of hours worked and an
agreement to pay the agency’s fees.
• Temp-to-perm policy. What is the policy if you want to hire a temp as a
permanent employee?
• Recruitment of and benefits for temp employees. How does the agency
plan to recruit and what sorts of benefits will it pay?
• Dress code. Specify the attire at each of your offices or plants.
• Equal employment opportunity statement. Get a statement from the
agency that it does not discriminate when filling temp orders.
• Job description information. Ensure that the agency understands the job
to be filled and the sort of person you want to fill it.
5–41
Concerns of Temp Employees
• Dehumanizing, impersonal, and discouraging treatment by
employers.
• Insecurity about employment and pessimism about the
future.
• Worry about the lack of insurance and pension benefits.
• Being misled about job assignments and whether temporary
assignments are likely to become full-time positions.
• Being “underemployed” while trying to return to the full-
time labor market.
• Anger toward the corporate world and its values; expressed
as alienation and disenchantment.
5–42
FIGURE 5–10 Ten Things Managers Should Avoid When
Supervising Temporary Employees
Do Not:
1. Train your contingent workers. Ask their staffing agency to handle training.
2. Negotiate the pay rate of your contingent workers. The agency should set pay.
3. Coach or counsel a contingent worker on his/her job performance. Instead, call the person’s
agency and request that it do so.
4. Negotiate a contingent worker’s vacations or personal time off. Direct the worker to his or her
agency.
5. Routinely include contingent workers in your company’s employee functions.
6. Allow contingent workers to utilize facilities intended for employees.
7. Let managers issue company business cards, nameplates, or employee badges to contingent
workers without HR and legal approval.
8. Let managers discuss harassment or discrimination issues with contingent workers.
9. Discuss job opportunities and the contingent worker’s suitability for them directly. Instead,
refer the worker to publicly available job postings.
10. Terminate a contingent worker directly. Contact the agency to do so.
5–43
Offshoring and Outsourcing Jobs
• Outsourcing means having outside vendors supply
services (such as benefits management, market
research, or manufacturing) that the company’s own
employees previously did in-house.
• Offshoring is a narrower term.
• It means having outside vendors or employees
abroad supply services that the company s own
employees previously did in-house.
• Sending out jobs, particularly overseas, presents
employers with some special challenges.
Offshoring and Outsourcing Jobs
Political and
military instability
Resentment and
Cultural
anxiety of U.S.
misunderstandin
employees/union
gs
s
Outsourcing/
Offshoring
Customers’
Costs of foreign Issues securing and
workers
privacy concerns
Foreign
Special training
contracts,
of foreign
liability, and
employees
legal concerns
5–45
Executive Recruiters
• Executive recruiters (also known as headhunters) are special employment
agencies employers retain to seek out top-management talent for their
clients.
These jobs include key executive and technical positions.
For executive positions, headhunters may be your only source of
candidates.
The employer always pays the fees
There are two types of executive recruiters contingent and retained
Retained executive search are paid regardless of whether the employer
hires the executive through the search firms efforts
Contingency-based recruiters tend to handle junior- to middle-level
management job searches
Executive recruiters are using more technology and becoming more
specialized
Executive Recruiters
• PROS AND CONS
They have many contacts and are especially adept at finding
qualified employee candidates who are not actively looking to
change jobs.
They can keep your firms name confidential until late into the
search process
The recruiter can save top management s time by finding and
screening an applicant pool
The big issue is ensuring that the recruiter really understands your
needs and then delivers properly vetted candidates who fill the bill.
Some recruiters also may be more interested in persuading you to
hire a candidate than in finding one who will really do the job
Executive Recruiters
• Guidelines for Choosing a Recruiter
1. Make sure the firm is capable of conducting a
thorough search.
2. Meet individual who will handle your assignment.
3. Ask how much the search firm charges.
4. Make sure the recruiter and you agree on what
sort of person you need for the position.
5. Never rely solely on the recruiter to do reference
checking
College Recruiting
Sending an employer s representatives to college campuses to prescreen
applicants and create an applicant pool from the graduating class is an
important source of management trainees and professional and technical
employees
The problem is that on-campus recruiting is expensive and time-consuming.
Schedules must be set well in advance,
company brochures printed,
interview records kept,
and much time spent on campus.
Recruiters themselves are sometimes ineffective.
Some recruiters are unprepared,
show little interest in the candidate,
act superior.
Many don t screen candidates effectively
College Recruiting
• ON-CAMPUS RECRUITING GOALS
1. To determine if a candidate is worthy of further
consideration
Usual traits to assess include communication skills,
education, experience, and interpersonal skills
2. To attract good candidates
A sincere and informal attitude, respect for the
applicant, and prompt follow-up letters can help
sell the employer to the interviewee
College Recruiting
3. THE ON-SITE VISIT
Employers generally invite good candidates to the office or
plant for an on-site visit.
There are several ways to make this visit fruitful.
The invitation should be warm and friendly but businesslike,
and should give the person a choice of dates to visit.
Have someone meet the applicant, preferably at the airport or
at his or her hotel, and act as host.
A package containing the applicant s schedule as well as other
information regarding the company such as annual reports and
employee benefits should be waiting for the applicant at the
hotel
College Recruiting
• THE ON-SITE VISIT (contd.)
• Plan the interviews and adhere to the schedule.
• Avoid interruptions; give the candidate the undivided
attention of each person with whom he or she interviews.
• Have another recently hired graduate host the candidate s
lunch.
• Make any offer as soon as possible, preferably at the time
of the visit.
• If this is not possible, tell the candidate when to expect a
decision. Frequent follow-ups to find out how the decision
process is going may help to tilt the applicant in your favor
College Recruiting
• INTERNSHIPS
Many college students get their jobs through college
internships.
Internships can be win win situations
For students, it may mean being able to:
Learn business skills,
Learn more about potential employers,
Discover their career likes (and dislikes).
Employers can use the interns to make useful contributions
while evaluating them as possible full-time employees.
Sources of Outside Applicants
5–58
Developing and Using Application Forms
5–59
FIGURE 5–12 FBI Employment Application
5–60
Application Forms and the Law
Educational
achievements
Housing Arrest
arrangements record
Areas of
Personal
Notification in
Marital Information case of
status
emergency
Physical Membership in
handicaps organizations
5–61
Two-Stage Process
5–62
FIGURE 5–13 Sample Acceptable Questions Once Conditional Offer Is Made
1. Do you have any responsibilities that conflict with the job vacancy?
2. How long have you lived at your present address?
3. Do you have any relatives working for this company?
4. Do you have any physical defects that would prevent you from performing
certain jobs where, to your knowledge, vacancies exist?
5. Do you have adequate means of transportation to get to work?
6. Have you had any major illness (treated or untreated) in the past 10 years?
7. Have you ever been convicted of a felony or do you have a history of being a
violent person? (This is a very important question to avoid a negligent hiring or
retention charge.)
8. What is your educational background? (The information required here would
depend on the job-related requirements of the position.)
5–63