CHAPTER - TWO

TRANSPORT PLANNING AND

MODELING
(TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING)

By: sema .A. (MSc)

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2.1. TRANSPORT PLANNING
Introduction
Planning Process
Elements of Transport Planning

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 Introduction

• Transport projects are normally justified for the

improvements in:
Traffic flow and safety
Savings in energy consumption and travel time
Economic growth,
Increased accessibility, etc…

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 Introduction (Cont...)
• Some transport projects, however, may be selected for
other reasons:
 To stimulate employment in a particular region
 To compete with other cities or states for prestige
 To attract industry
 To respond to pressures from political constituency

• In some instances transport projects may not be selected

because of opposition from those who would be
adversely affected by the project.

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 Introduction (Cont...)
What is Transport Planning?
• A rational way of furnishing unbiased information (about the
effects of the proposed transport project on the community and
on its expected users) to decision makers.
• Is a process that develops information to help make decisions on
the future development and management of transportation
systems
• It balances the need for new facilities with future demand,
minimum environmental impact and available fund
• Focuses on developing long range (15-30 years) transportation
plans.
• Different Scales of transport planning: National > Regional > 5
 Introduction (Cont...)
Helps to Create
• High quality transportation facilities and services
• Reasonable cost
• Minimal environmental impact
• Enhance economic activity
Addresses Problems
• Travel demand alternatives for congestion reduction
• Land use/transportation coordination
• Fuel reduction measures
• Air quality measures
• Safety measures
• Economic development/redevelopment activity 6
 Transportation Planning Process

Fig 2.1:
Transportation 7

Planning Process
 Transportation Planning Process (Cont...)
The simplified planning process can be summarized as
follows:
• A problem is a deviation from expected or desired performance.
Goals and objectives define the expected or desired performance.
• Solution generation is a process that produces regional goals and
objectives, the nature of the identified problems, the nature of the
existing transportation system and regional preferences, as much as
it reflects technical and economic functionality.
• When the set of alternative solutions is identified, the process enters
solution analysis where each alternative is subject to formal
technical analysis (such as transport models) to assess resulting
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performance.
 Transportation Planning Process (Cont...)

• The estimated performance of each generated alternative is then

evaluated using d/t measures of performance (MOPs). These MOPs
describe travel times, volumes served, speed on links &
intersections, associated impacts (like air quality or noise). The MOPs
must also be coupled with estimated cost and standard economic
analysis techniques to assess the relative overall performance and
cost of each alternative.

• Once preferred alternative is selected for implementation, thus

entering programming & project planning processes. Once the
selected option is implemented, the overall system must be
monitored to assess (a) real-world performance, (b) the degree that
the problem has been addressed, (c) the emergence of additional 9

performance problems.
 Elements of Transport Planning

Fig 2.2: Elements

of Transport 10

Planning
 Facility Inventory
• Involves inventory of:
– the existing transport services,
– the available facilities and their conditions
– location of routes and schedules
– maintenance and operation costs
– system capacity and existing traffic volumes, speed,
delay, …
– property and equipment
– etc.

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 Example – Facility Inventory
• Road X
– is a major arterial system
– Has n lanes of widths w1, …, wn
– It has a capacity of C
– Average flow is q veh/hr, speed is d sec
– Has 4 signalised junctions and 6 priority junctions
– Lanes are marked, ETC…
• Travel time on Route Y is t sec
• Such data could be coded into GIS system & should be
updated regularly!
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 Socio-economic and Land-use Data
• Transport plan focuses on the provision of transport
facilities and services to meet the existing or expected
demand for travel.
• Transport is a DERIVED DEMAND: trips are taken to
accomplish some activity at the destination
• Transport Planning should be related to the types of
activities in a region (i.e. land use, e.g. schools, shopping
centres and central business districts, residential area, … )
and the characteristics of the trip maker (e.g. income, HH
size, cars in HH, education, … ) 13
 Goals & Objectives
• Goals are general statements that indicate desired ultimate
achievement of a transport plan
Example:
– “Meet the mobility needs of the population”
– “Provide enhanced economic development opportunities”
• Objectives are more specific statements that indicate the
means by which these goals will be achieved
Examples:
– Reduce congestion, protect the environment, avoid accidents,
improve accessibility
– E.g. ”Reduce traffic accidents with 20% by the year of 2020”
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 Goals & Objectives (Cont...)

• Identification of goals and objectives is

critical in that they define the evaluation
criteria (measure of effectiveness) that will
be used later in the planning process to
asses the relative impact of alternative
projects and strategies.

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 Possible Objectives 1

 Economic Efficiency: maximizing the net benefits in

resource terms, of the provision of transport (e.g.
faster travel time net of increased noise and pollution).

 Environmental Pollution: reducing the impact of

transport facilities, and their use, on the environment
of both users and non-users. Typical impacts could be:
noise, atmospheric pollution, severance, loss of
intrinsically valuable objects (flora & fauna, ancient
monuments, …)
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 Possible Objectives 2

 Safety: concerned with reducing the loss of life,

injuries, and damage to property resulting from
transport accidents
 Accessibility (“ease of reaching”): is concerned
with increasing the ability with which people in
different locations, and with differing availability of
transport can reach different types of facility. It
can simply be measured in terms of the time
spent travelling.
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 Possible Objectives 3
 Sustainability: “development that meets the needs of
the present without compromising the ability of future
generations to meet their own needs”
• Considers the trade-off (a balance achieved b/n two desirable but
b/n efficiency and accessibility
incompatible features; a compromise)
on the one hand & environment and safety on the other

 Economic Generation: involves reinforcing the land-use

plans of the area. It could be by
• just providing new infrastructure and service OR
• by enhancing and improving the image of the area.
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 Possible Objectives 4

 Equity: is concerned with ensuring that the

benefits of transport strategies are reasonably
equally distributed or are focused particularly on
those with special needs (e.g. low income
residents, elderly and disabled people, …)
 Finance: is defined as minimising the financial
outlay (expenditure)

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 System Deficiencies and
Opportunities
• Tries to answer questions like:
 Where do problems exist?
 Are these problems existing now or will occur in the
future?
 Are there opportunities of better using the existing
transport system

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 Develop and Analyse Alternatives
• Different strategies or alternatives are assessed in terms of
demand, level of service, revenue, environmental pollution,
etc…
• Consideration is given to a variety of ideas, designs, locations,
& system configurations that might provide solutions to the
problems.
• Includes preliminary feasibility studies, data gathering, field
testing and cost estimating to determine the practicability and
financial feasibility of the alternatives being proposed.
Example – Improvement of highways
– New construction
– Adding new lanes 21
– Improving traffic controls through signals, signs etc
 Evaluate Alternatives

• Evaluations should be based on the objectives set

and should be based on appropriate indicators for
the stated objectives
 In the “Developed World” it has become to place
money values on casualties and accidents of differing
severity
• Efficiency: Vehicle operating costs, Travel time
savings, …
• Safety: “Value of Life”
• … (table on next slide) 22
 Suggested indicators for different transport policy objectives

Objectives Indicators
Delays for vehicles (by type) at junctions, Delays for pedestrians at road crossings,
Economic
Time and money costs of journeys actually undertaken, Variability in journey time (by
efficiency type of journey), Costs of operating different transport services
Environmental Noise levels, Vibration, Levels of different local pollutants, Visual intrusion, Townscape
protection quality (subjective)
Personal injury accidents by user type per unit exposure (for links, junctions,
Safety networks), Insecurity (subjective)
Activities (by type) within a given time and money cost for a specified origin and mode
Accessibility Weighted average time and money cost to all activities of a given type from a specified
origin by a specified mode
Environmental safety and accessibility indicators as above CO2 emissions for the area
Sustainability as a whole, Fuel consumption for the area as a whole
Economic
Environmental and accessibility indicators as above, by area and economic sector
regeneration
Operating costs and revenues for different modes, Costs and revenues for parking and
Finance other facilities, Tax revenue from vehicle use
Equity Indicators as above, considered separately for different impact groups

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 Implement Plan
• Once the transport project is selected, a detailed design
phase is begun, in which each of the components of the
facility is specified. For transportation facility, this involves
physical location, geometric dimension, and structural
configuration.
• Design plans are produced that can be used to estimate
the cost of building the project. When the construction firm
is selected these plans will be the bases on which the
project will be built.
• In case of the number of projects exceed the available fund
during implementation, projects are prioritised based on 24
Monitor System Performance
• Need
– To identify where improvements could be made
• It incorporates the results of
– Transport management system
– Pavement management system
– Bridge management system
– Safety management system
– Public transport system
– Inter-modal management system
– Congestion management system 25
2.2 TRANSPORT POLICY
Introduction
Transport Policy Formulation Process
Policy Instruments/Measures

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 TRANSPORT POLICY-INTRODUCTION

• Transport policy is a guiding principle (plan of

action) that influences how the transport system
should behave to achieve desired outcomes and
avoid transport problems.
• Examples of such policies may include:
– road expansion plans,
– transit system priorities,
– fuel tax,
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– emission limits etc.
 Transport Policy and Strategic Planning

• Policy objective is a statement of a desired end-state which

ranges from the very general, such as a successful urban
economy or a high standard quality of life, to the very
specific, such as avoiding pollution levels above a specified
threshold.
• Objectives in transport policy can be categorized into four
classes:
I. Statements of Vision
II. Higher level objectives
III. Quantified objectives
IV. Solution-specific ‘objectives
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 Transport Policy and Strategic Planning (Cont...)
I. Statements of Vision:
• The most general specifications often appear in
Statements of Vision: broad indications of the type of
area which politicians or the public wish to see.
• Serve to identify long- term goals to which more
detailed transport policy objectives can contribute.
• These broad statements often SAY NOTHING about
transport itself: instead they raise the question: ”how
best can transport help to realize this vision?’.
E.g. ”A sustainable future”, ”Opportunities for all”, ”Maintain
the cities role as a regional center”, ”Environmental
improvement”
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 Transport Policy and Strategic Planning (Cont...)

II. Higher level objectives

• Sometimes referred to as aims or goals: identify qualities of
transport system, or its side effects, which can be improved
as a means of realizing the vision (I).
E.g. ”Accessibility within and outside the city”, ”Reduce
congestion”, ”Avoid accidents”
• Sufficient to indicate that the appraisal procedures should
predict and assess the level of congestion, noise, pollution,
accidents and access.
• Provide a means of assessing the relative performance of
different strategies in reducing pollution or accidents.
• Do not, however, indicate whether a particular solution is
adequate in its impact. To do this more specific, quantified30
 Transport Policy and Strategic Planning (Cont...)
III. Quantified Objectives
• Quantified objectives may indicate a requirement.
• Provide a clear basis for assessing performance of the strategy, but
they do require careful definition if the specified thresholds are to be
realistic ( avoid too ambitious objective).
• Provide a direct basis for identifying problems, for current or future
conditions, on the basis that a problem occurs whenever the
quantified objective is not met.
E.g. ”Reduce traffic accidents with 20% by the year of XYZ”
“Avoid residents without cars being more than 30 minutes from the
nearest bus station”
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 Transport Policy and Strategic Planning (Cont...)
IV. Solution-specific ‘objectives’
• Specifies solutions within the objectives and may lead to an overall
strategy which is less appropriate to the area’s needs.
• It is important to avoid specifying solutions within the objectives,
since this constrains the search for solutions, and may lead to an
overall strategy which is less appropriate to the area’s needs.
• Where politicians, or interest groups, wish to introduce general
objectives such as to impose physical restrictions on car use, it is
preferable to ask why this solution is being proposed and what it is
designed to achieve. Answer to such questions should lead to clearer
specification of the true underlying objectives.
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 Transport Policy Formulation Process

In practice, there are 2 types of policy formulation

approaches:

1. Objective-led strategy formulation

2. Problem oriented approach

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 Transport policy: formulation process (Cont...)
1. Objective-led strategy formulation
• Broad (detailed) objectives are first specified. These are
then used to identify problems by assessing the extent to which
current or predicted future conditions fail to meet the
objectives.

• Offers a logical basis for proposing solutions, and also for

assessing any proposals offered by others.

• Ensures that the appraisal of alternatives is conducted in a

logical, consistent, and comprehensive way against the full
set of objectives.
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 Transport policy: formulation process (Cont...)

Fig 2.3: Objective-led

strategy formulation 35
 Transport policy: formulation process (Cont...)
2. Problem oriented approach
• Starts by defining types of problem, and to use data
on current (or predicted future) conditions to identify
when and where these problems occur.
• The objectives are implicit in the specified problems,
and may never actually be stated.
• Starts at the second box in the Objective-led strategy
formulation flow chart (Fig: 2.3 & 2.4)
• Merit = Being easily understood, Demerit =
Dependent on developing a full list of potential
problems at the outset. 36
 Transport policy: formulation process (Cont...)

Fig 2.4: Problem oriented

approach 37
 Transport policy: formulation process (Cont...)
Recap (the two approaches)
• The problem-oriented approach starts by identifying problems and
developing solutions to them.

• The objective-led approach defines problems in terms of specified

objectives.

• Both methods converge at the stage of problem identification and

then use these as a basis for identifying solutions and strategies (Fig:
23 & 2.4).
• In either case it is essential to be comprehensive in the list of types of problem.
This may be difficult to achieve with the problem-oriented planning approach in
which there is no pre-defined set of objectives to prompt the question 'how 38do
we know that we have a problem?‘
 Policy Instruments/Measures
• The means by which the objectives can be achieved, and
problems overcome.
• Are tools which can be used to overcome problems and
achieve objectives. Could be classified as follows:
1. Infrastructures
2. Management
3. Information
4. Pricing
5. Land use
6. Attitudinal and behavioral measures
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 Policy Instruments/Measures (Cont...)
1. Infrastructure measures
 Provision for car:
- New road construction
- New car parks
 Provision for public transport:
- Terminals, bus-stops, Park-and-ride
- Conventional bus (with different sizes/markets) and rail
provision
- Light rail
- Guided bus
 Provision for cyclist and pedestrians:
- Cycle routes
- Pedestrian areas
 Provision for freight:
- Lorry parks
- Transshipment facilities 40
- Encouragement of other modes (rail-borne freight, water,
 Policy Instruments/Measures (Cont...)
2. Management measures
 Provision for car: - Conventional traffic management
- Urban traffic control (UTC)
- Advanced transport telematics (ATT)
- Accident remedial measures
- Traffic calming measures
- Physical/ Regulatory restrictions on car use
- Parking controls
- Car sharing
 Provision for - Bus priorities
public transport: - High occupancy vehicle lanes (HOVL)
- Bus (and rail) service levels
- Bus service management measures
 Provision for - Cycle lanes and priorities
cyclist and - Cycle parking
pedestrians: - Pedestrian crossing facilities
 Provision for - Lorry routes and bans
freight: - City logistic regulation
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 Policy Instruments/Measures (Cont...)
3. Information provision
 Provision for car: - Conventional direction signing
- Variable message signs
- Real-time driver information systems and route
guidance
- Parking information systems
- Telecommunications
- Public awareness campaigns
 Provision for - Service information
public transport: - Real-time passenger information
- Operation information systems
 Provision for - Static direction signs
cyclist and - Cycle parking facility information
pedestrians: - Cyclist and pedestrian information at crossing
facilities
 Provision for - Fleet management systems
freight: - City logistic information 42
 Policy Instruments/Measures (Cont...)
4. Pricing measures
 Provision for car: - Vehicle ownership tax
- Fuel taxes
- Parking charges
- Congestion charging
 Provision for - Fare levels
public transport: - Fare structures
(Concessionary fares for special needs
persons)
 Provision for - (rarely an issue)
cyclist and
pedestrians:
 Provision for - (as for cars, and with progressive taxes
concerning
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freight: vehicle size/weight)
 Policy Instruments/Measures (Cont...)
5. Land use measures

 Application to different modes (usually not mode-specific)

 Types of measures: Flexible working hours

Development densities
Development within transport
corridors
Development mix
Travel reduction ordinances
Parking standards

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CHAPTER 3: Transportation Modeling

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 Forecasting Travel Demand
• Travel demand is expressed as the number of persons or
vehicles per unit time that can be expected to travel on a
given segment of transportation system under a set of given
land use, socio-economic, and environmental conditions.
• Methods range from simple extrapolation of observed trends
to a sophisticated computerised process involving extensive
data gathering and mathematical modelling.
• Forecasts of travel demand are used to establish the loads
on future or modified transportation system alternatives.

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 Demand Forecast - Types
A. Urban Travel Demand Forecasts √
• Requires data that give insight into characteristics of the
trip maker (age, gender, income, mode of travel, …)
collected using Household Interview & Roadside Interview
Surveys. Such data can be used as they are
(disaggregated) OR can be aggregated into zones
B. Intercity Travel Demand Forecasts:
• Data that are used in this situation are generally
aggregated to a greater extent than for urban travel
forecasting.
E.g.: City Population, Avg. City Income, Travel Time (or Cost of 47
Travel) b/n cities, …
Urban Travel Demand Forecasts

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 Factors Influencing Travel Demand
• Three major factors affecting the demand for urban
travels are:
1) Land-use characteristics: The amount of traffic generated @
specific area of land depends on how the land is used
– Shopping centres
– Residential complexes
– Industrial
– Recreational places
– Office Building
2) Socio-Economic Characteristics: (Family size, educational level,
income, employment, age , gender, vehicle ownership)
3) Availability of Transport Facilities & Level of Service:
Travelers are sensitive to the level of service provided by alternative
transport modes. When deciding to travel at all or which mode to use49
 Basic Steps in Travel Demand Forecast

a) Defining the study area

• The study area is defined and subdivided into a number of
small units called traffic analysis zones (TAZ) or simply
zones.
• Zones are modeled as if all their attributes and properties
were concentrated in a single point called the zone
centroid.
• The centroids are connected to the nearest road junction or
rail station by centroid connectors.

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 Basic Steps in Travel Demand Forecast (Cont...)
ZONING
• Guidelines for selecting zones (Zoning Criteria)
– Homogenous socio economic characteristics, especially in land use,
popul’n etc.
– Minimum intra zonal trips (trip within a zone)
– Follow physical, political and historical boundaries: should match other
administrative divisions, particularly census zones.
– Zones should not be defined within other zones
– The zones should generate & attract approximately equal trips, contain
approximately equal no. of house holds, population or area.
– Boundaries should match cordon and screen lines, but should not match
major roads.
– Size should be as smaller as possible so that the error in aggregation
caused by the assumption that all activities are concentrated at the zone51
centroids is minimum
 ZONING
External Cordon
Line
1
TAZ Productions Zone Boundary TAZ Attractions
1 12 3 1 9
2 19 2 2 12
5
3 35 3 4
4 4 4 38
5 5 4 8 5 45
6 10 7 6 6
7 13 7 4
8 22 6 8 2

River Railway

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Screen line
 Basic steps in Travel Demand Forecast (Cont...)
b) Data collection
• Provides information about the land use as well as socio economic
factors and the transport system which will serve as the basis for
developing travel demand estimates.
i) Road use study: determine the relative use of various parts of
the transportation network.
- Personal Interviews on: total mileage driven/month, frequency
of travel, choice of route,
ii) Transport Facility & Traffic Studies: Involve determination
of speeds, traffic volumes, travel times, delays, parking facilities,
parking habits, …
iii) Travel survey (O-D Surveys): Identifies Origins,
Destinations, Trip Purpose, Mode of Travel, Social & Economic 53
characteristics of trip maker, car-occupancy, type of good
 Basic steps in Travel Demand Forecast (Cont...)

• There are four general classification of travel survey (O-D

survey):
1. HH travel surveys
2. Road-side surveys
3. Modal surveys
4. Good measurement surveys

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 Basic steps in Travel Demand Forecast (Cont...)

1. House hold travel surveys

• HH travel surveys can be used in determination of:
– The number and characteristics of person trips or auto drive trips
made by residents with specified study area.
– Socio economic characteristics of the house hold.
• This can be accomplished by:
– Home interviews – more preferable than other survey methods for
its high response rates but are more expensive.
– Telephone interviews and
– Mail surveys.

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 Basic steps in Travel Demand Forecast (Cont...)

2. Road side surveys

• This method consists of stopping vehicles and asking drivers for the
information on trip origin, trip destination, trip purposes etc.
Vehicles passing the survey stations are counted but only sample of
drivers are interviewed.
• Other alternative ways of doing road side surveys include
– Handing out voluntary return post card questionnaires to drivers.
– Recording license no. and sending questionnaires to the address
of the owner.
• Road side surveys are especially useful in recording relatively long
and infrequent trips including trips made by persons outside the
survey area. 56
 Basic steps in Travel Demand Forecast (Cont...)

3. Modal Survey
• Travel surveying of the number of trips made by each mode in
transport system such as using private car, bus, rail, air transport,
walking etc.
• Typical modal survey is mostly undertaken by performing an
interview at passenger terminals.
4. Goods transport Survey
• It consists of interviewing drivers about origin-destination for
trucks, load type and weight, detail information on the transport
commodities.

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 The Components of Future Demand
Includes
 Existing traffic: the traffic that currently use the existing facility.
 Normal traffic growth: anticipated growth in regional population or
economy.
 Diverted traffic: a traffic that is diverted to the improved road due to
some factors.
 Converted traffic: change in mode of transport because of
conveniences.
 Change of destination: it is different from diverted traffic because
your destination is changed. It could be either due to the changes in
the land use or the transport facilities
 Development traffic: It is due to the development near by the road
which causes changes in the transport system of the road.
 Induced traffic: traffic that didn't previously exist in any form but 58
Transportation System Modelling

59
 Transportation System Modelling

A model …
• Is a simplified representation of the world/reality or the
representation of an object or system in another form.
• Ranging from a few simple equations to suites of computer
programs.
• Give insight into complex interrelationships in the real world and
to enable statements about what (most probably) will happen if
changes occur or put in that (part of) reality.

60
 Transportation System Modelling(Cont...)
What is a transport model ?
• A simplified mathematical representation of a small part of
the real world, aiming at describing and explaining travel
behavior and visualizing the amount and patterns of
transport.
• Mathematical models which on basis of data for land use
and the transport system, together with an understanding
of human behavior, calculate the resulting traffic on the
transport network.

61
 Transportation System Modelling(Cont...)
Purpose of a model…
• to help understand how the system works
• to help explain or communicate how the system works
• to help predict usage and performance of the system in various
possible future circumstances
• to help design or manage facilities and services
• to help evaluate possible investment options
• to help transport planners make reliable forecasts of traffic
demand (considering effects of changes in population, social & economic
conditions, & transport network)
– Reliable forecast of future traffic reduces a risk of building
facilities that will either receive little use or be prematurely
62
overloaded.
 Transportation System Modelling(Cont...)
Advantages of a model …
– help visualize and understand problems.
– important part of decision-making processes, allowing users
to explore and estimate the consequences of particular
policies, strategies or schemes on a desktop rather than in a
real network.
– facilitate the discussion of assumptions and are (can be),
therefore, more transparent than mental models.
– assist in the analysis of risk and uncertainty.
– models can provide important inputs to the appraisal process
which help foster the efficient and transparent allocation of 63
scarce resources.
 Transportation System Modelling(Cont...)
 Simple model example
 Oh = a + bEh + cCh
 Where:
– Oh = number of trips made by household h
– E h = number of employees(workers) in household h
– Ch = number of cars owned by household h
 Oh is the dependent variable
 Eh and Ch are independent or explanatory variables
 a, b and c are parameters

64
 Transportation System Modelling(Cont...)

Important to note:

“All models are wrong, but some are more

wrong than others”

65
Transport Modeling (Cont...)
Model formulation
process
­ Explain the given phenomenon-
Hypothesis
­ Sets of hypotheses will form the
theory.
­ Translation a theory into a
quantitative model with
quantifiable variables -conceptual
model.
­ Determine the numerical values of
the associated parameters from
the given data- calibration.
­ Testing and verification on another
set of data – validation
­ Applied 66
 Transport Modeling (Cont...)

 Prerequisite for transport modeling

I. Fundamental characteristics of transport problems,
II. Gather the necessary data and
III. Mathematical background
- Understand basic regression analysis
- Elementary statistics

67
 Transport Modeling (Cont...)
I. Fundamental characteristics of transport problems
• Transport services come with side effects
• The demand for transport is derived; it is not an end by itself.
• Transport demand takes place over space.
• Both transport demand and supply have very strong dynamic elements.
• Transport is a service and not a good.
• The transport system requires fixed assets and the mobile units.
• Transport infrastructure is lumpy
• Transport investment has an important political role.
• The demand for transport services is highly qualitative and
differentiated.

68
 Transport Modeling (Cont...)
• The demand for transport services is highly qualitative and differentiated
with time
Deman • The demand for transport is derived; it is not an end by itself.
d • Transport demand takes place over space.
• Both transport demand and supply have very strong dynamic elements.
(high demand at peak hour – flexible working hours, staggering working
times .. )
• Transport supply is a service and not a good. (it is not possible to stock
Suppl it, for example, to use it in times of higher demand)
y • The transport system requires fixed assets and the mobile units. (not
owned nor operated by the same person or company)
• Transport infrastructure is lumpy;
• Transport investment has an important political role.
69
•
 Transport Modeling (Cont...)
II. Data requirements for travel demand forecast
i. Socio-economic data: income level, vehicle
ownership, age, gender, family size, etc.
ii. Travel surveys: Origin-destination travel survey at
households and traffic data from cordon lines.
iii. Network data: road network, traffic signals, junctions
etc.
iv. Land use inventory: data on the housing density at
residential zones, establishments at commercial and
industrial zones.
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 Transport Modeling (Cont...)
 Data required for modeling is primarily collected
through surveys;
– Household survey: household trip, modes of transport , socio
economic data – for trip generation and modal split
– External cordon and Intercept surveys: Data on people
crossing the study area border – non-resident
– Travel Diary
– O-D survey
– Questionnaire
– In-house and Roadside Interviews 71
 The Four Step Model
 The most popular of the transport modeling approaches is the classic
Four-Step Model (FSM).
1. Trip generation:- forecasts the number of trips that will be made.
(predicts origins, destinations, and frequency)
2. Trip distribution:- determines where the trips will go.
3. Mode usage:- how the trips will be divided among the available
modes of travel (which mode to use)
4. Trip assignment:- predicts the routes that the trips will take,
resulting in traffic forecasts for the highway system and rider-ship
forecasts for the transit system. (which route to take)

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 Trip Generation

• Tries to answer questions like:

– How many trips will be generated from zone x (from a residential
area)?
– How many trips will be attracted to zone y (to a shopping
complex)?
• Rates of trip making is closely related to
– Intensity of land use (dwelling unit/[Link], employees/[Link], etc.)
– Character of land use (income , car ownership, etc.)
73

–
 Trip Generation (Cont...)
Trip Classification
• By Trip purpose
Factors affecting trip
– Trips to work
generation
– Trips to school or
college • Income
– Shopping trips • Car ownership
– Social & recreational • Household structure
trips
• Family size
– Other trips
• Value of land
• By Time of Day
– Peak hour • Residential density
– Off Peak hour • Accessibility
• By Person Type • Industrial & commericial services
– Income level
– Car ownership 74
 Trip generation methods
• Trip Generation Model
1. Category or Cross-classification (√)
2. Rate based activity unit
Assignment
3. Regression analysis
4. Growth factor
Category or Cross-Classification Analysis
– Is a method by which the relationship b/n socio-economic
variables & trip making is used to develop trip rates by cross
classification or categorization.
• Some thought should be given to:
– What dimensions to cross-classify (no of cars owned OR No. of
HH members) 75
 Trip Distribution

• The generated trips from

each zone is then
distributed to all other
zones based on the choice
of destination.
• The result of trip
distribution is a O-D matrix
that shows the number of
trips originating in the
study zone and where
these trips are destined to.
76
 Trip Distribution (Cont...)

• Trip Distribution  Gravity Model

Models The most widely used trip
1. Gravity Model (√) distribution model which states
2. Growth Factor Models that the number of trips between
(Reading Assignment) two zones is directly proportional
to the number of trip attraction
• Newton's Law of Universal
generated by the zone of
Gravitation destination and inversely
proportional to a function of time
 M1M 2  of travel between the two zones.
F1 2 G  
 RxR  77
 Gravity Model
• Modified gravity model • Tij = total trips from i to j
• Pi = total number of trips
produced in zone i, from trip
 AFK  generation
• Aj = number of trips attracted to
T P 
ij i
j ij ij
 zone j, from trip generation
 A F K  • Fij = impedance (usually inverse of
 j ij

ij
travel time), calculated
• Kij = socioeconomic adjustment
factor for pair ij
• The values of Pi and Aj have been determined in the trip generation
process. 78
 Gravity Model (Cont...)
• The sum of the trip production for all zones must be equal to the sum
of trip attraction for all zones: If not, calculate the adjusted attraction
factor using the following formula
A j
Where:
A  jk A j ( k  1)
 Ajk = adjusted attraction factor for attraction zone
C j ( k  1)
(column) j, iteration k
 Ajk = Aj when k=1
 Cjk = actual attraction (column) total for zone j,
GivenA
Aj @ kiteration  xGivenA iteration k
ComputedA
 Aj = desired attraction total for attraction zone
(column) j
 j = attraction zone number, j=1, 2, 3…..n 79
 Modal Split/ Mode Choice
• A model to predict the percentage of individuals
who will choose one mode over others for making a
particular trip

• Mode choice is affected by:

– Type of trip [trip purpose (work, leisure); time of
day; …
– Characteristics of the trip maker (income, age,
car-ownership)
– Characteristics of the mode (relative travel time,
reliability, comfort, price) 80
 Modal Split/ Mode Choice (Cont...)
• The Utility of a mode is the “satisfaction” a user derives
from using a certain mode of transport. It is a linear
combination of cost attributes a transport mode presents
to its user

• Mode utilities are attributable:

– to the user (time, price, …),
– to the service characteristics of a mode (reliability,
safety, comfort),
E.g. U = w – a (Travel Time) - b (Price) +g (Comfort)
81
 Modal Split/ Mode Choice (Cont...)
Method used
The Logit Model (Logistic Regression Model)

UA Where:
e
P ( A)  P(A) = the probability of choosing

 e Ui mode A
Ui = utility of any mode i
UA = utility of mode A

 Note that the method is based on one individual’s Utility from the
different modes
82
 Traffic Assignment
• The process of allocating given set of trip
interchanges to the specified transportation system(or
specific route)
• Involves computing one or more optimal routes (usually
shortest route) between each origin and destination
and distributing travel demand over these routes

 Route Selection Rules

Most rules are based on the idea that a traveller will
choose the route which is expected to offer the lowest
perceived cost
83
 Traffic Assignment (Cont...)

Main
Which Considerations
route do I • Cost
need to • Travel Time
take? • Others
Route -1

Route -2
O D
Home
Route -3 84
 Traffic Assignment (Cont...)

Models: The types of traffic assignment models are:

1. User Equilibrium Assignment (UE)
2. System optimization (SO)
3. Stochastic Traffic Assignment
4. Incremental Assignment
5. All or Nothing Assignment Assignmen
6. Capacity Restraint Assignment t

85
 Traffic Assignment (Cont...)
• The final step in traditional
planning model (FSM)
• Determines which routes will
be used and how much
traffic can be expected on
each route
• Requires the following data
– Estimated number of motor
vehicle trips between zones
– Available routes between zones
and travel time on each route
– Decision criteria by which
users will select route
86
 Traffic Assignment (Cont...)
• Route choice presents a classic Route Choice Behavior
equilibrium problem • Route Choice Behavior is often
– Route choice decisions are a modeled based up on Wardrop’s
function of travel times Principles:
– Travel times are determined by ­ 1st Principle: Users choose the
traffic flow route that minimizes their own
travel time
– Traffic flow is a product of route ¨ User Equilibrium (UE)
choice decision
• Mathematical relations between ­ 2nd Principle: Users distribute
route travel time and route themselves on the network in such
a way that the average travel time
traffic flow is needed  Highway for all users is minimized
Performance Function ¨ System Optimization(SO)
87
 Traffic Assignment (Cont...)
User Equilibrium (UE)
• When determining traveler route choice, two
important assumptions are usually made:
­ Travelers will select a route on the basis travel times
­ Travelers know the travel times that would be encountered on
all available routes
• Given this information, the travel time between two
zones on all “used” routes will be equal
­ Under UE, travelers cannot improve their travel times by
unilaterally changing routes

88
 Traffic Assignment (Cont...)
System Optimization (SO)
• Theoretically, a single route choice strategy is possible that results in the
lowest possible number of total vehicle hours of travel for some origin-
destination traffic flow

89
The End
90