“The climate is what you expect; the

weather is what you get”

Module 5
◤

Forecasting global warming

with climate change models.
◤
Videos

How scientists calculate climate change

▪ [Link]
Modeling Our Climate
[Link]
◤

Questions on
Module 5
 Video 1
◤
▪ Q.1: Elaborate on the significance of climate models
and how are they different from subjective or qualitative
predictions?
▪ Q.2: Describe the Major factors used for assessing a
Climate model.
▪ Q.3: Explain the terms: Parameterization and attribution
▪ Q.4: Differentiate between Climate model and weather
forecast.
▪ Q.5: List the major fingerprints of climate change.
▪ Q.6: Explain what are grids in a climate modelling and
what is the significance of the same.
 ◤
Video 2

▪ Q.1: What are the types of models available and what

are the components it works on?
▪ Q.2: What are the major state variables and laws
considered for the model?
▪ Q.3. Why can’t no model be used to predict complex
climate systems?
 Significance of climate modelling
◤
❖ Climate models are important tools for improving our understanding
and predictability of climate behaviour on seasonal, annual, decadal,
and centennial time scales.

❖ Models investigate the degree to which observed climate changes

may be due to natural variability, human activity, or a combination of
both.

❖ The results and projections provide essential information to better

inform decisions of national, regional, and local importance, such as
water resource management, agriculture, transportation, and urban
planning.

❖ The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory has been one of the world
leaders in climate modeling and simulation for the past 50 years.

❖ In the 1960s, GFDL scientists developed the first coupled ocean-

atmosphere general circulation climate model (AOGCM).

❖ State-of-the art climate modeling at GFDL requires vast computational

resources, including supercomputers with thousands of processors and
petabytes of data storage.
 ◤
Video 4 and 5

▪ Briefly describe the evolution of climate

models
▪ What are the major outcomes of GCM
Models?
▪ How does a GCM Model work?
▪ What is the significance of time steps?
▪ How is GCM Models robust?
CLIMATE AND CLIMATE MODELLING
◤

(Source: IPCC,
 Building a climatic model
◤

▪ Climate models divide the world into 3D blocks called grid

cells.
▪ Each cell has information about whether it is covered by water
or land and the land use
▪ Each cell also uses physical and chemical laws to simulate
the movement of air, water and energy.
▪ The mathematical equations are turned into computer code.
▪ Additional coding allows the different grid cells to interact.
▪ Climate happens over a period of years, so the models run on
hourly, daily or weekly timescales. Highly Complex
◤
 Factors that change the climate
◤

Forcing Factors
❖ Greenhouse Gases
(CO2, CH4, N2O, O3, CFCs)
❖ Aerosols
(SO4, Carbon, Nitrate, Dust etc.)
❖ Land use and Land Cover
❖ Solar radiation
❖ Volcano, etc.
Sources/Actors:
People, Industry, Agriculture, Urbanization,
Vehicles, Disaster etc.

(Source: IPCC, 2013 )

Important 5 components to
understand climate models
◤
1. Solar Radiation
(absorbed by the
atmosphere and sea)

2. Dynamics
(e.g. movement of
energy/heat and mass by
winds)

3. Surface processes
(effects of ice, snow,
vegetation, albedo, and
moisture interchanges)

(Source: McGuffie and Henderson-Sellers,

2005)
 Important 5 components to
understand climate models
◤

4. Chemistry
(Chemical composition of
atmosphere and interactions,
e.g. CO2 exchanges
between sea, land and
atmosphere)

5. Resolution in both time

and space
(the timestep of the
model and horizontal &
vertical scales resolved)
Note: Model setup &
programming language and
platform
(Source: McGuffie and Henderson-Sellers, 2005)
 Basic 4 types of climate model
1. Energy
◤
balance models (EBMs)
(Surface temperature as a function of the energy balance on
the Earth)

2. One-dimensional radiative-convective (RC) models

(the temperature profile based on the modelling of radiative
and a ‘convective adjustment’ which depend on the
predetermined lapse rate )
3. Dimensionally-constrained models
(Statistical dynamical (SD) models, which deal with surface
processes and dynamics)

4. Global climate models (GCMs)

(3-dimensional nature of the atmosphere and ocean is
incorporated)

(Source: McGuffie and Henderson-Sellers, 2005)

 ◤
Important Laws

Law of conservation of energy

▪ In physics and chemistry, the law of conservation of energy
states that the total energy of an isolated system remains
constant; it is said to be conserved over time
Law of conservation of momentum
▪ The conservation of momentum states that, within some
problem domain, the amount of momentum remains
constant; momentum is neither created nor destroyed, but
only changed through the action of forces as described by
Newton's laws of motion
 ◤
Important Laws

Law of conservation of mass

▪ In physics and chemistry, the law of conservation of
mass or principle of mass conservation states that for any
system closed to all transfers of matter and energy, the mass of
the system must remain constant over time, as the system's
mass cannot change, so the quantity can neither be added nor
be removed. Therefore, the quantity of mass is conserved over
time
Ideal gas law
▪ The state of an amount of gas is determined by its pressure,
volume, and temperature. The modern form of the equation
relates these simply in two main forms. The temperature used in
the equation of state is an absolute temperature
 GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS (GCMS)
◤
It is a complex mathematical
representation of the major climate
system components (atmosphere,
land surface, ocean, and sea ice),
and their interactions.
Earth’s energy balance between
the four components is the key to
long-term climate prediction.
𝐷𝑣
𝜌 𝐷𝑡 = 𝛻𝑝 + 𝜇𝛻2𝑣
+𝑓
Where,
“𝜌” is a density;
“𝑣” is a flow speed;
“𝑡” is a time;
“𝑝” is a pressure;
“𝜇” is a dynamic viscosity; and
“𝑓” is a body forces (Source: McGuffie and Henderson-Sellers, 2005; Spencer, 2009)
 GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS (GCMS)
◤

Fundamental 4-laws considered in

GCMs
1. Conservation of energy
(the first law of thermodynamics)
i.e. Input energy = Increase in internal
energy
+ Work done

2. Conservation of
momentum (Newton’s
second law of motion)
i.e. Force = Mass × Acceleration

(Source: McGuffie and Henderson-Sellers, 2005; Islam, 2013)

 GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS (GCMS)
◤
Fundamental 4-laws considered in
GCMs
3. Conservation of mass
(the continuity equation)

4. Ideal gas law

(an approximation to the equation of state –
atmosphere only)
i.e. Pressure × Volume ∞ Absolute temperature ×
Density
(Source: McGuffie and Henderson-Sellers, 2005;
 ◤
GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS
(GCMS)
Fundamental 4-laws considered in
GCMs
There are seven primitive equations
for all models, with the prognostic
equations being energy
(temperature), moisture (water), the
wind components (u, v, w), mass (air
density, and pressure).

(Source: McGuffie and Henderson-Sellers, 2005;

 ◤
GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS
(GCMS)
Types of GCMs
[Link] (Atmospheric GCM)
Atmosphere and impose
sea surface temperature

[Link] (Ocean GCM)

Global sea patterns

[Link] (Atmosphere and

Ocean GCM) or CGCM
(Coupled GCM)
Coupled atmosphere-ocean
models
(e.g. CCSM4, HadCM3, GFDL)
(Source: McGuffie and Henderson-Sellers, 2005;
 REGIONAL
◤
CLIMATE MODELS (RCMs)

RCMs are tools used to achieve high-resolution climate data

from coarsely
resolved GCMs.

(Source: Feser et al., 2011;

 ◤
REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELS
(RCMs)
The added value of the RCMs in comparison with
the GCMs
❖ Higher detail for mountain ranges
and coastal zones
❖ More detail on differing
vegetation coverage and soil
characteristics
❖ A description of smaller-scale
atmospheric processes

To produce model output that is

closer to the real heterogeneity
condition (Physiographic details) of
the nature.
(Source: Evans, 2012; Feser et al., 2011; Wang
◤
 INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON
◤ CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
Development of Climate
Model
❖ Mid-1970s
❖ Mid-1980s
❖ First Assessment Report 1990
(FAR)
❖ Second Assessment Report 1995
(SAR)
❖ Third Assessment Report 2001
(TAR)
❖ Fourth Assessment Report 2007
(AR4)
❖ Fifth Assessment Report 2013
(AR5)
(Source: IPCC,
◤
◤ AR6 Synthesis Report: Climate Change 2023
[Link]

How 2023 Broke Our Climate Models with Neil deGrasse Tyson & Gavin Schmidt
[Link]
Google Earth Timelapse shows how planet has changed in past 37 years
[Link]
Our Ocean | Timelapse in Google Earth
[Link]